Gold may move up a little and then start to declineHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The market for Gold has transitioned from a prolonged balancing phase into a strong directional trend, following a decisive breakout from its prior multi-week big range. This breakout, originating from the support area near the 3445 level, shifted market control firmly to buyers and initiated a new impulsive phase. The price action for XAU since then has been characterized by a steep, high-momentum rally, which is being guided by an ascending mirror line. Currently, the asset is at a new high, continuing to push upwards along this aggressive trendline. However, such accelerated trends are often unsustainable and can signal that the market is becoming overextended and due for a correction. I expect that after a potential final push higher, the price will stage a sharp reversal, with enough selling pressure to cause a breakdown below the steep mirror line. A break of this dynamic support would be the first confirmation that a corrective phase has begun. Therefore, the TP for this corrective scenario is logically placed at 3520 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
GOLDCFD trade ideas
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to support area of 3558.Colleagues, gold is in an active upward impulse of big wave “1” and if until now I was only talking about long positions, now it is time to think about the correction in wave “2”.
Wave “1” (red) consists of five waves and, to all appearances, wave “5” (blue) has either completed or is about to complete.
This means that I expect a corrective movement to the 3558 support area. I believe that this is the minimum retracement level, and the price may reach lower values, but we will work for the result, which we will achieve soon.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
Gold hits a new high again, the opportunity to invest has come!Gold's recent performance remains strong, reaching a new all-time high near 3,685, fully demonstrating the dominance of bullish sentiment. Although inflation remains viscous, the market is increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week. Focus is shifting to the extent of the cut and subsequent policy guidance. If the rate cut exceeds expectations, gold may usher in a new round of liquidity-driven gains. If it falls short of expectations, short-term profit-taking may occur, leading to increased volatility.
From a technical perspective, gold has closed higher for several consecutive days, with short-term moving averages aligned in a bullish pattern. The daily and 4-hour charts remain in an upward trend, with the support center continuously shifting upwards. The bullish structure is solid, but the current price is already at a relatively high level. If the upward push fails to break through with significant volume, there is still room for a short-term pullback, and we need to be wary of the possibility of a technical correction. Today's core trading strategy is to primarily buy on dips, supplemented by shorting at high levels. We should participate with the trend and avoid blindly chasing the market. Support below is the 3650-3635 area. If it stabilizes after a pullback, we can arrange long positions in batches, with the initial target around 3680-3685, and then explore the potential for further growth after breaking through the new high. Resistance above is the 3685-3690 area. If the short-term upward push encounters resistance and fails to break through, we can try shorting with a light position, with a stop-loss placed above the resistance level. Enter and exit quickly, and avoid a prolonged battle. The short-term bullish strength and weakness dividing line is the 3630-3620 level. If it breaks below, we should be wary of the risk of a deep pullback.
This week is packed with macroeconomic events, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in particular under scrutiny, potentially amplifying market volatility. We recommend building positions in batches, maintaining strict position management, and setting effective stop-loss and take-profit targets to ensure profit capture while minimizing drawdown risk.
Do you think the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates beyond expectations this time? We welcome your exchange of views. We will also adjust our strategies immediately based on the data to ensure that our trading rhythm keeps pace with the market.
Gold Trade Setup🕰 Weekly Structure
Gold is still holding a bullish tone overall, with higher-timeframe demand zones supporting the structure. Momentum favors continuation as long as demand levels are respected.
📉 Daily View
Price recently broke structure (BOS) and confirmed buyers stepping in. The daily demand zone is aligned with the 4H block, adding confluence for bullish continuation.
⏱ 4H Breakdown
Price tapped into 4H demand around 3660–3670.
Clean rejection with a strong impulsive leg breaking above resistance.
Swing range remains intact with liquidity swept below before the move higher.
Upside target zone sits near 3730s, offering a solid risk-reward (around 1:6).
🔍 Outlook
Short-term pullbacks into 4H demand (3660–3680) = potential buy entries.
As long as demand holds, mid-term outlook remains bullish toward 3730+.
Failure to hold demand would re-open downside back into the swing range (~3640–3620).
Bias : ✅ Short-term pullback → Mid-term bullish continuation.
$XAU Top Approaching - Expect a 30%-40 RetraceTVC:XAU has gone on a 76% rally since the start of 2024. In 2010, TVC:XAU went on an 86% rally before retracing 35%. The long term upside is almost over and I am calling a top here. Cycles don't repeat but they always rhyme.
SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:XAUT
Gold (XAUUSD) Intraday Technical Analysis – September 12, 2025Gold is currently trading around 3,643 USD/oz, after bouncing from a short-term descending channel. However, price is now testing a key resistance zone at 3,650 – 3,668 USD, where selling pressure could return.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 3,650 – 3,668 USD (previous highs + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
Support: 3,585 – 3,600 USD (previous low + EMA confluence).
Technical Outlook
On the H1 timeframe, price retested the descending trendline after a channel breakout.
RSI is flattening near the overbought zone, signaling weakening bullish momentum.
EMA is turning sideways, confirming indecision at this level.
Trading Strategy
Primary Scenario (Short from Resistance):
Entry: 3,646 – 3,650 USD
Stop-loss: above 3,668 USD
Take-profit: 3,600 – 3,590 USD
Alternative Scenario (Long on Breakout):
If price breaks and closes above 3,670 USD, bullish momentum could extend toward 3,700 – 3,715 USD.
Conclusion
Gold is facing strong resistance, making a short-term pullback the favored setup. Watch how price reacts around 3,650 – 3,668 USD for trade confirmation.
Follow for more daily gold strategies and remember to save this analysis if you find it useful.
Gold: In a short-term downtrend after Powell's comments?GOLD: In a short-term downtrend after Powell's comments?
Powell continues to make hawkish comments about the economy and the reasons for interest rate cuts.
He repeatedly emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve (FED) and that its monetary policy is working well. These comments still support the strengthening of the US dollar and unless we face more manipulation, gold could begin the process of dissipating from this new bearish pattern.
Gold has formed a rising wedge pattern, which often signals a bearish reversal. The price has already broken below the wedge, showing early signs of weakness.
If sellers remain in control, the downside targets to watch are:
$3,618
$3,586
$3,530
As long as Gold stays below the wedge, the bearish outlook remains valid. However, if the price climbs back inside the wedge and holds above $3,707, the bearish scenario could fail.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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PS: Let's see what happens now
Gold Price Bearish Setup with Reversal ZoneThis chart of Gold (XAU/USD) on the 15-minute timeframe highlights a potential bearish setup. Price has moved up into the marked Fair Value Gap (FVG), which is expected to act as a resistance zone. From there, the projection suggests a downward move toward the reversal zone, where price may find support and create a possible bounce.
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 9/17/2025Although it has broken important resistance of 3673, gold moved very slow yesterday and briefly touched 3700 another ATH. In 2D TF, gold has been very overly bought. It is bound to retrace. Therefore, I am expecting price to drop today to at least 3673. If 3673 is broken, 3655 is the next target.
XAUUSD GOLD OUTLOOK CHART ANALYSIS Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook
Gold has been trading within an ascending channel, but recent price action suggests weakening bullish momentum near the resistance level around $3,680 – $3,700.
🔎 Key Insights:
• Price rejected resistance and is showing signs of bearish momentum.
• A breakdown below the channel could open the way to the first support near $3,600.
• If selling pressure continues, the next downside target is $3,500.
📊 Trading Plan:
• Bearish Bias below $3,680.
• Watch for confirmation on the break of $3,600.
• Short-term traders may look for selling opportunities toward $3,500.
• A sustained move above resistance would invalidate the bearish setup.
⚠️ Risk management is key – always use stop losses and adjust position sizes according to your risk tolerance
Could Gold Repeat the 2020 Playbook After Fed Rate Cuts?Gold traders are asking whether today’s environment could trigger a move similar to March 2020, when the Fed cut rates to zero and gold first sold off before exploding to all-time highs. Here’s a breakdown of what happened then, what’s happening now, and what to watch.
What happened in 2020?
In March 2020, the Fed slashed rates by 100bps in an emergency move, bringing rates down to 0–0.25%.
Instead of rallying immediately, gold dropped about 10% in one week. Prices fell from around $1,670/oz to $1,470/oz as investors liquidated assets in a rush for cash.
The sell-off was short-lived: by the end of March, gold was back above $1,600/oz.
Over the following months, ultra-low rates and massive QE fueled a powerful rally. By August 2020, gold had reached a record high of $2,067/oz.
The lesson: liquidity panics can knock gold down quickly, but monetary easing and negative real yields drive strong recoveries.
Today’s backdrop (2025):
Rate cuts are back on the table. Markets expect the Fed to ease after holding rates high for nearly two years.
Real yields are softening. If inflation stays sticky while nominal yields fall, conditions favor gold.
Uncertainty is elevated. Trade tensions, debt concerns, and geopolitical risks are boosting safe-haven demand.
Gold is already near record highs. Bullish momentum is strong, but stretched positioning leaves room for pullbacks.
Could we see a 2020-style dip?
Yes, but probably not as severe:
A short-lived correction could occur if liquidity stress forces investors to raise cash quickly.
Unlike 2020, central banks now have stronger liquidity tools (repo facilities, swap lines), which could soften the impact.
Without an external shock on the scale of COVID-19, the drop would likely be smaller than the $200+ plunge we saw in March 2020.
What to watch
Fed tone – A sharper or surprise cut could spark volatility.
Real yields – Declining real yields remain gold’s most bullish driver.
USD strength – A weaker dollar boosts gold for non-USD buyers.
Liquidity signals – Stress in credit or funding markets could trigger a dash to cash.
Takeaway
History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes. The 2020 playbook shows that gold can dip hard on liquidity stress (from $1,670 to $1,470 in a week) before roaring back once monetary easing takes hold.
Today’s setup — high debt, expected Fed cuts, sticky inflation — still favors gold in the medium term. But traders should be ready for a fast shake-out before the next leg higher.
💡 My View: Any liquidity-driven dip is more likely a buying opportunity than a trend reversal. As long as real yields soften and the Fed stays dovish, gold’s long-term trajectory remains bullish.
Gold XAUUSD Intraday Move 15 Sept 2025Gold continues to show resilience within a bullish structure, and the current setup highlights two potential aggressive buying opportunities. The first lies between 3637–3639, while a deeper retracement toward 3630–3633 also offers an attractive entry point, with both setups well-protected by a stop loss at 3622. These zones align with key demand levels and trendline support, suggesting strong buying interest on dips. Upside targets remain at 3657 initially and extend toward the 3674 region, reflecting a continuation of the broader bullish trend. The reasoning behind this bias stems from both technical and fundamental factors — technically, the market continues to form higher lows, signaling strength, while fundamentally, expectations of potential rate cuts this week could weaken the dollar and further support gold prices. Together, these elements create a favorable environment for buyers, offering strong risk-to-reward opportunities in anticipation of continued bullish momentum.
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 9/18/2025Gold fluctuated a lost due to FED news yesterday. But it indeed dropped and now is facing 3655 strong support. 2D TF printed a red bar, signalling a few days' of correction is ahead. Another confirmation is the broken of the trendline in the chart. Therefore, I am expecting further drop for today.
Gold could bounce up to 3675 and drop from there. If 3655 is broken, the next support will be 3615
Interest rate meeting is imminent, two principles!
Today's morning session saw a volatile decline. Upon encountering support, the market rebounded briefly, but the strength was limited, maintaining an overall volatile downward trend. This trend seems somewhat odd—with the interest rate meeting imminent, the positive news should have continued, yet the market saw a volatile decline. There are two possibilities:
First, the intraday volatile decline is creating room for upward movement due to the positive news from Thursday's early morning interest rate meeting. In this case, it's bullish!
Second, the intraday volatile decline is a sign of the market positioning itself in advance, "buy anticipation, sell reality"; in this case, it's bearish.
Overall, the Fed's late-night interest rate meeting is a 50-50 market trend for both bulls and bears! We can't make predictions or speculate on the sentiment of market institutions and investment banks; all we can do is conduct a thorough technical analysis, as shown in the chart.
First: As shown in the chart, support levels are clearly visible, located near 3680, 3660, and around 3620, as well as the final support level of the trend channel. The dividing line between strength and weakness lies at the support boundary of the trend channel, serving as a subsequent stop-gap.
Second: Technically, bulls are currently in control! As long as the price remains above the support level of the trend channel, it signals continued bullish momentum.
In summary: short-term support of 3660-3655 is bullish, and the target is 3700-3720
GOLD GPS"Important zones that, if confirmed, are excellent for entry at these prices. If the price breaks and consolidates above 3700, it provides a confirmation for buying; entering in this area is excellent. The ideal time for entry is at the opening of market sessions. The price level of 3680 is very important. A confirmation at 3660 provides an excellent buying opportunity. In my opinion, the market is corrective."
XAUUSD Could top in September but long term looks bright.Gold (XAUUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up for the past 2 years and right now it is unfolding its latest Bullish Leg. That started after the previous pull-back/ consolidation phase (May - July) hit and found Support on the 1D MA100 (red trend-line).
This trend-line has been Gold's major Support and buy entry since mid-October 2023. Every pull-back on/ near it, kick-started a Bullish Leg, the weakest of which has been +16.59% and the strongest +23.75%.
Since April 15 2024, the 1D RSI Resistance has been a great indication of when to sell (equally for buying the Support), so even though we expect the current Bullish Leg to complete a +22.06% rise at least, we will be looking at the RSI Resistance more closely to time the sell.
The subsequent pull-back should bounce on the dashed pivot trend-line and naturally again on the 1D MA100, which will be a buy opportunity towards the ultimate long-term Target of 4300 (+22.00% again).
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Gold Analysis: Key Levels to Watch Ahead of Potential TrendGold is currently trading around the 3641 level, and the near-term price action suggests a mild bullish momentum may persist toward the 3660–3664 resistance zone. This area represents a potential supply zone, where sellers may re-enter the market, leading to a reversal.
Should price action show signs of exhaustion or bearish confirmation in this zone, we anticipate a downward move targeting the 3612 support level — a key structural level on the intraday chart. A decisive break below 3612 would likely trigger further downside pressure, exposing the next support at 3590.
If bearish momentum sustains and price breaches 3590, the 3540 level emerges as the next significant support, where buyers may look to defend the medium-term trend.
⚠️ Risk Factors to Watch:
US Dollar Index (DXY) – Strength could cap gold upside.
US CPI / Fed Announcements – Any hawkish surprise may invalidate bullish setups.
Geopolitical News – Gold tends to react sharply to risk-off sentime
Gold Swing Long Idea (4H Chart)Gold continues to trade in a strong uptrend, creating higher highs and higher lows. After a sharp move, price has pulled back into a major demand zone, where buyers previously showed strong interest. This area is now acting as support.
The plan is to go long from this demand zone, with the stop placed just below the zone to protect against invalidation. The target is the recent swing high, which aligns with the next resistance level.
This trade follows the broader trend direction, combining market structure (HH-HL pattern) with demand zone confluence to build a favorable swing setup.
key levels
Buy Entry : 3620
Take profit : 3635
Take profit : 3650
Target : 3670
Stop Loss :3588
Note: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Focus on CPI, beware of unexpected surprisesThe market focuses on CPI data, which is unlikely to fluctuate significantly in the short term. Although it has fallen below the recent support of 3620, buying below is still strong, so don't chase the short position. From the news and other recent data, it can be seen that the weak US employment data has suppressed the economy, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The current market basically assumes that 25 basis points has become a reality, so the possibility of positive CPI data is relatively high.
If the CPI data is positive for gold, it will first test the resistance level of 3640-3660. If the data triggers a strong rally, gold could potentially reach new highs, aiming for 3690-3700.
However, the previous NFP data was also crucial, but the result was a surprise. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of a similar surprise with the CPI data. If the CPI data is bearish for gold, it will first test 3600 below. Once it falls below 3600, it will go to 3580.
The above content is just an analysis of the possible trend of gold, which you can refer to. If the European session retreats again to 3620-3610 without breaking, you can try to go long with a light position, and the ideal target is 3640-3660. If it falls below 3600, SL will be adjusted in time.
Gold 1H – Retail Sales Impact Before FedGold on the 1H timeframe is trading near 3,682 after a strong BOS. Liquidity is now stacked above the premium resistance at 3,700 and below the fresh FVG demand at 3,669–3667. With U.S. Retail Sales scheduled today at 19:30 VN time, volatility may spike intraday, but broader positioning remains cautious ahead of the Fed’s rate decision this week. Expect engineered sweeps into premium before retracements back into demand.
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📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔴 SELL ZONE 3,700 – 3,698 (SL 3,707): Premium resistance for engineered sweep/rejection targeting 3,690 → 3,680 → 3,670.
• 🟢 FVG BUY ZONE 3,669 – 3,667 (SL 3,660): Fair Value Gap demand aligned with retracement into structure, targeting 3,680 → 3,690 → 3,700+.
• 🟢 BUY SUPPORT 3,641 – 3,639 (SL 3,632): Deep discount support zone targeting 3,655 → 3,670 → 3,685+.
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📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔺 Buy Setup – FVG Reclaim (3,669–3,667)
• Entry: 3,669 – 3,667
• Stop Loss: 3,660
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,680
TP2: 3,690
TP3: 3,700+
👉 Look for a liquidity sweep into the FVG zone before New York open.
🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Sweep (3,641–3,639)
• Entry: 3,641 – 3,639
• Stop Loss: 3,632
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,655
TP2: 3,670
TP3: 3,685+
👉 Strong R:R if price hunts stops below structure before Retail Sales data.
🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Liquidity Run (3,700–3,698)
• Entry: 3,700 – 3,698
• Stop Loss: 3,707
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,690
TP2: 3,680
TP3: 3,670
👉 Expect engineered stop-runs into premium supply before fading lower.
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🔑 Strategy Note
Retail Sales may provide short-term volatility, but Fed expectations will dominate the week. Smart money is likely to run both sides of liquidity: fading premium near 3,700–3,698 while protecting buys at 3,669–3,667 and 3,641–3,639. Trade with reduced size and confirm structure on H1 closes.