Gold Facing Strong Resistance – Bearish Move Towards Support ?Analysis:
Resistance Zone: Price is struggling to break above the $3,645–$3,650 area, which has acted as a strong resistance multiple times.
Support Levels: Immediate support lies around $3,620 and $3,614, with the major support zone at $3,580.
Price Action: Repeated rejections from resistance indicate weakening bullish momentum. Sellers are gaining control near the resistance zone.
Bearish Outlook: A potential downward move is projected, with price likely to test $3,580 support if resistance continues to hold.
Risk Management: A break and close above $3,650 would invalidate the bearish scenario and could trigger a bullish continuation.
✅ Bias: Bearish below $3,650
🎯 Targets: $3,620 → $3,614 → $3,580
🛑 Invalidation: Above $3,650
GOLDCFD trade ideas
Gold: Cooling inflation, eyeing the 3.70x waveHello everyone,
The macro backdrop is currently favourable for gold, with both China and the US reporting weaker-than-expected inflation data: China’s CPI came in at 0% m/m and -0.4% y/y, with PPI at -2.9% y/y; meanwhile, the US posted PPI at -0.1% m/m, 2.6% y/y, and core PPI at 2.8% y/y. These softer figures have pushed yields and the USD lower, while strengthening expectations that the Fed may cut rates at its next meeting. Adding to this, the PBoC continued to purchase gold in August, reinforcing confidence in long-term reserve demand.
On the H4 chart, the bullish structure remains intact: price is holding above the rising Ichimoku cloud, while FVG blocks below act as support. Gold is currently consolidating tightly in the 3.66–3.68 zone, with short-bodied candles suggesting sellers lack the momentum to break the trend. The nearest support levels to watch are 3.63–3.62, then 3.61–3.60, with deeper support at 3.585–3.575 along the cloud edge.
My view leans bullish: I’m looking for a shallow pullback and an H4 close above 3.66–3.68 to open the way towards 3.70–3.715, potentially extending to 3.72 if momentum holds. Only a close below 3.60 on H4 would make me consider a deeper retracement into the 3.585–3.575 cloud zone.
In short, softer inflation and consistent reserve buying are building a strong foundation for gold. What’s needed now is a firm close above 3.68 to confidently target the 3.70x region.
What do you think – will gold break through 3.70x in this move, or does it need another balance around 3.60 first? Share your thoughts!
Gold at a Crossroad – 3645 Wall vs 3610 Base👋 Hello traders,
Gold is trading now around 3636 after printing the ATH at 3674. Since then, price has been rejected twice from the 3645–3650 supply zone, forming clear lower highs and showing signs of distribution.
🔸 HTF Picture (D1–H4):
Momentum is cooling, RSI is coming down from overbought, and EMAs are starting to lose their bullish slope. Structure is heavy under 3645, but the higher timeframe uptrend is still intact as long as 3610–3600 holds.
🔸 Key Levels:
Resistance: 3645–3650 → strong supply, rejection zone.
Support: 3610–3600 → structural base, must hold to avoid deeper correction.
⚡ Friday Context:
We have red USD news (UoM sentiment + inflation expectations). On top of that, it’s Friday, and gold often plays dirty before weekly close – fake spikes, liquidity grabs, and manipulation are common.
🎯 The battlefield is clear: 3610 vs 3645. If bulls defend the base, we could see another push higher. If sellers keep control below the wall, more downside opens.
📊 What’s your play here? Buy the dip or fade the wall?
👇 Drop your thoughts in the comments, hit the like button if this helps your trading, and don’t forget to follow GoldFxMinds for daily precision updates 🚀✨ ma refer la text, asta era textul
THE KOG REPORTTHE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG report we said we would be watching the open for a support level to form below and price to attempt the red box, which worked well. It’s that red box we said needed to be watched for the break, which if happened would see us attempt higher price starting with 3468 and above that 3485-90. Again, we broke, hit our targets on the chart and the red box targets early week.
We then released the NFP Report which gave the key level and the bias for the move. As you can see on that report, we managed to get almost a pip prefect move from the key level upside, nearly into the target level where we suggested the opportunity to short may come from this week
So, what can we expect in the week ahead?
For this week we have Cpi and PPi midweek so there is potential for this to either range up here, or, like we suggested in the NFP Report, a tap above and a move downside. What we would ideally like to see here is support attacked, defended, a move upside in to the 3606-10 region with extension into the 3620 level and a rejection from above. So, in this scenario, due to the stretch, we’re happy to test these levels with sensible risk but due to that stretch and the mean being way below, if we break above that 3620 level, we’re happy to let it go to where it wants before looking for a reversal.
We’re going to keep it simple, lets see how we open and then we’ll have a better idea of what to expect for the rest of the week.
As usual, we’ll update traders through the week with our plans and trades.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAU/USD 15/09/2025Bias Map
HTF Bias: Bullish ⬆️ (85% probability)
Key Liquidity Zones:
Above: The recent high at $3,660 and the subsequent high at $3,675. This is the primary target for further bullish movement.
Below: The low at $3,620, which is the immediate support level. A break below this level would invalidate the bullish bias in the short term. The next major liquidity pool is around the $3,600 psychological level.
Sniper Entries
Entry #1: Buy at $3,638 | SL $3,630 | TP1 $3,655 | TP2 $3,670 | RR 2.12
Entry #2: Buy at $3,630 (retest of previous resistance now support) | SL $3,625 | TP1 $3,645 | TP2 $3,660 | RR 3.0
Execution Notes
Session to focus: London/NY overlap. This session typically provides the most volatility and volume for breakouts and trend continuation.
Conditions to validate entry:
A liquidity sweep below $3,640 followed by a break of structure (BoS) on the M1/M5 charts, signaling a move back up.
Confirmation of a fair value gap (FVG) fill in the M15/M1 timeframes around the $3,638 price level.
The $3,630 entry is a high-probability setup based on a retest of the previous M15 resistance level, which is now acting as support. A clean reaction here would be a strong signal.
Risk management note: Use a 1% maximum risk per trade with an ATR-based stop loss for adaptive sizing. Keep maximum drawdown (DD) below 5%. 📈
Preparation for market opening XAU/USDLatest Technical Data
Open: 3,644.23
High: 3,645.55
Low: 3,641.36
Close: 3,643.09
RSI (14): 48.32 → neutral
Stochastic: 43.07 → neutral tending weak
1H Trend: Slightly sideways
Buy on Dip → 3603: Potential buying area if the price corrects to this support.
Sell on Rally → 3653: Potential selling area if the price rises near this resistance.
Breakout Upwards → 3668: If the price breaks this level with high volume, potential continuation rally.
Breakout Downwards → 3598: If the price breaks this level, potential deeper decline.
gold gps"Due to significant news events, it is advisable to avoid impulsive entries. If the price decisively breaks and consolidates above 3690, a bullish trend continuation becomes likely. However, if a decline occurs with a bearish engulfing candle (or any reversal pattern you prefer), consider entering a short position.
If the price respects 3660 as support and closes above the previous candle’s close, a reversal and long entry at this level would be optimal. Conversely, if this level is broken, we anticipate a decline toward 3640, where a strong buy opportunity may emerge."
Gold 1H – Fed Week: Liquidity Sweeps Before FOMCGold on the 1H timeframe is ranging around 3,643 after a series of ChoCH/BOS prints. Liquidity is stacked above the intraday buy zone at 3,658–3,656 and higher at 3,676–3,678, while discount liquidity sits near 3,615–3,613. With markets pricing a potential Fed cut this week and dot-plot guidance in focus, expect engineered spikes into premium followed by mean reversion before any sustained move.
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📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔴 SELL ZONE 3,676 – 3,678 (SL 3,683): Premium resistance for engineered sweep/rejection targeting 3,665 → 3,655 → 3,645.
• 🟢 BUY ZONE 3,658 – 3,656 (SL 3,651): Intraday demand inside prior consolidation targeting 3,665 → 3,670 → 3,675+.
• 🟢 BUY SUPPORT 3,615 – 3,613 (SL 3,610): Discount demand at the base of structure targeting 3,630 → 3,645 → 3,655+.
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📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔺 Buy Setup – Intraday Reclaim (3,658–3,656)
• Entry: 3,658 – 3,656
• Stop Loss: 3,651
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,665
TP2: 3,670
TP3: 3,675+
👉 Look for a sweep into the zone and an H1 close back above 3,656 to confirm order-flow continuation.
🔺 Buy Setup – Deep Discount Sweep (3,615–3,613)
• Entry: 3,615 – 3,613
• Stop Loss: 3,610
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,630
TP2: 3,645
TP3: 3,655+
👉 High R:R if liquidity runs into protected demand before New York session.
🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Sweep to Resistance (3,676–3,678)
• Entry: 3,676 – 3,678
• Stop Loss: 3,683
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,665
TP2: 3,655
TP3: 3,645
👉 Expect stop-run above recent highs into premium; invalidate on strong H1 close above 3,683.
________________________________________
🔑 Strategy Note
Into Fed week, smart money often runs both sides of the book. Bias today favors: discount buys at 3,658–3,656 and 3,615–3,613, and a premium fade at 3,676–3,678. Use reduced size, wait for structure confirmation, and avoid holding through any unexpected Fed headlines or USD spikes.
GOLD DAILY PLAN 09/15: SMC & WYKOOF LOGIC🔎 Market Overview
Market Structure (SMC): Price is currently within a short-term descending channel but showing signs of Wyckoff accumulation around the 3620 – 3635 zone (Liquidity BUY). This is a key support area.
Wyckoff: After the supply test, price is likely to consolidate and then push upwards to sweep liquidity above (Liquidity SELL at 3688 – 3703).
Liquidity Zones:
Liquidity BUY: 3595 – 3592 (major demand area)
Liquidity SELL: 3688 – 3703 (profit-taking & potential reversal zone)
📌 Key Levels
Resistance: 3668 – 3688 – 3703
Support: 3634 – 3629 – 3622 – 3617
🟢 BUY Plan (Primary Setup)
Entry: 3595 – 3592
Stop Loss (SL): 3587 (below Liquidity BUY)
Take Profit (TP) targets:
TP1: 3615
TP2: 3625
TP3: 3635
TP4: 3645
Open TP: 3685 (extended Wyckoff target)
🔴 SELL Plan (Counter-trade)
Entry: 3698 – 3701 (Liquidity SELL zone)
Stop Loss (SL): 3706 (just above breakout trap)
Take Profit (TP) targets:
TP1: 3690
TP2: 3680
TP3: 3670
TP4: 3660
Open TP: 3650
⚡ Scalping Strategy
Only enter when confirmation signals occur at Order Blocks (OB) or Liquidity Zones.
Prioritise BUY trades at support and SELL trades at resistance.
Apply strict risk management: no more than 1–2% risk per trade.
✅ Conclusion:
Main directional bias for the day: BUY from 3595 – 3592, targeting the 3685 – 3700 region.
At Liquidity SELL 3688 – 3703, short-term SELL setups can be considered with targets back to 3660 – 3650.
Gold Rally Exhaustion? Bearish Confluence Builds at the TopGold has rallied strongly into the $3,660s but is now pressing against the upper boundary of a rising wedge formation. Momentum is slowing as price consolidates near recent highs, with risk of a short-term correction building.
Bearish Confluences:
Rising wedge structure, often a bearish continuation/reversal signal.
Multiple rejection candles forming near wedge resistance.
Overextension above moving averages, leaving room for mean reversion.
Fibonacci Retracement Targets (from latest swing):
Bearish Confluences:
⚠️ Rising wedge structure → often a bearish signal.
🚫 Rejection candles stacking near resistance.
📏 Overextended above moving averages = room for pullback.
Fibonacci Retracement Targets 🎯
🔹 38.2% → $3,700.79
🔹 61.8% → $3,662.47
🔹 100% → $3,600.46
A break below wedge support could drag price into these levels, with $3,600 as the big magnet 🧲
⚠️ Invalidation: A decisive breakout above $3,762 would negate the bearish scenario and reopen upside continuation.
Gold Holds Above $3,640, Market Awaits Fresh Catalysts📊 Market Movement:
Gold is trading around $3,644/oz, consolidating in a narrow range after recent volatility. Investors remain cautious ahead of key Fed signals and U.S. economic data this week. A pause in the USD and U.S. bond yields is helping gold maintain crucial support.
📈 Technical Analysis:
• Near support: $3,638 – $3,632 (H1 EMA20 + Asian session low).
• Strong support: $3,620 (multiple tested lows).
• Near resistance: $3,650 – $3,655 (Asian session high).
• Strong resistance: $3,668 – $3,672 (H4 EMA50 + strong supply zone).
• RSI on H1 remains above 50, showing mild bullish momentum.
🤔 Outlook:
Gold is trading sideways within $3,638 – $3,655. A breakout above $3,655 may open the way to $3,670. Conversely, a breakdown below $3,632 could trigger a decline toward $3,620. The short-term trend remains in consolidation, awaiting a breakout signal.
🎯 Trading Strategy:
SELL XAU/USD: $3,655 – $3,658
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
❌ SL: $3661
BUY XAU/USD: $3,638 – $3,635
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
❌ SL: $3632
GOLD 7:00 PM (WAT):
Federal Funds Rate Announcement: The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a change in the federal funds target rate, currently ranging between 4.25% and 4.50%. Market consensus overwhelmingly anticipates a rate cut of 25 basis points, lowering the range to 4.00%-4.25%. This would be the first rate reduction in 2025, driven by weakening labor market indicators despite ongoing inflation concerns.
FOMC Economic Projections: Updated economic forecasts from the FOMC, including GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation outlooks, will be released.
FOMC Statement: The official policy statement explaining the rationale behind the interest rate decision and economic outlook will be published.
7:30 PM (WAT):
FOMC Press Conference: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will hold a press conference to discuss the FOMC's decisions, economic conditions, and policy direction, providing additional insights and answering questions.
Context and Expectations:
The rate cut is prompted by signs of a slowing U.S. jobs market and a reassessment of inflation risks amid continued trade uncertainties.
The Fed has maintained rates in the 4.25%-4.5% range since December 2024, amidst political pressure and mixed economic signals.
Markets are pricing in multiple rate cuts this year, with expectations of gradual easing.
This FOMC meeting and its communications will be crucial for understanding the Fed's stance on monetary policy and its implications for markets, inflation, and economic growth.
WATCH 3686 AND 3688 CLOSE OF 15MIN CANDLE above structure.if sellers dont respect the supply zone ,then we look for buy and target 3735-3725 on FOMC DATA REPORT.
#GOLD #XAUUSD
Gold at the Fed’s Crossroads: Bearish Windfall of 500–1000 PipsToday, we accurately grasped the rhythm of gold's fluctuations. In the previous trading idea, we clearly pointed out that gold is likely to reach the 3700-3710 area, and the latest trading plan is to continue shorting gold near this area, with the expected primary retracement target at 3680-3670. Obviously, even in the market's clamor for a rise, we are sticking to our trading logic, accurately grasping the volatility high near 3703 to short gold, and directly hitting TP: 3680. A very good short-term short trade!
For the gold market, the next highlight will of course be the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its interest rate decision.Market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve are rising, and there are also bets that there will be three rate cuts this year, with the first starting this week. Gold certainly lived up to expectations and, fueled by market expectations of a rate cut, soared all the way to over 3,700. So, what are my thoughts on the gold market regarding the upcoming Fed interest rate decision?
In fact, judging from the current U.S. economic and inflation data, as well as current market expectations, there are only two possibilities for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision: a 25 basis point cut or a 50 basis point cut.
If the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points, falling short of market expectations, the gold market could experience a surge followed by a decline, with the inflection point likely located between 3705 and 3715.
If the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points, in line with market expectations, bullish sentiment will intensify, with buying funds continuing to push gold higher, potentially reaching around 3730-3735, where a turning point could occur.
However, considering that gold prices already surged ahead of the Fed's rate announcement, this move is likely intended to create room for further declines. Furthermore, given the "buy expectations, sell the facts" phenomenon, gold is likely to experience a surge followed by a decline. Furthermore, I believe the Fed is likely to adopt a gradual approach to rate cuts, so I believe the most likely rate cut will be 25 basis points, with the inflection point likely located between 3705 and 3715.
Therefore, we can focus on the opportunity to short gold in the 3705-3715 area. Even if gold continues to rise, we can pay attention to the short trading opportunities near the extreme area of 3730-3735. Once gold experiences a sharp pullback, it may trigger large funds to take profits and panic selling, and gold may continue to fall to around 3650 or even around 3630.
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 15/09/2025
1. Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Momentum is about to enter the oversold zone. At the beginning of next week (Monday), D1 may officially enter the oversold area and start reversing upward.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is also approaching the oversold zone and preparing to reverse. This opens the expectation of a bullish move within the next 1–2 sessions.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum is currently declining, so there may be one more short-term drop to push H1 into oversold conditions before a potential reversal.
________________________________________
2. Wave Structure
• D1 timeframe:
Price is still within wave iv (black). In terms of time, wave ii (black) took 7 daily candles to complete. According to the principle of alternation, waves 2 and 4 often differ in nature. With D1 momentum about to reach oversold, there is a high probability that wave iv (black) is near completion.
• H4 timeframe:
Price is moving sideways, which is consistent with the characteristics of wave iv. If in the next session H4 momentum reverses upward and reaches overbought while price still fails to break above 3657, then the corrective structure may evolve into a triangle or a double three (WXY).
• H1 timeframe:
An ABC corrective structure seems completed, but instead of rallying, price continues to consolidate within the liquidity block at 3657 – 3631. This suggests a more complex structure is unfolding, either a triangle or a WXY combination.
With D1 momentum heading into oversold, the expected downside range is 3631 – 3595, which also aligns with the nearest high-liquidity zones on the chart.
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3. Price Zones & Targets
• Breakout level:
o 3657 → A strong candle close above this level would confirm a buy signal.
• Support / Buy zones:
o 3631 – 3632 → Possible bottom of the current correction.
o 3593 – 3596 → Scenario if wave iv develops into a WXY structure.
• Wave v (black) target:
o Projection: 3709 (main target).
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4. Trading Plan
1. Buy Breakout 3657
o SL: below breakout candle
o TP: 3709
2. Buy Zone 3632 – 3630
o SL: 3622
o TP: 3709
3. Buy Zone 3596 – 3593
o SL: 3585
o TP: 3709
________________________________________
👉 Summary: Both D1 and H4 momentum are approaching oversold, signaling that wave iv (black) may soon complete. The preferred strategy is to wait for confirmation at liquidity zones (3631 – 3595), or for a strong breakout above 3657, to join the next bullish wave v (black) targeting 3709.
XAUUSD3 week continue long on gold after breaking 3500 , it took 3 month around , are we looking for 4000 coming within this month? is gold short or keep up trend.? i am sure everyone have this question in mind.
i have drawed line to understand what could happend as it is an analysis base on education, every price need to be confirmed after breakout and retested with rejection,,, and it take time to predict the direction of the market.
i had a great 3 week. how about you leave your thoughts in the comment.
Gold Outlook: Bearish Below 3,629 High Volatility Ahead CPIGOLD – Overview
Gold is expected to see high volatility today ahead of the U.S. CPI release.
📉 Bearish scenario: Before the data, price may test 3,621 → 3,612, with deeper risk toward 3,600. Stability below 3,629 would confirm bearish continuation.
📈 Bullish scenario: A 1H close above 3,630 would shift bias bullish, targeting 3,640 → 3,657 → 3,683 (ATH zone).
⚠️ CPI impact:
Above 2.9% → bearish momentum likely, with downside toward 3,600.
At 2.9% → likely bearish volatility.
Below 2.9% → supports strong bullish rally toward new ATH levels.
Key Levels
Pivot: 3,629
Resistance: 3,640 – 3,657 – 3,683
Support: 3,621 – 3,612 – 3,600
GOLD Resistance Cluster Above!
HI,Traders !
#GOLD made a bearish
Breakout of the support
Cluster of the rising and
Horizontal support levels
Which is now a resistance
Cluster round 3661$ then
Went down and made a local
Pullback on but we are bearish
Biased mid-term so we
Will be expecting a further
Bearish move down this week !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
Overestimate and undervalue, opportunities abound!The range operation ideas we shared have been verified to be correct again. We have perfectly grasped the market rhythm by going short first and then long. Congratulations to friends who are paying attention. After the US market, gold fell to the key support area of 3630-3620 and then rebounded quickly. At present, we continue to focus on the short pressure position of 3670-3690. This position is not only the pressure near the 5-day line, but also the upper pressure area of the hourly chart moving average band. In the short term, it may become the core area of the bull-bear game.
Although the interest rate cut has been implemented, the market focus has shifted to whether the pace and magnitude of future rate cuts will increase. The marginal benefits to bulls are weakening. Therefore, the short-term recommendation is still to sell high and buy low in the range, and not to chase highs and sell lows. If your recent operations are not ideal, or you want to make your investment more stable, you are welcome to communicate with me at any time, and I will help optimize the strategy.
From the 4-hour level, 3630-3620 is still the key defensive support level. If it falls below this area, the bullish and bearish pattern in the future market may change; and 3670-3690 is still a strong pressure. Strategically, we will continue to use this range as the core for long and short layout. In the middle position, we should watch more and do less, and wait patiently for the key points before entering the market to avoid unnecessary risks brought by frequent chasing orders.
Gold operation strategy: When it falls back to the 3630-3620 area, lightly arrange long orders, and first target 3660-3670. When it touches the upper pressure, you can gradually reduce the position and take profit to provide protection.
XAU/USD Update 2Next move on the way, focus on proper risk management & stay disciplined. Wishing you successful trades..!
Key Reason:
1. Bullish structure.
2. Fresh Demand zone.
3. Price hunt pre SSL and then it will move again upside.
4. Bullish confirmation is very important. From this demand zone we'll see further upside move.
This is not a financial advise. Let's see how it will work.
Gold Trade Setup (XAUUSD)Entry: Short on 15-min close below 3661
Target: 3634
Stop Loss: Just above 3661 (to manage risk)
Reasoning: Break and close below key intraday support at 3661 signals potential downside momentum toward 3634 support zone.
💡 Wait for candle confirmation before entering. Manage risk with proper lot sizing.