Trade ideas
Gold Trade Plan 04/11/2025Dear Trader,
Gold (XAUUSD) is currently moving inside a rising channel while facing resistance from the upper trendline.
As long as the price does not break this channel strongly to the upside, the downtrend scenario remains valid.
If the price breaks below the lower channel line, we can expect a move toward 3929 and possibly 3895.
On the other hand, a strong breakout above the channel could lead to a bullish impulse targeting the 4000–4010 zone.
At the moment, the market is in a consolidation phase, and we are focusing more on swing positions rather than scalps due to high volatility.
Regards,
Alireza!
Gold Extends Decline Below $4,000 as Risk Appetite Returns🔍 Market Context
Gold continues to weaken as renewed optimism over US–China trade relations reduces safe-haven demand.
Despite the Fed’s dovish tone after the latest FOMC meeting, the Dollar remains relatively capped, offering limited support to bullion.
However, the technical landscape remains bearish — the decisive break below the $4,000 handle signals a continuation of the downside structure that’s been unfolding since early in the week.
📊 Technical Analysis
• Structure: Clear downtrend across H1–H4, with consistent lower highs and controlled liquidity sweeps.
• Key Resistance: 3,985 – 4,000 (former support now turned supply).
• Short-Term Targets:
– 3,925 – 3,930 → initial liquidity pocket.
– 3,880 – 3,860 → extended bearish target aligned with Fibo 1.618 extension.
• Invalidation: Only a confirmed break & hold above 4,020 – 4,030 would shift bias neutral-to-bullish.
🎯 Trading Outlook
If gold retests the 3,985–4,000 zone and fails to reclaim it, sellers are likely to extend control toward 3,920 or lower ahead of the FOMC-driven volatility.
Momentum remains bearish as long as the market trades below the 4,000 pivot — liquidity below 3,900 may attract smart money before any meaningful rebound.
⚜️ Summary
This decline isn’t random — it’s a structural reset.
The market is rebalancing after months of overextended bullish sentiment.
Watch how price reacts between 3,920–3,880 — this zone could define the next shift in gold’s short-term direction.
📊 MMFLOW TRADING Insight:
“Smart money doesn’t chase candles — it waits for liquidity to shift.”
GOLD XAUUSD 4HR CHARTBUYERS ARE ON CAUTION MODE ,the rejection at 4033-4043 was watched critically for possible break and close ,but buyers failed after many attempt on the descending trendline line .the close of 4th saw more correction following a new found hope for dollar index after the index break and close of daily supply roof, now dollar index approaching 100 $ mark.
the Sydney /Asian gold buyers seen to be on cautious mode on the current demand floor 3921-3933 level, should they try to buy it will still end in sell hopefully around any possible retest zone .
technical support based on strategy will be 3855-3865 zone
technical support zone based on strategy will be 3753.67-3745 zone .
NOTE;TRADING IS 100% PROBABILITY,ANY KEY LEVEL CAN FAIL.
MANAGE YOUR RISK.
FUNDAMENTAL ON GOLD .
Gold's reclassification as a Basel III Tier 1 asset marks a significant upgrade in how regulators and banks view gold within global financial systems.
Why Gold is Reclassified as Basel III Tier 1
Tier 1 Status Definition: Under Basel III, Tier 1 assets are the highest quality capital assets that banks can use to meet their core capital requirements. These assets carry a 0% risk weight, reflecting their safety, liquidity, and reliability as capital.
Gold’s Historical Status: Gold has already been recognized as a Tier 1 asset for capital adequacy since the Basel I Accords in 1988, due to its status as a safe store of value with very low default risk.
New Recognition (2025): Starting July 1, 2025, physical gold held by banks can be counted at 100% of its market value in regulatory capital calculations, instead of being subject to significant haircuts or lower classifications (e.g., previously it was treated as a Tier 3 asset with a 50% deduction).
High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) Label: This reclassification means gold is now officially recognized as a High-Quality Liquid Asset under Basel III, allowing it to qualify as part of banks’ liquidity coverage ratios (LCR), an important step for liquidity and capital management.
Regulatory Shift: This reflects changing perceptions that gold is not just a commodity but a true monetary asset. It is increasingly accepted as a reliable reserve asset by central banks and financial institutions worldwide.
Central Bank Adoption: This move aligns with continued aggressive gold buying by central banks, recognizing gold’s importance for capital reserves, systemic stability, and as an inflation hedge.
Significance
Banks can fully count gold toward core capital reserves.
Reduces capital burden, improving bank balance sheets and financial resilience.
Endorses gold as a strategic, monetary asset, not just a commodity investment.
Encourages institutional demand for physical gold and gold-related financial products.
Summary
Gold was reclassified as a Basel III Tier 1 asset starting July 1, 2025, reflecting its highest quality capital standing with 0% risk weighting and full market value recognition. This elevates gold’s status to a High-Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA) for regulatory purposes, facilitating banks’ liquidity coverage and capital adequacy. The change signals a major regulatory and market shift, acknowledging gold as a core reserve and strategic financial asset in modern banking systems.
#GOLD #XAUUSD
Gold on Intra-day Selling pressureTechnical analysis: Sellers still haven’t missed their estimate as Gold aggressively invalidated #4,000.80 benchmark on multiple occasions (posing as an hard Support zone), due geo-political tensions as a strong catalyst which is putting DX in High demand on Weekly interval. Environment and general market sentiment remains however Gold friendly (about to engage relief rally) due to the Supply-Demand mechanism. DX and Gold are still diagonally correlated, their charts are again on Positive-Negative match which is elemental sign of correlation. This suggests that DX tested its multi-Month Resistance zone, and Gold is under mild Selling pressure. This doesn't affect my local Low’s Buying strategy even though Gold is isolated within Hourly 4 chart healthy Descending Channel that by my estimations will sustain according to all accounts and there are no signs of a rebound yet (it is a reversal pattern most of the times). Weekly chart was Trading near strong Support belt which was aggressively corrected Intra-day so I will not make a strategy shift and will trust my Medium to Long-term Bull model as long as Buying spree on Gold lasts. I have to be excessively careful with today's session as it represents crossroads for the Short-term.
My position: I have Sold Bought Gold throughout yesterday's session from #3,998.80 especially towards #4,008.80 (aggressive Scalps) and called it for the session. Gold delivered significant Intra-day losses on Asian session and turned timefrimes to Bearish territory. Today is Intra-day Sell session and will continue Selling Gold from my key entry points.
Excellent Profits on yesterday’s session Selling sequenceAs discussed throughout my yesterday’s commentary: “My position: I have Sold Bought Gold throughout yesterday's session from #3,998.80 especially towards #4,008.80 (aggressive Scalps) and called it for the session. Gold delivered significant Intra-day losses on Asian session and turned timefrimes to Bearish territory. Today is Intra-day Sell session and will continue Selling Gold from my key entry points.”
My position: I have made excellent returns on Selling Gold throughout yesterday’s session taken from #3,995.80 local Top’s. Tide has turned to Sellers reigns and Intra-day sentiment remains turned in Sellers favor. Sequence will stay the same as long as DX is Trading on upside numbers.
XAUUSD:M15:BUYBased on the chart, our main outlook is bullish 📈
We expect the price to pull back into our buy zone before moving higher 🟡
This analysis reflects a personal view and is not financial advice ⚠️
GOLD: If Fed On Pause Then Gold Is On Pause TooAs you may have noticed, gold has seen a sharp reversal in recent weeks, and many traders and investors are now wondering whether this correction will be quick and shallow or last longer.
From an Elliott Wave perspective gold seems like it may try to complete an extended wave three, and put wave four pause in play. But what can trigger a retracement?
Well we need to consider US monetary policy. Powell didn’t convince markets last week about further cuts in December, so if rates stay on hold for the next few months or even longer, gold may continue to pause. The metal usually rallies more easily when expectations for rate cuts rise, not fall. So, both from a macro and wave perspective, this likely fits as a higher-degree fourth-wave correction. Overall, this correction could last longer, and once deeper prices flush out late buyers and weaker positions — possibly in the coming months — that’s when we’ll likely be more confident calling for the next major leg higher, ideally early in 2026.
So looking to buy? Patience!
Grega
Gold price analysis November 3🟡 XAUUSD – Recovery Signal Forming
Gold prices are showing signs of returning to an uptrend after a short-term correction. The 4026 area is now acting as an important key level – a stable price above this area would be a confirmation signal that buying pressure is returning to the market.
With recent economic data still supporting the gold uptrend, the current priority strategy is to wait for BUYs following the trend. The sellers can only regain control if the price breaks through the support trendline around 3970, then the downtrend can be re-established.
📈 Sample trading plan:
Buy early around: 4000
Buy intensified when the price breaks above: 4026
Expected target: 4150
Risk: The uptrend is negated when the price closes below the 3970 trendline
GOLD: Short Trade Explained
GOLD
- Classic bearish formation
- Our team expects fall
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell GOLD
Entry Level - 3972.9
Sl - 3987.4
Tp - 3944.7
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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XAUUSD 4H Chart – Bearish Structure in Play📉 Technical Outlook
XAUUSD 4H Chart – Bearish Structure in Play
Gold continues its corrective phase after breaking the previous bullish structure.
Price formed a Lower Low, confirming a short to mid-term downtrend.
The 4H bullish order block around 3917–3935 is being retested, while the bearish OB near 3960–3980 acts as resistance.
As long as price stays below the 4H bearish OB, further downside movement toward 3750–3770 remains likely.
The structure shows potential for a short-term pullback before continuation lower.
Gold Price Breakdown Setup Toward 3960 SupportGold price is trading near 3982, forming higher highs along a trend line. A potential breakdown below the trend line could trigger a move toward 3960 and 3929 support zones.
SELL XAUUSD (GOLD) - Great trade opportunityGOLD (XAUUSD) has been in a downtrend lately and has been showing many signs of more bearish movements ahead. Gold is currently in a clear downtrend channel shown on the chart, it has also broken a powerful support level and recently broken the yellow trendline which acted as the last support level near the current price. Gold is likely to hit the next support zone which is shown as the take profit level on the chart. Time to sell!
XAUUSD M30 TIME FRAME CHART ANALYSIS CONFIRMED TARGET I'm going to SELL now long Short entry 4026
Take profit 4000
Take profit 3980
Target 3964
Stop loss 4044
Are you agree 🔥
XAUUSD/GOLD 1H BUY PROJECTION 03.11.25🟩 Technical Summary:
Structure: Price has broken out of a 1H downtrend line, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
Pattern Confirmation: A Bullish Engulfing candle confirms buying momentum.
Zones Marked:
Resistance R1: Around 4,020 zone
Resistance R2: Around 4,030–4,035 zone
4H Target Price: ~4,075–4,080 zone
Support Zone: Near 3,995–4,000 (Stoploss area).
📈 Projection Logic:
Price breaks 1H downtrend.
Retests near the trendline breakout zone (~4,000–4,010).
Pushes towards R1 and R2.
Final 4H target projected near 4,075–4,080.
🎯 Buy Setup Example:
Buy Entry: 4,005 – 4,010 (after retest)
Stoploss: 3,985 – 3,990
Target: 4,075 – 4,080
Risk–Reward: Roughly 1:3+
XAUUSD📊 GOLD (XAUUSD) – Multi-Timeframe Technical Outlook
Monthly:
Gold closed the last monthly candle bullish, even with a long upper wick.
✅ Buyers are still in control
⚠️ But the wick shows loss of momentum at the top
✅ Weekly Timeframe
Price broke out of a symmetric triangle, and for 9 consecutive weeks, gold pushed aggressively to the upside.
However, the last two weekly candles show:
smaller bodies
longer wicks
loss of momentum
📉 If this correction continues, price may come back down to retest the broken triangle around the 3,500 zone.
This retest would collect liquidity and give the market structure needed to build a new leg toward the 5,000 long-term target.
✅ Daily Timeframe
Recent high near 4,400
Price dropped to 4,000 → new low
Pullback to 4,150 → Lower High
Deeper drop to 3,886 → new lower low
Bounce up to 4,046 → another Lower High
🔻 Conclusion on D1:
The daily structure is bearish with a clear sequence of Lower Highs, showing loss of bullish strength.
✅ H4 Timeframe
On H4, price is currently forming a bearish flag pattern — slow, corrective movement after the drop.
If price breaks below the flag, that would open the door for another leg down, targeting:
3,900
3,750
and possibly the 3,500 weekly retest zone
📌 Summary
Monthly → bullish but losing steam
Weekly → breakout confirmed, but correction likely before continuation
Daily → bearish market structure
H4 → bearish flag building momentum for another drop
If the flag breaks down, the next major liquidity zone sits around 3,500 — the same zone as the symmetric triangle retest.
🔥 Bias: Bearish short-term
🚀 Long-term: Bullish continuation toward 5,000 after deeper correction
XAUUSD | GOLD LONG SETUP🎅✨ Santa’s Got a New Sleigh ✨🎅
- Forget reindeer — this year he’s hitching his ride to gold bars.
- The chart looks like Santa’s sack: heavy, bulging, and ready to burst open at resistance.
- RSI? More like “Really Santa’s Incoming.”
- Fib levels lining up like elves in formation, handing out bullish candles instead of candy canes.
- If this breaks north, it’s not just a rally — it’s a jingle‑bell breakout.
Gold going bullish?After Fed rate cuts gold fell below 4000 but seems to be gaining. We currently have double bottom and trend line break. One last confirmation could be the break of the neckline and retest after which we could push further upwards to all time high or fill the gap at 4112.
XAU/USD (2H) – Breakdown LoadingCAPITALCOM:GOLD topped out heavy at $4,380, neckline cracked around $4,200–$4,190 - classic Double Top formation. Since then, it’s been bleeding down inside a descending channel, and every bounce has died under pressure.
$3,986 is the line in the sand ⚔️ — as long as price stays below, bears are in full control.
We’re still trading inside the Zonal Drop Range ($3,986–$3,825) — where sellers keep hammering every push.
🎯 Targets:
TP1 → $2920 (38.2% fib)
TP2 → $3,858
TP2 → $3,790–$3,760 (Support Zone)
🧠 Setup:
Short rejections between $3,980–$3,990.
Stop above $4,040 — any close above that cancels the play and opens space back toward $4,103–$4,160.
📉 RSI: Neutral to bearish around 51.
📊 Volume: Drying up = pressure cooker before next drop.
Until bulls reclaim $4,040, I’m hunting shorts only.
Below $3,986, expect acceleration — liquidity vacuum toward $3,858, maybe a full flush into $3,790.
Stay sharp, stay patient 💚.
November 3, 2025 - XAUUSD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Analysis:
From the chart, bearish momentum hasn’t completely disappeared, and bullish strength hasn’t yet emerged, suggesting that the market may enter a range-bound phase.
I expect the price to consolidate between 3991 and 4010 — within this range, sell near the top and buy near the bottom.
Watch for a clear breakout:
If price breaks above 4010, consider buying pullbacks into support.
If price breaks below 3991, look to sell rallies into resistance.
A quick reminder: the zone between 4010–4045 lacks clear higher-timeframe levels, but there are many minor levels within it.
Conservative traders may prefer to wait until price exits this zone.
Aggressive traders can try light positions near short-term levels — with strict stop losses and small size.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 4065 – Resistance
• 4050–4058 – Resistance zone
• 4045 – Resistance
• 4020–4030 – Resistance zone
• 4010 – Upper boundary of range / resistance
• 4000 – Psychological level
• 3991 – Lower boundary of range / support
• 3971–3980 – Support zone
• 3960 – Key support
• 3947 – Support
📈 Intraday Strategy:
SELL: If price breaks below 3991 → target 3987, with further downside toward 3984, 3980, 3975
BUY: If price holds above 4010 → target 4015, with further upside toward 4020, 4025, 4030
GOLD The Target Is DOWN! SELL!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for GOLD is below:
The market is trading on 4022.7 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 4010.3
Recommended Stop Loss - 4030.0
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
