Trade ideas
Gold Forecast - Trade Zones & Setup Before FOMCGold is still trading weak under the descending trendline and the price continues to reject the 4220–4230 resistance zone. As long as it stays below this area the chart suggests bearish pressure toward 4170 and possibly 4145–4130 where strong liquidity sits.
With the Fed rate decision tomorrow volatility is expected to increase so price may remain choppy within this range until the announcement. A clear bullish shift only comes if gold breaks and holds above 4225 which could reopen the path toward 4250–4260. For now structure remains bearish with lower-high formations and clean downside targets visible.
🔵 Buy Zone
- 4165–4175 → This is the main demand zone.
- Buy Trigger: A strong bullish candle / rejection wick from 4165–4170 confirms buyers stepping in.
- Upside Target: 4200 → 4220 → 4230.
🔴 Sell Zone
- 4220–4230 → Major supply + trendline resistance.
- Sell Trigger: If price retests 4220–4230 and gives rejection or bearish engulfing, downside resumes.
- Downside Target: 4170 → 4145 → 4130.
⚠️ Important Note (Fed Rates Tomorrow):
Before the announcement, gold may stay inside 4200–4170 range, so triggers will be cleaner after the news when volatility expands.
Note
Please risk management in trading is a Key so use your money accordingly. If you like the idea then please like and boost. Thank you and Good Luck!
XAU/USD Daily OutlookXAU/USD Daily Outlook – Price Still Favors a Retracement Before Any Bullish Continuation
Gold continues to trade inside a corrective structure on the H1 chart, with price reacting strongly from the demand zone around 4161–4170, which represents a strong low in the current bullish leg. Despite the latest bounce, market structure still leans bearish as long as the short-term lower-high sequence remains intact.
The chart highlights a clear Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside, followed by a liquidity sweep and a weak reaction toward the mid-range. This suggests that the market may test deeper liquidity pools before forming a high-probability long setup.
Key Technical Zones
Resistance Levels
4198 – 4205: Nearest intraday resistance and imbalance fill.
4220 – 4235: Fibonacci 61.8% retracement + previous CHoCH zone.
4250 – 4260: Higher-timeframe supply, weak high still intact.
Support Levels
4170 – 4161: Fresh demand zone and strong low (key structure).
4148 – 4155: Liquidity pocket below equal lows.
4135 – 4140: Final support before a structural shift on H4.
Trendline & EMA Context
Price is currently trading below the EMA20 and EMA50, confirming short-term bearish momentum.
The descending trendline from the recent swing high remains intact, suggesting the market may retest this trendline before continuing downward.
Fibonacci Confluence
Measured from the swing high to the recent low:
38.2% Fib → 4198 area (first reaction point)
61.8% Fib → 4225 zone (major sell interest)
This aligns with prior BOS and CHoCH areas — a strong confluence for possible bearish continuation.
Intraday Bias: Bearish Retracement
Current structure favors a move toward 4198 – 4205 to rebalance inefficiency before the next potential bearish leg toward 4161. If this strong low breaks, deeper liquidity targets become exposed.
Trading Strategies
1. Sell-the-Retracement Strategy
Sell Zone: 4198 – 4205
Stop Loss: Above 4212
Targets:
TP1: 4175
TP2: 4161
TP3: 4150
This setup aligns with EMA resistance, trendline touch, and Fibonacci confluence.
2. Break-and-Retest Long Setup
Trigger only if price protects the strong low at 4161.
Entry Zone: 4165 – 4170
Stop Loss: 4155
Targets:
TP1: 4198
TP2: 4220
TP3: 4235
This only activates if the market confirms bullish intention with a CHoCH on lower timeframes.
Market Outlook
Gold remains in a corrective phase. Liquidity beneath the strong low is key. As long as price trades below the 4220 supply zone, bearish retracement setups offer better risk–reward. Monitor how the market reacts around 4198; this level will define the direction for the rest of the session.
Gold Buying RecommendationI maintain my analytical approach. For any rebound, we should focus on the short-term resistance level around 4225-30. Our strategy remains focused on buying on dips and rebounds. Don't assume that Friday's pullback has dampened bullish sentiment. As long as the key support level of 4163-75 isn't broken, the bulls will likely make a comeback. On the downside, we continue to watch the short-term support level of 4190-95. Our strategy remains to buy on dips.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the key resistance level to watch is 4245-60, with short-term resistance at 4225-30. On the downside, we watch the key support level of 4165-75. Technically, the current consolidation suggests a bias towards buying on pullbacks.
Buy gold around 4175-4165, stop loss at 4157, target 4245-50, hold if it breaks through.
Gold bullish continuation pattern breakout The Gold remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a breakout within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 4193 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 4193 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
4284 – initial resistance
4313 – psychological and structural level
4350 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 4193 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
4161 – minor support
4134 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the Gold holds above 4193. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Gold – 4H Trendline Analysis (Updated)🟡 Gold – 4H Trendline Analysis (Updated)
The red bullish trendline is already broken and retested, meaning the bullish structure has weakened and the market is preparing for a possible shift.
However — the sell side is NOT activated yet.
📉 Sell Activation Rule
A sell becomes valid ONLY after price breaks and closes below the 4176 zone.
Why this level?
4176 is the last protective support of the current structure.
Breaking it confirms:
Loss of bullish momentum
Break + retest of the red trendline turning into bearish
Bearish continuation toward 4128 → 4090
So even though the red trendline has already been broken, the official sell trigger remains at 4176.
📌 Until 4176 Breaks
The market is still not bearish.
No sell positions are activated.
Price may still fluctuate inside the structure or retest upper levels.
The gold price trend is unstoppable.Pricing Logic: U.S. Treasury Yield Anchor Fails, Central Bank Gold Purchases Become Core Driver
Old Framework Collapses, New Logic Establishes
The traditional pricing anchor of "gold’s negative correlation with U.S. Treasury yields" has collapsed. A rare phenomenon of "synchronized rally in gold prices and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields" has emerged over the past three weeks. The core driver lies in the declining credibility of the global monetary system and the demand for "de-dollarization," which have promoted the restructuring of the pricing framework.
Currently, gold’s trend is more susceptible to the influence of "central bank gold purchase scale, changes in U.S. dollar credit, and the degree of spot shortage." This transformation has reduced gold’s sensitivity to U.S. Treasury yield fluctuations by more than 30%, significantly enhancing its resilience during pullbacks.
Central Bank Gold Purchases Exceed Expectations
Global central bank gold purchases have exceeded 1,000 tons for three consecutive years, reaching 1,045 tons in 2024. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has increased its gold reserves for three consecutive months, with holdings rising to 73.45 million ounces by the end of January. The demand for asset diversification among emerging market central banks has formed a rigid support.
The $4,180–$4,200 range is not only a technical support level but also the core cost zone for global central bank gold purchases, establishing a strong bottom logic of "official buying interest emerging once prices fall below this range."
Gold trading strategy for next week
buy：4180-4190
tp:4200-4220-4250
sl:4170
Gold Awakens: Sharp Pullback but Outlook Remains BrightFrom a technical perspective, gold is currently moving within a parallel ascending channel, showing a clear bullish momentum with a rhythm that is hard to ignore. The price recently bounced away from the resistance area, indicating a typical overbought reaction. At the moment, the market is approaching the lower boundary of this projected channel, an area considered important. The convergence of several technical support levels in this zone is likely to attract renewed buying interest.
I expect the price to rebound toward the 4,250 area, which aligns with the mid-channel region. The bullish momentum may not appear immediately. The situation could develop into a consolidation phase, a false decline, or even a sudden acceleration.
XAU/USD Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of XAUUSD (Gold) – Bullish Reversal Expectation
Timeframe: 1H
Current Price: ~ 4189
Indicators:
50 EMA (blue) above price → short-term bearish momentum recently
200 EMA (black) touched → strong long-term support
Key Support Zone: 4160 – 4170 area successfully held
Market Structure Insight
Price bounced strongly from the major support zone where liquidity was grabbed below previous lows.
Rejection candle off the 200 EMA + support region indicates buyers stepped in aggressively.
Expected scenario: Market may form a higher low → start bullish continuation.
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Bullish Forecast Path
The sketched projection shows:
1. Pullback and retest near 50 EMA (4210 zone)
2. Break of structure highs
3. Continuation to targets
Target Levels
Level Purpose
4264 First take profit / previous structure top
4300 Final target / strong resistance
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Key Confirmation Required
For the bullish plan to stay valid:
Price must hold above 4160 zone
Break and close above 4208–4215 for continuation strength
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Trade Idea Concept
> Buy from support zone retest or break above 4210
SL: below 4155
TP1: 4264
TP2: 4300
Mr SMC Trading point
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Overall Idea Summary
Strong bullish rejection from key support
Liquidity sweep + EMA confluence
High potential for reversal continuation
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Gold still holding a bullish momentum Gold has refuse to break below 4163 it tried yesterday and the early hour of today but it still holding strong i expect Gold to rally back up to 4240 or higher but base on Fundamental please apply some risk management in place ...let watch and see and please comment what you think on gold direction .
Thanks
XAUUSD Buy Signal ScalpingGOLD. Buy 4204
TP¹ 4408
TP² 4211
TP³ 4214
TP⁴ 4217
SL...4194
Not a financial advice
USE PROPER MONEY MANAGEMENT CONSISTENCY
0812 Before FOMC, gold trading plan on Monday.Hello traders,
1. This Week’s Core Event: Fed December FOMC Meeting (Rate decision announced at 3:00 AM Beijing time on Dec 11)
- The focus isn’t the widely expected 25bp rate cut, but whether the Fed will restart "new bond purchases" (to replenish bank reserves). This will shape global liquidity for the next 6 months and also determine the Bank of Japan’s rate hike decision next month. Watch for statements like "using Treasury bill operations to maintain ample reserves" in the policy statement/Powell’s press conference, as well as the dot plot’s stance on consecutive rate cuts.
2. Short-Term Gold Trend Logic
- Gold will trade in a consolidation range before the FOMC meeting. It needs to reclaim above 4200 to confirm the uptrend; otherwise, a deeper pullback may follow. The expected range pre-meeting is 4160–4220 (current levels).
Gold Trading Plan (EU/US Sessions, Monday)
Fundamental Context
Gold is consolidating between 4160-4220 amid FOMC expectations, awaiting clarity on liquidity direction. Combined with the chart pattern, we’ll focus on long positions supported by the EMA zone in the short term.
Specific Trading Strategy
- Entry Condition:
Go long with a light position if price stabilizes in the 4200-4210 range (EMA support zone on the chart) during EU/US sessions (e.g., bullish candlestick patterns like a hammer or bullish engulfing).
- Stop-Loss:
Set stop-loss at 4190 (below the short-term EMA support and the key 4200 level).
- Take-Profit Targets:
1st target: 4244 (TP1 on the chart); 2nd target: 4266 (TP2 on the chart).
- Position Rules:
Keep single-position size ≤5% before the FOMC meeting (Dec 11 early morning). Partial profit-taking is allowed if TP1 is hit, while holding a small core position for post-meeting direction.
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!
XAUUSD AND A PENDANT ON THE 1H TIME FRAMEHI GUYS GOLD HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE BOTTOM OF A PENDANT SITTING ON A CONSOLIDATED RANGE
IS TIS A VALID PATTREN OR IS IT JUST A TRIANGULAR PATTERN
IN ANY CASE IT HAS BROKEN THROUGH THE BOTTOM OOF THIS PATTERN A
lets have a clear look at what the indicators are telling us
on the 30min time line
we see the rsi is under 30 this a bearish signal
looking at the price action we see a bearish flag clear as day forming
we see that btcoin is also under the ichimoku cloud
on the 1 hour we still see bitcoin is under the cloud
the flag is more condensed the bearish flag is clear
the 4h time line shows just a sight reversal a standard pattern be fore more down swing.
in terms of indicatords
the rsi on the 30min is bearish under 50 it stays in this pisiton up till the 4h time line
giving a strong indication that for the 30min time line for a short positon
the macd
on the 30min the macd is showing a bullish cross over but there was no strong up swing rather the bearish flag where the market moved upwards in a sides was manner
the 1h time is also showing a potential cross over to bullish on the macd
the 4h is showing no turn signal
the adx
the adx is sitting under 20 from the 30 right up to the 4h timeline
to me this is a clear indication of the range we are currently in on gold
so horizontal support and resistance breaking is the key to a turn of events
a triangular pattern inside the range can also be used as a break out pattern and the bearish flag froming under the pattern is a good indicator for a sell
the indicators mentioned supports this also but as we know
with out a confirmation of a sell we need to trade with cuation
if you going to ender short on this trade enter with a small lot size wait for the break at
4183 for a early entry
other wise wait for a close below 4175 a strong close below this could be a confirmation of the bearish flag .
XAU/USD: Gold Rejected at 4,228, Risks Drop to 4,172Gold is struggling in its recovery efforts as prices continue to react negatively at the resistance zone of 4,228. Although the USD shows slight signs of weakening, the overall market sentiment remains cautious as investors await inflation data and new signals from the Fed next week.
In this context, the short-term structure indicates that gold is leaning towards a corrective downtrend – aligning with the sell strategy on the rebound.
📊 MMF Technical Outlook (M30)
🔸 1. Rising Wedge Pattern Has Broken Down
Gold has just broken the “rising wedge” pattern – a clear signal of weakening momentum. The current rebound is merely a retest of the broken structure zone, easily forming a lower high → continued decline.
🔸 2. Important Supply Zone
4,226 – 4,229 → Supply Zone + the starting point of the previous strong decline
If the price touches this zone with weak signals, sellers are likely to regain dominance.
🔸 3. Liquidity Zone – Price Attraction Target
4,172 – 4,173 → Liquidity zone + strong demand + wedge bottom
This is the zone where the market is likely to pull the price during the session.
🎯 MMF Trading Plan – Priority to SELL
▶️ Main Scenario – SELL on the rebound
If the price rebounds to the supply zone:
🔹 SELL zone: 4,226 – 4,229
🔹 SL: above 4,235
🔹 TP1: 4,190
🔹 TP2: 4,172 (main target)
Reason: Price retests the broken resistance + downward momentum remains strong → attractive R:R entry.
▶️ Alternative Scenario – Price drops directly
If the price does not rebound sufficiently to 4,228:
🔹 Wait for a small retest around 4,205 – 4,208 → SELL
🔹 Target remains 4,172
🧭 MMF Daily Bias
Preferred trend: Bearish as long as the price is below 4,228
Strategy: Sell on the rebound – target 4,172
Invalidation: M30 candle closes above 4,235
Note: Volatility may increase near important US news.
XAUUSD Analysis TodayXAUUSD Analysis Today – Key Levels, Liquidity Map and High-Probability Trading Plan
Gold is currently retracing after a clear fake breakout on the intraday structure, showing strong rejection from the extended premium zone. Price action on H1 reflects a shift from bullish exhaustion to short-term corrective movement, with liquidity sitting below the most recent swing low. Today’s session will likely revolve around sweeps, mitigation, and a return to discounted zones before any meaningful continuation.
1. Market Structure Overview
The H1 chart shows:
A completed ascending channel with a clear BOS followed by a liquidity sweep.
Price rejecting from the upper imbalance and returning toward equilibrium.
A notable Fake Breakout around 4214–4218 where liquidity was engineered before the sell-off.
The current decline is forming a corrective leg aimed toward the demand range.
This price behavior confirms a move into the BUY ZONE 4168–4186, aligning with Fibonacci retracement and trendline confluence.
2. Important Support & Resistance Levels
Key Resistance
4252–4257: Major supply and premium zone, strong rejection expected on first touch.
4220–4225: Reaction zone where the fake breakout occurred; a retest here may create another liquidity hunt.
Key Support
4201–4208: First reaction demand zone, shallow pullback potential.
4186–4174: Deep discount area, Fibonacci confluence, major BUY ZONE.
4168: Strong low protected by higher-timeframe liquidity.
3. Indicator Confluence
EMA Cluster (20/50/100) is compressing downward, confirming short-term correction.
RSI shows no bullish divergence yet, meaning the sweep of liquidity is still incomplete.
Fibonacci 61.8–78.6% aligns with the 4174–4168 zone, increasing probability of bullish reversal.
4. Expected Price Behavior Today
Scenario A (High Probability):
Price continues toward 4174–4168, sweeps liquidity, then forms a bullish CHoCH on lower timeframe before aiming for 4208 → 4220 → 4252.
Scenario B (Moderate Probability):
Price rejects early at 4201, retraces into 4220 supply, then drops again to deeper levels before reversing.
Scenario C (Low Probability):
Immediate bullish break above 4225 without retesting deeper zones.
5. Trading Strategy (High-Probability Setups)
Buy Strategy – Preferred Setup
Entry: 4174–4168 (Fibonacci + strong demand)
Stop Loss: Below 4160
Take Profit:
TP1: 4208
TP2: 4220
TP3: 4252–4257
This zone is optimal due to liquidity, trendline tap, and deep retracement discount.
Sell Strategy – Counter-trend Short
Entry: 4220–4225 (fake breakout zone retest)
SL: Above 4232
TP: 4205 → 4186
This trade targets the inevitable sweep to the BUY ZONE.
6. Summary
Gold is in a short-term corrective phase inside a larger bullish macro sentiment. Key liquidity remains below, and the most effective strategy today is waiting for deeper discount zones before looking for strong buys.
XAU/USD) Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of XAUUSD Trade Idea Breakdown (1H Chart)
Your chart reflects a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) + Fibonacci retracement + liquidity sweep model.
The idea is well-structured and follows a typical pullback → mitigation → expansion sequence.
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1. Current Market Structure
Price is currently around 4215.
Market is in a clear uptrend (higher highs, higher lows).
Candles show bullish momentum but the chart suggests price is in a premium zone (overbought area), due for a correction.
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2. Expected Pullback Zone (Entry Area)
You marked a high-probability discount demand zone:
Buy Zone: 4172 – 4185
This area aligns with:
Fibonacci 0.62 – 0.79
0.705 sweet-spot entry
Previous demand block
200 EMA + 50 EMA convergence acting as dynamic support
This zone is ideal for:
Liquidity grab + bullish reversal
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3. Anticipated Price Action
Your projection shows:
1. Price first drops into the blue demand zone
2. Hits the 0.705 / 0.79 fib area
3. Forms a bullish rejection
4. Then breaks structure upward
5. Begins a bullish impulse targeting new higher highs
This is a typical SMC “retrace → BOS → continuation” model.
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4. Upside Targets
You have 2 projected take-profit levels:
TP1: 4,233
First major liquidity pool
Aligns with an internal range high
Realistic target for intraday trading
TP2: 4,270
More extended target
Next external liquidity
Matches a larger swing high
Both targets fit the structure perfectly.
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5. Summary of the Idea
Component Direction
Trend Bullish
Expected move Pullback → Buy → Breakout
Buy zone 4172–4185
Confirmation Reversal + BOS
TP1 4233
TP2 4270
Mr SMC Trading point
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Overall Evaluation
Your analysis is clean, logical, and follows SMC principles correctly:
Trend aligned
Demand zone valid
FIB confluence
Multiple liquidity targets
Good structure projections
This is a strong bullish continuation setup as long as price holds above 4170.
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12.11 Gold (Euro-US Session) - Bearish Trading PlanHello traders,
Core Logic: Fed's hawkish rate cut suppresses gold; bearish sentiment dominates.
I. Bearish Drivers
Key factors for gold weakness:
• Dovish Hopes Crushed: Fed signals only 1 more 2025 cut, dashing easing cycle expectations.
• Policy Uncertainty: Powell's "patient" tone + 3 dissents (most since 2019) boost caution.
• Profit-Taking: "Buy rumor, sell fact" triggered Asian session pullback, extending bearishness.
II. Key Levels
Type Level Rationale
Short Entry 4215-4220 1H EMA13 + rebound resistance
Key Resistance 4227 Asian session pre-dive peak
TP1 4172 Short-term core support
TP2 4153 Medium-term support
TP3 4143 Recent range low support
Stop-Loss 4242 Above intraday high
III. Trading Strategies
1. Primary: Short on Rebound
Enter short at 4218-4220 (4215-4220 range with bearish candles: engulfing/long upper wicks).
• TP Plan: 4172 (cut 40%) → 4153 (cut 40%) → 4143 (close 20%)
• SL: 4242
2. Secondary: Short on Breakdown
Enter short at 4198-4200 if gold breaks 4200 (with 30%+ volume surge).
• TP: Same as primary (4172→4153→4143)
• SL: 4215
IV. Core Risk Rules
• Max position per trade: ≤5%; no averaging down
• Trigger SL → exit immediately; no SL adjustments
• If gold closes above 4242 for 15 mins: close all shorts, no new trades
• Avoid positions during US data/Fed speeches
V. Key Notes
1. Follow Fed-driven trend; use tech levels for entry/exit.
2. Close positions early if price spikes through TPs.
3. Valid for Dec 11 Euro-US session; adjust for market structure changes.
Good Luck!
LESS IS MORE!
Gold Intraday Market Recap & Trading StrategyThe gold trended with a bullish bias in high-range consolidation following a dip and rebound today. After the Federal Reserve's rate cut announcement in the early hours, prices surged sharply before paring some gains, yet they steadfastly held above the key 4200 level throughout the session. During the Asian trading session, London gold hit an intraday high of 4247.50, then pulled back to an intraday low of 4204.04.
Having previously broken out of the 4170–4220 consolidation range, prices once rallied to 4239 right after the rate cut, maintaining a strong posture in high-level trading without being disrupted by the short-term pullback. The bullish momentum is jointly underpinned by fundamental tailwinds from the rate cut and stabilizing technical signals.
Key Levels:
Resistance Zones: The immediate key resistance lies in the 4250–4260 range. A decisive breakout above this zone would likely pave the way for a further advance toward 4280–4300.
Support Zones: The 4200 mark acts as a robust intraday support. Further downside support is anchored in the 4175–4180 range, a level that has proven its resilience through multiple tests in previous sessions.
Trading Strategy:
Buy 4200 - 4210
SL 4190
TP 4240 - 4250 - 4260
Sell 4260 - 4270
SL 4280
TP 4230 - 4220 - 4210
GOLD (XAUUSD) – Major Breakdown Setup FormingGOLD (XAUUSD) – Major Breakdown Setup Forming
Bias: Strong Bearish (Medium to Long Term)
Structure: Multi-Quarter Symmetrical Triangle → Bearish Resolution Expected
Potential Downside Target: 3400 – 3420
1. Pattern Overview
Chart shows a large symmetrical triangle forming at the top:
Lower highs from the all-time high → indicating declining momentum.
Higher lows, but weaker than demand normally seen in strong trends.
A compressing structure, which usually leads to a violent breakout.
This specific triangle structure—after a massive parabolic rise—is statistically more likely to break downward.
The market is:
Losing momentum at every new high
Creating sharp rejection wicks
Failing to sustain impulses above resistance
All of this supports expectation of a massive fall.
2. Why a Fall Toward 3400 Is Logical
Downside target of 3400 aligns with multiple technical factors:
A. Height of Triangle Projection
Measure of triangle height ≈ 500–550 USD.
If breakdown occurs near 3900–3950,
then the projected target becomes:
3950 – 550 = 3400 approx.
3. Price Action Confirmations (Already Visible)
Massive rejection candle near triangle top
Repeated long-wick failures
Momentum divergence on higher timeframes
Volatility compression before breakout
Compression → Expansion.
The expansion here is highly likely to be downward.
Final View
Gold is preparing for a very large bearish move.
The symmetrical triangle at the top suggests the market is exhausted, and the next major impulse is downward.
Target of 3400 levels is:
Technically correct
Mathematically projected
Liquidity-confirmed
Perfectly aligned with triangle breakdown rules
Supported by price action weakness
This is a high-probability medium-term bearish setup.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes and not investment advice. Please manage risk carefully.
Gold (XAU/USD) — pre-FOMC technical + fundamental setupOn the 15-min chart we see repeated rejections off the same resistance zone horizontal supply + a down sloping trendline. Each attempt has failed so far. That suggests bearish bias in the short-term.
The current structure supports a potential drop toward ~ 4160 (support zone), assuming gold remains under the resistance trendline.
~ Key wildcard: tonight’s FOMC decision. Markets are pricing in a 25 bps rate cut with high probability. If the Fed cuts and delivers dovish guidance, gold could rally possibly invalidating the bearish setup.
✅ But if the Fed cuts while signalling a cautious stance or a pause in easing, the dollar/yields could bounce reinforcing gold’s bearish technical structure and likely triggering the projected move down toward ~ 4160.
PLAN A (base case): Stay short under resistance, target ~ 4160.
PLAN B (if FOMC surprises dovish): Watch for break above trendline on breakout, avoid new shorts; consider potential longs if follow-through appears (momentum + candle confirmation).
Fundamental lens: Gold is inherently sensitive to real interest rates and Fed policy. Dovish Fed = bullish for non-yielding safe-havens like gold; hawkish/dovishmpause tone = bearish or consolidative. Given mixed US data and sticky risk sentiment, the post-FOMC reaction could be swift and volatile.
consider waiting for the post-announcement move rather than pre-loading a large position. Use tight risk control (stop-loss above resistance if short; if buying after a break, wait for retest + confirmation).
XAUUSD – LONG ACCUMULATION (Weekly/Monthly)XAUUSD – LONG ACCUMULATION (Weekly/Monthly)Entering BUY at current levels: 4180–4200
Final Target: 4500–4600+ (Breakout Q1 2026)
Stop Loss: 4000 (below major trendline) Pattern repeating: 2024 Dec sideways → 2025 mirror setup. Jan 2026 bull leg incoming after accumulation.NOT financial advice
DYOR | Trade at your own risk!#XAUUSD #Gold #GoldTrading #Bullish #PreciousMetals #Forex #Commodities #Trading #InvestingStacking time – who’s in?
This is only for big investors and this is swing trade.. So be careful
Gold Watch: Range-Bound Action Until FOMC, Macro Factors in PlayGold Market Analysis — Key Levels in Focus
Gold is currently trading around 4184, showing mixed momentum as the market reacts to multiple macro factors.
Key levels:
Support 1: 4176
Support 2: 4150
Resistance 1: 4218
Resistance 2: 4245
For now, gold is expected to range between 4150 and 4245 ahead of the FOMC announcement.
Bullish case: Increasing chances of a rate cut could push gold to higher levels.
Bearish case: External factors, including China and Japan economic developments, may trigger a downward move toward 4080, especially if the second support (4150) is broken.
Observation: The market remains sensitive to macro developments, and price may oscillate within the range until clear directional catalysts emerge.
Gold Continues to Range; Awaiting Breakout📊 Market Overview:
Gold continues to trade within a tight range 4180 – 4215, reflecting strong market indecision as traders await upcoming U.S. economic data. The USD remains relatively stable, keeping gold movement suppressed.
________________________________________
📉 Technical Analysis:
Key Resistance Levels:
• 4220
• 4230 – 4240
Nearest Support Levels:
• 4185 – 4180
• 4160 – 4150
EMA & Trend:
• Price is ranging around EMA 09, indicating lack of directional momentum.
• A confirmed H1/H4 close above 4215 signals bullish continuation.
• A breakdown below 4180 opens room toward 4160 – 4150.
Candlestick / Momentum Notes:
• Weak momentum, low volume → classic range-bound behavior.
• Rejection candles at 4220 show sellers defending the highs.
• Wick rejections near 4180 indicate buyers awaiting dips.
________________________________________
📌 Outlook:
Gold is likely to remain range-bound between 4180–4215 until a breakout occurs.
• Above 4215 → bullish bias toward 4230–4240
• Below 4180 → bearish bias toward 4160–4150
💡 Suggested Trading Plan:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD: 4227 – 4230
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
❌ SL: 4234
🔺 BUY XAU/USD: 4160 – 4157
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
❌ SL: 4154
