Trade ideas
Potential long opportunity for XAUUSD
XAUUSD is approaching a key demand zone on the 15M timeframe. The price is trading within a clear descending channel, and we are looking for a potential reversal near the confluence of the channel support and the identified LOW RISK / BUY ZONE (approx. 4121- 4147).
🎯 Key Levels:
- Buy Zone: 4147 - 4120
- Target: Channel midline & upper bounds
- Stop Loss: A clear break below 4095.
#XAUUSD #GOLD #Trading #Forex #BuyZone #TechnicalAnalysis
Gold at Decision Point – Break or Correction?On the 15-minute gold chart, price is testing the key resistance around $4,381. This level has acted as a ceiling several times, suggesting strong selling pressure. The 50-period SMA at $4,234 still supports the broader uptrend, but momentum appears to be weakening near resistance.
In the short term, a close below $4,340 could trigger a pullback toward $4,280 and possibly $4,240. A reasonable stop loss for this scenario is above $4,385.
In the longer-term view (over the next few sessions), if gold breaks and sustains above $4,381, we could see an upside move toward $4,400 and $4,460. The protective stop for this bullish setup should be below $4,275.
Overall, gold is at a decision point — a breakout could signal continuation of the bullish wave, while rejection from resistance may lead to a short-term correction.
XAUUSD: $4,400 Target Next! Gold Bull Run ContinuesKey Observations:
Massive Uptrend: The chart clearly displays a strong, multi-day uptrend, marked by a series of high-momentum green (bullish) candlesticks.
Recent Price Action: Price has recently surged, followed by a minor retracement (the most recent red candle), but remains near the top of the move. This indicates the primary momentum is still firmly to the upside.
Key Support/Demand Zones:Immediate Demand (Yellow Box): A small yellow box is marked around the $\$4,250$ area. This represents a very recent, short-term support or 'flip' zone where price broke out and could potentially retest before moving higher.Deeper Demand (Blue Box): A larger blue box (around $\$4,130$ to $\$4,190$) represents a more significant, underlying demand zone.
Projected Price Action: The hand-drawn path suggests a direct continuation with potentially only a minor dip:
The path shows a small pullback toward the $\$4,300$ area (not explicitly marked by a zone) or a brief sideways move.
The black arrow points to an anticipated strong push up to the final target, resuming the dominant uptrend without necessarily hitting the marked yellow or blue zones.
Target: A dotted blue line at $\$4,400.69$ is the clear final target for this trade setup.
XAUUSD 17/10/2025XAUUSD has reached the target of 4275 as analyzed in the previous article. Although the trend is still up, now I expect XAUUSD to fall to 4200, further to 4145 before re-establishing an increase, which would be better. But if XAUUSD continues to increase, the next target is 4345 - 4375.
I am analyzing based on the VolaX method
Market Update for New York SessionThe London session delivered a significant push up after indicating the direction for the day.
Let's see if it will break Ath again or switch down to distribute the move down finally.
Which will be a potential 1:7 move down.
But as usual guys 1:3 - 1:4 we are good.
Let's see who it plays out.
@TeamWePrint
Gold (XAUUSD) Short-Term Bearish Setup – 15-Min Chart AnalysisThis 15-minute chart of XAUUSD shows a bearish setup based on Smart Money Concepts and order block theory. After a clear bullish structure break (BOS), price entered a premium zone (highlighted in purple) and formed a weak high, indicating potential for a reversal. The projection suggests a short-term bullish retracement into the supply zone before a strong downward move. Target zones are marked within the deep demand area (blue boxes) below 4,200, with a possible final target near 4,180. This analysis anticipates a bearish shift in momentum during the New York session, aligned with liquidity grabs and order block rejection.
XAUUSD NEXT POSSIBLE MOVE Gold is currently trading near a strong demand zone, an area where buyers have previously shown clear dominance. After a corrective move, price action is now showing signs of stabilization and accumulation, suggesting that a bullish reversal could be forming.
If the market continues to respect this zone and prints a bullish candle formation (such as a higher low, bullish engulfing, or rejection wick), it would confirm that buyers are regaining control.
Momentum indicators also show signs of strength building on the buy side, indicating that selling pressure is fading and the market may be preparing for an upside move.
As long as Gold maintains its structure above the support zone, the bias remains bullish. Traders should wait for a clear confirmation candle or structure break before entering to ensure alignment with market momentum.
XAUMO — GOLD (XAUUSD) | Institutional Daily 📘 EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY — NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
All times Africa/Cairo (+03:00)
🟡 YALLA XAUMO — GOLD (XAUUSD) | Institutional Daily — COMPREHENSIVE (Trader Training Edition)
Version: Protocol 2025 (Approved) | Report time: Thu, 16 Oct 2025 — 06:40
Spot ref: 4,235.38 (+0.68%) | GC1: 4,253.3 | GC2: 4,284.5 → Term spread +0.73% (Contango)
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
1) SYNOPSIS — What’s happening today?
• Gold trades above the 4.22x–4.24x band with a tactical bullish tilt.
• DXY 98.528 (−0.14%), VIX 20.63 (−0.82%) — softer USD and calmer vol favor disciplined buy-the-dip, not chasing highs.
• Pivot for the day: 4,229–4,233 and 4,241.9.
📈 EDU Notes: Wait for two consecutive 15-min closes above 4,241.9 to confirm control. On dips, study longs near 4,229–4,233 (POC/VWAP).
📊 Takeaway → Bullish while above 4,229; loss of 4,219 weakens the setup.
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2) MEGABAR by timeframe (15m / 1h / 4h / Daily)
• 15m: Step-up advance; Uploading 4,229–4,233 & 4,206–4,215; Offloading 4,236–4,249; RVOL ≈ 1.0
• 1h: Gradual loading above 4,229 with KS support; stage targets 4,249/4,253
• 4h: Conditional up-trend above 4.22x; clean break below 4,206 forces reassessment
• Daily: Gentle positive channel
📈 EDU: When loading % fades on 15m/1h, expect a VWAP pullback then a new try.
📊 Takeaway → Up-bias persists while VWAP slopes up and price holds >4,229.
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3) Upcoming Macro (Cairo time)
• 15:30 — US Initial Jobless Claims (weekly, high impact). :contentReference {index=0}
• 15:30 — US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (high impact). :contentReference {index=1}
• 15:30 — US Producer Price Index (Sep) (high impact). :contentReference {index=2}
• 16:15 — US Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (medium). :contentReference {index=3}
• 17:00 — US NAHB Housing Market Index (medium). :contentReference {index=4}
⚠️ Notes: Yesterday’s Fed Beige Book said activity “little changed” with rising signs of strain; Governor Stephen Miran flagged trade-tension risks and argued for faster cuts — both heighten gold’s sensitivity to today’s prints. :contentReference {index=5}
📊 Takeaway → Key time node at 15:30 (claims + Philly + PPI cluster).
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
4) Cross-Asset read
• EURUSD 1.1663 (+0.14%) • USDJPY 150.86 (−0.11%) • USDCNH 7.1290 (+0.03%)
• SPX 6,671.07 (+0.40%) • NASDAQ 24,752.3 (−0.20%) • VIX 20.63 (−0.82%)
📈 Soft USD + calmer vol → prefer disciplined dip-buys, avoid chasing highs.
📊 Takeaway → Macro tone supports “pullback then resume”.
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
5) GC Futures Structure
• GC1 4,253.3 • GC2 4,284.5 → Contango +0.73%
📈 Contango = stable upward curve; favors orderly pullbacks over disorderly squeezes.
📊 Takeaway → Futures curve aligned with spot; backdrop constructive.
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
6) Volume Footprint
• Buy zones: 4,229–4,233 (value/POC) and 4,206–4,215 (Uploading).
• Sell zones: 4,236–4,249 (staged Offloading) with intraday high print 4,241.99.
📈 Positive delta inside 4,229–4,233 = value reload.
📊 Takeaway → Demand 4,229–4,233 / Supply 4,236–4,249.
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
7) Value Map (VAL / POC / VAH / VWAP)
VAL ~4,206–4.21x • POC ~4,229–4,233 • VAH ~4,241–4,249 • VWAP ~4.23x
📈 Above POC/VWAP = buyers in control; below = caution until delta flips.
📊 Takeaway → Value rising gradually, centered near 4.23x.
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
8) Fibonacci (current leg)
Working leg: 4,206 → 4,241.99
38.2% ≈ 4,229 • 50% ≈ 4,224 • 61.8% ≈ 4,219 • 100% = 4,241.99
📈 “Golden zone” 4,219–4,229; holding with positive delta unlocks 4,243/4,249.
📊 Takeaway → Watch 4,229 as decision axis.
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
9) Ichimoku quick regime
• Daily: mild positive above cloud elements
• 4h: conditional up above 4.22x
• 1h: TK up; KS supportive
• 15m: TK up; Chikou nearly free; aligned with VWAP
📊 Takeaway → Multi-TF alignment modestly bullish; 15m for execution.
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
10) Schabacker (classical context)
• Accumulation band above 4.22x with stepping highs near 4,241.9.
• No confirmed top unless 4,241.9 fails and 4,229 closes lost.
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
11) Liquidity & Gates
• Gates: 4,229 → 4,241.9 → 4,249 → 4,253 → 4,265
• Fast lanes: 4,236–4,241.9 and 4,249–4,253
📊 Takeaway → 4,241.9 = expansion trigger; 4,229 = daily decision line.
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
12) XAUMO Trend Board (Confidence %)
15m: 66% • 1h: 64% • 4h: 62% • Daily: 60% → Composite ≈ 64%
📈 Confidence lifts with RVOL ≥ 1.0 and closes > 4,241.9.
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
13) Session Map
• Asia: organized loading from value.
• London: Buy-the-Dip above 4,229 targeting 4,243/4,249/4,253.
• New York (later): continuation only if highs hold above 4,253.
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
14) MTF Retracement Lab (EDU)
Anchors: VWAP ~4.23x • POC 4,229–4,233 • VAL 4,206–4.21x • VAH 4,241–4,249
A) Pullback Long
• Entry: 4,229–4,233 | SL: 4,219 | TP: 4,243 → 4,249 → 4,253
• Why: POC/VWAP confluence + positive delta + steady contango.
B) VWAP Touch Scalps
• Entry: 4,231–4,233 | SL: 4,225 | TP: 4,241 → 4,246
• Why: touch-retrieve-impulse pattern with short-term momentum.
C) Educational Counter-fade from supply
• Entry: 4,246–4,249 | SL: 4,258 | TP: 4,241 → 4,233 → 4,229
• Why: failed breakout inside staged offloading.
D) Break & Hold Continuation
• Condition: hold > 4,253 | SL: 4,238 | TP: 4,265 → 4,273
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
15) Execution & Discipline (EDU)
✅ Checklist: two 15m closes above gate • RVOL present • positive delta • no high-impact data imminent • pre-defined SL.
⚖️ Risk: ≤1.0–1.5%/trade • Max 3 trades/session • No chasing highs without a pullback.
📊 Takeaway → Protect capital; focus on structured pullbacks.
──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
🏁 Final Take
As long as price holds >4,229, the bullish path targets 4,243 → 4,249 → 4,253.
A 15m close <4,219 invalidates and reopens 4,206.
XAUUSD 1H Analysis(16th October 2025) ASIA/LONDON
BUY/SELL SCENARIOS:
BUYS:
1) Body candle close above the Previous Day High at the 4218.23level.
2) Retest the Previous Day's High at the 4218.23 level.
3) Create a 5/15m Bullish Engulfing Candle to capitalise on BUYS towards the 4250.00 level.
SELLS:
1) Body candle close below the 4199.67 level.
2) Retest the 1h bearish CHOCH at the 4199.67 level.
3) Create a 3/5m Bearish Engulfing Candle to capitalize on SELLS toward the 4164.80 level
Trade Smart, Trade according to plan. Cheers!
Given Powell’s mildly dovish tone 4,200 Handle is my next targetPowell acknowledged a firmer economic footing than earlier, but explicitly flagged weakness in the labour market (low hiring, low firing) as a concern. The fact that Powell is leaning more towards softening employment policies than inflation gives the market room to lean into gold’s narrative.
Bullish approach: Buy on dips toward your liquidity base @4,145–4,150 after confirmation (bullish wick, reversal candle)
Stop-Loss: Below 4,135 (below the extreme discount block
Target 1: 4,200 zone
Target 2: 4,230–4,250 if DXY weakens further post-Fed
Summary
Powell’s speech has given the bulls oxygen; the gold structure confirms it.
As long as 4,140 holds, the path of least resistance is north.
First TP is nearly in sight — the market may even overshoot it on volatility.
Gold looks like it wants to break the upper resistance again. Gold's momentum don't stop. the move is slow and sort of choppy if you look a the low time frame. Can history repeat itself and poke through the line one more time? Or do liquidity dry up right before it reach and start dumping?
I am bullish overall, at least until we reach the upper trend like. We might break above that line and retest and break out again. That would be my dream scenario, but as a future trader, I am only trying to capture that small momentum from point A to point B. Which is slightly above the upper line in my case.
I think gold in spot will soon hit the 4200 psych level or slightly above it before we see a slow down.
As always trade, only trade with money you can afford to lose, and set a stop loss, even if its below where it might wick down for liquidity.
Gold Eyes New All-Time High
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🟡 Chart Analysis: Gold (XAU/USD) — Daily Timeframe
Overview:
This chart presents a bullish continuation setup for Gold (XAU/USD) on the daily timeframe. The market has recently shown strong upward momentum, forming several large bullish candles after a period of consolidation.
Key Observations:
Recent Momentum:
A strong bullish rally has pushed the price upward, indicating renewed buyer interest and institutional activity.
Retracement Zone:
The highlighted green area represents a potential retracement or re-entry zone. Price is expected to pull back into this area before resuming its upward trajectory.
Stop Loss Placement:
The red zone beneath the retracement area marks the stop-loss level around $4,026, strategically placed below recent swing lows for risk management.
Target Level:
The target zone is aligned with the All-Time High (ATH) around $4,200, which serves as a key psychological and technical resistance level.
Projection Path:
The chart’s white and black arrows illustrate an expected bullish impulse–retracement–continuation pattern, suggesting the price may briefly correct before surging to new highs.
Gold Pullback TimeUS-China trade tensions, the US government shutdown, and global uncertainty have increased demand for safe havens, driving the prices of Bitcoin, silver, and gold upwards.
Looking at the candlestick pattern, the gold price encountered significant resistance, resulting in a bearish engulfing. Let's draw a Fibonacci retracement and see which direction the price continues to resist. The price continues to head towards the golden area, which is also the historical BoS area. We await buy confirmation in this area.
Wall Street Weekly Outlook - Week 42 2025Every week I release a Wall Street Weekly Outlook that highlights the key themes, market drivers, and risks that professional traders are watching.
This week promises to be particularly volatile.
With tensions escalating in the U.S.–China trade conflict, markets already began to show the first signs of risk-off sentiment late Friday. In this video, I’ll break down what this shift means for global markets and how investors can navigate the current environment.
+Extra lesson:
Any questions? Drop a comment or reach out directly.
-Meikel
Gold Reached Its Final Peak? A 50-Year Cycle May End Here🟡 Gold Macro Structure — The End of a 50-Year Bullish Epoch
Symbol: XAU/USD (OANDA Data)
Timeframe: 1M (Monthly Candles)
Published by: Ping Tech Academy
🕰️ The Story of Gold — Between Faith, Fear, and Cycles
Gold has never been just a commodity — it is the mirror of human belief in value.
When trust in fiat weakens, gold rises; when confidence returns, it retreats.
Since the dollar was detached from gold in December 1971, every cycle has reflected the rhythm of fear and faith across the global economy.
Now, after more than half a century of expansion, gold stands at what appears to be the final chapter of its generational bull cycle.
🔹 Historical Context (1971–2009)
From December 1st, 1971, gold traded within a long-term ascending channel,
with its lower boundary near $43.50 and its upper boundary reaching around $1,195.40.
That upper structure was broken and retested on November 2nd, 2009,
marking the beginning of a new macro bullish channel that defined the modern era of gold movement.
🔹 The Second Channel (2005–2024)
The base of the current macro structure was established on July 1st, 2005, at $417.90,
while its top expanded to around $2,663.50, reached on September 2nd, 2024.
This high was broken and retested — a textbook continuation signal —
leading gold to its recent peak near $4,165 (October 2025).
⚠️ Critical Resistance Zone — Structural Completion
Based on price symmetry and long-term channel geometry,
gold has reached its final structural target of the 50-year ascending cycle:
📍 $4,166.66 (OANDA XAU/USD)
Allowing for a technical deviation, the potential reversal range stands between:
📉 $4,166.66 – $4,294.43
This area represents a major exhaustion zone,
likely to act as the macro top of the cycle before a multi-year correction begins.
🧭 Long-Term Downside Targets (Macro Correction Path)
If the market confirms rejection within the 4.16–4.29k range,
the following structural targets may unfold sequentially:
$3,940
$3,730
$3,415
$3,072
$2,791 → Key Level
$2,535 → Critical Foundation Zone
🔹 This region is viewed as the potential final structural base for gold —
a level where a new long-term accumulation phase could begin.
However, breaking below $2,535 would indicate the start of a deep macro revaluation,
potentially driving gold to unexpectedly low levels, but such a move would likely
require a period of global economic stability and geopolitical peace —
a rare alignment that historically marks the end of systemic fear cycles.
$2,438
$2,227
$2,089 → Final macro target if bearish continuation persists
🧠 Market Psychology & Cyclic Behavior
Each gold supercycle follows a familiar psychological rhythm:
Accumulation (Smart Money Phase):
Institutions accumulate quietly when sentiment is exhausted and prices are undervalued.
Expansion (Public Awareness):
Momentum builds; narratives like inflation, rate cuts, or war become surface-level catalysts.
Euphoria (Public Participation):
Retail investors flood in at new highs, while institutions distribute positions into strength.
Distribution → Correction:
Price weakens, volatility expands, optimism fades — the new cycle begins where fear returns.
Gold currently displays late-euphoria characteristics,
suggesting the distribution phase of the macro cycle is well underway.
🧩 Conclusion
Gold appears to be completing a 50-year structural expansion that began in 1971 —
a cycle that reshaped global perceptions of value.
While minor overshoots beyond $4,294 remain possible,
the risk-to-reward profile now favors defensive or profit-taking strategies.
A multi-year corrective phase is expected before a new generational accumulation begins.
⚖️ Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for educational and informational purposes only
and does not constitute financial or investment advice.
All price levels and projections are based on historical modeling and macro-technical analysis.
Financial markets involve risk — past performance does not guarantee future results.
Always conduct independent analysis or consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
📘 Ping Tech Academy
“Trade Smart. Trade Fearless.”
© 2025 – All Rights Reserved.
Who Is Really Controlling the Market?👋Hello everyone, it’s great to see you again in today’s conversation.
Today, we’ll dive into a very interesting topic: “❓Who is really controlling this market? Are you just a juicy prey, a pawn following the path laid out by the big institutions?”
To answer this question, we need to look deeper. The market in general, and XAUUSD specifically, is like an immense ocean with many currents flowing in different directions.
At the top of the chain, we see that trends are most influenced by economic factors, global political events, wars, and so on. Can you imagine how much influence central banks and large investment funds have? Their decisions can create massive waves, shaking the entire global financial market. You know why we only trade until Friday, right? Because most of these major institutions are closed on Saturdays and Sundays. For example, when the Fed decides to hike interest rates, or when big funds buy millions of ounces of gold, immediately, gold prices will either surge or plummet.
(To gain a better understanding of how it works, take a look at my previous post )
However, big institutions cannot always control the market as they wish. Surely, you've seen sudden reversals or significant price fluctuations within just one day. And this is where the role of you and other traders comes into play.
Let’s think about it. In today’s modern financial market, where information spreads at the speed of light, you – a retail trader – can influence significant price movements if you know how to seize the right moment and turn it into your profit.
Think about the times when you’ve seen gold prices spike due to certain news, like a Fed decision or a political crisis. That wasn’t the result of a big institution, but rather the market’s response. And when you and thousands of other traders act in the same direction, you’re creating waves – even if they’re small – but they are enough to shift the market's flow in the short term. The market is a psychological reaction, where emotions, expectations, and fear drive the actions of all participants.
Yet, we cannot deny that the influence of central banks and global market fluctuations is immense and overwhelming. At times, our actions may just be a reaction to FOMO , inadvertently turning ourselves into prey without realizing it. The only way out is to equip yourself with the knowledge and experience necessary to navigate the market. If not, from the moment you step into trading, you’re essentially a pawn being controlled.
The market is a vast ocean. Central banks and large investment funds are like islands within it, but each one of us is an essential part of that ocean. Even if you’re just a grain of salt, many grains of salt together make the ocean salty. We are all connected, no matter where we are or what platform we use. TradingView, for example, is one place where we can all link up.
Trust in your own value, take action, learn, and share your insights so that both the trading community and TradingView itself can continue to grow.
I wish you happy trading. Don’t forget to support me by liking this post!🚀
XAUUSDGold shows a bearish setup forming under a descending trendline. Price has approached a supply zone near 4,289 USD, aligning with trendline resistance, suggesting potential rejection. The chart indicates a short (sell) position targeting the demand zone around 4,166 USD, with a stop loss placed above the resistance near 4,318 USD. The analysis implies a possible lower high formation and continuation of the downtrend toward previous support levels.
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XAU/USD — London Session Recap This morning’s London session delivered a clean bullish reversal setup after consecutive CHoCH confirmations at the demand zone.
Price respected structure, tapped the Fair Value Gap (FVG) for mitigation, and pushed strongly toward the 4,320 zone, completing the target projection (TP).
Now, we wait for New York session to confirm whether momentum extends above 4,340 or retraces to fill remaining inefficiencies around 4,250–4,260.
📍 Key Notes:
• Structure shift confirmed (multiple CHoCH)
• Demand + FVG confluence ✅
• TP reached, partials secured
• Watching NY liquidity grab or continuation leg
#XAUUSD #GOLD #SmartMoneyConcepts #SilentScalpers #FlowAnalysis