GOLDCFD trade ideas
Gold analysis on the night of September 11Gold Analysis
The CPI rose by 2.9% year-on-year, exceeding expectations and reaching a seven-month high. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims surged to 263,000, highlighting labor market weakness. These signals heightened expectations for rate cuts, while gold prices remained stable above the 3,600-point platform.
Gold prices failed to break new lows after two attempts to bottom out today, prompting renewed bullish activity. This suggests that while gold is no longer experiencing extreme short-term strength, support remains strong on pullbacks, indicating continued bullish momentum.
Gold Technical Analysis
Although the 1-hour moving average has begun to flatten, it will continue to curve upward as gold rises, maintaining significant bullish opportunities. The 1-hour gold chart is still oscillating, but gold is currently in a bullish trend, so the current volatility is merely a continuation of the upward trend. If gold holds above the 3,620 level, there will continue to be opportunities for buying on dips. Gold Strategy
Open long positions at 3630 and 3638, with stop-loss at 3620 and targets at 3670 and 3680.
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 9/12/2025Gold indeed dropped to 3620 yesterday and bounced from there. Interestingly, it has formed a triangle pattern. This is a bearish sign. Therefore, I would engage selling orders today at current market price. my 1st target is 3600. And if 3600 is broken, the next target will be 3550.
ifvg+fvg 11 September 2025Trading plan:-
1-sweeping the swing point of previous day then change its direction
2-MSS on 15 m TF
3-utilize the ifvg-15m and fvg 5 m in the direction of bias and market structure
4-my target is the swing point high
Thank you
Action To Gold 11 Sep 20251. Market Structure (Elliott Wave)
The chart shows Elliott Wave labeling:
Wave (i), (ii), (iii), currently in corrective wave (iv).
Next expectation: continuation down into wave (v).
2. Key Fibonacci Levels
Wave (iv) retracement already tested the 0.618 – 0.786 Fibo retrace zone (3625 – 3620).
Potential wave (v) downside targets:
1.272 Fibo extension → 3606
1.414 Fibo extension → 3601
1.618 Fibo extension → 3595
3. Trade Confirmation
Current price: 3631. Already showing rejection around wave (iv).
Confirmation needed: Bearish candle close below 3625 (0.618 Fibo) → signals start of wave (v).
👉 Possible trade setup:
Sell Entry: 3628–3635 (retracement zone of wave iv).
Stop Loss: Above swing high wave (iv) = ~3643.
Take Profit targets:
TP1 = 3614 (Fibo 1.0)
TP2 = 3606 (Fibo 1.272)
TP3 = 3595 (Fibo 1.618)
4. Alternative Scenario (Invalidation)
If price breaks & closes above 3643, wave (iv) is invalidated.
Market could aim higher retracement levels (3657 – 3674).
📌 Trading Plan Summary
Status: Wait for bearish confirmation candle close below 3625.
If confirmed → Open Sell with SL 3643, TP range 3614 → 3595.
If price breaks 3643 → cancel sell setup, reassess structure.
GOLD Buyers gave up at the asian session from 3652-3648 supply roof from my 3min structure and from the 30min structure shared.
the demand floor next will be 3600-3588 zone for the next buy idea.
#gold #xauusd
when human error causes institutional chaos WHEN THE HOUSE OF CARDS FELL
a concise look at history’s largest trading disasters.
Intro
Markets make fortunes, and erase them. Some of the largest drawdowns in modern financial history weren’t caused by market moves alone, but by human error, hubris, weak controls, or leverage run amok. Below are the most instructive episodes.
1) Nick Leeson — Barings Bank (1995)
What was traded: Futures and options on the Nikkei 225 and other Asian equity derivatives (hidden in an error account).
Losses: ~£827 million (the final number widely reported; Barings collapsed and was bought by ING).
Why it happened: Unauthorized speculative bets, concealed losses in a hidden account, and complete breakdown of segregation between front and back office responsibilities.
Lesson for traders: Always enforce separation of duties, log and reconcile trades daily, and respect position-size limits. Small hidden losses compound quickly when someone doubles down to "recover."
2) Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) (1998)
What was traded: Highly leveraged fixed-income arbitrage and complex derivatives (relative-value trades across bonds and swaps).
Losses: About $4.6 billion in a few months and a near-collapse that required a $3.65 billion private-sector bailout organized under the Federal Reserve’s supervision.
Why it happened: Massive leverage, concentrated positions, reliance on models that assumed low tail risk, and liquidity drying up after the 1997–98 crises.
Lesson for traders: Models are only as good as their assumptions. Always stress-test for extreme events and never confuse historical volatility for guaranteed stability.
3) Amaranth Advisors — Brian Hunter (2006)
What was traded: Natural gas futures and swaps (directional bets on gas prices).
Losses: Around $6.6 billion (almost the entire fund).
Why it happened: A massive one-way bet in a single commodity market, extreme exposure during a short time window, and insufficient risk checks on position concentrations.
Lesson for traders: Diversify exposure, cap concentration per market, and use stop rules — particularly with volatile commodities.
4) Société Générale — Jérôme Kerviel (2008)
What was traded: Large, unauthorized equity index and delta-hedging derivatives positions.
Losses: €4.9 billion reported by the bank.
Why it happened: A junior trader built enormous notional exposure hidden behind falsified trades and offsets; internal controls failed to detect the pattern early.
Lesson for traders: Strong surveillance, automated alerts for notional buildup and mismatches between booking and market flows are mandatory. No trader should have the ability to both create and hide offsets.
5) JPMorgan Chase — "The London Whale" (2012)
What was traded: Complex credit derivatives (CDS indices and related structured trades) booked by the Chief Investment Office.
Losses: Approximately $6 billion (publicly reported as the headline figure).
Why it happened: Large, illiquid positions taken under the guise of hedging; risk management misclassification and insufficient oversight of the desk’s activity.
Lesson for traders: Question “official” hedges and track mark-to-market transparency. Size matters — large positions in illiquid markets behave unpredictably.
6) UBS — Kweku Adoboli (2011)
What was traded: Equity derivatives and ETFs; fraudulent booking to hide true exposures.
Losses: About $2.3 billion for UBS.
Why it happened: Unauthorized trading far beyond limits, with fictitious trades used to mask losses.
Lesson for traders: Controls matter: independent confirmations, reconciliation of booked trades with exchange/clearing records, and strong escalation procedures.
7) Sumitomo Corporation — Yasuo Hamanaka (1990s)
What was traded: Copper futures and long-running attempts to corner the copper market.
Losses/impact: Reported losses and claims ran into the billions (estimates vary), with major disruption to the LME and legal fallout.
Why it happened: Single-commodity domination attempts, manipulation, and weak counterparty surveillance.
Lesson for traders: Markets punish attempts to dominate a price. Avoid attempting to influence markets and respect regulatory/ethical boundaries.
8) Archegos Capital Management (2021)
What was traded: Highly leveraged equity positions via total return swaps and prime broker financing.
Losses: Bank losses linked to Archegos exceeded $10 billion across multiple counterparties.
Why it happened: Extreme use of leverage through opaque swap structures, concentrated bets, and inadequate margining/aggregation across prime brokers.
Lesson for traders: Leverage can be hidden — counterparties and traders must track true economic exposure. Concentration plus leverage is the most dangerous combination.
Common themes across disasters
Leverage + Concentration = Catastrophe. Almost every case involved outsized positions funded with borrowed money.
Control failures matter more than market moves. Rogue behavior and poor internal controls are repeated patterns.
Liquidity risk is underestimated. Markets that look liquid in calm times can evaporate in stress.
Model humility. Models help, but they don’t replace common sense or scenario thinking.
Actionable rules for retail traders (quick checklist)
Limit leverage and set absolute position-size caps.
Use stop losses and pre-defined exit rules.
Reconcile trades daily with your broker statements.
Stress-test your portfolio for extreme but plausible moves.
Keep a trading log and review losing trades objectively.
outro: memory from history
Big losses make for great cautionary tales. Whether you trade FX, futures, or equities, the mechanics are the same: manage size, diversify, and build systems that work for you.
put together by : Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd
Gold | Waiting for CPI & FED rate cut | Priority Buy at support🟡 XAU/USD – 11/09 | Captain Vincent ⚓
🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
US PPI yesterday : Wholesale prices dropped sharply, below forecasts → strengthening expectations of a FED rate cut.
FED probabilities : 100% odds for a -25bps cut next week, and even 16% of investors bet on -50bps.
Today : US CPI & Jobless Claims – key data to assess inflation & labor, determining the specific cut.
⏩ Captain’s Summary : FED will certainly cut rates, so Gold remains supported in its bullish trend. Short-term fluctuations may occur due to sentiment or surprises (e.g., tariff news from Trump).
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance) :
Bearish OB: 3645 – 3650 (near-term resistance)
Weak High: 3674 (target if breakout succeeds)
Golden Harbor (Support) :
Near support: 3622
FVG Dock: 3603
Bullish OB: 3581 – 3585 (strong mid-term support)
Market Structure :
H1 shows a short-term bearish BoS, retesting support.
Main trend remains bullish → possible pullback to 3622 or 3603 before rallying toward 3670+.
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Plan
✅ Buy (priority with trend)
Entry 1: 3621 – 3623 (Scalping)
SL: 3619
TP: 3625 – 3630 – 3635 – 3640 – 36XX
Entry 2 (FVG): 3603 – 3605
SL: 3592
TP: 3610 – 3615 – 3625 – 365x
Entry 3 (Bullish OB): 3581 – 3585
SL: 3572
TP: 3600 – 3620 – 3640
⚡ Sell (only short scalp at resistance)
Sell Zone: 3645 – 3650
SL: 3658
TP: 3635 – 3628 – 3622
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The Golden sails remain full of wind as the FED is almost certain to cut rates. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3622 – 3603) and the deeper OB 3581 – 3585 are safe havens to follow the bullish tide. If the ship touches Storm Breaker 🌊 (3645 – 3650) , only Quick Boarding 🚤 short scalps are recommended. The larger voyage still heads north, steering Gold toward new highs at 367x.”
9/11: Double Top Pattern, Bearish OutlookGood afternoon, everyone!
Yesterday, the market showed limited volatility, with prices capped around 3343–3358, failing to break through, which delayed the expected downward cycle.
Today, the trend looks clearer:
A double-top pattern has formed;
Price tested the 23 support for the first time and rebounded slightly;
Key resistance levels are 32–37, followed by 41;
If the rebound fails to break resistance, the 23 support is very likely to be broken;
Main supports to watch are 3610 (2H chart) and 3578–3550 (4H chart).
🔹 Trading Strategy
Focus on short positions;
Try quick long trades near support, but avoid being greedy;
If rebounds fail at resistance, shorts may accelerate, so risk is relatively high.
CPI GOLD MAPPING ! CPI GOLD BUY AND SELL AREAS
SELL 3644 , 3667 (OB)
BUY 3571 , 3555 (FVG + OB)
BUY 3517 , 3497 (TS + RBS)
Good Luck With Your Trading 🤞
10 September 2025 /hidden BB and the site of the SL Trading Plan :
1-the most important thing is Hidden BB
2-the SL positioned before 2 fvg
Thank you
Pullback for accumulation; bullish momentum remains promising.Gold broke upward against the resistance of the trendline, rising to a high of around 3,658. As indicated in the morning analysis, we have advised everyone to take partial profits first on positions entered below the 3,600 level to lock in gains. From the 1-hour candlestick chart, gold has consistently maintained a "gradual upward movement amid consolidation" rhythm, with lower lows continuing to move higher, and the stability of the trend structure is remarkable.
During a one-sided upward trend, the market's response to data is biased: bullish news will be amplified, while bearish news will be overlooked. One should not rely excessively on data for trading; more seasoned traders understand the logic behind the data and the current market environment.
For subsequent moves, when the price retraces to the hourly support level, those who have already taken profits can continue to follow up with long positions. We will closely track and analyze the market daily. If you lose your direction in such a market, you are welcome to follow us and leave a message for communication to obtain more targeted analysis and trading advice.
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold tested the $3,674 resistance yesterday before pulling back to the $3,620 area, where the 50MA provided dynamic support. Price is now trending around $3,646, attempting to recover from the pullback.
For bulls to regain control, we need a clean break above $3,658, which would open the path toward $3,674, followed by $3,690, and an extension to $3,706.
However, a rejection at $3,658 resistance could trigger a deeper pullback into lower support levels.
📌Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
$3,658
$3,674
$3,690
$3,706
Support:
$3,644
$3,630
$3,617
$3,594
$3,564
📌 Fundamental Focus – Sept 10
The fireworks start today with U.S. inflation data. Core PPI and PPI figures will be released this afternoon, kicking off a packed midweek that continues with CPI tomorrow and ends with Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations on Friday.
⚠️ Expect volatility to pick up from today onward, with sharp moves likely around each release.
GOLD M15 MAPPING / ZGMGold M15 Mapping Update Gold
If Gold Break The Resistance Then We Buy At 3650📈
If Gold Break The Support Then We Sell At 3603 📉
The Gold Have A Trendline With A Breakout We Will Sell At Reversal 3675 / 3687
Follow Us For More !
XAUUSD Intraday Analysis Resistance Rejection & Pullback ScenariGold (XAUUSD) – Intraday Analysis: Resistance Rejection and Pullback Scenario
Gold has been trading in a strong uptrend channel since late August, but today’s price action is showing the first signs of exhaustion. On the H1 timeframe, price reached a key resistance zone around 3,670 – 3,680 USD/oz and immediately rejected, breaking out of the rising channel. This signals a potential short-term pullback.
Key Technical Levels Resistance:
3,670 – 3,680 (major rejection zone).
If bulls manage to break above, the next upside target will be 3,720 – 3,750.
Support:
3,600 (psychological level + EMA20 H1).
3,540 – 3,550 (recent swing low + Fibonacci 0.382).
3,500 (major support with confluence at Fibonacci 0.5).
Trading Strategies Bearish Setup (preferred intraday scenario):
Look for short positions if price fails to reclaim 3,670 – 3,680.
Entry zone: 3,635 – 3,650.
Targets: 3,600 → 3,550 → 3,500.
Stop loss: above 3,685.
Bullish Setup (alternative scenario):
Consider longs only if price holds firmly above 3,600 and shows reversal signals.
Entry: 3,600 – 3,610.
Target: 3,660 – 3,670.
Stop loss: below 3,590.
Indicator Confirmation EMA20 vs EMA50 (H1): a bearish cross will strengthen the pullback outlook.
RSI (H1): already leaving overbought territory, supporting a correction.
Fibonacci retracement: 3,550 and 3,500 are crucial pullback levels to watch.
Conclusion: Gold is showing rejection at the 3,670 resistance area, with high probability of a pullback toward 3,600 – 3,550. Short setups remain favorable, but traders should stay flexible in case bulls defend 3,600 strongly.
- If you find this analysis useful, remember to follow for more updated strategies and save it for reference during today’s trading session.
Is gold at its peak?Gold has staged a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" move. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls data was bullish for gold, yet gold plummeted after the data release. There’s no need for confusion—it’s not as you might think, that bullish data means the price rises and bearish data means it falls. If it were that simple, everyone would be making money.
Data and fundamentals are reflected in prices, but such reflections can be ahead of time, lagging, exceeding expectations, or falling short of expectations. Judging which scenario it is depends solely on the historical database one has accumulated and long-term real-trading experience.
Today, I added to my gold positions twice and am still holding them. Even if the price falls further, my profits won’t decrease. This is because I believe today’s decline is most likely a result of some profit-taking traders closing their positions on the opportunity—after all, there have been no major bearish factors in the fundamentals yet. Whether a daily-level correction will occur still requires further observation. After all, since the rally started on August 20, there has been no real daily-level correction except for the sharp intraday pullback on September 4, and a correction would actually make the trend healthier.
The period from now to next week is a critical short-term window for gold. I will closely track and analyze the market every day. If you lose your direction in such a market, you can follow me or leave me a message.
Sinper entry on GOLD!While 0.25% rate putting pressure on dollar index, GOLD started pump since the beginning of the week which is a continuation of the longer term uptrending market strcutre.
As 4h closed with the dialy as narrow bullish doji, current session price just has broker out of the structure and potentially retesting the intraday support @3688.80 could bounce off the level expecting test again 3700 which previous daily high. Setting TP1 3692.27, TP2 3700.00
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for September 16Gold Technical Analysis
4-Hour Support: 3656
1-Hour Support: 3675
30-Minute Support: 3685
Technical Analysis: The gold market opened around 3642 on Monday, then retreated, reaching a daily low of $3625.9/oz. It then experienced a strong upward trend, reaching a new all-time high of 3685 during the US trading session, before entering a sideways trend. It hit a new high of 3698 on Tuesday.
The daily chart shows that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in extreme overbought territory near 80, indicating continued strong gold buying. From an upside perspective, 3700 is a short-term hurdle to overcome; a break above this level would open the door to the 3750/3800 area.
As for support, if spot gold prices fall further, the previous high of 3674 will provide some support. If this level is broken, gold prices could test support around 3656. During NY time, we'll focus on a possible downward correction after breaking through 3700. However, this doesn't necessarily mean we're bearish. Focus on support at 3675-3658. The short-term bull-bear dividing line is near 3675. My personal recommendation: Buy on dips!
Observe the reaction near support levels, and continue to be bullish after any downward correction. Potential buying areas:
BUY: 3687-3682
BUY: 3665-3660
GOLD IS UNSTOPPABLE|LONG|
✅GOLD broke the key
Wide structure level around 3670$
While trading in a strong uptrend
Which reinforces our bullish bias
And I think that after the retest
Of the broken level is complete
A rebound and bullish
Continuation will follow
LONG🚀
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gold setup 4h analysis Here’s the simplified view for XAU/USD (Gold) 4H chart you shared:
---
📈 Best Buy Setup
Entry: Above 3,675 – 3,680 (only if price breaks and closes above this resistance).
Stop Loss (SL): Below 3,650.
Take Profit (TP):
TP1 → 3,700
TP2 → 3,720 – 3,730
➡ Reason: Breakout continuation in the uptrend.
---
📉 Best Sell Setup
Entry: If price rejects 3,675 – 3,680 with bearish confirmation candle.
Stop Loss (SL): Above 3,695.
Take Profit (TP):
TP1 → 3,600 – 3,610
TP2 → 3,575 – 3,550 (trendline support).
➡ Reason: Failed breakout → pullback to trendline.
---
🔑 Best option now → Wait for confirmation.
If it breaks up, go long (buy).
If it rejects, go short (sell).
Gold Breaks Records: Is This the Start of a New Super Cycle?Hi traders! Gold (XAU/USD) broke out strong, gaining 1.1% on September 15, 2025, to close at $3,680.80/oz after hitting a historic peak of $3,685.39/oz. Last week, gold climbed 1.6%, supported by a weaker USD (down 0.3% to a one-week low) and falling US government bond yields. The market is almost certain the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25% on September 17, with some even anticipating a larger 0.5% move (according to the CME FedWatch Tool). Global tensions and potential gold import liberalization in China continue to fuel the rally. Let's analyze and find some trading setups! 💰
Fundamental Analysis: Gold Shines in Uncertainty 🌟
Fed Rate Cuts: US economic data from last week showed the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at its fastest pace in seven months, but recent jobs data pointed to a weakening labor market. This supports the Fed’s move towards a rate cut, a first since December 2024. A lower interest rate environment weakens the US Dollar and makes non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
Geopolitical Tensions: The upcoming Fed meeting is under unusual political pressure, with leadership disputes and President Donald Trump pushing for greater influence. The US Senate is also considering allowing his economic advisor, Stephen Miran, to join the rate-setting committee to vote on September 17. Gold typically acts as a safe haven during such instability.
China's Demand: Reports from last weekend suggest China may ease gold import/export rules and boost its purchasing activity. Strong official and private demand from a major consumer like China is a key driver for gold's upward momentum.
Technical Analysis: Breaking Records & Finding Opportunities 📉
Gold has decisively broken above the Fibo 2.618 level and established a new all-time high (ATH). Pullbacks have been shallow, typically moving only about $10 before the rally continues. This indicates strong buying pressure, making it difficult for sellers to gain ground. We should look to buy on dips and consider selling only at key resistance levels.
Resistance: $3704, $3714, $3724
Support: $3694, $3686, $3674, $3666
Trading Setups (Use Strict Risk Management):
Buy Scalp:
Zone: $3688 - $3686
SL: $3682
TP: $3691 - $3696 - $3701 - $3706
Buy Zone:
Zone: $3667 - $3665
SL: $3657
TP: $3675 - $3685 - $3695 - $3705 - $3715
Sell Scalp:
Zone: $3704 - $3706
SL: $3710
TP: $3701 - $3696 - $3691 - $3686
Sell Zone:
Zone: $3724 - $3726
SL: $3734
TP: $3716 - $3706 - $3696 - $3686 - $3676
Gold is at an all-time high—be cautious of liquidity traps around the upcoming Fed news! Above $3694, the next target is a new high; below, we could test $3666. Manage your risk tightly ahead of the September 17 volatility! Will you buy the dip or sell the top? Share your strategy below! 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #RateCuts #CPI #TradingView #MarketUpdate #Forex #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #Finance #Geopolitics #CentralBank
XAU/USD 16 September 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
As mentioned in analysis dated 04 September 2025, with respect to alternative scenario, price could potentially continue higher, is how price printed, price continued its upward trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price previously, and has now for the second time, printed a bearish CHoCH which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation, however, due to the insignificant nature of the pullback, particularly relative to previous price action, I will apply discretion and not classify previous iBOS, I also have marked this in red.
Price has continued with it's upward trajectory. We are now trading within an internal low and fractal high.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH, which is the first indication, but not confirmation, of bearish pullback phase initiation. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Price to then trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,697.405.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially print higher-highs.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has continued with its bullish trajectory printing all-time-highs.
Price is currently trading within and internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dotted line.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,697.405.
Alternative scenario: Price could potentially continue bullish.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
