GOLD LAYER BY LAYOR 15MIN AT A TIME
dont rush in and out.
double top neckline retest is a sell price action.
wait for confirmation to go long,for now its a sell structure,
Trade ideas
Gold Plan | Where will gold drop today?🔍 Market Context
Gold continues to maintain a short-term upward trend following a series of Break of Structure (BoS) , confirming active buying from lower zones.
Currently, the price is approaching the ATH GOLD zone and heading towards the Liquidity Sell Zone 4,281 USD – a densely liquid area where short-term sell reactions from major players may occur.
After a hot rise, technical correction risks are starting to increase. Lower zones like 4,186 – 4,152 – 4,130 USD will be potential “accumulation zones” for institutional buyers in the upcoming pullback.
💎 Technical Analysis
ATH GOLD: 4,275 – 4,280 USD
Liquidity Sell Zone: 4,281 – 4,285 USD → high liquidity resistance area, may trigger short-term reversal reactions.
Liquidity Zone $$$: 4,186 – 4,152 USD → crucial support area in the uptrend, where technical reactions are expected.
FVG – BoS Zone: 4,152 – 4,148 USD → “price balance” zone yet to be filled, likely to be retested.
OB Deep Zone: 4,130 – 4,120 USD → deep demand zone converging with Fibo 0.786 – ideal area for large capital to re-accumulate.
Overall structure remains bullish , but in the premium zone – an area where institutions typically distribute orders to gain liquidity before adjusting.
📈 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ Main Scenario – Sell reaction at Liquidity Zone 4,281 USD
When the price hits the 4,275 – 4,281 USD zone and clear reversal signals appear (rejection candles, bearish engulfing, or minor structure break),
→ open short-term sell orders (scalp/intraday).
Target: 4,186 → 4,152 USD.
Stop Loss: above 4,285 USD.
➡️ This is a typical “liquidity sweep – technical reaction” scenario, capitalising on short-term sell-offs at high liquidity peaks.
2️⃣ Secondary Scenario – Buy back following the main trend after correction
When the price corrects to the 4,186 – 4,152 USD zone or deeper to OB Deep 4,130 USD ,
and clear upward confirmation signals appear (strong rejection or minor BoS increasing again),
→ open buy orders in line with the main trend.
Target: 4,230 → 4,275 USD.
Stop Loss: below 4,120 USD.
➡️ Trend-following scenario – waiting for price correction to discount zones to accumulate in line with the larger trend.
⚠️ Risk Management
Do not FOMO buy when the price is hitting the 4,275 – 4,281 USD zone.
Prioritise short-term sells with clear confirmations or buys at lower OB zones.
Keep light volume when trading against the main trend.
Observe reactions at the 4,186 zone – this is the key level of the day.
💬 Conclusion
Gold is at the peak of the current rise , short-term profit-taking pressure may appear around the 4,281 USD zone.
If strong reactions occur, a correction to the 4,186 – 4,152 USD zone is reasonable for market rebalancing.
The larger trend remains upward , so lower OB zones will be reasonable buy opportunities for the next wave.
👉 Reasonable Strategy:
Sell reaction at 4,281 USD when reversal signals appear.
Buy back at 4,186 – 4,152 – 4,130 USD when confirmation signals appear.
XAUUSD SELL PENDING ORDER - Day 9 Withdrawal ChallengeXAUUSD SELL PENDING ORDER - Day 9 Withdrawal Challenge
LAST DAY OF THE CHALLENGE
1:1 RR
looking for sells below 4140.50
Tp1 4135.50 (set SL to BE and secure some)
TP2 4125
Sell is invalid and pending orders cancelled if price makes a newer high (above 4156)
“XAUUSD Analysis
Key Medium/High Risk scalp zones, optimal Buy Zone, avoid buy limits at open. #XAUUSD #Forex #Trading”
XAUUSD IMPULSIVE UPDATE 📘 Educational only — not financial advice.
🕒 Africa/Cairo (+03:00) — Tue 14 Oct 2025 — 08:45.
───────────────────────────────────────────────
🟡 YALLA XAUMO — IMPULSIVE UPDATE (MegaBar Live)
───────────────────────────────────────────────
🎯 Context:
Gold just printed a **Mega Bear** at **4,179 → 4,127** (Δ = −2.22K, Vol ≈ 37.5K)
immediately after a **Mega Bull** spike at **4,172 → 4,179** (Δ = +535, Vol ≈ 13.4K).
This sequence = **Stop-flush candle** with **exhaustion top** — textbook XAUMO “Bull Trap”.
Notice how the delta collapsed from +535 → −2,220 in one rotation = liquidity vacuum.
🔍 Key Levels (Cairo 08:45 snapshot)
• High: **4,179.6** (failed breakout)
• Low: **4,127.2**
• Spot: **4,131.7** (−0.87%)
• VWAP: **≈4,153**
• VAH: **4,176** | POC: **4,152** | VAL: **4,132**
🧭 XAUMO Read:
• 15m momentum flipped Bearish after MegaBear bar.
• Delta divergence confirms short-term sellers in control.
• Expect “reversion drift” toward **4,120–4,109** unless buyers reclaim **4,146** fast.
• Recovery invalidation = 15m close **>4,160** with **RVOL>1.25**.
📊 Bias Update:
• 15m → 🔴 61% downtrend
• 1h → 🟡 Neutral/holding
• 4h → 🟢 intact swing trend (major uptrend still alive)
Composite → **Short-term correction inside bullish regime.**
⚙️ Trade Logic (educational)
**Scenario A — Correction short (scalp):**
Entry: 4,144–4,152 rejection
SL: 4,160
TP: 4,127 → 4,112 → 4,102
Probability: 68% while <4,152
**Scenario B — Recovery long (fade the flush):**
Entry: 4,127–4,131 (if delta neutralizes)
SL: 4,115
TP: 4,146 → 4,160 → 4,176
Trigger: 15m RVOL>1.10 + bullish absorption bar
🧮 XAUMO Alert:
MegaBar pattern = **“Trap & Flush”**, typical pre-London fakeout.
Be patient for retest 4,146–4,152 → decision zone.
⚠️ Checklist:
MegaBear printed below VAH
Delta negative continuation
RVOL normalization ≥1.10 → required for rebound
Watch 09:00–10:00 Cairo for London confirmation
---
🇪🇬 **ملخص بالعربي (سريع):**
الذهب عمل "شمعة مصيدة" — **Mega Bear** عند 4,179 → 4,127.
دلتا نزلت من +535 لـ −2,220 = تصفية قوية قبل لندن.
الشراء المؤقت ما يتفعلش غير فوق **4,146–4,152** ومع **RVOL > 1.10**.
لو السوق فضل تحتها، احتمال نشوف **4,120–4,109** قريب.
إلغاء السيناريو: إغلاق 15د فوق **4,160**.
---
🏆 Winners trade with XAUMO indicators
Stop!Loss|Market View: GOLD🙌 Stop!Loss team welcomes you❗️
In this post, we're going to talk about the near-term outlook for GOLD ☝️
Potential trade setup:
🔔Entry level: -
💰TP: -
⛔️SL: -
"Market View" - a brief analysis of trading instruments, covering the most important aspects of the FOREX market.
👇 In the comments 👇 you can type the trading instrument you'd like to analyze, and we'll talk about it in our next posts.
💬 Description: Metals continue to demonstrate impressive results. As a result, we are seeing new all-time highs. It's difficult to find any potential buy or sell levels for gold, but we can highlight an area around 4200-4250, where sell trades, especially mid-term, are highly likely to be liquidated. This assumption is based on a 25% price move from the start of the current rally since August, as well as the point of control (POC) of the same rally around 3650. We should likely expect the end of the US shutdown, after which we could see a correction in metals.
Thanks for your support 🚀
Profits for all ✅
❗️ Updates on this idea can be found below 👇
XAUUSD: Targeting New Highs After PullbackKey Observations:
Recent Momentum: The market has shown strong recent bullish (upward) momentum, indicated by a series of large green candles leading up to the current price level.
Current Price: The current price is around $4,102.61.
Continuation Pattern: The analysis shows a bullish continuation pattern overlaid on the chart (the black curved line and green arrow). This suggests the trader anticipates a brief pullback followed by a strong move up to the target. The anticipated pattern resembles a potential bull flag/pennant or an "S-curve" retest before continuation.
Entry/Pullback Zone: The immediate blue zone below the current price (around $4,085 - $4,090) and the lower blue zone (around $4,060 - $4,067) represent likely support areas where a pullback might occur before the rally resumes.
Trading Setup Details:
Target (Take Profit): $4,130.20 (A clear horizontal resistance or projected high).
Stop Loss (Risk Limit): $4,045.45 (Placed well below the lower support zone, indicating a protective measure against a reversal of the bullish trend).
Conclusion:
The analysis is strongly bullish. The setup is based on expecting the current upward trend to continue after a minor technical correction/retest of a key support level.
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for October 13thGold Technical Analysis
Daily Resistance: 4080, Support: 3944
4-Hour Resistance: 4060, Support: 4000
1-Hour Resistance: 4060, Support: 4024
The latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes reinforced market expectations of a rate cut. Despite inflation concerns, the prevailing trend toward easing policy remains unchanged. This tone, combined with the generally downward trend in interest rates among major central banks worldwide, creates a favorable macroeconomic environment for gold. As long as expectations of rate cuts persist and bond yields decline, gold's appeal will remain. Therefore, the bullish sentiment dominating the market remains strong in the short to medium term, and any pullback is likely to be viewed as a buy-on-the-dip opportunity. Gold prices are expected to maintain their upward momentum, supported by fundamentals.
The 4-Hour chart previously retreated from 4057 to a low of 3944 before stabilizing and testing a second higher high. Watch for localized pullbacks on the 4-hour chart at the start of the week. While this is still a correction within the overall bullish trend, the gains without a deep pullback are unlikely to be sustainable in the short term. Therefore, this week's strategy remains short-term holding, with cautious buying. Be wary of a pullback after a new high. Wait for a pullback before considering buying near support.
BUY: 4032near
BUY: 4024mear
BUY: 4000near
Gold hits new ATH at $4,078 – Bullish momentum remains strong📊 Market Overview:
Gold extended its rally on Monday, October 13, reaching a new all-time high at $4,078/oz before retracing slightly to $4,060. Safe-haven demand driven by escalating US–China trade tensions and global uncertainty continues to support the precious metal. Gold ETFs recorded their strongest inflows in the past three weeks.
🧭 Technical Analysis:
• Main trend: Strong bullish (H1–H4)
• EMA: Price firmly above EMA20–50 cluster → sustained uptrend
• Resistance: $4,080 – $4,095
• Support: $4,050 – $4,032
• Candle pattern: Strong bullish rejection candle near $4,050 (buyers still dominant)
• Momentum: RSI holding above 65, no clear overbought signal yet
💡 Outlook:
Momentum remains solid; gold may retest $4,080–$4,100 soon, especially if the USD weakens during the US session. However, traders should stay cautious around this resistance area due to potential technical pullbacks.
🔺 BUY XAU/USD
Entry: $4,057 – $4,060
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
🛑 SL: $4,054
XAUUSD - Planning for a News-Driven Dip to Enter Long
🎯 Market Scenario (Scenario 1):
All eyes are on two major geopolitical events scheduled for today:
1. The release of hostages by Hamas.
2. A speech by Trump in Egypt, expected to declare a ceasefire and peace.
In the short term, these de-escalatory developments are likely to be perceived as "risk-on," potentially triggering a corrective pullback in safe-haven assets like Gold.
📈 Our Trading Strategy:
We are monitoring this expected correction to enter a long position at a more favorable price. We believe the initial sell-off could present a buying opportunity within a key technical demand zone.
· Current Price: ~4,056
· Target BUY ZONE: 3,985 - 3,959
⚡️ Execution Criteria:
We will ONLY enter a BUY position if:
1. Price corrects into our predefined BUY ZONE due to the "risk-on" news catalyst.
2. Our technical confirmation checklist shows signs of a bullish reversal and strength.
We are not selling Gold; we are waiting to buy a potential dip caused by positive news.
Tags: #XAUUSD #Gold #Geopolitics #TradingSetup #BuyTheDip #Forex #RiskManagement
Is the bull market over for now? Monday's outlook analysis.#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Gold experienced significant fluctuations back and forth this Friday, which is relatively rare in the entire trading market. There are many traders in the market who are trapped after chasing high prices, or their accounts are blown up because they do not have a reasonable trading plan. This is when the importance of following a good mentor becomes even more apparent. After all, no one's money comes from the wind.
On Friday, Trump said his plan to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports was "unsustainable". Subsequently, Wall Street stock index futures pared losses as Trump confirmed that the meeting with China "will still take place as scheduled", temporarily easing investors' concerns about global trade tensions.
But concerns about the prolonged trade standoff remain one of the key drivers of gold's recent gains. This is accompanied by the continued shutdown of the US government and the market's expectation that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points twice in a row at its monetary policy meetings in October and December, which will continue to provide strong support for the rise in gold prices.
From a technical perspective, Friday's volatility was very large, but it is obviously premature to blindly speculate that the market has reached its peak in the short term. After all, the fundamentals have not yet created the conditions for a major market crash. Combining the hourly chart and the 4H chart, the short-term support is around 4190-4180. If this position is not broken, it may be difficult to open up the downward space. Otherwise, the gold price will enter a correction rhythm. The upper range of 4275-4285 forms short-term suppression, which is also the watershed between the bulls and bears of gold. Only when gold stands above this range will it be possible to return to the bull market.
As for the short-term trading rhythm, we can try to go long on gold if it directly falls back to the support level of 4190-4180, with SL, and the profit target will be 4225-4235. If gold continues to rebound on Monday and touches 4275-4285 for the first time without breaking through, you can short it with a light position. The target will be adjusted in real time according to the strength of the pullback. You can exit the market when you earn $10-30. If a second rebound breaks through resistance, we can look for opportunities to go long after the correction.
Gold's Record-Breaking Rally: Why $4,000 is Just the StartThe global financial landscape is sending a clear signal that the old rules are broken. On October 17, gold prices shattered all-time records, surging to nearly $4,400 per ounce, just days after breaking the $4,000 barrier for the first time in history.
This isn't a temporary spike; it's a fundamental re-pricing of wealth. Investors are fleeing traditional "safe havens" in search of real security, and they've found it in the one asset that has preserved wealth for 5,000 years.
For those watching from the sidelines, this raises two urgent questions: Why is this happening now, and is it too late to act?
As a 14-year veteran in the gold market, I can tell you this rally is far from over. Here’s a breakdown of what’s driving the surge and why gold remains the most critical investment for the future.
A Perfect Storm: The 10 Drivers Behind Gold's Historic Rise
The current price surge isn't due to one single factor but a powerful convergence of economic, political, and psychological forces.
1. Geopolitical Chaos: From the ongoing war in Ukraine to conflict in the Middle East and the persistent US-China trade tensions, the world is in a state of turmoil. During times of crisis, gold is the ultimate "crisis hedge." Major investment banks note that significant geopolitical events consistently drive gold 10-15% higher as investors seek stability.
2. US Political & Economic Uncertainty: Unpredictable policies, pressure on the Federal Reserve, and mounting political division in the U.S. have eroded global trust in American leadership and its assets. Investors no longer view US bonds with the same confidence, and that capital is flowing directly into gold.
3. Massive Central Bank Buying: This is one of the biggest stories. Central banks around the world—led by China, Russia, India, and Turkey—bought a record 3,200 tonnes of gold between 2022 and 2024. These are not speculators; they are "price-insensitive buyers" seeking long-term security, and they are permanently removing massive amounts of supply from the market.
4. The Rise of De-Dollarization: When Western nations sanctioned Russia and froze $300 billion of its dollar reserves, it sent a shockwave through the global south. Nations realized that holding dollars is a political risk. This has triggered a massive, long-term trend of "de-dollarization," where countries are actively dumping US dollars and replacing them with neutral, sanction-proof gold.
5. A Fundamental Shift in Reserves: For the first time since 1996, central banks' gold reserves have surpassed their holdings of US Treasury bonds. This isn't just diversification; it's a strategic replacement. Gold is being re-throned as the world's primary reserve asset, replacing the US dollar.
6. Expected Interest Rate Cuts: The U.S. Federal Reserve is signaling an end to its rate-hiking cycle, with cuts expected. When interest rates fall, the return (yield) on bonds and savings accounts drops, making non-yielding gold more attractive. Investors are front-running this move.
7. The Crushing Weight of Global Debt: The United States government is now over $37 trillion in debt. This mountain of debt is unpayable. The only way for governments to manage it is to devalue their currencies by printing more money, which causes inflation. Gold is the direct antidote to this currency debasement.
8. The Ultimate Inflation Hedge: While inflation has cooled slightly, the damage is done, and the threat remains. Decades of money printing have destroyed the purchasing power of fiat currencies. Gold is the ultimate "inflation hedge" because its value is intrinsic and cannot be inflated away by a central bank.
9. Surging ETF and Investment Demand: Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have made it simple for average investors to buy gold. This has opened the floodgates to a new class of investor, adding to the demand from central banks and traditional buyers.
10. Market Psychology (FOMO): Success breeds success. As prices hit new records daily, investors who were on the fence are now experiencing a powerful "Fear of Missing Out" (FOMO). This psychological driver creates a feedback loop, pulling more and more money into the market and pushing prices even higher.
Beyond the Headlines: The Hidden Drivers
On top of those 10 reasons, other powerful factors are adding fuel to the fire:
• Physical Supply Constraints: "Peak Gold" is a real concept. The easiest-to-find gold in the world has already been mined. New discoveries are rare, and it is becoming increasingly difficult and expensive to extract new supply from the ground.
• Rising Energy Costs: Gold mining is an incredibly energy-intensive process. As the cost of oil and energy rises, the "all-in-sustaining cost" (the floor price to produce an ounce of gold) also rises, pulling the market price up with it.
• Loss of Faith in Alternatives: After years of extreme volatility, regulatory crackdowns, and high-profile frauds, the cryptocurrency market has failed to prove itself as a reliable "digital gold." Many investors who sought an alternative to the fiat system are now returning to the original, 5,000-year-old decentralized asset.
The Future Forecast: Why $5,000 Gold is the Next Target
The world's top financial institutions believe this rally is just getting started. The core drivers—de-dollarization, central bank buying, and unmanageable debt—are not short-term trends; they are multi-decade structural shifts.
• Goldman Sachs predicts gold will reach $5,000 per ounce by December 2026.
• Bank of America has also released a forecast, stating that a $5,000 target is possible within the same timeframe.
• UBS sees prices remaining elevated above $4,200 throughout 2026.
These forecasts are based on the simple fact that the fundamental problems driving investors to gold are only getting worse.
In an Uncertain Future, Gold is Your Financial Anchor
In the coming years, "safety" will be redefined. A safe asset is not one that is merely stable; it's one that cannot fail.
Gold is the ultimate safe-haven investment for one simple reason: it has zero counterparty risk.
• When you buy a stock, you are trusting a CEO and a management team. The company can go bankrupt.
• When you buy a bond, you are trusting a government or corporation to pay you back, in a currency that is worth less every day.
• When you hold cash, you are trusting a central bank not to devalue it to zero (a promise they have broken time and time again).
When you hold physical gold, you are trusting no one. It is an asset that is not simultaneously someone else's liability. It cannot go bankrupt, and it cannot be printed into oblivion. It has preserved wealth through every war, plague, and financial collapse in human history.
Why Gold is the Only True Asset
We have come to confuse currency with money and digital entries with wealth. Gold is the only true asset.
Fiat currency (USD, EUR, etc.) is a medium of exchange, but it is a liability of the central bank that issues it. It is backed only by faith in a political system—a faith that is clearly eroding.
Real estate is a tangible asset, but it is illiquid, expensive to maintain, and can be taxed or seized by the government.
Gold is different. It is elemental wealth. It is the only asset that is durable, divisible, portable, has intrinsic value, and is recognized as money everywhere on Earth by every culture.
The current price surge is not a "bubble." It is a "Great Re-Pricing"—the market's slow, dawning realization that paper currencies are failing and that gold is the only reliable measure of value. The question is no longer if you should own gold, but how much of your savings you can afford not to protect with it.
Gold Technical Analysis: When Technical Analysis Deviates from Its Conventional Path
The current state of the gold market presents a significant challenge for technical analysts. A look at the charts reveals a clear anomaly. From a technical standpoint, particularly using momentum indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index), gold has entered the "overbought" territory on nearly every timeframe, from the 5-minute to the daily chart.
Under normal circumstances, this "overbought" status would signal that a major price correction is imminent. However, the gold market has recently deviated significantly from its long-established behaviors and phenomena.
Why Traditional Technical Analysis is Failing
Despite the market being severely overbought, we are not witnessing any meaningful correction. Traditional "Price Action" signals, such as bearish engulfing candles or divergences, are failing to gain traction against this powerful upward momentum.
The only discernible pullbacks are occurring at the end of the week or month, which can be attributed to short-term traders "profit-taking." These brief sell-offs are now what pass for "corrections." Beyond this, significant price revisions are almost non-existent.
The primary reason for this is that the market is far more influenced by fundamental factors than by technical indicators at this moment.
The One Reliable Tool: The Moving Average
Despite this erratic behavior, one technical tool has remained surprisingly effective: the Moving Average (MA).
It is evident that as gold's price climbs, it is closely respecting various MA periods. On short-term timeframes (like the 5-minute, 15-minute, or 1-hour), different MA lines are acting as robust "dynamic support." Whenever the price dips to touch an MA line, new buyers become active, pushing the price back up.
For the past several months, most popular technical indicators and chart patterns—aside from moving averages—have become largely ineffective in this one-sided market.
What Should the Trading Strategy Be?
Analyzing the current market conditions, a logical trading strategy is to follow the adage, "The trend is your friend."
Since other indicators are failing and the market is in a powerful uptrend, the most prudent approach is to remain in "buy mode," using the moving averages as a guide. Every dip to an MA support level can be viewed as a new buying opportunity. This strategy remains valid until the primary uptrend is decisively broken.
When Could a Major Correction Signal Appear?
However, buying blindly into this rally is also risky. We must be prepared for signs of a major correction. The first sign of weakness in this powerful uptrend—and a signal for a significant price drop—would likely come when gold closes firmly below its long-term 200-period Moving Average (200 MA) or its primary up-trend line on a higher timeframe, such as the 1-hour (H1) or H4 (H4) chart.
Until that happens, any minor declines should be treated merely as "profit-taking" or temporary pullbacks, not as a trend reversal.
Conclusion: Fundamentals Are the Core Driver
We must remember that regardless of what the technical charts say, this historic rise in gold is backed by extremely powerful "fundamental" reasons. Geopolitical instability, the weakening of the dollar, record-breaking purchases by central banks, and the unpredictable policies of the US (Trump) administration have all solidified gold's status as the ultimate "safe haven."
If there is a major change in any of these underlying fundamentals (such as the announcement of a major ceasefire or sudden economic stabilization), gold's fall could be just as rapid and severe as its rise.
Therefore, trading based on technical charts alone is insufficient in this market. To make the right move at the right time, we must stay constantly abreast of global news and economic data. The next major move is unlikely to be signaled by a chart pattern; it will most likely be triggered by a "news headline."
Gold Price Forecast and Strategy for October 20:
Core Trend Judgment: Short-term topping signals have strengthened, marking the start of a deep technical correction. Core Strategy: Prioritize selling on rallies, with counter-trend bounces at key support levels as a secondary approach.
I. Key Pivot Levels
Core Resistance Zone: 4280 - 4290 USD
This area is the previous key neckline and now acts as a strong pressure zone following Friday's sharp decline. It is the optimal defensive and entry area for shorts.
Core Support Zone: 4200 - 4220 USD
The initial support zone formed after Friday's plunge. A decisive break below this level will confirm the continuation of the downtrend.
Ultimate Support Zone: 4170 - 4180 USD
The final key defensive line for bulls, coinciding with the low point of Friday's drop. The first touch of this zone is expected to trigger a significant technical rebound.
II. Detailed Trading Strategy
1. Primary Strategy: Sell on Rebound
Entry Point: When the price rebounds to the 4280-4290 zone and shows signs of weakness (e.g., bearish reversal candlestick patterns like Evening Star, Bearish Engulfing).
Stop Loss: Place above 4300 USD (positioned above the key resistance zone).
Take Profit Targets: First Target 4230-4220 → Second Target 4200 → Final Target 4180.
2. Secondary Strategy: Buy at Key Support (Counter-trend, Extreme Caution Advised)
Entry Point: When the price experiences its first deep pullback to the 4170-4180 zone and shows clear bullish reversal signals (e.g., Hammer, Bullish Engulfing candlestick patterns).
Stop Loss: Place below 4160 USD (to exit promptly if key support fails).
Take Profit Target: Short-term target 4230-4250 zone. Exit immediately upon reaching the target; trade quickly.
III. Analysis and Rationale
Technical Turn Bearish:
Topping Pattern: A Double Top bearish pattern formed on the 1-hour chart around 4379 USD, triggering a nearly 200-dollar sell-off.
Bearish Momentum: The daily chart formed a large bearish candle engulfing the previous bullish one, and the 4-hour chart shows consecutive strong bearish candles, indicating extremely strong selling pressure.
Key Level Broken: The price has broken below the previous crucial support zone of 4280-4300, which has now converted into strong resistance.
Fundamental Support and Risks:
Supportive Factors: High market expectations for Fed rate cuts in October and December, alongside geopolitical risks, provide medium-to-long-term bottom support for gold, limiting the downside.
Risk Factors: Any news regarding eased trade tensions, resolution of the US banking crisis, or hawkish comments from the Fed could intensify short-term selling pressure on gold.
IV. Risk and Discipline Reminders
Expect Volatility: Following historic price swings, market sentiment is highly unstable. The market is prone to reversals and "choppy" action. Ensure light positioning.
Strict Stop-Losses: It is mandatory to set unconditional stop-losses to prevent losses from escalating on any single trade. This is especially critical for counter-trend long positions.
Follow the Trend: Until the price convincingly breaks above and holds steady at 4300 USD, "selling short on rebounds" is the predominant theme. Buying the bounce is a counter-trend operation; it requires strict position control and a quick exit strategy.
Summary: Technical bearish signals are clear. Traders are advised to patiently wait for the price to rebound into the 4280-4290 resistance zone to establish short positions, offering the best risk-reward ratio. Long positions should only be considered as a short-term bounce strategy at the 4170-4180 strong support zone and require extreme caution.
Gold at a vertical angle and requiring the passage of timeWhat is not known about the trend that has been developing since the early 1970s is a transition from the upward swings!
What is more striking is the speed with which these swings have occurred!
Good luck!
GSC GOLDmulti decade grand super cycle view on gold hypothesizing that the top is in or is very close.
M-shaped adjustment holds on to 4300-4280 and there are new high#XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Hey my friend, is everything okay?
Today's gold market may be exhausting for many people, and the market's back-and-forth washout continues to suppress the mentality of traders. I have witnessed too many people entering the investment market with high hopes, but later suffered heavy losses and became afraid to enter the market. They lost so much that they didn't even have the confidence to encourage themselves. They even suspected at one point that they might not be suitable for this market.
Many investors are unhappy about staying in the investment market, but unwilling to leave. This may be the current situation faced by them. The road to success is not crowded because there are not many people who persevere. I want to tell you all this to let you know that short-term fluctuations cannot affect us. Just stick to your own judgment and try your best to do well in every order.
In the early morning, I told everyone that 4380 would be a resistance level. When it is touched, you can consider shorting and wait for a pullback correction. This morning I made the judgment that the short-term market will form an M-shaped double top. So far, it seems to be moving in the direction of my expectations. There are many voices in the current market telling you to go long at 4340-4330, but in my opinion, the risk and return here are not proportional.
Keep in mind that today is Friday, and every Friday is prone to shifting fundamentals in the market. Therefore, we should be cautious when trading. Given the M-shaped structure, once it is established, after breaking through the 4313 support, gold will inevitably continue its downward trend to test the 4300-4280 support below. This is both the previous trend line suppression position and the low point of the intraday retracement, as well as the 50% golden section line position. Therefore, we can consider waiting for the market to stabilize before placing long positions and maintaining a cautious trade.
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GOLD (XAU/USD) BULLISH CONTINUATION SETUP AFTER RETESTChart Overview
Timeframe: 1H (Hourly)
Current Price: Around $4,338
Trend: Strong bullish trend within a rising channel
Structure: Price broke slightly above the channel top and is now retesting the resistance level as potential new support
🔍 Detailed Analysis
1. Trend Structure
Gold has been moving in a strong upward channel, showing consistent higher highs and higher lows.
The breakout above the resistance channel suggests bullish continuation, but a short-term pullback or retest is expected before another leg up.
2. Key Levels
Resistance Level: Around $4,350 – $4,370, now acting as support.
Entry Zone: Around $4,313 – $4,338 (highlighted region).
Stop Loss: Below $4,274 – $4,268 zone to protect against false breakouts.
Target Point: Around $4,509 – $4,513, which aligns with the projected move from the breakout zone.
💹 Trade Plan (Bullish Setup)
Entry: Wait for price to test and hold above $4,313 (confirmation candle or bullish rejection).
Stop Loss: $4,274 – $4,268 (below recent swing low).
Take Profit: $4,509 – $4,513.
Risk/Reward Ratio: Roughly 1:4, which is excellent for a continuation trade.
⚠️ Market Sentiment Notes
If gold fails to hold above $4,313, the move could turn into a deeper correction toward $4,250 – $4,200.
Watch for strong bullish candles near the entry zone for confirmation.
The setup remains bullish-biased, but patience for a clean entry is key.
✅ Summary:
Bias: Bullish
Setup Type: Pullback continuation
Buy Zone: $4,313 – $4,338
Target: $4,509 – $4,513
Stop: $4,268
#XAUUSD LONG Setup
A clear reversal pattern is forming on the chart, suggesting a potential move to the upside.
Trade Idea:
· Direction: Long
· Target: 30-50 Pips
· Key Level: Respecting support at ~4202 - 4185
Always use a stop loss and proper risk management. #Gold is reacting to key levels, and we're following the momentum.
#Trading #Forex #XAUUSD #GoldTrading #SwingTrading #TradingView #Finance
GOLD 15MINGOLD 15MIN LAYER BY LAYER.
watch every 15min break of structure and a possible retest and take action .
risk management is key.
#gold #xauusd
A SELL TO THE RECTANGULAR Expecting a sell to the rectangular block before it decides next direction which can move below the block but not confirmed yet
10.16 Gold maintains the upward trend in the Asian session!!!From a multi-period analysis perspective, first observe the monthly chart's rhythm. From a long-term perspective, 3130 represents a watershed in the long-term trend. Above this level, consider a long-term bullish approach. From a weekly perspective, the current bull-bear watershed is 3585. Above this level, consider a medium-term bullish approach. From a daily perspective, focus on the 3997 support area for now. Above this level, consider a short-term bullish approach. From a four-hour perspective, which we've consistently emphasized, support currently lies at 4175. Above this level, consider a short-term bullish approach. On an hourly basis, prices are also currently bullish, but short-term divergence is occurring. Therefore, be mindful of short-term bullish risks in the event of further upward movement. Meanwhile, today's early trading session saw another surge in gains, with the early morning low serving as a watershed for the day. Above this level, consider a short-term bullish approach. Focus on the 4235-4266 area as an upward move.
Gold's Asian session low of 4199.73 marks the intraday watershed. Above this level, bullish momentum is expected to continue. (Also, a divergence is occurring in the hourly chart, so be aware of the risks associated with a short-term rally.)
XAUUSD: Scalp & Swing Setup (Clear and direct)
🎯 SCALP TARGET: 20 Pips
· Quick momentum play on the lower timeframes.
· 🎯 SWING TARGET: 100+ Pips
· A larger move targeting the next key resistance on the 4H/Daily chart.
· 🛑 RISK MANAGEMENT:
· A stop loss is crucial. Place it logically below the recent structure. (Always manage your risk!).
Checklist Before Entry:
✅ Price respects the support zone.
✅ Momentum confirms the move.
✅ Overall market context (DXY, etc.) is considered.
Join the Conversation:
What's your take on Gold? Bullish or Bearish? Let me know in the comments!
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