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Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 15/09/2025 1. Momentum • D1 timeframe: Momentum is about to enter the oversold zone. At the beginning of next week (Monday), D1 may officially enter the oversold area and start reversing upward. • H4 timeframe: Momentum is also approaching the oversold zone and preparing to reverse. This opens the expectation of a bullish move within the next 1–2 sessions. • H1 timeframe: Momentum is currently declining, so there may be one more short-term drop to push H1 into oversold conditions before a potential reversal. ________________________________________ 2. Wave Structure • D1 timeframe: Price is still within wave iv (black). In terms of time, wave ii (black) took 7 daily candles to complete. According to the principle of alternation, waves 2 and 4 often differ in nature. With D1 momentum about to reach oversold, there is a high probability that wave iv (black) is near completion. • H4 timeframe: Price is moving sideways, which is consistent with the characteristics of wave iv. If in the next session H4 momentum reverses upward and reaches overbought while price still fails to break above 3657, then the corrective structure may evolve into a triangle or a double three (WXY). • H1 timeframe: An ABC corrective structure seems completed, but instead of rallying, price continues to consolidate within the liquidity block at 3657 – 3631. This suggests a more complex structure is unfolding, either a triangle or a WXY combination. With D1 momentum heading into oversold, the expected downside range is 3631 – 3595, which also aligns with the nearest high-liquidity zones on the chart. ________________________________________ 3. Price Zones & Targets • Breakout level: o 3657 → A strong candle close above this level would confirm a buy signal. • Support / Buy zones: o 3631 – 3632 → Possible bottom of the current correction. o 3593 – 3596 → Scenario if wave iv develops into a WXY structure. • Wave v (black) target: o Projection: 3709 (main target). ________________________________________ 4. Trading Plan 1. Buy Breakout 3657 o SL: below breakout candle o TP: 3709 2. Buy Zone 3632 – 3630 o SL: 3622 o TP: 3709 3. Buy Zone 3596 – 3593 o SL: 3585 o TP: 3709 ________________________________________ 👉 Summary: Both D1 and H4 momentum are approaching oversold, signaling that wave iv (black) may soon complete. The preferred strategy is to wait for confirmation at liquidity zones (3631 – 3595), or for a strong breakout above 3657, to join the next bullish wave v (black) targeting 3709.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
Gold Rally Exhaustion? Bearish Confluence Builds at the TopGold has rallied strongly into the $3,660s but is now pressing against the upper boundary of a rising wedge formation. Momentum is slowing as price consolidates near recent highs, with risk of a short-term correction building. Bearish Confluences: Rising wedge structure, often a bearish continuation/reversal signal. Multiple rejection candles forming near wedge resistance. Overextension above moving averages, leaving room for mean reversion. Fibonacci Retracement Targets (from latest swing): Bearish Confluences: ⚠️ Rising wedge structure → often a bearish signal. 🚫 Rejection candles stacking near resistance. 📏 Overextended above moving averages = room for pullback. Fibonacci Retracement Targets 🎯 🔹 38.2% → $3,700.79 🔹 61.8% → $3,662.47 🔹 100% → $3,600.46 A break below wedge support could drag price into these levels, with $3,600 as the big magnet 🧲 ⚠️ Invalidation: A decisive breakout above $3,762 would negate the bearish scenario and reopen upside continuation.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VisionaryInsights
XAUUSD3 week continue long on gold after breaking 3500 , it took 3 month around , are we looking for 4000 coming within this month? is gold short or keep up trend.? i am sure everyone have this question in mind. i have drawed line to understand what could happend as it is an analysis base on education, every price need to be confirmed after breakout and retested with rejection,,, and it take time to predict the direction of the market. i had a great 3 week. how about you leave your thoughts in the comment.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Time-Win
Gold Set to Extend Gains as Fed Rate Cuts Loom📊 Market Developments: Gold is supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates, lowering the opportunity cost of holding bullion. Recent U.S. labor market data showed weakness, with higher jobless claims and downward revisions in nonfarm payrolls. CPI inflation remains elevated, while PPI softened slightly, reinforcing bets on policy easing. A weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields further boost gold’s appeal. 📉 Technical Analysis: • Key Resistance: $3,670 – $3,674, with further upside potential toward $3,700–$3,730. • Nearest Support: $3,600; if broken, next levels at $3,561–$3,536. • EMA: Price is trading above EMA50 and EMA200, keeping the bullish structure intact. • Candlestick / Momentum: RSI remains elevated, showing strong upward momentum though slightly overbought; dips are being bought quickly. 📌 Outlook: Gold may continue to rise in the short term if Fed maintains a dovish stance and U.S. data remain soft. However, stronger-than-expected inflation or hawkish Fed signals could trigger a pullback toward $3,600 or lower. ________________________________________ 💡 Suggested Trading Strategy: • SELL XAU/USD: $3,682 – $3,685 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips ❌ SL: $3688 • BUY XAU/USD: $3,617 – $3,620 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips ❌ SL: $3614
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mian-FXSignals
Gold : Neutral Between 3,640–3,657, Breakout to DecideGold – Overview Gold hit a fresh record high at $3,659 on Tuesday, supported by weak U.S. jobs data and growing bets on Fed rate cuts. Traders now await key U.S. inflation releases – PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday – which could drive the next major move. 📊 If inflation comes in hotter than expected, gold risks a sharp correction. 📊 If inflation is weaker, expectations for a 50 bps Fed rate cut could lift gold further. Technical Outlook: 🔻 While below 3,657, price may correct toward 3,640. A 15M close below 3,640 would extend the decline to 3,629. 🔺 Stability above 3,657 on a 15M close would support further upside toward 3,665 → 3,683. Key Levels: Pivot: 3,657 Support: 3,640 – 3,629 – 3,612 Resistance: 3,665 – 3,683 previous idea:
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi
XAUUSD Gold Intraday Move 12.09.2025Intraday Analysis The market has recently broken out of a descending trendline, showing signs of bullish momentum. After the breakout, price retraced toward previous supply turned demand zones, creating potential buying opportunities at key levels. Key Observations: Trendline Breakout: The downward trendline has been broken, indicating a possible shift in momentum from bearish to bullish. Retests of the broken structure often provide high-probability entries. Demand Zones: Zone 1 (3630–3633): This level aligns with a prior consolidation area and trendline retest. A bounce here could trigger continuation toward higher resistance. Zone 2 (3612–3616): This is a deeper support zone and serves as a secondary buying opportunity if the first level fails. Targets and Risk Management: For Zone 1, the upside target is 3657 with a protective stop below 3622. For Zone 2, the upside target is 3640 with a stop below 3606. Both setups provide a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. Confirmation Requirement: Entries should only be considered once at least two confirmations are present. Possible confirmations include: Bullish candlestick patterns (engulfing, pin bar, or strong rejection wicks). Break of minor intraday structure to the upside. Volume spike or momentum divergence supporting the bullish bias. Conclusion: The bias remains bullish while above 3612. The first area of interest is 3630–3633 for a potential long entry toward 3657. If price dips deeper, the 3612–3616 zone provides the next opportunity for a bounce targeting 3640. Proper confirmation is essential before committing to trades, and stops should be respected to manage risk effectively.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by QuinnReed_Charts
Correction down for goldHi traders, Last week gold went exactly as I've said in my previous outlook. After a small correction down it went up again. Then it started a bigger correction down (orange wave 4). Next week we could see some more downside to finish the correction, but after that this pair could go up again. Let's see what price does and react. Trade idea: Wait for the correction down to finish and the next impulsive wave up. After a small correction down on a lower timeframe and a change in orderflow to bullish you could trade longs again. If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis. Don't be emotional, just trade your plan! Eduwave
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EduwaveTrading
Gold Pulls Back Short-Term After Hitting $3,673📊 Market Overview: • Gold eased after touching $3,673, pressured by profit-taking and a slight rebound in the U.S. Dollar. • Expectations of Fed rate cuts continue to support gold in the medium term, but near-term correction pressure is dominant. • Geopolitical tensions and bullish forecasts of $3,800–$4,000 remain longer-term supportive factors. 📉 Technical Analysis: • Key Resistance: $3,645 – $3,670 • Nearest Support: $3,600, further down $3,585 • EMA 09: Price is currently below EMA 09, signaling short-term bearish pressure. • Candles / Momentum: After peaking at $3,673, gold formed a corrective sequence; RSI has cooled off from overbought, confirming selling pressure in the short term. • Fibonacci Extensions: A breakout above $3,670 could open the way toward $3,697 and $3,725. 📌 Outlook: In the short term, gold is likely to continue correcting toward $3,600 before buyers may step back in. A reclaim of EMA 09 and a breakout above $3,670 could extend the bullish move toward $3,697 – $3,725. 💡 Suggested Trading Strategy: 🔻 SELL XAU/USD : $3,670 – $3,673 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips 🛑 SL: $3676 🔺 BUY XAU/USD : $3,602 – $3,605 🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips 🛑 SL: $3,599
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mian-FXSignals
GOLD TECHNICAL & ORDER FLOW ANALYSISOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis. Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level. DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you. Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Derry_Trades
Gold at the Fed’s Crossroads: Bearish Windfall of 500–1000 PipsToday, we accurately grasped the rhythm of gold's fluctuations. In the previous trading idea, we clearly pointed out that gold is likely to reach the 3700-3710 area, and the latest trading plan is to continue shorting gold near this area, with the expected primary retracement target at 3680-3670. Obviously, even in the market's clamor for a rise, we are sticking to our trading logic, accurately grasping the volatility high near 3703 to short gold, and directly hitting TP: 3680. A very good short-term short trade! For the gold market, the next highlight will of course be the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its interest rate decision.Market expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve are rising, and there are also bets that there will be three rate cuts this year, with the first starting this week. Gold certainly lived up to expectations and, fueled by market expectations of a rate cut, soared all the way to over 3,700. So, what are my thoughts on the gold market regarding the upcoming Fed interest rate decision? In fact, judging from the current U.S. economic and inflation data, as well as current market expectations, there are only two possibilities for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision: a 25 basis point cut or a 50 basis point cut. If the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points, falling short of market expectations, the gold market could experience a surge followed by a decline, with the inflection point likely located between 3705 and 3715. If the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points, in line with market expectations, bullish sentiment will intensify, with buying funds continuing to push gold higher, potentially reaching around 3730-3735, where a turning point could occur. However, considering that gold prices already surged ahead of the Fed's rate announcement, this move is likely intended to create room for further declines. Furthermore, given the "buy expectations, sell the facts" phenomenon, gold is likely to experience a surge followed by a decline. Furthermore, I believe the Fed is likely to adopt a gradual approach to rate cuts, so I believe the most likely rate cut will be 25 basis points, with the inflection point likely located between 3705 and 3715. Therefore, we can focus on the opportunity to short gold in the 3705-3715 area. Even if gold continues to rise, we can pay attention to the short trading opportunities near the extreme area of 3730-3735. Once gold experiences a sharp pullback, it may trigger large funds to take profits and panic selling, and gold may continue to fall to around 3650 or even around 3630.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PriceSniper_Steffen
3655-3625 oscillation structure, sell high and buy low#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD Over the weekend, I reminded everyone to pay attention to a hidden piece of news.💻 China and the United States are currently holding their fourth round of talks in Spain on economic and trade issues, which involves tariffs. The outcome of the game between the two major powers will also affect the trend of gold. 📊The two sides are still negotiating, so please continue to pay attention.👀 Gold continued to fluctuate in the box at the opening today, fell slightly during the day and rebounded after testing the support below again. 🌈The short-term upward pressure still remains at 3655-3665. 📉I have repeatedly emphasized that only by breaking through and stabilizing above can gold continue to open up upward space. If it is difficult to break through during the day, gold will continue to fluctuate and pull back. The price of gold is still in an upward channel. The correction range of gold at high levels is limited. The short-term support below is 3635-3625.🥅 Before it effectively falls below the support, it is difficult for gold to change the volatile pattern. However, if the price breaks below support and breaks the box structure, it is very likely to test the 3600 mark, or even the important support level of 3580.🐻 If the 3655-3625 box is not broken during the day, the buy low-sell high strategy will be maintained. 📊If it falls back to 3635-3625, you can continue to go long on gold, with the target at 3655-3665. If the upper resistance is touched, you can short gold with a light position.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TP-Halson
XAU OUTLOOKHey Guys, A new Day and A New week. Let's dive into this. BUY/SELL SCENARIOS: BUYS: 1)Retest the 1h Bullish OB at the 3636.14 level. 2)Create a 3/5m BullishCHoCH with a body candle close (with aFVG). 3)Retest the 3/5m Bullish CHoCH level to capitalise on BUYS towards the 3675.00 level. SELLS: 1) Body candle close below the 3630.63 level. 2) Retest the failed 1h Bullish OB at the 3630.63 level. 3) Create a 3/5m Bearish Engulfing candle to capitalize on SELLS towards the 3600.00 level This is what I foresee happening today during Asia/London. Trade Smart, Trade Safe. Cheers!!
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by paulsmith007
GOLD rebounds strongly, supported by US dataGold prices were volatile during the New York trading session on Thursday (September 11) due to the influence of the US CPI index and initial data on unemployment benefits applications. OANDA:XAUUSD price has recovered strongly during today's Asian session (September 12) and is currently trading at 3,647 USD/oz. Very weak initial U.S. jobless claims data eased concerns over inflation data. The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week remains high, supporting gold prices and recouping most of the day’s losses. Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose more than expected in August from the previous month, but the year-over-year increase was in line with expectations. The data showed that the CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month in August, beating the 0.3% forecast by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. However, the 2.9% year-over-year increase was in line with expectations. Moreover, the core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy components, rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, both in line with Dow Jones' forecasts. Meanwhile, the US labor market is showing signs of slowing: weekly jobless claims unexpectedly jumped on Thursday after jobs growth data was revised down earlier this week. In the week ending September 6, initial jobless claims rose 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 263,000, the highest since October 2021, far exceeding market expectations of 235,000. Initial data on unemployment claims 'saved' OANDA:XAUUSD Gold rallies after finding support at the 0.382% Fibonacci extension trendline note to readers in yesterday's issue. The rally has now just cleared the 0.50% Fibonacci level, which provides the initial conditions for a possible retest of the all-time high at the 0.618% Fibonacci level. The technical structure has not changed much with the uptrend dominating the market, from the uptrend channel as the main trend, the main support from EMA21 while RSI has not shown any signal for the possibility of a price decrease. Therefore, the technical chart summary is completely uptrend and the notable price points during the day will be listed as follows. Support: 3,613 - 3,600 USD Resistance: 3,645 - 3,677 USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3682 - 3680⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3686 →Take Profit 1 3674 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3668 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3530 - 3532⚡️ ↠↠ Stop Loss 3526 →Take Profit 1 3538 ↨ →Take Profit 2 3544
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Xayah_trading
Gold 1H – Breakout Liquidity Trap Ahead of ExpansionGold on the 1H timeframe is consolidating near 3,652 after sweeping discount liquidity and reclaiming structure. Price has tapped into the breakout zone and is now positioned between premium scalp supply and higher liquidity pools. The structure suggests engineered plays into 3,656–3,658 or deeper liquidity toward 3,672–3,674 before expansion. Discount demand remains protected at 3,614–3,612. ________________________________________ 📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H): • 🔴 SELL ZONE 3,672 – 3,674 (SL 3,679): Premium supply pocket for engineered rejection targeting 3,660 → 3,650 → 3,640. • 🔴 SELL SCALP 3,656 – 3,658 (SL 3,663): Short-term premium sweep zone for intraday liquidity grabs targeting 3,645 → 3,640. • 🟢 BUY ZONE 3,614 – 3,612 (SL 3,607): Discount demand block aligned with bullish order flow targeting 3,630 → 3,640 → 3,655. ________________________________________ 📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based): 🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Scalp Rejection • Entry: 3,656 – 3,658 • Stop Loss: 3,663 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,645  TP2: 3,640 👉 Intraday scalp opportunity if price sweeps into shallow premium liquidity. 🔻 Sell Setup – Deeper Premium Sweep • Entry: 3,672 – 3,674 • Stop Loss: 3,679 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,660  TP2: 3,650  TP3: 3,640 👉 Expect engineered sweep into higher premium before reversal. 🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Demand Reaction • Entry: 3,614 – 3,612 • Stop Loss: 3,607 • Take Profits:  TP1: 3,630  TP2: 3,640  TP3: 3,655 👉 High R:R play if price retraces to protected demand before expansion. ________________________________________ 🔑 Strategy Note Smart money is likely to manipulate both premium and discount zones around the breakout point. Bias favors: • Scalp sells at 3,656–3,658 • Swing sells at 3,672–3,674 • Discount buys at 3,614–3,612 Risk management is critical — expect liquidity sweeps both sides before real expansion.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_TitanTrader
XAUUSD 30M – Intraday Plan Around the RangePrice is holding between $3,657.17 (resistance) and $3,626.93 (support). We’re trading around $3,652–$3,653 just below resistance. Scalps can work, but bigger moves need confirmation. 🔼 Bullish Plan (primary focus – aligned with fundamentals) Trigger: A clean 30min body close above $3,657.17 (not just a wick). Targets: $3,660.30 → $3,664.53 → $3,666.14 Management: Take partials at $3,660.30, move SL to breakeven once $3,657 holds on retest. 🔽 Bearish Plan (secondary, cleaner below support) Trigger: 30min body close below $3,626.93. Targets: $3,624.52 → $3,623.32 → $3,621.49 Management: Scale partials at $3,624.52, protect the rest at breakeven. 🌍 Fundamentals: CPI bit hotter than expected → supports Fed rate cuts (odds at 100%). Real yields declining + strong central bank demand → keeps gold structurally bullish. 🔄 Range Scalp (higher risk, small size) Shorts: $3,656–$3,657 on rejection → aim $3,650–$3,652, SL above $3,660. Longs: $3,627–$3,628 on rejection wick → aim $3,636–$3,640, SL below $3,624. ✅ Break Confirmation Strong 30min close through $3,657 or $3,626. ❌ Invalidation Breakout closes back inside the box (trap). Multiple wicks with no continuation. 📌 Bottom Line Above $3,657.17 → bullish bias to $3,660 → $3,666. Below $3,626.93 → bearish bias to $3,624 → $3,621. Inside the box = scalp only, risk tight.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by fxt8
xauusd4hTrading Outlooks for the Week Ahead In this series of analyses, we review short-term trading outlooks and perspectives. As can be seen, in each analysis there is a key support/resistance zone close to the current price of the asset. The market’s reaction to or breakout from these levels will determine the next price movement toward the specified targets. Important Note: The purpose of these trading outlooks is to highlight critical price levels ahead and the market’s potential reactions to them. The analyses provided are by no means trading signals!
FX:XAUUSD
by esmaeilesmaeilzade_fx
If gold stays above 3,585 and breaks 3,680, it could target 3,70 External News Factors Gold is supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, which continues to drive safe-haven inflows. Additionally, geopolitical tensions (Russia–Ukraine, Middle East) and concerns over the U.S. debt crisis (interest payments surpassing $1.1 trillion, fiscal deficit nearing $2 trillion) further strengthen gold’s bullish momentum. The U.S. dollar is showing slight weakness, adding more fuel to gold’s upside. Overall Trend Gold (XAU/USD) is in a strong uptrend, clearly shown by the steep rally from the support area around ~3,420 USD. Price has already broken through several key Fibonacci retracement levels and is now testing the upper resistance zone (~3,650 – 3,680 USD). Key Support and Resistance Main Resistance: 3,650 – 3,681 USD (red zone on the chart). This is a strong supply zone where price is consolidating. Nearest Support: Around 3,585 – 3,517 USD (Fibo 0.786 and 0.618 levels). Major Support: 3,420 USD (aligned with Fibo 0.382 and the previous consolidation area marked “SUPPORT”). Price Pattern Within the resistance zone, price is showing signs of forming a triangle/sideways accumulation pattern. A breakout to the upside could confirm a continuation pattern (trend continuation). Trade Scenarios Bullish Scenario (preferred): If gold holds above 3,585 and breaks through 3,680, the next target would be the psychological level of 3,700 – 3,720 USD. Bearish/Correction Scenario: If price fails to hold 3,585, it could retrace deeper to 3,517 or even 3,420 before buyers step in again. 👉 In summary: The main trend remains bullish. Gold needs to consolidate and decisively break above 3,680 to aim for 3,700+. If it fails, a pullback towards 3,585 – 3,517 is likely before another buying opportunity.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AstronautPioneer
CPI data is confusing,gold is fluctuating in a bearish directionGold Technical Analysis: Looking back at the recent trend, gold surged and then retreated on Tuesday, forming a shooting star pattern. However, the decline did not continue on Wednesday, indicating that the pullback was merely a one-off adjustment and lacks sustainability. It is a normal correction after a significant rally. Even if the market peaks, it will not be so simple. It will at least undergo a process of "high-level fluctuations turning bearish" or "second upward attack to lure more investors and then decline." In the short term, the rebound will continue to fluctuate, and it is unlikely to see significant rises or falls in a short period of time. Looking at the daily gold chart, the daily gold line has slowed down slightly. After continuous large volume, the daily line has turned into a small Yinxing candlestick pattern for consolidation. There is a need for a short-term pullback. Considering the short-term chart, the second high-point test failed to break through the previous high, the previous continuous large volume without a pullback, and the pressure from the second upward test. If there is no new high in the short term, there will be a partial correction around 3675-3657. The pattern will determine whether it is a deep pullback or a sideways consolidation. Judging from the 4-hour gold chart, yesterday's gold price failed to achieve results in its attempt to rise again. There are signs of a downward correction. The 4-hour chart lost the middle track, breaking the unilateral upward momentum. At the same time, there is a need to further retrace to the lower track. Combined with the second high in the hourly chart near 3657, the second pressure turned into a decline. The strong market is to retrace and then break the high. Once the breaking power is stopped, it will go into a shock correction. Overall, today's short-term gold operation strategy recommends shorting on rebounds as the main strategy, and buying on pullbacks as the auxiliary strategy. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3640-3650 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3610-3600 support line.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldenTrack_Daniel