Policy essence: "Eagle-wing rhetoric" concealing a loose coreThe trend significance of the interest rate cut decision: This interest rate cut is the second one in 2025, with a cumulative easing of 50 basis points, and the dovish forces in the voting results were significantly dominant - Milan's radical proposal to cut interest rates by 50 basis points was not passed, but the only opponent against the rate cut was Schmidt, with 10 votes in favor, highlighting the "loose consensus". This is a fundamental difference from the "consecutive rate hikes" tone in 2023. Historical data shows that the probability of initiating continuous easing within 3 months after the first rate cut is 83%, with the average gold price rising by more than 7%, and the current price has not reflected this trend.
The liquidity booster from the termination of the balance sheet: The Fed clearly stated that it would completely end the balance sheet reduction on December 1st. The easing strength of this action has been severely underestimated by the market. From historical experience, within 1 month after the termination of the balance sheet reduction in 2019, the gold price rose by 4.2%, while the bank reserves have dropped to the critical level of 2.93 trillion US dollars, and the termination of the balance sheet reduction will directly release over 300 billion US dollars of liquidity. This "interest rate cut + balance sheet expansion" combination is precisely the core driving force for the rise of gold, and the price of 3924 US dollars underestimates this pricing.
The misleading sentiment of Powell's statement: Powell emphasized that the interest rate cut in December is "not a certainty", which is actually a cautious statement in the absence of data - the US government shutdown led to the delayed release of data such as the September CPI, and the Fed needs to reserve flexibility for its policies. However, the non-farm payrolls added only 12,000 in October (far below the expected 113,000), and the core data of weak private sector employment has already laid the groundwork for the interest rate cut in December. Interest rate futures show that the probability of an interest rate cut in December is still 67%, and the speech did not completely reverse this.
Today's gold trading strategy
buy：3915-3925
tp:3940-3950
sl:3895
