Trade ideas
Gold (XAU/USD) – Short-Term Range Before Potential BreakdownGold remains in a tight consolidation phase around the $3,985–4,000 zone, following a series of lower highs and equal lows — a classic sign of market indecision before a stronger move.
From a technical perspective, the structure suggests a possible liquidity sweep toward $4,050–4,060 before a potential reversal to the downside.
Key technical zones:
Resistance: $4,060 / $4,140 / $4,185
Support: $3,940 / $3,900 / $3,825
The trendline and horizontal support alignment around $3,940 indicates where short-term buyers might attempt to defend, but failure to hold this zone could open the path toward deeper retracement targets.
The 1H EMA cluster remains flat, confirming lack of momentum, while RSI continues to reject mid-levels — a signal that bulls are losing steam.
Trading strategy idea:
Scenario 1: Wait for price to retest $4,050–4,060 zone → look for bearish rejection signals (e.g., fake breakout or bearish engulfing) → target $3,940 / $3,900.
Scenario 2: If gold breaks below $3,940 cleanly → follow short continuation toward $3,825.
This setup aligns with the broader bearish bias unless a strong daily close above $4,060 occurs.
Remember: patience before confirmation often yields better risk-reward entries.
- Keep this setup saved and follow for more daily gold strategies and liquidity-based trading insights.
Ascending Triangle pattern formation The market is getting ready for another fall.
Once market close below 3962 level, you can expect a fall for another 140 points. Though we need to be caution when it reach the level 3897, possibility of reversal.
if you are looking to buy order do wait and market is still in uptrend and the current position of market is called a pullback or retracement.
The weekly chart is also strong in short position. Until we get a clear entry buy position is not recommended. If you are getting an opportunity to buy I would recommend to trade with less quantity and less risk, do not go big.
have a pleasant trading.
Daily Analysis Bias: Bearish continuation Key Level to Watch: 3After a corrective bounce, price remains capped below 4024 resistance.
A decisive daily close under 3976.03 would confirm momentum resuming to the downside, opening the door toward the 3930 support zone and possibly extending toward 3880 if sellers maintain pressure.
Technical Context
• Trend: Downtrend remains intact (lower highs and lower lows)
• Resistance zone: 4024 – 4040
• Support zones: 3976 → 3930
• Structure: Descending channel with recent failed breakout attempt
Trading Plan:
Watch for a retest of 3976 after a break to confirm as resistance before continuation down.
A daily close back above 4024 would invalidate the bearish setup short term.
ElDoradoFx – GOLD SESSIONS ANALYSIS (03/11/2025, PRE-ASIA SESSIGold ends the NY session stabilizing near 4,009, after multiple rejections from 4,025–4,030, confirming that sellers are still defending the upper liquidity zone. Meanwhile, buyers continue holding 4,004–3,995, maintaining a short-term ascending structure. This compression phase between resistance and support signals an imminent breakout setup — with Asia likely to decide direction for the next leg.
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📊 Technical Outlook
🔹 D1: Gold remains bullish above the 100EMA, sustaining higher lows from 3,962 → 3,985 → 3,995. RSI ~52 — neutral but holding mid-range momentum. Daily breakout above 4,025 could reopen the path toward 4,060–4,082.
🔹 H1: Structure compressing between 4,025 resistance and 3,995 support. EMAs converging; MACD neutral with low volatility — ideal for a pre-breakout scenario.
🔹 15M–5M: Price forming equal highs at 4,011–4,012 and higher lows near 4,004. RSI 54–58, indicating gradual bullish accumulation before volatility expansion.
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✨ Fibonacci Golden Zone (Last Swing 3,995 → 4,030)
38.2% = 4,016
50.0% = 4,012
61.8% = 4,008
🎯 Golden Zone: 4,016 – 4,008 (acting as key liquidity zone and short-term pivot).
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🎯 High Probability Zones
📈 BUY SCENARIO (Primary Bias)
✅ Buy Zone: 4,016 – 4,008 (Golden Zone)
🎯 Targets: 4,025 → 4,036 → 4,046 → 4,060
🛑 Stop Loss: Below 3,995
⚡ Confirmation: Bullish engulfing or CHoCH above 4,012–4,016 with MACD crossover upward.
📊 Bias Rationale: The market continues to respect higher lows and absorb liquidity dips — indicating smart money accumulation around the Golden Zone.
💥 Breakout BUY Setup
Trigger: Break & close above 4,025
Retest: 4,022–4,024
🎯 Targets: 4,036 → 4,046 → 4,060 → 4,082
🛑 Stop Loss: Below 4,010
📉 SELL SCENARIO (Contingency Setup)
⚠️ Sell Zone: 4,025 – 4,036 (liquidity pocket + supply zone)
🎯 Targets: 4,012 → 4,004 → 3,985 → 3,965
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 4,046
⚡ Confirmation: Sharp rejection or RSI divergence >65 from 4,025–4,030 area.
📉 Break & Retest SELL Setup
Trigger: Break below 3,995
Retest: 4,000–3,997
🎯 Targets: 3,982 → 3,965 → 3,945
🛑 Stop Loss: Above 4,008
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📰 Fundamental Watch
• Asia session: Low-impact day; volatility expected from liquidity sweeps.
• US Dollar Index (DXY) holding above 106 — mild pressure on gold short-term.
• Global markets: Traders positioning ahead of Fed and NFP later this week, keeping gold in range mode for now.
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📌 Key Levels
Resistance: 4,025 / 4,036 / 4,046 / 4,060
Support: 4,012 / 4,004 / 3,995 / 3,982
Golden Zone: 4,016 – 4,008
Break Buy Trigger: > 4,025
Break Sell Trigger: < 3,995
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✅ Summary (Expert View)
Gold remains bullish-to-neutral, consolidating between 4,004–4,025.
The Fibonacci Golden Zone (4,016–4,008) continues to act as the core decision area — expect Asia to attempt a liquidity sweep before breakout.
⚡ Expert Bias: BUY setup favored above 4,008, targeting 4,036–4,046.
Bearish bias only if 3,995 breaks cleanly.
What will happen to gold on November 3rd?
I. Market Analysis
Trend Structure
Weekly Chart: Price is below the 5-week moving average, with the MACD showing a bearish crossover. Bearish forces dominate in the near term. However, the long-term ascending trendline support is near $3900. The long-term trend remains cautiously bullish as long as this level holds decisively.
Daily Chart: Moving averages are in a bearish alignment, and the Bollinger Bands are expanding downward, with price pressured near the middle/lower band. Key resistance is at 4046. Support is focused in the 3972-3950 zone. A break below 3972 could lead to a further decline towards 3950-3900.
Key Support & Resistance Levels
Resistance Zone: 4010 (Weakness Boundary) → 4023-4035 (Core Short Area) → 4047-4055 (Strong Resistance).
Support Zone: 3980 (Initial Support) → 3950-3955 (Long Area) → 3915-3885 (Deep Correction Target).
II. Trading Strategy
Core Idea: Prioritize selling on rallies, with opportunistic buying near key support levels. Strict risk control is essential.
Short Strategy (Primary)
Entry Zone: Enter short positions in batches between 4030-4035. Consider adding to shorts if price reaches 4047-4055.
Stop Loss: Above 4040-4060 (Adjust flexibly between 8-10 pips based on position size).
Targets: First target 3980, Second target 3960-3950 (Hold if broken).
Long Strategy (Secondary)
Entry Condition: Consider light long positions upon stabilization in the 3950-3955 zone after a pullback.
Stop Loss: Below 3940 (8-10 pips).
Targets: First target 3980-4000, Second target 4010 (Follow up if broken).
III. Risk Control Essentials
Position Management: Single trade position ≤ 5% of capital. Avoid heavy positions.
Stop-Loss Discipline: Strictly place stops for shorts above 4060 and for longs below 3940.
Contingency Alert: Monitor the US Dollar Index, Fed policy动向, and geopolitical risks closely. Adjust strategies promptly if key levels are breached.
IV. Summary
Gold's short-term technical posture is bearish, but the long-term trend requires monitoring the effectiveness of the 3900 support.
If price rallies and faces resistance in the 4030-4055 zone next Monday, prioritize short entries.
If price pulls back and stabilizes near 3950, consider light long positions for a bounce.
If price strongly breaks above 4060 or below 3940, a reassessment of the trend will be necessary.
Bearish Setup – Rejection from Supply ZonePrice recently swept the previous liquidity near the recent low, confirming that internal liquidity has been collected. Now, the market is showing a potential move back toward the rejection area / order block (OB) above.
Here’s the plan:
Waiting for price to retrace into the rejection area (OB) around 4,038–4,040.
Once we see bearish confirmation on the 1-minute timeframe, we’ll look to enter short.
This zone represents a strong supply area where price previously showed rejection.
After liquidity sweep and retracement, expecting a continuation to the downside targeting new lows.
Key Notes:
Liquidity below recent lows has already been taken.
The current push upward is likely a retracement before a deeper drop.
Watch for bearish price action (engulfing, BOS, or rejection wick) before entering.
Bias: Bearish
Confirmation: 1M timeframe rejection
Targets: New structure low
$3800 target for Gold coming soonExpecting Gold to have a minor Drop to $3800. Then Hover back to test $4000 again.
So load up when it drops.
Happy investing all!
xauusd possible moveConsidering what l have mapped down, this is likely gold's next path
Analyse, execute, monitor
Disclaimer : Risk as per self responsible
1:10RR GOLD BUY SETUP FOR THE WEEKWe are looking for a bullish setup for the week. Price has broke shifted structure to the upside so will be only looking for buys this week. On our chart we have a breaker block which also confluences with our 61.8% Fibonacci. That's where we will be looking to take our trade.
ENTRY:3982
TP:4053
SL:3974
Gold holds above $4000 — waiting for breakout confirmation🟠 Market Overview
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $4012, moving in a narrow range between $4000 – $4020.
Buying pressure remains firm near the psychological support at $4000, while sellers are defending the $4025–$4030 resistance zone.
The market is in a neutral consolidation phase, waiting for direction before the U.S. session tonight.
📊 Technical Analysis
• Near-term support: $4000 – $4003
• Near-term resistance: $4025 – $4028
• EMA50 (H1): currently around $4008 — acting as dynamic support.
• RSI (H1): near 48 — neutral, suitable for two-way scalping setups.
🔎 Outlook
Gold is “compressing” around $4010.
Main scenario: if the price holds above $4000 and confirms a bullish H1 candle, the upward trend could resume toward $4035–$4050.
Conversely, if the price closes below $3998, a pullback to $3985 becomes likely.
→ Prefer BUY setups on support reactions, and SELL setups only on strong rejection near resistance.
🎯 TRADE STRATEGY
🔺 BUY XAU/USD : $3987 – $3984
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: $3980
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🔻 SELL XAU/USD : $4026 – $4029
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: $4033
downtrend is over so gold is ready for the upsidegold might be able to make a correction towards the upside to correct the impulsive bearish movement.
we expect gold to be heading towards 4165 area.
INVALID SELLClose this trade because it's likely going to buy more , it doesn't look favorable to sell so let close and wait for another opportunity
What's next for the yellow metal?We've had an incredible run from September until late October, and even when the pullback started it was a solid move. And, so what's up now? Well, as you see in the chart for the converse ICT or SMC traders, the stacked Weekly BISI (Buyside Imbalance Sellside Ineffiency) held solid support to keep price from pushing any lower. Based on the current Dealing Range, price closed within the Discount range. I'd like to see price make a push higher and possibly testing into 4150, and maybe it'll start to create a base there for another leg higher. I won't be so ambitious to expect another ATH just yet, it'll take some time for price build some soild ground first. I'm expecting another range bound trades again until 4200 can be broken to confirm buyside momentum still intact.
Good luck and safe trade.
Gold (XAUUSD) Trade PlanGold (XAUUSD) Trade Plan
At the moment, this is the observation phase — I want to see which direction the market moves first.
The ideal scenario would be a gap-down open, followed by a liquidity grab below the previous week’s low, and then a move to the upside.
There’s a daily bearish Fair Value Gap (FVG) above that remains unmitigated, so if the market takes out the weekly low first and then starts showing strength, I’ll be looking for long setups targeting that upper imbalance.
However, if price fails to hold above the CISD level and breaks lower structure instead, I’ll shift my bias to bearish continuation toward the weekly T2 and DOL zones.
For now, patience is key — waiting for the first move to reveal direction before making any trade decisions.
XAU USD - Corrective wave ABC?Updte to previous post.
Still long, awaiting the corrective structure to occur - firstly to break and hold under $4000 (key level).
Downward channel - to $3800 which is another area of interest - reason being, it holds high volume at a structure point under $3800. So, we sit tight and await the corrective pattern to emerge and complete.
Daily chart image shows my thought pattern and an opportunity I am waiting for price to revert to.
I'm referring to the Daily price chart and key counts are in line with Wave counting and supply and demand curve trading levels based on fair value gap intervals of weekly trading sessions plotted to a daily chart at intervals of 60.
Current wave - 3 of 5 in the Elliott wave count.
Experiencing ABC corrective structure.
Master Key for zones
Red = Three Month
Blue = Monthly
Purple = weekly
Pink = Consolidative box example (Daily)
Orange = Daily
Risk Warning
Trading leveraged products such as Forex, commodities and CFDs, carries with it a high level of risk and so may not be suitable for every investor. Prior to trading the foreign exchange, commodity or CFD market, consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. You should never risk more than you can afford to lose. If you fail to understand or are uncertain of the risks involved, please seek independent advice and remember to conduct due diligence as criteria varies to suit the individual.
Below are some of the take aways from the video - please listen again incase any detail is missed.
Do you enjoy the setups?
Professional analyst with 8+ years experience in the capital markets
Focus on technical output not fundamentals
Focus on investing for long term positional moves
Provide updates where necessary - with new updated ideas tracking the progress.
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To all the followers, thank you for your continued support.
Thanks,
LVPA MMXXIV
Possible BUY Opportunity for NovemberReason for Buy
- Fed Rate is weak for USD
- Price action is already forming higher highs
- wait for price to pullback from 4126 to 4043
- then enter buy
Other Scenario:
- on monday price may pullback further
- will go sideways on 3972 - 4044 range
- or trace liquidity beyond 3916
DO NOT TRADE WITHOUT PROPER CONFIRMATION
BULLISHNESS BECOMING WEAKBears gaining momentum, it looks like bullishness is coming to an end but not confirmed yet, until price closes below 3993 by 12pm or for best confirmation by 4pm.
XAU/USD: Bearish Decline to 3827?OANDA:XAUUSD is exhibiting bearish momentum on the 1-hour chart , with price respecting a downward trendline and pulling back toward the EMA 50 (1H) as dynamic resistance, creating a prime short opportunity near the highlighted entry zone amid ongoing consolidation. This setup suggests continuation of the downtrend if sellers push through toward lower supports. 🎯
Entry zone between 3979-4020 for a sell position. Target at 3827 near the support and take profit zone, yielding a risk-reward ratio greater than 1:2.5 . Set a stop loss on a close above 4035 to manage risk. 🌟 Await confirmation with a bearish close below the entry and rising volume, tapping into gold's sensitivity to USD strength.
Fundamentally , this week features the FOMC meeting on October 29, where the Fed's rate decision could bolster the dollar if hawkish tones prevail. Additionally, outcomes from the ongoing Trump-Xi trade talks—kicking off this week in Asia—could spark major market volatility, potentially pressuring gold if a US-China deal materializes. 💡
📝 Trade Plan:
🎯 Entry Zone: 3979 – 4020 (short setup near resistance)
❌ Stop Loss: Close above 4035
✅ Target: 3827 (support / take-profit zone)
💎 Risk-to-Reward: Greater than 1:2.5, offering an excellent downside opportunity for disciplined traders.
What's your view on this gold drop? Comment below! 👇
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for October 31Gold Technical Analysis:
Daily chart resistance: 4090, support: 3890.
4-hour chart resistance: 4050, support: 3915.
1-hour chart resistance: 4030, support: 3988.
After a double bottom yesterday, gold prices rebounded again, even briefly reaching 4040 today. However, this momentum was short-lived, and prices fell back again during the Asian session. Currently, it's around 4000.
Today is Friday, the end of both the weekly and monthly charts. Various indicators suggest that the gold correction is far from over, so this rebound is merely a small pause in the downtrend and cannot be considered a reversal.
Today's trading strategy is to deal with the market within a range, focusing on support at 3988-3950 and resistance at 4030/4050/4100.
SELL: 4050 near
BUY: 3988 near
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XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchYesterday’s analysis is playing out as expected — after breaking above the 3987 resistance, gold tested the 4042 level, but failed to sustain momentum and pulled back for a retest of 3987, now acting as short-term support.
We need to see a clear break of either level to confirm direction, otherwise price may continue to range within this zone before the next move.
A break above 4,042 could open the way for a push toward 4095 and 4137, while a break below 3987 would likely trigger a move back toward the Deeper Support Zone (3,944–3,884).
📌 Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
4042
4095
4137
4178
Support:
3987
3944
3884
3820
XAU/USD – Gold Maintains Short-Term Uptrend, Target $4,108🔍 Market Context
Gold continues to uphold a short-term bullish structure after forming a clear Change of Character (ChoCH) around the 3,926 USD area.
Buyers are in control as prices consistently create higher lows and react positively at the Order Block + Support Trendline zone.
As long as prices remain above the 3,940–3,926 USD range, the bullish structure is preserved.
💎 Key Technical Zones
• Order Block Bullish: 3,926 USD → main support zone, confluence with rising trendline.
• Fair Value Gap (FVG): 3,942 – 3,972 USD → potential liquidity absorption zone.
• Resistance Zone: 4,032 USD → short-term barrier, needs to break to confirm continued upward momentum.
• Liquidity Zone: 4,108 USD → extended target if the above resistance is breached.
🎯 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ BUY Setup – Prioritize catching the retracement from the support zone
• Entry: 3,942 – 3,926 USD
• Stop Loss: 3,910 USD
• Take Profit:
– TP1: 3,972
– TP2: 4,032
– TP3: 4,064
– TP4: 4,108
✳️ “Buy the discount” – Prioritize entries at the confluence of OB + FVG to follow Smart Money flow.
2️⃣ SELL Scalp – Short-term at resistance zone
• Entry: 4,032 – 4,048 USD
• Stop Loss: 4,060 USD
• Take Profit:
– TP1: 4,010
– TP2: 3,972
– TP3: 3,942
✳️ “Sell the premium” – Only activate if a clear price rejection signal appears at resistance.
💬 Summary
The current structure remains bullish short-term with the 3,926 USD area as the key invalidation zone .
As long as prices stay above the trendline, the immediate target is the 4,108 USD liquidity zone.
Optimal strategy: Buy on dip – Sell on reaction.
💡 Today's Tagline:
“Smart Money buys fear, sells greed — follow the footprints, not the noise.”
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Update: 31/10/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
