Gold : Neutral Between 3,640–3,657, Breakout to DecideGold – Overview
Gold hit a fresh record high at $3,659 on Tuesday, supported by weak U.S. jobs data and growing bets on Fed rate cuts. Traders now await key U.S. inflation releases – PPI on Wednesday and CPI on Thursday – which could drive the next major move.
📊 If inflation comes in hotter than expected, gold risks a sharp correction.
📊 If inflation is weaker, expectations for a 50 bps Fed rate cut could lift gold further.
Technical Outlook:
🔻 While below 3,657, price may correct toward 3,640. A 15M close below 3,640 would extend the decline to 3,629.
🔺 Stability above 3,657 on a 15M close would support further upside toward 3,665 → 3,683.
Key Levels:
Pivot: 3,657
Support: 3,640 – 3,629 – 3,612
Resistance: 3,665 – 3,683
previous idea:
GOLDCFD trade ideas
GOLD PREMIUM SETUP CHECKOUT NOW📉 GOLD TRADE SETUP – CHECK NOW
🔑 Potential Entry Zone: 3640 – 3630
❌ Stop Loss (Invalidation Level): 3620
🎯 Target Levels:
✔️ TP1 – 3680
✔️ TP2 – 3690
✔️ TP3 – 3700
💡 This is my personal market outlook based on chart structure & price action. Always apply proper risk management.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Content is shared for educational and informational purposes only.
Gold: Elliott Wave Projection.Here’s the updated market outlook:
Gold's strong bullish momentum has ended, after printing a new all-time high at 3674.650, followed by a strong rejection.
On the M15 chart, the trend has shifted into a confirmed downtrend. Our stance today remains bearish, with attention solely on short opportunities. A move above 3628 could open the door for further upside, while a breakdown below this level may drive price toward the 3540 region.
The primary zone of interest for a potential short entry lies around the 3650 M15 supply area. We plan to wait for price to retrace into this zone and will only execute upon receiving clear confirmation. Discipline and patience are crucial—no trades will be placed without a validated setup.
XAU OUTLOOK TODAYHey Guys, This is what I see today for ASIAN/LONDON Sessions.
XAUUSD 15M Analysis(9th September 2025)
BUY/SELL SCENARIOS:
BUYS:
1)Body Candle Close above the 3638.11 level.
2)Retest the 15m Bullish CHoCH at the 3638.11 level.
3)Create a 3/5m Bullish Engulfing Candle to capitalize on BUYS towards the 3675.00 level.
SELLS:
1)Body candle close below the 36,28,.44 level.
2) Retest the 15m Bearish CHoCH al the 3628.44 level.
3)Create a 3/5m Bearish Engulfing candle to capitalize on SELLS towards the 3600.00 level.
Trade smart, Trade Safe. Cheers!
Gold - Buy or Sell this week??? (08-12/09)With the sustained accumulation over the past five months, gold has experienced a strong breakout from the $3,300 sideways range and reached a new all-time high around $3,600. The upward trend is clearly established. Therefore, we can consider buying and selling at the following price levels:
>>> SELL ZONE: 3684 - 3679
SL: 3689
TP: 3618 - 3596 - 3578 - 3565 - 3515
>>> BUY ZONE: 3560 - 3570
SL: 3550
TP: 3618 - 3678
Have a good day. Good luck buddies! :)
“Gold Shines Bright | Bullish Momentum Targeting $3,700🔎 Technical Analysis – XAU/USD (1H Chart)
Trend: Strong bullish trend confirmed, with price making higher highs and higher lows.
Buy Zone: Around 3,590 – 3,600 USD, where buyers stepped in aggressively.
Short-Term Target 🎯: 3,650 – 3,700 USD (already highlighted on chart).
Key Support Levels:
3,561 USD (near-term support)
3,490 USD (major support, bullish structure invalidation if broken)
📌 Outlook: As long as price holds above the buy zone, momentum favors bulls with potential continuation toward 3,700+ USD.
🌍 Fundamental Drivers for Gold Bullishness ✨
Federal Reserve Rate Cuts Expectations 🏦⬇️ – If the Fed signals easing or holds a dovish stance, real yields fall → Gold strengthens.
Weakening US Dollar (DXY) 💵📉 – A softer dollar makes gold more attractive to global investors.
Geopolitical Risks 🌍⚠️ – Rising global tensions increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Central Bank Demand 🏦🔒 – Many central banks are adding gold reserves to hedge against currency risks.
Inflation Hedge 📊🔥 – Gold remains attractive when inflationary pressures stay elevated.
XAU/USD 4HTechnical Analysis Rising Channel with strong bullish The price action shows:
A parabolic uptrend inside a rising channel (or pitchfork structure).
Recent breakout attempt toward the upper band.
Fibonacci retracements drawn for pullback projections.
This looks like a rising channel / ascending channel with parabolic acceleration.
---
🔹 Targets
From your chart:
Immediate target shown is around 3700 USD (upper channel resistance).
If bullish momentum continues, extension targets are 3750 – 3800 USD.
---
🔹 Stop Loss
A good protective stop is below the mid-channel line, around 3400 – 3450 USD.
A tighter stop could be just under the last breakout zone: 3550 – 3580 USD (aggressive).
---
🔹 Support Levels
1. 3550 – 3580 USD → short-term support.
2. 3450 – 3480 USD → mid support (channel median + Fib zone).
3. 3300 – 3350 USD → strong support (Fib + previous base).
---
🔹 Resistance Levels
1. 3700 – 3720 USD (current key resistance).
2. 3800 USD (upper channel / Fib extension).
3. 4000 USD psychological level (long-term projection).
---
✅ Suggested Trading Plan (swing perspective):
Entry: On dips near 3550–3600 USD or breakout above 3700 USD.
Target: 3720 → 3800 USD.
Stop Loss: Below 3450 USD (swing safe) or 3580 USD (tight).
Is gold at its peak?Gold has staged a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" move. The U.S. nonfarm payrolls data was bullish for gold, yet gold plummeted after the data release. There’s no need for confusion—it’s not as you might think, that bullish data means the price rises and bearish data means it falls. If it were that simple, everyone would be making money.
Data and fundamentals are reflected in prices, but such reflections can be ahead of time, lagging, exceeding expectations, or falling short of expectations. Judging which scenario it is depends solely on the historical database one has accumulated and long-term real-trading experience.
Today, I added to my gold positions twice and am still holding them. Even if the price falls further, my profits won’t decrease. This is because I believe today’s decline is most likely a result of some profit-taking traders closing their positions on the opportunity—after all, there have been no major bearish factors in the fundamentals yet. Whether a daily-level correction will occur still requires further observation. After all, since the rally started on August 20, there has been no real daily-level correction except for the sharp intraday pullback on September 4, and a correction would actually make the trend healthier.
The period from now to next week is a critical short-term window for gold. I will closely track and analyze the market every day. If you lose your direction in such a market, you can follow me or leave me a message.
XAU/USD OUTLOOK TODAY 12-09-25
XAUUSD 15M Analysis
BUY/SELL SCENARIOS:
BUYS:
1)Body Candle Close above the 3638.30 level.
2) Retest the 15m Bullish CHoCH at the 3638.30 level.
3)Create a 3/5m Bullish Engulfing Candle to capitalize on BUYS towards the 3657.65 level.
SELLS:
1)Body candle close below the 3630.52 level.
2)Retest the 15m Bearish CHoCH at the 3630.52 level.
3)Create a 3/5m Bearish Engulfing candle to capitalize on SELLS towards the 3613.00 level.
liquidity sweepA liquidity sweep is a term used in financial markets and trading to describe a situation where a large market order moves through multiple price levels, quickly consuming available liquidity in the order book. This can happen in both directions—up (buy-side sweep) or down (sell-side sweep).
🔍 Definition:
A liquidity sweep occurs when a market participant aggressively executes a large order that "sweeps" through the order book, taking out multiple levels of bid or ask prices in quick succession.
XAUUSD 1H - Breakout or Rejection SetupStructure | Trend | Key Reaction Zones
Gold is consolidating between the demand zone (3,620-3,636) and breakout zone (3,645-3,658). Lower highs show bearish pressure, but buyers are holding demand, creating a decision point.
Market Overview
Price action suggests a compression phase. If 3,640-3,645 breaks with bullish momentum, the market can rally strongly. On the other hand, rejection here may send gold back to the demand zone.
Key Scenarios
Bullish Case
(above 3,645-3,658)
Target 1: 3,660
• Target 2: 3,674
•* Target 3: 3,697
X Bearish Case
• Target 1: 3,620
Target 2: 3
3,615
* Target 3: 3,605
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance
: 3,645-3,658 / 3,674
Support
: 3,620 / 3,613
+
Disclaimer: For educational purposes only.
Not financial advice.
GOLD TRADE SETUP CHECK NOW📉 GOLD TRADE SET-UP (XAUUSD)
Potential Entry Zone: 3646 – 3450
Invalidation Level (Stop Loss): 3655
Target Zones (TPs):
✔️ TP1 – 3,643
✔️ TP2 – 3,635
✔️ TP3 – 3,613 open
💡 This is just my personal view based on chart structure & price action. Always manage risk properly.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. For educational and informational purposes only.
#GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #PriceAction #TradeIdea
SMART MONEY CONCEPT (SMC)📊 Breakdown
1. Confirmed Retest
• Price left the distribution zone and came back to test the support zone.
• This acts as a retest, showing buyers are still in control.
2. Fake Out + Rejection
• Before moving higher, liquidity was taken with a fake out.
• The rejection at support confirms bullish continuation.
3. Bullish Structure
• Previous BOS and ChoCh confirm the bullish order flow.
• Demand is defended → institutions are holding the upside momentum.
4. Entry & Target
• Entry after retracement confirmation (clear rejection at support).
• Target: new Higher High (HH) at 3,675.
🔑 Lesson: Waiting for the retest prevents fake entries and gives clean setups with better risk-to-reward. GOOD LUCK TRADERS ;)
CPI data is confusing,gold is fluctuating in a bearish directionGold Technical Analysis: Looking back at the recent trend, gold surged and then retreated on Tuesday, forming a shooting star pattern. However, the decline did not continue on Wednesday, indicating that the pullback was merely a one-off adjustment and lacks sustainability. It is a normal correction after a significant rally. Even if the market peaks, it will not be so simple. It will at least undergo a process of "high-level fluctuations turning bearish" or "second upward attack to lure more investors and then decline." In the short term, the rebound will continue to fluctuate, and it is unlikely to see significant rises or falls in a short period of time. Looking at the daily gold chart, the daily gold line has slowed down slightly. After continuous large volume, the daily line has turned into a small Yinxing candlestick pattern for consolidation. There is a need for a short-term pullback. Considering the short-term chart, the second high-point test failed to break through the previous high, the previous continuous large volume without a pullback, and the pressure from the second upward test. If there is no new high in the short term, there will be a partial correction around 3675-3657. The pattern will determine whether it is a deep pullback or a sideways consolidation.
Judging from the 4-hour gold chart, yesterday's gold price failed to achieve results in its attempt to rise again. There are signs of a downward correction. The 4-hour chart lost the middle track, breaking the unilateral upward momentum. At the same time, there is a need to further retrace to the lower track. Combined with the second high in the hourly chart near 3657, the second pressure turned into a decline. The strong market is to retrace and then break the high. Once the breaking power is stopped, it will go into a shock correction. Overall, today's short-term gold operation strategy recommends shorting on rebounds as the main strategy, and buying on pullbacks as the auxiliary strategy. The short-term focus on the upper side is the 3640-3650 resistance line, and the short-term focus on the lower side is the 3610-3600 support line.
Will gold fall below 3,600 this week?
I. Core Viewpoint
The current overall assessment of gold is: a short-term technical correction, entering a period of consolidation after a sharp rise. We recommend prioritizing shorting on rallies, with a light position at key support levels to try to capitalize on a rebound.
II. Multi-Dimensional In-Depth Analysis
1. News Analysis (Fundamentals)
Current Situation: The text indicates that gold prices are experiencing a "mild decline" and are in a "consolidation" phase.
Underlying Implications: "Consolidation" means that in the absence of new major news (such as unexpectedly strong US economic data, clear Federal Reserve policy signals, or major geopolitical conflicts), the market is digesting previous gains, and bullish and bearish forces are temporarily balanced. The current market is primarily driven by technical factors.
2. Technical Analysis (Core)
a) Trend Positioning:
The analysis clearly indicates that the previous rally, which saw "continuously high volume," has now entered a "normal correction" phase. This positioning forms the basis for all subsequent judgments—that the current situation is a pullback within an upward trend, not a complete reversal.
b) Key Technical Signals:
"Second High Test Failed" (Double Top Formation): This is the most core bearish technical signal. The price failed to break through the previous highs in two attempts (once to 3674 and once to 3657), forming a partial double top structure, indicating that bullish momentum is fading and bears are beginning to apply pressure.
"Losing the 4-Hour Middle Band": In swing trading, the middle band of the Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart, or the MA20 moving average, is a key dividing line between bulls and bears. A break below this level signals the end of a short-term unilateral uptrend and a shift to market volatility or a correction.
K-line pattern: "Shooting Star" + "Small Yin Star": The daily chart shows a series of "Shooting Stars" (rising and then falling, indicating a peak) and "Falling Small Doji" (the market is hesitant), which together reinforce the expectation that the upward momentum is slowing down and a correction is needed.
c) Market Path Forecast:
The analysis suggests two possible peaking scenarios, indicating a very low probability of a direct "crash" at this point:
High-Level Oscillation Turns to Bearish: The price fluctuates repeatedly at the current level, forming a top platform before breaking down.
Second Upward Rally to Lure Buyers, Then Fall: The price rises again to create a false high (to lure in retail investors), attracting buying, before quickly reversing and falling.
This suggests that traders should not blindly chase short positions, but should wait for a rebound before intervening.
3. Trading Strategy and Key Points
Main Strategy: Sell at the rebound high and go short
Logic: Following the main direction of the "correction" trend, enter the market when the price rebounds to the resistance area, which offers a better profit-loss ratio.
Ideal Entry Area: 3643-3653, especially near the previous high of 3657.
Stop-Loss: It should be set above key resistance levels (such as 3660 or 3670) to prevent false breakouts.
Secondary Strategy: Buy on Pullbacks
Logic: Given that the overall trend remains a correction within an uptrend, prices may find buying support at strong support levels.
Ideal Entry Area: 3610-3600.
Stop-Loss: Must be set below the support level (e.g., below 3590). Once a break below this level is established, a stop-loss must be decisively implemented, as this indicates potential downside potential.
III. Comprehensive Recommendations and Risk Warnings
Trend Following: Current analysis clearly favors a short-term pullback, so a "short on rebound" trading strategy should be prioritized.
Risk Control is Paramount:
Must Set a Stop-Loss: Whether long or short, a stop-loss must be planned in advance; it is the lifeblood of trading.
Maintain a Light Position: During a volatile pullback, prices fluctuate frequently. Light positions allow you to maintain a better mindset for holding positions.
Focus on breakthroughs: Pay close attention to the breakthrough of the 3610-3600 support band and the 3643-3653 resistance band. A valid breakthrough of either side (especially a closing price breakthrough) will guide the next short-term direction of gold.
GOLD Technical & Order Flow AnalysisOur analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis.
Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you.
Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
Gold | 30min Head and Shoulders | GTradingMethodHello Traders!
There is a potential head and shoulders in the making.
🧐 Market Overview:
One of the key indicators I watch when trading double tops is negative RSI divergence. On the Gold chart, price has been printing higher highs while RSI has been putting in lower highs — a classic sign of weakening buying momentum.
It’s important to note: negative RSI divergence does not guarantee a correction. It’s simply one element within our robust trading system that helps us build higher-probability setups.
📊 Trade Plan:
Risk/Reward: 3.5
Entry: 3655.1
Stop Loss: 3664.7
Take Profit 1 (50%): 3624
Take Profit 2 (50%): 3614
💡 GTradingMethod Tip:
Always remember — divergence is a signal, not a certainty. Use it in confluence with structure, patterns, and risk management for the best results.
🙏 Thanks for checking out my post!
Make sure to follow me to catch the next idea and please share your thoughts — do you think this head and shoulders will play out, or is Gold still too strong?
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. This content is to track my trading journey and for educational purposes only.
Gold Spikes After CPI but Faces Profit-Taking Pressure📊 Market Move:
Right after the CPI release, gold surged from $3613 to $3643, but profit-taking quickly dragged prices back to around $3635.
📈 Technical Analysis:
🔺 Resistance: 3645 – 3650
🔻 Support: 3626 – 3620
📉 Short-term EMA still points upward, suggesting the uptrend remains intact, though momentum has weakened after the spike.
🧐 Outlook:
Gold is undergoing a technical pullback after the sharp rally; the market needs further H1/H4 candle confirmation to see if the bullish move toward 3650+ continues.
🎯 Trading Strategy:
o Wait for a retest of 3626–3620; if reversal candles appear, consider a Buy following the trend.
o If price breaks below 3620, risk opens for a deeper drop toward 3610–3605.
Cyclic Patterns Point to 600-Pip Downside in GoldUnfortunately, gold failed to reach the expected 3620 target area during the pullback. It only touched around 3628 in the early morning hours before rebounding again. During this period, because I saw that gold could not fall below 3628, and even could not fall below 3630 at one point, I promptly closed all short positions near 3630. Although the two transactions suffered losses due to the slightly lower entry price, because we added short positions near 3636 and 3646, the overall profit was still $10K.
Gold has now rebounded again and continued its upward trend to around 3657, continuing its upward trend. However, aside from opportunities to enter the long position in the 3630-3628 area, there are virtually no other good long entry opportunities. Judging from the current trend, gold still has the potential to continue to rise to around 3665, but since I missed the opportunity to enter the long position at 3630-3628, I will never choose to chase the rise of gold now.
Although the current uptrend is strong, even if you short gold, there are always opportunities to exit safely and profit during the day. Therefore, I still plan to try to short gold in the 3655-3665 area. Of course, keep my tips from yesterday in mind when shorting. When you first try shorting gold today, try to use a small lot size. When adding positions, you can appropriately increase the number of trading lots to increase the average price and increase profit margins. From a shorting perspective, it is relatively safer!
At present, I will pay close attention to the short-term support area of 3640-3630, followed by the area of 3610-3600. Don’t subjectively think that gold will not pull back to the 3610-3600 area, because in the previous band, after gold experienced three 200pips fluctuation retracements, the fourth retracement reached 660pips; and now gold has experienced three 200pips fluctuation retracements again. If it follows the cycle, gold may usher in another retracement of about 600pips, that is, reaching the 3610-3600 area.
What you do before a trade mattersTo succeed in trading, you need to place yourself in an optimal state as often as possible. It’s not just about the trade itself – it’s about what you do before. Your preparation is what determines how stable and effective you’ll be when it truly counts.
Of course, we can make profits even when we’re not at our best. But the risk is that we start acting in ways that don’t align with our strategy, our process, or our optimal performance. And that builds shaky foundations. For long-term success, you need something stronger.
Here are a few key things to focus on before you enter a trade:
🔋 Recharge your batteries
Trading demands energy and presence. Make sure you’ve filled up your resources before the market opens. Did you get enough sleep? Have you moved your body, worked out, or gotten fresh air? Are you taking breaks to let your brain recover? The more rested and energized you are, the sharper your decisions will be.
⏰ Decide WHEN to trade
Be honest with yourself – when do you perform at your best? Are you sharpest in the morning, or do you focus better later in the day? Do you notice yourself taking risky trades in the evening? Observe your own patterns and schedule your trading during the hours when you’re at your peak.
🚪 Shut out the noise
When you’re in a trade, your full attention needs to be there. Look at what’s stealing your focus. Maybe you should avoid reading chats or forums right before taking action. Do you have an environment where you can sit undisturbed and fully focused? Create the conditions for presence.
🧠 Got other things on your mind? Skip trading
Life always seeps into trading. If something has happened – maybe worry, conflict, or emotional turbulence – it will follow you to the screen. In those moments, it’s often wiser to pause, take care of what’s going on, and return to trading when you feel stable and clear.
Creating an optimal state means viewing trading as a whole – something that spans the entire day, not just the moments you click buy or sell. How you take care of yourself beforehand directly impacts your endurance, focus, and emotional balance.
💡 Pro Tip:
Start observing when you perform at your best. Is it morning or afternoon? Certain days of the week? Collect data on what truly makes a difference – then try to prioritize trading during those times.
Happy compassionate trading! 💙
/ Tina the Trading Psychologist
Gold 1H – Demand Sweep Before Premium ExpansionGold on the 1H timeframe is consolidating near 3,644 after multiple ChoCHs, showing engineered liquidity grabs. Price has defined clear demand footprints at 3,620 and deeper at 3,593, while premium supply is stacked near 3,673–3,680. This structure suggests a possible retracement into discount zones before expansion toward premium liquidity.
________________________________________
📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔼 Buy Zone 3,620 – 3,618 (SL 3,613): Fresh demand block aligned with bullish order flow.
• 🔼 Buy Zone 3,593 – 3,591 (SL 3,596): Deeper liquidity sweep, high R:R demand area.
• 🔽 Sell Zone 3,673 – 3,671 (SL 3,680): Premium supply pocket for short-term liquidity grabs.
________________________________________
📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔺 Buy Setup – Shallow Demand Reaction
• Entry: 3,620 – 3,618
• Stop Loss: 3,613
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,635
TP2: 3,650
TP3: 3,665+
👉 Expect a bounce from shallow demand before retesting premium zones.
🔺 Buy Setup – Deeper Liquidity Sweep
• Entry: 3,593 – 3,591
• Stop Loss: 3,596
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,610
TP2: 3,625
TP3: 3,645+
👉 Ideal entry for swing traders seeking higher R:R after liquidity engineering.
🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Rejection
• Entry: 3,673 – 3,671
• Stop Loss: 3,680
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,660
TP2: 3,650
TP3: 3,635
👉 Scalp opportunity at premium supply; bias remains bullish so manage risk tightly.
________________________________________
🔑 Strategy Note
Bias remains bullish, but smart money may engineer a dip into 3,620 or deeper 3,593 demand before expansion. Cleaner setups favor buying dips; shorts from 3,673 are counter-trend scalp plays only.