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GOLDCFD trade ideas

Where Next for Gold After the BreakoutHaving surged through key resistance earlier this month, gold has firmly reasserted its uptrend. Let’s take a look at what’s driving the move and where the next opportunities may lie. Politics, policy and the perfect storm The latest leg higher has been powered by a potent mix of politics and policy. Softer US jobs data has markets fully pricing a rate cut at this Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, with some even calling for a larger move. At the same time Donald Trump’s attacks on the Fed have unsettled confidence in central bank independence. That combination has left the dollar vulnerable and reinforced gold’s appeal as a safe store of value. Debt and inflation worries are adding another layer of support. Real yields look set to dip negative again, a backdrop in which gold has historically thrived. Concerns over the US fiscal outlook and the risk of stagflation under Trump’s tariff agenda have only intensified the demand for hedges. Meanwhile conviction buyers such as central banks, ETFs and macro funds continue to add to positions, underlining the strength behind this rally. A breakout with fuel in the tank On the daily timeframe the breakout is clear. After months of congestion, gold blasted through resistance and is now consolidating its gains. The next phase will depend on how price behaves around the support zones that have formed below. The first sits around the flip zone where broken resistance has become support and neatly aligns with the VWAP anchored to the pre breakout lows. A second pocket of liquidity lies just beneath at the base of the old resistance band, which is also in confluence with the 50 day moving average. Gold Daily Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Zooming into the hourly chart adds further context. Last week’s surge has settled into a tight trading range. Momentum remains with the bulls, which means another push higher before a deeper pullback is entirely possible. This kind of consolidation is often a healthy pause after a breakout, allowing the market to reset before the next leg. Should the range break lower, those daily support zones are where buyers will be expected to step back in. That would keep the breakout structure intact and provide tactical opportunities for dip buyers to reload. The path of least resistance is still higher, but the market may want to test how deep support runs before driving further into record territory. Gold Hourly Candle Chart Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents. Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 85.24% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by Capitalcom
Gold Weekly Summary and Forecast 9/14/2025Gold closed another week with a green candle. There is no sign of slowing down at this moment. Although in lower timeframe, price has been choppy for the past few days. I do expect gold continue to rise at least to 3700 next week. However, if we look at 2D TF, there has been green bars for the last 10 sessions. There bounds to be some level of correction coming at least for the first few days of next week. Therefore, I am expecting gold to drop early next week and bounce thereafter. Price could drop as low as 3588. Let's monitor price closely next week to decide trading strategy.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by SteadyFund
Gold - Here we have the textbook breakout!📖Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) currently breaks out: 🔎Analysis summary: After we saw Gold rejecting the previous all time high multiple times over the past couple of months, we are now witnessing a bullish breakout. If this breakout is confirmed in the near future, Gold will head for another parabolic rally higher, repeating the 2011 blow off top. 📝Levels to watch: $3.500 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
TVC:GOLDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
13
Watch for gold prices: Pressure is building in the 3650-3660 ranWatch for gold prices: Pressure is building in the 3650-3660 range. The gold market is currently being influenced by both bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, inflation is showing strong resilience, while on the other, the job market is showing clear signs of weakness. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut remain firm. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is as high as 91%. Trump's tough rhetoric toward Russia and Europe, as well as escalating tensions in the Middle East, have increased market uncertainty. In-depth Technical Analysis: 1: Gold has entered a consolidation phase after reaching a record high, facing short-term directional analysis. 2: The daily chart remains extremely overbought. 3: The lack of further declines on Wednesday suggests that the pullback is a normal correction after a significant rebound. Even if the market peaks, it won't be that simple. It will at least experience a period of "high-level fluctuations turning bearish" or "a secondary rebound, enticing investors to buy before the decline." 4: The current consolidation may be a preparation for further upward momentum or a significant correction. 5: Upward Resistance: Short-term focus: $3643-3653-3674; subsequently, focus on the psychological level of $3700. Downward Support: Short-term support lies in the $3620-3615 area; key support lies at $3600. 6: Two possible scenarios for the next phase of the trend: Optimistic Scenario: Gold prices hold the $3615 support level and rise again after the Fed's rate cut, testing $3700 or even higher. Cautious Scenario: Gold prices will first fall back to the $3550-3600 area for consolidation, digesting recent gains before seeking upward movement. Today's Strategy: SELL: 3650-3660 SL: 3672 TP: 3640-3630-3615--3600 BUY: 3635-3640 (Aggressive) SL: 3630 TP: 3650-3660-3670+ BUY: 3610-3620 (Conservative) SL: 3600 TP: 3630-3640-3650-3660+
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Timo_Weber
Excellent re-Buy opportunities deliveredTechnical analysis: Gold reached my personal maximum of #3,702.80 - #3,705.80 once again as the Price-action didn’t invalidated Daily chart’s solid Ascending Channel to the upside and is now testing the Lower High’s Lower pressure point. However, #3,652.80 benchmark represents very strong Support zone as I see strong possibility of Gold reversing there many times ahead without breaking it (after such decline on late U.S. session / post Fed conference), as Investors, after #4th in a row report announcement which missed their estimate, should draw capital from riskier assets to safe-havens such as Gold / I doubt Gold has more potential to trend Lower on Short-term. Bond Yields are soaring as well due to the Fed’s Repurchase Agreements, which are making Low risk assets such as Bond Yields and Gold counterbalancing the trend on DX. The current Buying accumulation pattern on Hourly 4 chart is now on total Neutrality but attempting to break towards last week’s Higher High's, DX (# +0.02%) is Bearish as well as the Bond Yields (# +1.27%) are rising with every Hourly candle within current recovery which hit local High's and aggressively reversed. Current Fed loan climate is Gold friendly as additional Rate tightening will make commodities (Gold especially) to gain even more regarding Medium-term horizon and DX will suffer. Price-action is on very cautious sentiment. My position: I continue Trading with my re-Buy orders from my key entry points as I have Bought each local Low's Gold delivered throughout yesterday's session plus Profits Buying Gold before Rate event as I was confident that Rate cut will be delivered where Gold should gain and DX lose.
TVC:GOLDLong
by goldenBear88
GOLD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell! Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 3,651.90. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 3,609.43 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by SignalProvider
1
XAUUSD | London Plan | SEP 16, 20251️⃣Main Trend The overall trend remains bullish. Price continues to form higher highs and higher lows, while the long-term ascending trendline has not been broken. This indicates that buyers are still in control of the market. 2️⃣ Key Value Areas (Volume Profile & Daily Open) - Previous Day VAH: 3685 - Previous Day POC: 3682 - Previous Day VAL: 3642 - Daily Open: around 3680 – aligning with the Previous Day POC, which adds further reliability to this zone. 3️⃣ Price Action After yesterday’s strong breakout, price successfully cleared the previous resistance zone at 3673–3676, then retested this level and bounced back up. Currently, price is holding steady above the POC and Daily Open, showing that buyers are maintaining control and absorbing selling pressure effectively. 4️⃣ Candlestick Patterns The H1 candles formed around 3673–3682 show long lower wicks, signaling strong demand and clear rejection of downside attempts. This provides additional confirmation in favor of a continued bullish scenario. 5️⃣ Trading Plan - Buy Zone 3678–3680: aligned with the Previous Day POC and today’s Daily Open, making it a strong intraday support. - Buy Zone 3673–3676: matching the previous highs of the last few days, which has already been tested and confirmed as a demand area. Target: 3690 – 3700 👉 If you find this analysis useful, don’t forget to hit like 👍 and drop a comment 💬 to support us in delivering even better insights!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by satoshi_trader_gold
XAUUSD | London Plan | SEP 15, 2025In technical analysis, maintaining the right order of priority is crucial to avoid information noise: 1️⃣Main Trend The overall trend remains bullish. The supporting trendline from last week is still intact, showing that buyers are in control. 2️⃣ Key Price Zones -PW VAH: 3654 -PW POC: 3645 -PW VAL: 3633 Price is currently hovering around the POC 3645, which also aligns with the trendline. This is an important zone to monitor for reactions. 3️⃣ Price Action During the Asian session, price tested the PW VAL zone at 3632–3635 and bounced upward, confirming strong support. Currently, price is retesting the POC, with potential to break and retest for continuation to the upside. 4️⃣ Candlestick Patterns Candles forming around the trendline and POC indicate strong buying absorption and rejection of downside moves, providing favorable signals for the bullish scenario. 5️⃣ Trading Plan - Buy 3643–3646: when price breaks above POC and retests. - Buy 3632–3635: at PW VAL, where the Asian session bounce already confirmed buying pressure. Target: 3665 – 3675. Signals. Discipline. Profits 👉 If you find this analysis useful, don’t forget to hit like 👍 and drop a comment 💬 to support us in delivering even better insights!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by satoshi_trader_gold
CURRENT MARKET CONTEXTCURRENT MARKET CONTEXT - Price is currently around 3646, reacting right at the SWING PoC + VAH zone (3644–3651). - This price area was previously a strong resistance — now it may be retested before continuing upward. - The short-term down structure has been broken, and the market is back in an uptrend channel. - H1 and H4 structure remain in Higher Low – Higher High, supporting the bullish trend. VOLUME PROFILE highlights strong distribution around: 🟧VAL: 3632–3635 🔺POC – VAH: 3644–3651 🟩Supply zone: 3668–3672 💡 4 TRADING SCENARIOS ✅ SCENARIO 1 – BUY PULLBACK at POC zone ⚠️ Conditions: Reversal candlestick forms around 3640–3644 (Pin Bar / Fakey / Engulfing M15–H1). POC volume holds strongly. ❇️ Entry zone: 3640 – 3644 (retest VAH/POC) 🎯 Target: 3658 – 3668 🛑 SL: below 3634 📌 Reason: This is the nearest volume support zone; high probability of bouncing with trend. ✅ SCENARIO 2 – BUY on retest of SWING VAL zone ⚠️ Conditions: Price shows rejection wick or fake break at 3632. Uptrend line remains intact. ❇️ Entry zone: 3632 – 3635 🎯 Target: 3648 – 3668 🛑 SL: below 3628 📌 Reason: This is a strong support zone previously confirmed. ✅ SCENARIO 3 – SELL short-term reaction at Supply Zone ⚠️ Conditions: Bearish Engulfing / Pin Bar H1 forms. Weak breakout with no volume continuation. ❇️ Entry zone: 3668 – 3672 🎯 Target: 3650 – 3640 🛑 SL: above 3675 📌 Reason: Previous high + liquidity supply zone, potential to trap buyers. ✅ SCENARIO 4 – SELL if Demand Zone breaks ⚠️ Conditions: Price breaks clearly below 3628 with strong breakout volume. Retest fails. ❇️ Entry zone: below 3628 (upon confirmed breakout) 🎯 Target: 3610 – 3595 🛑 SL: above 3632 📌 Reason: If broken, this signals a shift from bullish structure to corrective move. ✅ STRATEGY SUMMARY - Prioritize Buys with the trend: Focus on Buy setups at VAL or VAH zones. - Be cautious at Supply zones: These are potential profit-taking areas. - Respect Stop Loss: If the market breaks the Demand zone, the plan needs to be reversed
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TraderX_68
Wednesday's gold price target: 3750Wednesday's gold price target: 3750 As shown in Figure 1h: The current converging fluctuation range of gold prices is clearly visible within the fan structure. Gold prices have remained strong after breaking through. We expect Thursday's interest rate cut to drive another surge in gold prices across the board. Expected target: Around 3750 points. Next, it's important to note that after all the positive news is released, gold prices will be cashed out at high levels, leading to profit-taking. This is likely to cause a waterfall-like decline in gold prices at the top. Therefore, ordinary traders must remain cautious when buying with the trend. Currently, the most effective way to profit is scalping, entering and exiting quickly, and setting reasonable stop-loss orders. Trading Strategy: Conservative: BUY: 3675-3685 SL: 3660 TP: 3700-3750 Aggressive: BUY: 3685-3690 SL: 3675 TP: 3700-3720-3750 Be cautious with short positions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Freja_rb
Gold Facing Strong Resistance – Bearish Move Towards Support ?Analysis: Resistance Zone: Price is struggling to break above the $3,645–$3,650 area, which has acted as a strong resistance multiple times. Support Levels: Immediate support lies around $3,620 and $3,614, with the major support zone at $3,580. Price Action: Repeated rejections from resistance indicate weakening bullish momentum. Sellers are gaining control near the resistance zone. Bearish Outlook: A potential downward move is projected, with price likely to test $3,580 support if resistance continues to hold. Risk Management: A break and close above $3,650 would invalidate the bearish scenario and could trigger a bullish continuation. ✅ Bias: Bearish below $3,650 🎯 Targets: $3,620 → $3,614 → $3,580 🛑 Invalidation: Above $3,650
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Pipshunter27
Risk, Psychology & Performance in Global MarketsPart 1: Risk in Global Markets 1.1 Understanding Risk In financial terms, risk refers to the probability of losing money or failing to achieve expected returns. Global markets face multiple layers of risk, such as: Market Risk: The risk of losses due to fluctuations in stock prices, interest rates, currencies, or commodities. Credit Risk: The possibility that a borrower defaults on debt. Liquidity Risk: Difficulty in buying/selling assets without affecting their price. Operational Risk: Failures in systems, processes, or human errors. Geopolitical Risk: Wars, sanctions, trade disputes, or policy changes. Systemic Risk: Collapse of interconnected institutions, like the 2008 financial crisis. Each of these risks interacts differently depending on global conditions. For instance, rising U.S. interest rates strengthen the dollar, creating ripple effects in emerging markets, where currencies may depreciate and capital outflows increase. 1.2 Measuring Risk Several tools and models measure financial risk: Value at Risk (VaR): Estimates the maximum potential loss over a certain period with a given confidence level. Beta Coefficient: Measures stock volatility relative to the overall market. Stress Testing: Simulates extreme scenarios (e.g., oil at $200 or a sudden war). Risk-Adjusted Metrics: Like the Sharpe ratio (return vs. volatility) and Sortino ratio (downside risk). But risk is not just statistical; it is perceived differently across regions and cultures. A European fund manager may worry about ECB monetary policy, while an Asian investor may focus on currency volatility. 1.3 Risk Management Strategies Global investors adopt multiple approaches: Diversification: Spreading assets across regions, sectors, and instruments. Hedging: Using derivatives (options, futures, swaps) to limit downside. Position Sizing: Allocating only a portion of capital per trade to limit losses. Stop-Loss Orders: Automatic triggers to exit positions when losses exceed a threshold. Macro Hedging: Large funds may hedge exposure to entire regions or asset classes. An important truth: risk can be managed, but never eliminated. The 2008 financial crisis, COVID-19 crash, and Russia-Ukraine war prove that unforeseen shocks can disrupt even the most sophisticated models. Part 2: Psychology in Global Markets 2.1 Human Behavior and Trading While quantitative models dominate headlines, human psychology drives global markets more than numbers. Investors are emotional beings, influenced by fear, greed, hope, and regret. This is why markets often deviate from fundamentals. During bubbles (dot-com in 2000, housing in 2008, or cryptocurrencies in 2021), prices rise far above intrinsic value due to herd mentality. Conversely, panic selling during crashes can push prices far below fair value. 2.2 Behavioral Finance Theories Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky): People fear losses more than they value equivalent gains — a $100 loss feels worse than a $100 gain feels good. Herd Behavior: Investors follow the crowd, assuming others know better. Overconfidence Bias: Traders overestimate their skills, leading to excessive risk-taking. Anchoring: Relying too much on initial information, like a stock’s IPO price. Confirmation Bias: Seeking information that supports existing beliefs while ignoring contrary evidence. Global markets are full of such psychological traps. For example, in 2020, when oil prices went negative for the first time, many retail traders underestimated risks and held losing positions, driven by hope of a quick rebound. 2.3 Emotions in Trading The two strongest emotions in trading are: Fear: Leads to panic selling, hesitation, and missed opportunities. Greed: Encourages over-leveraging, chasing trends, and holding on too long. Successful global traders learn to master these emotions. The key is not eliminating them (which is impossible) but managing and channeling them into rational decision-making. 2.4 Psychological Challenges in Global Markets Information Overload: With 24/7 global markets, traders face endless news, data, and rumors. Filtering is essential. Time Zone Stress: Global traders deal with Asian, European, and U.S. sessions, often leading to fatigue. Cultural Differences: Risk tolerance varies by region; for example, U.S. traders are often more aggressive than Japanese institutional investors. Uncertainty Fatigue: Continuous shocks (pandemics, wars, elections) can create stress and cloud judgment. 2.5 Building Mental Strength To succeed in global markets, traders must build psychological resilience: Discipline: Following a trading plan and avoiding impulsive actions. Patience: Waiting for high-probability setups instead of chasing every move. Emotional Regulation: Techniques like meditation, journaling, or structured routines. Learning from Losses: Viewing mistakes as tuition fees for education. Part 3: Performance in Global Markets 3.1 Defining Performance Performance in markets is not just about absolute profits. It involves risk-adjusted returns, consistency, and sustainability. For example: A trader who makes 20% with controlled risk is performing better than one who makes 40% but risks everything. Institutions are judged by their ability to generate alpha (returns above the benchmark). 3.2 Performance Metrics Global investors use multiple measures: Sharpe Ratio: Return vs. volatility. Alpha & Beta: Outperformance relative to the market. Max Drawdown: Largest peak-to-trough loss. Win Rate vs. Risk-Reward Ratio: High win rates are useless if losses exceed gains. Annualized Returns: Long-term performance consistency. 3.3 Performance Drivers Performance in global markets depends on: Knowledge: Understanding global economics, geopolitics, and industry cycles. Execution: Timing trades and managing entries/exits. Technology: Use of AI, algorithms, and big data for competitive edge. Psychological Stability: Avoiding impulsive mistakes. Risk Management: Limiting losses to survive long enough to benefit from winners. 3.4 Institutional vs. Retail Performance Institutional Investors: Hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, and pension funds have resources, research, and advanced tools, but are constrained by size and regulations. Retail Traders: More flexible and agile, but prone to overtrading and psychological traps. Both must balance risk, psychology, and performance — though in different ways. Conclusion Risk, psychology, and performance are the three pillars of global market participation. Risk reminds us that uncertainty is inevitable and must be managed wisely. Psychology teaches us that emotions shape markets more than numbers. Performance highlights that success lies not in short-term gains but in consistent, risk-adjusted returns. The integration of these factors is what separates amateurs from professionals, and short-term winners from long-term survivors. As global markets evolve with technology, geopolitics, and changing investor behavior, mastering these three elements will remain the ultimate edge for traders and investors worldwide.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
Gold peaks and continues to fall! Today is Thursday, September 18th. Has gold fallen? We've been emphasizing from the weekend, last weekend, and even yesterday that the peak for gold is just above the 3700 mark, with the upper limit at 3750. The moment the Fed cuts interest rates, gold will fall. We've been saying this over and over again. I wonder if you've listened! I remember emphasizing in videos and articles at the beginning of the month, around September 1st, that gold would remain bullish until the Fed's interest rate decision on September 18th. The turning point for this round of bullish and bearish sentiment was around the September 18th decision. Those who listened carefully definitely made money during this period. Yesterday, after the Fed data was released, gold prices fluctuated wildly, hitting a low of 3651, a high of 3707, and finally a sharp dive to 3646. Are there any investors who are waiting in the wings? The main reason for yesterday's bull-bear market shakeout in gold was the influence of Powell's speech: one moment, he said that job growth has slowed and downside risks are increasing; the next, he said that inflation has recently risen, but remains slightly elevated. Therefore, gold's volatility is erratic. Because such statements are subject to significant uncertainty and contingency, the market is bound to be unstable and risky, so avoid them if possible. Gold is a product driven by both technical and news factors. Experience is crucial. We've seen all sorts of ups and downs, right? When should we trade and when should we not? You've only been in this market for a few days, while we've been in it for years. Don't question my expertise with your speculation. Many people keep asking: Why did gold fall instead of rise after the Fed cut? The key lies in whether this bull market has completed. From 3313 to 3700, the price has risen by nearly $400, exceeding historical gains for the same period. Upside potential is limited. Expectations of a Fed rate cut have already been fulfilled, and the actual implementation will be the time for bulls to take profits. If you're still foolishly waiting for a rate cut to become bullish, it's already too late. Next, gold will undergo a bullish correction. Once the correction is over, the next bullish rally will begin. There are two key support levels to watch below: 3580 and 3550. The extreme retracement level is 3511. As for gold today, a bearish outlook is definitely in order. The rebound to the 382 resistance level at 3670 at 7:30 this morning was a reason to go short, but it was so early in the morning that many people may not have reacted. Now that it has fallen below the early morning low of 3645, a rebound could lead to a second bearish trend, with the possibility of a continued decline. Support below is around 3626-3615, and the potential downside limit for today is estimated to be around 3600.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by BasilAlice