GOLD → Retest 3400. Readiness for a breakthroughFX:XAUUSD is "consolidating" creeping up on resistance, which generally increases the chances of a breakout, but the initial resistance test may end in a pullback. However, there is news ahead that could trigger one of two scenarios...
At the moment, gold is testing $3,400, but is ready for a correction pending new data from the US. However, further decline may be limited for the following reasons: Weak dollar: The probability of a Fed rate cut in September is estimated at 90%. Trump-Fed conflict: Pressure on Fed Chair Lisa Cook undermines confidence in the dollar. Trade wars: New US tariffs (on India) and retaliatory measures (Mexico, Canada against China) increase demand for "safe havens"
What is important: Political uncertainty and soft rhetoric of the Fed continue to play in favor of gold. Any attempts to reduce will be supported by buyers. It is also worth paying attention to the GDP and Initial Jobless Claims, which will be published today at 12:30 GMT.
Resistance levels: 3405, 3420, 3433
Support levels: 3386, 3373, 3369
Technically, the situation is ambiguous and everything depends on the reaction to 3405 and further news. Weakening of the fundamental background may lead to consolidation or correction to 3373 - 3369. However, if traders feel support, then the retest of 3405 may end with a small consolidation around the level and subsequent breakout and growth to the specified targets (I am more inclined to this scenario based on the above situation)
Best regards, R. Linda!
GOLDMINI trade ideas
How to Read Candlestick Like a Pro Hello everyone, it’s great to see you again.
In the previous analysis, we explored bullish and bearish candlestick patterns. So apart from patterns that show us the next trend, is there anything else that can help us predict future movements?
The answer is yes—it’s the signals from Japanese candlesticks, the exact type of candles we use in trading. In this lesson, I’ll talk about bullish candlesticks. Let’s get started!
1. Hammer Candle:
-Characteristics: A candle with a small body, a lower shadow at least twice the length of the body, and a very short or nonexistent upper shadow.
-Meaning: Indicates weakening selling pressure and the beginning of buying dominance, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
2. Dragonfly Doji:
-Characteristics: A very small or nonexistent body, a long lower shadow, and no or very short upper shadow.
-Position: Usually appears after a strong downtrend or at a support zone.
-Meaning: Suggests selling pressure has weakened, buyers are stepping in, and a bullish reversal may be forming.
3. Bullish Engulfing:
-Characteristics: A two-candle pattern, with a small bearish candle followed by a large bullish candle that completely engulfs the previous one.
-Position: Often seen after a strong downtrend or at major support levels.
-Meaning: Shows weakening selling pressure and strong buying momentum, signaling a potential bullish reversal.
4. Piercing Pattern:
-Characteristics : A long bearish candle followed by a bullish candle that opens below the prior close but closes above 50% of the bearish candle.
-Meaning: Indicates selling pressure has eased and buying momentum is returning.
5. Bullish Harami:
-Characteristics: A large bearish candle followed by a small bullish candle completely contained within the previous candle’s body, forming a “mother and child” pattern.
-Meaning: Suggests weakening selling pressure and the gradual return of buying power.
6. Morning Star:
-Characteristics: A three-candle pattern with a large bearish candle, followed by a small indecisive candle, and then a large bullish candle closing above 50% of the first bearish candle.
-Meaning: A strong reversal signal, showing indecision on the second candle and buyer dominance on the third.
7. Three White Soldiers:
-Characteristics: Three consecutive bullish candles, each opening within the prior candle’s body and closing higher.
-Meaning: Indicates the continuation of an uptrend.
These are some of the most popular candlestick patterns trusted by many traders. Don’t forget to take notes and practice using them often—you’ll surely become an expert.
In the next part, I’ll share about reversal and bearish patterns. Please hit like on this post to let me know you’ve understood today’s lesson and are excited for the next one—it’ll be a great motivation for me.
And don’t forget to leave any questions in the comments if you’re still unsure about something.
Good luck!
Gold Update – Correction Complete, Acceleration Ahead?1. Yesterday’s setup
In yesterday’s update, after reviewing Gold in other currencies and concluding the bigger picture remains bullish, I pointed out that on XAUUSD a correction was normal after Friday’s huge rise. I highlighted the 3350 zone as the level where bulls should look for opportunities.
2. What happened overnight
Overnight, Gold delivered exactly that: a violent drop into 3350, immediately followed by an even more violent reversal that erased the move and spiked price up to 3385.
3. Current situation
At the time of writing, XAUUSD is trading around 3375. With the 3350 low now in place, we can reasonably consider the correction complete.
4. Key levels ahead
For a true bullish confirmation, clearing the 3380–3390 zone is essential . If this breakout occurs, I believe the 3400 level won’t act as much of a resistance, but rather as a point of upward acceleration.
5. Trading plan
My bullish view is unchanged. Buying dips against 3350 remains the strategy. For targets, a reasonable objective — if 3380–3390 gives way — is the 3450 zone.
6. Final note
Gold has shown its hand: buyers are here, defending the key level. Now it’s about confirmation above resistance — once that happens, momentum could take us higher, faster. 🚀
Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Gold September Seasonality (Last 10 Years: 2015–2024)Gold is heading into September after a monster run in 2024/25. Unlike the “September slump” you hear about in crypto, gold’s last decade shows mostly mild, tactical moves in September—often driven by real yields, the dollar, and physical demand cycles. Once any early-month wobble plays out, dips have tended to be opportunities within the prevailing trend.
📊 Gold September Seasonality (Last 10 Years: 2015–2024)
Yearly September Returns
Year 📈 Return
2024 🟢 +4.99%
2023 🔴 −3.73%
2022 🔴 −2.32%
2021 🔴 −4.59%
2020 🔴 −3.70%
2019 🔴 −2.55%
2018 🔴 −1.93%
2017 🔴 −1.44%
2016 🟢 +1.02%
2015 🔴 −0.27%
📌 At-a-glance stats (2015–2024)
📉 Mean (10-yr): −1.45%
⚖️ Median: −2.13%
🔴 Red months: 8 out of 10
❌ Worst September: 2021 (−4.59%)
✅ Best September: 2024 (+4.99%)
📅 Recent Performance (last 3 years)
2024: 🟢 +4.99% → strongest September in the set
2023: 🔴 −3.73% → higher real yields weighed on bullion
2022: 🔴 −2.32% → strong USD + aggressive Fed hikes
➡️ Average of last 3 years: 🔴 −0.35%
➡️ Average of last 5 years (2020–2024): 🔴 −1.87%
________________________________________
🔎 Key Insights
• Gentle September bias: Over the last decade, September has skewed slightly negative for gold (mean −1.45%), but the drawdowns are modest compared to risk assets.
• Cycle matters more than calendar: 2020–2023 saw consistent reds as the dollar firmed and real yields rose; 2024 flipped green as rate-cut expectations and central-bank demand underpinned prices.
• Long-term seasonality ≠ last-decade reality: Multi-decade studies often show gold firming into late summer/early autumn (festival/jewelry demand, restocking), but the last 10 years were dominated by policy and yields—diluting that classic pattern.
________________________________________
🚀 Macro & Market Context
• 2019–2020: Trade tensions into COVID—gold corrected in Sep ’19 (−2.6%) and more so in Sep ’20 (−3.7%) after August’s spike to new highs.
• 2021: Fed taper talk + rising real yields → weakest September (−4.6%).
• 2022: King Dollar & rapid hikes → another red September (−2.3%).
• 2023: Real yields kept pressure on bullion (−3.7%).
• 2024: Sentiment flipped on policy expectations and persistent central-bank demand → solid +5.0% September.
________________________________________
🧭 Takeaway
Gold’s September over the last decade has leaned slightly bearish, but mostly in controlled, single-digit moves. The signal isn’t “sell September,” it’s “watch real yields, the USD, and physical flows.” When those line up, the calendar fade loses its bite—as 2024 showed.
Gold’s Mysterious Surge: Breakout or Bull Trap? Gold’s Mysterious Surge: Breakout or Bull Trap?
Earlier today at 2 AM London time, Gold unexpectedly jumped from 3437 to 3489.50, gaining +1.55%—without any clear catalyst.
What’s puzzling is that price broke above a strong resistance zone near 3450, which had held firm for months despite repeated tests. This breakout raises questions.
We could point to familiar geopolitical tensions—Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Gaza, or even Trump-era tariffs—but none of these are new. These stories have been priced in for a long time, and unless they escalate, they shouldn’t drive fresh momentum.
So why is gold rising now?
Could central banks or hedge funds know something we don’t?
If so, this could suggest market manipulation—where insiders act on information before it becomes public.
It’s worth noting: Gold didn’t reach this level even during the Israel–Iran–US conflict, which makes today’s move even more suspicious.
If this is a manipulated rally, gold could continue climbing artificially. But if it’s just a false breakout, we might be looking at a bull trap—with a sharp reversal from the 3500 zone.
Under these uncertain conditions, I prefer to stay out of the market. Trading without clarity is riskier than missing a move.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey everyone,
We closed the week on a strong note with the final target of 3439 being achieved. The move was confirmed by the EMA5 cross and lock above 3416 just like we analysed, providing clear validation of the bullish momentum.
BULLISH TARGET
3390 – ✅ DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3390 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3416 - ✅ DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3416 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3439 - ✅ DONE
BEARISH TARGETS
3365 – ✅ DONE
We will now come back Sunday with a full multi timeframe analysis to prepare for next week’s setups, including updated views on the higher timeframes, EMA5 alignments, and structure expectations going forward.
Thanks again for all your likes, comments, and follows.
Wishing you all a fantastic weekend!!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold Surges Above Expectations, Reaches 5-Week Highs!👋Hello everyone, let’s take a look at OANDA:XAUUSD !
📍Gold continues its impressive rally, even surpassing our previous expectations and reaching the highest levels in 5 weeks. Currently, the bullish momentum is intact, trading around $3412 and surpassing the key psychological level of $3400, gaining over 300 pips from the previous session.
The recent surge in gold is largely driven by concerns over the Fed. Pressure from Trump is fueling speculation that the central bank could cut rates faster and keep them low for a longer period. The CME FedWatch tool shows that investors now expect an 87% chance of a rate cut in September, which is beneficial for gold prices.
📈From a technical perspective: Gold has broken through the $3400 level and closed clearly above the resistance, turning it into new support. The EMA 34 and 89 still favor the bulls, and our strategy will prioritize selling at the top and continuing to buy as long as support holds. The target for the strategy is $3430–3433 USD (D1 resistance).
What do you think💬? How will gold move, and what will the price be at the close today?
✍️ Leave your thoughts in the comments!
Gold will start to decline and then exit from wedgeHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. The market dynamic for XAUUSD has seen a significant evolution, transitioning from a corrective falling wedge into a new bullish phase after a powerful breakout from the lows. This upward trend has since matured and taken the shape of a large upward wedge, a pattern that has been guiding the price higher through a series of rebounds and corrections. This formation, while bullish in the short term, often signals potential trend exhaustion as it approaches its apex. Currently, the price action for XAU is at a critical juncture, pushing up against the upper resistance line of this wedge. The primary working hypothesis is a short scenario, which is predicated on the common bearish resolution of a rising wedge pattern. It is anticipated that the asset will be rejected from this resistance line, signalling that buying momentum is waning. A confirmed failure at this peak would likely trigger a sharp reversal, with enough selling pressure to cause a breakdown below the wedge's ascending support line and the current support level of 3390. This structural failure would validate the bearish thesis and initiate a new downward leg. Therefore, the TP is logically set at 3370 points, representing a prudent first objective for the price to achieve following the anticipated breakdown of the wedge structure. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
GOLD (XAUUSD): Important BreakoutYesterday, gold experienced a significant bullish movement, surpassing a critical daily horizontal resistance cluster.
Currently, we are seeing a retest of this broken level.
There is a high chance of a continued price increase from this point.
The subsequent resistance level is projected at 3432.
GOLD NEXT MOVE (expecting a bearish move)(27-08-2025)Go through the analysis carefully and do trade accordingly.
Anup 'BIAS for the day (27-08-2025)
Current price- 3382
"if Price stays below 3394, then next target is 3372, 3368 and 3352 and above that 3400 ".
-POSSIBILITY-1
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening )
-POSSIBILITY-2
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening)
Best of luck
Never risk more than 1% of principal to follow any position.
Support us by liking and sharing the post.
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPWeekly Chart Update
Structure Intact: Gap Still in Play
As anticipated, we got the 3387 retest again last week and, just like before, price delivered another body close above 3387. This once again confirms the 3482 gap remains active. We saw a strong push upward, but the market still falls short of fully filling the gap leaving it open and in play.
Current Outlook
🔹 Range Still Active
Price continues to oscillate between 3281 and 3387. The structure remains locked inside this zone until a full breakout develops.
🔹 Support Intact at 3281
The gap support remains unbroken, providing buyers with a key defensive base.
🔹 3387 Reclaimed
We got the retest and another body close above, reaffirming that bulls remain committed and the gap toward 3482 is valid.
🔹 Upside Gap Target Still 3482
Price pushed higher, but the gap remains unfilled. As long as 3387 holds, 3482 remains the key upside objective.
Updated Levels to Watch
📉 Support – 3281
The must-hold level to keep the bullish case alive.
📈 Resistance – 3387
Now acting as reclaimed support on closes, with buyers defending this level for higher continuation.
📈 Upside Gap Target – 3482
Still the larger bullish target, with the gap partially filled but not yet closed.
Plan
Structure remains unchanged, but momentum is building. With repeated body closes above 3387, the path toward 3482 is increasingly credible. Until the gap is fully filled, upside remains open—but if 3281 fails, the bullish outlook risks breaking down.
Thanks as always for your support,
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
I'm sorry to be shorting gold.My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 3,427.05 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
If you are a novice trader and cannot achieve perfect profits through trading alone, and always end up losing money, then you must be unable to grasp the perfect buying and selling points! I hope my analysis can help you.
Gold: Bull Run Fading: Is 3335–3350 Barrier the Turning Point?Gold: Bull Run Fading: Is 3335–3350 Barrier the Turning Point?
Gold may be nearing the end of its bullish run. There’s a strong resistance zone between 3335 and 3350, and price action is already showing signs of weakness—even though it still looks slightly bullish on the surface.
Momentum is fading, and based on the chart, there’s a good chance Gold could start pulling back from the current levels, especially around the 3335 zone.
You may watch the analysis for further details!
Thank you!
Gold consolidating near resistance as momentumGold is currently consolidating near resistance as momentum tests the critical 3400 level. Despite this resistance zone, the broader technical outlook remains bullish Fundamentally, a deeper corrective move may be limited due to the following factors:
A weaker U.S. Dollar, which continues to support gold prices Increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September, adding pressure to the Federal Reserve and reducing yields, which typically benefits non-yielding assets like gold From a technical perspective, the bullish structure remains intact. A clean break and sustained move above the 3400 level could open the door to further upside, with the next potential resistance seen around 3425 to 3450.
However, short-term movement will likely depend on incoming U.S. economic data. Traders should watch for price reaction at current levels for signs of continuation or rejection.
You May find more details in the chart,
Trade wisely best of Luck Guys.
Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis.
XAU/USD Technical Outlook – Short-Term Dip, Bigger Upside AheadHello guys.
It is what I see:
We can see that Gold is currently trading around $3,404, consolidating after a strong bullish move inside a rising wedge formation. The wedge has now broken out to the upside, and price action is showing a potential head and shoulders pattern near the top.
Head and Shoulders:
The left shoulder, head, and right shoulder are clearly visible, and the neckline is sitting around the $3,399–$3,400 zone. If price dips and retests this neckline, we could see a short-term bearish move toward the target of the head and shoulders around $3,399. This is a healthy pullback after the recent rally.
Bigger Picture (Wedge):
Even though we might see a short-term correction, the larger wedge breakout suggests continuation to the upside. The measured target of the wedge points toward $3,430, which lines up as the next resistance level.
From Rally to Reversal: Gold Near PRZ, Bears Prepare!As I expected in the previous idea , Gold started to rise with the help of Powell's words and reached my targets(Full Target) .
Gold is currently entering the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and is also moving near the Resistance zone($3,451-$3,406) and Resistance line .
In terms of Elliott Wave theory , Gold appears to be completing microwave 5 of the main wave C . The wave structure is a Zigzag Correction(ABC/5-3-5) .
I expect Gold to drop to at least $3,363 after entering the Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
Second Target: $3,351
Third Target: Support lines
Note: Stop Loss (SL) = $3,416(Worst)
Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 2-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
DeGRAM | GOLD above the channel📊 Technical Analysis
● Gold rebounded strongly from the 3,320–3,330 support zone, breaking above the descending channel and confirming bullish takeover.
● Price is holding above 3,374 support, with momentum aiming toward the 3,401 resistance and potential extension to 3,433 if buyers sustain pressure.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Weakening US dollar amid cooling labor market signals and dovish Fed commentary supports gold’s role as a hedge, with investors rotating back into safe-haven assets.
✨ Summary
Bullish above 3,374; targets 3,401 → 3,433. Invalidation on a close below 3,359.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
XAUUSD Shines Bright: Safe-Haven Demand Lifts GoldHello everyone, what are your thoughts on OANDA:XAUUSD ?
Yesterday, XAUUSD continued its impressive recovery, with the precious metal trading as high as 3,393 USD and still holding around 3,387 at the time of writing.
This sharp rally from near 3,350 up to almost 3,400 is largely driven by the broad sell-off in the U.S. Dollar (USD) and weaker short-term U.S. Treasury yields. These factors boosted safe-haven demand for gold as investors shifted capital into the metal.
This week, the market will focus on the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, due on August 29. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, this data will be crucial in shaping expectations for potential Fed rate cuts, which could further influence gold’s direction.
I remain optimistic on gold’s outlook, with my analysis targeting resistance at 3,400 – 3,415 and support in the 3,350 – 3,360 zone. The short-term trend still favors the upside.
What do you think about XAUUSD? Share your view!
Trading strategy is still BUYGold has reached Target 3320 and continued to see some profit taking from investors in the Asian session. Today's Gold price may move similarly to yesterday with Asia and Europe falling and the US rising. Continue to wait for corrections to Buy is today's intraday strategy. Today's Target 3328. If broken absolutely do not SELL until there is at least confirmation from the H4 candle selling pressure.
BUY at support zones when there is confirmation from buyers entering the market. Attention support zones 3402-3390-3375
Trading Strategy: Sell or Buy?Hello, it’s great to see you again! Let’s take a look at OANDA:XAUUSD today.
By the end of the previous session, gold continued to gain strong upward momentum, with the precious metal climbing as high as $3,399. At the time of writing, the bullish drive remains intact, with price trading around $3,385.
The gold market is witnessing safe-haven demand amid rising concerns over the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, following recent harsh criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell by President Trump.
Currently, traders and investors are eagerly awaiting the PCE Price Index, set to be released on Friday. Personally, I expect this will be positive news for gold.
Technical outlook : The bullish momentum is strong and well-supported. However, price is approaching a critical resistance level at $3,400 while forming a wedge pattern. As the wedge narrows, a breakout becomes more likely. I expect a short-term pullback before the uptrend resumes.
What do you think about XAUUSD? Share your thoughts in the comments!
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
A Piptastic day on the charts with our chart idea playing out as analysed.
After completing our target yesterday at 3390, we stated that ema5 cross and lock above 3390 will follow with a continuation into 3422. We got the lock above 3390 opening 3422, which gave the the push up with the gap still remaining open.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before, each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we’ve shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid-term swings and trends.
The swing ranges give bigger bounces than our weighted levels, that’s the key difference between them.
BULLISH TARGET
3390 – ✅ DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3390 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3422
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3422 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3439
BEARISH TARGETS
3365 – ✅ DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3365 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3347
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3347 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3324
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3324 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3304
3281
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold at Monthly Equal Highs | Weekly + Daily Closing in Focus
Gold is testing a massive rejection block near **3440–3480**, the same zone that has rejected price multiple times before.
📈 Bulls want a breakout to claim monthly equal highs.
📉 Bears are eyeing a liquidity sweep followed by reversal back to key demand zones.
**Bullish Scenario:**
* Strong daily/weekly close above 3480
* Opens path towards fresh highs
**Bearish Scenario:**
* Failure at rejection block
* Drop towards 3375 → 3325 → 3271 targets
**Key Levels:**
* 3480: Rejection Block / Equal Highs (Monthly)
* 3375–3325: Mid Support Zones
* 3271–3153: Deeper Demand
💬 First position holder is decided here — monthly equal highs vs strong rejection zone. Who wins?
GOLD → False breakout at 3500. What next? 3400 or 3600?FX:XAUUSD updates its ATH on the spot market to 3508.5 and forms a false breakout, provoking liquidation and profit-taking. The imbalance in the market is changing, and a deeper correction is possible...
Gold updated its historical maximum above $3500, but faced a correction amid a short-term strengthening of the dollar. The market's attention is focused on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data, which may determine further dynamics.
Key drivers: The probability of a rate cut in September is estimated at 90%, which supports gold. Pressure on the USD continues due to concerns about the independence of the Fed (pressure from Trump) and geopolitics. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict (new strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian territory) is increasing demand for defensive assets.
Ahead of the ISM Manufacturing PMI: Forecast — growth to 49 (but remains in the contraction zone). If the data turns out to be weaker, it will strengthen dollar sales and push gold to new records.
Resistance levels: 3485, 3500
Support levels: 3467.6, 3441, 3423
Technically, gold may enter a longer consolidation or correction. If the bears keep the price below 3490-3485, then in the short term, we can expect a decline to the specified support zones. I do not rule out the possibility of a retest of 3500-3505, but at the moment I do not see the potential for the market to continue growing (in the short term!).
Best regards, R. Linda!