CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ) forum
Enter 37550
Take Profit 1 3753
Take Profit 2 3757
Take Profit 3 3760
Stop loss 3748
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Gold Market Analysis and Trading Strategy for September 26, 2025
I. Fundamental Analysis
Key data released on Thursday showed that the final US Q2 Real GDP annualized rate was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, representing the fastest growth pace in nearly two years and a significant improvement over the contraction seen in the first quarter. This data reinforces the resilience of the US economy, indicating a transition to a relatively stable growth phase after the initial rebound from the pandemic shock.
The primary driver for the upward revision was robust consumer spending. Meanwhile, market focus shifts to the Core PCE Price Index for August (the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge), due for release during the US session today. Economists expect the year-on-year increase to remain close to 3%. Persistent high inflationary pressures will significantly limit the Fed's room for interest rate cuts and could even reignite discussions about potential rate hikes.
Core Fundamental Logic:
Bullish for USD / Bearish for Gold: Strong economic growth data and persistent inflation collectively support the US Dollar Index and push US Treasury yields higher. This increases the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset gold, exerting downward pressure on its price.
Market Expectation: The market is digesting the narrative of "a strong US economy leading to prolonged higher interest rates." Today's US session PCE data is crucial for validating this narrative. If the data exceeds expectations, gold could face increased selling pressure.
II. Technical Analysis
From a daily chart perspective, gold prices faced resistance again after touching around $3761.5 during the Asian session, confirming strong selling pressure in that area. The price is currently testing a key support level at $3717 (the low of the previous consolidation platform).
Key Support: $3717. If the price finds support and stabilizes at this level, it could potentially form a new consolidation platform.
Key Resistance: $3745, followed by the $3760 - $3762 zone. As long as the price remains unable to break above this resistance band decisively, the overall technical structure leans bearish.
Scenario Projection:
Bearish Scenario: If the price decisively breaks below the $3717 support, the downside could extend towards the $3700 psychological level, and potentially lower.
Range-bound Scenario: If the price finds support above (or briefly dips below) $3717 and rebounds, but fails to break above $3745, it will likely continue oscillating within a narrow range (e.g., $3720 - $3745).
III. Today's Trading Strategy
Considering the bearish-leaning fundamentals and technically pressured structure, the primary strategy for today is recommended to be selling on rallies, while considering bounce opportunities from key support levels as a secondary approach.
Primary Strategy (Short on Rally):
Entry Zone: $3760 - $3770 range.
Target: Aim for $3717, with a further target at $3700 if broken.
Stop Loss: Place above $3775 (invalidating the strategy if key resistance is decisively broken).
Secondary Strategy (Long at Support - Cautious):
Entry Condition: Upon the first touch or a brief dip below $3717, look for clear signs of stabilization and rebound (e.g., a long lower wick on the 15-minute or 1-hour chart).
Target: Short-term bounce towards $3735 - $3740 area.
Stop Loss: Place below $3705.
IV. Risk Warning
Key Focus: The US August Core PCE Price Index data released on Friday. If the data comes in significantly lower than expected, it could ease concerns about high interest rates, triggering a short-covering rally in gold and leading to a rapid price increase.
Position Management: Market volatility may increase ahead of major data releases. Ensure to trade with light positions and implement strict stop-losses.
Disclaimer: The above analysis represents personal views only and does not constitute any investment

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Currently, the gold market is trading near a key resistance level. If this level breaks, we can expect further upside movement. However, traders should remain cautious as a rejection from this level is also possible.
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