GOLDCFD trade ideas
10/1: 3900 in Sight, Watch Support at 3826–3814Today marks the 76th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. The whole nation is celebrating. In previous years, a military parade would be held on this day, but this year it was brought forward to September 3rd.
Back to the market—yesterday, gold surged to 3870 before pulling back to around 3790, and today it has once again returned to 3870, reaching a new high. From a technical perspective, a nearly $100 rally suggests that some correction is due. Current support is mainly at the 3848–3842 zone, with stronger support at 3826–3814.
On the daily chart, this round of the rally is likely approaching its end today. However, the overall structure remains healthy, meaning a pullback followed by another leg up is quite possible. On the weekly timeframe, the bullish trend is not yet finished, so gold still has room to make new highs in the medium term.
Now that the price has risen near 3875, testing 3900 is within reach. That level will likely act as a new psychological barrier, so a pullback from there would be normal and could present trading opportunities.
📌 Trading plan for today:
If gold rises to the 3900 area → consider short positions.
If it pulls back to the 3840 area → look for long opportunities.
Bulls are going wild. Is a pullback an opportunity?The gold market has recently demonstrated a strong, one-sided upward trend. Gold prices surged again on Tuesday, reaching a new all-time high, confirming the bulls' absolute dominance. The early Asian session low has become a key intraday turning point. As long as prices hold above this level, the short-term bullish trend will persist. Trading strategies should prioritize buying on dips.
Analysis of multiple technical charts indicates a bullish trend. The monthly chart indicates a solid long-term uptrend; the weekly and daily charts are also trading above key support levels, providing support for a medium-term upward trend. The four-hour chart is particularly crucial. After effectively breaking through resistance last Friday, short-term bullish momentum is strong. On the whole, the strategy should continue to follow the trend. The European session should focus on entering the market at key support and resistance levels. The focus on the lower side is the 3850-3840 support line. The short-term target on the upper side can be seen in the 3890-3900 area.
Operational Strategy:
Short at 3875-3880, stop loss at 3890, profit target at 3855.
Long at 3855-3850, stop loss at 3840, target at 3880-3890.
Gold 1H – Will Rejection at 3904 Trigger Deeper Pullback?Gold on the 1H timeframe is approaching a premium supply zone between 3904–3902, where a rejection could spark a short-term retracement. Market structure shows multiple BOS on the way up, but the latest move may invite engineered liquidity sweeps into nearby demand levels. A defined discount demand area rests at 3811–3813, offering potential for continuation if price reacts positively.
From the macro side, today’s headlines highlight steady U.S. dollar strength as traders weigh inflation risks and upcoming Federal Reserve commentary. Meanwhile, geopolitical concerns in energy markets are sustaining safe-haven flows, contributing to intraday volatility in gold.
This setup aligns with a tactical two-sided strategy: fade rejections at premium supply while being ready to scale into dips around the defined demand zone.
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📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔴 SELL GOLD 3904–3902 (SL 3911): Premium supply area, with downside targets at 3890 → 3870 → 3850.
• 🟢 BUY GOLD 3811–3813 (SL 3804, Demand Zone): Discount demand aligned with BOS, with upside targets at 3840 → 3855 → 3870+.
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📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔻 Sell Setup – Supply Rejection (3904–3902)
• Entry: 3904–3902
• Stop Loss: 3911
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3890
TP2: 3870
TP3: 3850
🔺 Buy Setup – Demand Mitigation (3811–3813)
• Entry: 3811–3813
• Stop Loss: 3804
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3840
TP2: 3855
TP3: 3870+
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🔑 Strategy Note
Gold remains volatile as it tests premium supply. Expect engineered sweeps before direction becomes clear. With the dollar firm and Fed commentary pending, intraday setups favor:
• Fading supply rejections at 3904–3902.
• Buying dips into 3811–3813 if liquidity is cleared.
Gold Market Analysis & Trading Plan
📌 Macro Context
Gold prices continue to receive support from declining US interest rates and a weakening USD.
The DXY index dropped 0.27% to 97.91, reducing the strength of the greenback.
The 10-year US Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.141%.
Real yield decreased to 1.761%, providing a boost for gold as the opportunity cost of holding gold is lower.
These factors strengthen the upward trend, although in the short term, gold may experience adjustments to attract more capital inflow.
📈 Technical Structure
The H4 chart shows gold maintaining a strong uptrend, however, the RSI has moved deeply into the overbought zone.
⚖️ Trading Scenarios
🔴 Scenario 1 – Sell Scalping
Entry: 3,879 – 3,882
SL: 3,890
TP: 3,865 → 3,850 → 3,836 → 3,810
👉 Suitable for short-term orders when price reacts at high resistance.
🟢 Scenario 2 – Buy Zone 1
Entry: 3,805 – 3,808
SL: 3,799
TP: 3,822 → 3,840 → 3,873 → 3,898
👉 Buy in line with the main trend when the price adjusts to the nearby support zone.
🟢 Scenario 3 – Buy Zone 2 (Deeper Support)
Entry: 3,745 – 3,742
SL: 3,735
TP: 3,765 → 3,780 → 3,798 → 3,820 → 3,850
👉 This is a value buying zone if the market adjusts strongly, suitable for short swings.
📊 Summary
The major trend for gold remains bullish, supported by a weakening USD and declining US yields.
In the short term, be aware of potential technical adjustments from the 3,879 – 3,882 resistance.
Priority Strategy: Buy on dips, Sell only for quick scalping.
📌 Note: Strict capital management, adhere to stop-loss to preserve profits when unexpected US news volatility occurs.
Gold and the Week of Rock & Roll – Key Events Driving the MarketHello friend,
Gold traders should brace for a volatile week. I usually avoid labelling gold as strictly “bullish” or “bearish,” but two macro events are dominating sentiment and could set the tone for sharp moves:
🔹 U.S. Debt Ceiling & Government Shutdown Risk
The debt ceiling was raised this summer to ~$41.1 trillion (July 2025 legislation), so there is no immediate ceiling vote pending.
However, September 30, 2025 marks the funding deadline for the U.S. government. If Congress fails to pass appropriations, a partial government shutdown could occur, reigniting concerns about fiscal stability.
Any sign that Treasury’s “extraordinary measures” are being stretched or that funding uncertainty lingers may quickly trigger safe-haven demand for gold.
🔹 Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations
Reports today suggest progress toward a U.S.-mediated framework for a phased ceasefire and hostage-related measures.
A confirmed truce in Gaza would likely reduce geopolitical risk premiums, applying downward pressure on gold, particularly given the market’s overbought conditions.
📊 Technical Levels to Watch
Resistance: 3865 – 3890 – 3913
Support: 3815 – 3792 – 3770 – 3750 – 3717 – 3680
⚖️ What This Means for Gold
If uncertainty persists around U.S. government funding or debt obligations → upside risk remains, with gold as the key safe-haven play.
If funding passes smoothly and geopolitical risks ease via a ceasefire → gold could face a sharp correction lower.
With markets already stretched, headline-driven swings in both directions (whipsaws) are highly possible.
📌 Trading Strategy
Extreme caution is warranted. This is not the time for aggressive positioning without a clear stop-loss. Gold may stage sudden rallies or drops depending on how these two events unfold.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading gold and other markets involves significant risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management.
Gold surges strongly. Bullish trend continues?The current market trend is very clear: any price pullback is a buying opportunity. Quaid advises against speculating on the top and shorting the market. The overall trend shows extremely strong bullish momentum, with continuous price increases and a vertical upward movement in the moving average system, indicating strong upward momentum and no signs of a top reversal.
The key historical support level of 3800 has become a solid foundation. The first resistance level is 3835, and the second is 3850. Quaid believes that investors should patiently wait for a pullback before continuing to buy.
It's important to note that while the uptrend is strong, strict stop-loss orders must be used for every trade to avoid large price corrections. The current trend is volatile, and once the market changes, it is easy to cause a large correction. While being bullish, one needs to be cautious.
Trading Strategy:
Buy on dips around 3810; stop loss at 3800; target profit range 3835-3850.
5 Mistakes Even Veteran Traders Make!Whether you're new or experienced, you can still fall into these 5 DEADLY mistakes. I'm here to point them out!
Mistake #1: Not understanding what you’re trading.
You’re trading forex, right? But do you know what pips or lots are? How currency pairs move? Or how news impacts them? Too many people dive in just because they see others profiting, without knowing what they’re betting on. That’s the difference between investing and gambling.
Don’t jump into the ocean without knowing what’s underwater.
Mistake #2: Not managing your money.
Most traders obsess over making money but forget how to protect it. It’s human nature—everyone wants fast cash! But if you trade big without control, one bad move can wipe out a month or even a year’s gains. Remember, keeping your capital safe is priority number one; profits come as a result.
As long as you’ve got the forest, you won’t run out of firewood.
Mistake #3: No clear trading plan.
Are you entering trades based on feelings? Exiting because of a “hunch”? That’s not trading—it’s playing the lottery! A trading plan is your compass, your map to stay on track. It needs clear entry points, stop-loss levels, and profit targets. Most importantly, you MUST stick to it!
Sticking to strategy doesn't make us invincible, but it can help us retreat safely.
Mistake #4: FOMO – Fear of Missing Out!
You see prices soaring and chase them, or you copy someone’s trade because they’re showing off profits. Then, when you lose, you blame the market or some “expert,” forgetting it was YOUR choice to trade. Drop this habit! Stop following the crowd and own your trading decisions.
You can’t live by envying someone else’s wallet.
Mistake #5: Trading addiction and chasing short-term wins.
Win one trade, and you want more. Lose one, and you want to “get even” with the market. This traps you in a cycle of overtrading and rash decisions. Profits don’t come from trading a lot—they come from trading RIGHT.
Don’t let emotions take over. Remember, When emotions rise, logic falls.
These 5 mistakes can burn all your money, no matter how much you have. Be honest with yourself and learn from them. I believe if you avoid these traps and stay disciplined, the door to success will open wide.
I’m Anfibo, just sharing what I know about finance.
XAU/USD 29 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As per my analysis dated 22 September 2025, whereby I mentioned price could potentially continue to print higher-highs. This is how price printed, showing little to no signs of pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line. Take note that CHoCH positioning as been brought significantly closer than previous, this allows for a more realistic chance of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation, price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,819.915.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed according to previous intraday expectation whereby I mentioned price to trade down to either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,791.255.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted horizontal line.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation. Price to then trade down to either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,819.915
Alternative Scenario: Price could potentially continue to print higher.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
International dynamics shift. Gold prices rise.Information Summary:
The United Nations imposed a new round of tough sanctions on Iran, directly impacting its economy and nuclear program, triggering a sharp escalation in regional tensions. Iran's assertive stance and refusal to compromise have fueled market concerns about escalating conflict. The rapid decline in gold prices was followed by a strong pullback, which fully confirmed the strong bullish sentiment in the market. It is expected that this geopolitical driver will continue to provide strong upward momentum for gold prices.
Market Analysis:
From a technical perspective, gold closed with a solid bullish candlestick on the daily chart, forming a classic bullish bottoming-out pattern and fully reversing earlier losses. The current gold price has firmly stood above all major moving averages, especially near the 3755 line, which has transformed from resistance to strong support. Influenced by the international situation, bullish momentum is strong in the market.
Quaid recommends going long in line with the market, targeting the 3800 integer mark, and continuing to hold positions after breaking through.
H1 Forecast for Tomorrow ( 28 September 2025 )Looking at the H1 mapping and forecast for tomorrow, I expect price to continue moving higher in a bullish trend. From technical analysis, the chart shows a bullish pattern and has broken through previous resistance. If price pulls back to the yellow zone and holds, that will be a strong signal of continuation.
From the fundamental side, Russia’s attack on Ukraine’s capital has shifted investors toward gold instead of the dollar. Meanwhile, the conflict in the Middle East—especially Israel’s strikes on Gaza—adds to the short-term bullish momentum.
However, caution is needed, as price may still correct or turn bearish. Always wait for confirmation before entering any trade, and manage your risk carefully.
Gold Trade Setup - 27/Sep/2025Hi Traders,
I am biased for further upside in Gold.
The first trade that I will be looking for is from the highlighted zone and the price is already testing it.
If price corrects here , then I will expect it to drop further to the next marked POI.
Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan.
Disclaimer : This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management.
Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
GOLD Massive Short! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
GOLD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 3754.4 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
My Stop Loss - 3761.8
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 3741.3
About Used Indicators:
The average true range (ATR) plays an important role in 'Supertrend' as the indicator uses ATR to calculate its value. The ATR indicator signals the degree of price volatility.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Gold (XAU/USD) – ORH Rejection Signals Potential Drop Toward PDOGold on the 15-min chart is showing a strong rejection from the ORH zone near resistance, supported by Dizzy HOLO indicator signals. Price action suggests a possible move lower toward PPF (3744) and PDOL (3739) levels if the bearish momentum holds.
⚡ Key Highlights:
Rejection from supply zone marked by ORH.
Breakout trap above resistance followed by reversal candles.
Next downside targets: PPF 3744 → PDOL 3739.
Bias remains bearish unless price breaks above ORH zone with volume.