Gold Extends Decline Below $4,000 as Risk Appetite Returns๐ Market Context
Gold continues to struggle amid renewed optimism around USโChina trade talks.
The shift in sentiment has reduced safe-haven demand, while softer expectations of further Fed rate cuts keep the US Dollar capped โ offering limited downside support for XAUUSD.
However, the technical landscape remains clearly bearish.
The break below the $4,000 handle confirms continuation of the downtrend first outlined in early-week plans.
๐ Technical Analysis
Structure: Gold maintains a clean bearish channel on the H1โH4 frame.
Immediate resistance: $3,985 โ $4,000 (former support, now supply zone).
Target zones:
โข Short-term liquidity area near $3,925โ$3,930
โข Extended target sits around $3,880โ$3,860, aligning with Fibo 1.618.
Invalidation: Only a sustained break and hold above $4,020โ$4,030 would neutralize this short-term bearish bias.
๐ฏ Trading Outlook
If gold retests the broken $4,000 zone and fails to regain it,
expect sellers to extend control toward $3,920 or lower ahead of the FOMC meeting.
That event may later define the next recovery point โ but for now, momentum remains firmly on the downside.
โ๏ธ Summary
Goldโs recent slide isnโt random โ itโs structural.
The market is rebalancing after excessive bullish sentiment,
and liquidity below $3,900 is likely to attract attention before any significant rebound.
Watch the reaction near $3,920โ$3,880 โ
thatโs where the next meaningful decision for gold may emerge.
๐ MMFLOW TRADING Insight:
โSmart money doesnโt chase candles โ it waits for liquidity to shift.โ
Trade ideas
XAUUSD Best level to sell is this.Gold (XAUUSD) has turned bearish, at least on the short-term, as it broke below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in a month and is headed for its 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Having made a Double Top at the start of the downtrend, the pattern that seems to be emerging is a Channel Down, with the last such formation seen in April - May.
So far the 4H RSI sequences between the two patterns are identical, so we expect a rebound now, which can give us the most optimal level to short again near the top of the Channel Down.
A break above 0.786 invalidates this, but as long as it holds, our Target will be the -0.236 Fibonacci extension at 3920 just like on May 15, which also hit its 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
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Bearish Pennant Chart Pattern Breakout TargetsDear traders,
The long awaited pullback has finally arrived. But it is to be traded with caution. As the market leaves traders with questions if the trend has changed short term or it's just another pullback to gather liquidity.
The bullish price action we saw on Gold gives a clear answer to this question. Carefully looking at the charts we can observe that gold maintained a faithful and upright uptrend: As it never broke a higher low. And now it has and it is not pushing back up, which is usually, hereby a declaration of the arrivals of the merciless bears.
My prediction of the price movement is simply a result of my experience of the market movement.
Also, an advise for all. if you want to short in the triangle, ensure to use the Supply zones or Bearish Order Blocks as other PD arrays are being ignored, this is visible in the current price action.
Have a fruitful week and don't forget to protect your capital guys!
Gold prices could fall below $4,000 today.Gold prices could fall below $4,000 today.
Progress in US-China trade negotiations has eased tensions between the two major economies, weakening gold's safe-haven appeal.
Investors are awaiting the results of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting (expected to be released around October 30th), which will determine the future direction of interest rates.
If the Fed sends a clear signal of a rate cut, gold prices are expected to resume their upward trend.
Key Technical Analysis: If gold prices fall below the $4,000 mark,
further downward adjustments are possible. In the short term, focus on support around $4,000.
Day Trading Strategy:
Resistance: 4060-4080
Support: 4000-4020
-----------------------------------
Short Sell Level: 4040-4050
Stop Loss: 4070
Target: 4000-3900-3800
The above is today's trading strategy.
Will gold continue to fall on October 28?
I. Market Review and Fundamental Analysis
Gold successfully broke below the key psychological level of $4,000 during the U.S. trading session, declining continuously from the intraday high of $4,097 in the Asian and European sessions to a low near $3,971. The market is currently influenced by the rebound in U.S. bond yields (back above 4%), reflecting adjustments in investor expectations for a Fed rate cut and a temporary outflow of safe-haven funds from the gold market. The U.S. dollar index fell slightly by 0.14% during the day, but gold remains under pressure, with overall bearish momentum dominating.
II. Technical Analysis
Trend Structure:
The 4-hour chart indicates further downside potential for gold, with the $4,000 level now acting as a key resistance. A break above the $4,010 resistance level is required to open the upward channel, though the probability of an upward move remains low in the short term.
Key support below is located in the $3,945-$3,950 range. If this level holds, gold may transition into range-bound consolidation.
Short-Term Signals:
The 1-hour chart shows a "double top" pattern with a break below the neckline, and the moving average system is in a bearish alignment, indicating continued short-term downward momentum.
After breaking below the $4,004 support during the U.S. session, this level has now turned into resistance. Any rebound below this level can be seen as an opportunity to sell on rallies.
III. Trading Strategy and Approach
Main Approach: Focus on selling on rallies, with buying on dips as a secondary strategy, while strictly managing risks.
Resistance Levels: $4,010-$4,020
Support Levels: $3,945-$3,950
Specific Strategies:
Short Strategy (Sell):
Entry: Sell in batches when gold rebounds to the $4,010-$4,020 range.
Stop Loss: $4,025-$4,030
Target: $3,960-$3,950, with a further target of $3,945 if broken.
Long Strategy (Buy):
Entry: Buy lightly (position โค 20%) when gold pulls back to the $3,945-$3,950 range.
Stop Loss: $3,935-$3,940
Target: $3,980-$4,000, with a further target of $4,010 if broken.
IV. Risk Warning
Market volatility has intensified, and it is essential to strictly control position sizes (recommended total position โค 30%).
Always set stop losses and avoid holding losing positions. Focus on the dynamic impact of U.S. bond yields and the U.S. dollar index on gold.
Note: If the price quickly breaks below the $3,945 support, pause the long strategy and monitor the support performance in the $3,920-$3,930 range before adjusting the strategy.
Gold Buy Setup from 3980 โ Targeting Upside ReversalDescription:
Gold has reached a key support zone near 3980, showing early signs of accumulation and a potential bullish reversal.
๐ Iโm looking to buy from 3980, with confirmation from price action and trend momentum.
Targets: 4020 / 4050 / 4085
Stop loss below: 3965
Trading style: short-term to swing.
Always manage risk accordingly.
COINBASE:BTCUSD COMEX:GC1! COMEX_MINI:SIL1! OANDA:XAUEUR
Up again for goldHi traders,
Last week gold made a correction up and another downmove for the finish of a bigger correction wave 4 (orange). After that price consolidated.
So next week we could see the next impulsive wave up.
Let's see what price does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down on a lower timeframe and a change in orderflow to bullish to trade longs.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
But I react and trade on what I see in the chart, not what I've predicted or expect.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
GOLD (Xauusd) is going DOWN! great sell tradeAs you can see GOLD - Xauusd is in a clear downtrend. The red lines drawn show a downward channel which indicate that GOLD is now moving to the downside... Secondly, Gold has broken a powerful support level (the upper green line)! It is now very likely to head down to the lower green line (next support level). Great time to sell!
XAUUSD: Bullish Reversal Setup From Triangle SupportHello everyone, here is my breakdown of the current Gold setup.
Market Analysis
Gold (XAUUSD) continues to trade within a larger bullish market structure, maintaining higher lows above its key ascending Trend Line. After a strong impulsive rally that pushed the price above the 4,200 resistance, the market faced rejection near the top of the Range and entered a corrective phase. This correction evolved into a triangle pattern, with price now testing the Triangle Support Line, aligning closely with the horizontal Support area around 4,020 โ 4,000 โ a historically important demand zone.
Currently, the price is consolidating near the lower boundary of this structure, showing early signs of stabilization. This region also coincides with the previous breakout point, adding further confluence for potential buyer interest.
My Scenario & Strategy
I expect the price to hold above the Triangle Support Line and form a bullish reversal structure, signaling that buyers are once again defending this level. A confirmed breakout above the Triangle Resistance Line would indicate renewed bullish momentum and a potential continuation of the overall uptrend.
My primary target zone lies around 4,215, where previous resistance and the upper range boundary converge. However, if the support near 4,000 fails to hold, it could trigger a deeper correction toward 3,950, where the next demand zone is located. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward opportunity for traders anticipating a rebound from a major technical confluence zone.
That's the setup I'm tracking. Thank you for your attention, and always manage your risk.
Gold price analysis on March 24XAUUSD โ Bears Still in Control
Gold is trading sideways around the key resistance zone of 4145, indicating a strong struggle between buyers and sellers. However, the price has been repeatedly rejected at this zone, indicating that the bearish pressure is still dominant.
If the current trend is maintained, the support zone of 3946 will be the next potential target for the sellers. Only when the price clearly breaks above 4145, the current bearish structure can be broken and the new buying trend is confirmed.
๐ Trading Strategy:
SELL now at 4110
Target: 4022 โ 3946
BUY setup: When the price breaks decisively above 4145
Gold Elliott Wave Analysis โ Potential Wave (4) Completion ZoneGold (XAU/USD) on the daily chart appears to be completing a classic Elliott Wave 5-wave impulse structure. After a strong rally into the wave (3) high, price is currently retracing toward the projected wave (4) correction zone.
The highlighted support area aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels:
0.5 retracement: around $3,845
0.618 retracement: around $3,718
This region also coincides with the lower boundary of the ascending channel, adding confluence for potential bullish reversal.
If wave (4) finds support within this zone and maintains structure, a new impulsive rally toward wave (5) could begin โ targeting the upper trendline resistance near $4,500โ$4,600.
LiamTrading - XAUUSD: SCENARIO BEFORE FOMC LiamTrading - XAUUSD: SCENARIO BEFORE FOMC - $3840 Level Awaits Bottom Fishing Reaction Wave
Hello traders community,
The Gold market is showing a strong and sustainable downtrend. We are witnessing a crash after prices broke through key support zones. With the upcoming FOMC event, our strategy is to seek Buy opportunities at deep liquidity zones and continue Selling when prices recover to retest the broken trend.
๐ฐ MACRO ANALYSIS & CASH FLOW CONTEXT
Gold is currently under dual pressure:
Downward Pressure ๐ด: Optimism about the US-China trade progress has significantly weakened the demand for Gold, a safe-haven commodity. Spot Gold prices have fallen below $3950, hitting a three-week low, down about 0.78% on the day (28/10).
Short-term Support ๐ข: Bets on the possibility of a Fed rate cut continue to weaken the US Dollar (USD), which is the only factor that could potentially support this precious metal.
Conclusion: This tug-of-war makes it difficult to determine the bottom. The bearish scenario remains the top priority.
๐ TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: THE DOWNWAVE CONTINUES
Based on the H4 chart (image_5fa7fa.png):
Current Trend: The price has successfully broken through the key liquidity support zone near $3950 and is continuing its downtrend.
Current Fibonacci Level: The price is touching and reacting at the 1.618 Fibonacci zone (around $3950).
Next Level: The next level Gold is targeting will be the 2.618 Fibonacci zone (around $3840), which is a large liquidity area expected to see a strong reaction.
Main Strategy: We focus on two scenarios: Bottom fishing reaction at 3840 and continuing to Sell when the price recovers.
๐ฏ DETAILED TRADING PLAN (ACTION PLAN)
We have two detailed scenarios based on the current price level:
๐ข BUY Reversal Scenario
We wait for the price to hit the deep liquidity bottom zone of 3840 to execute a buy order with the expectation of a technical recovery.
Entry Zone: 3840
Stop Loss (SL): 3832 (tight SL)
Take Profit Targets (TP): TP1: $3872 | TP2: $3898 | TP3: $3925 | TP4: $3950
๐ด SELL Retest Scenario
If Gold recovers without breaking the downtrend structure:
Entry Zone: Watch for a Sell retest at $4091
Stop Loss (SL): $4099
Take Profit Targets (TP): TP1: $4065 | TP2: $4033 | TP3: $4004 | TP4: $3965
SUMMARY & DISCIPLINE (Steven's Note)
Gold is in a strong fall ahead of the FOMC, with significant volatility expected. Capturing deep Fibonacci and Liquidity zones is key.
Note: Always adhere to the set Stop Loss. Capital management is the number one priority, risking only 1-2% of the account per trade.
Wishing traders a successful and disciplined new trading week!
GOLD XAU/USD: Wave ((1)) Near Completion - Wave 2 Zigzag vs Flat GOLD: WAVE ((1)) COMPLETE - WHAT'S NEXT?
Wave ((1)) nearly finished at ~$3,989. Next: Wave ((2)) correction
to the $4,250 area. But which pattern?
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
ZIGZAG (60% Probability) Pattern: A-B-C (sharp, V-shaped)
โข Wave (A): Sharp 1-2-3-4-5 impulse
โข Wave (B): Brief recovery (~30-40% of wave A)
โข Wave (C): Sharp impulse (~equal to A or 1.618x A)
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
FLAT (40% Probability) Pattern: A-B-C (sideways consolidation)
โข Wave (A): Moderate move
โข Wave (B): Recovery that reclaims wave A (~80-120% of A)
โข Wave (C): Normally sharp 1-2-3-4-5 impulse (~50-120% of A)
If price retraces 100% of wave 1 (above $3,956) Structure INVALID
MY BIAS: ZIGZAG
Wave 1 was powerful โ Sharp corrections follow
Support: $3,956 (invalidation level)
Resistance: $4,150 - $4,200 - $4,250
IMPORTANT ELLIOTT WAVE RULES FOR WAVE 2:
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
โ Wave 2 CANNOT retrace more than 100% of wave 1 (invalidation rule)
โ Wave 2 CANNOT be a triangle (only B and (iv) can be triangles)
โ Wave 2 CANNOT be a combination beginning with a zigzag
(combinations only if starting with a flat)
These rules help us eliminate possibilities and confirm structure.
Gold -Alternative TradeMy preferred entry level didnโt materialize yet may not, so itโs time to create an alternative tactic.
Main idea is to trade pennant pattern breakout. The take-profit target remains the same, but both the entry and stop levels are lower, reducing the risk-reward ratio from 3.98 to 2.85. This setup carries higher risk.
I will trade whichever pending order will be hit first and cancel the other one.
Original idea:
XAUUSD Daily Outlook โ Bearish Trend Still IntactGold (XAUUSD) has been moving in a clear bearish trend for the last two weeks, showing consistent lower highs and lower lows. Despite short-term pullbacks, the market continues to respect the downward structure as sellers remain in control.
The 4000/4020 level is acting as a strong resistance zone, and price rejection from this area confirms continuation toward 3895. Momentum and volume both support further downside movement.
KEY POINTS:
CURRENT PRICE: 3980
TARGET: LEVEL : 3935
TARGET LEVEL : 3895
RESISTANCE : 4000/ 4020
Gold Buy at 4080 and sell at 4240Now gold in consolidation mode and trying to book profits and make the retail traders into the trap so for now we need to be patience and buy at 4080 and close at 4240, after the fed interest cut gold will come down so sell at 4240 and wait for long selling till 3966. This method is Wd Gann inspiration i made and am still learning, this one sharing for study purpose so trade with your own analysis.
Will gold fall below 3900 again on October 29?
Current Market Characterization: Volatile with a bearish bias. Gold prices have broken below the key psychological level of $4,000, indicating short-term technical weakness. The market is currently caught between long-term bullish fundamentals and short-term factors such as easing geopolitical risks and improved risk appetite. Ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, volatile and range-bound trading is likely to persist.
I. Core Market Logic
Short-Term Bearish Factors:
Technical Selling Pressure: Last weekโs significant sell-off has led to further weakness in technical indicators.
Improved Risk Appetite: Signs of easing geopolitical tensions (e.g., trade negotiations) have reduced goldโs appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Break of Key Support: The loss of the $4,000 level (coinciding with the long-term uptrend line) has intensified bearish sentiment.
Medium- to Long-Term Supporting Factors:
Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The market has almost fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut in October, with another cut expected in December. This limits the downside for gold prices in the long run.
II. Key Price Levels
Bullish Defense Line: $4,020
If gold fails to reclaim and stabilize above this level, the short-term bearish trend is likely to continue.
Core Resistance Zone: $3,970 - $3,990
This area, formed by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, serves as a strong short-term resistance zone and an ideal entry point for short positions.
Support Zone: $3,880 - $3,890
This is the current near-term key support band. If gold stabilizes here, a technical rebound may occur.
Breakdown Target:
If the $3,880 - $3,890 support band is decisively broken, bears will likely test lower support levels.
III. Intraday Trading Strategy
Primary Approach: Prefer selling on rallies, with light long positions at key support levels as a secondary strategy.
Short Strategy (Primary):
Entry Timing: Wait for gold to rebound to the $3,970 - $3,990 resistance zone and show signs of rejection before entering short positions.
Profit Target: Initial target at the $3,900 - $3,910 support band. Secondary target at $3,870 - $3,880.
Stop Loss: Place above $4,000.
Long Strategy (Secondary):
Entry Timing: If gold retraces to the $3,880 - $3,890 support band and shows signs of stabilization or reversal on shorter timeframes (e.g., 1-hour/4-hour charts), consider entering light long positions.
Profit Target: Aim for $3,950 - $3,970.
Stop Loss: Place below $3,870.
IV. Trading Discipline and Risk Warnings
Follow the Trend: As long as the price remains below $4,020, the overall strategy should favor selling on rallies rather than attempting to buy the dip against the trend.
Exercise Patience: Only execute trades when prices approach key resistance or support levels. Avoid impulsive trading in intermediate ranges and refrain from chasing the market.
Strict Risk Management: Market sensitivity is heightened ahead of the Fed meeting. Always adhere to stop-loss orders to mitigate risks from unexpected fluctuations.
GOLD (XAUUSD) | Smart Money Buy Setup from Demand Zone ๐ Description:
Gold is showing a potential reversal structure from the lower demand zone after a liquidity grab near $3,962.
The price is now reacting bullishly from the mitigation block and aiming toward the supply zone at $3,984โ$4,019.
Trade Plan:
Entry: From $3,972โ$3,975 demand zone (after liquidity sweep)
Stop-Loss: Below $3,962 (structure invalidation)
Target: $4,019 (supply zone / PDH area)
Bias: Bullish โ expecting continuation toward previous highs
R:R: ~1:3 setup
If price cleanly breaks above $3,984, expect further continuation to $4,029 (Previous Day High).
A failure to hold above $3,962 would invalidate this bullish setup.






















