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Financial Crises, Contagion, and Systemic Risk1. Introduction Financial crises have been recurring features of the global economy, often bringing devastating consequences to nations, markets, and households. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, and the 1930s Great Depression are stark reminders of the fragility of financial systems. These crises are not isolated events but often spread across markets and borders through interconnected channels—a phenomenon known as financial contagion. Underlying these episodes is the concept of systemic risk, which captures the potential for a local shock to destabilize an entire financial system. Understanding the dynamics of financial crises, contagion, and systemic risk is vital for investors, policymakers, and regulators. This essay explores the causes, mechanisms, and implications of financial crises, the pathways of contagion, and the nature of systemic risk in the modern, globalized financial landscape. 2. Understanding Financial Crises 2.1 Definition and Nature A financial crisis occurs when financial markets or institutions experience a sharp loss of value and functionality, leading to disruptions in credit flows, liquidity shortages, and sharp declines in asset prices. Crises can arise in various forms—banking crises, currency crises, sovereign debt crises, or asset price bubbles. According to economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, financial crises share a “this-time-is-different” mentality, where excessive optimism blinds investors and policymakers to risks. Typically, a period of financial boom, high leverage, and speculative investment precedes a crisis, which eventually ends in panic and market correction. 2.2 Historical Context The Great Depression (1929–1939): Triggered by a stock market crash in the U.S., it led to global economic contraction, massive unemployment, and bank failures. The Asian Financial Crisis (1997–1998): Began in Thailand with the collapse of the baht and spread rapidly across Southeast Asia due to investor panic and capital flight. The Global Financial Crisis (2008): Originating in the U.S. housing market and subprime mortgage sector, it spread worldwide due to the interconnectedness of global finance. Each episode demonstrated how vulnerabilities in one part of the financial system can trigger chain reactions across sectors and borders. 3. Causes of Financial Crises Financial crises arise from a combination of microeconomic behaviors and macroeconomic imbalances. Major causes include: 3.1 Excessive Leverage and Risk-Taking Financial institutions often increase leverage—borrowing more relative to their equity—to amplify returns. However, when asset prices decline, leverage magnifies losses, threatening solvency. In 2008, investment banks like Lehman Brothers were highly leveraged (30:1), making them extremely vulnerable to market downturns. 3.2 Asset Bubbles Speculative bubbles occur when asset prices rise far beyond their intrinsic value due to investor exuberance. When expectations reverse, the bubble bursts, triggering widespread losses. Classic examples include the dot-com bubble (2000) and the U.S. housing bubble (2006–2007). 3.3 Maturity and Liquidity Mismatch Banks typically fund long-term loans with short-term deposits. When confidence erodes, depositors may withdraw funds en masse—a bank run—leading to liquidity crises. The collapse of Northern Rock in 2007 exemplified this mismatch. 3.4 Poor Regulation and Moral Hazard Financial liberalization without adequate regulation often encourages excessive risk-taking. Moral hazard arises when institutions believe they are “too big to fail” and expect government bailouts, thus engaging in reckless behavior. 3.5 External Shocks Global events—such as sharp oil price changes, geopolitical tensions, or pandemics—can also trigger financial crises by affecting investor sentiment, capital flows, and market stability. 4. Contagion: The Spread of Financial Crises 4.1 Definition and Mechanisms Financial contagion refers to the spread of financial shocks from one institution, market, or country to others. It represents the “domino effect” in financial systems, where panic or losses in one region transmit rapidly across the globe. Contagion operates through both real and financial channels: Real channels involve trade linkages—declining demand in one country affects exports of trading partners. Financial channels involve capital flows, asset correlations, and investor behavior. 4.2 Channels of Contagion Common Investors: International funds holding assets in multiple countries may sell holdings across markets during crises, causing synchronized declines. Bank Linkages: Global banks with cross-border exposures transmit shocks through the interbank lending market. Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Movements: Currency devaluations in one country can pressure neighboring countries to devalue or raise interest rates. Investor Herding and Panic: Behavioral contagion occurs when investors mimic others, driven by fear and uncertainty. Information Asymmetry: Lack of transparent information leads investors to generalize risk across regions, withdrawing capital indiscriminately. 4.3 Examples of Financial Contagion Asian Financial Crisis (1997): Thailand’s currency collapse spread rapidly to Malaysia, Indonesia, and South Korea, even though fundamentals differed. Global Financial Crisis (2008): The fall of Lehman Brothers triggered global panic, freezing credit markets and causing stock markets worldwide to plunge. European Sovereign Debt Crisis (2010–2012): Fiscal problems in Greece affected bond markets in Portugal, Spain, and Italy due to shared eurozone exposure. 4.4 Empirical Evidence Empirical studies show that contagion tends to intensify during crises due to rising correlation between asset returns. For instance, during 2008–2009, correlations among global equity markets surged, reducing diversification benefits and amplifying systemic risk. 5. Systemic Risk: The Core of Financial Fragility 5.1 Definition Systemic risk is the risk that the failure of a single financial institution or market segment will cause cascading failures, threatening the stability of the entire financial system. It arises from interconnectedness, complexity, and common exposures across institutions. According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), systemic risk embodies “the risk of disruption to financial services caused by impairment of all or parts of the financial system, with potential serious negative consequences for the real economy.” 5.2 Sources of Systemic Risk Interconnected Financial Networks: Banks, hedge funds, and insurers are linked through lending, derivatives, and payment systems. Too-Big-to-Fail (TBTF) Institutions: Large institutions like JPMorgan or Citigroup can cause systemic collapse if they fail, leading to government intervention. Shadow Banking System: Non-bank entities engaged in credit intermediation (e.g., money market funds, securitization vehicles) lack regulatory oversight but carry significant risk. Procyclicality: During booms, leverage and asset prices rise together, but when the cycle reverses, the same mechanisms amplify losses. 5.3 Models of Systemic Risk Network Models: Analyze how financial linkages transmit shocks. A dense network can either absorb small shocks or spread large ones rapidly. CoVaR (Conditional Value at Risk): Measures how much one institution contributes to system-wide risk. SRISK: Estimates the capital shortfall a financial institution would face during systemic crises. 5.4 Examples of Systemic Risk in Action Lehman Brothers (2008): Its bankruptcy triggered a liquidity freeze across the global financial system, forcing governments to rescue other institutions. AIG (2008): The insurer’s exposure to credit default swaps (CDS) required a $182 billion U.S. government bailout to prevent global contagion. Long-Term Capital Management (1998): A hedge fund with massive leveraged positions almost caused systemic failure before coordinated central bank intervention. 6. The Role of Central Banks and Governments 6.1 Lender of Last Resort Central banks play a critical role in crisis management by providing emergency liquidity to solvent but illiquid banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interventions in 2008—such as the Term Auction Facility and quantitative easing—helped restore liquidity and confidence. 6.2 Fiscal Support and Bailouts Governments may provide capital injections, guarantees, or nationalizations to stabilize critical institutions. The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in the U.S. and European Stability Mechanism (ESM) in the eurozone exemplify such efforts. 6.3 International Cooperation Institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) offer financial assistance and policy advice during crises. Coordination among central banks (e.g., swap lines) helps stabilize global liquidity. 7. Preventing and Managing Systemic Crises 7.1 Macroprudential Regulation Regulators now focus on systemic stability rather than individual institutions. Tools include: Countercyclical capital buffers Liquidity coverage ratios Stress testing Leverage limits 7.2 Resolution Mechanisms The creation of resolution frameworks ensures that failing institutions can be wound down without taxpayer bailouts. The Dodd-Frank Act (2010) in the U.S. introduced “living wills” for large banks to manage orderly failures. 7.3 Transparency and Risk Monitoring Improved data sharing and disclosure reduce information asymmetry. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) monitors global systemic risks and coordinates regulatory reforms. 7.4 Role of Technology and Big Data Advanced analytics, AI, and blockchain enhance risk detection and transaction transparency. Regulators use RegTech to monitor real-time financial stability indicators. 8. Behavioral Aspects of Financial Crises Human psychology plays a pivotal role in creating and amplifying financial instability: Herd Behavior: Investors follow the crowd, ignoring fundamentals. Overconfidence: Market participants overestimate their ability to manage risk. Loss Aversion: Fear of losses causes panic selling during downturns. Moral Hazard: Belief in bailouts encourages risk-taking. Behavioral finance highlights that market irrationality often drives asset bubbles and panic phases, making crisis prediction difficult. 9. Globalization and the Amplification of Contagion The integration of global markets has intensified interdependence. While globalization facilitates capital mobility and diversification, it also magnifies vulnerabilities: Cross-border banking linkages transmit shocks rapidly. International investors move funds instantly in response to news. Emerging markets are especially exposed to capital flow reversals and currency volatility. Digitalization and high-frequency trading have further increased the speed of contagion—financial panic now spreads in hours rather than weeks. 10. Lessons from Past Crises Transparency is crucial: Hidden leverage and off-balance-sheet risks often trigger crises. Capital adequacy must be maintained: Stronger buffers help absorb shocks. Global coordination matters: Isolated national policies cannot address global contagion. Moral hazard must be controlled: Regulation should prevent excessive risk-taking by large institutions. Crisis preparedness: Regular stress tests and crisis simulations enhance system resilience. 11. Future Outlook and Emerging Risks As financial systems evolve, new forms of systemic risk emerge: Cyber Risk: Cyberattacks on banks or payment systems could paralyze global finance. Climate Risk: Physical and transition risks from climate change may impact asset valuations. Crypto and Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Lack of regulation and interconnectivity between crypto assets and traditional finance can generate new contagion channels. Artificial Intelligence and Algorithmic Trading: Automation could amplify volatility during shocks. Regulatory frameworks must evolve continuously to manage these emerging threats while balancing innovation and stability. 12. Conclusion Financial crises, contagion, and systemic risk are deeply interwoven aspects of modern finance. The complexity and interconnectedness of global markets mean that localized shocks can rapidly escalate into systemic events, endangering economies and livelihoods. While improved regulation, technology, and international cooperation have strengthened financial systems since 2008, vulnerabilities persist—especially amid globalization, digitalization, and geopolitical uncertainty. To prevent future crises, policymakers must adopt a macroprudential and forward-looking approach, balancing innovation with stability. Understanding the mechanisms of contagion and the roots of systemic risk is essential not only for regulators but for investors and societies at large. Ultimately, financial stability is not merely a technical issue—it is a cornerstone of economic and social resilience.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold continues its powerful ascent, extending gains and printing new all-time highs in nearly every session. Price is currently trending near 4,235 — an intraday resistance level — while momentum remains firm, showing sustained buyer dominance. If price reclaims and holds above 4,235, the next resistance sits at 4,257, followed by 4,280 as an extended upside target. Immediate support is seen at 4,205, and if a deeper pullback develops, watch the First Reaction Zone (4,176–4,150) for potential re-entry opportunities. The broader bias remains bullish with MA50 and MA200 continuing to provide dynamic trend support. 📌Key levels to watch: Resistance: 4235 4264 4280 Support: 4205 4176 4150 4112 4082 🔎Fundamental Focus: Markets are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner rather than later, boosting gold’s appeal as lower yields reduce the cost of holding the metal. At the same time, the U.S. government shutdown is adding another layer of uncertainty, freezing data releases and shaking confidence in fiscal management. Tensions between the U.S. and China, along with political instability in parts of Europe and Asia, continue to weigh on global risk sentiment. Meanwhile, central banks and large funds keep accumulating gold as a hedge against debt, inflation, and a weakening dollar. Together, these forces have created an environment with no clear ceiling for gold, as every dip is met with strong buying and momentum keeps pushing prices to new record highs.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by azgoldtrader
XAUUSD: Targeting New Highs After PullbackKey Observations: Recent Momentum: The market has shown strong recent bullish (upward) momentum, indicated by a series of large green candles leading up to the current price level. Current Price: The current price is around $4,102.61. Continuation Pattern: The analysis shows a bullish continuation pattern overlaid on the chart (the black curved line and green arrow). This suggests the trader anticipates a brief pullback followed by a strong move up to the target. The anticipated pattern resembles a potential bull flag/pennant or an "S-curve" retest before continuation. Entry/Pullback Zone: The immediate blue zone below the current price (around $4,085 - $4,090) and the lower blue zone (around $4,060 - $4,067) represent likely support areas where a pullback might occur before the rally resumes. Trading Setup Details: Target (Take Profit): $4,130.20 (A clear horizontal resistance or projected high). Stop Loss (Risk Limit): $4,045.45 (Placed well below the lower support zone, indicating a protective measure against a reversal of the bullish trend). Conclusion: The analysis is strongly bullish. The setup is based on expecting the current upward trend to continue after a minor technical correction/retest of a key support level.
GBEBROKERS:XAUUSDLong
by fx_martin9
2
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone, Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week. We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3907 and a gap below at 3880. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 3907 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3907 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3937 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3937 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3965 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3965 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3993 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3993 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 4019 BEARISH TARGETS 3880 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3880 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3848 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3848 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 3819 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3819 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3781 3743 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
43
Gold Targeting #4,100.80 - #4,200.80 ahead of #4,500.80 markAs discussed throughout my last week's commentary: 'Technical analysis: Gold reversed on Intra-day basis (even though DX is Trading near multi-session High’s, from now on / main correlation for the fractal) as Price-action was isolated within Neutral Rectangle which has Lower High's / High's - Low's. As I've mentioned before, current slide was nothing more but sweep to cool down Overbought levels however not discontinuation of Ascending Channel on bigger charts.. Hourly 4 chart's timeframe should turn green any minute now and as long as Price-action meets strong Support near #4,000.80 psychological benchmark which is showcasing strong rejection point, I expect test-and-break of the #4,052.80 - #4,057.80 zone which can extend Buying sequence widely above #4,100.80 psychological benchmark, preserving trendline on Hourly 4 chart which is Supporting the uptrend and rejecting every downside attempt since late September / early October fractal. It is worth noting that if #4,052.80 - #4,057.80 Short-term Resistance zone rejects current recovery attempt, #3rd Top on mentioned belt which is guarding the upside will be formed as Gold will be isolated within #2 strong trendlines until one of the levels break and delivers major move on the aftermath (I lean to the Bullish side as well).' My position: I have been Buying Gold throughout Friday's session all along and Buying Gold firstly in #3,972.80 - #3,992.80 Neutral Rectangle waiting for the break-out to the upside. I had reached my Buying Profit Intra-day quota within the belt and started my usual Medium-term Buy orders positioning. I have Bought Gold (Medium-term) on #3,992.80 Support for the fractal as Gold was unable to break above #4,022.80 Resistance however my Stop was triggered on #3,985.80. I Bought Gold again on #3,978.80 again with #3,962.80 Stop and over the weekend / this morning my #4,042.80 Take Profit is hit, confirming my thesis that Traders shouldn't Sell Gold at all cost and turn to Buying this market. Each Selling momentum is just another sweep before Buyers arise and take Gold on upper levels. I do expect #4,100.80 benchmark to be met within #1 - #2 week horizon before #4,200.80 which is posing as my Medium-term Target. I achieved my weekly Profit and will take it easy from now.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by goldenBear88
2
GOLD – Bullish Above 4011 Ahead of Tariff TensionsGOLD – Outlook Gold remains supported by bullish momentum ahead of the renewed tariff tensions between the U.S. and China. These developments are expected to strengthen safe-haven demand, keeping gold on track toward new all-time highs if momentum continues. Technically, as long as the price trades above 4011, the bullish trend is likely to extend toward 4040 and 4058, with potential continuation toward 4092. A bearish correction would require a 1H candle close below 4011, which could trigger a move down to 3980, and below 3965 the decline may extend to 3944. Gold will likely trade sensitively in the short term, reacting to any new statements from President Trump or updates on the tariff situation between Washington and Beijing. Pivot Line: 4011 Resistance Levels: 4040 / 4058 / 4092 Support Levels: 3980 / 3965 / 3944 📈 Summary: Bullish bias remains above 4011, targeting 4058 → 4092, while a close below 4011 may trigger a short-term correction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SroshMayi
XAUUSD To Hot to Handle ( could be last setup on Bullish)XAUUSD is still on bullish Bias and holding the consolidation zone from 4330-4370 . Today market is creepy We have to be very careful. What are my conditions For Today's session? 1st- Currently market is moving at previous liquidity Gap at 4330-4325 area and I took multiple buys at 4320 and My stoploss are at my Breakeven. 2nd- if Market remains low and H1 candle closes below 4325 then we'll have Retracement towards 4290- 4270. Additional Tip: -BUY the Dips with stoploss my Ultimate next Perfect buy will be 4230-4240 Zone .
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Forexmaestro121
Gold rebounds in a V-shape, a resounding rebound from support! The gold market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes from major central banks (particularly the Federal Reserve) continue to put pressure on gold prices, as higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold. The continued strength of the US dollar also limits gold's upward potential. On the other hand, growing geopolitical concerns are providing significant safe-haven support for gold prices. The market is closely watching inflation data and central bank policy signals amidst persistent risks and concerns about a global recession. Any sign of a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes could trigger a strong rebound in gold prices. Overall, based on fundamentals, gold prices are more likely to experience a volatile pattern in the short term, but safe-haven buying below provides solid support. From a technical perspective, gold prices have established a significant short-term support level near 4160. This level is not only the low point of multiple recent pullbacks but also near a key psychological support level. The current price, near 4181, is just above this support level, showing signs of stabilization. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) may have rebounded from oversold territory, suggesting weakening downward momentum and the need for a technical rebound. An initial upside target could be 4210, the intersection of the recent rebound high and a minor resistance level. Setting a stop-loss at 4161, just below the support level, effectively manages risk. If support breaks, gold prices could see further downside potential. Gold recommends a long position around 4181, with a stop-loss at 4161 and a target of 4210.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mark-Rocket
Gold: Scaling Back at 4090 - Awaiting Key Dip-Buying EntryFederal Reserve Chair Powell is scheduled to speak at 16:20 GMT on Wednesday, addressing the National Association for Business Economics on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. This speech comes at a time of heightened global market volatility, driven by renewed trade tensions and sharp corrections in digital asset markets. Powell’s remarks may shape expectations around the pace of rate cuts and broader monetary policy, influencing whether the current downward trend in crypto deepens or stabilizes. Gold pushed to extreme highs during the Asian and European sessions, reinforcing our stance: it’s wise to remain bullish but avoid chasing the rally. Instead, wait for pullbacks to establish long positions. With the retracement we’re now observing, the timing to enter long positions appears opportune. 4090 serves as the key intraday support and trend-defending level 4060 acts as the broader swing bullish/bearish divider After a day of observation, we can now align with the overall uptrend by using these two levels as references. Execute repeated long positions near 4090, with an initial target of 10–15 points for partial closing. Let remaining positions run toward further highs. This approach allows you to build long exposure from a solid base — avoiding the risk of buying at extreme highs or getting whipsawed in volatile intermediate price zones. 🟡 Trading Strategy Enter long on dips toward 4090 Add on retests near 4060 if reached Partial take profit at +10/15 points Let runners advance toward new highs
OANDA:XAUUSD
by High-Class
Gold - Just buy the all time high!🔱Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) will rally even higher: 🔎Analysis summary: Gold remains totally bullish. And after the recent all time high breakout rally of about +15%, traders are willing to accept much higher prices. Following the significant long term rising channel formation, Gold will rally another +25% before we will see a retracement. 📝Levels to watch: $4.000, $4.500 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
TVC:GOLDLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
20
Some thing about gold 📈 Market Overview Gold continues to advance near the $4 250 level as traders digest the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields alongside growing expectations for a more accommodative Federal Reserve. Mixed U.S. macro data this week has reinforced a mildly dovish market tone, with investors pricing in potential rate cuts by early 2026. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, holds steady as participants await the next catalyst. Attention today turns to the U.S. housing-starts and jobless-claims reports — both could fuel short-term volatility. A stronger-than-expected release might trigger profit-taking in gold. Conversely, softer data could reignite safe-haven demand and extend the current rebound toward $4 380+. Expect possible liquidity sweeps before a clean directional move, as institutions adjust exposure near the week’s range highs and lows. 🔎 Technical Outlook (1H – SMC Perspective) Structure remains bullish, with previous Breaks of Structure (BOS) confirming the continuation after an accumulation phase. A brief Change of Character (ChoCH) indicates a short-term correction — likely a liquidity grab before another impulsive leg higher. Liquidity below $4 200 has already been collected, aligning with the discount zone $4 196 – $4 198. The market is shaping a potential re-accumulation; buyers may seek lower-timeframe confirmation (M15 BOS / ChoCH) within that demand zone. Upside targets rest near $4 375 – $4 380, coinciding with a premium supply area where profit-taking or new shorts could emerge. 🧭 Trade Scenarios 🔴 Potential Short Setup Interest Zone: $4 378 – $4 376 Protective Stop: $4 386 Reaction Targets: $4 325 → $4 260 🟢 Potential Long Setup Interest Zone: $4 196 – $4 198 Protective Stop: $4 190 Reaction Targets: $4 250 → $4 370 → $4 380 + (All setups are for educational illustration; execution should follow confirmation and personal risk tolerance.) ⚠️ Risk-Management Guidelines Wait for lower-timeframe BOS / ChoCH confirmation before considering entries. Avoid executing around key U.S. data releases — spreads can widen and volatility spike briefly. Take partial profits at nearby liquidity pools; trail stops only after structure reconfirms trend continuation. ✅ Summary Gold keeps a bullish bias above $4 200 after clearing downside liquidity. A short-term pullback toward $4 196 – $4 198 could invite fresh long opportunities, as long as price action respects structural support. Only a decisive break below $4 190 would challenge the broader bullish view.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by BrianLionCapital
Gold may revisit 4,100 after strong buying pressureOANDA:XAUUSD is trading within a clearly defined ascending channel, with price action currently testing the upper boundary. This level could act as dynamic resistance, and a rejection here could trigger a pullback toward the support zone at 4,100. If buyers can hold this support, the bullish structure will remain intact, with the potential to continue pushing towards higher levels. However, if price breaks below this area, a deeper correction toward the lower boundary of the channel could unfold. Monitoring candlestick patterns and volume in this key area is crucial to identify buying opportunities. Risk should be managed appropriately, always confirming your setups and trading with proper risk management strategies. If you have any thoughts on this setup or additional insights, feel free to share them in the comments!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Kiliann_Dang
4
GOLD ANALYSIS TODAY | BULLISH TREND | XAUUSD OCT 15.2025 ☄️ Gold Market Outlook 10/ 15 (Based on SMC) ☄️ 📊 Over Trend 🔤The market remains bullish, confirmed by a continuous sequence of BOS to the upside. 🔤Minor CHoCHs only indicate short-term retracements, not trend reversals. 🔤The main demand area is located between 4110–4130, where Smart Money previously accumulated. 🏆 Trading Plan 🔼 Scenario 1 — Continuation Buy 🔤 Reason: Price broke structure above 4170, confirming bullish momentum. FVG zone 4140–4155 is likely to attract institutional re-entries. 🔤 Conditions: Wait for price to retrace into 4140–4155 and form a bullish CHoCH confirmation. 🔤 Entry: 4145-4150 🔼 Scenario 2 — Deep Pullback then Rally 🔤 Reason: If short-term profit-taking occurs, price may revisit the stronger demand + FVG zone at 4110–4130. This aligns with a clean Order Block on H1 timeframe. 🔤 Conditions: Watch for a CHoCH → BOS bullish confirmation within 4110–4130. 🔤 Entry: 4110-4120 🔽 Scenario 3 — Structural Break (Bearish Correction) 🔤 Reason: If price closes below 4100, the bullish structure will be invalidated. This could trigger a deeper correction toward the 4040–4060 FVG zone. 🔤 Conditions: Wait for a confirmed break below 4100 and a failed retest of 4105–4110 before selling.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Michael_Gold_Insider
XAUUSD Bull and Bear Game1. Solid safe-haven demand: The ongoing US government shutdown, heightened global trade tensions, and escalating geopolitical risks all contribute to gold's safe-haven fundamentals. 2. Favorable Federal Reserve Policy: Market expectations for an October rate cut by the Fed are extremely high (with a 97% probability), which continues to suppress the US dollar and is bullish for gold. 3. Technical Correction Needs: The RSI indicator has shown an overbought signal. The rapid price increase has accumulated profit-taking pressure, raising the possibility of a short-term technical correction. Long Strategy: · Ideal Entry: After the support range of $4060-4050 stabilizes (e.g., a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern or a hammer candlestick pattern appears), you can place long orders in batches. · Target: Retest of the $4130-4150 area. · Stop-loss: A break below $4050. · Short Strategy (Short-Term): · Suitable only for aggressive traders. Try a small short position when the price rebounds to $4130-4150 and a stagflation signal (e.g., a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern or a dark cloud cover pattern) appears. · Target: $4080-4060. · Stop-loss: A breakout of $4170.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by IsidoChrsty
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG: That didn't go to badly! We wanted price to attempt that low, give us the push up and although we had highlighted a little higher, the red box did not break and our hot spot gave a lovely RIP from the level. We then broke the 4030 level at the bias and completed all the bias level targets. I would love to say we caught the top, but is this the top? For now, we have support at the 3950 level and below that 3930. If we get a continuation downside, we will be looking below for a potential long, otherwise, upside into 3990 levels is important for the break. I would like to see more downside here at least to target the daily mean which is well overdue. Price: 4039 RED BOXES: Break above 4047 for 4050✅, 4055✅, 4061, 4075 and 4085 in extension of the move Break below 4030 for 4020✅, 4010✅, 4006✅, 3997✅, 3980✅ and 3977✅ in extension of the move As always, trade safe. KOG
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
12