Trade ideas
Gold Forecast - Trade Zones & Setup Before FOMCGold is still trading weak under the descending trendline and the price continues to reject the 4220–4230 resistance zone. As long as it stays below this area the chart suggests bearish pressure toward 4170 and possibly 4145–4130 where strong liquidity sits.
With the Fed rate decision tomorrow volatility is expected to increase so price may remain choppy within this range until the announcement. A clear bullish shift only comes if gold breaks and holds above 4225 which could reopen the path toward 4250–4260. For now structure remains bearish with lower-high formations and clean downside targets visible.
🔵 Buy Zone
- 4165–4175 → This is the main demand zone.
- Buy Trigger: A strong bullish candle / rejection wick from 4165–4170 confirms buyers stepping in.
- Upside Target: 4200 → 4220 → 4230.
🔴 Sell Zone
- 4220–4230 → Major supply + trendline resistance.
- Sell Trigger: If price retests 4220–4230 and gives rejection or bearish engulfing, downside resumes.
- Downside Target: 4170 → 4145 → 4130.
⚠️ Important Note (Fed Rates Tomorrow):
Before the announcement, gold may stay inside 4200–4170 range, so triggers will be cleaner after the news when volatility expands.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
XAU/USD Daily OutlookXAU/USD Daily Outlook – Price Still Favors a Retracement Before Any Bullish Continuation
Gold continues to trade inside a corrective structure on the H1 chart, with price reacting strongly from the demand zone around 4161–4170, which represents a strong low in the current bullish leg. Despite the latest bounce, market structure still leans bearish as long as the short-term lower-high sequence remains intact.
The chart highlights a clear Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside, followed by a liquidity sweep and a weak reaction toward the mid-range. This suggests that the market may test deeper liquidity pools before forming a high-probability long setup.
Key Technical Zones
Resistance Levels
4198 – 4205: Nearest intraday resistance and imbalance fill.
4220 – 4235: Fibonacci 61.8% retracement + previous CHoCH zone.
4250 – 4260: Higher-timeframe supply, weak high still intact.
Support Levels
4170 – 4161: Fresh demand zone and strong low (key structure).
4148 – 4155: Liquidity pocket below equal lows.
4135 – 4140: Final support before a structural shift on H4.
Trendline & EMA Context
Price is currently trading below the EMA20 and EMA50, confirming short-term bearish momentum.
The descending trendline from the recent swing high remains intact, suggesting the market may retest this trendline before continuing downward.
Fibonacci Confluence
Measured from the swing high to the recent low:
38.2% Fib → 4198 area (first reaction point)
61.8% Fib → 4225 zone (major sell interest)
This aligns with prior BOS and CHoCH areas — a strong confluence for possible bearish continuation.
Intraday Bias: Bearish Retracement
Current structure favors a move toward 4198 – 4205 to rebalance inefficiency before the next potential bearish leg toward 4161. If this strong low breaks, deeper liquidity targets become exposed.
Trading Strategies
1. Sell-the-Retracement Strategy
Sell Zone: 4198 – 4205
Stop Loss: Above 4212
Targets:
TP1: 4175
TP2: 4161
TP3: 4150
This setup aligns with EMA resistance, trendline touch, and Fibonacci confluence.
2. Break-and-Retest Long Setup
Trigger only if price protects the strong low at 4161.
Entry Zone: 4165 – 4170
Stop Loss: 4155
Targets:
TP1: 4198
TP2: 4220
TP3: 4235
This only activates if the market confirms bullish intention with a CHoCH on lower timeframes.
Market Outlook
Gold remains in a corrective phase. Liquidity beneath the strong low is key. As long as price trades below the 4220 supply zone, bearish retracement setups offer better risk–reward. Monitor how the market reacts around 4198; this level will define the direction for the rest of the session.
Gold Buying RecommendationI maintain my analytical approach. For any rebound, we should focus on the short-term resistance level around 4225-30. Our strategy remains focused on buying on dips and rebounds. Don't assume that Friday's pullback has dampened bullish sentiment. As long as the key support level of 4163-75 isn't broken, the bulls will likely make a comeback. On the downside, we continue to watch the short-term support level of 4190-95. Our strategy remains to buy on dips.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the key resistance level to watch is 4245-60, with short-term resistance at 4225-30. On the downside, we watch the key support level of 4165-75. Technically, the current consolidation suggests a bias towards buying on pullbacks.
Buy gold around 4175-4165, stop loss at 4157, target 4245-50, hold if it breaks through.
Gold bullish continuation pattern breakout The Gold remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a breakout within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 4193 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 4193 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
4284 – initial resistance
4313 – psychological and structural level
4350 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 4193 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
4161 – minor support
4134 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the Gold holds above 4193. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Gold – 4H Trendline Analysis (Updated)🟡 Gold – 4H Trendline Analysis (Updated)
The red bullish trendline is already broken and retested, meaning the bullish structure has weakened and the market is preparing for a possible shift.
However — the sell side is NOT activated yet.
📉 Sell Activation Rule
A sell becomes valid ONLY after price breaks and closes below the 4176 zone.
Why this level?
4176 is the last protective support of the current structure.
Breaking it confirms:
Loss of bullish momentum
Break + retest of the red trendline turning into bearish
Bearish continuation toward 4128 → 4090
So even though the red trendline has already been broken, the official sell trigger remains at 4176.
📌 Until 4176 Breaks
The market is still not bearish.
No sell positions are activated.
Price may still fluctuate inside the structure or retest upper levels.
The gold price trend is unstoppable.Pricing Logic: U.S. Treasury Yield Anchor Fails, Central Bank Gold Purchases Become Core Driver
Old Framework Collapses, New Logic Establishes
The traditional pricing anchor of "gold’s negative correlation with U.S. Treasury yields" has collapsed. A rare phenomenon of "synchronized rally in gold prices and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields" has emerged over the past three weeks. The core driver lies in the declining credibility of the global monetary system and the demand for "de-dollarization," which have promoted the restructuring of the pricing framework.
Currently, gold’s trend is more susceptible to the influence of "central bank gold purchase scale, changes in U.S. dollar credit, and the degree of spot shortage." This transformation has reduced gold’s sensitivity to U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations by more than 30%, significantly enhancing its resilience during pullbacks.
Central Bank Gold Purchases Exceed Expectations
Global central bank gold purchases have exceeded 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, reaching 1,045 tons in 2024. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has increased its gold reserves for three consecutive months, with holdings rising to 73.45 million ounces by the end of January. The demand for asset diversification among emerging market central banks has formed a rigid support.
The $4,180–$4,200 range is not only a technical support level but also the core cost zone for global central bank gold purchases, establishing a strong bottom logic of "official buying interest emerging once prices fall below this range."
Gold trading strategy for next week
buy：4180-4190
tp:4200-4220-4250
sl:4170
Gold Awakens: Sharp Pullback but Outlook Remains BrightFrom a technical perspective, gold is currently moving within a parallel ascending channel, showing a clear bullish momentum with a rhythm that is hard to ignore. The price recently bounced away from the resistance area, indicating a typical overbought reaction. At the moment, the market is approaching the lower boundary of this projected channel, an area considered important. The convergence of several technical support levels in this zone is likely to attract renewed buying interest.
I expect the price to rebound toward the 4,250 area, which aligns with the mid-channel region. The bullish momentum may not appear immediately. The situation could develop into a consolidation phase, a false decline, or even a sudden acceleration.
GOLD Resistance Ahead!
HI,Traders !
#GOLD keeps growing
But will soon hit a horizontal
Resistance of 4229.11
So after the retest we will
Be expecting a local
Bearish correction !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
Selena | XAUUSD – 4H | Bullish Continuation Setup 4400$ WaitingFOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Gold continues to build bullish structure after forming accumulation in the previous range zone. The market broke out, retested demand, and maintained higher-lows inside the ascending channel. Current pullback into the Entry Zone (4122–4140) aligns with channel support + demand, suggesting potential continuation toward the upper boundary and major resistance around 4380–4410.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀
Hold above demand zone + channel support:
🎯 Target 1: 4320
🎯 Target 2: 4380
🎯 Target 3: 4410 (final top channel line)
Trigger: bullish rejection or bullish engulfing from 4122–4140.
❌ Bearish Case 📉 (Invalidation)
Break and 4H close below 4052 (Invalid zone):
🎯 Downside Target: 3990 → 3920 strong support
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 4320 / 4380 / 4410
Support 🟢: 4140 / 4122 (Entry Zone)
Invalidation: 4052
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
XAUUSD Buy Signal ScalpingGOLD. Buy 4204
TP¹ 4408
TP² 4211
TP³ 4214
TP⁴ 4217
SL...4194
Not a financial advice
USE PROPER MONEY MANAGEMENT CONSISTENCY
0812 Before FOMC, gold trading plan on Monday.Hello traders,
1. This Week’s Core Event: Fed December FOMC Meeting (Rate decision announced at 3:00 AM Beijing time on Dec 11)
- The focus isn’t the widely expected 25bp rate cut, but whether the Fed will restart "new bond purchases" (to replenish bank reserves). This will shape global liquidity for the next 6 months and also determine the Bank of Japan’s rate hike decision next month. Watch for statements like "using Treasury bill operations to maintain ample reserves" in the policy statement/Powell’s press conference, as well as the dot plot’s stance on consecutive rate cuts.
2. Short-Term Gold Trend Logic
- Gold will trade in a consolidation range before the FOMC meeting. It needs to reclaim above 4200 to confirm the uptrend; otherwise, a deeper pullback may follow. The expected range pre-meeting is 4160–4220 (current levels).
Gold Trading Plan (EU/US Sessions, Monday)
Fundamental Context
Gold is consolidating between 4160-4220 amid FOMC expectations, awaiting clarity on liquidity direction. Combined with the chart pattern, we’ll focus on long positions supported by the EMA zone in the short term.
Specific Trading Strategy
- Entry Condition:
Go long with a light position if price stabilizes in the 4200-4210 range (EMA support zone on the chart) during EU/US sessions (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns like a hammer or bullish engulfing).
- Stop-Loss:
Set stop-loss at 4190 (below the short-term EMA support and the key 4200 level).
- Take-Profit Targets:
1st target: 4244 (TP1 on the chart); 2nd target: 4266 (TP2 on the chart).
- Position Rules:
Keep single-position size ≤5% before the FOMC meeting (Dec 11 early morning). Partial profit-taking is allowed if TP1 is hit, while holding a small core position for post-meeting direction.
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
XAUUSD AND A PENDANT ON THE 1H TIME FRAMEHI GUYS GOLD HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF A PENDANT SITTING ON A CONSOLIDATED RANGE
IS TIS A VALID PATTREN OR IS IT JUST A TRIANGULAR PATTERN
IN ANY CASE IT HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE BOTTOM OOF THIS PATTERN A
lets have a clear look at what the indicators are telling us
on the 30min time line
we see the rsi is under 30 this a bearish signal
looking at the price action we see a bearish flag clear as day forming
we see that btcoin is also under the ichimoku cloud
on the 1 hour we still see bitcoin is under the cloud
the flag is more condensed the bearish flag is clear
the 4h time line shows just a sight reversal a standard pattern be fore more down swing.
in terms of indicatords
the rsi on the 30min is bearish under 50 it stays in this pisiton up till the 4h time line
giving a strong indication that for the 30min time line for a short positon
the macd
on the 30min the macd is showing a bullish cross over but there was no strong up swing rather the bearish flag where the market moved upwards in a sides was manner
the 1h time is also showing a potential cross over to bullish on the macd
the 4h is showing no turn signal
the adx
the adx is sitting under 20 from the 30 right up to the 4h timeline
to me this is a clear indication of the range we are currently in on gold
so horizontal support and resistance breaking is the key to a turn of events
a triangular pattern inside the range can also be used as a break out pattern and the bearish flag froming under the pattern is a good indicator for a sell
the indicators mentioned supports this also but as we know
with out a confirmation of a sell we need to trade with cuation
if you going to ender short on this trade enter with a small lot size wait for the break at
4183 for a early entry
other wise wait for a close below 4175 a strong close below this could be a confirmation of the bearish flag .
XAUUSD Analysis TodayXAUUSD Analysis Today – Key Levels, Liquidity Map and High-Probability Trading Plan
Gold is currently retracing after a clear fake breakout on the intraday structure, showing strong rejection from the extended premium zone. Price action on H1 reflects a shift from bullish exhaustion to short-term corrective movement, with liquidity sitting below the most recent swing low. Today’s session will likely revolve around sweeps, mitigation, and a return to discounted zones before any meaningful continuation.
1. Market Structure Overview
The H1 chart shows:
A completed ascending channel with a clear BOS followed by a liquidity sweep.
Price rejecting from the upper imbalance and returning toward equilibrium.
A notable Fake Breakout around 4214–4218 where liquidity was engineered before the sell-off.
The current decline is forming a corrective leg aimed toward the demand range.
This price behavior confirms a move into the BUY ZONE 4168–4186, aligning with Fibonacci retracement and trendline confluence.
2. Important Support & Resistance Levels
Key Resistance
4252–4257: Major supply and premium zone, strong rejection expected on first touch.
4220–4225: Reaction zone where the fake breakout occurred; a retest here may create another liquidity hunt.
Key Support
4201–4208: First reaction demand zone, shallow pullback potential.
4186–4174: Deep discount area, Fibonacci confluence, major BUY ZONE.
4168: Strong low protected by higher-timeframe liquidity.
3. Indicator Confluence
EMA Cluster (20/50/100) is compressing downward, confirming short-term correction.
RSI shows no bullish divergence yet, meaning the sweep of liquidity is still incomplete.
Fibonacci 61.8–78.6% aligns with the 4174–4168 zone, increasing probability of bullish reversal.
4. Expected Price Behavior Today
Scenario A (High Probability):
Price continues toward 4174–4168, sweeps liquidity, then forms a bullish CHoCH on lower timeframe before aiming for 4208 → 4220 → 4252.
Scenario B (Moderate Probability):
Price rejects early at 4201, retraces into 4220 supply, then drops again to deeper levels before reversing.
Scenario C (Low Probability):
Immediate bullish break above 4225 without retesting deeper zones.
5. Trading Strategy (High-Probability Setups)
Buy Strategy – Preferred Setup
Entry: 4174–4168 (Fibonacci + strong demand)
Stop Loss: Below 4160
Take Profit:
TP1: 4208
TP2: 4220
TP3: 4252–4257
This zone is optimal due to liquidity, trendline tap, and deep retracement discount.
Sell Strategy – Counter-trend Short
Entry: 4220–4225 (fake breakout zone retest)
SL: Above 4232
TP: 4205 → 4186
This trade targets the inevitable sweep to the BUY ZONE.
6. Summary
Gold is in a short-term corrective phase inside a larger bullish macro sentiment. Key liquidity remains below, and the most effective strategy today is waiting for deeper discount zones before looking for strong buys.
Gold next move (continuation but a pullback needed)(26-11-2025)Go through the analysis carefully and do trade accordingly.
Anup 'BIAS for the day (26-11-2025)
Current price- 4074
wait for the pullback and if it happens then buying area will be 4135-4040
"if Price stays above 4120, then next target is 4150, 4170 and 4205 and 4205 and below that 4100, 4085".
-POSSIBILITY-1
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening )
-POSSIBILITY-2
Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening)
Best of luck
Never risk more than 1% of principal to follow any position.
Support us by liking and sharing the post.
GOLD Buying Trade idea From the Support LevelHello Traders
In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today Gold analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Gold (XAU/USD) — pre-FOMC technical + fundamental setupOn the 15-min chart we see repeated rejections off the same resistance zone horizontal supply + a down sloping trendline. Each attempt has failed so far. That suggests bearish bias in the short-term.
The current structure supports a potential drop toward ~ 4160 (support zone), assuming gold remains under the resistance trendline.
~ Key wildcard: tonight’s FOMC decision. Markets are pricing in a 25 bps rate cut with high probability. If the Fed cuts and delivers dovish guidance, gold could rally possibly invalidating the bearish setup.
✅ But if the Fed cuts while signalling a cautious stance or a pause in easing, the dollar/yields could bounce reinforcing gold’s bearish technical structure and likely triggering the projected move down toward ~ 4160.
PLAN A (base case): Stay short under resistance, target ~ 4160.
PLAN B (if FOMC surprises dovish): Watch for break above trendline on breakout, avoid new shorts; consider potential longs if follow-through appears (momentum + candle confirmation).
Fundamental lens: Gold is inherently sensitive to real interest rates and Fed policy. Dovish Fed = bullish for non-yielding safe-havens like gold; hawkish/dovishmpause tone = bearish or consolidative. Given mixed US data and sticky risk sentiment, the post-FOMC reaction could be swift and volatile.
consider waiting for the post-announcement move rather than pre-loading a large position. Use tight risk control (stop-loss above resistance if short; if buying after a break, wait for retest + confirmation).
Gold Watch: Range-Bound Action Until FOMC, Macro Factors in PlayGold Market Analysis — Key Levels in Focus
Gold is currently trading around 4184, showing mixed momentum as the market reacts to multiple macro factors.
Key levels:
Support 1: 4176
Support 2: 4150
Resistance 1: 4218
Resistance 2: 4245
For now, gold is expected to range between 4150 and 4245 ahead of the FOMC announcement.
Bullish case: Increasing chances of a rate cut could push gold to higher levels.
Bearish case: External factors, including China and Japan economic developments, may trigger a downward move toward 4080, especially if the second support (4150) is broken.
Observation: The market remains sensitive to macro developments, and price may oscillate within the range until clear directional catalysts emerge.
Gold Continues to Range; Awaiting Breakout📊 Market Overview:
Gold continues to trade within a tight range 4180 – 4215, reflecting strong market indecision as traders await upcoming U.S. economic data. The USD remains relatively stable, keeping gold movement suppressed.
________________________________________
📉 Technical Analysis:
Key Resistance Levels:
• 4220
• 4230 – 4240
Nearest Support Levels:
• 4185 – 4180
• 4160 – 4150
EMA & Trend:
• Price is ranging around EMA 09, indicating lack of directional momentum.
• A confirmed H1/H4 close above 4215 signals bullish continuation.
• A breakdown below 4180 opens room toward 4160 – 4150.
Candlestick / Momentum Notes:
• Weak momentum, low volume → classic range-bound behavior.
• Rejection candles at 4220 show sellers defending the highs.
• Wick rejections near 4180 indicate buyers awaiting dips.
________________________________________
📌 Outlook:
Gold is likely to remain range-bound between 4180–4215 until a breakout occurs.
• Above 4215 → bullish bias toward 4230–4240
• Below 4180 → bearish bias toward 4160–4150
💡 Suggested Trading Plan:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD: 4227 – 4230
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
❌ SL: 4234
🔺 BUY XAU/USD: 4160 – 4157
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
❌ SL: 4154
Gold price analysis December 9Gold price has officially broken through the small trendline around 4200, opening a downward correction that may extend into today's European session. The target of this correction is likely to be the support zones below - where there is enough strength to bring the price back to the main uptrend.
A point of special note is the large trendline zone at 4150. This is not only an important milestone in the current wave structure, but also acts as the most potential and reliable buying zone in the context of the uptrend still dominating.
Trading strategy
🔸 BUY Trigger: Wait for a clear price rejection signal at the support zone 4170–4150
🎯 Target: 4290
⚠️ Risk: If the price breaks the trendline 4150 and H4 closes below this level, the strategy will switch to SELL priority when there is a confirmation signal.
XAUUSD may have done a false breakoutHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
this week is very strong to gold we are waiting the price to visit 4136 to buy the gold, and also we will buy again at 4068 IF THE PRICE GO DOWN THERE, then we will go up to 4375 AS A TP1 AND TO 4500 AS A TP2 , I THINK THE PRICE WILL VISIT THE BUY LIMITS WIDNESDAY .
good luck my friends.
Xau updatesGold is showing clear bearish pressure as price struggles to break above the recent resistance zone. Multiple rejections at the top indicate exhaustion from buyers. Market structure has shifted to the downside, confirming lower highs and weakness in bullish momentum.
A clean break below the intraday support can open the doors for a deeper correction. Liquidity is building below, and sellers may target those levels before any possible recovery.
Key Points:
Strong rejection from major resistance
Bearish market structure forming
Liquidity resting below current price
Expecting a short-term drop if support breaks
📌 This is a technical outlook, not financial advice. Manage risk properly
