H4 XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – September 8–12, 2025Hello traders, gold ended last week at 3585–3600, breaking into fresh highs. The H4 chart now sets the battlefield for this week: we refine the institutional zones into clear swing areas where liquidity and reactions are most likely. With PPI (Sep 10) and CPI (Sep 11) ahead, these zones will shape the flow 👇
🔸 H4 Structure & Trend
Trend: Strong bullish → higher highs and higher lows continue.
EMAs (5/21/50/100/200) → perfectly aligned, EMA21 supports short-term structure.
RSI: Near 68, showing momentum strength but stretched into premium levels.
Bias: Bullish, but with room for correction into lower demand zones.
🔑 H4 Structural Zones
Upside Supply / Resistance
3615–3635 → First H4 supply, immediate test zone above 3600.
3665–3685 → Main H4 supply of the week, strong resistance cluster.
3735–3755 → Extended upside supply, only unlocked if CPI/PPI favor gold.
Downside Demand / Support
3565–3545 → Nearest H4 demand, aligned with EMA21.
3525–3505 → Secondary demand, key support base if 3550 fails.
3465–3445 → Deeper H4 demand, liquidity zone and EMA100 alignment.
📌 Weekly Scenarios
Bullish Path 🟢
If gold holds above 3565–3545, buyers can defend and attack higher levels.
Break above 3615–3635 unlocks 3665–3685.
Macro momentum (weak CPI/PPI) could drive extension into 3735–3755.
Bearish Path 🔴
Rejection at 3615–3635 may drag gold back into 3565–3545.
Losing this zone opens 3525–3505.
If macro favors USD, deeper test into 3465–3445 becomes possible.
✅ Conclusion & Action Plan
The H4 map with wide zones gives clarity for the week:
3565–3545 → key demand lifeline.
3615–3635 → immediate ceiling.
3665–3685 → decisive zone for continuation or reversal.
Expect sideways early in the week, then breakout volatility around Wednesday’s PPI and Thursday’s CPI.
✨ Will bulls break 3615–3635 early, or do we dip into 3545–3525 first? Share your thoughts , 🚀🚀🚀and follow GoldFxMinds for weekly precision outlooks 🚀
GOLDCFD trade ideas
Gold Technical Analysis – Is a Pullback Coming?Hello everyone, Ken here!
Looking at the chart, gold is still trading within a clear rising channel, but the price has now moved up to the upper boundary. This is an area where profit-taking pressure often appears and can act as dynamic resistance.
If buying momentum weakens, the market is likely to see a short-term correction toward the support zone around 3,630 USD. If buyers defend this level, the bullish trend can continue. On the other hand, if support is broken, gold may retreat further toward the lower boundary of the channel.
The key is to watch candlestick signals and volume at these critical levels. Careful risk management should always be the top priority before making decisions. Trade safe!
Mitigation: Where Smart Money Reloads“The first touch after a shift is often the cleanest. But only if you know where to wait.”
After a ChoCH or Break of Structure , price often returns to the origin of the move.
This return is called Mitigation — where big players close remaining positions and open new ones in the direction of the fresh trend.
Why Mitigation Matters
Most traders jump in immediately after a BoS, afraid of missing the move.
But professional traders understand something crucial:
The market almost always comes back.
Mitigation is where the market “refuels” before continuing.
It offers:
Smaller stop losses (tighter risk)
Clear invalidation points
Cleaner entries with better risk-reward
How to Spot Mitigation Zones
Find the last opposing candle before the strong move (bearish candle before a bullish rally, bullish candle before a sell-off).
Mark its open–close range as your mitigation block.
Wait for price to return to this area — patience is key.
Drop to a lower timeframe (M15 or M1) and wait for confirmation (ChoCH/BOS) before entry.
Practical Example (Gold)
Suppose Gold breaks structure upward (BoS).
Instead of buying the breakout, look left to locate the last bearish candle before that strong rally.
Price often revisits this candle’s range.
When it does, observe lower timeframe structure:
If it holds, that’s your entry — right where smart money is filling orders.
This is why the first pullback after a BoS is often the cleanest trade — it’s not random.
It’s the market completing unfinished business.
📘 Shared by @ChartIsMirror
Have you seen this play out on your own charts?
Share your thoughts — where did price last revisit a zone before making a big move?
GOLD: market at a crossroads after the impulseOn the 1H chart, gold remains in an uptrend channel, but after testing the 3545–3550 zone, a corrective pullback is possible. The red lines represent a projected head-and-shoulders scenario, but the pattern is not yet confirmed - it remains only a forecast. Key levels to watch: 3510 as initial support and 3480 as a deeper target if price breaks the channel to the downside. As long as price holds above, the broader trend remains bullish.
From a fundamental perspective , weak ADP employment data provided short-term support, yet the market reaction was muted since dovish Fed expectations are already priced in. Stronger dollar data or rising Treasury yields could put renewed pressure on gold. Fed commentary in the coming days will be crucial for market direction.
Tactical plan: monitor the 3545–3550 zone where sellers may step in. A confirmed break below 3510 opens the way to 3480, but without a completed head-and-shoulders, the move remains speculative. Gold is notorious for punishing premature shorts, so caution is warranted.
Bullish market Hi traders
Given the sharp and strong upward trend in gold last week and the fundamental news in the market, I expect gold to rise this week as well.
I think as long as the psychological support level of 3500 holds for gold, it is not far off to see the 3640-3660 level.
Gold may make a correction to 3565 or even deeper correction to 3539 and then move towards the stated targets.
One scenario is shown with a green line and the other with a purple line on the chart.
Possible positions this week
A:Suitable prices for BUY positions
1)3565
2)3539
B:Suitable prices for SELL positions
1)3640-3660
(Of course, with approval from the market and the type of candles)
This is just an analysis and everyone is responsible for their own work.
Hoping for a good and profitable week.
XAUUSD – Bulls Gaining the Edge?👋Hello everyone, what do you think about OANDA:XAUUSD ?
Yesterday, the market received a series of key US data, sending gold into constant swings. Here’s a quick breakdown of the impact on the precious metal:
🔻 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: 54K < 73K (forecast) < 106K (previous) → Labor market weakens → USD down → Gold supported.
🔻 Unemployment Claims: 237K > 230K (forecast) > 229K (previous) → Jobless claims rise → USD down → Gold supported.
🔺 ISM Services PMI: 52.0 > 50.9 (forecast) > 50.1 (previous) → Services expand → USD stronger → Gold under pressure.
👉 Overall: 2 out of 3 data points came in negative for the USD, creating downward pressure on the dollar and supporting gold. Even though services data was positive, market sentiment still leans toward expectations of a less hawkish Fed → easing yields → gold benefits.
Preferred Strategy: Look for potential buying zones at support and Fibonacci retracement levels. The main target is a safe move above the trendline, with 3575 in focus.
Risk: If price closes below support, wait for fresh signals to identify safer entry points.
So, what do you think? Where will XAUUSD head next, and at what price will today’s session end?
Good luck!
XAUUSD: Consolidating the bullish momentumHi everyone, it’s Ken!
At this moment, gold is shining with strong appeal. The market is moving within a steep channel, and price action continues to respect its structure, forming higher highs without showing weakness.
Not long ago, gold broke a key resistance level and might come back to retest it. Interestingly, this area also aligns with the “golden zone” from the last breakout. If buyers defend it well, the bullish outlook remains valid, with the next target aiming toward 3,660 – the channel’s peak.
As long as price stays above the support and the rising trendline, the uptrend remains intact. However, if it slips below, chances of a deeper pullback will rise.
Stay patient, wait for confirmation before entering, and always protect your capital with proper risk management.
Wishing you success!
A review after 53 months!On April 11th, 2021 I published this analysis which I believe is second to none for timing and price target accuracy!
Gold is money. Everything else is credit. (J. P. Morgan)
Gold has at least 5000 years of history, so this is just an analysis based on the last 1% ..!
It is obvious that Gold's past 2 bullish rallies last for 10 years..! and I believe we are in the middle of the 3rd one which could push Gold's price to 3500-4000 USD/oz in the next 4-5 years.
If you do simple research about the corrected value of gold based on the inflation after lifting the gold standard. (In August 1971, Nixon severed the direct convertibility of U.S. dollars into gold. With this decision, the international currency market, which had become increasingly reliant on the dollar since the enactment of the Bretton Woods Agreement, lost its formal connection to gold.)
A long-term US dollar gold price since 1700, inflation-adjusted by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
shows based on this CPI adjustment, that the all-time real high of the US dollar gold price was in January 1980 at the US $ 3045 per troy ounce.
Gold's Market Cap
Estimated Market Cap: $11.055 T
The Market Capitalization of Gold is currently around $11.055 T.
This value was obtained by multiplying the current gold price ($1,740 per once) with the worlds' above-the-ground gold reserves.
The amount of above-ground reserves for Gold are estimated to be around 197,000 metric tonnes according to the World Gold Council. Note that the estimated ground Gold reserves can vary by up to 20% from one source to another.
As a consequence, it is safe to say that the current Market Cap of Gold is between $8.844 T and $13.265 T.
XAUUSD Can it really get to $8000???Gold (XAUUSD) has been practically on a non-stop rally since the last time it tested its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) 2 years ago (October 2023). It is no coincidence that the result of such a test was an aggressive rally, as this level has historically been Gold's long-term Support and what separates its Bull from its Bear Cycles.
More specifically, Gold has started trading within a multi-decade Channel Up since the August 1993 High. It first Bear Cycle (red Rectangle) started then end finished the moment it touched the pattern's bottom. Shortly after, the price broke sustainably above the 1M MA50, confirming the new Bull Cycle in the form of an internal (green) Channel Up.
This phase peaked a little above the 3.618 Fibonacci extension. That was when the latest Bear Cycle started, which again broke below the 1M MA50 and has been very similar in symmetrical terms to the first one. The new Bull Cycle started after the August 2018 Low.
With the use of the Time Cycles, we can estimate that in October 2029 the current long-term Bull Cycle might end. This doesn't mean that there won't be a sizeable correction until then, but the long-term bullish trend should stay intact.
By October 2029, contact with the Channel's top should have hit $8000, which is still marginally below the current 3.618 Fibonacci extension. This suggests that each of Gold's Time (Super) Cycle is approximately 18 years.
If such a continuous rise is materialized that doesn't only gives meaning to Gold's use as a 'safe-haven' but should also tell us a lot about future inflation and deliver a warning to economies and especially central bank strategy implementation.
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The Secret Formula: Time + Structure = 80% Win Rate!Hello everyone,
If you’re struggling to combine Time (multi-timeframe analysis) and Structure (market framework) to build a solid foundation for predicting what’s likely to happen in the market, this post will reveal the secret many professionals use — with up to 80% win probability!
1. The Core Mindset – Time & Structure
Every timeframe speaks a different language:
- H4, D1 = the bigger picture (overall trend).
- M15, M5, M1 = the micro view (entry signals, internal flow).
The key is: never rely on one timeframe alone – always align them.
2. POI – Points of Interest
- Each timeframe has its own POI (Points of Interest).
- Example: When you find a POI on H4 , don’t rush in.
Zoom into M15 or M5 to see what’s happening inside that zone.
3. Multi-Timeframe Alignment – The Smart Money Way
For example:
- H4: Price taps into a demand zone.
- M15: Structure shifts from bearish → bullish inside that demand zone.
This means H4 is preparing for a rally, and M15 confirms your BUY entry with higher precision.
When multiple timeframes align in the same direction, your probability skyrockets.
4. Why Always Respect the Bigger Picture?
- LTF (Lower Timeframe) = just noise or details.
- HTF (Higher Timeframe) = the real storyline.
If M15 shows a BUY but H4 is strongly bearish, you’re fighting the market.
But if M15 and H4 point the same way , you have a High Probability Setup .
5. Keys to High-Probability Trading
Identify the higher timeframe trend (H4, D1).
Mark strong POIs.
Drop to lower timeframes (M15, M5, M1) to watch for structure shifts.
Only trade when Time & Structure are aligned.
Always manage risk – place SL beyond OB/POI zones.
6. Final Takeaway
High-probability trades appear when multiple timeframes confirm the same direction.
Don’t trade on gut feeling — let Time + Structure guide you, just like Smart Money does.
Gold (XAUUSD) Long Setup — VWAP SMC + Liquidity Sweep ConfirmatiOn the 1H chart of Gold (XAUUSD), price has swept liquidity below recent lows (ABS & BT confirmation), then reclaimed Weekly VWAP support with strong bullish momentum.
The AlcoTrade Omega — VWAP SMC with Liquidity Sweeps indicator shows:
HTF Bias: LONG
Score above threshold (Score L 2.0 vs Thr 1.3)
Clear absorption and BigTrades aligning with VWAP band support
Trade Idea:
Entry: After bullish reclaim of VWAP band
Stop Loss: Below recent swing low / VWAP band support
Target: Previous highs and Weekly VAH
Risk-to-Reward ratio is favorable (>1.5).
This aligns with Smart Money Concepts (SMC) principles: liquidity grab → VWAP confirmation → trend continuation.
Tags:
#XAUUSD #Gold #VWAP #SMC #LiquiditySweep #OrderFlow #SmartMoney #TradingStrategy #VolumeAnalysis #PriceAction
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
After wrapping up our 1H chart idea, here’s the update on the 4H chart we shared Sunday. Absolute perfection. We saw the EMA5 cross and lock above 3424, which opened 3499, target hit. Then another EMA5 cross and lock above 3499 opened 3561, also hit perfectly, right to the point.
We were able to map a range target without any historical data, relying on the law of averages and it played out beautifully.
From here, we now need an EMA5 cross and lock above 3561 to open 3615. Failure to lock will likely see lower Goldturns tested for support and bounce.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3424 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3424 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3499 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3499 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3561 - DONE
BEARISH TARGETS
3347
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3347 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3277
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3277 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3234
3171
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3171 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3089
2996
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
MARKET CONTEXTMARKET CONTEXT
- Gold has broken strongly above the psychological 3500 level and is now consolidating around 3555-3560 after a continuous rally from 3480.
- Both H1 and M15 structures remain Higher High - Higher Low, showing that the uptrend is still dominant.
However, the 3560 area is the recent top and could see some profit-taking pressure.
VOLUME PROFILE & PRICE STRUCTURE (estimated by zones)
VAH (Value Area High): 3557-3562→ Short-term resistance
POC (Point of Control): 3530-3535 → Nearest balanced support zone
LVN (Low Volume Node): 3508-3515→ Price may react quickly if
POC breaks
Demand Zone H4: 3480-3485 → Strong medium-term support
SUPPORT - RESISTANCE
Resistance:
3560-3562 (short-term VAH)
3575-3580 (H1 top)
Support:
3530-3535 (POC)
3508-3515 (LVN)
3480-3485 (H4 Demand Zone)
TRADING SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: SELL reaction at 3560-3562
Conditions:
Price retests 3560-3562
Bearish Pin Bar / Engulfing on M15
Weak breakout volume
Reason:
This is the nearest VAH resistance zone
Profit-taking pressure may appear at the previous high
Target: 3535-3515
SL: Above 3568
Scenario 2: BUY at support POC 3530-3535
Conditions:
Price pulls back to 3530-3535
Bullish candlestick pattern appears (Fakey or Inside Bar)
Volume remains positive
Reason:
POC is a strong balance zone → high chance of recovery if no breakdown happens
Target: 3555 - 3565
SL: Below 3527
Scenario 3: BUY if breakout above 3562 succeeds
Conditions:
H1 closes above 3562
Retest of breakout holds above 3555
Volume confirms strong breakout
Reason:
If resistance breaks, the market can continue its uptrend Targeting the next high around 3580
Target: 3575→3580
SL: Below 3550
Scenario 4: Long-term BUY at Demand Zone 3480-3485
Conditions:
Price makes a deeper correction
Bullish Engulfing + strong absorption volume
Creates a Higher Low on M15
Reason:
This is strong H4 support
It maintains the medium-term bullish structure
Target: 3530 → 3550
SL: Below 3475
GOLD H1 | Bearish reversal off swing high resistanceBased on the H1 chart analysis, we could see the price rise to the sell entry at 3,573.66, which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to the downside.
Stop loss is at 3,573.66, which is a swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 3,484.30, which is a pullback support that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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XAUUSD Analysis – Buyers Keep Stepping InIn yesterday’s analysis, I mentioned that Gold looked overstretched, with high chances of a continuation of the correction after the recent 3579 ATH.
During the day, price rejected my selling zone twice, and once more overnight. However, buyers kept stepping in, forming higher lows and pushing price back toward the 3560 resistance zone. This behavior signals upward pressure.
If this resistance finally breaks, the probability of seeing yet another ATH towards 3600 increases significantly.
For now, I’m out of the market, with but looking to buy if buying pressure persists
Gold Price Analysis September 5On the larger time frame, the current wave structure is quite difficult to clearly identify, so we temporarily switch to the H1 analysis.
At this point, the 3355 zone is an important barrier in the short-term trend. With the bullish momentum of the candle, it is likely that this level will soon be broken, opening up an opportunity for the price to move towards the historical peak of 3575, and may even extend to 3610 today.
On the contrary, the correction scenario will only be triggered when the 3540 zone is broken, in which case the price may retreat to the important support level of 3514. If 3514 continues to be broken, the downward correction trend will be confirmed.
📌 Reference strategy:
BUY when the price breaks through 3355 (according to the breakout system).
BUY DCA when it crosses 3375, long target towards 3610.
SELL only activates if the trendline at 3340 is broken, target around 3515.
XAU/USD - A Clear Sentiment IndicatorDear Friends in Trading,
“I share only my perspective. In this industry, learning never ends, but progress comes when we learn from mistakes without repeating them.” - ANROC
A) The message is clear:
Market Sentiment = "RISK OFF"
B) Food for Thought:
US Treasury Bonds - "$" is also a safe haven commodity under "RISK-OFF" Sentiment.
Let that sink in.
I sincerely hope my point of view offers a valued insight.
Thank you for taking the time study my analysis.
GOLD: A Short-Term Trading Perspective - 15-Minute ChartGOLD: A Short-Term Trading Perspective - 15-Minute Chart
During the early European morning, Gold fell by almost 1.9% from 3578.5 to 3511.2
This correction was driven by profit taking given that we are in a strong uptrend.
At the moment, gold remains bullish on all timeframes.
On the 15-minute chart, if gold holds strong above 3533, it has higher chances of rising to 3552.6 and 3575.
If gold experiences another gain, it could test, then it could test 3511 - 3515 before moving higher again.
Overall, gold trading remains very risky.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Gold 09/09 - Waiting for a pullback to Buy safely| New ATH ahead🔎 Captain’s Log – News Context
FED : The probability of a September rate cut is now almost certain, reinforcing confidence that flows will continue moving into Gold.
Dollar : Dropped to a 7-week low due to FED rate cut expectations, adding further support for Gold.
US Economic Data : No major news today, the market focus remains on interest rates.
⏩ Captain’s Summary: Gold remains in a strong uptrend. However, Vincent advises waiting for a pullback into support to Buy safely , avoiding chasing price at higher levels.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical Analysis
Storm Breaker (Resistance / Sell Zone) :
Quick Boarding: 3654 – 3656 (Short-term Sell scalp)
Storm Breaker Peak: 3673 – 3675 (Sell zone – potential new ATH)
Golden Harbor (Support / Buy Zone) :
Buy Scalp Dock: 3615 – 3617
Main Golden Harbor: 3597 – 3599 (Strong support)
Price structure remains bullish after multiple BOS – Break of Structure. Current highs may trigger short-term profit-taking waves before Gold pulls back to Golden Harbor and then rallies toward ATH 367x .
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios
✅ Golden Harbor (BUY – Priority with trend)
Buy Scalp: 3615 – 3617 | SL: 3598 | TP: 3620 → 3623 → 3626 → 3630 → 36xx
Main Buy Zone: 3597 – 3599 | SL: 3589 | TP: 3660 → 3663 → 3666 → 3670 → 36xx
⚡ Quick Boarding (SELL Scalp – Only at resistance)
Sell Zone 1: 3654 – 3656 | SL: 3662 | TP: 3650 → 3647 → 3644 → 3640 → 36xx
Sell Zone 2 – Storm Breaker Peak (ATH test): 3673 – 3675 | SL: 3682 | TP: 3670 → 3667 → 3664 → 3660 → 36xx
⚓ Captain’s Note
“The interest rate winds from the FED continue to power the Golden sails. Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3597 – 3599) is the safe haven for sailors trusting the bullish tide. Quick Boarding 🚤 (3615 – 3617) is just a short ride before the voyage resumes. Storm Breaker 🌊 (3654 – 3675) may bring big waves, but it’s only suitable for technical scalps – as the main current still carries Gold toward new highs.”
Gold Potential Reversal Ahead - Gold Sell OpportunityGold is currently trading around 3647 after making a strong bullish move. Price has reached near a weak high zone and is showing signs of exhaustion, which indicates a possible retracement. The immediate resistance at 3659 has created a weak high. If Gold fails to sustain above this level, sellers are likely to step in, pushing price down toward the levels at 3620 – 3604. A confirmed rejection candle around the sell zone will act as the sell trigger, with 3578 as a deeper bearish target if momentum increases.
🔑 Key Levels to Watch:
- Resistance: 3687 – 3712
- Support: 3,628 - 3600
📌 Sell Zone & Sell Trigger:
- Sell Zone: 3670 – 3685 area
- Sell Trigger: A rejection candle or confirmation of failure to break above 3670 – 3685 zone.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
(Alchemy) Gold Punches More All-Time HighsGold continues its march higher.
There appears to be a triangle formation from April 2025 to July 2025 labeled A-B-C-D-E.
We know from our Elliott wave studies that triangles appear at certain places within the larger wave count. Triangles, in most situations, are the 2nd to last wave of the sequence.
In the case for gold, this implies the rally is the final wave of a larger bullish sequence.
There are a cluster of wave relationships appearing near $3,680 . This might provide the end to a wave 3. Once those 5-waves count off to the upside, the risk of another bearish or sideways pattern increases.