Gold Holding Strong Above $4,100 — Bulls Eye $4,300 Next🌍 Market Update & Key Drivers
Gold is holding above $4,100/oz, after a strong run.
Safe-haven demand is still a major driver given global uncertainties (trade tensions, risk in U.S. fiscal policy).
The U.S. dollar remains soft, which is favorable for gold.
Fed rate-cut expectations are still elevated; major central banks and ETFs continue to accumulate gold positions.
Some caution emerges: central banks and institutional funds may take partial profits, leading to short-term volatility.
📈 Technical Structure & Levels
Support Zones
First: ~$4,100
Then: ~$4,050
Deeper: ~$4,000
Resistance / Target Zones
$4,200 → $4,300
If momentum is strong: $4,400+
The trend is strongly bullish, but momentum indicators suggest overextension. A cooling-off or sideways phase is possible before new highs.
🎯 Bias & Trade Strategy
Directional Bias: Bullish overall, but expect short-term consolidation.
Trade ideas:
Buy on dips into recent support zones (e.g. $4,050–$4,100).
Breakout trade: If gold convincingly breaks above $4,200 with strong volume, engage for a move to $4,300+.
Scalp / Short pullback: If you see reversal signals near recent highs, play short-term moves back to support.
Key risk factors include: hawkish surprises from the Fed, USD strength, or large profit-taking at extremes.
Trade ideas
BUY ASSET GOLD-XAUUSDBullish momentum confirmed with strong structure break and rejection from key support zone.
Price showing continuation strength ahead of the London session.
Targeting higher liquidity levels with clear upside potential.
Entry: Active
Stop Loss: Below recent swing low
Take Profit: 1st AT 100 PIPS DAILY SIGNALS
Momentum is building as bulls step back into control!
This setup highlights a high-probability short-term buying opportunity, ideal for traders who thrive on clean structure, momentum, and precision timing.
Market Snapshot
Structure Shift: Price holds a strong higher low — a classic sign of bullish intent.
Momentum Building: Buyers are defending key levels, showing early control.
Entry Zone: A focused area where upside acceleration is likely to begin.
Risk Control: Stop-loss levels kept tight (around 40–50 pips) for efficient capital protection.
Trading Outlook
Consider long entries near the highlighted zone as confirmation builds.
Targets: Short-term take-profits toward recent resistance or liquidity zones.
Tip: Adjust your lot size based on your personal risk plan — precision over size wins.
Trader’s Note
This signal focuses on short-term market momentum. Use it as part of a broader trading plan — not a guarantee. Stay disciplined, follow your risk rules, and let structure guide your trade.
Gold Ready to Launch from 4330-The Road to 4400 Begins!After touching around 4381, gold fell again and has now fallen below the 4340 area. Will gold break through multiple integer levels again and retest the support strength around 4180?
In fact, I believe that a slight pullback after gold hit its previous high near 4381 would be more favorable for a push towards 4400. Yesterday's rally from 4220 to 4381 showed no clear signs of a pullback. Therefore, after a single-day gain of $171, and considering the need for a technical pullback, I believe a short-term pullback in gold doesn't mean a return to 4180. Instead, it will stimulate market liquidity after a healthy short-term pullback, helping gold build upward momentum and potentially break through 4400.
Therefore, we shouldn't be afraid of gold's pullbacks, but rather focus on identifying entry points for long positions. From the current perspective, the W-shaped double bottom structural support below still plays a key supporting role, so if gold holds above 4330-4320 during the retracement process, gold still has the potential to set new highs again!
Therefore, for short-term trading, it is obvious that during the gold pullback period, you can appropriately consider going long on gold with the 4330-4320 area as support!
GOLD:Ranging between 4200-4280,awaiting guidance from news flows📈Gold exhibited a trend of surging higher and then pulling back today. In the early session, stimulated by news of localized conflicts in the Middle East, risk-aversion sentiment picked up, driving gold prices higher. After the opening, prices surged rapidly to 4,273.99. However, signs of de-escalation emerged afterward, cooling risk-aversion sentiment.
Meanwhile, factors such as early signs of a decline in U.S. auto loan rates and fading expectations of a Fed rate cut led some funds to shift from gold to U.S. dollar assets, resulting in a drop in gold prices.
📝From a technical perspective, the key resistance level above is around 4280. If gold can hold firmly above this level, it may form a short-term bottom structure and further test the 4362 level. A break above the previous high of 4379 would open the door to further upside. The support level below is near 4200; if this support fails to hold, gold prices may fall further to 4150 or even lower.
📝From a fundamental perspective, there are many uncertain factors in the market. While there are hints of news such as a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and China-U.S. trade negotiations, the outcomes remain uncertain. If the negotiations do not go smoothly, it may once again benefit gold. Additionally, the probability of a U.S. government shutdown has increased, which provides some support for gold prices.
♦Overall, the Gold is likely to fluctuate within the 4200–4280 range in the short term, waiting for further guidance from fundamental news.
Buy 4220 - 4225 TP 4235 - 4245 - 4255 SL 4210
Sell 4270 - 4275 TP 4265 - 4255 - 4245 SL 4280
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
GOLD STRONG REJECTION|LONG|
✅XAUUSD after rejecting the demand level, is showing early signs of bullish intent. The rejection wick signals absorption of sell-side liquidity and potential expansion toward the imbalance near the 4,310$ target zone. As long as price stays above 4,220$, buyers remain in control. Time Frame 2H.
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
EXPECTATION FOR THE WEEK AHEAD Gold retraced down on Friday to create a higher low and tested a major zone around 4190 area, if it closed below 4190 it would have triggered more sells but it didn't and got rejected thereby closing above 4200 and this is a sign of bullish resumption and as a trader with fair understanding of the market the next thing to look for is a buy and the first best place to buy is at 4235-30 and hold it but if you don't want to really manage your trade, i suggest you close at 4335-40 and if it closes above 4365 then you target a buy again at 4365-60 area and hold for ever,
price could be rejected at 4340 or anywhere within the upper rectangular block and sell to close below 4190 for it to sell more for some days, so to prevent losing gained profits you can close at 4340 in order to be at the safer side incase the market decides to change to long term sells, if you have the courage to hold for then you can hold because the trend is bullish overall and i will update too to signal if it decides to change direction.
Clue: if Monday closes with a bullish candle especially above 4365 then we are buying from Tuesday going, but if it closes bearish on Monday (D1) then we will definitely sell from Tuesday going especially if it closes below 4190.
XAU/USD 16 October 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis, however CHoCH positioning has moved closer to more recent price action.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS, however, I will apply discretion and not classify it as such due to the insignificant depth of pullback relative to recent price action.
At the time of this analysis price is continuing to print bullish without pause, which, as a result, I am unable to confirm a fractal high.
Current bearish CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue horizontal dotted line.
Intraday expectation:
Price to print bearish CHoCH to indicate bearish pullback phase initiation.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has continued bullish printing further ATH's.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS and has reacted from discount of 50% EQ.
Intraday expectation:
Price to target weak internal high, priced at 4,242.380.
Alternative scenario: As all higher timeframes are requiring a pullback, and we are seeing a narrowing of internal structure, price could target strong internal low.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements, particularly against China, are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold (XAUUSD) Market Outlook – Smart Money PerspectiveGold continues to break its all-time highs (ATH), with the previous peak at 4218. Shortly after, a liquidity grab occurred at 4163, roughly an hour later. This happened during the London session, a period often marked by institutional manipulation. These moves are typically executed by big players, institutions, and whales to liquidate weak hands or retail traders who entered buys near the ATH, resulting in nearly 500 pips of drawdown.
To FOMO traders, this move appeared as a selling opportunity, but the whales regained control, causing the market to consolidate, leaving many confused. This is a classic trap strategy used by smart money to shake out emotional traders.
BUYING SCENARIO (Bullish Bias):
Watch the M30 Fair Value Gap (FVG) closely.
If a 30-minute candle closes inside or above the FVG, it confirms that price is respecting the imbalance zone.
This gives a high probability for price to continue upward and potentially break above the 4218 ATH, forming a new high.
Confluences to consider:
- M30 FVG respected and filled
- Strong bullish candle close
- Presence of bullish order block below
---------------------------------------
SELLING SCENARIO (Cautious Bearish Bias):
Although the overall market structure remains bullish, a short-term sell opportunity may occur if:
- Price rejects both M15 FVGs (indicating sell-side reaction).
- A 15-minute candle closes below 4169, confirming bearish intent.
- There is a clear market structure shift (MSS) or a lower high formation on M5–M15.
Key Reminders:
Don’t sell blindly into a bullish trend, wait for strong confirmations.
Look for liquidity resting below current lows as a potential target.
💡 Quote / Trivia for Traders:
Did you know? In trading, waiting is a position. Patience is a form of execution.
It's not just about entries and exits, the ability to wait for the right setup is what separates disciplined traders from impulsive ones.
ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 2.0 – (14/10/2025, U.S. SESSION)Gold continues to consolidate after a strong intraday rebound from 4,090. The market is showing compression between 4,125–4,144, forming a temporary equilibrium structure after Friday’s impulsive rejection from 4,179. Volatility is expected to increase as liquidity builds ahead of U.S. CPI data tomorrow.
⸻
🧭 MARKET STRUCTURE OVERVIEW
• Trend Context: Macro bias remains bullish (D1 uptrend intact), but short-term distribution structure is visible below 4,144–4,150.
• Liquidity Zones:
• Buy-side liquidity resting above 4,150–4,165.
• Sell-side liquidity below 4,093–4,072.
• Market Cycle Stage: Reaccumulation or pre-breakout compression.
⸻
🔍 MULTI-TIMEFRAME TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
D1 – Macro Trend Context
• Price action: Successive bullish candles above 20EMA and 50EMA.
• RSI (81.9): Overbought but still supportive — structure points to controlled retracement before continuation.
• MACD: Bullish momentum moderating, suggesting potential pause before trend expansion.
• Key level: Daily resistance at 4,179.70 (weak high), immediate support 4,084–4,063.
H1 – Intraday Structure
• Clean Break of Structure (BOS) from 4,090 → 4,137, followed by consolidation.
• Minor lower high confirmed at 4,144, forming temporary range.
• RSI at 57 — neutral, showing balanced order flow.
• MACD histogram contracting, indicating loss of bullish momentum.
• Current structure favors a pullback toward the Golden Zone before next directional move.
15M–5M – Short-Term Precision View
• Clear CHoCH observed below 4,132.
• EMA cluster flattening (20EMA ≈ 4,130, 50EMA ≈ 4,125).
• Short-term buyers defending 4,125–4,120, but volume divergence showing early exhaustion.
• A break below 4,125 would confirm liquidity sweep and open the door for 4,093–4,072 retracement.
⸻
📊 FIBONACCI GOLDEN ZONE ALIGNMENT
• Swing High: 4,179
• Swing Low: 4,090
➡️ Golden Zone = 4,124 – 4,136
This zone coincides with the 1H resistance confluence, trendline touchpoint, and intraday imbalance fill. It serves as the key decision zone for U.S. session traders.
⸻
🎯 HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE SETUPS
1️⃣ Bullish Continuation Scenario
• Confirmation: Break & retest above 4,144.
• Entry: Buy on retest of 4,144–4,147 zone.
• Targets: 4,165 → 4,179 → 4,200
• Stop-loss: Below 4,125 (structure invalidation).
• Rationale: Reclaiming prior supply + momentum expansion expected if DXY weakens.
2️⃣ Bearish Corrective Scenario
• Confirmation: Rejection from 4,136–4,144 (Golden Zone).
• Entry: Sell from 4,136–4,140 range with candle confirmation.
• Targets: 4,110 → 4,093 → 4,072
• Stop-loss: Above 4,150.
• Rationale: RSI divergence + MACD histogram contraction + liquidity sweep above previous highs.
⸻
📅 FUNDAMENTAL CATALYSTS
• 🕐 No major U.S. economic data today, but traders are positioning ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report, which will define midweek volatility.
• 🕐 DXY remains stable near 104.90, keeping gold capped intraday.
• 🕐 Treasury yields flat; risk sentiment mixed — aligning with gold’s consolidation.
⸻
⚠️ KEY TECHNICAL LEVELS
• Major Resistance: 4,144 / 4,165 / 4,179
• Intraday Support: 4,125 / 4,110 / 4,093 / 4,072
• Extreme Levels: 4,050 support pivot / 4,200 macro extension.
⸻
🧩 SENTIMENT & SUMMARY
Gold is currently in a compression phase between intraday supply (4,136–4,144) and demand (4,110–4,125).
Expect low volatility until a clear break of structure occurs.
📈 Above 4,144 → momentum resumes toward 4,165–4,179.
📉 Below 4,110 → corrective wave extends into 4,093–4,072 before potential bounce.
The safest approach for institutional-style execution is to wait for confirmation at the boundaries of the Golden Zone rather than pre-positioning.
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Not a bad day although very quiet due to the ranging. We managed to hit the region we wanted over the Asia session and then ended up waiting all day for our EXC target to complete to end the day.
We can now see a little pressure downside but not enough to call it a reversal while we're also now between an order region 4058 resistance and 4033 support. For that reason, we'll plot the path we're looking for but any attempts will require tight stops, just in case we get a break of 4058 which will then void the move.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Correction down for goldHi traders,
Last week gold went up some more and started a correction down.
This could become a bigger correction but at the moment we could see one more move down for next week.
Let's see what price does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction up on a lower timeframe and a change in orderflow to bearish to trade (short term) shorts.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
Market Ignites!Gold Set to Open the 4400 Chapter!Supported by multiple structures including the W-shaped double bottom structure and the ascending triangle, gold continues to rise. The current highest has reached the area near 4364. The bullish trend is running well. It can be seen that even if the retracement space increases, the short position still does not have continuity. After gold retreated and stimulated liquidity, a large amount of off-market wait-and-see funds entered the market to bet on bulls, and gold strongly regained most of its lost ground.
It is actually very difficult to predict the upper high point of the current market trend. The resistance area that can be seen in the short term is around 4365, followed by the area around 4380. If gold touches the above resistance area, there may still be signs of a slight pullback. Therefore, the support areas we need to pay attention to are first the area around 4330, and secondly the area around 4310. If gold can still hold above the above support areas during the retracement, it is likely that gold will hit the previous high again, or even break through the previous high and enter the 4400 era!
Therefore, the short-term trading strategy is clear:
1. If gold continues to rebound to the 4365-4375 area, we can consider shorting gold and capitalizing on a pullback.
2. If gold retreats first, we can consider going long in the 4330-4320 area.
Time is over. XAUUSDThey’ll tell you gold is going to $5,000 or $10,000, but the reality this week is different. The market was dominated by downward pressure on Friday, signaling that this bearish momentum could continue into next week. We may see a short retracement on Monday or Tuesday, followed by a potential drop toward $4,000.
This could be an opportunity to rotate capital from gold into cryptocurrencies, potentially creating some psychological pressure on the metals sector.
The “banana rally” has hit gold: nine consecutive weeks of gains historically precede corrections of 10–30% in the following weeks.
ANALYSIS FOR THE WEEK Gold retraced down on Friday to create a higher low and tested a major zone around 4190 area, if it closed below 4190 it would have triggered more sells but it didn't and got rejected thereby closing above 4200 and this is a sign of bullish resumption and as a trader with fair understanding of the market the next thing to look for is a buy and the first best place to buy is at 4235-30 and hold it but if you want to really manage your trade, i suggest you close at 4335-40 and if it closes above 4365 then you target a buy again at 4365-60 area and hold for ever,
price could be rejected at 4340 or anywhere within the upper rectangular block and sell to close below 4190 for it to sell more for some days, so to prevent losing gained profits you can close at 4340 in order to be at the safer side incase the market decides to change to long term sells, if you have the courage to hold, then you can hold because the trend is bullish overall and i will update it too, if it decides to change direction i will signal it early before it becomes late.
Clue: if Monday closes with a bullish candle especially above 4365 then we are buying from Tuesday going, but if it closes bearish on Monday (D1) then we will definitely sell from Tuesday going especially if it closes below 4190.
2
GOLD 30M - time to cool off after the rally?After a sharp rally, gold seems ready for a breather. The chart shows a break of the short-term trendline followed by a retest from below. The price is now hovering near $4250, testing the 0.618 Fibonacci level - a classic resistance area where sellers often step in.
If the pullback continues, the next downside targets lie near $4185 and $4064. However, as long as the $4200 support holds, bulls still have a chance to regain control.
Fundamentally , gold remains supported by global uncertainty and dovish central banks, but technically, a healthy correction was long overdue.
Tactical plan: watch $4260 closely. If sellers hold, the drop could extend. If buyers reclaim the level - bears will have to retreat.
Remember: don’t try to catch falling gold - it cuts both ways.
XAU updated😋
What I say!!!!!
$4245 en route, $4318 settled!!!!!!
Asia lows in sight!!!!
I’m gonna position myself here on 40s….
Light, very light drops. We’ll get our long targets at $4484.73. Easy.
It’s a next week job for uncle ling maybe or uncle trump.
$4318 remains the super handle and scale ins or profiles can made from this handle.
Luv to all!!!! ❤️
Bleed for me 🩸
Interest rate cuts and safe-haven support gold. 4,400 is unstoppInformation Summary:
Spot gold surged strongly in early Asian trading on Friday, surging over 1.2% to a record high of $4,379.38 per ounce. Gold prices have risen nearly 9% this week and are expected to continue rising for nine consecutive weeks. This surge is primarily driven by strong market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in October and December, coupled with a surge in SPDR gold holdings, which has boosted bullish sentiment.
In addition to monetary policy expectations, multiple positive factors are fueling gold's upward momentum. The risk of a US government shutdown and the tense international trade situation continue to attract safe-haven funds to gold. At the same time, the continued gold purchases by central banks of many countries around the world and the long-term trend of "de-dollarization" have fundamentally consolidated the support for gold. Amidst increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty, gold's safe-haven properties are becoming more prominent, and analysts believe that a challenge to the $4,400 mark may be just around the corner.
Market Analysis:
Technically, after a strong breakout above key resistance at $4,200, gold is now approaching the psychologically important $4,400 level, maintaining its short-term bullish trend.
The trading strategy recommends focusing on whether the market can continue to be strong, but be wary of the risk of profit-taking at high levels. A conservative strategy should prioritize buying on dips, with the key support range moving up to $4,310-4,300. If prices fall back to this area and find effective support, it would be a good opportunity to go long with the trend, targeting a new high of $4,400. However, it is crucial to note that an unexpected break below $4,300 could trigger a significant technical correction, potentially leading to a deeper correction towards $4,250.
Therefore, caution is advised when pursuing long positions at current highs, with strict stop-loss orders in place.
Trading strategy:
Buy stocks in batches when the price dips back to the 4320-4315 range. Set a stop-loss at 4310. Profit range: 4360-4370-4390.
XAUUSD 17-19 Oct 2025Gold Spot Price remaining strong with true zeros well below however price targets shifting slightly up into end of Week.
Monitoring 4238-4260 for Profit Taking & focusing on potential Long entries from with 4199, 4164 4130 4108 or 4075 & Below.
I do not foresee price achieving any move substantial below 4064-4021
*Not advice, personal thoughts ONLY.
Explosive Battle Ahead — Can Gold Smash Through 4180 Again?Gold retreated $90 from 4180 to around 4090, then hit the 4100-4090 area twice before rebounding, and is currently consolidating around 4150. Although the short-term retracement of gold is not small, it is obvious that it has not destroyed the upward trend and pattern structure. However, it has exacerbated market differences to a certain extent and also increased short-term volatility. First, 4160 represents the 23.6% retracement level. Next, we must closely monitor two areas. First, 4160 represents the 23.6% retracement level of the recent short-term rally. If gold fails to break through this area during its subsequent rebound, it could form a technical M-shaped double top with the 4180 high in the short term, favoring a downward trend for gold and potentially leading to a further correction.
Second, we must pay close attention to the area around 4125, which represents the 61.8% retracement level of the recent short-term rally. If gold remains above 4125 during its subsequent pullback, it indicates that the bullish trend in gold has not ended and that it may continue to reach new highs.
Based on the above considerations, regarding short-term trading:
1. First, we can consider shorting gold in small quantities in the 4150-4160 area, and then patiently wait for gold to retrace.
2. Once gold retreats to the 4125-4115 area, we can try to go long again, and then patiently wait for gold to rebound further, or even retest the recent high near 4180.