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Gold Plan | Where will gold drop today?🔍 Market Context Gold continues to maintain a short-term upward trend following a series of Break of Structure (BoS) , confirming active buying from lower zones. Currently, the price is approaching the ATH GOLD zone and heading towards the Liquidity Sell Zone 4,281 USD – a densely liquid area where short-term sell reactions from major players may occur. After a hot rise, technical correction risks are starting to increase. Lower zones like 4,186 – 4,152 – 4,130 USD will be potential “accumulation zones” for institutional buyers in the upcoming pullback. 💎 Technical Analysis ATH GOLD: 4,275 – 4,280 USD Liquidity Sell Zone: 4,281 – 4,285 USD → high liquidity resistance area, may trigger short-term reversal reactions. Liquidity Zone $$$: 4,186 – 4,152 USD → crucial support area in the uptrend, where technical reactions are expected. FVG – BoS Zone: 4,152 – 4,148 USD → “price balance” zone yet to be filled, likely to be retested. OB Deep Zone: 4,130 – 4,120 USD → deep demand zone converging with Fibo 0.786 – ideal area for large capital to re-accumulate. Overall structure remains bullish , but in the premium zone – an area where institutions typically distribute orders to gain liquidity before adjusting. 📈 Trading Scenarios 1️⃣ Main Scenario – Sell reaction at Liquidity Zone 4,281 USD When the price hits the 4,275 – 4,281 USD zone and clear reversal signals appear (rejection candles, bearish engulfing, or minor structure break), → open short-term sell orders (scalp/intraday). Target: 4,186 → 4,152 USD. Stop Loss: above 4,285 USD. ➡️ This is a typical “liquidity sweep – technical reaction” scenario, capitalising on short-term sell-offs at high liquidity peaks. 2️⃣ Secondary Scenario – Buy back following the main trend after correction When the price corrects to the 4,186 – 4,152 USD zone or deeper to OB Deep 4,130 USD , and clear upward confirmation signals appear (strong rejection or minor BoS increasing again), → open buy orders in line with the main trend. Target: 4,230 → 4,275 USD. Stop Loss: below 4,120 USD. ➡️ Trend-following scenario – waiting for price correction to discount zones to accumulate in line with the larger trend. ⚠️ Risk Management Do not FOMO buy when the price is hitting the 4,275 – 4,281 USD zone. Prioritise short-term sells with clear confirmations or buys at lower OB zones. Keep light volume when trading against the main trend. Observe reactions at the 4,186 zone – this is the key level of the day. 💬 Conclusion Gold is at the peak of the current rise , short-term profit-taking pressure may appear around the 4,281 USD zone. If strong reactions occur, a correction to the 4,186 – 4,152 USD zone is reasonable for market rebalancing. The larger trend remains upward , so lower OB zones will be reasonable buy opportunities for the next wave. 👉 Reasonable Strategy: Sell reaction at 4,281 USD when reversal signals appear. Buy back at 4,186 – 4,152 – 4,130 USD when confirmation signals appear.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by CaptainVincent
The Fundamentals That Could End the Debasement TradeThe “debasement trade” has emerged as one of the key market themes: a strategy based on the loss of value of fiat currencies amid unlimited monetary creation, rising public debt, and the erosion of purchasing power. In this context, investors have turned to so-called “tangible” assets—gold and silver—viewed as safe havens against monetary dilution. But while this narrative has dominated much of the year, several fundamentals could gradually bring it to an end by late 2025. First, the end of the U.S. government shutdown would restore confidence in American fiscal management and reduce the political risk premium. In the same vein, clearer fiscal consolidation and a return to minimum budget discipline could signal that governments are regaining control over the trajectory of deficits and debt. This mere shift in perception could be enough to ease fears of U.S. dollar “debasement.” At the same time, if central banks maintain or raise real interest rates, fiat currencies would regain competitiveness against non-productive assets. Positive real yields restore the value of cash and reduce the appeal of inflation hedges. This is even more true if inflation expectations decline: less fear of price surges means less need to seek protection through gold or other precious metals. A stable or stronger dollar would reinforce this dynamic—it is, in fact, the most important factor signaling the end of the debasement trade. Historically, a firm greenback weighs on precious metals while signaling renewed confidence in monetary stability. At the same time, a better global growth environment could redirect capital toward risk assets at the expense of “hard assets.” Another key element is the tightening of liquidity conditions. Less money in circulation and less speculative excess would dry up flows into safe-haven assets. Similarly, a geopolitical de-escalation would reduce demand for protective values. If, in parallel, institutions reallocate toward bonds—attracted by once again appealing yields—that would mark the end of the great flight from the fiat system. Finally, the real turning point will come with the return of political and monetary credibility. When markets once again perceive authorities as capable of managing debt, inflation, and growth without resorting to the printing press, the engine of the debasement trade will naturally shut down. Once confidence is restored, the risk premium on tangible assets will decline, placing the dollar, real yields, and macroeconomic discipline back at the center of the game. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. 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FX_IDC:XAUUSDEducation
by Swissquote
Gold | Wave 4 Unfolding Amid Real Yield RepricingGold’s surge to fresh highs is now unwinding into what looks like a textbook wave 4 correction. The move has traders panicking over desks — but beneath the noise, this is a repricing of real yields, not necessarily a structural top. Technical Lens: After a vertical wave 3 extension, spot gold has now pulled back toward the 23.6–38.2% retracement zone, a typical digestion phase before trend resumption. Structurally, the broader sequence still tracks as a 5-wave advance from the August breakout, implying this phase could be consolidation rather than reversal. Scenarios: If inflation undershoots expectations and real yields rise, gold could remain capped within this corrective band as investors rotate toward yield-bearing assets. If inflation proves sticky or the pace of disinflation slows, real yields compress again — an environment that continues to justify gold being “at these levels” or even pushing higher as the market re-prices duration risk. Catalysts: Upcoming US CPI inflation data, Treasury auctions, and real yield spreads (TIPS vs. nominal) will shape the next leg. Takeaway: This looks like wave 4 digestion — not capitulation. Unless inflation truly undershoots, gold’s macro foundation remains intact.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AlchemyMarkets
Gold May Form a Bull Trap Before Another DropUnder the current strong bearish sentiment, gold has filled the gap around 4019 and touched the MA20 support on the 1D chart, followed by a strong rebound of over $150. After reaching the MA10 near 4160, the price pulled back again and is now trading below 4100. On the 4H chart, the downtrend remains intact, with psychological support around the MA30 (near 3910). If bearish momentum continues during the U.S. session, a move toward this support level cannot be ruled out. Personally, I expect gold to first test resistance around 4180–4200 or even 4250, forming a potential bull trap before another leg down. However, if supported by positive news and strong volume, the market could reverse and push prices back above 4300. Moreover, if the price truly dips into the 3950–3910 range, I see it as a great opportunity for long positions — one I definitely won’t miss! Of course, this is just my personal view. Ultimately, we should always follow the actual price action and trade cautiously, managing risk wisely.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by China_MsWang
XAUUSD (Gold) - Long Idea from Liquidity (LIQ) ZoneStrategy: Liquidity / Demand Zone The chart shows a strong bullish market structure, confirmed by the previous "Break of Structure" (BoS). The price is currently pulling back into a key area of interest, which is marked as a "LIQ" (Liquidity) zone. This area is likely a demand zone or an order block where we can expect a bullish reversal. This trade idea is to buy (go long) as the price taps into this liquidity zone. Trade Parameters: Direction: Long (Buy) Entry: $4,245.867 Stop Loss (SL): $4,234.520 Take Profit (TP): $4,379.504 Risk/Reward Ratio: This setup offers an exceptional Risk/Reward ratio of approximately 1:12 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade at your own risk.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SyferXOfficial
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold attempted another run-up yesterday but failed to sustain momentum, leading to a renewed pullback this session. Price is currently trading around 4259, slipping below the MA50 as short-term momentum softens after repeated rejections from the 4362 resistance zone. Despite the rejection the broader trend remains bullish above the MA200, though short-term momentum has clearly weakened. If buyers manage to reclaim 4321, gold could reattempt the upside toward 4362 and 4406. However, a break below 4,279 would expose the First Reaction Zone (4,227–4,192), where buyers will likely defend to maintain trend structure. A deeper breakdown beneath this area could open the way toward 4,151–4,117 near the MA200. 📌 Key levels to watch: Resistance: 4321 4362 4406 Support: 4279 4227 4192 4151 4117 🔎 Fundamental focus: The U.S. government shutdown continues to pressure risk sentiment, with political negotiations showing little progress. Several key data releases this week, including PMI and durable goods orders, remain uncertain due to the data blackout, adding to market caution.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by azgoldtrader
Bullish Bias Toward $4,400+🌍 Fundamental Overview Gold is trading around $4,135–$4,155/oz, staying firm despite mild USD recovery. Friday’s U.S. data (Michigan Consumer Sentiment, inflation expectations) came slightly higher, but Fed cut expectations remain unchanged — markets still price 99% chance of a rate cut in October. Geopolitical backdrop remains tense — Middle East concerns, ongoing U.S.–China trade friction, and soft global growth outlook keep gold demand resilient. ETF inflows show renewed interest; central banks (China, Turkey, India) continue accumulating. Short-term: Profit-taking possible early this week; medium-term trend remains bullish toward $4,300+. 📊 Technical Overview Current Price Range: $4,135 – $4,155 Support Zones: $4,120 (minor intraday support) $4,080 (major short-term floor) $4,050 (psychological & structural support) Resistance Levels: $4,180 $4,200 (key breakout zone) $4,300 (next major upside target) Trend: Bullish consolidation — healthy sideways price action above $4,100 zone. RSI (H4): Resetting from overbought, suggesting space for renewed upside momentum. 🎯 Trading Strategy 1️⃣ Buy Dip Setup Entry: $4,090–$4,120 SL: below $4,050 TP: $4,180 → $4,220 2️⃣ Breakout Buy Entry: above $4,180 (confirmed 1H close) SL: below $4,150 TP: $4,250 → $4,300 3️⃣ Short Scalp (Counter-trend) Entry: $4,180–$4,200 (if rejection appears) SL: above $4,220 TP: $4,120 → $4,080 📌 Bias: Bullish above $4,080 — watch for early-week volatility and liquidity traps.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AthensBySahan
XAUUSD: Strong recovery, will gold continue to make new highs?OANDA:XAUUSD had a significant correction in the trading session at the end of last week, for most of yesterday's trading session we have not seen too strong bullish momentum. However, during the New York Session, gold rose sharply under the push of large cash flows and with the emergence of some unsettling news, typically the fact that China could pay 155% tariffs if there is no agreement before November 1 (President Trump). Looking at the options market in today's trading session, most traders are still apprehensive as the price is trading above the peak of 4350 – 4370 (calculated through the price of CFDs). However, most of the market is involved by longcall contracts, so I assess that in today's trading session, the price will continue to above $4400/ounce. Some key levels that we need to pay attention to in today's trading session: Resistance: , Support: Support: Strong support: Margin Zone support: Fair value gap (FVG): Margin Zone + Strong suport + FVG => This will be a strong support zone in today's trading session Always be patient and wait for the price to reach the support and resistance zones above and get confirmation. Do not place limit orders or enter orders when the price is increasing or decreasing sharply. Take advantage of the above support and resistance zones and trade short-term when the price reacts at these support and resistance zones => Take profit when the price moves from 10 to 20 prices since entering the order at the support and resistance areas. Wait for reactions such as Engulfing candles, Doji,... at the support and resistance zones. Always set stop loss when trading and manage risks closely. Note: Price may spike through support or resistance levels and then reverse. Therefore, it is crucial to patiently wait for the candle to close before entering a trade. Victor Dan @ ZuperView
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ZuperView
SMART MONEY CONCEPT (SMC)📊 Smart Money Concept Breakdown • Clear Confirmations: The chart shows a perfect sequence with ChoCh (Change of Character) followed by a BOS (Break of Structure), clearly marking the shift from bearish to bullish momentum. • Institutional Manipulation: The Fake Out and the Sell-Side Liquidity sweep are textbook moves. Liquidity was taken before the price was pushed upward. • Entry Placement: The BUY at 4,211 was placed right after the rejection and inside a support zone. The SL at 4,156 respects risk while aligning with market structure. • Trade Management: Risk/Reward ratios were properly outlined (R/R 1:2 and 1:3), with a clean TP at 4,322 that was successfully reached after distribution. • Technical Confluence: The setup combines the 1H Order Block, FVG, and support zones seamlessly. The SMA indicator adds further confirmation of the bullish momentum. ✅ This setup is a great example of how institutions operate: manipulation first, BOS confirmation, entry on rejection, and then distribution into the target zone. GOOD JOB TRADERS… ;)
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Fonseca87
Gold corrective pullback supported at 4203The Gold remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend. Support Zone: 4203 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level. A bullish rebound from 4203 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at: 4365 – initial resistance 4420 – psychological and structural level 4450 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart Bearish Scenario: A confirmed break and daily close below 4203 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward: 4160 – minor support 4114– stronger support and potential demand zone Outlook: A bullish bias remains intact while the Gold holds above 4203. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by TradeNation
Gold Price Forecast and Strategy for October 20: Core Trend Judgment: Short-term topping signals have strengthened, marking the start of a deep technical correction. Core Strategy: Prioritize selling on rallies, with counter-trend bounces at key support levels as a secondary approach. I. Key Pivot Levels Core Resistance Zone: 4280 - 4290 USD This area is the previous key neckline and now acts as a strong pressure zone following Friday's sharp decline. It is the optimal defensive and entry area for shorts. Core Support Zone: 4200 - 4220 USD The initial support zone formed after Friday's plunge. A decisive break below this level will confirm the continuation of the downtrend. Ultimate Support Zone: 4170 - 4180 USD The final key defensive line for bulls, coinciding with the low point of Friday's drop. The first touch of this zone is expected to trigger a significant technical rebound. II. Detailed Trading Strategy 1. Primary Strategy: Sell on Rebound Entry Point: When the price rebounds to the 4280-4290 zone and shows signs of weakness (e.g., bearish reversal candlestick patterns like Evening Star, Bearish Engulfing). Stop Loss: Place above 4300 USD (positioned above the key resistance zone). Take Profit Targets: First Target 4230-4220 → Second Target 4200 → Final Target 4180. 2. Secondary Strategy: Buy at Key Support (Counter-trend, Extreme Caution Advised) Entry Point: When the price experiences its first deep pullback to the 4170-4180 zone and shows clear bullish reversal signals (e.g., Hammer, Bullish Engulfing candlestick patterns). Stop Loss: Place below 4160 USD (to exit promptly if key support fails). Take Profit Target: Short-term target 4230-4250 zone. Exit immediately upon reaching the target; trade quickly. III. Analysis and Rationale Technical Turn Bearish: Topping Pattern: A Double Top bearish pattern formed on the 1-hour chart around 4379 USD, triggering a nearly 200-dollar sell-off. Bearish Momentum: The daily chart formed a large bearish candle engulfing the previous bullish one, and the 4-hour chart shows consecutive strong bearish candles, indicating extremely strong selling pressure. Key Level Broken: The price has broken below the previous crucial support zone of 4280-4300, which has now converted into strong resistance. Fundamental Support and Risks: Supportive Factors: High market expectations for Fed rate cuts in October and December, alongside geopolitical risks, provide medium-to-long-term bottom support for gold, limiting the downside. Risk Factors: Any news regarding eased trade tensions, resolution of the US banking crisis, or hawkish comments from the Fed could intensify short-term selling pressure on gold. IV. Risk and Discipline Reminders Expect Volatility: Following historic price swings, market sentiment is highly unstable. The market is prone to reversals and "choppy" action. Ensure light positioning. Strict Stop-Losses: It is mandatory to set unconditional stop-losses to prevent losses from escalating on any single trade. This is especially critical for counter-trend long positions. Follow the Trend: Until the price convincingly breaks above and holds steady at 4300 USD, "selling short on rebounds" is the predominant theme. Buying the bounce is a counter-trend operation; it requires strict position control and a quick exit strategy. Summary: Technical bearish signals are clear. Traders are advised to patiently wait for the price to rebound into the 4280-4290 resistance zone to establish short positions, offering the best risk-reward ratio. Long positions should only be considered as a short-term bounce strategy at the 4170-4180 strong support zone and require extreme caution.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Aureus_Analytics