Gold Reached Its Final Peak? A 50-Year Cycle May End Here🟡 Gold Macro Structure — The End of a 50-Year Bullish Epoch
Symbol: XAU/USD (OANDA Data)
Timeframe: 1M (Monthly Candles)
Published by: Ping Tech Academy
🕰️ The Story of Gold — Between Faith, Fear, and Cycles
Gold has never been just a commodity — it is the mirror of human belief in value.
When trust in fiat weakens, gold rises; when confidence returns, it retreats.
Since the dollar was detached from gold in December 1971, every cycle has reflected the rhythm of fear and faith across the global economy.
Now, after more than half a century of expansion, gold stands at what appears to be the final chapter of its generational bull cycle.
🔹 Historical Context (1971–2009)
From December 1st, 1971, gold traded within a long-term ascending channel,
with its lower boundary near $43.50 and its upper boundary reaching around $1,195.40.
That upper structure was broken and retested on November 2nd, 2009,
marking the beginning of a new macro bullish channel that defined the modern era of gold movement.
🔹 The Second Channel (2005–2024)
The base of the current macro structure was established on July 1st, 2005, at $417.90,
while its top expanded to around $2,663.50, reached on September 2nd, 2024.
This high was broken and retested — a textbook continuation signal —
leading gold to its recent peak near $4,165 (October 2025).
⚠️ Critical Resistance Zone — Structural Completion
Based on price symmetry and long-term channel geometry,
gold has reached its final structural target of the 50-year ascending cycle:
📍 $4,166.66 (OANDA XAU/USD)
Allowing for a technical deviation, the potential reversal range stands between:
📉 $4,166.66 – $4,294.43
This area represents a major exhaustion zone,
likely to act as the macro top of the cycle before a multi-year correction begins.
🧭 Long-Term Downside Targets (Macro Correction Path)
If the market confirms rejection within the 4.16–4.29k range,
the following structural targets may unfold sequentially:
$3,940
$3,730
$3,415
$3,072
$2,791 → Key Level
$2,535 → Critical Foundation Zone
🔹 This region is viewed as the potential final structural base for gold —
a level where a new long-term accumulation phase could begin.
However, breaking below $2,535 would indicate the start of a deep macro revaluation,
potentially driving gold to unexpectedly low levels, but such a move would likely
require a period of global economic stability and geopolitical peace —
a rare alignment that historically marks the end of systemic fear cycles.
$2,438
$2,227
$2,089 → Final macro target if bearish continuation persists
🧠 Market Psychology & Cyclic Behavior
Each gold supercycle follows a familiar psychological rhythm:
Accumulation (Smart Money Phase):
Institutions accumulate quietly when sentiment is exhausted and prices are undervalued.
Expansion (Public Awareness):
Momentum builds; narratives like inflation, rate cuts, or war become surface-level catalysts.
Euphoria (Public Participation):
Retail investors flood in at new highs, while institutions distribute positions into strength.
Distribution → Correction:
Price weakens, volatility expands, optimism fades — the new cycle begins where fear returns.
Gold currently displays late-euphoria characteristics,
suggesting the distribution phase of the macro cycle is well underway.
🧩 Conclusion
Gold appears to be completing a 50-year structural expansion that began in 1971 —
a cycle that reshaped global perceptions of value.
While minor overshoots beyond $4,294 remain possible,
the risk-to-reward profile now favors defensive or profit-taking strategies.
A multi-year corrective phase is expected before a new generational accumulation begins.
⚖️ Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only
and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
All price levels and projections are based on historical modeling and macro-technical analysis.
Financial markets involve risk — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Always conduct independent analysis or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
📘 Ping Tech Academy
“Trade Smart. Trade Fearless.”
© 2025 – All Rights Reserved.
Trade ideas
GOLDPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message.
Enjoy Trading ;)
Gold squeeze.. breakout pending. We are currently seeing gold getting squeezed in this ascending wedge. A break either way could see impressive moves.. ill be waiting for confirmation on a breakout trade.
If we break down corrections as we have see recently can be quick but large.
We we break up its more of a steady move but fairly consistent.
Recently we have only made higher lows, ill be looking for a change of character in price action where we get a lower low, a pullback up and then a break below that new lower low.
Precision Scalp: Trading the #XAUUSD Bounce in Buy Zone
Price is entering a predefined high-probability BUY ZONE on the 15M chart. Our execution is precise: we await a confirmed bullish rejection signal on the 1M or 5M chart for entry.
This is a HIGH-RISK scalp, demanding strict discipline.
Levels to Watch:
· Trade Trigger: Bullish confirmation on lower TF
· Key Level: ~4230
Rule of thumb: Stay out of the market when Trump's awake.
Interested in our live trades? Join our copytrading group.
#XAUUSD #Gold #Scalping #TradingSetup #RiskManagement #Forex #TradingView
GOLD PRICE ANALYSIS – OCT 16, 2025Technical Overview (1H Chart)
Gold continues its strong bullish trajectory within the rising channel, with price currently hovering near $4,237/oz after testing the upper boundary of the trendline. The structure remains supported by a confluence of dynamic EMAs (20/50/100/200), confirming sustained buying pressure.
Key Support Levels:
$4,120 – $4,130: Short-term EMA cluster support zone
$4,048: Mid-term bullish defense area
$3,930 – $3,870: Major swing supports if deeper correction occurs
Key Resistance Zone:
$4,270 – $4,300: Immediate resistance / potential breakout target
Above this range, next psychological target sits at $4,350
Trading Outlook:
Price action suggests a potential minor retracement toward the EMA20/EMA50 area before resuming the next impulse leg upward. As long as price holds above $4,120, the overall structure favors continuation of the uptrend.
Strategy for Today:
Buy on dips near 4,180–4,120
Stop Loss: below 4,048
Take Profit: 4,270 – 4,300 – 4,350
Momentum and RSI remain supportive of further upside after short-term consolidation.
Market Sentiment:
The bullish bias stays dominant as gold benefits from risk-off sentiment and continued demand for safe-haven assets. Any pullback is viewed as a healthy correction within the ongoing bullish channel.
- Keep this analysis saved if you find it helpful, and follow for more daily gold trading strategies based on price structure and institutional footprints.
Gold: From Bullish to Neutral. Target 4292ish.The last time I talk about Gold is on 28th Aug where I expect the break out to the upside. Since then, Gold has moved up by more than 800 points, a massive 20+% increase in less than 2 months. Where does this lead us? Should we continue to hold Gold? Should we go short?
My assessment is that we should start to move from bullish on Gold to be more neutral. Gold is like a rocket moving up and trying to short it will be akin to trying to stop a rocket or catch a falling knife in reverse.
Over here, I explain how I derive the target of $4292-3 using Fibonacci extension where Wave3 = 2.618xWave1. However, take note that this is not a call for short for we don't know how far Gold may go. It is a call to be cautious and take on a more neutral stance and maybe look out for better risk-reward opportunities.
Good luck!
Gold Continues Bullish Trend on Shorter and Higher Timeframes...After a healthy retracement, Gold is once again in a Bullish Trend. On 1H timeframe, it is making Higher Highs and Higher Lows. Very soon, it could make a new All-Time-High.
Let's place a Buy-Stop order for a 1:1 trade and take benefit of this opportunity.
Lingrid | GOLD Bullish Trend Extension OpportunityOANDA:XAUUSD remains in a strong bullish structure, holding above the confluence zone near 3,940 and respecting the upward trendline. Price action forms higher highs inside the ascending channel, suggesting continuation toward the 4,055–4,100 resistance zone in the mid-term. As long as 3,940 holds as support, the next leg toward the 4055 target remains valid. Broader trend momentum confirms sustained buying pressure aligned with the overall bullish trajectory.
⚠️ Risks:
A close below 3,940 could invalidate the bullish continuation setup.
Sudden shifts in U.S. economic data or Treasury yields may strengthen the dollar.
Market reaction to inflation-related announcements could trigger short-term volatility.
If this idea resonates with you or you have your own opinion, traders, hit the comments. I’m excited to read your thoughts!
Gold's Historic Rally: Why It HappenedGold approaches $4,500 per ounce for the first time in history. Up more than 50% in less than a year. Everyone's asking the same question: Is this a historic breakout, or the setup for a massive crash?
The answer requires looking at three things: what brought us here, where we are technically, and what could go wrong.
PART 1: THE MACRO STORY
Gold doesn't just rally because people are "scared." It rallies because of structural shifts in how the world's largest institutions view money, risk, and trust.
Central Banks Are Buying Gold at Record Pace
Here's a number that should get your attention: Central banks bought 1,045 tons of gold in 2024. That's the second-highest annual total on record.
In 2025, the buying hasn't slowed down. Poland alone has accumulated 67 tons year-to-date. Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, and others are following suit.
But here's what's really happening: This isn't about inflation hedging. If it were, Western central banks (US, Europe) would be buying too. They're not. Instead, emerging market central banks are diversifying away from the dollar.
Why? Because they watched what happened in 2022 when the US froze Russian reserves. When you hold dollar-denominated assets, they can be weaponized. Gold can't be sanctioned. Gold can't be frozen.
Central banks don't panic sell on a 5% dip. When they buy, they hold. This creates a structural price floor. Every pullback gets accumulated.
What this means: Central bank buying is the foundation of this rally, not a temporary catalyst.
The Federal Reserve is Cutting Interest Rates
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a level of certainty that the Fed would cut rates in October 2025, with markets pricing in another cut in December this year.
When interest rates fall, something important happens to gold: its "opportunity cost" decreases.
Here's the simple version: Gold pays no interest. So when bonds also pay almost nothing (after inflation), holding gold looks pretty reasonable. But when real yields are high, bonds look better and gold looks worse.
Right now, the market is pricing in lower real yields ahead. That's bullish for gold. If the Fed doesn't cut as much as the market expects, that changes everything.
What this means: Rate cuts fuel the rally.
Geopolitical Instability & Currency Debasement
Global tensions remain elevated: Middle East instability, US-China friction, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. But that's not the real driver here.
The real driver is the loss of faith in government money.
Gold is at an all-time high, not just in US dollars. It's also hitting all-time highs in euros, yen, and yuan. This isn't a dollar story. This is a global reassessment of what "money" actually means.
Meanwhile, the US national debt is over $35 trillion. Debt-to-GDP is at World War II levels. Other countries (Japan, Europe) are in similar situations, printing money and running massive deficits.
When governments print excessively, investors need a hedge. Gold can't be printed.
What this means: As long as deficits remain high and geopolitical chaos persists, gold has structural demand that goes beyond cycles.
The Bottom Line
Three powerful forces are all pushing in the same direction:
Central banks structurally accumulating gold (de-dollarization)
The Fed cutting rates (lower real yields = gold support)
Global monetary instability (currency debasement = safe-haven bid)
This combination hasn't existed in most traders' lifetimes. That's why this rally feels different. And why it's lasted this long.
Gold price analysis October 16GOLD UPDATE – The trend is still in favor of the buyers
Gold continues to record new records during the day, showing that buying power is still absolutely dominant. In recent sessions, the simplest strategy – just “BUY” according to the trend – has brought good profits.
At the moment, the most important thing is to wait for the price to adjust to the support zones to establish a new buying position. If you are still trying to “catch the top” of gold, maybe it is time to temporarily remove the Sell button and go with the main trend of the market.
📈 Trading strategy:
BUY Trigger: When a price rejection signal appears at the support zone of 4180 – 4215
Target: Aim for the 4300 mark
XAUUSD NEXT POSSIBLE MOVE Gold is currently trading near a key support zone, an area where buyers have previously shown strong reactions. After a period of correction, price action is indicating buyer accumulation and a potential shift in momentum.
If the price continues to respect this support area and forms a bullish structure (such as a higher low or bullish engulfing candle), it could signal the beginning of a bullish reversal.
Volume and momentum indicators are also hinting at reduced selling pressure and a gradual return of buyer strength.
As long as Gold holds above the support level, the market bias remains bullish, with potential for an upward continuation in the coming sessions.
Traders should wait for clear confirmation from price action before executing buy entries to align with smart money flow.
Risks and opportunities exist at the same time, continue to buyGold Technical Analysis
Daily Resistance: 4200, Support: 3945
4-Hour Resistance: 4220, Support: 4090
1-Hour Resistance: 4220, Support: 4180
Gold prices have already broken through the 4200 mark today, effectively erasing any bearish concerns. Yesterday, I was hoping for a pullback to 4060, offering a better entry point, but the rally was too strong, and the pullback stalled around 4100.
From the current structure, gold has found support at 4180 and 4150. If it stalls there today, you can still buy in. The only caveat is not to set a stop-loss that's too small, but don't cancel it either. Doing so can easily lead to false breakouts, as has been the case with recent large and rapid movements.
Although gold remains in a bull market, as prices continue to rise, sudden and rapid intraday declines like Tuesday's will only become more frequent and more severe. All we can do is continue to follow the upward trend while remaining vigilant and prepared to react to any potential corrections.
Trading today, we continue to prioritize buying on dips, focusing on support levels around 4180-4150.
BUY: near 4180
BUY: near 4150
Will Gold buys continue for this week? TVC:GOLD price has dropped to $4 180 support level then looks like it might be going for a rest for the $4290. But question is will the $4056 level hold for bulls or will it break that level? What are your predictions for Gold guys? lemme know on the comment session.
GOLD (XAUUSD) SELL SETUPGold has been moving in a strong ascending channel, pushing to all-time highs in an overextended rally. Price is now sitting at channel resistance, showing signs of rejection.
🕊️ With the Gaza war ending, safe-haven demand is cooling — a bearish sign for gold. A healthy correction is expected after 8 weeks of almost non-stop upside.
🎯 Take Profit Levels:
TP1: 4164
TP2: 4122
TP3: 4093
TP4: 4056
⚠️ If price breaks channel support, we could see deeper downside.
🚫 SL above recent highs
The Fundamentals That Could End the Debasement TradeThe “debasement trade” has emerged as one of the key market themes: a strategy based on the loss of value of fiat currencies amid unlimited monetary creation, rising public debt, and the erosion of purchasing power. In this context, investors have turned to so-called “tangible” assets—gold and silver—viewed as safe havens against monetary dilution.
But while this narrative has dominated much of the year, several fundamentals could gradually bring it to an end by late 2025.
First, the end of the U.S. government shutdown would restore confidence in American fiscal management and reduce the political risk premium. In the same vein, clearer fiscal consolidation and a return to minimum budget discipline could signal that governments are regaining control over the trajectory of deficits and debt. This mere shift in perception could be enough to ease fears of U.S. dollar “debasement.”
At the same time, if central banks maintain or raise real interest rates, fiat currencies would regain competitiveness against non-productive assets. Positive real yields restore the value of cash and reduce the appeal of inflation hedges. This is even more true if inflation expectations decline: less fear of price surges means less need to seek protection through gold or other precious metals.
A stable or stronger dollar would reinforce this dynamic—it is, in fact, the most important factor signaling the end of the debasement trade.
Historically, a firm greenback weighs on precious metals while signaling renewed confidence in monetary stability. At the same time, a better global growth environment could redirect capital toward risk assets at the expense of “hard assets.”
Another key element is the tightening of liquidity conditions. Less money in circulation and less speculative excess would dry up flows into safe-haven assets. Similarly, a geopolitical de-escalation would reduce demand for protective values. If, in parallel, institutions reallocate toward bonds—attracted by once again appealing yields—that would mark the end of the great flight from the fiat system.
Finally, the real turning point will come with the return of political and monetary credibility. When markets once again perceive authorities as capable of managing debt, inflation, and growth without resorting to the printing press, the engine of the debasement trade will naturally shut down. Once confidence is restored, the risk premium on tangible assets will decline, placing the dollar, real yields, and macroeconomic discipline back at the center of the game.
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Gold trading strategy | October 13-14✅ From the 1-hour chart, gold has pulled back from the 4117 high and is currently trading between MA5 and MA10, showing a slowdown in short-term momentum.
The moving average system shows MA5 starting to turn downward, while MA10 and MA20 remain upward, indicating short-term correction pressure but strong medium-term support.
The Bollinger upper band near 4117 is acting as resistance, while the middle band around 4077 serves as the key short-term support. If the price stabilizes above this level, a short-term rebound is likely.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 4115–4120
🟢 Support Levels: 4070–4060
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If gold pulls back to the 4060–4070 zone and holds steady, consider building long positions in batches, targeting 4105–4120.
🔰 If gold faces repeated resistance around 4120–4130 and momentum weakens, consider light short positions, targeting 4085–4070, with a stop loss above 4135.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
XAU/USD - High volume Control🔶 XAUUSD Trading Card
🔑 Pivot Zone: 3860 - 3880 (Major Demand)
📊 Context: Bullish continuation - ATH discovery | Current 4274
⚠️ Key Levels:
Immediate Support = 4230 - 4240
Lower Support 1 = 4180 - 4200
Lower Support 2 - Strong = 4125 - 4150
Lower Support 3 - Very Strong = 4030 - 4050
────────────────────────────────────
🟢 Bullish Scenario
Bias Flip: Already active - ATH discovery mode
Trigger: Hold above 4230 + continuation momentum
🎯 T1 = 4300 (Projected)
🎯 T2 = 4350 (Projected)
❌ Invalidation: Back below 4230
────────────────────────────────────
🔴 Bearish Scenario
Bias Flip: Clear breach below 4230
Trigger: Close below 4230 + bearish momentum shift
🎯 T1 = 4180 - 4200
🎯 T2 = 4125 - 4150
🎯 T3 = 4030 - 4050
❌ Invalidation: Back above 4240
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Not a bad day although very quiet due to the ranging. We managed to hit the region we wanted over the Asia session and then ended up waiting all day for our EXC target to complete to end the day.
We can now see a little pressure downside but not enough to call it a reversal while we're also now between an order region 4058 resistance and 4033 support. For that reason, we'll plot the path we're looking for but any attempts will require tight stops, just in case we get a break of 4058 which will then void the move.
As always, trade safe.
KOG