GOLD PRICE ANALYSIS – OCT 16, 2025Technical Overview (1H Chart)
Gold continues its strong bullish trajectory within the rising channel, with price currently hovering near $4,237/oz after testing the upper boundary of the trendline. The structure remains supported by a confluence of dynamic EMAs (20/50/100/200), confirming sustained buying pressure.
Key Support Levels:
$4,120 – $4,130: Short-term EMA cluster support zone
$4,048: Mid-term bullish defense area
$3,930 – $3,870: Major swing supports if deeper correction occurs
Key Resistance Zone:
$4,270 – $4,300: Immediate resistance / potential breakout target
Above this range, next psychological target sits at $4,350
Trading Outlook:
Price action suggests a potential minor retracement toward the EMA20/EMA50 area before resuming the next impulse leg upward. As long as price holds above $4,120, the overall structure favors continuation of the uptrend.
Strategy for Today:
Buy on dips near 4,180–4,120
Stop Loss: below 4,048
Take Profit: 4,270 – 4,300 – 4,350
Momentum and RSI remain supportive of further upside after short-term consolidation.
Market Sentiment:
The bullish bias stays dominant as gold benefits from risk-off sentiment and continued demand for safe-haven assets. Any pullback is viewed as a healthy correction within the ongoing bullish channel.
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Trade ideas
Gold: From Bullish to Neutral. Target 4292ish.The last time I talk about Gold is on 28th Aug where I expect the break out to the upside. Since then, Gold has moved up by more than 800 points, a massive 20+% increase in less than 2 months. Where does this lead us? Should we continue to hold Gold? Should we go short?
My assessment is that we should start to move from bullish on Gold to be more neutral. Gold is like a rocket moving up and trying to short it will be akin to trying to stop a rocket or catch a falling knife in reverse.
Over here, I explain how I derive the target of $4292-3 using Fibonacci extension where Wave3 = 2.618xWave1. However, take note that this is not a call for short for we don't know how far Gold may go. It is a call to be cautious and take on a more neutral stance and maybe look out for better risk-reward opportunities.
Good luck!
Gold Continues Bullish Trend on Shorter and Higher Timeframes...After a healthy retracement, Gold is once again in a Bullish Trend. On 1H timeframe, it is making Higher Highs and Higher Lows. Very soon, it could make a new All-Time-High.
Let's place a Buy-Stop order for a 1:1 trade and take benefit of this opportunity.
XAUUSD analysis – 1H OB SetupThe overall market structure remains bullish, forming consistent higher highs and higher lows.
Currently, price is showing signs of a controlled pullback after a strong impulsive leg, and the most probable scenario is a retest of the 1H Order Block around 4110–4130.
That zone holds unmitigated buy orders and sits right below local equal lows — a perfect liquidity pocket before continuation.
We’ll wait for price to sweep that area and confirm a new bullish leg through a lower timeframe confirmation (BOS + FVG + OB alignment) before entering longs.
If the zone reacts cleanly, the next target will be the recent highs (around 4270–4300).
Only a clean break below 4100 would invalidate the bullish scenario for now.
📊 ProfitaminFX | Gold, BTC & EUR/USD
📚 Daily setups & educational trades
Gold- IS THE RETRACEMENT OVER?Our analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis.
Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you.
Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
Gold price analysis October 16GOLD UPDATE – The trend is still in favor of the buyers
Gold continues to record new records during the day, showing that buying power is still absolutely dominant. In recent sessions, the simplest strategy – just “BUY” according to the trend – has brought good profits.
At the moment, the most important thing is to wait for the price to adjust to the support zones to establish a new buying position. If you are still trying to “catch the top” of gold, maybe it is time to temporarily remove the Sell button and go with the main trend of the market.
📈 Trading strategy:
BUY Trigger: When a price rejection signal appears at the support zone of 4180 – 4215
Target: Aim for the 4300 mark
XAUUSD NEXT POSSIBLE MOVE Gold is currently trading near a key support zone, an area where buyers have previously shown strong reactions. After a period of correction, price action is indicating buyer accumulation and a potential shift in momentum.
If the price continues to respect this support area and forms a bullish structure (such as a higher low or bullish engulfing candle), it could signal the beginning of a bullish reversal.
Volume and momentum indicators are also hinting at reduced selling pressure and a gradual return of buyer strength.
As long as Gold holds above the support level, the market bias remains bullish, with potential for an upward continuation in the coming sessions.
Traders should wait for clear confirmation from price action before executing buy entries to align with smart money flow.
Risks and opportunities exist at the same time, continue to buyGold Technical Analysis
Daily Resistance: 4200, Support: 3945
4-Hour Resistance: 4220, Support: 4090
1-Hour Resistance: 4220, Support: 4180
Gold prices have already broken through the 4200 mark today, effectively erasing any bearish concerns. Yesterday, I was hoping for a pullback to 4060, offering a better entry point, but the rally was too strong, and the pullback stalled around 4100.
From the current structure, gold has found support at 4180 and 4150. If it stalls there today, you can still buy in. The only caveat is not to set a stop-loss that's too small, but don't cancel it either. Doing so can easily lead to false breakouts, as has been the case with recent large and rapid movements.
Although gold remains in a bull market, as prices continue to rise, sudden and rapid intraday declines like Tuesday's will only become more frequent and more severe. All we can do is continue to follow the upward trend while remaining vigilant and prepared to react to any potential corrections.
Trading today, we continue to prioritize buying on dips, focusing on support levels around 4180-4150.
BUY: near 4180
BUY: near 4150
GOLD – 30m Chart Daily bias Trend : Short-term pullback inside an ascending channel, bullish bias for now
Trade Setup : Buy (Long)
Entry: ~4,261 (near channel support)
Stop-Loss: 4,241 (below recent low/support)
Take-Profit: 4,385 (next major resistance)
Key Zones:
Support: 4,254 (lower boundary of channel)
Supply/Resistance: 4,290–4,320 (may act as partial profit area)
Notes for Traders:
Buy near the lower channel line for better R:R.
Watch price reaction around supply zone; can scale out if needed.
Always respect SL to protect capital.
This content is for educational purposes and trade at your own risk
#XAU/USDT Bullish Reversal from Key Support Zone Targeting 4,3#XAU
The price is moving within a descending channel on the 1-hour frame, adhering well to it, and heading for a strong breakout and retest.
We have a bearish trend on the RSI indicator that is about to be broken and retested, which supports the upward move.
There is a major support area in green at 4150, which represents a strong support point.
We are heading for consolidation above the 100 moving average.
Entry price: 4253
First target: 4294
Second target: 4331
Third target: 4385
Don't forget a simple matter: capital management.
When you reach the first target, save some money and then change your stop-loss order to an entry order.
For inquiries, please leave a comment.
Thank you.
GOLD (XAUUSD) SELL SETUPGold has been moving in a strong ascending channel, pushing to all-time highs in an overextended rally. Price is now sitting at channel resistance, showing signs of rejection.
🕊️ With the Gaza war ending, safe-haven demand is cooling — a bearish sign for gold. A healthy correction is expected after 8 weeks of almost non-stop upside.
🎯 Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 4164
TP2: 4122
TP3: 4093
TP4: 4056
⚠️ If price breaks channel support, we could see deeper downside.
🚫 SL above recent highs
The Fundamentals That Could End the Debasement TradeThe “debasement trade” has emerged as one of the key market themes: a strategy based on the loss of value of fiat currencies amid unlimited monetary creation, rising public debt, and the erosion of purchasing power. In this context, investors have turned to so-called “tangible” assets—gold and silver—viewed as safe havens against monetary dilution.
But while this narrative has dominated much of the year, several fundamentals could gradually bring it to an end by late 2025.
First, the end of the U.S. government shutdown would restore confidence in American fiscal management and reduce the political risk premium. In the same vein, clearer fiscal consolidation and a return to minimum budget discipline could signal that governments are regaining control over the trajectory of deficits and debt. This mere shift in perception could be enough to ease fears of U.S. dollar “debasement.”
At the same time, if central banks maintain or raise real interest rates, fiat currencies would regain competitiveness against non-productive assets. Positive real yields restore the value of cash and reduce the appeal of inflation hedges. This is even more true if inflation expectations decline: less fear of price surges means less need to seek protection through gold or other precious metals.
A stable or stronger dollar would reinforce this dynamic—it is, in fact, the most important factor signaling the end of the debasement trade.
Historically, a firm greenback weighs on precious metals while signaling renewed confidence in monetary stability. At the same time, a better global growth environment could redirect capital toward risk assets at the expense of “hard assets.”
Another key element is the tightening of liquidity conditions. Less money in circulation and less speculative excess would dry up flows into safe-haven assets. Similarly, a geopolitical de-escalation would reduce demand for protective values. If, in parallel, institutions reallocate toward bonds—attracted by once again appealing yields—that would mark the end of the great flight from the fiat system.
Finally, the real turning point will come with the return of political and monetary credibility. When markets once again perceive authorities as capable of managing debt, inflation, and growth without resorting to the printing press, the engine of the debasement trade will naturally shut down. Once confidence is restored, the risk premium on tangible assets will decline, placing the dollar, real yields, and macroeconomic discipline back at the center of the game.
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Gold trading strategy | October 13-14✅ From the 1-hour chart, gold has pulled back from the 4117 high and is currently trading between MA5 and MA10, showing a slowdown in short-term momentum.
The moving average system shows MA5 starting to turn downward, while MA10 and MA20 remain upward, indicating short-term correction pressure but strong medium-term support.
The Bollinger upper band near 4117 is acting as resistance, while the middle band around 4077 serves as the key short-term support. If the price stabilizes above this level, a short-term rebound is likely.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 4115–4120
🟢 Support Levels: 4070–4060
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If gold pulls back to the 4060–4070 zone and holds steady, consider building long positions in batches, targeting 4105–4120.
🔰 If gold faces repeated resistance around 4120–4130 and momentum weakens, consider light short positions, targeting 4085–4070, with a stop loss above 4135.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
Gold: Market led by fearUncertainty brought the price of gold to new all time highest level at Friday's trading session at the level of $4.380. This was the ninth consecutive week of gold gains and almost daily ATHs. Investors agree that such a behaviour of one asset is highly unusual on financial markets, and that correction eventually has to come. One technical analyst found that the similar movement occurred in 1978 with the price of gold, however, the magnitude of the uptrend is now higher. Movements from US equity markets, crypto market and gold market are just screaming that something is not right. And it is not. Uncertainties coming from switch-on-switch-off tariffs, Government which is not functioning, macro data which are not available are all situations which are highly unusual, so investors are seeking a place where to safeguard their funds. For several hundred years in the past, this safe-haven asset was gold, so it is today.
Under such circumstances technical analysis is not quite useful in order to estimate probabilities of future moves. It comes from the fact that this market is currently led by fear, and the level of fear will determine the next level of the price of gold. This market is currently not led by macro data or other relevant fundamentals, where technical analysis can provide relevant estimates. Still, a stronger pullback on Friday showed that the level of fear is slowly coming down. The price closed the week at $4.250, or 1,75% lower. At the same time we have seen some recovery on US equity markets and the crypto market. Is this the start of a major correction in the price of gold? No one knows. The week ahead will show if the level of fear is indeed coming down or it was just a Friday's short break. What is certain is that the correction will eventually come in the future, at the moment when all current uncertainties are settled.
XAU/USD - High volume Control🔶 XAUUSD Trading Card
🔑 Pivot Zone: 3860 - 3880 (Major Demand)
📊 Context: Bullish continuation - ATH discovery | Current 4274
⚠️ Key Levels:
Immediate Support = 4230 - 4240
Lower Support 1 = 4180 - 4200
Lower Support 2 - Strong = 4125 - 4150
Lower Support 3 - Very Strong = 4030 - 4050
────────────────────────────────────
🟢 Bullish Scenario
Bias Flip: Already active - ATH discovery mode
Trigger: Hold above 4230 + continuation momentum
🎯 T1 = 4300 (Projected)
🎯 T2 = 4350 (Projected)
❌ Invalidation: Back below 4230
────────────────────────────────────
🔴 Bearish Scenario
Bias Flip: Clear breach below 4230
Trigger: Close below 4230 + bearish momentum shift
🎯 T1 = 4180 - 4200
🎯 T2 = 4125 - 4150
🎯 T3 = 4030 - 4050
❌ Invalidation: Back above 4240
Lingrid | GOLD Bullish Trend Extension OpportunityOANDA:XAUUSD remains in a strong bullish structure, holding above the confluence zone near 3,940 and respecting the upward trendline. Price action forms higher highs inside the ascending channel, suggesting continuation toward the 4,055–4,100 resistance zone in the mid-term. As long as 3,940 holds as support, the next leg toward the 4055 target remains valid. Broader trend momentum confirms sustained buying pressure aligned with the overall bullish trajectory.
⚠️ Risks:
A close below 3,940 could invalidate the bullish continuation setup.
Sudden shifts in U.S. economic data or Treasury yields may strengthen the dollar.
Market reaction to inflation-related announcements could trigger short-term volatility.
If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
FOMO - The Urge That Costs You TwiceNOTE: This is a post on Mindset and emotion. It is NOT a Trade idea or strategy designed to make you money. I’m posting this to help you preserve your capital, energy and will so you can execute your own trading system with calm, patience and confidence.
So here we are, Gold kissing 4000.
It’s been on a tear and hasn’t looked back.
Relentless. Higher, higher, higher.
Now imagine being the trader who stalked this setup… but missed the entry.
The setup was clean. The context made sense.
But you hesitated. You wanted confirmation.
And now it’s gone.
At first, you tell yourself you’re fine.
You’ll wait for the pullback.
But the longer you watch, the more unsettled you become.
Your legs bounce.
Your breath shortens.
Price rips higher without you.
And the thought slips in…
“I can’t miss this.”
Before you know it, your hand hovers over the button
ready to break your own rules just to feel part of the move.
What’s really happening inside you:
Thoughts:
“Argghh… I knew it. Ok, it’s moving. Wait for the pullback.”
“Urgh… another headline, it keeps moving up… everyone else is in.”
“It’s not pulling back. This is the move I’ve been waiting for. Missing out is worse than losing.”
“I’ll never forgive myself if I just watch this go without me.”
Feelings: Restlessness. Envy. Urgency.
Behaviours: Dropping timeframes, chasing moves, flipping charts, forcing setups.
Body cues: Buzzing energy in chest or stomach, jittery hands, shallow breath, can’t sit still.
The Trigger:
Watching a move take off without you, especially after hesitation stopped you last time. Watching price rise without a look back. Everyone's talking about it. It’s on the newsfeed. ‘Record highs’. ‘Biggest day ever’.
Why it feels so powerful:
FOMO isn’t about the market. it’s about survival wiring.
Your brain equates “missing out” with exclusion, being left out.
So urgency feels safer than patience.
Acting now, even without an edge, feels like relief, because at least you’re doing something.
The real cost:
FOMO makes you chase highs and sell lows.
It costs you twice.
Once when you chase the move and lose.
And again when you lose faith in your own process.
Each time you act on urgency, you train your nervous system to link tension with execution.
That’s how confidence quietly drains away.
How to shift it:
Pause & name it: say out loud, “This is FOMO.” Awareness loosens its grip.
Breathe into it: slow your breath until your body settles. Teach your system that calm not chaos precedes execution.
Anchor: remind yourself the market is infinite. “It takes a second to wreck it… it takes time to build.” Beastie Boys
Reset: ask, “If I hadn’t seen that move, would I still take this setup?” If not, stand down.
Missing a move hurts but chasing it turns one mistake into two.
Discipline pays you back; impulse never does.
The market will always offer another opportunity.
Your edge is keeping your nerve, calm and self-control until it does.
By the way, for those that missed the Non Farm post last week. Turns out that Non Farm has been re-scheduled for this Friday... (but they can always reschedule again). Check this link out for anyone lining up for Non Farm this week.
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Not a bad day although very quiet due to the ranging. We managed to hit the region we wanted over the Asia session and then ended up waiting all day for our EXC target to complete to end the day.
We can now see a little pressure downside but not enough to call it a reversal while we're also now between an order region 4058 resistance and 4033 support. For that reason, we'll plot the path we're looking for but any attempts will require tight stops, just in case we get a break of 4058 which will then void the move.
As always, trade safe.
KOG