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What will happen to gold on November 3rd? I. Market Analysis Trend Structure Weekly Chart: Price is below the 5-week moving average, with the MACD showing a bearish crossover. Bearish forces dominate in the near term. However, the long-term ascending trendline support is near $3900. The long-term trend remains cautiously bullish as long as this level holds decisively. Daily Chart: Moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and the Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, with price pressured near the middle/lower band. Key resistance is at 4046. Support is focused in the 3972-3950 zone. A break below 3972 could lead to a further decline towards 3950-3900. Key Support & Resistance Levels Resistance Zone: 4010 (Weakness Boundary) → 4023-4035 (Core Short Area) → 4047-4055 (Strong Resistance). Support Zone: 3980 (Initial Support) → 3950-3955 (Long Area) → 3915-3885 (Deep Correction Target). II. Trading Strategy Core Idea: Prioritize selling on rallies, with opportunistic buying near key support levels. Strict risk control is essential. Short Strategy (Primary) Entry Zone: Enter short positions in batches between 4030-4035. Consider adding to shorts if price reaches 4047-4055. Stop Loss: Above 4040-4060 (Adjust flexibly between 8-10 pips based on position size). Targets: First target 3980, Second target 3960-3950 (Hold if broken). Long Strategy (Secondary) Entry Condition: Consider light long positions upon stabilization in the 3950-3955 zone after a pullback. Stop Loss: Below 3940 (8-10 pips). Targets: First target 3980-4000, Second target 4010 (Follow up if broken). III. Risk Control Essentials Position Management: Single trade position ≤ 5% of capital. Avoid heavy positions. Stop-Loss Discipline: Strictly place stops for shorts above 4060 and for longs below 3940. Contingency Alert: Monitor the US Dollar Index, Fed policy动向, and geopolitical risks closely. Adjust strategies promptly if key levels are breached. IV. Summary Gold's short-term technical posture is bearish, but the long-term trend requires monitoring the effectiveness of the 3900 support. If price rallies and faces resistance in the 4030-4055 zone next Monday, prioritize short entries. If price pulls back and stabilizes near 3950, consider light long positions for a bounce. If price strongly breaks above 4060 or below 3940, a reassessment of the trend will be necessary.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Golden_Opportunities
Liquidity’s Loading… Choose Your SideVANTAGE:XAUUSD Outlook 🧐 We got an X formation right on the chart and price is chilling above the pilot line, the line between calm and chaos. 📊 Short-term: Liquidity sweep still in play Break it, and we could dive to 3,940s. 📈 Mid-term : Pilot line holds → bulls reload Hold it, and Gold might wake up swinging back to 4,180+. 🔻 Short-Term Bias: Still leaning bearish, expecting possible sweeps above 4,020 before a pullback toward 3,980–3,940 OG zones. Mid-Term View: If price holds above those green zones and the daily trendline, momentum could shift back up toward 4,120–4,180 📅 Macro Watch: This week’s NFP & Core PCE data will likely move Gold Strong numbers → USD up, Gold pressure Weak data → USD down, Gold bounce potential Market is coiling before the storm🥶stay patient, trade levels, not emotions.
VANTAGE:XAUUSD
by iamtradingdon
StevenTrading - $XAUUSD$: New Week Perspective – Prioritize...StevenTrading - OANDA:XAUUSD $: New Week Perspective – Prioritize BUYING According to Elliott Wave 5, Awaiting Range $3961$ Hello everyone, StevenTrading is back with the Gold scenario for the new trading week! After a period of strong volatility, I am leaning towards more buying scenarios according to Elliott Wave 5. Although retesting deeper support levels is possible, the technical structure still shows potential for price increase. Initially, the structure on H1 is showing that the price is moving sideways within a wide range. We will watch the price range to trade before Gold officially breaks the barrier!1. 📊 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE ANALYSIS Elliott Wave: Prioritize the development scenario of Wave 5. This reinforces the medium-term upward trend. H1 Structure: The price is fluctuating within a wide range, creating opportunities for Scalping/Day Trade at the upper/lower boundaries.2. 🎯 DETAILED TRADING PLAN (ACTION PLAN) Our trading strategy this week is to actively buy at the lower boundary and defensively sell at the upper boundary to maximize the price range. Primary BUY Scenario (BUY Primary): We will patiently wait for Gold to adjust to the $3961$ area, an important liquidity support zone (near the Buy Liquidity/Buy Zone on the charts). This is an ideal entry point to join the upward momentum according to Elliott Wave 5. The Buy order will be activated at $3961$ with a stop loss SL $3950$ (set below support $3954$) to preserve capital. Profit targets are divided into ascending levels: TP1 $3975$, TP2 $3990$, TP3 $4012$, and the final target is $4035$ as the price approaches the upper boundary. SELL Scalping Scenario: To defend and take advantage of the adjustment, we will watch to Sell just below the strong resistance area at $4050$ (near old resistances and barrier zones). The Sell order will be placed with a tight stop loss SL $4060$. Profit targets will be prioritized for short-term (Scalping) to quickly secure profits.3. 📌 SUMMARY & DISCIPLINE (Steven's Note)The goal is to patiently wait for $3961$ to execute the BUY position with the lowest risk, pursuing the Elliott Wave 5 target. Capital management discipline and compliance with SL are mandatory in this wide range trading phase. Are you ready to take advantage of this price range?
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Steven-GoldTrading
The gold-driven logic behind the US attack on VenezuelaThe "black swan" shock in the global crude oil market: Venezuela, as an important member of OPEC, produces 1.2 million barrels of oil per day (accounting for 1.3% of global crude oil supply), and controls 18% of the world's proven oil reserves. If the US military strike causes the paralysis of its oil facilities (such as the Maracaibo Lake oil field and the Caribbean Sea ports being bombed), global crude oil supply will instantly decrease by 1.2 million barrels per day. Coupled with the fact that the situation in the Middle East has not yet eased, the Brent crude oil price may soar from the current $85 per barrel to $120-130 per barrel, reaching a new high since 2022. The signal of restarting the inflation spiral: For every $10 increase in crude oil price per barrel, it will push up the US core CPI by 0.3-0.4 percentage points. If the oil price exceeds $120, the US CPI may return to above 4% in December 2025. This will completely reverse the market's expectation of "inflation moderation", and the demand for gold as an "inflation-resistant hard asset" will experience an explosive growth - during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the inflation concerns triggered by the oil price increase led to a 5.8% weekly increase in gold prices. This scenario shock is even stronger, with a weekly increase of over 7%. Next week's trading strategy and analysis buy：4000-4010 tp:4025-4035-4100 sl:3995
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: INTRADAY & SWING TRADING🔍 XAUUSD GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: COMPREHENSIVE DEEP DIVE FOR INTRADAY & SWING TRADING (NOV 3-7, 2025) 📊 Close Price Level: 4,003.18 USD (As of Nov 1, 2025 - 12:54 AM UTC+4) 💰 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📈 WEEKLY TIMEFRAME (1W) - MACRO PERSPECTIVE The weekly chart reveals a strong bullish trend with gold trading decisively above its 21-EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and 50-EMA support levels. Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows the price above the cloud, indicating sustained bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands are expanding in the upper region, suggesting strong uptrend continuation. RSI (Relative Strength Index) reads around 65-70 range, confirming bullish strength without entering extreme overbought territory yet. Support levels: 3,980 | Resistance: 4,020-4,050 💪 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 DAILY TIMEFRAME (1D) - TREND DIRECTION Daily analysis shows a solid uptrend structure with higher highs and higher lows formation—classic Dow Theory confirmation. The price is consolidating near the upper zone between 4,000-4,010. Harmonic Pattern Recognition: Potential Gartley pattern forming with precise ratios at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) sits at approximately 3,995, providing dynamic support. Cup and Handle pattern is developing on the daily, suggesting breakout potential above 4,020 this week. Volume profile shows institutional accumulation during dips. 📍 Key Levels - Daily: Support 3,975 | Midpoint 3,990 | Resistance 4,025 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⏱️ 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME (4H) - SWING TRADE FRAMEWORK The 4H chart is the primary swing trading timeframe . Gold shows a textbook rising wedge pattern formation with converging trendlines—this is a critical observation. Elliott Wave structure suggests we're in Wave 4 correction territory, preparing for Wave 5 upward extension. Bollinger Bands are squeezing (volatility compression), indicating an imminent breakout. RSI at 55-60 shows balanced momentum with room for bullish push. IMPORTANT: Watch the 4H support at 3,998 . A break below creates a bear trap opportunity. Alternatively, a breakout above 4,015 confirms wave 5 initiation. Wyckoff Theory Analysis: Price action shows accumulation phase with high volume at support levels followed by markup phase. Volume trend is constructive. Exponential MA Cross: 20-EMA above 50-EMA = bullish setup locked in. 🎯 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚡ 1-HOUR TIMEFRAME (1H) - INTRADAY TRADING Hourly timeframe reveals multiple reversal signals emerging. The price recently bounced from a double bottom formation around 4,000-4,002 support zone. Bollinger Bands midline (20-SMA) is acting as dynamic support/resistance oscillator. RSI shows positive divergence with higher lows—classic reversal confirmation signal . Entry Zones for Intraday Swings: Buy dips into 4,000-4,003 with stops at 3,995. Target 4,015 for quick 15-20 pips profit-taking. Ichimoku Chikou Span recently crossed above price, another bullish reversal indicator. Volume on recent upswings shows institutional participation. ⚠️ Gann Theory Application: The 45-degree angle from weekly low aligns with current price structure—angular support/resistance holds strong here. 📐 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔔 30-MINUTE TIMEFRAME (30M) - SCALP TO SWING BRIDGE The 30M shows short-term consolidation with bearish pennant formation —noting this is a correction pattern within the larger uptrend. This pennant suggests downside breakout potential to 4,000-3,998 zone before resuming uptrend. Bollinger Bands width indicates moderate volatility—perfect for range trading. RSI at 45-50 shows neutral zone , neither overbought nor oversold. Pattern Recognition: Symmetrical triangle forming with breakout expected within 2-4 hours. Volume declining into consolidation—classic pre-breakout setup. VWAP at 3,992 provides secondary support if pennant breaks downward. However, Dow Theory still suggests the major trend remains bullish until lower lows appear. 🎪 Trading Range: 3,998-4,008 for scalpers this session. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚙️ 15-MINUTE TIMEFRAME (15M) - MICRO STRUCTURE The 15M reveals highest volatility compression of all timeframes. This is the most dangerous zone for breakout traders. Bollinger Bands pinched to tightest range—explosion imminent. RSI bouncing between 40-60 shows indecision . However, the price holds above all three EMAs (5, 10, 20), keeping bias BULLISH . Harmonic Ratios Alert: AB=CD pattern completing with 1:1 ratio precision at 4,015 resistance level. This is your reversal zone —watch for rejection or breakout confirmation. VWAP showing gradual upward slope, slight bullish edge. Volume oscillator trending higher despite price consolidation. 📈 Microstructure Trade Setup: Break above 4,010 = BUY SIGNAL with target 4,018-4,022 🚀 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚡⚡ 5-MINUTE TIMEFRAME (5M) - ULTRA-INTRADAY The 5M is showing inverse head and shoulders pattern —classic bullish reversal setup on ultra-short timeframe. Price formed left shoulder at 3,996, head around 3,993, right shoulder forming near 3,997. Neckline resistance at 4,002 = breakout target. Bollinger Bands in expansion mode with bullish candles forming. RSI already recovering above 50—momentum turning positive. ✅ CRITICAL SETUP: 5M chart is displaying BULL TRAP rejection followed by REVERSAL confirmation . This is your intraday traders' goldmine setup. Volume surging on recent candles—institutional buyers stepping in. Ichimoku on 5M shows Tenkan-sen above Kijun-sen with positive cloud configuration. Exponential MAs all aligned bullish (5 > 10 > 20 > 50). This is textbook bullish alignment . 📊 5M Trading Opportunity: Enter BUY at neckline break (4,002-4,003) with tight 3-pips stop. Target 4,008-4,012 for quick scalp profits. ⭐ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📋 CONSOLIDATED TRADING STRATEGY FOR NOV 3-7, 2025 INTRADAY SCALP TRADERS (5M-15M): Focus on breaks above 4,010 with tight stops. Target quick 10-20 pips. Avoid trading below 4,000 support—risk/reward becomes unfavorable. SWING TRADERS (1H-4H): Key decision point at 4,020 breakout level. If confirmed on 4H close, next target 4,050-4,075 range. Stop loss at 3,995 (weekly support). Holding period: 3-5 days. POSITION TRADERS (1D-1W): Cup and Handle breakout completion expected. Once 4,020 breaks, potential move to 4,100+ within 2-3 weeks. This is accumulation phase completion. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT & VOLATILITY CONSIDERATIONS Bollinger Bands volatility expanding = expect larger candle swings. Set wider stops accordingly. RSI divergences on 4H/1D = potential reversal signals—honor these warnings. Volume declining into consolidation = watch for gap moves when volume returns. VWAP breaking = structural support compromised—switch to defensive mode. Ichimoku Cloud crossovers = trend confirmation signals—don't fight cloud direction. Maximum Leverage Recommendation: 1:5 ratio on this setup. Gold volatility demands respect. 💡 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 KEY SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS THIS WEEK CRITICAL SUPPORT ZONES: 3,975 (Weekly) | 3,990 (Daily VWAP) | 3,995-4,000 (Primary Short-term) | 4,003 (Current Price) CRITICAL RESISTANCE ZONES: 4,010-4,015 (1H Swing High) | 4,020 (Daily Breakout Level) | 4,035 (Weekly Resistance) | 4,050 (Major Target) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 HARMONIC & GANN PATTERN SUMMARY Gartley Pattern (Daily): 0.618 retracement zone provides precision entry signals. Formation suggests completion wave incoming. Gann Angles (4H): 45-degree support holding strong. Fan angles predict next resistance at 4,018-4,020. Cup & Handle (1D): Breakout above handle resistance = confirmed. Target = height of cup (minimum 50 pips move = 4,050+). Inverse Head & Shoulders (5M): Neckline at 4,002 is your battleground. Institutional accumulation visible. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔮 PROBABILITY WEIGHTED FORECAST (NOV 3-7) BULLISH SCENARIO (70% Probability): Breakout above 4,020 mid-week, targeting 4,050-4,075 by Friday close. Volume confirmation required. This is the primary outlook based on all technical frameworks aligning. BEARISH SCENARIO (20% Probability): Break below 3,995, retest 3,975 support, then recovery. This would create bear trap setup for aggressive buyers. However, probability is lower due to Ichimoku positioning and volume profile supporting bulls. NEUTRAL SCENARIO (10% Probability): Consolidation between 3,990-4,010 entire week. Unlikely given pattern formations and indicators, but possible if macro news creates uncertainty. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📌 TRADER CHECKLIST FOR THIS WEEK ✅ BEFORE TRADING: Review daily support/resistance levels | Check Ichimoku Cloud positioning | Confirm RSI alignment | Verify VWAP slope direction | Scan for volume profile changes ✅ DURING TRADES: Monitor 4H breakout confirmations | Watch for Bollinger Band extensions | Track volume participation | Honor Elliott Wave count updates | Use Gann angles as dynamic stops ✅ EXIT STRATEGY: Take 50% profit at first target (4,015) | Move stops to breakeven at +10 pips | Trail remaining position to 4,050 | Use Ichimoku cloud breaks as hard stops ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌟 CONCLUSION: WHY THIS SETUP IS COMPELLING The convergence of Elliott Wave Wave 5 setup, Harmonic Gartley completion, Cup & Handle breakout pattern, and synchronized bullish Ichimoku Cloud positioning creates a POWERFUL BULLISH CASE for XAUUSD this week. Bollinger Bands expansion, RSI positive divergences, and Dow Theory higher highs confirmation provide MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CONFIRMATION . Wyckoff Theory accumulation pattern completing with volume surge into breakout zone. The primary action this week: Watch 4,020 breakout on 4H timeframe. Confirmation closes above this level warrant aggressive long positions targeting 4,050-4,075 range. Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:3.5 (EXCELLENT for swing trades) | Win Rate: 70% based on pattern probability | Holding Period: 3-5 days maximum 🚀 TRADE SETUP RATING: 9/10 - HIGHLY RECOMMENDED FOR SWING TRADERS 🎖️ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ Disclaimer: This analysis is based on technical patterns and indicators as of November 1, 2025. Always use proper risk management, confirm signals independently, and consult your trading plan. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Trade responsibly.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by sunya
Emotional Debt: The Hidden Cost of Revenge Trading“You don’t lose the most money when you lose a trade. You lose it when you try to get it back.” Every trader has felt it — that sudden urge to “win it back.” You take one loss, then another, and before logic can speak, you’re already in a new position — not to trade, but to heal. That’s emotional debt — The invisible weight carried from one mistake into the next. What Is Emotional Debt? Just like financial debt, it compounds. A small emotional reaction today becomes a bigger one tomorrow. You start trading your frustration, not your system. You stop managing risk — because ego takes over management. You don’t see charts anymore. You only see revenge. How It Builds Up Ignoring losses instead of reflecting on them Measuring self-worth by daily profit or loss Forcing trades to “prove” something to yourself Confusing emotional recovery with market opportunity The Interest You Pay Emotional debt doesn’t just cost money — it costs focus. It clouds your judgment, narrows your vision, and pushes you further from the patience that once made you consistent. Breaking the Cycle Pause after every loss. Step away. Write what triggered your next impulse. Accept that no single trade can fix an emotional imbalance. Remember: You are not your last trade. When you clear emotional debt, you stop trading to recover — and start trading to understand. Let go of the need to get it back. The market gives clarity only to those who stop chasing closure. 📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror Have you ever caught yourself trading from emotion instead of structure? Share your thoughts — awareness begins with honesty.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ChartIsMirror
Oct 31, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Analysis: On the higher timeframes, bearish momentum is weakening while bullish strength is starting to emerge. If price breaks above 4047, watch the 4050 resistance closely — once price holds above 4050, bullish momentum should become clear, and the plan shifts to buying pullbacks into support. If price falls below 4016, bullish strength weakens, and the strategy turns to selling rallies into resistance. Also, keep an eye on 3960 — a break below this level would signal renewed bearish pressure. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: • 4085 – Resistance • 4073 – Resistance • 4065 – Resistance • 4043–4050 – Resistance zone • 4024 – Support • 4000 – Psychological level • 3987 – Support • 3978 – Support • 3960 – Key intraday support 📈 Intraday Strategy: SELL: If price breaks below 4016 → target 4011, with further downside toward 4008, 4001, 3995 BUY: If price holds above 4040 → target 4043, with further upside toward 4046, 4050, 4055
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ombabibi
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for October 30Gold Technical Analysis: Daily chart resistance: 4090, support: 3840. 4-hour chart resistance: 4050, support: 3890. 1-hour chart resistance: 4030, support: 3916. Technical Analysis: Gold prices rebounded technically after falling nearly 5% over four consecutive trading days. The market faced short-term headwinds due to Powell downplaying the possibility of a December rate cut; however, widening divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions have introduced new uncertainty to the market. Meanwhile, the trade easing agreement reached between the US and China has weakened safe-haven demand. The daily chart shows a stepped decline, with four consecutive days of losses up to the previous trading day, and the moving average system has formed a death cross. After the European market opened today, prices rebounded rapidly. Short-term resistance levels to watch are 4010 and 4030. If gold can hold above 4010 and remain firmly above 4000, it will likely attract previous buying interest and resume its long-term upward trend. Conversely, if gold fails to recover and hold above 4000, selling on rallies is advisable. Looking at the 1-hour chart, the moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the MACD/KDJ indicators are providing upward momentum. In the short term, focus on the continuation of the upward trend, paying particular attention to yesterday's rebound high of 4006 and the previous trading day's rebound high around 4030. Trading Strategy: SELL: 4050~4056 near BUY: 3966~3960 near More Analysis →
TVC:GOLDLong
by ActuaryJ
GOLD Under Pressure! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for GOLD is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 4023.4 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 3987.3 My Stop Loss - 4041.7 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by AnabelSignals
2
Gold price analysis on October 30Fundamental Analysis Gold prices remained confined within a familiar range, despite the volatility caused by the US Federal Reserve's key monetary policy decision on Wednesday. Powell noted that policymakers may be more cautious if this prevents them from releasing further reports on jobs and inflation. Markets are now pricing in a 67.8% chance of the Fed keeping rates unchanged at its December 10 meeting, compared with a 9.1% chance before the Fed's announcement. President Trump said he hoped to reduce US tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for Beijing's commitment to curbing fentanyl precursor exports. Technical Analysis Gold gained ground in Asia and is eyeing a return to the 4000 handle, which could happen early today as more supportive news comes in. The weekly peak around 4025 will act as a stop for the price increase and act as a correction to find more buying momentum towards 4100. The BUY zone around 4025 is still good, buying power is still accumulating around here. If the trendline around 4025 is broken, Gold will fall deeply to 3865. Trading signals BUY GOLD 3925-3923 SL 3920 SELL GOLD 4025-4027 SL 4030 SELL GOLD 4095-4097 SL 4100
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure OANDA:XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) continues to face resistance below the $3,995–$3,993 Resistance Zone, with repeated rejections suggesting weakening bullish momentum. Price action has formed lower highs near $3,990, signalling potential exhaustion. The Support Zone sits around $3,929–$3,938, which previously acted as a springboard for short-term rebounds. The current structure favours a bearish correction, particularly if price fails to reclaim $3,995 on a sustained basis. A clean break below $3,950 would confirm bearish continuation toward the $3,930 area. 🎯 Trade Setup Idea: Sell near resistance, target a drop toward support. Entry: $3,985 – $3,993 (Resistance Zone retest) Stop Loss: $3,996 Take Profit 1: $3,950 Take Profit 2: $3,930 Risk–Reward Ratio: ≈ 1 : 5.2 A break above $3,996 would invalidate the short setup and could open the door to retest $4,030. 🌐 Macro Background Gold prices slipped to around $3,970 in Thursday’s Asian session, weighed down by stronger-than-expected US private payroll data and a resilient US Dollar. As FXStreet’s Lallalit Srijandorn noted, “Gold edges lower below $4,000 as private payrolls rebound in October.” 【FXStreet】 ADP Employment Data: US companies added 42,000 jobs in October, rebounding from the previous month’s contraction, suggesting stabilization in the labor market. This data supports the Fed’s cautious tone and trims expectations for near-term rate cuts. Fed Commentary: Several Fed officials, including Michael Barr, John Williams, and Christopher Waller, are scheduled to speak later today. Any hawkish remarks reinforcing the “higher for longer” narrative could further strengthen the USD and pressure gold. Government Shutdown: The US government shutdown, now at 37 days, marks the longest in history. Political gridlock could lend some safe-haven support to gold, but so far, the impact has been muted compared to stronger USD dynamics. In short, with the US labour market improving and Fed officials maintaining caution, gold’s upside remains limited, while macro bias supports near-term weakness. 🔑 Key Technical Levels Resistance: $3,985 – $3,996 Support: $3,929 – $3,938 Psychological Level: $4,000 📌 Trade Summary Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure below $4,000 as bullish momentum fades. The setup favours a short position from the $3,985–$3,993 zone, targeting a decline toward $3,930. A sustained break above $3,996 would invalidate this bias and shift focus to $4,030 resistance. ⚠️ Disclaimer This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ATFX_Global
Gold's Potential Turtle Soup: Riding the CRT Wave?🐢 Gold's Potential Turtle Soup: Riding the CRT Wave? The chart for XAU/USD (Gold) is showing an intriguing setup on the 15-minute timeframe that combines several high-probability concepts. 🌊 The CRT Foundation Consolidation (C): Price recently saw a strong move up into the CRTH (Consolidation Resistance/High) at approximately $3,983 - $3,987. This area represents a clear high of recent structure. Retracement (R): We've seen a sharp retracement/sell-off after testing the high, creating a noticeable FVG (Fair Value Gap). Trend (T): The overall context suggests an underlying bullish trend, meaning this retracement could be fuel for the next leg up. 🥣 The Turtle Soup Setup The sharp drop has set the stage for a classic Turtle Soup scenario. This pattern typically occurs when a high or low is clearly broken, inducing retail traders to jump onto the perceived breakout, only for the price to quickly reverse. The recent low at $3,958.19 (CRTL - Consolidation Low) is our target. If price drops to break this low, it will likely trap early shorts. The "Potential KGD forming" (Kill Zone Draw) is strategically positioned to indicate where Smart Money might be looking to step in. 🎯 My Trade Thesis I'm watching for a fake-out: Slight break below the CRTL ($3,958.19) to trigger stop losses and attract shorts (Turtle Soup Entry). A sharp reversal back above the CRTL, preferably reacting off a deeper liquidity zone. Target: A move back up to fill the FVG and re-test the CRTH for a potential final push toward $4,000+. Invalidation: A strong, decisive close well below the CRTL, indicating a genuine structural break. Greetings, MrYounity
VANTAGE:XAUUSDShort
by MrYounity
Gold – Technical Outlook🔴 Bearish Scenario (Downtrend) Pivot Level: 4000 If price trades below 4000, continuation to the downside is expected. 🎯 First target: 3930 (support zone) If 3930 breaks → full bearish extension towards: 🎯 Next targets: 3895 – 3865 🟢 Bullish Scenario (Uptrend) If price breaks and holds above 4000, upside momentum will strengthen. 🎯 First target: 4030 (resistance zone) If 4030 breaks and holds on the 1H or 4H timeframe → strong bullish continuation towards: 🎯 Next targets: 4081 – 4133
OANDA:XAUUSD
by EvarMayi
Downward Pressure on Gold ContinuesThe downward pressure is very apperant in gold. Yesterday, I expected a move toward 4060 to short but it never came. There are some liquidity problems in the money and bond market and this is causing a selloff in many things while dollar is rising slowly. This will likely to continue until the end of shutdown. For detail, you can check the tweets of @SantManukyan , one of my favorite economist but you will need to use AI for translation. Anyway, I plan to go short from 3997-4010 zone with targets 3923 and 3870 and stop if the yellow trendline and yesterday's top breached.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by orancapital