XAUUSD - MARKET CONTEXT I SEP/29/2025-After yesterday’s PCE session, gold continues to maintain its bullish structure and is currently trading around 3816.
-Defensive flows remain in place as the USD has yet to show a strong recovery.
-On the H1/H4 chart, gold is still in a clear uptrend, consistently forming Higher Lows.
🔎 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
📊PRICE STRUCTURE
Main trend: Bullish
Key support zones:
3795 – 3800 (Liquidity + Old High zone) → critical retest zone if price pulls back.
3780 – 3785 (PoC zone) → confluence with the rising trendline.
Resistance zone:
3828 – 3830 (Liquidity zone & short-term resistance).
If broken, the next target could be 3845 – 3850.
📊VOLUME PROFILE
Current POC: around 3780, acting as strong support.
VaH: 3803 – 3805 → if price holds above this area, the bullish trend remains dominant.
📊PRICE ACTION
After a strong rally, the market may consolidate sideways around 3810 – 3820 before breaking out.
If 3795 is broken, gold may retest 3780 before recovering.
🟢 SCENARIO 1 – BUY PULLBACK AT SUPPORT
Entry: 3795 – 3800 or 3780 – 3785 (Liquidity + Old High + POC zone).
SL: below 3770
TP1: 3825
TP2: 3845
TP3: 3855+
✅ Rationale:
Confluence of Old High + Liquidity + rising trendline.
Main structure still shows Higher Low – Higher High → prioritize buying dips at support.
Declining volume during pullbacks → high probability of rebound.
🟡 SCENARIO 2 – BUY BREAKOUT
Entry: When H1 candle closes above 3828 – 3830.
SL: below 3810.
TP1: 3845
TP2: 3860+
✅ Rationale:
This is short-term resistance.
If broken with strong volume, the market will confirm a new bullish structure.
A successful breakout could extend targets toward 3850 – 3860.
📌 STRATEGY SUMMARY
Prioritize BUY with the main trend at support (3795 – 3800 / 3780 – 3785).
Consider BUY BREAKOUT if H1 closes above 3830.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading in financial markets involves significant risk, and you should only trade with capital you can afford to lose. Always do your own research before making any trading decisions.
GOLDCFD trade ideas
(XAU/USD) Daily Analysis – Bullish Continuation Setup Toward $4,(Gold Daily - as of Sep 30, 2025)
Current Price: ~$3,851.68
Trend: Strong uptrend with price following a rising channel
Timeframe: Daily candles
Tool Used: TradingView
🧩 Key Chart Elements
Support Level Buy Zone (Blue Box)
Range: $3,459.10 – $3,625.44
This is the planned re-entry/buy zone.
Coincides with a previous resistance zone turned support, and the lower bound of the channel.
Trade Entry Point
Suggested entry near $3,625.44
Aligned with the lower edge of the blue support zone.
Stop Loss
Placed slightly below the blue zone at $3,459.10
This protects against a breakdown from the channel and invalidation of the setup.
Price Action Forecast (Pink Line)
Expectation of a short-term pullback into the buy zone.
Followed by a strong bullish continuation toward the target.
Target Point
$4,452.425 marked as the LABA TARGET POINT
Suggests a long-term upside potential of around +17% from current price levels.
Trend Channel
Price is respecting an upward sloping parallel channel.
This provides structure and validation for the projected bullish move.
📈 Strategy Summary
Element Value
Buy Zone $3,459 – $3,625
Target $4,452
Stop Loss ~$3,459
Risk/Reward Favorable
Trend Bullish
🔍 Final Thoughts
This is a momentum-based trend-following strategy:
Wait for a retracement into the support zone.
Look for bullish reversal confirmation (e.g. bullish engulfing, RSI bounce, etc.).
Enter long with stop just below the zone.
Hold for the move toward ~$4,450.
GOLD (XAUUSD) Short Setup Active Price completed a 5-wave structure and tapped into strong resistance. The rejection confirms short potential with invalidation above 3900.
Targets:
3799 (first support)
3721 (next zone)
3664 (extended move)
As long as price stays below 3900, bearish momentum remains in play.
Gold Continues to Probe for New Highs.👋Hello everyone, what do you think about the trend of OANDA:XAUUSD ?
Gold continued its upward momentum on Tuesday, reaching a new record high near 3800 USD. Persistent geopolitical tensions, the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, and signs of weakness in major economies in Europe and the U.S. seem to be sustaining investor interest in the precious metal.
At the time of writing, gold is hovering around 3765 USD, undergoing a slight pullback, but the overall trend still supports further gains. From a technical perspective, I believe that after this correction, we could see higher price movements. The immediate target is to reclaim the 3790 USD level, followed by 3800 USD, and if conditions remain favorable, we could push even higher, as long as no deep corrections occur.
💬What do you think about gold? Feel free to share your views in the comments, I'm looking forward to your feedback!
Good luck!
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Bullish Reversal Entry Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸Bullish Reversal - 3784 zone
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
Gold 30Min Engaged ( Bearish Reversal Entry Detected )Time Frame: 30-Minute Warfare
Entry Protocol: Only after volume-verified breakout
🩸Bearish Reversal : 3746
➗ Hanzo Protocol: Volume-Tiered Entry Authority
➕ Zone Activated: Dynamic market pressure detected.
The level isn’t just price — it’s a memory of where they moved size.
Volume is rising beneath the surface — not noise, but preparation.
🔥 Tactical Note:
We wait for the energy signature — when volume betrays intention.
The trap gets set. The weak follow. We execute.
GOLD → Intermediate bottom. Consolidation before growth FX:XAUUSD is being sold off and declining amid profit-taking following speeches by Powell and Trump. However, the market is quite aggressive amid falling interest rates. After forming an interim bottom, the market quickly bought back the decline.
Gold is correcting after record growth, awaiting new signals from Fed representatives and PCE inflation data on Friday. The price remains close to historic highs, but the upward momentum has temporarily slowed, with consolidation forming at 3752-3791.
Key factors : Powell gave no clear hints about future rate cuts, noting the risks of rising inflation and a weakening labor market. The probability of a rate cut in October has risen to 92%, but the Fed's sentiment index is fluctuating somewhat...
The risk of a US government shutdown on October 1 and mixed PMI data are holding back the USD's strengthening.
Technically, gold remains in a bullish trend, but consolidation is possible in the short term. PCE data will be the deciding factor — weak figures will support the metal, while strong figures will trigger a correction.
Resistance levels: 3776.9, 3791, 3800
Support levels: 3767, 3752, 3738
The price is consolidating. Before reaching 3791-3800, there may be a retest of local support. Similarly, a retest of the ATH may also trigger a small pullback of 1/2 of the impulse before a breakout and growth to the specified targets.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold Surges to 14-Year High Amid US Government Shutdown RiskHello everyone,
Gold extended its rally today, reaching its highest level in 14 years as safe-haven demand soared. The main driver comes from political uncertainty in the US, particularly the looming risk of a government shutdown as Congress struggles to pass a short-term spending bill.
From a technical perspective, gold has broken out of its FVG zone and is approaching the 3,850–3,870 USD resistance area, which now stands as the critical barrier. A decisive break above could open the door toward 3,900 USD or higher. On the downside, the 3,815–3,790 USD range (green FVG) is serving as dynamic support and a cushion for the ongoing bullish momentum.
News flow remains the dominant catalyst. The US budget standoff and shutdown fears raise concerns about disruptions in federal services and the broader economy, prompting investors to flock to gold. At the same time, the dollar is under pressure due to political instability, while weaker US 10-year bond yields and falling oil prices further strengthen the precious metal’s bullish backdrop.
What do you think about gold’s next move? Share your view in the comments!
"Gold (XAU/USD) Bullish Continuation Towards 3910+"This chart shows the XAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) 1-hour analysis. Price is currently trading around $3,877, holding above two key support zones at $3,864 (Support 1) and $3,852 (Support 2). The structure suggests a potential bullish continuation if price respects these levels.
The projection indicates a rise toward the 3910 level (new ATH target), followed by further upside toward resistance levels at $3,900, $3,916, and $3,942. The overall bias remains bullish as long as the price holds above the support zones, signaling opportunities for buyers to push the market higher.
GOLD Breakout Done , Short Setup Valid To Get 200 Pips !Here is My 30 Mins Gold Chart , and here is my opinion , we finally Below 3750.00 With 4H Candle ! and we have a 4H Candle closure below it And Perfect Breakout and this give us a very good confirmation , so we have a good confirmation now to can sell after the price go back to retest the broken area 3750.00 , and we can targeting 100 to 200 pips . if we have a daily closure above this area this mean this idea will not be valid anymore .
Reasons To Enter :
1- Perfect Touch For The Area .
2- Clear Bearish Price Action .
3- Bigger T.F Giving Good Bearish P.A .
4- Over Bought .
5- Perfect 30 Mins Closure .
TraderTilki Gold Play: Double Sell, One TargetGood morning, Traders
Back again with my gold analysis.
Right now, gold has a clear target at 3700. It’ll either reach it straight from the 3736 level, or after a move up to 3768.
I’m opening a sell from here, aiming for 3700. If price pushes up to 3768, I’ll open another sell there—same target, 3700.
Gold will absolutely hit 3700.
Once it does, I’ll update you again.
My friends, every single like from you is my biggest motivation to keep sharing these analyses.
Huge thanks to all of you who support me with your likes.
DeGRAM | GOLD near the $3900 level📊 Technical Analysis
● XAU/USD is moving inside a rising channel but just touched resistance near 3,900, forming rejection candles that hint at exhaustion.
● Structure shows potential double-top behavior with projected pullback toward 3,855 and possibly 3,800 if channel midline breaks.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Strong U.S. economic data and Fed hawkishness keep Treasury yields firm, limiting gold’s upside despite recent risk-off flows.
✨ Summary
● Short bias: resistance at 3,900 rejected, downside targets 3,855 and 3,800. Pressure from U.S. macro resilience supports a corrective move lower.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
GOLD surpasses historical peak - waiting for boost from NFPNews of the past week: OANDA:XAUUSD approaches historical peak, benefits from US tariffs and geopolitical tensions
• In the trading session on September 26, the spot gold price surpassed the $3,760/ounce mark and fluctuated around $3,780, just a short distance from the historical peak of $3,791 set earlier this week. This is also the sixth consecutive week of increase for the precious metal, thanks to increased demand for safe havens in the context of new US tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions.
• The August personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation report contained few surprises: Core PCE rose 0.2% month-over-month, in line with forecasts and below July's initial 0.3% reading (which was later revised down). Year-over-year, core PCE held steady at 2.9%, still above the Fed's 2% target. Total PCE rose 0.3% month-over-month, up from July's 0.2% reading; year-over-year, it edged up to 2.7% from 2.6%.
• This inflationary trend has weakened the US dollar, providing additional support for gold prices. However, the Fed’s monetary policy picture remains cautious. After cutting interest rates by 25 basis points last week, many Fed officials have stressed that there is no need to rush to ease further as price pressures persist despite signs of a slowdown in the labor market.
• Meanwhile, U.S. economic data released on Thursday, including stronger-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth and lower jobless claims, added to the Fed’s concerns, potentially complicating the path to rate cuts, while gold continues to benefit from haven demand and a fraught political and trade environment.
This week: Global markets await US jobs data and signals from the Fed
• From September 29 to October 4, global financial markets will be watching the speeches of US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials after the September interest rate cut. The biggest highlight is the non-farm payroll (NFP) report released on Friday, a factor that could shape the interest rate path at the Fed's meeting in late October.
• At the start of the week, the Eurozone will release a series of data on economic sentiment, consumer confidence and industrial climate, important indicators to check the possibility of escaping the risk of stagflation. On Tuesday, Australia decides on its benchmark interest rate, Japan publishes its policy summary, while China releases its manufacturing PMI. Germany also releases CPI and retail sales on the same day. In the US, Chicago PMI and JOLTs employment data will be released, along with a series of speeches from regional Fed presidents, where views on interest rate cuts are clearly divided.
• Wednesday will see the US ADP jobs report and the Eurozone harmonized CPI, which are key data for ECB policy. In addition, the final PMIs from the Eurozone, Germany, France and the UK will be released. The Fed continues its series of speeches, including from the Vice Chairman, which will further focus the market on the employment-inflation balance.
• The climax comes on Friday when the US releases its September non-farm payrolls. If the data is weaker than expected, the chances of the Fed cutting interest rates by another 25 basis points in October will increase, weakening the USD and supporting gold prices. Conversely, strong data could reverse expectations and strengthen the greenback. On the same day, Japan releases its unemployment rate, adding to the currency market.
• Overall, this week is a clash of economic data and policy guidance. NFP will be a key measure to break the Fed’s current balance, while European and Japanese data reflect global policy divergence. For investors, gold and the US dollar are likely to be volatile, while crude oil will be influenced by inventory data and Chinese PMIs.
Technical Outlook Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Summary: Gold on the daily chart is running in a clear uptrend channel, buyers are still in control but need to pay attention to the accumulation phase and high RSI before entering orders.
Technical perspective
• Main trend: Strong increase — price is fluctuating in a clear uptrend channel, tops/cores/bottoms are all making lower and higher lows → bullish structure is intact.
• Moving average (MA): Short-term MA is pointing up, price is above MA → confirms the uptrend and MA acts as dynamic support when there is a pullback.
• Key support: ~3,720–3,738 USD/oz (near support/lower consolidation band); stronger support around 3,629–3,630 (previous bottom).
• Technical resistance/target: immediate resistance ~3,791 USD (recent top). Fibonacci targets if broken: 3,825 (0.5) → 3,872 (0.618) → 3,938 (0.786) → extension to ~4,022 (extension).
• RSI & momentum: RSI is in high territory but not yet giving strong reversal signals — momentum remains positive but warns of technical correction risk.
Risk management tips & signals to watch
• Split orders, don't go all-in; limit risk to 1–2% of account per order.
• Monitor RSI: if you see a negative Divergence + a strong bearish candle closing below the lower channel boundary, postpone the Buy.
• Macro news (PCE, NFP, Fed speech) can create a strong gap, it is best to use Stop Trading around those events.
• If it breaks below 3,630 with high Volume, the Bullish Scenario is null, need to switch to capital preservation.
Basic scenario: still prioritize long because of the bullish structure and MA support. However, smart Trades buy with a plan, have disciplined Stop, and don't forget: gold likes macro Drama, so keep a flexible mentality.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3813 - 3811⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3817
→Take Profit 1 3805
↨
→Take Profit 2 3799
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3753 - 3755⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3749
→Take Profit 1 3761
↨
→Take Profit 2 3767
XAUUSD Short: Targeting 3800 on a Corrective MoveHello, traders! The price auction for XAUUSD has been operating within a well-defined ascending channel, confirming a strong bullish trend. This structure has guided the price higher through a series of impulsive moves and pullbacks, with buyers maintaining the initiative throughout this phase.
Currently, the auction is at a critical inflection point at the top of this channel. The price has rallied to directly test the channel's ascending supply line after a strong run-up. This is a key area where sellers are expected to emerge and challenge the prevailing bullish momentum.
My scenario for the development of events is a short-term corrective move from these highs. I expect that sellers will defend the supply line and reject the price, initiating a downward rotation back towards the channel's support. A failure to break out higher would confirm a temporary correction is underway. The take-profit is therefore set at 3800, targeting the major demand zone. Manage your risk.
"XAUUSD Bullish Setup Toward 3800–3810"This chart shows the XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar) 1-hour analysis.
Price is currently trading around 3769 after a bullish move.
A support trend line is holding price momentum, suggesting buyers are still active above this level.
Immediate support is seen near 3753, while the trendline also aligns with this support zone.
If price respects the support trend line, a bullish continuation is expected.
The upside targets are marked at 3800 as the next key level, and 3810 as a potential new all-time high (ATH).
The projection indicates a possible short-term pullback to the trend line before resuming upward movement.
Overall, the setup suggests a bullish outlook, as long as price stays above the support and trend line.
#GOLD - #XAUUSD# Gold has reached an extreme resistance around the 1.618 Fib at $3,765, with RSI confirming overheated conditions. A likely scenario is a correction into $3,280 liquidity zone, possibly deeper toward $2,720 before resuming its bullish macro trend toward $3,800–$4,200.
In the Monthly Time Frame chart, you can observe a major resistance trend: it extends from the 2000 low to the 2012 high, and again from the late 2015 low to the 2012 high, projecting a strong resistance at the current price level.
My strategy is to sell first and then buy!
Gold is trading between 3740 and 3770 in the US market. After a period of consolidation, the short-term moving average has shown signs of turning upward, indicating that market momentum is building. On the hourly chart, the technical pattern is gradually repairing, with the K-line successfully crossing the short-term moving average, indicating a shift towards strength. The high-level fluctuation pattern on the daily chart also favors a bullish trend, and the overall technical outlook supports a bullish trend in the US market. We recommend primarily long positions at low levels, focusing on the effectiveness of the 3740 support level. If the US price stabilizes and breaks through the 3770 resistance level, further upside potential is expected. It is important to note that for bullish momentum to continue, a large retracement should be avoided during the current period to prevent an excessive correction from disrupting the short-term technical structure. During the US market, a light position can be used to test long positions based on support levels, maintaining strict risk management.
Gold Recommendation: Sell gold at 3783-3788, target 3755-3750-3745-3740...
Add to positions if gold retraces to 3735-3740, and continue to add to positions if it retraces to 3718-3723. The target remains at 3765-3780.
US Government Shutdown Boosts Gold, FOMO BUY Momentum Continues🚀 XAUUSD – Daily Trading Plan| MMFLOW TRADING
📊 Market Context
Gold kicks off Q4/2025 with strong bullish sentiment as safe-haven flows continue to dominate. The shock of a US government shutdown has sparked fresh concerns, driving investors to accelerate their demand for gold as the ultimate hedge.
Adding to the momentum, the potential delay in the NFP jobs report this week leaves markets “thirsty” for guidance, putting gold in the spotlight. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains under pressure from political instability and expectations that the Fed may lean closer to further rate cuts.
Together, this backdrop highlights gold’s resilience after its explosive rally and points to further upside potential as safe-haven inflows and FOMO buying pressure continue to fuel the trend.
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4)
Price remains within the main bullish structure, holding above key supports.
Primary BUY Zone: 3833–3831 (Fib + CP zone), strong reaction expected.
Secondary BUY Zone: 3817–3815 (OBS zone), deeper support, ideal for additional long entries.
Liquidity Sell Zone 3919–3923: A potential liquidity trap area to watch.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
BUY Zones: 3833–3831, 3817–3815
SELL Zone (watch carefully): 3919–3923
Key Levels: 3800, 3855, 3880
📈 Trading Scenarios & Plan
✅ BUY ZONE 1: 3833–3831
SL: 3827
TP: 3838 - 3842 - 3846 - 3850 - 3855 - 3860 - 3870 - ???
✅ BUY ZONE 2: 3817–3815
SL: 3810
TP: 3822 - 3826 - 3830 - 3835 - 3840 - 3850 - 3860 - 3870 - ???
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
A US government shutdown may trigger unexpected volatility, especially with the NFP delay.
Enter longs only with price action confirmation at support zones.
Avoid chasing highs – patience is key, wait for pullbacks into BUY zones.
✅ Summary
Gold is directly benefiting from political turmoil and delayed US economic data. The main bias remains BUY with safe-haven inflows, focusing on 3833–3831 and 3817–3815 as strategic zones. Targets expand toward 3870–3880 and potentially above 3920 if bullish momentum holds strong.
📢 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for real-time updates and early access to BIGWIN setups!
Bulls continue to increase prices, waiting for ATH 3915⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Markets, via the CME FedWatch Tool, now price in a 97% chance of a Fed rate cut in October and a 76% probability of another in December. Growing bets on easing pressured the US Dollar, making Gold more attractive to overseas buyers. Bullion also drew support from fears of a potential US government shutdown, with Washington gridlocked over funding and the Labor Department warning it would halt key data releases, including Friday’s jobs report, if a shutdown occurs.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Gold price returns, continues to create new ATH 3875 in Asian session. Maintain buying power and continue the uptrend
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3915- 3917 SL 3922
TP1: $3905
TP2: $3890
TP3: $3880
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3833-$3831 SL $3826
TP1: $3845
TP2: $3860
TP3: $3870
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
XAUUSD Long: Bullish Momentum ContinuesHello, traders! The prior price auction for XAUUSD was dominated by a wide consolidation range, from which the price broke out with significant bullish momentum. This breakout from the demand zone 2 established the current uptrend, which has since taken the form of a well-defined ascending channel, confirming that the market initiative is with the buyers.
Currently, the price action continues to be guided by this ascending channel. After a successful breakout above the demand level, the price has reached the upper portion of the channel and is now in a corrective phase. This pullback is a normal part of a healthy uptrend and is bringing the price back towards an area of potential support.
My scenario for the development of events is a continuation of the uptrend after this correction. I believe the price will find support, possibly after a brief dip, and then resume its rally within the channel. In my opinion, the underlying bullish momentum is strong enough to push for a new structural high. The take-profit is therefore set at 3785, targeting the upper resistance area of the channel. Manage your risk.
XAUUSD Long: Bullish Momentum to ContinueHello, traders! The price auction for XAUUSD has been in a strong bullish phase, confirmed by the establishment of a well-defined ascending channel. This uptrend was initiated after a breakout from lower levels and has shown significant strength by pushing through multiple prior resistance areas, including the 3470 DEMAND 2 and 3675 DEMAND levels, turning them into new support.
Currently, the price action is continuing its ascent within the upper portion of this ascending channel, indicating that the bullish initiative remains firmly in control. The market is in a clear expansion phase, with very little sign of significant selling pressure, suggesting that any pullbacks are likely to be minor and short-lived.
My scenario for the development of events is a direct continuation of the current bullish momentum. I believe that the price will only make a shallow correction from the current levels before the next impulsive wave higher begins. In my opinion, the underlying trend is strong enough to carry the price to a new high within the channel. The take-profit is therefore set at 3835 points, targeting the upper resistance line of the channel. Manage your risk.
'' Could We See 3800 This Week? ''As we can see we have an uptrend forming on gold, breaking 3750-3755 resistance level.
I think Monday will go on a retest for this support level and fly all the way up targeting (770-780-790-800)
This is just an idea for a trade, taking confirmation on lower time frame before entering it will be the best choice
Gold consolidation a new chance formed to Growth sideGold has reached a new ATH (all-time high) in today’s session, reflecting strong bullish momentum US Government Shutdown Risk (Oct 1) a potential shutdown would likely weaken the dollar due to economic uncertainty Fed Rate Cut Probability (~90%): Markets are pricing in a high chance of a rate cut in October, which would further pressure the USD and support gold prices Even though some Fed officials remain cautious, the macro bias still points to a weaker USD, which is bullish for gold.
Technically ; After making a new ATH, price could retrace to the support zone (3795). This is normal profit-taking behaviour A false breakdown (brief dip below support followed by a strong rebound) is likely. If this happens, price could accelerate upward again. and we could find a next Physiological level 3885,
You may find more details n the chart,
Trade wisely best of luck buddies.
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