XAUUSD BULLPrice reacted on the support after a strong retracement after the big bull push
Expecting price to continue bullish between this S&R Zone
Trade ideas
Gold Bullish Momentum is UnstoppableGold Bullish Momentum is Unstoppable. As compared to other asset classes, gold overshines this year.
XAUUSD STRCTUREGold continues to show consistent bullish momentum, maintaining clean rebounds from its ascending trendline structure. The price action remains well-respected within the current bullish channel.
Recently, price broke above the key resistance level at 4200, confirming continued buying strength. With this breakout, upside targets are now seen around the 4260–4280 region, where the next potential resistance zone lies.
If price breaks and holds above 4240, it could signal renewed bullish momentum, paving the way for a further move toward higher resistance zones. However, failure to sustain above 4240 could lead to a short-term pullback toward 4200–4180 for possible re-entry opportunities.
"Thank you for your support! If you found this idea valuable or learned something new, please consider liking and leaving a comment. I’d really appreciate hearing your feedback and thoughts."
Gold's high-level volatility pattern remains unchangedGold's high-level volatility pattern remains unchanged, with bulls still in the driver's seat, supported by both fundamentals and technical factors.
Fundamental Background Analysis
Recently, heightened global economic and political uncertainty, renewed tensions in the Sino-US trade situation, and ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have significantly heightened risk aversion in the market, leading to continued inflows into gold. Meanwhile, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have further strengthened, fueled by investors' fear of missing out (FOMO), leading to a strong upward trend in gold prices. Tonight, the market will release key data such as US weekly initial jobless claims, September's producer price index (PPI), and the monthly retail sales rate. These data may trigger short-term fluctuations in gold prices and warrant close attention.
Daily Trend Review
Gold prices generally fluctuated at high levels today. After opening slightly, they dipped back to a low of $4,199.58 per ounce, then surged to $4,242 before falling back to around $4,203, close to the morning opening level. Gold prices have now rebounded to around $4,240, indicating continued competition between bulls and bears at high levels, but the overall market structure remains positive.
Technical Analysis Perspective
Trend Structure
On the 4-hour chart, the moving average system is bullish, and gold prices continue to trade above the 5-day moving average, indicating that short-term upward momentum remains solid.
The Bollinger Bands are opening upward, and gold prices are trading above the middle band, further confirming that bulls are currently in control.
After breaking through the key round number of $4,200, gold prices have effectively opened up upside potential, and the overall trend remains bullish.
Key Price Levels
Support Area: Primary support lies in the 4200-4210 range, with deeper support at 4160 and 4120, respectively.
Resistance Target: If the upward trend continues, the initial target could be the 4260-4280 area.
Trend Pattern Prediction
Strong Unilateral Upward Attack: If the market rises directly in the early trading, it may quickly test the 4260-4280 area. In this case, it is recommended to wait for a pullback before entering the market.
Upward Oscillating Trend: If the trend becomes more subdued, the area around 4200 will become important support and an ideal entry point for long positions.
Trading Strategy Recommendations
Key Concept: Follow the bullish trend and prioritize buying on dips, avoiding contrarian top speculation.
Specific Operations:
We recommend establishing long positions in the 4210-4200 range, and consider adding to positions if the price drops to 4180.
Set a strict stop-loss below 4170 to mitigate potential pullback risk.
Upward targets include 4230 and 4250, with further targets targeting 4260.
Risk Warning: Despite the current strong trend, be wary of potential sentiment shifts on Thursday, a potential "turnaround day." In the event of an unexpected pullback, 4160 and 4120 will become key defensive levels, offering opportunities for buying on dips.
Summary: Gold maintains a clear overall bullish outlook, supported by both fundamentals and technicals. Investors should pay attention to the immediate impact of the release of US economic data in the evening on market sentiment, strictly follow the principle of trend trading, seize opportunities to intervene in pullbacks, and at the same time do a good job of position management and risk control.
Gold experienced a technical pullback after reaching a record hiGold experienced a technical pullback after reaching a record high, but its long-term trend remains supported.
I. Fundamental Drivers Analysis
On Tuesday (October 14th), spot gold retreated from its all-time high of $4,179.47 per ounce and is currently trading around $4,141. This pullback is primarily driven by the following factors:
Recovering risk sentiment: The US President's shift in stance on tariffs boosted market risk appetite, prompting some profit-taking in gold.
A temporary rebound in the US dollar: Dip-buying of the US dollar index has exerted short-term pressure on gold prices.
Policy Expectations Support: Market expectations for two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year continue to rise, limiting the dollar's upside and providing underlying support for gold.
Risk Warning: Economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and geopolitical conflict risks caused by the US government shutdown remain. Gold's safe-haven value remains strong, and blind short selling is not recommended.
II. In-depth Technical Analysis
Trend Positioning
Gold's year-to-date gain has exceeded $1,600, a record high, maintaining a strong bullish trend.
The current technical outlook is severely overbought, and any pullback is a healthy technical correction that does not alter the long-term bull market fundamentals.
Key Price Levels
Resistance: $4170-4180 (historical highs)
Support: $4100-4090 (primary support), $4065 (key defense)
Trend Characteristics
Recently, the market has exhibited a typical "Monday opening jump" pattern, which has proven effective for several consecutive weeks.
Be wary of the potential for a technical pullback on Tuesday (reflecting historical trends, single-day pullbacks can reach $80).
III. Trading Strategy Recommendations
Operational Strategies
Main Direction: Build a long position after a pullback stabilizes
Secondary Strategy: Test short positions with a small position on a rebound to resistance (short-term)
Specific Layout
Long Position Strategy:
Ideal Entry Zones: $4100-4090, $4065
Stop-Loss: Below $4050
Target Level: $4150-4170
Risk Management Tips:
Avoid chasing gains and selling losses; patiently wait for key support levels to stabilize.
If an ideal entry level is not provided, it is better to miss out than to open a position blindly.
Strictly limit risk per trade to no more than 3% of principal.
IV. Special Reminders
Current market volatility has increased significantly; it is recommended to reduce position size appropriately.
Watch for potential market turning signals during the evening US trading session.
Long-term investors may consider adopting a phased position building strategy.
GoldXAUUSD
- Completed " 123 " Impulsive Waves
- Supply Zone
- RSI - Divergence
- Fair Value Gap
- Fibonacci Level - 38.20% / 50.00%
GOLD 11% DROP 2nd times the charmLast call resistance but i guess with the global sinking in all assests that took place it decided to go higher as everyones safest bet amid such bearish unsion within all sectors, instruments, nations
so this time im expecting the tank if not here ill update where to again
XAUUSD Analsis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Financial Crises, Contagion, and Systemic Risk1. Introduction
Financial crises have been recurring features of the global economy, often bringing devastating consequences to nations, markets, and households. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, and the 1930s Great Depression are stark reminders of the fragility of financial systems. These crises are not isolated events but often spread across markets and borders through interconnected channels—a phenomenon known as financial contagion. Underlying these episodes is the concept of systemic risk, which captures the potential for a local shock to destabilize an entire financial system.
Understanding the dynamics of financial crises, contagion, and systemic risk is vital for investors, policymakers, and regulators. This essay explores the causes, mechanisms, and implications of financial crises, the pathways of contagion, and the nature of systemic risk in the modern, globalized financial landscape.
2. Understanding Financial Crises
2.1 Definition and Nature
A financial crisis occurs when financial markets or institutions experience a sharp loss of value and functionality, leading to disruptions in credit flows, liquidity shortages, and sharp declines in asset prices. Crises can arise in various forms—banking crises, currency crises, sovereign debt crises, or asset price bubbles.
According to economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, financial crises share a “this-time-is-different” mentality, where excessive optimism blinds investors and policymakers to risks. Typically, a period of financial boom, high leverage, and speculative investment precedes a crisis, which eventually ends in panic and market correction.
2.2 Historical Context
The Great Depression (1929–1939): Triggered by a stock market crash in the U.S., it led to global economic contraction, massive unemployment, and bank failures.
The Asian Financial Crisis (1997–1998): Began in Thailand with the collapse of the baht and spread rapidly across Southeast Asia due to investor panic and capital flight.
The Global Financial Crisis (2008): Originating in the U.S. housing market and subprime mortgage sector, it spread worldwide due to the interconnectedness of global finance.
Each episode demonstrated how vulnerabilities in one part of the financial system can trigger chain reactions across sectors and borders.
3. Causes of Financial Crises
Financial crises arise from a combination of microeconomic behaviors and macroeconomic imbalances. Major causes include:
3.1 Excessive Leverage and Risk-Taking
Financial institutions often increase leverage—borrowing more relative to their equity—to amplify returns. However, when asset prices decline, leverage magnifies losses, threatening solvency. In 2008, investment banks like Lehman Brothers were highly leveraged (30:1), making them extremely vulnerable to market downturns.
3.2 Asset Bubbles
Speculative bubbles occur when asset prices rise far beyond their intrinsic value due to investor exuberance. When expectations reverse, the bubble bursts, triggering widespread losses. Classic examples include the dot-com bubble (2000) and the U.S. housing bubble (2006–2007).
3.3 Maturity and Liquidity Mismatch
Banks typically fund long-term loans with short-term deposits. When confidence erodes, depositors may withdraw funds en masse—a bank run—leading to liquidity crises. The collapse of Northern Rock in 2007 exemplified this mismatch.
3.4 Poor Regulation and Moral Hazard
Financial liberalization without adequate regulation often encourages excessive risk-taking. Moral hazard arises when institutions believe they are “too big to fail” and expect government bailouts, thus engaging in reckless behavior.
3.5 External Shocks
Global events—such as sharp oil price changes, geopolitical tensions, or pandemics—can also trigger financial crises by affecting investor sentiment, capital flows, and market stability.
4. Contagion: The Spread of Financial Crises
4.1 Definition and Mechanisms
Financial contagion refers to the spread of financial shocks from one institution, market, or country to others. It represents the “domino effect” in financial systems, where panic or losses in one region transmit rapidly across the globe.
Contagion operates through both real and financial channels:
Real channels involve trade linkages—declining demand in one country affects exports of trading partners.
Financial channels involve capital flows, asset correlations, and investor behavior.
4.2 Channels of Contagion
Common Investors: International funds holding assets in multiple countries may sell holdings across markets during crises, causing synchronized declines.
Bank Linkages: Global banks with cross-border exposures transmit shocks through the interbank lending market.
Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Movements: Currency devaluations in one country can pressure neighboring countries to devalue or raise interest rates.
Investor Herding and Panic: Behavioral contagion occurs when investors mimic others, driven by fear and uncertainty.
Information Asymmetry: Lack of transparent information leads investors to generalize risk across regions, withdrawing capital indiscriminately.
4.3 Examples of Financial Contagion
Asian Financial Crisis (1997): Thailand’s currency collapse spread rapidly to Malaysia, Indonesia, and South Korea, even though fundamentals differed.
Global Financial Crisis (2008): The fall of Lehman Brothers triggered global panic, freezing credit markets and causing stock markets worldwide to plunge.
European Sovereign Debt Crisis (2010–2012): Fiscal problems in Greece affected bond markets in Portugal, Spain, and Italy due to shared eurozone exposure.
4.4 Empirical Evidence
Empirical studies show that contagion tends to intensify during crises due to rising correlation between asset returns. For instance, during 2008–2009, correlations among global equity markets surged, reducing diversification benefits and amplifying systemic risk.
5. Systemic Risk: The Core of Financial Fragility
5.1 Definition
Systemic risk is the risk that the failure of a single financial institution or market segment will cause cascading failures, threatening the stability of the entire financial system. It arises from interconnectedness, complexity, and common exposures across institutions.
According to the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), systemic risk embodies “the risk of disruption to financial services caused by impairment of all or parts of the financial system, with potential serious negative consequences for the real economy.”
5.2 Sources of Systemic Risk
Interconnected Financial Networks: Banks, hedge funds, and insurers are linked through lending, derivatives, and payment systems.
Too-Big-to-Fail (TBTF) Institutions: Large institutions like JPMorgan or Citigroup can cause systemic collapse if they fail, leading to government intervention.
Shadow Banking System: Non-bank entities engaged in credit intermediation (e.g., money market funds, securitization vehicles) lack regulatory oversight but carry significant risk.
Procyclicality: During booms, leverage and asset prices rise together, but when the cycle reverses, the same mechanisms amplify losses.
5.3 Models of Systemic Risk
Network Models: Analyze how financial linkages transmit shocks. A dense network can either absorb small shocks or spread large ones rapidly.
CoVaR (Conditional Value at Risk): Measures how much one institution contributes to system-wide risk.
SRISK: Estimates the capital shortfall a financial institution would face during systemic crises.
5.4 Examples of Systemic Risk in Action
Lehman Brothers (2008): Its bankruptcy triggered a liquidity freeze across the global financial system, forcing governments to rescue other institutions.
AIG (2008): The insurer’s exposure to credit default swaps (CDS) required a $182 billion U.S. government bailout to prevent global contagion.
Long-Term Capital Management (1998): A hedge fund with massive leveraged positions almost caused systemic failure before coordinated central bank intervention.
6. The Role of Central Banks and Governments
6.1 Lender of Last Resort
Central banks play a critical role in crisis management by providing emergency liquidity to solvent but illiquid banks. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interventions in 2008—such as the Term Auction Facility and quantitative easing—helped restore liquidity and confidence.
6.2 Fiscal Support and Bailouts
Governments may provide capital injections, guarantees, or nationalizations to stabilize critical institutions. The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) in the U.S. and European Stability Mechanism (ESM) in the eurozone exemplify such efforts.
6.3 International Cooperation
Institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) offer financial assistance and policy advice during crises. Coordination among central banks (e.g., swap lines) helps stabilize global liquidity.
7. Preventing and Managing Systemic Crises
7.1 Macroprudential Regulation
Regulators now focus on systemic stability rather than individual institutions. Tools include:
Countercyclical capital buffers
Liquidity coverage ratios
Stress testing
Leverage limits
7.2 Resolution Mechanisms
The creation of resolution frameworks ensures that failing institutions can be wound down without taxpayer bailouts. The Dodd-Frank Act (2010) in the U.S. introduced “living wills” for large banks to manage orderly failures.
7.3 Transparency and Risk Monitoring
Improved data sharing and disclosure reduce information asymmetry. The Financial Stability Board (FSB) monitors global systemic risks and coordinates regulatory reforms.
7.4 Role of Technology and Big Data
Advanced analytics, AI, and blockchain enhance risk detection and transaction transparency. Regulators use RegTech to monitor real-time financial stability indicators.
8. Behavioral Aspects of Financial Crises
Human psychology plays a pivotal role in creating and amplifying financial instability:
Herd Behavior: Investors follow the crowd, ignoring fundamentals.
Overconfidence: Market participants overestimate their ability to manage risk.
Loss Aversion: Fear of losses causes panic selling during downturns.
Moral Hazard: Belief in bailouts encourages risk-taking.
Behavioral finance highlights that market irrationality often drives asset bubbles and panic phases, making crisis prediction difficult.
9. Globalization and the Amplification of Contagion
The integration of global markets has intensified interdependence. While globalization facilitates capital mobility and diversification, it also magnifies vulnerabilities:
Cross-border banking linkages transmit shocks rapidly.
International investors move funds instantly in response to news.
Emerging markets are especially exposed to capital flow reversals and currency volatility.
Digitalization and high-frequency trading have further increased the speed of contagion—financial panic now spreads in hours rather than weeks.
10. Lessons from Past Crises
Transparency is crucial: Hidden leverage and off-balance-sheet risks often trigger crises.
Capital adequacy must be maintained: Stronger buffers help absorb shocks.
Global coordination matters: Isolated national policies cannot address global contagion.
Moral hazard must be controlled: Regulation should prevent excessive risk-taking by large institutions.
Crisis preparedness: Regular stress tests and crisis simulations enhance system resilience.
11. Future Outlook and Emerging Risks
As financial systems evolve, new forms of systemic risk emerge:
Cyber Risk: Cyberattacks on banks or payment systems could paralyze global finance.
Climate Risk: Physical and transition risks from climate change may impact asset valuations.
Crypto and Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Lack of regulation and interconnectivity between crypto assets and traditional finance can generate new contagion channels.
Artificial Intelligence and Algorithmic Trading: Automation could amplify volatility during shocks.
Regulatory frameworks must evolve continuously to manage these emerging threats while balancing innovation and stability.
12. Conclusion
Financial crises, contagion, and systemic risk are deeply interwoven aspects of modern finance. The complexity and interconnectedness of global markets mean that localized shocks can rapidly escalate into systemic events, endangering economies and livelihoods. While improved regulation, technology, and international cooperation have strengthened financial systems since 2008, vulnerabilities persist—especially amid globalization, digitalization, and geopolitical uncertainty.
To prevent future crises, policymakers must adopt a macroprudential and forward-looking approach, balancing innovation with stability. Understanding the mechanisms of contagion and the roots of systemic risk is essential not only for regulators but for investors and societies at large. Ultimately, financial stability is not merely a technical issue—it is a cornerstone of economic and social resilience.
Gold LongThis pair is very bullish. We are in a retracement and the fair value gap has been tapped in .we hope to buy from 4340 till new All time high
Potential double topAfter recent unexplainable raise in gold, there is a slowing of the movement with potential double top forming. If the set up matures with break below 4200, confirms the downtrend initiation
GoldGold 🥇 | Comprehensive Technical Analysis - Setting a Significant Rejection Zone
Current Price: Around $4,353 | Timeframe: Daily - Weekly
Date: October 21, 2025
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📊 Overview On the Market:
Gold has completed an exceptional bullish cycle, reaching new all-time highs above 4,400, which I believe represents the local high for the current phase.
However, several technical factors now point to an imminent correction before any potential continuation.
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🔍 Key Technical Notes:
▪️ Price Zone:
The stock is currently trading in a bullish zone—an area where institutional investors historically tend to take profits and open short positions.
▪️ Market Sentiment:
Fear and Greed Index: 78/100 (Extreme Greed)
These extreme readings in bullish zones precede corrections in 85% of historical cases.
▪️ Structural Analysis:
- Overall Structure: Bullish (higher timeframes)
- Internal Structure: Showing signs of weakness and bearish divergence
- A potential Change in Personality (CHoCH) is forming on medium timeframes
▪️ Supply and Demand Zones:
Multiple untested resistance zones below, as well as unfilled fair value gaps that act as price magnets.
▪️ Multiple Timeframe Analysis:
Price is analyzed across multiple timeframes (4-hour, 1-day, 1-week, etc.) using advanced order flow techniques and proprietary market structure mapping tools—all of which point to a potential upcoming correction.
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🎯 Expected Scenario (High Probability):
Stage 1 - Initial Correction:
📍 Target 1: $3,777-$3,816
(Balance Zone)
📍 Target 2: $3,688-$3,749
(Discount Zone - Optimal Entry)
Stage 2 - Deeper Correction (Moderate Probability):
📍 Target 3: $3,465-$3,580
(Strong Institutional Demand - Buy Orders)
In addition to unfilled fair value gaps that act as price magnets.
Note: Additional Confirmation Required
After Reaching the Discount Zones:
The possibility of a continued uptrend exists, but is not currently highly likely. The situation will be reassessed upon reaching the demand zones.
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⚡ Why this analysis?
This analysis is based on:
✓ Advanced order flow analysis techniques
✓ Professional tools for mapping market structure
✓ Premium/Discount Zone Theory
✓ Detecting institutional order blocks
✓ Market sentiment analysis
✓ Liquidity level mapping
These are not traditional retail trading tools; they are institutional analysis techniques used by professional traders.
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📚 Previous Record:
Some may remember my previous analysis of gold in August 2023:
📌 Analysis for August 13 2023:
- Expectations: Rise from 1780
- Targets: 2500 → 2800 → Over 3800
- Result: ✅ 100% Success Rate
- Actual Movement: Reaching over 4400 (147% Profit)
- Update (April 2024): "Trade Closed at Target"
This analysis is based on the same institutional framework applied to this current situation. The methodology is effective because it tracks actual cash flow—not trader sentiment.
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⚠️ Risk Management (Mandatory):
Regardless of your confidence level, risk management is non-negotiable:
✓ Don't risk more than 1-2% of your capital on each trade.
✓ Always set a stop-loss before entering.
✓ Avoid excessive leverage.
✓ Maximize your profits. Steps
✓ Research yourself (DYOR)
══════════════════════════════════════ ═════
⚖️ Disclaimer:
This is educational technical analysis and does not constitute financial advice or an investment recommendation.
Trading carries a significant risk of capital loss.
Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Trade at your own risk.
Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
══════
💬 Share your opinion with us:
What do you think of gold at these levels?
📊 If you found this analysis helpful, don't forget to like and follow it for more analysis.
🔔 Turn on notifications to receive updates as soon as this setting develops.
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XAU/USD) Bullish trend analysis Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of XAU/USD (Gold), 4H timeframe — here’s the detailed breakdown 👇
---
Trade Idea: Bullish Continuation Setup — XAU/USD
Market Context
Gold has been in a strong uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows.
Price has recently broken above the previous resistance zone, signaling bullish continuation.
---
Key Technical Points
1. FVG (Fair Value Gap) Zone
The chart highlights an FVG area around 4,060–4,080, which now acts as a potential retracement zone.
Smart money often drives price back into these imbalances to mitigate orders before continuing the move up.
2. Retest Opportunity
Expect a pullback into the FVG zone, followed by bullish confirmation (rejection candle or structure shift).
This creates a high-probability long entry zone aligned with the prevailing bullish order flow.
3. Key Support Level
The 3,940–3,970 zone below acts as a major support / demand area, reinforcing the overall bullish bias.
4. Target Point
The projected target point is around 4,250, based on the measured move from the FVG breakout structure.
This aligns with liquidity resting above previous highs — a likely take-profit zone for institutional traders.
---
Trade Plan
Entry: Wait for price to retrace and show bullish confirmation inside the 4,060–4,080 (FVG zone).
Stop Loss: Below 4,040 (beneath imbalance / last swing low).
Take Profit: 4,250 target zone — completion of the bullish leg.
---
Market Logic
This idea follows Smart Money flow principles:
Break of structure (BOS) confirms bullish control.
Retracement to FVG provides a discounted entry.
Target liquidity above prior highs for exit.
--- Mr SMC Trading point
Summary:
Gold remains in a strong bullish phase — look for retracement entries into the FVG for continuation toward 4,250.
Please support boost 🚀 this analysis
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold continues its powerful ascent, extending gains and printing new all-time highs in nearly every session.
Price is currently trending near 4,235 — an intraday resistance level — while momentum remains firm, showing sustained buyer dominance.
If price reclaims and holds above 4,235, the next resistance sits at 4,257, followed by 4,280 as an extended upside target.
Immediate support is seen at 4,205, and if a deeper pullback develops, watch the First Reaction Zone (4,176–4,150) for potential re-entry opportunities.
The broader bias remains bullish with MA50 and MA200 continuing to provide dynamic trend support.
📌Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
4235
4264
4280
Support:
4205
4176
4150
4112
4082
🔎Fundamental Focus:
Markets are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates sooner rather than later, boosting gold’s appeal as lower yields reduce the cost of holding the metal. At the same time, the U.S. government shutdown is adding another layer of uncertainty, freezing data releases and shaking confidence in fiscal management.
Tensions between the U.S. and China, along with political instability in parts of Europe and Asia, continue to weigh on global risk sentiment. Meanwhile, central banks and large funds keep accumulating gold as a hedge against debt, inflation, and a weakening dollar.
Together, these forces have created an environment with no clear ceiling for gold, as every dip is met with strong buying and momentum keeps pushing prices to new record highs.
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3894 and a gap below at 3839. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3894
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3894 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3939
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3939 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3979
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3979 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
4025
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4025 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
4066
BEARISH TARGETS
3839
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3793 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3741
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3741 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3688
3648
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold Targeting #4,100.80 - #4,200.80 ahead of #4,500.80 markAs discussed throughout my last week's commentary: 'Technical analysis: Gold reversed on Intra-day basis (even though DX is Trading near multi-session High’s, from now on / main correlation for the fractal) as Price-action was isolated within Neutral Rectangle which has Lower High's / High's - Low's. As I've mentioned before, current slide was nothing more but sweep to cool down Overbought levels however not discontinuation of Ascending Channel on bigger charts.. Hourly 4 chart's timeframe should turn green any minute now and as long as Price-action meets strong Support near #4,000.80 psychological benchmark which is showcasing strong rejection point, I expect test-and-break of the #4,052.80 - #4,057.80 zone which can extend Buying sequence widely above #4,100.80 psychological benchmark, preserving trendline on Hourly 4 chart which is Supporting the uptrend and rejecting every downside attempt since late September / early October fractal. It is worth noting that if #4,052.80 - #4,057.80 Short-term Resistance zone rejects current recovery attempt, #3rd Top on mentioned belt which is guarding the upside will be formed as Gold will be isolated within #2 strong trendlines until one of the levels break and delivers major move on the aftermath (I lean to the Bullish side as well).'
My position: I have been Buying Gold throughout Friday's session all along and Buying Gold firstly in #3,972.80 - #3,992.80 Neutral Rectangle waiting for the break-out to the upside. I had reached my Buying Profit Intra-day quota within the belt and started my usual Medium-term Buy orders positioning. I have Bought Gold (Medium-term) on #3,992.80 Support for the fractal as Gold was unable to break above #4,022.80 Resistance however my Stop was triggered on #3,985.80. I Bought Gold again on #3,978.80 again with #3,962.80 Stop and over the weekend / this morning my #4,042.80 Take Profit is hit, confirming my thesis that Traders shouldn't Sell Gold at all cost and turn to Buying this market. Each Selling momentum is just another sweep before Buyers arise and take Gold on upper levels. I do expect #4,100.80 benchmark to be met within #1 - #2 week horizon before #4,200.80 which is posing as my Medium-term Target. I achieved my weekly Profit and will take it easy from now.
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 1h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 3907 and a gap below at 3880. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3907
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3907 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3937
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3937 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3965
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3965 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3993
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3993 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
4019
BEARISH TARGETS
3880
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3880 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3848
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3848 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3819
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3819 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3781
3743
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD – Bullish Above 4011 Ahead of Tariff TensionsGOLD – Outlook
Gold remains supported by bullish momentum ahead of the renewed tariff tensions between the U.S. and China.
These developments are expected to strengthen safe-haven demand, keeping gold on track toward new all-time highs if momentum continues.
Technically, as long as the price trades above 4011, the bullish trend is likely to extend toward 4040 and 4058, with potential continuation toward 4092.
A bearish correction would require a 1H candle close below 4011, which could trigger a move down to 3980, and below 3965 the decline may extend to 3944.
Gold will likely trade sensitively in the short term, reacting to any new statements from President Trump or updates on the tariff situation between Washington and Beijing.
Pivot Line: 4011
Resistance Levels: 4040 / 4058 / 4092
Support Levels: 3980 / 3965 / 3944
📈 Summary:
Bullish bias remains above 4011, targeting 4058 → 4092, while a close below 4011 may trigger a short-term correction.
XAUUSD To Hot to Handle ( could be last setup on Bullish)XAUUSD is still on bullish Bias and holding the consolidation zone from 4330-4370 .
Today market is creepy We have to be very careful.
What are my conditions For Today's session?
1st- Currently market is moving at previous liquidity Gap at 4330-4325 area and I took multiple buys at 4320 and My stoploss are at my Breakeven.
2nd- if Market remains low and H1 candle closes below 4325 then we'll have Retracement towards 4290- 4270.
Additional Tip:
-BUY the Dips with stoploss my Ultimate next Perfect buy will be 4230-4240 Zone .
GOLD XAUUSDIF 4379-4380 supply fails 15 min structure is showing 4462.8,the price of GOLD will keep rising up...gold is moving differently ,even bitcoin is no match.
Bull Market Momentum Extends After 0.618 BreakoutGold continues its parabolic uptrend, extending beyond the all-time high breakout and surpassing the 0.618 Fibonacci extension with a strong engulfing candle. This confirms that buyers remain in full control of the current market phase.
Key Technical Points:
- Immediate Support: $4,920
- Extension Target: $5,162
- Trend: Strongly bullish
Momentum remains firmly bullish as price consolidates above the previous extension zone. The next measured move target lies at $5,162, aligning with the next Fibonacci expansion, which could mark a potential short-term top before correction.
However, market structure continues to favor higher highs and higher lows, and pullbacks are likely to be shallow as long as $4,920 holds firm.
In summary, Gold remains in a powerful bullish trend, with $5,162 acting as the next major target before any meaningful retracement occurs.
Gold rebounds in a V-shape, a resounding rebound from support!
The gold market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors. On the one hand, expectations of aggressive interest rate hikes from major central banks (particularly the Federal Reserve) continue to put pressure on gold prices, as higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold. The continued strength of the US dollar also limits gold's upward potential. On the other hand, growing geopolitical concerns are providing significant safe-haven support for gold prices. The market is closely watching inflation data and central bank policy signals amidst persistent risks and concerns about a global recession. Any sign of a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes could trigger a strong rebound in gold prices. Overall, based on fundamentals, gold prices are more likely to experience a volatile pattern in the short term, but safe-haven buying below provides solid support.
From a technical perspective, gold prices have established a significant short-term support level near 4160. This level is not only the low point of multiple recent pullbacks but also near a key psychological support level. The current price, near 4181, is just above this support level, showing signs of stabilization. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) may have rebounded from oversold territory, suggesting weakening downward momentum and the need for a technical rebound. An initial upside target could be 4210, the intersection of the recent rebound high and a minor resistance level. Setting a stop-loss at 4161, just below the support level, effectively manages risk. If support breaks, gold prices could see further downside potential.
Gold recommends a long position around 4181, with a stop-loss at 4161 and a target of 4210.
Gold: Scaling Back at 4090 - Awaiting Key Dip-Buying EntryFederal Reserve Chair Powell is scheduled to speak at 16:20 GMT on Wednesday, addressing the National Association for Business Economics on the Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.
This speech comes at a time of heightened global market volatility, driven by renewed trade tensions and sharp corrections in digital asset markets. Powell’s remarks may shape expectations around the pace of rate cuts and broader monetary policy, influencing whether the current downward trend in crypto deepens or stabilizes.
Gold pushed to extreme highs during the Asian and European sessions, reinforcing our stance: it’s wise to remain bullish but avoid chasing the rally. Instead, wait for pullbacks to establish long positions.
With the retracement we’re now observing, the timing to enter long positions appears opportune.
4090 serves as the key intraday support and trend-defending level
4060 acts as the broader swing bullish/bearish divider
After a day of observation, we can now align with the overall uptrend by using these two levels as references.
Execute repeated long positions near 4090, with an initial target of 10–15 points for partial closing. Let remaining positions run toward further highs.
This approach allows you to build long exposure from a solid base — avoiding the risk of buying at extreme highs or getting whipsawed in volatile intermediate price zones.
🟡 Trading Strategy
Enter long on dips toward 4090
Add on retests near 4060 if reached
Partial take profit at +10/15 points
Let runners advance toward new highs
