GOLD bounces back, hopes of policy reversalOANDA:XAUUSD reversed dramatically in the trading session on October 14, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent a clear dovish message, indicating that the Fed is ready to continue its rate-cutting cycle despite political uncertainty and the US government shutdown.
As of the time of writing, gold quickly recovered to $4,178 per ounce, up 0.89% on the day. The main driver came from expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 0.25% in October, a signal that Powell reinforced in his speech at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting.
Powell said the outlook for jobs and inflation “has not changed materially” since the September meeting, when the Fed began easing. But he stressed that risks to the labor market are rising, hiring has slowed, and unemployment could soon rise again after a long period of deep decline. “We are at a point where further deterioration in the labor market could start to show up in the unemployment rate,” Powell said, hinting at the possibility that the Fed may have to act more quickly to protect the expansion.
The announcement is seen as a turning point in policy direction, especially after Powell admitted that the Fed is considering ending the process of shrinking its balance sheet, a factor that has tightened global liquidity over the past year. Many organizations such as TD Securities believe that the Fed could announce the end of this program as early as the October meeting, paving the way for a clearly easing monetary environment from November.
The reaction in financial markets was immediate: the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell to 4.03%, the DXY index fell 0.25% to 99.00, showing that the Dollar is under new selling pressure. At the same time, safe-haven flows returned to the gold market, reinforcing the rapid recovery of this precious metal.
Markets saw Powell’s message as not only reassuring after a period of intense volatility, but also as opening up the possibility that the Fed is preparing for a prolonged easing cycle.
Broadly, the Fed is shifting its focus from containing inflation to protecting growth and jobs, a strategic shift. With global growth slowing, geopolitical risks spreading, and US-China trade tensions rising, Powell appears to prioritize maintaining liquidity and financial stability over further tightening.
Gold prices have risen more than 57% year-to-date, supported by safe-haven demand, strong central bank buying, and large inflows into gold ETFs. Institutions such as Bank of America and Société Générale are now raising their gold price forecasts to $5,000/ounce by 2026, in a scenario where the Fed ends its tightening cycle and the dollar enters a period of structural weakness.
If the Fed confirms its dovish stance at its October meeting, investors expect this could be a turning point in global monetary policy, with gold continuing to serve as a “confident gauge” of Powell’s management ability and the resilience of the US financial system.
Technical outlook analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Trend Overview
• Main Trend: Strongly bullish, price remains in an ascending channel, a series of long-bodied candles shows that buyers are in control.
• Technical Momentum: RSI in overbought zone (>75), momentum is still there but signals a risk of a short-term correction.
Important levels on the chart
• Near resistance: $4,213 (Fib 0.618). Next extension zone $4,286 – $4,378.
• Near support: $4,100 (psychological level), followed by $4,060 and $4,000 (strong support/low MA).
Short-term scenario & warnings
• Preferred scenario (trend-follow): maintain medium-term bullish view if price holds above 4,000–4,060.
• Correction warning: due to overbought RSI, a pullback of $50–$120 may occur to “digest” the momentum before continuing the trend. Macro news (Powell, employment data, geopolitical news) may trigger strong volatility.
Risk Management
• Smaller order sizes than usual due to high volatility.
• Don't chase prices past strong resistance; prioritize buying on signs of a successful retest.
The uptrend is still intact; a reasonable strategy is to buy with the trend on corrections or buy breakout confirmations. However, overbought RSI and macro/geopolitical news risks could cause significant pullbacks, so prioritize risk management and tight SL.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4242 - 4240⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4246
→Take Profit 1 4234
↨
→Take Profit 2 4228
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4145 - 4147⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4141
→Take Profit 1 4153
↨
→Take Profit 2 4159
Trade ideas
XAUUSD Update GOLD price Rejected at 4380, Bearish ?After rejected at 4380 price, Gold's price have a big posibility will have a correction more further.
We will follow the price as it would be make a lower low on next movement.
Bearish seasson will come ? We'll see
Another sign that we must give attention on it :
- The Biggest Red daily candle ( almost 2000 pips )
- Candle momentum
- Double top at 4380
- long wick on weekly candle
Have a blessing week ahead !
Time is over. XAUUSDThey’ll tell you gold is going to $5,000 or $10,000, but the reality this week is different. The market was dominated by downward pressure on Friday, signaling that this bearish momentum could continue into next week. We may see a short retracement on Monday or Tuesday, followed by a potential drop toward $4,000.
This could be an opportunity to rotate capital from gold into cryptocurrencies, potentially creating some psychological pressure on the metals sector.
The “banana rally” has hit gold: nine consecutive weeks of gains historically precede corrections of 10–30% in the following weeks.
XAUUSD extennded Setup [already up 390 pips]XAUUSD holding the Rangebound from 4230-4270. As we mentioned in our morning Setup we took buy from 4225 and 390 pips floating in profits.
What are my conditions For Today's NY session?
Currently if we look for another buy trade we have to wait for closing of m30-H1 candle above 4270 and on retest we can took buy .
Targets: 4305 - 4328-4345.
Additional Tip:
Keep in mind H4 closed below 4230 then stay away from Buy
Gold: Oscillated - Plummeted - ReboundedFrom an intraday trend perspective, gold surged to near 4379 – 4380 in the early hours of the morning , the morning session saw gold oscillate between 4350 and 4370. It then experienced a sharp drop, falling to around 4280 at one point, before rebounding again.
Overall, after hitting a new all-time high, gold traded in a high-level range during the day due to technical correction needs and complex market sentiment.
For the short term, focus should be on the support zone around 4280 – 4300. If it breaks below 4280, further downside may follow. On the upside, the key resistance level to watch is 4380; a strong break above this level is expected to push gold to 4395 – 4410 during the day.
Buy 4320 - 4330
TP 4350 - 4360 - 4370
SL 4300
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
XAUUSD – Why I’m Preparing for a Long SetupI’m not randomly calling buys here — the chart is clearly building the case for another bullish leg. Let me walk you through the logic behind the anticipation:
🔹 1. Overall Trend Structure Is Still Bullish
Price has been consistently printing:
Higher Highs (HH)
Higher Lows (HL)
Respecting the ascending trendline cleanly
Until there’s a confirmed break of structure to the downside, my bias remains bullish.
🔹 2. Liquidity Sweep Above the Highs
We’ve just seen a session-based liquidity sweep above the recent highs:
No bearish follow-through
Price is reacting but not reversing aggressively
That sweep gives the algorithm liquidity to push higher once price rebalances.
🔹 3. Clean Pullback Zones Are Lined Up
I’m not chasing price — I’m waiting for price to retrace deeper into:
H1 Imbalance
OTE Discount Zone
Demand / Reaccumulation Block
Previous structure support
The red zone you marked aligns with:
61–79% retracement
Structural demand
Stop raid liquidity below
That’s the kind of area smart money loves to load longs.
🔹 4. Still Untapped Buy-Side Liquidity Above
Look at what rests above:
Previous daily high (PDH)
Session highs not fully cleared
External liquidity pools waiting to be targeted
The bullish delivery objective hasn’t been satisfied.
🔹 5. No Bearish Displacement or BOS
Even after the sweep:
No strong bearish displacement
No market structure break
Just corrective price action
Until we see a clean shift down, the pullback is treated as accumulation.
🔹 6. Projected Delivery Model
Your blue projection shows the exact logic:
Liquidity grab ✅
Retracement into demand ✅
Reaction + continuation ✅
Final target = buy-side liquidity above ✅
This is textbook smart money buildup.
✅ Summary for Followers
“The overall structure is still bullish, price has swept liquidity without breaking structure, and I’m waiting for a retracement into the H1 OTE/demand zone. Once price dips into that zone, I’ll be looking to take a long toward the external buy-side liquidity around and above PDH.”
WE ARE SELLING If you couldn't enter around 3am then you can still sell around 4340-45 and target tp at 4250 if you don't want stress and if it's able to close below 4190 then you targets another sell at 4195-4200 and hold, if you like to hold from 4340-4345 too, you can hold till it moves below 4190 then you add another position but it could fail to move below 4250 or any of the rectangular block below so manage it though it looks like it's going to sell more for some days but still it best to manage it by locking profits if it reaches 4250 or closing it.
GOLD XAUUSD WATCH KEY SUPPLY ROOF @ 4258-4260
WATCH 4288-4290-4300 ZONE WITH GOOD risk management.
the trade reason.
the fib level resistance says sell at 4285-4288-4290 and i extend it to whole number 4300
the rsi divergent has two rejection in a zone tested multiple times ,creating a high rejection probability.
the ascending trendline was a broken demand floor which turns it into supply roof now and above price and creating a double confluence with the fib level
the ema+sma guiding price indicating bulls after break of London high 4242-4240 suggesting liquidity + newyork/londeon session volatility
NOTE MANAGE YOUR RISK,ANAY ANALYSIS CAN FAIL BECAUSE TRADING IS 100% PROBABILTY.
I WISH YOU GOODLUCK.
LIKE AND SHARE FOR MORE .
XAU murdered with fashion Pinpoint accuracy 📍 🔪
Gold smashing out major handle @ $4318!!!!
Secured the daily on close.
Pay attention to this handle….
She should be hunting $4245 and I believe this is a job for Uncle Ling the plug in the Asian session.
This is super crucial and will decide if we are on a continuous path to $4484.74 OR if we are ready to take back some grounds on $4140-$4011!!!!
Both handles above demand the same amount of respect and it should be decided upon the interactions with $4245.
If we make a high today, it will put us in a strong position for $4484.74 & will be looking into some long profiles to shoot off from $4245!
Stay Sharp, & enjoy your weekend!!!! 🫡
What to do after the plunge? Strategy has been updatedGold opened higher today, testing the peak at 4381 before coming under pressure and declining. During the session, it pulled back to a low of 4317, rebounded to around the 4345 level, and then started a cascading drop. Currently, it is consolidating with fluctuations near 4266.
We have only executed one successful trade during the Asian session so far today, and all traders who followed the operation have gained good profits. As this wave of gold's decline is relatively rapid, for prudence, we can first observe the market temporarily and will inform everyone when there is an opportunity for operation.
Trading Strategy
Keep an eye on the trend during the European session.
If gold fluctuates weakly in the European session, we will go short when it rebounds in the US session.
If gold rebounds strongly in the European session, we will go long on gold when it pulls back in the US session.
I will update trading signals in real time in the channel. You can follow it if needed.
Gold Ready to Launch from 4330-The Road to 4400 Begins!After touching around 4381, gold fell again and has now fallen below the 4340 area. Will gold break through multiple integer levels again and retest the support strength around 4180?
In fact, I believe that a slight pullback after gold hit its previous high near 4381 would be more favorable for a push towards 4400. Yesterday's rally from 4220 to 4381 showed no clear signs of a pullback. Therefore, after a single-day gain of $171, and considering the need for a technical pullback, I believe a short-term pullback in gold doesn't mean a return to 4180. Instead, it will stimulate market liquidity after a healthy short-term pullback, helping gold build upward momentum and potentially break through 4400.
Therefore, we shouldn't be afraid of gold's pullbacks, but rather focus on identifying entry points for long positions. From the current perspective, the W-shaped double bottom structural support below still plays a key supporting role, so if gold holds above 4330-4320 during the retracement process, gold still has the potential to set new highs again!
Therefore, for short-term trading, it is obvious that during the gold pullback period, you can appropriately consider going long on gold with the 4330-4320 area as support!
GOLD WEEKLY CHART MID/LONG TERM ROUTE MAPWeekly Chart Update – Follow Up
3732 & 3806 Objectives Achieved, 3910 Gap Opens
Hey Everyone,
Last week’s structure played out precisely as projected, we achieved our 3806 target following a confirmed body close above 3732, validating the continuation leg within our Goldturn structures.
This week, we’ve seen a weekly candle body close above 3806, officially opening the 3910 gap zone. The bullish structure remains well defined, supported by four consecutive weeks of EMA5 detachment, which confirms sustained upside momentum. However, this extended separation also signals potential for sharp corrective phases, requiring careful risk management and dynamic positioning.
Current Outlook
🔹 3732 Breakout & 3806 Objective Completed
Last week’s projected upside target was met precisely following a strong candle close confirmation.
🔹 3910 Gap Now Active
With the weekly close above 3806, the next structural resistance opens toward the 3910 zone.
🔹 EMA5 Detachment (4 Weeks Running)
Persistent detachment supports ongoing bullish momentum, but traders should remain alert for any mean reversion pullbacks or exhaustion on lower timeframes.
🔹 Support Structure
Immediate support now rests at 3806, followed by 3732 as a pivotal retest zone. Deeper support sits at 3659, which aligns with the ascending channel top confluence a critical structural level if broader correction unfolds.
Updated Key Levels
📉 Supports: 3806 (immediate), 3732 (secondary), 3659 (pivotal channel confluence)
📈 Resistance / Next Upside Objective: 3910–4015 zone
Plan & Risk Outlook
The bullish framework remains intact, but with EMA5 detachment now stretched, traders should anticipate volatility spikes or short term corrective dips. A controlled pullback into the lower Goldturns would be considered technically healthy and may offer fresh accumulation opportunities in line with the broader structure.
We’ll continue to monitor for confirmation closes and EMA5 realignments during the week to gauge whether momentum extends or correction begins.
Trade safe, stay disciplined, and manage exposure around volatility.
Mr. Gold
GoldViewFX
XAU/USD: Bullish Move After Liquidity GrabIt appears that a significant bearish trap may have formed following a test of a strong horizontal support on an intraday chart.
Furthermore, a strong bullish confirmation, a bullish change of character, is evident on the hourly chart.
I anticipate that the price may potentially increase to the 4200 level.
Attractive Bullish Gold SetupHey, it’s Erik!
XAUUSD is currently in a fascinating phase. After a strong pullback from the upper boundary of the ascending channel, gold is now heading toward the lower boundary. This region aligns with a key support zone, and a potential reaction here could propel the price back upward.
If buyers manage to defend this level, the potential for a rise to $4,380 is significant. This level coincides with the middle of the channel and previous resistance, making it a logical short-term target in this bullish market structure.
However, there’s an important caveat. If the market fails to hold this support, the bullish scenario could lose its validity, and we might see a continuation of the downward trend. That’s why it’s crucial to wait for clear confirmation before entering. A rejection wick, increased buying volume, or a bullish engulfing pattern are all key technical signals to watch for the right entry point.
So, what do you think? Ready to seize this opportunity, or do you see other risks? Share your thoughts with us!
XAUUSD 4D Market Outlook
- Gold extended its record-breaking rally on Thursday, hitting an all-time high of $4,319 per ounce, as investors rushed to safety amid escalating U.S.–China tensions, a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- Gold did 60% year-to-date gain; its strongest annual performance in decades. The surge is being driven by robust central bank purchases, weakening Treasury yields, and broad-based risk aversion.
- Renewed trade friction between the U.S. and China intensified after Washington condemned Beijing’s expanded rare earth export controls, sparking fears of global supply disruptions. At the same time, the U.S. government shutdown, now in its third week, continues to weigh on investor sentiment.
- The Treasury estimates the shutdown is costing $15 billion per week, fueling anxiety over economic stability and fiscal credibility conditions that historically favor gold.
Fed Rate Cut Bets Deepen as Yields Slide
- Markets are now pricing in a 98% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut in October, with a second move expected in December. The Federal Reserve faces additional uncertainty due to a data blackout caused by the shutdown, while the latest Philadelphia Fed survey plunged 36 points to -12.8, reinforcing the dovish outlook.
Technical Outlook:
- Analysts warn that while short-term corrections are possible, the bullish structure remains intact. Unless prices close decisively below recent swing lows, the path of least resistance remains higher.