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XAU Daily–Gold at Critical Rejection Zone|Breakout or Reversal?Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading near the critical All-Time High (ATH) resistance zone between **$3,656–$3,674**, where it has faced multiple rejections in the past. On the **1D timeframe**, price action is showing signs of hesitation near this level. If a **bullish breakout** occurs above the marked rejection zone — confirmed by a daily candle close with volume — gold could continue its upward trajectory and potentially form new highs. However, if the resistance holds and no breakout is confirmed, a **bearish reversal** may follow. Key **support levels** are marked just below the current price. A breakdown below these support zones may lead price down toward the **targets at $3,621 and $3,603**. This chart also outlines a possible **parabolic rounding top pattern**, signaling caution. 🔑 **Trading Tip:** Wait for breakout or breakdown confirmation before entering trades. Manage risk properly and always follow your trading plan.
FX:XAUUSD
by SmartEdgeTrading
Gold on the eve of interest rate cut: opportunity or trap?Gold Technical Analysis: Further analyzing gold's trend from a technical perspective, since its decline from the 3675 high, the daily chart has failed to show a clear unilateral direction. Instead, it has exhibited a pattern of alternating negative and positive fluctuations with narrowing amplitudes. Furthermore, the K-line chart continues to trade above the unilateral moving average. This pattern clearly points to a period of consolidation within a bullish trend, rather than a trend reversal. This week's daily chart should focus on two key support levels: the 3600 area represents a short-term watershed between strength and weakness. If broken, the market could shift from strong fluctuations to weak corrections. The 3500 area represents a medium-term bull-bear reversal line. A breach of this level could trigger a fundamental trend reversal. Therefore, 3600 should be the primary defensive line. The 4-hour chart shows more volatile gold: the Bollinger Bands continue to narrow, and the moving averages are highly converging. This indicates a complete lack of momentum needed for a unilateral rise or fall. For the time being, the 3615-3660 range is the preferred range. Based on cyclical patterns, the probability of a breakout of the Bollinger Bands on Monday and Tuesday is extremely low before the bands open. Therefore, high-certainty trading can be conducted on these two trading days around 3615 (lower support) - 3660 (upper resistance), without excessive expectations for a breakout outside the range. Based on real-time trends, gold has completed a short-term correction since the opening. Based on the logic of oscillation, long positions can be established within the day based on support near the lower edge of the range: enter near 3625-3620 (aligned with the lower edge of the 4-hour range), targeting upward fluctuations. Focus on the 3650-3660 area (where the upper edge of the 4-hour range overlaps with key resistance on the daily chart). If the price rebounds to the 3660-3655 range and finds resistance, a small position can be used to test short positions, targeting a pullback to the 3635-3630 area, forming a closed-loop buy-low-sell-high strategy within the range. Note that after the adjustment, the current price is in the middle of the range. Direct entry is not recommended for now. Wait until the price approaches the -3625-3620 support level or the 3655-3660 resistance level before placing orders based on K-line stabilization/pressure signals to improve trading accuracy. Overall, the recommended short-term trading strategy for gold today is to primarily buy on dips, supplemented by higher rebounds. Focus on the 3655-3665 resistance level on the upside, and the 3625-3615 support level on the downside.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GoldenTrack_Daniel
Notice! Notice! Long positions have taken profits. Please visit. Gold retreated slightly during the day and continued to fluctuate within a narrow range. Long positions near 3630 have already taken profits, and traders who followed suit have already profited. The current market is volatile, pressured by 3650. Once it stabilizes above 3650, the market will continue its strong upward trend. It is important to note that the daily chart's pullbacks during this period of continuous fluctuations are not significant. Watch for a possible secondary upward trend after a sideways correction at a high level. On the 4-hour chart, the short-term moving averages continue to converge and flatten, and the K-line charts have left long upper shadows, indicating a slightly stronger short-term trend. Keep an eye on the short-term correction. Trading Recommendation: Prior to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, focus on short-term trading. Both long and short positions should be taken when gains are seen. Buy on subsequent pullbacks to around 3634-5. Real-time intraday market guidance. As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
TVC:GOLD
by justin33xx
Gold Trading Strategy for Monday✅ Fundamental Analysis 🔹 Fed Rate Cut Expectations The Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, which is the market consensus. The recent rally in gold has been primarily driven by “rate cut expectations” rather than purely safe-haven demand. As the rate decision approaches, market volatility is expected to increase. 🔹 Geopolitical Risk Support Ongoing global geopolitical risks continue to provide additional safe-haven support, keeping gold prices within a strong range. 🔹 “Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact” Logic Before the rate decision: Market sentiment dominates, with gold maintaining a high-level bullish consolidation. After the rate decision: If the rate cut is delivered and Powell does not sound excessively dovish, a short-term pullback could occur on “sell the fact” behavior. ✅ Technical Analysis 🔸 From a structural perspective, gold broke out of a four-month consolidation range and formed a strong unilateral uptrend, reaching as high as $3674. Based on the principle of “the longer the base, the higher the move,” the trend remains strong, with no clear topping signal yet. However, the rapid rise has caused short-term overextension, suggesting a need for technical correction. 🔸 On the 4-hour chart, the current candles are trading near the Bollinger Band midline (around $3640), showing balanced forces between bulls and bears. The narrowing Bollinger Bands indicate a consolidation phase. A strong breakout above the upper band ($3660) could lead to a retest of $3675–3680. The MA5, MA10, and MA20 are converging, showing that the market is waiting for a directional breakout. As long as prices hold above MA20 ($3640–3620), the bullish structure remains intact. 🔴 Resistance Levels: 3657–3660 / 3675–3680 🟢 Support Levels: 3625–3630 / 3605–3610 ✅ Trading Strategy Reference: 🔰 Short-Term Idea: Focus on buying on dips near the 3625–3630 support zone. Light short positions may be considered if the price stalls near 3657–3660. 🔰 Medium-Term Idea: If gold breaks and holds above 3675–3680, the rally could extend toward 3700 or even new highs. If it falls below 3620–3610, a deeper correction may unfold, targeting 3595–3580. 🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions. If you have any questions , feel free to contact me🤝
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldTradingPros
Gold Dips Pre-CPI: Fed Cut Hype Fuels Buying Opportunities!Hello traders! Gold (XAU/USD) is slightly down today (11/09/2025) after yesterday’s weak PPI report—US wholesale inflation fell more than expected, boosting bets for a Fed rate cut next week to 100% for 0.25%, with growing odds for 0.5% (CME FedWatch). Tonight’s CPI and Jobless Claims at 19:30 ET will clarify inflation and labor trends, shaping the Fed’s exact cut. Gold won’t drop sharply unless hit by a shock like Trump tariffs—dips are buying opportunities! Let’s analyze today’s market and find trade setups! 💰 Fundamental Analysis: Gold Shines Bright 🌟 The weak PPI fuels rate cut expectations, easing pressure on USD and Treasuries, making non-yielding gold more attractive. With a 38% YTD surge (after 27% in 2024), gold is supported by a weak USD, China’s 10-month buying streak, and global uncertainty. CPI (11/09) will guide Fed policy—low inflation could push gold to new highs; high readings may trigger short-term dips. Keep RR tight! Technical Analysis: Consolidation Pre-CPI – Favor Buying 📉 Gold rose in Asia but hit resistance at 364x OB, dropping to 362x with liquidity sweeps—set SLs carefully! The 362x zone is key; a break below could target 361x or 3600. The bullish trend remains strong—prioritize buying dips unless major resistance fails. Resistance: 3640 - 3648 - 3659 - 3674 Support: 3621 - 3615 - 3607 - 3600 Trade Setups: Sell Scalp: 3640 - 3642 (SL: 3646; TP: 3637 - 3632 - 3627) Sell Zone: 3648 - 3650 (SL: 3658; TP: 3640 - 3630 - 3620) Buy Scalp: 3617 - 3615 (SL: 3611; TP: 3620 - 3625 - 3630) Buy Zone: 3601 - 3599 (SL: 3591; TP: 3611 - 3621 - 3631) Gold is consolidating pre-CPI—watch for liquidity traps! Above 362x, bulls aim for new highs; below, test lower supports. Manage risk tightly before CPI volatility! Will you buy dips or sell highs? Share your strategies below! 👇 #Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #CPI #TradingView #MarketUpdate #Forex #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #Finance #USInflation
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Jeremy_NPC
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for September 12Gold Technical Analysis Daily Chart Resistance: 3670, Support: 3540 4-Hour Chart Resistance: 3657, Support: 3615 1-Hour Chart Resistance: 3650, Support: 3630 Yesterday, gold bottomed out and rebounded, but did not fall to the 3600 level. Although it still closed lower, it rebounded significantly. This indicates that the downward momentum of gold prices has been absorbed. The market has returned to a volatile pattern. From the 1-hour chart, gold has once again risen above the 60-day moving average and has broken through the downward trend line today. I personally believe that there is still a chance that gold will continue to break new highs. Even if it does not break new highs today, the intraday decline and correction will likely be very limited. Therefore, in terms of trading, we can initially follow the principle of central oscillation. The upper resistance is between 3657 and 3667, and the lower support is between 3630 and 3615. Sell high and buy low in this range.
TVC:GOLD
by ActuaryJ
Gold prices are expected to enter a period of volatilityGold prices are expected to enter a period of volatility; buy on dips. Today's Consumer Price Index report paints a complex picture, with both "sticky inflation" and a cooling economy. Inflationary pressures remain, and signs of an economic slowdown are intensifying. Overall, inflation was in line with expectations: while slightly higher month-over-month, both the year-over-year and core CPI figures were fully in line with market expectations and avoided an uncontrolled upward trend, giving the Federal Reserve some breathing room. Gold prices are likely to remain volatile ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The market has largely priced in a September rate cut, and gold has seen significant gains in the past. A new catalyst or clearer signal is needed for a breakout. The Fed's impending rate-cutting cycle provides the strongest support for gold. Technical Analysis: Today, gold prices are focusing on key support around 3600-3610. The trading strategy is primarily based on a volatile market. SELL:3635-3640 SL:3648 TP:3625-3620 BUY:3615-3620 SL:3608 TP:3640-3650
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Katyusha202509
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 12/09/2025 1. Momentum • D1: Momentum is approaching the oversold zone. We should wait for a bullish reversal signal here to confirm a new upward move. • H4: Momentum is currently in the overbought zone and preparing to reverse. This suggests price may continue sideways or move into a corrective decline. • H1: Momentum is also in the overbought zone and about to reverse → the current upward move is weakening, and a short-term corrective pullback is likely. 2. Wave Structure • D1: The market is forming a 5-wave black structure. The current D1 momentum decline is nearly complete and may reach the oversold zone within 1–2 days, signaling that wave iv (black) is close to completion. • H4: Price is moving sideways. Since H4 momentum is preparing to turn down from overbought, wave iv (black) may still be in progress. We need to wait until H4 momentum moves into the oversold zone and reverses up to better evaluate the completion of wave iv. • H1: Price has been consolidating within a high liquidity zone (Volume Profile). The sideways and time-consuming behavior fits the nature of wave iv. o A reliable confirmation of wave iv completion would be a breakout and daily close above 3657. o If price fails to break this level and declines further, wave iv may develop into a triangle or complex corrective pattern. o With both H1 and H4 momentum preparing to turn down, the scenario of wave iv continuing is more likely for now. 3. Trading Plan • Scenario 1: If price breaks and closes above 3657, wait for a retest of this level to look for a Buy Breakout targeting wave v. • Buy Zone 1: o Entry: 3596 – 3594 o SL: 3585 o TP: 3669 • Buy Zone 2: o Entry: 3557 – 3555 o SL: 3547 o TP: 3597
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WavePoint_FX
Gold Bullish Momentum: Layering Longs For Maximum Gain!🏆 XAU/USD | The Gold Robbery Heist Plan (Swing/Day Trade) 🎯 Plan Setup (Bullish) Entry (Layering Style): Using the Thief Layer Strategy 🕵️‍♂️ → Multiple Buy Limit layers $3625 $3630 $3635 $3640 (Add more layers based on your own strategy & risk appetite) Stop Loss (Thief SL): @3610 (Adjust based on your own strategy & risk ⚠️) Take Profit (Escape Point): Target resistance zone @3690 🚪💰 ⚡ Note: This is a flexible thief-style plan — adjust SL/TP levels as per your personal money management and execution style. 📊 Why This Plan? (Thief’s Market Analysis) 🔎 Real-Time Market Data (10 Sept 2025) Price: $3,643.71 24h Change: +0.48% Range: $3,620.90 – $3,644.56 🧠 Retail Sentiment (Contrarian Signal) Long: 37% Short: 63% ➡️ Retail crowd is heavily short → Contrarian bullish setup. 🏦 Institutional Sentiment (Commitment of Traders) Net Long: +249,530 contracts Long: 315,796 Short: 66,266 ➡️ Institutions are firmly positioned long ✅ 🌡️ Fear & Greed + Volatility Neutral (shifting from Greed) VIX <14 (52-week low) → Calm market backdrop 📉 Macro & Fundamentals US jobs data: Weak (22K vs. 75K expected) Fed rate cut probability: 99.4% (September meeting) Central bank gold demand + geopolitical tensions supportive Upcoming CPI/PPI = key catalyst 📐 Technical View Price holding above $3,625 support Ascending channel continuation Overbought zone = caution for short pullbacks 🗝️ Key Takeaways (Thief OG Notes) USD weakness + Fed dovish tilt = Gold tailwind Retail shorts = bullish contrarian setup Institutions backing the move higher Short-term overbought → manage exits smartly 🔥 Related Markets to Watch OANDA:XAGUSD (Silver) TVC:DXY (US Dollar Index) SP:SPX (S&P 500) TVC:US10Y (US 10Y Treasury Yield) BITSTAMP:BTCUSD (Bitcoin correlation check) ✨ “If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!” #XAUUSD #Gold #Forex #SwingTrade #DayTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Fundamentals #ThiefStrategy #TradingPlan #GoldBulls #MacroAnalysis #MarketSentiment
FX:XAUUSDLong
by The-Thief
Are gold bulls or bears more dominant? Gold is currently still volatile, and short-term pullbacks do not affect its overall bullish trend. With the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate decision, will it fuel a surge in gold bulls, or will it usher in a turnaround for gold bears? Technically, gold's 1-hour moving average continues to form a golden cross and bullish formation, demonstrating bullish momentum. The overall trend remains volatile upward, with support between 3675 and 3680. Gold's dip only stopped at 3678 before rebounding strongly. Ahead of the Fed's interest rate decision, gold is likely to continue its volatile upward trend. Based on current US economic and inflation data and market expectations, there are only two possible scenarios for the Fed's interest rate decision: a 25 basis point or a 50 basis point cut. If the Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points, below market expectations, the gold market could initially rise before falling, with the turning point likely around 3710. If the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points, in line with market expectations, bullish sentiment will intensify, and buying will continue to push gold prices higher, potentially to around 3735. Today, we accurately grasped the rhythm of gold's fluctuations. In our previous trading strategy, we clearly pointed out the possibility of gold retracing to the 3680 area. Our latest trading plan is to continue long gold positions around this area, aiming for an eventual rise to 3700. This is an excellent short-term long trade! Trading Recommendation: For short-term trading, I believe it's advisable to buy long positions around 3675, with a short-term rebound target of 3690.
TVC:GOLD
by justin33xx
Intraday short position is dominant, beware of big drop#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD As I analyzed with you over the weekend, although gold prices largely fluctuated at high levels last week, the overall structure remained within an upward trend. Yesterday's daily line closed with a big positive line, breaking the box-shaped oscillation in one fell swoop. This morning, gold continued its bullish trend, reaching a high of around 3689. Judging from the market trends, the overall short-term bullish trend remains unchanged, but this does not mean the end of the short position. First, the risk of chasing high prices is far greater than shorting, and the technical analysis suggests a potential correction. As the price of gold rises, the previous resistance gradually turns into short-term support. If gold wants to continue to rise, it must at least fall back to 3665-3655. Secondly, regarding the news, first, although the fourth China-US talks have not yet released any signals about tariffs, the news released by China is conducive to positive developments. Second, the court dismissed Trump's charges against Cook. Although the White House has stated that it will continue to do so, this move has effectively reduced market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. From the news perspective, it is conducive to the decline of gold. Therefore, I remain optimistic about a short-term pullback in gold prices. Those without existing orders can consider continuing to short gold in batches above 3680, with a short-term target of 3665-3655. It can not only effectively raise the average price, but also occupy an advantageous position when gold experiences a sharp correction. However, it should be noted that in short trading, the number of trading lots must be strictly controlled to reduce trading risks and not let the account collapse on the eve of profit.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by TP-Halson
HIT +100 PIPS FROM ANALYSIS XAUUSD | SEP.16 The market bias remains bullish. Best setup is to buy from the 3670–3675 FVG. Short setups around 3700 are only valid with strong rejection signals. ⚡️Buy Analysis at the 3685- 3688 Based on SMC) ⚡️ 🔣Market Structure The overall trend remains bullish, with multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) to the upside. After breaking through the previous resistance at 3680, price extended higher. Currently showing a minor retracement to retest the newly formed demand zone. 🔣Key Zone This zone aligns with a Demand + Fair Value Gap (FVG) created after the latest BOS. It coincides with short-term support, where Smart Money is likely to accumulate liquidity. Since price already broke above 3690, a pullback into 3685 – 3688 offers a clean continuation entry. #profit #xauusd #bullish #buytrend
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by michael_gold
Smart Money Concept (SMC)📊 SMC Analysis – Bullish Projection to 3,700 ✅ Context After reaching the new Higher High (HH) at 3,675, the market is now consolidating in a distribution phase. Price action shows signs of liquidity grabs before the next move. ✅ Key Insights • A ChoCh and BOS appeared, but price is holding above the support zone. • A potential fake out could occur, grabbing liquidity before continuation. • We are watching for a retest + rejection as confirmation of bullish continuation. ✅ Entry Idea The entry is anticipated on the retest after the fake out, once a rejection confirms institutional interest. ✅ Target If the setup plays out, price is likely to push towards the 3,700 level, an area with strong seller interest and liquidity resting above. 🔑 Lesson for Traders Patience is key: 1. Let the fake out clear liquidity. 2. Wait for the retest. 3. Enter only on clear rejection signals. 4. Ride the move to the new HH at 3,700. 👉 This gives you a clean educational breakdown for your followers while showing how to anticipate the next move. GOOD LUCK TRADERS.. ;)
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fonseca87