GOLDCFD trade ideas
ACTION PLAN I SEP/18/2025(BUY or SELL) Right now the market is at a sensitive point and may reverse in both directions ⚡️.
👉 That means there’s nothing certain enough to rush into a trade yet.
✅ Action plan:
Stay on the sidelines to avoid getting trapped by noise.
Only trade at the value zones I’ve analyzed and marked out.
Patience and discipline remain the key to capital protection and profit growth.
XAUUSD | Bullish SetupPrice broke the last high, confirming bullish structure. I’m expecting a pullback into demand to continue higher.
📌 Entry Zone: I will enter at demand zone once I get a confirmation on my lower timeframe.
🎯 Targets: my target is bsl
🛑 SL: Just below the demand zone
As long as demand hold, I remain bullish and expect continuation to the upside.”
M30 Gold at Key Support: Break or BounceThis chart of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) on the 30-minute timeframe shows price reacting around a key support zone highlighted in purple. After a steady decline from the Fair Value Gap (FVG) area, price has tapped into the demand zone and is currently consolidating. From here, two potential scenarios stand out: if buyers defend this level, we could see a bullish reversal toward the 3,680–3,700 zone; however, if sellers break below the support, continuation to the downside toward 3,610–3,600 is likely. The current setup suggests watching closely for confirmation before entering either direction.
Next Day's Trend: Short Gold on RalliesNext Day's Trend: Short Gold on Rallies
The following is a reassessment of gold's technicals following the Fed's rate cut decision:
1: Spot gold experienced a sharp correction, breaking through key support levels such as 3680 and 3650.
2: The short-term technical structure was broken, shifting the market from bullish to bearish, entering a technical correction.
3: The 4-hour and daily charts are clearly bearish.
Gold prices broke through the short-term moving average system with a large black candlestick pattern, forming a bearish "dark cloud cover" pattern.
4: Bears are currently in full control of the short-term trend. Any rebound is likely to face renewed selling pressure, and a trend reversal will take time to recover.
5. Key Resistance: $3620-3627 (previous support, now initial resistance)
6. $3655-3665 (stronger resistance). Any rebound in gold prices will first be tested at these levels.
Failure to break through these levels suggests a potential downtrend.
Macro Support Levels:
1. $3,600 (Important Psychological Level)
2. $3,570-3,580 (Near the 50-Day Moving Average)
3. $3,550 (Deeper Retracement Level)
Summary: $3,600 is crucial. A break below this level would open a downtrend towards the $3,550-3,580 area.
Trading Strategy:
Primarily short on rallies, watching for a rebound to resistance around $3,680 or $3,670. Any resistance below this level could be a shorting opportunity. Avoid blindly buying on dips.
XAUUSD Intraday Analysis – September 18, 2025On the H1 chart, gold shows clear weakness after failing to sustain bullish momentum. The “Bulls Break Down” phase occurred with a strong rejection around 3,674 – 3,680 USD/oz, which has now turned into a key short-term resistance zone.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
Immediate Resistance: 3,674 – 3,680 USD/oz (Stop Loss zone for short positions).
Minor Resistance (now supply): 3,648 – 3,650 USD/oz.
Immediate Support: 3,643 USD/oz.
Deeper Support: 3,622 – 3,625 USD/oz.
Trading Strategies
Main short-term trend: Bearish.
Price has broken the previous bullish structure and is forming a downside wave with minor pullbacks toward resistance zones.
Scenario 1 – Sell on pullback (preferred):
Entry: 3,656 – 3,660 USD/oz upon retest.
Stop Loss: above 3,675 USD/oz.
Take Profit: 3,643 USD/oz (TP1), extended to 3,622 USD/oz (TP2).
Scenario 2 – Countertrend Buy (high risk, less favorable):
Only valid if price holds above 3,643 USD/oz with clear bullish reversal candles.
Take Profit: 3,660 – 3,670 USD/oz.
Stop Loss: below 3,638 USD/oz.
Technical Confluence
EMA: Price is trading below short-term EMAs, confirming bearish pressure.
RSI (H1): Trending lower, not yet oversold, leaving room for further downside.
Fibonacci Retracement: The 3,674 USD level aligns with the 61.8% retracement, strengthening the bearish rejection.
- In summary, gold is leaning bearish intraday, with a preference for short positions on pullbacks. A clean break below 3,643 USD/oz would open the door to 3,622 USD/oz.
Next Steps in Gold Day Trading: Shorting with the TrendNext Steps in Gold Day Trading: Shorting with the Trend
Spot gold experienced significant volatility during the Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's speech.
During Powell's speech, spot gold prices continued to decline, falling over 1% intraday to below $3,650/oz, nearly $60 below the intraday high.
While the market eagerly anticipated the expected 25 basis point rate cut, Powell's guidance on the path of future rate cuts clearly fell short of the dovishness expected by the market.
This "buy the expectation, sell the reality" strategy caused gold prices to initially rise, then rapidly fall.
Prior to the meeting, gold prices were significantly overbought and in need of a technical correction.
The Fed's news merely provided a catalyst for a pullback.
Technical Analysis:
Downside Support Levels:
Short-term Support Level: $3,645 (bullish flag breakout point)
Important Support Level: $3,633 (horizontal support); a break below this level could lead to a drop to the $3,610-3,600 range. Stronger support levels: $3562-3560 area and the psychologically important $3500 level.
Many analysts believe this pullback could be a healthy technical correction, and that gold's long-term bull market fundamentals remain solid.
Trading Strategy Recommendations:
For short-term traders, aim to profit on a rebound or further decline after a pullback, and maintain a tight stop-loss.
1: Cautiously long from now on:
First entry point: Around $3640-3645
Second entry point: $3620-3630 range
Consolidated stop-loss: Below $3610
First target: $3670-3680
Second target: $3700 (reduce or close positions)
Put on a technical rebound on a pullback to the "bullish flag" breakout point and horizontal support.
2: Short with the trend: Short on a rebound to the $3675-3685 range and stagnate.
Stop loss: above 3700 points
First target: 3650 points
Second target: 3630-3640 points
Bets that the Federal Reserve will not be as dovish as expected continue to persist. Capitalize on rallies to resistance levels and profit from pullbacks.
Go long before the data,be wary of a short-selling counterattackYesterday, gold retreated slightly in the Asian session, continuing the strong bull pattern. We originally expected to wait for gold to retreat to the support level of 3675-3665 to go long on gold, but the market always only gives us unattainable points. In the evening, gold rebounded directly to around 3703, which is in line with my previous judgment that gold will touch 3700 after stabilizing above 3665. As gold hit a new high and the Fed was about to cut interest rates, some buyers on the upper side chose to take profits, which gave us another opportunity to retreat to the ideal point. We also successfully seized the opportunity to go long on gold. This morning, gold rebounded again to around 3695, and the long positions we held also made a wave of profits.
Judging from the current market conditions, yesterday's daily line closed with a positive sign, and 3703 became the short-term high point. The lower moving averages MA5 and MA10 in the daily chart are around 3665 and 3635 respectively, which is exactly the middle track position of the Bollinger band. Only when it effectively falls below this point, will gold usher in a trend reversal in the short term. 3665 is the key position for the top and bottom conversion, and the market's enthusiasm for a 50 basis point interest rate cut remains unabated. If gold falls back to 3665-3655 again in the European session without breaking, then gold will rebound. Therefore, before the data is released, I choose to go long on gold again and expect a rebound, with the short-term target at 3685-3705. Bros can gradually reduce their positions during the rebound or take profits and exit at appropriate points according to their own account conditions.
Rate Decision Looms: Short Sellers Poised to StrikeGold continued to decline and is currently supported around 3660 and showing signs of rebound. I don’t hold any orders at the moment because I am currently preparing for the Federal Reserve interest rate decision news market! In fact, I have made part of the plan yesterday and today. Until now, I still tend to believe that the gold market will rise and then fall, but we must grasp the trading rhythm and entry price in the transaction.
In fact, before the Fed's interest rate announcement, gold retreated to around 3660. After this significant retreat, we can lower our expectations for a gold rally on news. Based on the current structure, the upper limit for gold bulls lies in the 3710-3720 area, and it's possible that the 3703 area has become the current high.
As gold retreats to around 3660, bullish momentum has weakened, and short-term resistance has shifted to the 3680-3690 area. Therefore, I might consider initiating a short position in gold in this area. If gold falls below the 3660-3650 range due to market news, it could continue its decline to the 3635-3625 range.
Since we currently hold no positions, we have the initiative in trading. As long as we allocate lots appropriately and strictly control risk, it's difficult not to make a profit! So, let's wish you good luck!
Gold: Fed Rate Cuts AheadGold: Fed Rate Cuts Ahead
Gold trades near record highs at $3,665 as markets brace for the Fed’s policy decision. A 25 bps cut—the first this year—is widely expected amid labor market weakness. While the move is largely priced in, the spotlight is on Powell’s press conference and the updated dot plot for clues on the pace of future easing.
A soft tone could pressure the dollar and push XAUUSD toward fresh highs, but underdelivery risks short-term pullbacks. Despite recent profit-taking, gold remains supported by safe-haven demand, strong retail interest, and expectations of further monetary easing. Traders are eyeing resistance near $3,700, while support holds around $3,640.
16-09-2025 XAUUSDAs shown in the figure: 15M Bullish Cypher
The market is not always chaotic and disorderly, and there is a precise geometric beauty hidden in price fluctuations. The harmonic form long strategy is a powerful tool for accurately identifying potential market reversal points based on the Fibonacci ratio. When the form forms perfectly at the key support level, it often indicates the depletion of bearish momentum and the initiation of bullish trends.
How long can gold hold the $3,700 mark?How long can gold hold the $3,700 mark?
Today, gold prices briefly hit $3,699/oz, a new all-time high and approaching the $3,700 mark.
The market is clearly overbought.
This suggests that gold prices may face correction pressure in the short term, but a deeper correction is unlikely given strong fundamental support.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday (September 18th) is currently the focus of market attention.
The market generally expects a 25 basis point rate cut, but some analysts believe a 50 basis point cut is possible.
As shown in the chart:
Breakout: Gold prices have accelerated upward again after breaking through the previous flag consolidation pattern.
4-hour chart:
Short-term support: Around $3,670, currently the nearest dynamic support level for the day.
Trading strategy:
Intraday long strategy:
Consider building a position in batches when gold prices stabilize in the $3,660-3,670 area (the aforementioned support level).
Short Strategy:
Given the overbought market, aggressive traders could test short positions with a small amount near key resistance levels (e.g., $3,700), maintaining tight stop-loss orders and targeting near-term support levels.
However, this is a counter-trend play and carries a high level of risk.
Key Recommendation: Avoid chasing highs and selling lows; both long and short positions should be based on key price levels.
Expectations of a Fed rate cut: This is the most core driver at this time.
Gold prices could experience a healthy 5%-6% correction in the short term.
If this occurs, key support lies below the $3,650-3,620 level.
GOLD LONG ENTRY, WAIT FOR GOOD SELL CONFIRMATION
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Monetary Policy Decisions The Federal Reserve is anticipated to announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, potentially including an interest rate cut. Other central banks (Canada, England, Japan) will also announce their decisions soon.
Strong support is seen at the $3500 psychological level , with immediate support at the $3664 level.
Resistance levels are identified at $3686, $3715, and $3743.
Strong Resistance is seen at the $3750 psychological level.
Technical indicators show overbought conditions.
Gold price analysis September 15Gold price is still fluctuating in the accumulation zone of 3657 - 3620 without showing enough strength to break this range. There is no clear signal of a downward correction wave, so the priority for trading during this period is still to wait for BUY according to the main uptrend. SELL orders should only be executed when there is a decisive break of the lower edge of the accumulation zone, then the price can continue to decrease to the important support zone of 3580 on the weekly chart.
📉 Notable trading zones:
Prioritize BUY when the price reacts positively at the support zone of 3580
DCA is possible when the price breaks and closes a confirmation candle above 3657
🎯 Expected target: 3716
XAUUSD DAILY MARKET INSIGHT 15th SEP 2025
MARKET INSIGHT - DAILY REPORT
Date: 15th September 2025
Instrument: XAUUSD
Economic Data: USD Empire State Manufacturing Index
TREND
Weekly: Up while >3540-05
Daily: Limited upside while >3580
Hourly: Congestion up while >3612
Weekly Range:
Low: 3625/3580
High: 3675/95/3715 (May extend towards 3750-70/3800-35)
Daily Range:
Low: 3625/3612-05
High: 3656-75/3685/3695 (May extend towards 3715/3730)
Daily Key Support/Resistance:
Low: 3625/3612
High: 3656/3675-95/3715
PRICE ACTION
XAUUSD is in a long-term uptrend on both weekly and daily charts but is currently in a congestion phase with limited upside. The asset is deeply overbought on daily and 6-hour timeframes, suggesting a correction is due. However, the target (3695/3715-50 or even 3800-35) has yet to be reached.
SENTIMENT
Market sentiment is mixed with a cautious bullish bias on daily and hourly timeframes. A final push towards 3695/3715-50 is expected before a correction occurs.
TIMING THE MARKET
Today is a flat day with an upside bias. A cautiously bullish stance is recommended until the FOMC rate announcement.
Daily Waves: Pointing upwards with consolidation expected in the near term.
Hourly Wave: Expected to bottom around 3630/3625 (likely seen at 9:15 AM SGT).
15-Minute Wave: Expected to range within 3625/3656 until 18:00 SGT.
Breakout: Expect a break above 3656-75 after 20:00 SGT, targeting 3695/3715 towards the close. The asset may close near the high.
Alternative Scenario: If 3658-75 holds, consolidation within 3625/3656-75 is expected until a breakout occurs.
TRADING IDEAS
Cautious Buy: Near 3630-25 with a stop loss <3620, targeting 3656-63-75/3695/3715.
If Stopped Out: Wait for re-entry to buy at 3605 with a stop loss <3598, targeting 3620.
Note: Monitor price action closely, especially around key levels, and adjust strategies based on real-time market developments.
"XAUUSD Reversal Setup – Breakout Expected"
*Key Levels to Add:*
- *Support Zone:* 3636.40 – 3637.90
- *Resistance Zone:* 3655.90 (Target area)
- *Breakout Level:* ~3644.00
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We're expecting a *bullish reversal* from the current support zone. Price is likely to respect the rising trendline, bounce from this demand zone, and then *break out of the descending channel*, aiming toward the *resistance zone around 3655.90*.
This is a classic *trendline + demand confluence setup* with a projected *impulsive move upward* after minor pullback.
Monday 15 Sept - Trade Prediction - Scalp/Day Trade IdeaThat's a quick scalp trade idea potentially happening on monday.
I expect price to go down and retest the support level and collect orders to potentially go UP again for the All Time High.
Risky One But Just An Idea.
Let's see how it plays out on Monday.
Good Weekend Traders