XAUUSD – Wave 1 Completed, Is the Major Wave 3 About to Begin?Higher Timeframe Outlook (Daily/Weekly)
As highlighted in the previous analysis, price has been unfolding exactly in line with our higher timeframe scenario, moving within wave (3). This confirms that the bullish structure remains intact.
📉 H4 Analysis
On the 4H chart, price appears to be completing wave (1) of (3).
At this point, two possible scenarios for wave (2) are on the table:
1️⃣ Price Correction: A deeper retracement with lower price levels.
2️⃣ Time Correction: A sideways consolidation instead of a sharp decline.
We are waiting for the market to progress a bit further in order to confirm whether the correction will be price-based or time-based. Once clarified, we can identify the best buying opportunities for the continuation of the larger wave (3) rally.
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🚀 Who am I?
I'm Mahdi, a prop firm trader with 7+ years of experience in technical analysis, mainly focusing on Smart Money Concepts and Elliott Wave theory.
I specialize in delivering high-quality trading signals, market insights, and educational content tailored for serious traders and investors.
📊 My Tools: SMC, Elliott Wave, Fibonacci, Liquidity Grabs, Order Blocks
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GOLDMINI trade ideas
XAUUSD Professional OutlookXAUUSD Professional Outlook
Gold has been carving out a strong bullish structure, showing resilience after multiple liquidity sweeps and rejections from deeper zones. The chart indicates that buyers continue to dominate, with price currently pressing toward a critical resistance region.
🔹 Key Observations
Structure Alignment
The market has successfully defended every higher low, proving the strength of buyers.
Recent momentum confirms that demand zones are being respected while supply zones are gradually weakening.
Support & Demand Control
3320 – 3330 stands as a major structural support, where liquidity was swept and buyers re-entered aggressively.
Current buying zone around 3380 – 3400 is the short-term level where fresh orders may accumulate before continuation.
Resistance in Focus
The resistance block around 3415 – 3440 is the immediate test.
A rejection here could trigger a controlled pullback, but the probability favors a bullish breakout given the ongoing higher-low pattern.
Liquidity Dynamics
Smart money has already cleared liquidity below the July swing.
Market is now targeting liquidity pockets above, aligning with a push toward the 3440+ region.
🎯 Trading Scenarios
Bullish Case (Higher Probability)
Buy retracement toward 3380 – 3400, with upside targets at 3440 and extended 3480 – 3500 if breakout occurs.
Bearish Risk Case
Failure to hold above 3380 could push price back into 3320 demand, where the larger bullish thesis would be tested.
📝 Final Note
Gold is operating in a controlled bullish cycle with momentum favoring buyers. As long as 3320 holds firm, dips remain buying opportunities, and the path of least resistance is upward. The upcoming test at 3440 will be decisive for either a strong continuation or a temporary pullback
Gold (XAU/USD) – 2H – Inducement & HTM OBGold (XAU/USD) – 2H – Inducement & HTM OB
🔹 Market Structure
The chart shows a potential inducement pattern above liquidity levels, designed to trap early buyers before the real move.
Price has created a fake bullish impulse (a–b–c–d–e), suggesting exhaustion and a setup for downside liquidity grab.
The liquidity above 3,416 has been taken, aligning with inducement theory.
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🔹 Inducement & Liquidity
After inducement, price is expected to sweep liquidity resting around the 3,400 – 3,390 area.
This liquidity grab could provide momentum toward the HTM Order Block (OB) zone around 3,370 – 3,365.
That zone is the higher-probability demand area where smart money may step in.
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🔹 HTM Order Block (OB)
The HTM OB aligns with strong confluence:
Previous demand zone
Overlapping liquidity pool
Technical retracement structure
Once price taps this level, a bullish reversal toward higher levels becomes probable.
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🔹 Outlook & Trading Plan
Bearish short-term: Expect continuation to the downside after inducement, targeting 3,390 → 3,370.
Bullish mid-term: From HTM OB (3,370 – 3,365), potential rebound upward toward 3,416+.
Invalidation: If price closes strong above 3,430, the bearish inducement setup is invalid.
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✅ Bias: Bearish into HTM OB → Bullish from demand zone
🎯 Targets: 3,390 → 3,370 → 3,416+
❌ Invalidation: Close above 3,430
Divergence has appeared at H4 – TOP IS ABOUT TO BE FORMEDGold SMC Daily Plan – 28/08
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Market Context (SMC perspective):
• Price is currently trading around 3395–3396 after an impulsive bullish run and showing early bearish divergence on H4, signaling a potential short-term top.
• Key resistance sits at 3400 – a clean break above could sweep liquidity towards 342x–343x, retesting old ATH.
• If 3370 support breaks, price could retrace deeper into the 335x BUY zone for a strong bullish setup.
________________________________________
Key Levels:
• Resistance: 3396–3400 (Sell Zone), 342x–343x (liquidity sweep area)
• Support: 3370, 3354–3352 (Buy Zone), 3325 (SL for buys)
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SMC Zones & Liquidity Pools:
• BUY ZONE 1: 3354–3352 (below liquidity sweep under 3370)
o SL: 3347
o TP: 3365 → 3375 → 3385 → 3395 → 3400+
• BUY ZONE 2: 3380 – 3382
o SL: 3374
o TP: 3390 → 3400 → 3415 →3430 → 3450+
• SELL ZONE: 3408 - 3410 (above recent high)
o SL: 3416
o TP: 3390 → 3380 → 3375 → 3360
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Plan & Scenarios:
1. Sell Scenario (Primary Bias – Divergence Play):
o Wait for liquidity grab above 3396–3399 (sweep into resistance)
o Enter short with SL above 3403
o Scale out profits at 3390–3380–3375; leave runner targeting 3360 if support breaks
2. Buy Scenario (Counter Play – Break & Retest):
o If price dips into 3354–3352 buy zone, look for bullish reaction (choch / BOS on lower TF)
o Enter long with SL below 3347
o Target 3365–3375–3385–3395–3400+
________________________________________
Confluence:
• H4 bearish divergence indicating exhaustion at top
• Untapped liquidity zones above 3396 and below 3370
• FVG and imbalance areas aligning with the 335x buy zone
Gold Holds Steady – Fed Rate Cut Fears Continue to Support📊 Market dynamics:
• Gold prices are holding firm around $3,390.27/oz, while December futures trade near $3,447.40/oz, as investors await the PCE data and further Fed signals.
• CME FedWatch shows over 88% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the next Fed meeting.
• A weaker USD and ongoing political turmoil around the Fed continue to provide safe-haven support for gold.
📉 Technical analysis:
• Key resistance: $3,400 – $3,435
• Nearest support: $3,375 – $3,384
• EMA 09: Needs to be checked on real-time chart; gold price is consolidating close to short-term moving averages.
• Candlestick / volume / momentum: Recent 2-week highs show some profit-taking pressure, but Fed uncertainty and USD weakness still support short-term bullish momentum.
📌 Outlook:
• In the short term, gold may extend higher if PCE data is weaker and the Fed signals more easing.
• However, if US data surprises on the upside and the Fed stays hawkish, gold could retest the $3,375 – $3,380 support zone.
💡 Suggested trading strategies:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD zone: $3,393 – $3,396
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
🛑 SL: $3,380 – $3,385
🔺 BUY XAU/USD zone: $3,375 – $3,378
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
🛑 SL: $3,365 – $3,370
XAUUSD (Gold vs USD) on the 1H timeframe.XAUUSD (Gold vs USD) on the 1H timeframe with Ichimoku cloud, trendlines, and marked target zones.
From what’s visible:
Current price: around 3340.38
First target (TP1): around 3356 – 3360 zone (mid-green zone labeled "TARGET POINT")
Second target (TP2): around 3375 – 3380 zone (upper green zone labeled "TARGET POINT")
📌 So my chart suggests a potential bullish move with Target 1 = ~3360 and Target 2 = ~3375–3380.
Gold (XAU/USD) 15-Minute Chart – Bearish Trade SetupThis 15-minute candlestick chart of Gold (XAU/USD) shows a bearish trade setup with a short entry around $3,475. A clear stop-loss is placed near $3,492, while three take-profit levels (TP1, TP2, TP3) are marked progressively lower at key support zones. The chart reflects a potential trend reversal following a bullish impulse, with the trader anticipating a retracement toward previous consolidation zones.
XAUUSD(1D) Testing Top Resistance|INSANE MOVE BREAKING ATH?FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Structure | Trend | Key Reaction Zones
Gold is testing the major resistance zone near 3,500 🔴, where a possible triple top formation could trigger. Strong demand 🟢 remains around 3,315, with trendline support building higher lows.
Market Overview
XAUUSD has rallied strongly into the 3,500 resistance area, but history shows repeated rejections from this zone. If the triple top holds, sellers may drive price lower toward 3,435 and 3,315 demand. However, a daily close above 3,502 would invalidate the bearish setup and open space for higher continuation.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀 → Breakout above 3,502 confirms further upside.
🎯 Target 1: 3,550
🎯 Target 2: 3,600
❌ Bearish Case 📉 → Rejection from 3,500 zone leads to pullback.
🎯 Target 1: 3,435
🎯 Target 2: 3,315
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 3,500 → 3,550
Support 🟢: 3,435 → 3,315
⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
XAUUSD 30M – Intraday Plan Around the RangePrice is holding between $3,417.84 (resistance) and $3,403.41 (support). We’re trading around $3,410–$3,411 inside a tight box. Scalps can work, but reversals are quick.
🔼 Bullish Plan (needs confirmation)
Trigger: A clean 30min body close above $3,417.84 (not just a wick).
Targets: $3,419.55 → $3,420.54 → $3,422.10.
Management: Take partials at $3,419.55, move SL to breakeven once $3,418 holds on a retest.
🔽 Bearish Plan (cleaner below support)
Trigger: 30min body close below $3,403.41.
Targets: $3,401.29 → $3,398.36 (trail if sellers stay in control).
Management: Scale partials at $3,401.29, protect the rest at breakeven.
🔄 Range Scalp (higher risk, small size)
Shorts: $3,416–$3,417 on a clear rejection → aim $3,410–$3,412, SL above rejection high / $3,420.
Longs: $3,403–$3,404 on a strong rejection wick → aim mid-range, SL below $3,401.
✅ Break Confirmation
Strong 30min close through the level.
❌ Invalidation
Breakout closes back inside the box on the next candle (trap).
Multiple wick with no momentum.
📌 Bottom Line
Above $3,417.84 → bullish bias to $3,420.54 and $3,422.10.
Below $3,403.41 → bearish bias to $3,401.29 and $3,398.36.
Inside the box = scalp only, keep risk tight.
Gold LONGAlright Folks, Gold delivered last 2 week as seen on this chart: www.tradingview.com
Now we have an interesting situation. At the moment the bets on Fed rate cuts are glowing, Gold reached an interesting point. This is a decisive point, where Gold will decide to either keep up with the momentum upwards. Now we will switch to the 1Hr timeframe to watch price action out for a break above friday's high and an entry on the 1Hr OB . Please this setup follows a clear fundamental narrative as well. As from wednesday we shall understand a clear direction. Looking at the other risk assets, the investors are switching to risk off, + the possible reduction of the opportu8nity cost of holding non-risk assets like gold. Tensions all over the world making to and fros. we have 2 possible scenarios for half day of monday, bullish continuation directly + a break and retest . If we see a deep retracement on Monday, look for a retest on the 1hr OB down there..
trade what you see, not what you think
# XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast - 2# XAUUSD Gold Technical Analysis & Trading Strategy Forecast - August 2025
Comprehensive Multi-Timeframe Analysis for Intraday and Swing Trading
Current Price: $3,448.12 USD (as of August 31, 2025, 16:03 UTC+4)
24H Change: +0.91%
Monthly Performance: +5.31%
YTD Performance: +37.77%
Market Sentiment: Bullish with Momentum Consolidation
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Executive Summary
Gold has reached unprecedented heights, trading above $3,400 for the first time in history. Gold rose to $3,448.50 on August 29, 2025, up 0.91% from the previous day, with prices rising 5.31% over the past month and up 37.77% compared to the same time last year. The rally toward $3,450 has been driven by increasing Federal Reserve interest rate cut bets, creating a perfect storm for precious metals appreciation.
Key Technical Levels:
Immediate Support: $3,380 - $3,400 (Previous resistance turned support)
Critical Support: $3,300 - $3,320 (Major consolidation zone)
Key Resistance: $3,480 - $3,500 (Psychological barrier)
Extended Target: $3,550 - $3,600 (Next major resistance cluster)
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Market Context & Fundamental Backdrop
Federal Reserve Monetary Policy Impact
The US Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate in the 4.25 to 4.5 percent range during its July 2025 meeting, maintaining a cautious stance amid evolving economic conditions. Fed interest rates are driving gold toward $3,500/oz with monetary policy impacts creating significant investment opportunities.
Macroeconomic Environment
Fed Funds Rate: 4.25-4.50% (unchanged but dovish signals emerging)
Inflation Expectations: Moderating, supporting rate cut narrative
Geopolitical Tensions: Elevated, providing safe-haven demand
Dollar Strength: Weakening on rate cut expectations
Gold's Fundamental Drivers
1. Monetary Policy Anticipation: Market pricing in multiple Fed rate cuts
2. Currency Debasement: Continued fiscal expansion supporting hard assets
3. Institutional Demand: Central bank buying and ETF inflows
4. Technical Momentum: Breaking multi-year resistance levels
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Chart Analysis & Pattern Recognition
Long-Term Structure Analysis
From the daily chart provided, several key observations emerge:
Major Trend Analysis:
Primary Trend: Strongly bullish since October 2024 lows around $2,600
Current Phase: Explosive breakout above $3,400 resistance
Trend Characteristics: Steep ascent with minimal corrections
Volume Confirmation: Strong buying interest on breakouts
Key Price Levels from Chart:
Historical Low (Oct 2024): ~$2,580
Major Support Zone: $3,200 - $3,300
Breakout Level: $3,400 (successfully breached)
Current Resistance: $3,480 - $3,500
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Multi-Methodology Technical Analysis
1. Candlestick Pattern Analysis
Recent Formation: Strong bullish momentum candles
Pattern: Consecutive higher highs and higher lows
Current Structure: Testing resistance with strong bodies
Volume Analysis: Increasing on advances, light on corrections
Momentum: Sustained buying pressure evident
2. Elliott Wave Theory Analysis
Wave Structure: Completing extended Wave 5 of larger degree
Primary Count: In Wave 5 of Cycle degree from 2020 lows
Current Position: Extended Wave 5 targeting $3,500-$3,600
Subwave Analysis: Minor wave 3 or 5 in progress
Fibonacci Extensions:
- 1.618 extension: $3,520
- 2.618 extension: $3,680
Invalidation Level: Break below $3,300 would reset count
3. Harmonic Pattern Recognition
Active Pattern: Bullish Deep Crab completion zone
Pattern Type: Large timeframe Deep Crab from 2020 lows
Completion Zone: $3,200-$3,400 (completed)
Current Phase: Impulse move following harmonic completion
Next Targets:
- Conservative: $3,550
- Extended: $3,750
4. Wyckoff Market Cycle Analysis
Current Phase: Markup Phase (Distribution Signs Monitored)
Background: Institutional accumulation completed below $3,200
Current Action: Strong markup with broad participation
Volume Characteristics: Healthy on advances, suspect on declines
Warning Signs: Watch for climactic volume above $3,500
Distribution Alerts: Any selling on strength above $3,480
5. W.D. Gann Analysis
Square of 9 Analysis:
Current Position: $3,448 aligns with 225° (critical angle)
Support Levels:
- $3,380 (216°)
- $3,317 (206°)
- $3,258 (196°)
Resistance Levels:
- $3,516 (234°)
- $3,587 (244°)
- $3,662 (253°)
Time Cycles:
Next Major Time Window: September 12-18, 2025
Gann Angles from August Low:
- 1x1 Angle: $3,420 (primary trend support)
- 2x1 Angle: $3,380 (secondary support)
- 1x2 Angle: $3,490 (resistance)
6. Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Analysis
Cloud Status: Price strongly above Kumo with expanding cloud
Tenkan-Sen (9): $3,425 (bullish signal above)
Kijun-Sen (26): $3,380 (strong support)
Senkou Span A: $3,400 (cloud top support)
Senkou Span B: $3,320 (major cloud support)
Chikou Span: Above price action confirming bullish momentum
Signal Interpretation: All Ichimoku elements align bullishly
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Technical Indicators Analysis
Momentum Indicators
RSI (14-period) Analysis:
4H RSI: 68.5 (approaching overbought but still room)
Daily RSI: 72.3 (overbought but strong trend)
Weekly RSI: 78.2 (extended but not diverging)
Divergence Watch: No negative divergence observed
MACD Analysis:
Signal: Bullish crossover confirmed on all timeframes
Histogram: Expanding positive histogram
Momentum: Accelerating with no signs of weakness
Warning Level: Watch for divergence above $3,500
Volatility & Trend Strength
Bollinger Bands (20, 2):
Current Position: Upper band walk in progress
Band Configuration: Expanding bands indicating strong trend
Squeeze Analysis: Recent expansion from consolidation
Volatility: Increasing supporting continued move
Average True Range (ATR):
Daily ATR: $45-55 (elevated volatility)
Trend Strength: ATR expanding confirming strong trend
Stop Loss Guidance: Use 2x ATR for swing positions
Volume Analysis
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP):
Daily VWAP: $3,420 (key support)
Weekly VWAP: $3,350 (major support)
Volume Profile:
- High Volume Node: $3,200-$3,300
- Value Area High: $3,380
- Point of Control: $3,280
Volume Characteristics:
Accumulation Evidence: Higher volume on advances
Distribution Watch: Monitor volume above $3,480
Institutional Activity: Consistent buying support
Moving Average Configuration
Short-term Alignment:
EMA 21: $3,410 (immediate support)
EMA 50: $3,350 (intermediate support)
SMA 100: $3,280 (major trend support)
EMA 200: $3,180 (long-term trend support)
Golden Cross Status: All major averages in bullish alignment
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Multi-Timeframe Trading Strategy
Intraday Trading Strategy (5M - 4H)
# Primary Bullish Scenario (70% Probability)
Long Entry Opportunities:
Entry 1: $3,420-$3,440 (VWAP support retest)
Entry 2: $3,380-$3,400 (previous resistance turned support)
Entry 3: $3,480+ breakout (momentum continuation)
Stop Loss Levels:
Aggressive: $3,380 (below key support)
Conservative: $3,350 (below VWAP support)
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $3,480 (immediate resistance)
TP2: $3,520 (Fibonacci extension)
TP3: $3,550 (psychological level)
Risk-Reward Analysis: 1:3.5 average across setups
# Timeframe-Specific Strategies:
5M/15M Charts:
Scalping Range: $3,420-$3,480
Entry Signals: Pullbacks to 21 EMA
Quick Targets: $20-30 moves
30M/1H Charts:
Swing Setup: Breakout above $3,450
Targets: $3,500-$3,520
Time Horizon: 2-4 hours
4H Charts:
Position Trading: Above $3,400 support
Major Target: $3,600
Time Horizon: 1-2 weeks
Swing Trading Strategy (Daily - Monthly)
# Long-Term Bullish Campaign
Position Building Strategy:
Accumulation Zone: $3,350-$3,420
Core Position: 60% of intended size
Add on Strength: 25% above $3,480
Final Addition: 15% on $3,500 breakout
Stop Loss Management:
Initial Stop: $3,280 (below monthly support)
Trailing Stop: Use 21-day EMA
Time Stop: Exit if no progress in 30 days
Target Progression:
Short-term: $3,550 (September target)
Medium-term: $3,700 (Q4 2025 target)
Long-term: $4,000 (2026 target)
Hedging and Risk Management
# Portfolio Hedging Strategies
Gold Miners Hedge:
- Long physical gold, short gold miners on ratio extremes
- Monitor GDX/GLD ratio for opportunities
Currency Hedge:
- DXY inverse correlation monitoring
- Consider EURUSD long positions as dollar hedge
Interest Rate Hedge:
- TLT positions to hedge rate cut scenarios
- Monitor 10-year yield for confirmation
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Advanced Pattern Recognition
Bull Trap Analysis
Potential Bull Trap Zones:
Level 1: $3,500-$3,520 (psychological resistance)
Level 2: $3,600-$3,650 (major Fibonacci cluster)
Warning Signs:
- Volume divergence on new highs
- RSI negative divergence
- Increased volatility without progress
Trap Avoidance:
- Wait for volume confirmation on breakouts
- Use smaller position sizes near resistance
- Implement tight stops above $3,520
Bear Trap Opportunities
Bear Trap Setup Levels:
Primary: $3,380-$3,400 (false breakdown)
Secondary: $3,300-$3,320 (major support test)
Entry Strategy: Quick recovery above breakdown level
Target: Previous highs plus 50%
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Sector Rotation and Correlation Analysis
Gold Mining Stocks Analysis
GDX/GLD Ratio: Currently extended, expect compression
Individual Miners:
Barrick Gold (GOLD): Leverage play on gold upside
Newmont (NEM): Defensive gold exposure
Strategy: Rotate from physical to miners on ratio extremes
Currency Correlations
USD Index (DXY): Strong negative correlation maintained
EURUSD: Positive correlation with gold strengthening
JPYUSD: Safe haven competition dynamic
Commodity Complex
Silver (XAGUSD): Lagging gold, potential catch-up trade
Copper: Industrial demand indicator watch
Oil: Inflation correlation monitoring
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Economic Calendar Impact Analysis
High-Impact Events (September 2025)
September 2-6, 2025:
Tuesday: US ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: ADP Employment Change
Thursday: US Initial Jobless Claims
Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls (Critical)
Fed Related Events:
September 12: Core CPI Data
September 18: FOMC Meeting Minutes
September 20: Fed Officials Speeches
Trading Approach Around Events:
- Reduce positions 2 hours before NFP
- Increase hedging before FOMC minutes
- Use options for event-driven strategies
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Scenario Planning & Contingency Analysis
Scenario 1: Fed Cuts Aggressively (40% Probability)
Trigger: 50bp rate cut in September
Gold Target: $3,700-$3,800
Strategy: Maximum long exposure
Timeline: 30-45 days
Scenario 2: Fed Remains Hawkish (25% Probability)
Trigger: No rate cuts, hawkish rhetoric
Gold Target: $3,100-$3,200 retracement
Strategy: Defensive positioning, reduce leverage
Timeline: 2-3 weeks
Scenario 3: Market Crisis/Risk-Off (20% Probability)
Trigger: Geopolitical escalation or financial crisis
Gold Target: $3,800-$4,000 (crisis high)
Strategy: Maximum safe-haven positioning
Timeline: Immediate
Scenario 4: Inflation Resurgence (15% Probability)
Trigger: Unexpected inflation spike
Gold Target: $3,600-$3,900
Strategy: Inflation hedge positioning
Timeline: 45-60 days
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Options and Derivatives Strategy
Options Strategies for Gold Exposure
Bull Call Spreads:
Structure: Long $3,400 calls, short $3,500 calls
Expiration: 30-45 days
Max Profit: Limited but defined
Risk: Premium paid
Protective Puts:
Strike: $3,300 (below major support)
Expiration: Monthly
Purpose: Portfolio insurance
Cost: 1-2% of position value
ETF and Futures Considerations
Physical Gold ETFs:
GLD: Largest, most liquid
IAU: Lower expense ratio
SGOL: Swiss storage option
Gold Futures:
GC Contracts: Direct price exposure
Micro Gold: Smaller position sizing
Margin Requirements: Monitor closely
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Technical Rating & Probability Assessment
Overall Technical Rating: STRONG BUY
Confidence Level: 8.5/10
Timeframe Ratings:
Intraday (1H-4H): BUY (85% bullish)
Short-term (Daily): STRONG BUY (90% bullish)
Medium-term (Weekly): STRONG BUY (85% bullish)
Long-term (Monthly): BUY (75% bullish)
Key Bullish Catalysts:
1. Technical Breakout: Clean break above $3,400 resistance
2. Fed Policy: Rate cut expectations building
3. Momentum: All timeframes aligned bullishly
4. Volume: Confirming accumulation patterns
Bearish Risk Factors:
1. Overextension: RSI levels stretched on weekly charts
2. Fed Hawkishness: Potential policy surprise
3. Dollar Strength: DXY recovery could pressure gold
4. Profit Taking: Natural at psychological $3,500 level
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Weekly Trading Plan & Execution
Week of September 2-6, 2025
# Monday-Tuesday: Consolidation Expected
Strategy: Accumulate on dips to $3,420-$3,440
Targets: $3,480 resistance test
Risk Management: Tight stops below $3,400
# Wednesday-Thursday: Event Risk Management
Strategy: Reduce leverage ahead of economic data
Focus: Defensive positioning pre-NFP
Opportunity: Post-event volatility trades
# Friday: NFP Reaction Strategy
Bullish NFP: Sell the news, expect pullback
Bearish NFP: Add to long positions aggressively
Neutral NFP: Continue trend-following approach
Position Sizing Recommendations
Conservative: 2-3% portfolio allocation
Moderate: 5-7% portfolio allocation
Aggressive: 8-12% portfolio allocation
Risk per Trade: Maximum 1% of total capital
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Long-Term Investment Thesis
Secular Bull Market Drivers
Monetary Debasement: Continued fiat currency depreciation
Geopolitical Uncertainty: Ongoing global tensions
Central Bank Demand: Record official sector purchases
Supply Constraints: Limited new mine development
Price Targets by Timeline
Q4 2025: $3,600-$3,800
Q1 2026: $3,800-$4,200
End 2026: $4,200-$4,800
2027-2028: $5,000+ potential
Investment Allocation Strategy
Core Holdings: 40% physical gold/ETFs
Trading Position: 30% futures/options
Mining Exposure: 20% quality miners
Cash Reserve: 10% for opportunities
---
Risk Disclaimers and Considerations
Market Risks
Volatility Risk: Gold can experience sharp moves
Liquidity Risk: Reduced liquidity during market stress
Currency Risk: USD movements affect returns
Storage Risk: Physical gold storage considerations
Regulatory and Tax Implications
Tax Treatment: Different rules for physical vs. paper gold
Reporting Requirements: Large position disclosure rules
Regulatory Changes: Potential trading restrictions
Technical Analysis Limitations
Pattern Failure: Technical patterns can fail
Black Swan Events: Unexpected market shocks
Model Risk: Over-reliance on historical patterns
Execution Risk: Slippage and timing issues
---
Conclusion & Strategic Recommendations
Gold's technical picture presents one of the most compelling bullish setups in recent history. Gold closed August with a strong daily close in premium territory, pressing into the 3460–3480 supply zone, with bulls maintaining control of momentum as September opens.
Immediate Action Items:
1. Accumulate Positions: Use any dip to $3,400-$3,420 as buying opportunity
2. Manage Risk: Implement proper position sizing and stop losses
3. Monitor Fed Policy: Watch for dovish signals supporting further upside
4. Prepare for Breakout: Position for potential move to $3,550-$3,600
Key Success Factors:
Discipline: Stick to predetermined risk management rules
Patience: Allow patterns to develop fully
Flexibility: Adapt to changing market conditions
Diversification: Use multiple gold investment vehicles
The confluence of technical, fundamental, and sentiment factors creates a rare alignment supporting significantly higher gold prices. While short-term volatility is expected, the medium to long-term outlook remains decidedly bullish.
Final Rating: STRONG BUY with careful risk management
XAUUSD Weekly outlook 25-29 Aug, 2025XAUUSD Weekly Outlook (Swing Trading Perspective)
Gold has broken out of the descending channel after Powell hinted at potential rate cuts on Friday, which has shifted market sentiment bullish.
Currently, price is hovering at 3371 above a key demand zone around 3349 – 3355, which also aligns with the channel breakout & retest. A pullback into this zone would provide a high-probability swing entry, supported by demand structure and market fundamentals.
Trading Plan (Swing Buy Setup):
Entry Zone: 3349 – 3355 (retest of channel line + demand area)
Stop Loss: Below 3325 (invalidates demand structure)
Target: 3430 (major supply zone / weekly resistance)
Risk/Reward: ~2.3
Price has confirmed a bullish breakout of the falling channel.
The retest + demand area aligns with structure support and liquidity grab.
As long as price holds above 3350 zone, bias remains bullish.
First upside objective is 3390–3400, followed by a weekly swing target of 3430.
Bias: Bullish
Confirmation Needed: Clean retest and rejection from 3350 demand area before continuation.
Gold Faces Upward Pressure from Fundamentals: Levels to WatchGold is currently trading above the trend line from its historic high at the 3,410 level. However, let's summarize the developments for XAUSD since the beginning of the month. News since the beginning of August, particularly the Financial Times report on August 8 about Swiss gold bars being subject to tariffs, and the uncertainty caused by the delay in official confirmation, significantly widened the spread between spot gold and gold futures, with the average intraday spread around 35. After the official approval of the gold tariff, gold peaked at 3,409 on August 7 and then hit this month's low of 3,311 on August 20, forming a falling wedge pattern. Gold then attempted to break out of the wedge strongly and met its 200-hour moving average. And acted as resistance.
At the Jackson Hole Conference held in Wyoming, USA, Fed Chairman J. Powell drew attention to the downward pressure on the employment:"In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside-a challenging situation," Powell said in his remarks. "Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance."market and noted that they could change their monetary policy stance. Although Fed members and Powell reiterated their data-dependent stance. This speech was perceived as dovish by the market and interpreted as a signal for an interest rate cut in September. With this announcement, gold rose from 3,323 to 3,374 levels. Following this upward movement, gold continued within a rising wedge formation. However, on August 25, Fed member Lisa Cook was dismissed by US President Trump, and Cook's objection to this decision on legal grounds increased uncertainty in the market regarding interference with the Fed's independence of both means and purpose.
On August 28, gold reached around $3,420, its highest level this month. This breakout from the rising wedge may be misleading, but the pressure on the Fed and upcoming inflation and unemployment data may signal that upward pressure will continue. We clearly saw this month's PPI data breakdown, specifically in the Trade of Finished Goods section, that tariffs are accelerating inflation pass-through.In other words, tariffs have begun to have a serious impact on the trade balance, which means that future CPI (headline inflation) and PCE data could show a significant upward movement, increasing uncertainty and pushing gold prices higher.
In conclusion, the overall outlook for gold is upward. The 3,420 resistance level is currently critical, as it is both a Fibonacci retracement and a resistance level. If this level is broken, the upward movement could accelerate. Breaking the 3,420 resistance level would mean overcoming the trend coming from the 3,500 level, implying that there would be no other obstacle left to test the 3,450 level, the last resistance before the historical peak. However, if the technical analysis holds, the rising wedge formation carries downside risks. Breaking below the 3406 support level is critical in this regard; if broken, gold could exit the formation and begin a downward movement towards 3385.
XAU/USD Technical & Fundamental Outlook🔹 Technical Analysis
1️⃣ Support Zone Defense (3260–3280) 🛡️
Gold tested this area multiple times and each time buyers reacted strongly.
This shows institutions and smart money are accumulating long positions at this demand zone.
2️⃣ Liquidity Grab (Fake Break) 🌀
Price dipped below support, taking out sellers’ stop-losses.
This was a liquidity sweep, a common Smart Money Concept (SMC) move, which often precedes a sharp reversal.
3️⃣ Market Structure Shift 🔑
Downtrend produced Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL).
But now, a Higher Low (HL) has formed → the first sign of trend reversal from bearish to bullish.
4️⃣ Trendline Break 📈
The downward trendline has been broken.
Break of structure (BOS) confirms that momentum is shifting in favor of the bulls.
5️⃣ Price Action Outlook ⚡
As long as gold holds above 3340–3360, bullish structure remains valid.
Next upside targets → 3400 → 3440 resistance zone 🚀.
🔹 Fundamental Analysis
1️⃣ Weaker US Dollar (DXY) 📉
Recent data shows signs of economic slowdown in the US.
Fed leaning toward rate cuts in upcoming meetings.
Lower interest rates weaken the USD and support gold prices.
2️⃣ Safe-Haven Demand 🛡️
Ongoing geopolitical tensions 🌍 and global uncertainty drive investors into gold.
Gold acts as a hedge against risk, inflation, and volatility.
3️⃣ Bond Yields Falling 📉
Declining Treasury yields make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
Investors rotate into gold as real returns on bonds decrease.
4️⃣ Central Bank Buying 🏦
Several central banks (China, BRICS nations, etc.) are accumulating gold reserves.
This long-term demand provides strong support for gold prices.
🎯 Conclusion (Pro Trader View)
Technical:
Support zone held.
Higher Low formed.
Downtrend line broken.
→ Clear bullish structure.
Fundamental:
Weak USD, falling yields, safe-haven demand, and central bank buying all support gold.
👉 Outlook:
Gold is bullish. As long as price holds above 3340–3360, buyers will aim for 3400–3440 resistance 🚀.
XAUUSD: The Bullish Dragon Awakens
On this chart, gold (XAU/USD) sketches a classic Bullish Dragon—a reversal pattern whispering that bears are losing their grip. The pattern’s anatomy is clear: two deep lows forming the “legs,” a corrective peak as the “hump,” and now, the breakout thrust aiming skyward.
Entry sits just above the dragon’s back, near 3,383, signaling that the market is coiled for a bullish leap. The targets ahead—3,410 and 3,438—stand like twin summits, waiting for the climb. Below, the stop zone near 3,352 guards against failure, anchoring risk in a turbulent sea.
Continuation or Rejection?
Continuation Scenario: If price holds above the breakout line, momentum can ignite a rally toward 3,410 first, then 3,438, confirming the dragon’s strength.
Rejection Risk: A slip back under 3,352 would slay the pattern, sending gold tumbling toward 3,335 or lower.
With Trump’s recent dovish stance and push for rate cuts, real yields shrink, and gold gleams brighter as a refuge. This macro wind supports the dragon’s wings—policy favoring liquidity often fuels precious metal rallies.
Literary Verdict: The dragon breathes optimism, its path paved by softer monetary tones. If the macro breeze stays warm, expect golden skies above 3,438.
Daily Trading Plan – Gold (XAU/USD)Date: 27 August 2025
Timeframe: 1H (TradingView setup)
🔻 Sell Zone
Sell Entry: 3391 – 3393
Stop Loss (SL): 3398
Reasoning: Price has previously reacted strongly within this supply zone. A short entry is favoured if price retests this level, targeting liquidity lower down.
🔺 Buy Scalp Zone
Buy Entry (Scalp): 3351 – 3349
Stop Loss (SL): 3345
Reasoning: Short-term buy scalp expected from demand zone, aligned with liquidity collection. Suitable for quick intraday trades with tight risk.
🔺 Buy & Hold Zone
Buy Entry (Swing/Hold): 3331 – 3329
Stop Loss (SL): 3321
Reasoning: Stronger demand zone for medium-term holding. If price sweeps liquidity into this deeper area, a reversal is highly probable.
📉 Market Bias
Overall structure shows liquidity grabs around supply and demand zones.
Expectation: Price may dip into scalp buy zone (3351–3349) first, and if broken, extend lower towards hold zone (3331–3329) before resuming bullish momentum.
⚠️ Risk Management
Use position sizing strictly (1–2% risk per trade).
Wait for confirmation (candlestick rejection / liquidity sweep) before entry.
Be mindful of news events near month-end that could impact volatility.
👉 Summary:
Sell scalp at 3391–3393 (SL 3398).
Buy scalp at 3351–3349 (SL 3345).
Buy hold at 3331–3329 (SL 3321).
Trade cautiously around the liquidity line – key level for intraday direction.
XAUUSD Trade Idea With Fibonacci Retracement.Analysis: XAUUSD is in Bullish Trend to Reach it's Resistance Levels. Therefore, I follow long positions till my Targets.
🔹Entry Levels Are Given Below:
🔹 Entry Zone: 3367.800 – 3372.800 (tight SL below this zone)
🔹 Direction: Long (Bullish)
🔹 Targets:
✅ 1st Target → 3390
✅ 2nd Target → 3399
🔹 Reasoning:
Overall trend remains bullish, supporting long positions.
Price is currently trading near 3376-75, retracing into my marked zone.
Fibonacci Retracement (50%–61%) aligns with this support area, increasing the probability of a bounce.
Looking for a continuation move toward 3390–3399 if buyers hold control.
⚠️ Risk Management: Using a tight stop loss to protect capital if structure fails.
✨ Summary: Watching for bullish continuation from 3367.80–3372.80 zone with upside targets at 3390 and 3399. Trend + Fibonacci confluence gives high-probability setup.
If you find this Idea useful, don't forget to like, comment and share to motivate me for uploading more setups.
Regards: Forex Insights Pro.
XAUUSD potential buy level for today!XAUUSD trade setup for today :
Before we look at potential entry in this pair first let’s look at multiple timeframe analysis in this market.
Monthly: Series of higher low and current monthly candle has got rejected from this support and started to move back to the upside with a strong momentum with higher possibility to break the support
Weekly: Previous weekly bullish candle shows possibility this week market to remain bullish. 3366.00 level just below the weekly open and close possibility to revert back to the upside.
Daily: Early Asian session has shown very strong rejection from the lower price therefore may bounce back to the upside from daily support of 3366.00
Entry timeframe 1H : Previous session 1h pin bar formation shows possible rejection, this session, potential for the price bounce back from the 1h low is aligning with daily and 4h support is potential entry!
Possible trade recommendation : Bullish entry with SL below around 1.5ATR
XAUUSD Outlook | 4H Smart Money & Liquidity MapGold on the 4H timeframe is currently trading around 3,371, consolidating after multiple CHoCH and BOS formations. Price action reflects an extended accumulation phase between a well-defined demand zone and a strong supply order block (OB). Liquidity is building both above and below key levels, suggesting that a sweep of one side is likely before any major expansion toward higher supply zones.
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📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (4H):
• 🔼 Buy Zone 3,277 – 3,280 (SL ~3,270): Deep liquidity pool; historically strong reaction area.
• 📍 Support / Pivot 3,338 – 3,346: Critical near-term pivot; a break and retest here could trigger a deeper liquidity sweep before reversal.
• 🔽 Imbalance 3,374 – 3,405: Price inefficiency zone; a likely magnet for rebalancing.
• 🔽 Strong Supply OB 3,405 – 3,438: Major upside target with strong potential sell-side reaction.
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📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
• ✅ Buy Idea – Liquidity Sweep & Expansion
If price sweeps into the 3,338 – 3,346 support area or even the buy zone 3,277 – 3,280, watch for bullish rejection signals.
• Entry: 3,338 – 3,346 (aggressive) or 3,277 – 3,280 (deep sweep)
• SL: 3,270
• TP1: 3,374 – 3,405
• TP2: 3,438 (Strong OB)
• ✅ Buy Idea – Breakout & Imbalance Fill
If price sustains above 3,374, expect continuation into the 3,405 – 3,438 supply OB.
• Entry: On bullish breakout and retest of 3,374
• SL: 3,338
• TP1: 3,405
• TP2: 3,438
• ✅ Sell Idea – Supply Zone Reaction
If price rallies into the 3,405 – 3,438 OB and fails to break convincingly, shorts become attractive.
• Entry: 3,405 – 3,435
• SL: 3,438
• TP1: 3,374
• TP2: 3,338
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🔑 Strategy Note:
Gold is currently building energy for a major move. The cleanest setups remain:
• ✅ Buying liquidity sweeps at key demand (3,338 or 3,277)
• ✅ Fading rallies into the strong OB at 3,405 – 3,438
Price is likely to sweep liquidity on one side before trending. Combine CHoCH + BOS confirmations with imbalance fills for maximum precision.
⚡ Tip: Smart money tends to drive price into OB + imbalance zones before major expansion. Patience around liquidity pools leads to higher-probability setups.