Gold suffers biggest crash since 2013: What’s next for metal?Gold just experienced its worst single-day crash since 2013, plunging over 8% from record highs after forming a double top.
What’s behind this dramatic move, and what’s next for gold?
After a strong rally driven by fiscal and trade uncertainty and delayed US economic data, gold suddenly tumbled to the $4,000s. This sharp drop comes amid technical overextension and ahead of a crucial US CPI report due Friday, with the government shutdown still adding to market uncertainty.
Overextended : Gold was heavily overbought on multiple timeframes (4-hour, daily, weekly, monthly), with a double top and weakening RSI signalling a correction was due.
Profit-taking ahead of CPI : Many traders secured profits before Friday’s CPI report, with consensus expecting inflation to tick up, potentially impacting Fed rate expectations and the US dollar.
Trade developments : De-escalation between the US and China, with Trump and Xi set to meet at APEC, reduced some risk premium that had supported gold.
Support and scenarios : Strong support levels remain, with a possible further downside to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (~$3,945), but a deeper drop to $3,735 is seen as unlikely unless catalysts turn more bearish.
Volatility is back in the gold market! Will this correction turn into a longer consolidation, or is it just a pause before new highs?
Watch the key levels and upcoming CPI data, and remember—trade smart, respect your risk, and cash out when needed!
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Trade ideas
GoldRiders, are you ready for another golden day?Today’s Range as of now: 4,375 – 4,318
Bullish Scenario (Buy):
Entry: Above 4,356
Targets: (4,368–4,372) – (4,379–4,381) – 4,390 – (4,398–4,402) – 4,415 – 4,423 – 4,430 – 4,450
Bearish Scenario (Sell):
Entry: As long as the price remains below 4,330 – selling opportunities prevail.
Targets: (4,322–4,318) – 4,310 – 4,305 – 4,294 – 4,282 – 4,271 – 4,260 – 4,247 – 4,232 – 4,219 – 4,204 – 4,191 – 4,176
GoldRider Notes:
Extreme volatility continues — traders are chasing every move.
Stick to your risk management plan, avoid emotional trading, and always follow GoldRider’s key levels and updates.
Disclaimer:
This analysis reflects my personal market view and is not financial advice or a buy/sell recommendation. Trading in financial markets involves high risk, and all decisions are the trader’s sole responsibility.
Gold- IS THE RETRACEMENT OVER?Our analysis is based on a multi-timeframe top-down approach and fundamental analysis.
Based on our assessment, the price is expected to return to the monthly level.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis may change at any time without notice and is solely intended to assist traders in making independent investment decisions. Please note that this is a prediction, and I have no obligation to act on it, nor should you.
Please support our analysis with a boost or comment!
Gold price analysis October 16GOLD UPDATE – The trend is still in favor of the buyers
Gold continues to record new records during the day, showing that buying power is still absolutely dominant. In recent sessions, the simplest strategy – just “BUY” according to the trend – has brought good profits.
At the moment, the most important thing is to wait for the price to adjust to the support zones to establish a new buying position. If you are still trying to “catch the top” of gold, maybe it is time to temporarily remove the Sell button and go with the main trend of the market.
📈 Trading strategy:
BUY Trigger: When a price rejection signal appears at the support zone of 4180 – 4215
Target: Aim for the 4300 mark
Gold Intra-day Analysis 22-Oct-25
A quick short video on Gold after the strong profit taking we saw yesterday.
We are focusing on higher time frame areas in interest to watch for the price action as we reach them.
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Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis
The chart shows a completed five-wave impulsive structure, with price forming a strong top around 4220–4230 before breaking the main ascending trendline on the 2H timeframe.
A short-term pullback toward the 2H Fair Value Gap (FVG) area between 4219–4223 is expected before the next bearish leg toward 4004, and possibly 3830–3833.
As long as price remains below 4230, the short-term outlook stays bearish.
📊 Fundamental View:
Gold is facing pressure as Fed rate-cut expectations fade and bond yields remain high.
Additionally, improved global risk sentiment and temporary easing of geopolitical tensions support the case for a corrective move lower in gold prices after the recent rally.
📅 Short-term Bias: Bearish
🎯 Targets: 4004 – 3830
⛔ Invalidation Level: Above 4230
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #EmaraCapital #Rami_Hajj_Bakour #Trading #Markets
Correct projection for GoldThe core conclusions of today's analysis on gold have all been verified by market trends, which can be summarized in three aspects: trend prediction, key level control, and trend logic:
1-Trend prediction verification: It was clearly stated this morning that "if it breaks below the key support level of 4280, it will enter a consolidation phase and may further drop to 4150". The current gold price is completely in line with this downward range, and the prediction is highly consistent with the actual trend.
2-Key level control: The previously emphasized resistance level at 4380 and support level at 4280 have both become the core boundaries of intraday price fluctuations.
3-We accurately captured "the restrictive effect of support and resistance levels on prices", and there were no deviations in the judgments on "short-term fluctuation rhythm and long-term trend direction", effectively providing clear range and direction references for trading operations.
Gold Near $4,100 PRZ – Time for a Reversal?Just like we discussed last week, Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ) moved exactly as expected and hit its targets .
Now, as we start the new week, Gold is continuing to form a New All-Time High(ATH) and is currently near a Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) and the $4,100 round number .
From an Elliott Wave perspective , it looks like Gold is completing wave 5, which could top out in this PRZ.
We’re also seeing a Regular Divergence(RD-) between the two consecutive peaks , which suggests that Gold might start a correction soon.
I expect Gold to begin a correction and at least drop down to the lower line of the ascending channel after breaking the Support zone($4,061 – $4,041) .
Note: If Gold breaks the lower line of that ascending channel, we can expect further downside.
Note: Also, keep in mind that Powell speaks tomorrow, which could influence Gold’s movement. As I mentioned, a bullish DXY outlook could also help push Gold lower.
Second Target: $3,963
Stop Loss(SL): $4,153(Worst)
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
XAU/USD - High volume Control🔶 XAUUSD Trading Card
🔑 Pivot Zone: 3860 - 3880 (Major Demand)
📊 Context: Bullish continuation - ATH discovery | Current 4274
⚠️ Key Levels:
Immediate Support = 4230 - 4240
Lower Support 1 = 4180 - 4200
Lower Support 2 - Strong = 4125 - 4150
Lower Support 3 - Very Strong = 4030 - 4050
────────────────────────────────────
🟢 Bullish Scenario
Bias Flip: Already active - ATH discovery mode
Trigger: Hold above 4230 + continuation momentum
🎯 T1 = 4300 (Projected)
🎯 T2 = 4350 (Projected)
❌ Invalidation: Back below 4230
────────────────────────────────────
🔴 Bearish Scenario
Bias Flip: Clear breach below 4230
Trigger: Close below 4230 + bearish momentum shift
🎯 T1 = 4180 - 4200
🎯 T2 = 4125 - 4150
🎯 T3 = 4030 - 4050
❌ Invalidation: Back above 4240
XAUUSD on verge[ will again buy] Targeting $5500XAUUSD holding the trendline on D1& H4 from 4270- 4245 zone after the implusive drop. Market is drop after rejecting from Double Top ATH.
What are my conditions For Today's session?
Currently i took buy trade from 4265 zone as bait ,I'm expecting H4 and H1 Candle closing will be above 4270 and on retest then market will left again.
✳️Secondly my last buying area will be around 4245-4250 if H4 remains above trendline on that time.
Targets: 4310- 4345-4370
Additional Tip:
Keep in mind H4 closed below 4245 then stay away from Buy AND Keep watching drop towards 4080 in extension
I will buy in Dips and my Ultimate next target on long run is 5500.
4365 Achieved Excellent profits Booked [1350 PIPS Gained]Thanks to traders who followed and stay Active with me on bullish rally
As highlighted in yesterday’s session update:
My Position:
The ongoing bull rally has played out perfectly, with both of my targets achieved ahead of schedule. I identified strong support around $4,220 & 4190 along condition H4 Candle for bullish rally. Iinitiated aggressive swing buys from that zone. When $4,190 was retested, I held off for a healthy pullback before re-entering.
At $4205& $4,225, I scaled in aggressively (four entries) aiming for $4,345, which was reached — locking in solid overnight gains.
I’m pleased with the overall performance during this multi-month bullish phase and plan to keep accumulating on dips until the $4,490 level is reached from my main re-entry zones.
Additional Tip:
Once again, I caution traders — avoid counter-trend selling.
Many get trapped trying to short Gold in a strong uptrend. Stay aligned with the trend — it’s still firmly bullish.🚀
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (October 21, 2025)
🔹 1. Momentum
H4:
H4 momentum is currently turning bearish, indicating that the main trend for today is downward.
H1:
H1 momentum is stuck in the oversold zone, suggesting that price could continue to fall, but at the same time, there’s a risk of a short-term bullish reversal — this should be monitored carefully.
M15:
M15 momentum is also turning bearish, confirming the potential for short-term downside continuation.
🔹 2. Wave Structure
H4 timeframe:
The current price structure likely forms a Flat correction (W–X–Y in blue) as part of wave 4 (in purple).
The X wave appears completed, and price is now in the declining phase of wave Y.
Wave Y may develop in three possible forms:
Zigzag
5-wave impulsive
Triangle
👉 In Zigzag or 5-wave formations, the target is usually equal to wave A.
👉 In a triangle, price may build higher lows, respecting the upper boundary connecting wave 3 and wave X.
H1 timeframe:
The H1 structure mirrors H4, but note that H1 momentum remains in the oversold zone, meaning an upward reversal could occur anytime.
M15 timeframe:
Used mainly for entry timing.
Since H4 momentum trend is bearish, we will prioritize Sell setups, especially after liquidity retests or breakdowns on the M15 chart.
🔹 3. Trading Plan
Main bias: Bearish (following H4 momentum)
Strategy:
Focus on Sell setups when price retests or breaks below liquidity zones.
Consider Buy setups only if price reaches the 4190 support area, signaling a potential end of wave 4 (purple) and the start of wave 5 (bullish).
Buy setup (if wave 4 completes):
Buy zone: 4193 – 4190
Stop loss: 4180
Take Profit: 4236
🔹 4. Alternative Scenarios
If price breaks sharply above 4381, the current wave count will be invalidated, and price could head toward 4451.
If price forms a triangle, with 4381 as the upper boundary and higher-low supports forming the lower edge, a breakout above 4381 would signal a Buy opportunity.
SINAL TYPE BUY GOLD ASSETBullish momentum confirmed with strong structure break and rejection from key support zone.
Price showing continuation strength ahead of the London session.
Targeting higher liquidity levels with clear upside potential.
Entry: Active
Stop Loss: Below recent swing low
Take Profit: 1st AT 100 PIPS DAILY SIGNALS
Momentum is building as bulls step back into control!
This setup highlights a high-probability short-term buying opportunity, ideal for traders who thrive on clean structure, momentum, and precision timing.
Market Snapshot
Structure Shift: Price holds a strong higher low — a classic sign of bullish intent.
Momentum Building: Buyers are defending key levels, showing early control.
Entry Zone: A focused area where upside acceleration is likely to begin.
Risk Control: Stop-loss levels kept tight (around 40–50 pips) for efficient capital protection.
Trading Outlook
Consider long entries near the highlighted zone as confirmation builds.
Targets: Short-term take-profits toward recent resistance or liquidity zones.
Tip: Adjust your lot size based on your personal risk plan — precision over size wins.
Trader’s Note
This signal focuses on short-term market momentum. Use it as part of a broader trading plan — not a guarantee. Stay disciplined, follow your risk rules, and let structure guide your trade.
GOLD PLAN TODAY | BULLISH TREND | XAUUSD OCT 17.2025 ☄️ Gold Market Outlook 10/ 17 (Based on SMC) ☄️
📊 Market Structure Overview
🔤On H1–H4, gold remains in a strong bullish structure, forming continuous BOS (Break of Structure) → clear Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
🔤The most recent FVG around 4325–4335 has already been tapped, showing that institutional demand is still holding.
🔤The 4220–4240 zone stands out as the main demand + FVG area, likely to act as major support if price retraces deeper
💡 Trading Plan
🔼 Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation Buy
🔤 Conditions: Wait for a small retracement toward FVG 4330–4340, then a bullish CHoCH on M5/M15 to confirm buyers’ defense.
🔤 Entry: 4333–4336
🔤 Reasoning: The last BOS remains intact; structure is bullish. A continuation setup aligned with smart money flow — low-risk, trend-following.
🔼 Scenario 2 – Deep Pullback Buy (Liquidity Sweep)
🔤 Conditions: If price sweeps below 4300, tapping into Demand + FVG 4275–4285, and forms a CHoCH bullish signal.
🔤 Entry: 4280–4285
🔤 Reasoning: This is the area where institutional orders likely remain open — a premium entry for patient traders waiting for confirmation.
🔽 Scenario 3 – Short-Term Sell (Liquidity Grab Short)
🔤 Conditions: If price spikes into 4400–4420 (supply zone), forms a bearish CHoCH on M15/H1, and leaves a small FVG down.
🔤 Entry: 4405–4415
🔤 Reasoning: This zone could act as short-term distribution before the next leg up — a scalp or intraday short setup only.
GOLD bounces back, hopes of policy reversalOANDA:XAUUSD reversed dramatically in the trading session on October 14, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent a clear dovish message, indicating that the Fed is ready to continue its rate-cutting cycle despite political uncertainty and the US government shutdown.
As of the time of writing, gold quickly recovered to $4,178 per ounce, up 0.89% on the day. The main driver came from expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 0.25% in October, a signal that Powell reinforced in his speech at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting.
Powell said the outlook for jobs and inflation “has not changed materially” since the September meeting, when the Fed began easing. But he stressed that risks to the labor market are rising, hiring has slowed, and unemployment could soon rise again after a long period of deep decline. “We are at a point where further deterioration in the labor market could start to show up in the unemployment rate,” Powell said, hinting at the possibility that the Fed may have to act more quickly to protect the expansion.
The announcement is seen as a turning point in policy direction, especially after Powell admitted that the Fed is considering ending the process of shrinking its balance sheet, a factor that has tightened global liquidity over the past year. Many organizations such as TD Securities believe that the Fed could announce the end of this program as early as the October meeting, paving the way for a clearly easing monetary environment from November.
The reaction in financial markets was immediate: the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell to 4.03%, the DXY index fell 0.25% to 99.00, showing that the Dollar is under new selling pressure. At the same time, safe-haven flows returned to the gold market, reinforcing the rapid recovery of this precious metal.
Markets saw Powell’s message as not only reassuring after a period of intense volatility, but also as opening up the possibility that the Fed is preparing for a prolonged easing cycle.
Broadly, the Fed is shifting its focus from containing inflation to protecting growth and jobs, a strategic shift. With global growth slowing, geopolitical risks spreading, and US-China trade tensions rising, Powell appears to prioritize maintaining liquidity and financial stability over further tightening.
Gold prices have risen more than 57% year-to-date, supported by safe-haven demand, strong central bank buying, and large inflows into gold ETFs. Institutions such as Bank of America and Société Générale are now raising their gold price forecasts to $5,000/ounce by 2026, in a scenario where the Fed ends its tightening cycle and the dollar enters a period of structural weakness.
If the Fed confirms its dovish stance at its October meeting, investors expect this could be a turning point in global monetary policy, with gold continuing to serve as a “confident gauge” of Powell’s management ability and the resilience of the US financial system.
Technical outlook analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Trend Overview
• Main Trend: Strongly bullish, price remains in an ascending channel, a series of long-bodied candles shows that buyers are in control.
• Technical Momentum: RSI in overbought zone (>75), momentum is still there but signals a risk of a short-term correction.
Important levels on the chart
• Near resistance: $4,213 (Fib 0.618). Next extension zone $4,286 – $4,378.
• Near support: $4,100 (psychological level), followed by $4,060 and $4,000 (strong support/low MA).
Short-term scenario & warnings
• Preferred scenario (trend-follow): maintain medium-term bullish view if price holds above 4,000–4,060.
• Correction warning: due to overbought RSI, a pullback of $50–$120 may occur to “digest” the momentum before continuing the trend. Macro news (Powell, employment data, geopolitical news) may trigger strong volatility.
Risk Management
• Smaller order sizes than usual due to high volatility.
• Don't chase prices past strong resistance; prioritize buying on signs of a successful retest.
The uptrend is still intact; a reasonable strategy is to buy with the trend on corrections or buy breakout confirmations. However, overbought RSI and macro/geopolitical news risks could cause significant pullbacks, so prioritize risk management and tight SL.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4242 - 4240⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4246
→Take Profit 1 4234
↨
→Take Profit 2 4228
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4145 - 4147⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4141
→Take Profit 1 4153
↨
→Take Profit 2 4159
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – October 19, 2025
1️⃣ Momentum
D1 Timeframe:
Daily momentum is showing early signs of bearish reversal.
As mentioned in the previous plan, a daily reversal could occur on Friday or Monday.
The strong bearish D1 candle on Friday reinforces this signal.
If another bearish D1 candle appears on Monday, it will confirm that the main trend for the coming week is likely to turn bearish, pushing D1 momentum toward the oversold zone.
H4 Timeframe:
H4 momentum is preparing to turn upward, suggesting that the initial downside movement on Monday may not be too strong.
A short-term recovery bounce is likely.
However, if this bounce fails to break the previous high and momentum reverses downward again, it will confirm the start of a more stable downtrend.
H1 Timeframe:
H1 momentum is currently in the overbought zone, which indicates a short-term pullback may occur early in Monday’s session.
2️⃣ Wave Structure
D1 Structure:
We can see a strong bearish candle — the largest since the beginning of the uptrend, signaling the first warning of exhaustion.
Together with the D1 momentum reversal, this suggests the yellow wave 3 is likely coming to an end, and yellow wave 4 is starting to form.
In terms of time, wave 4 could take more than a week to complete.
H4 Structure:
A sharp decline has pushed the price back inside the ascending channel, indicating that the extended wave 5 may have already ended.
If confirmed, the market could continue down toward at least the previous blue wave 4 area.
However, because H4 momentum is preparing to rise, a short-term upward correction may occur early Monday.
If this upward move is slow and overlapping, fails to break the previous high, and H4 momentum turns down again, that will confirm the completion of blue wave 5.
H1 Structure:
On the H1 chart, the blue wave 5 from H4 is detailed into five smaller red waves.
The recent steep and fast decline suggests a five-wave bearish pattern, possibly wave 1 of a new downtrend or wave A of a corrective move.
There is also a possibility of a Flat correction, where wave C extends to 1.618 × wave A (as discussed in the October 17 plan).
Overall, the market may present a short-term recovery bounce, providing a buy opportunity early in the week.
3️⃣ Trading Plan
Buy Zone: 4153 – 4151
Stop Loss: 4141
Take Profit: 4193
Alternative Scenario:
If price fails to break below 4193, monitor H1 momentum as it enters the oversold zone and turns upward — that will be a potential buy signal.
In that case, key support areas to watch include: 4243 – 4226 – 4207 – 4194.
Position Longs with 4250 as Key SupportGold maintained a consolidative pattern on Monday, gradually rebounding after testing the 4188 low and reaching a high near 4270. Technically, the price is currently trading within a bull flag consolidation pattern on the hourly chart. Key support has shifted higher to the 4250 level, while initial resistance lies in the 4280-90 zone. The market awaits a directional breakout.
For trading, use 4250 as a key support reference to position long orders on dips. The near-term target is the 4280-90 area. If gold manages to close firmly above 4290 during the U.S. session, it would signal a potential end to the consolidation phase, opening the path toward 4300 and possibly 4310. Conversely, a breakdown below 4250 would indicate a deeper correction risk.
Closely monitor the 4280-90 resistance band and the integrity of 4250 support. Trade in the direction of the confirmed breakout and ensure strict stop-loss placement for risk control.