XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold had a strong pullback on Friday following last weekโs sharp rally and is now consolidating between 4,279 and 4,227. The retracement has allowed the market to cool off after consecutive all-time highs, while buyers are still defending the First Reaction Zone (4,227โ4,192).
Price remains above the MA200, maintaining the broader bullish structure, but continues to struggle reclaiming the MA50, which now acts as short-term resistance. A break above 4,279 could re-ignite bullish momentum toward 4,321 and 4,362, while a failure to hold 4,227 may invite deeper correction toward 4,151โ4,117.
๐ Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
4279
4321
4362
4406
Support:
4227
4192
4151
4117
๐ Fundamental focus:
This weekโs calendar features key U.S. data releases, including Flash PMIs, Durable Goods Orders, and Consumer Sentiment, though many reports risk delay due to the ongoing government shutdown. The blackout continues to cloud market visibility and reinforce safe-haven demand for gold.
Trade ideas
Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy for next weekโ
Recently, gold has repeatedly shown sharp one-sided moves, with several swings exceeding $80 in both directions this week, forming typical V-shaped reversals. Fridayโs rapid decline reflected heavy short-term profit-taking at the highs, signaling that the market has entered a strong corrective consolidation phase.
โ
4-Hour Chart:
After peaking at 4379.52, gold pulled back sharply and is now trading below the Bollinger mid-band, stabilizing around 4230โ4250.
๐นMoving Averages: MA5 and MA10 have formed a bearish crossover, and MA20 has begun to turn down, showing short-term weakness; MA60 and MA120 remain upward-sloping, indicating that the medium- to long-term structure is still bullish.
๐นBollinger Bands: Upper band near 4364, middle at 4237, lower at 4111. Price is oscillating below the mid-band; failure to reclaim it could lead to a test of the 4110โ4150 zone.
Overall, gold is in a high-level correction phase dominated by short sellers. Unless it can hold above 4237, further testing of 4180โ4150 remains likely.
โ
1-Hour Chart:
After retreating from the 4379.52 high to a 4186.62 low, gold saw a weak rebound capped near 4240, forming a classic double-top around 4379. The short-term trend has turned bearish, and the 4280 region now acts as key resistance.
๐ด Resistance Levels: 4275โ4280 / 4300
๐ข Support Levels: 4180โ4160 / 4090
โ
Trading Strategy Reference:
๐ฐ If the price rebounds to 4275โ4280 and faces resistance, consider light short positions with targets at 4180โ4160, stop loss above 4300.
๐ฐ If the price dips to around 4175โ4180 and stabilizes, consider cautious long entries with targets at 4250โ4270, stop loss below 4160.
๐ Summary:
Goldโs short-term trend remains weak, representing a technical correction after a strong rally. As long as 4160โ4180 support holds, the medium-term bullish structure remains intact. Failure to break above 4280โ4300 will keep the market in a weak consolidation phase, with secondary support around 4110โ4090.
Potential long opportunity for XAUUSD
XAUUSD is approaching a key demand zone on the 15M timeframe. The price is trading within a clear descending channel, and we are looking for a potential reversal near the confluence of the channel support and the identified LOW RISK / BUY ZONE (approx. 4121- 4147).
๐ฏ Key Levels:
- Buy Zone: 4147 - 4120
- Target: Channel midline & upper bounds
- Stop Loss: A clear break below 4095.
#XAUUSD #GOLD #Trading #Forex #BuyZone #TechnicalAnalysis
Gold at Decision Point โ Break or Correction?On the 15-minute gold chart, price is testing the key resistance around $4,381. This level has acted as a ceiling several times, suggesting strong selling pressure. The 50-period SMA at $4,234 still supports the broader uptrend, but momentum appears to be weakening near resistance.
In the short term, a close below $4,340 could trigger a pullback toward $4,280 and possibly $4,240. A reasonable stop loss for this scenario is above $4,385.
In the longer-term view (over the next few sessions), if gold breaks and sustains above $4,381, we could see an upside move toward $4,400 and $4,460. The protective stop for this bullish setup should be below $4,275.
Overall, gold is at a decision point โ a breakout could signal continuation of the bullish wave, while rejection from resistance may lead to a short-term correction.
XAUUSD: $4,400 Target Next! Gold Bull Run ContinuesKey Observations:
Massive Uptrend: The chart clearly displays a strong, multi-day uptrend, marked by a series of high-momentum green (bullish) candlesticks.
Recent Price Action: Price has recently surged, followed by a minor retracement (the most recent red candle), but remains near the top of the move. This indicates the primary momentum is still firmly to the upside.
Key Support/Demand Zones:Immediate Demand (Yellow Box): A small yellow box is marked around the $\$4,250$ area. This represents a very recent, short-term support or 'flip' zone where price broke out and could potentially retest before moving higher.Deeper Demand (Blue Box): A larger blue box (around $\$4,130$ to $\$4,190$) represents a more significant, underlying demand zone.
Projected Price Action: The hand-drawn path suggests a direct continuation with potentially only a minor dip:
The path shows a small pullback toward the $\$4,300$ area (not explicitly marked by a zone) or a brief sideways move.
The black arrow points to an anticipated strong push up to the final target, resuming the dominant uptrend without necessarily hitting the marked yellow or blue zones.
Target: A dotted blue line at $\$4,400.69$ is the clear final target for this trade setup.
XAUUSD 17/10/2025XAUUSD has reached the target of 4275 as analyzed in the previous article. Although the trend is still up, now I expect XAUUSD to fall to 4200, further to 4145 before re-establishing an increase, which would be better. But if XAUUSD continues to increase, the next target is 4345 - 4375.
I am analyzing based on the VolaX method
Market Update for New York SessionThe London session delivered a significant push up after indicating the direction for the day.
Let's see if it will break Ath again or switch down to distribute the move down finally.
Which will be a potential 1:7 move down.
But as usual guys 1:3 - 1:4 we are good.
Let's see who it plays out.
@TeamWePrint
Gold (XAUUSD) Short-Term Bearish Setup โ 15-Min Chart AnalysisThis 15-minute chart of XAUUSD shows a bearish setup based on Smart Money Concepts and order block theory. After a clear bullish structure break (BOS), price entered a premium zone (highlighted in purple) and formed a weak high, indicating potential for a reversal. The projection suggests a short-term bullish retracement into the supply zone before a strong downward move. Target zones are marked within the deep demand area (blue boxes) below 4,200, with a possible final target near 4,180. This analysis anticipates a bearish shift in momentum during the New York session, aligned with liquidity grabs and order block rejection.
XAUUSD NEXT POSSIBLE MOVE Gold is currently trading near a strong demand zone, an area where buyers have previously shown clear dominance. After a corrective move, price action is now showing signs of stabilization and accumulation, suggesting that a bullish reversal could be forming.
If the market continues to respect this zone and prints a bullish candle formation (such as a higher low, bullish engulfing, or rejection wick), it would confirm that buyers are regaining control.
Momentum indicators also show signs of strength building on the buy side, indicating that selling pressure is fading and the market may be preparing for an upside move.
As long as Gold maintains its structure above the support zone, the bias remains bullish. Traders should wait for a clear confirmation candle or structure break before entering to ensure alignment with market momentum.
XAUMO โ GOLD (XAUUSD) | Institutional Daily ๐ EDUCATIONAL USE ONLY โ NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
All times Africa/Cairo (+03:00)
๐ก YALLA XAUMO โ GOLD (XAUUSD) | Institutional Daily โ COMPREHENSIVE (Trader Training Edition)
Version: Protocol 2025 (Approved) | Report time: Thu, 16 Oct 2025 โ 06:40
Spot ref: 4,235.38 (+0.68%) | GC1: 4,253.3 | GC2: 4,284.5 โ Term spread +0.73% (Contango)
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
1) SYNOPSIS โ Whatโs happening today?
โข Gold trades above the 4.22xโ4.24x band with a tactical bullish tilt.
โข DXY 98.528 (โ0.14%), VIX 20.63 (โ0.82%) โ softer USD and calmer vol favor disciplined buy-the-dip, not chasing highs.
โข Pivot for the day: 4,229โ4,233 and 4,241.9.
๐ EDU Notes: Wait for two consecutive 15-min closes above 4,241.9 to confirm control. On dips, study longs near 4,229โ4,233 (POC/VWAP).
๐ Takeaway โ Bullish while above 4,229; loss of 4,219 weakens the setup.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
2) MEGABAR by timeframe (15m / 1h / 4h / Daily)
โข 15m: Step-up advance; Uploading 4,229โ4,233 & 4,206โ4,215; Offloading 4,236โ4,249; RVOL โ 1.0
โข 1h: Gradual loading above 4,229 with KS support; stage targets 4,249/4,253
โข 4h: Conditional up-trend above 4.22x; clean break below 4,206 forces reassessment
โข Daily: Gentle positive channel
๐ EDU: When loading % fades on 15m/1h, expect a VWAP pullback then a new try.
๐ Takeaway โ Up-bias persists while VWAP slopes up and price holds >4,229.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
3) Upcoming Macro (Cairo time)
โข 15:30 โ US Initial Jobless Claims (weekly, high impact). :contentReference {index=0}
โข 15:30 โ US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (high impact). :contentReference {index=1}
โข 15:30 โ US Producer Price Index (Sep) (high impact). :contentReference {index=2}
โข 16:15 โ US Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (medium). :contentReference {index=3}
โข 17:00 โ US NAHB Housing Market Index (medium). :contentReference {index=4}
โ ๏ธ Notes: Yesterdayโs Fed Beige Book said activity โlittle changedโ with rising signs of strain; Governor Stephen Miran flagged trade-tension risks and argued for faster cuts โ both heighten goldโs sensitivity to todayโs prints. :contentReference {index=5}
๐ Takeaway โ Key time node at 15:30 (claims + Philly + PPI cluster).
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
4) Cross-Asset read
โข EURUSD 1.1663 (+0.14%) โข USDJPY 150.86 (โ0.11%) โข USDCNH 7.1290 (+0.03%)
โข SPX 6,671.07 (+0.40%) โข NASDAQ 24,752.3 (โ0.20%) โข VIX 20.63 (โ0.82%)
๐ Soft USD + calmer vol โ prefer disciplined dip-buys, avoid chasing highs.
๐ Takeaway โ Macro tone supports โpullback then resumeโ.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
5) GC Futures Structure
โข GC1 4,253.3 โข GC2 4,284.5 โ Contango +0.73%
๐ Contango = stable upward curve; favors orderly pullbacks over disorderly squeezes.
๐ Takeaway โ Futures curve aligned with spot; backdrop constructive.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
6) Volume Footprint
โข Buy zones: 4,229โ4,233 (value/POC) and 4,206โ4,215 (Uploading).
โข Sell zones: 4,236โ4,249 (staged Offloading) with intraday high print 4,241.99.
๐ Positive delta inside 4,229โ4,233 = value reload.
๐ Takeaway โ Demand 4,229โ4,233 / Supply 4,236โ4,249.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
7) Value Map (VAL / POC / VAH / VWAP)
VAL ~4,206โ4.21x โข POC ~4,229โ4,233 โข VAH ~4,241โ4,249 โข VWAP ~4.23x
๐ Above POC/VWAP = buyers in control; below = caution until delta flips.
๐ Takeaway โ Value rising gradually, centered near 4.23x.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
8) Fibonacci (current leg)
Working leg: 4,206 โ 4,241.99
38.2% โ 4,229 โข 50% โ 4,224 โข 61.8% โ 4,219 โข 100% = 4,241.99
๐ โGolden zoneโ 4,219โ4,229; holding with positive delta unlocks 4,243/4,249.
๐ Takeaway โ Watch 4,229 as decision axis.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
9) Ichimoku quick regime
โข Daily: mild positive above cloud elements
โข 4h: conditional up above 4.22x
โข 1h: TK up; KS supportive
โข 15m: TK up; Chikou nearly free; aligned with VWAP
๐ Takeaway โ Multi-TF alignment modestly bullish; 15m for execution.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
10) Schabacker (classical context)
โข Accumulation band above 4.22x with stepping highs near 4,241.9.
โข No confirmed top unless 4,241.9 fails and 4,229 closes lost.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
11) Liquidity & Gates
โข Gates: 4,229 โ 4,241.9 โ 4,249 โ 4,253 โ 4,265
โข Fast lanes: 4,236โ4,241.9 and 4,249โ4,253
๐ Takeaway โ 4,241.9 = expansion trigger; 4,229 = daily decision line.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
12) XAUMO Trend Board (Confidence %)
15m: 66% โข 1h: 64% โข 4h: 62% โข Daily: 60% โ Composite โ 64%
๐ Confidence lifts with RVOL โฅ 1.0 and closes > 4,241.9.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
13) Session Map
โข Asia: organized loading from value.
โข London: Buy-the-Dip above 4,229 targeting 4,243/4,249/4,253.
โข New York (later): continuation only if highs hold above 4,253.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
14) MTF Retracement Lab (EDU)
Anchors: VWAP ~4.23x โข POC 4,229โ4,233 โข VAL 4,206โ4.21x โข VAH 4,241โ4,249
A) Pullback Long
โข Entry: 4,229โ4,233 | SL: 4,219 | TP: 4,243 โ 4,249 โ 4,253
โข Why: POC/VWAP confluence + positive delta + steady contango.
B) VWAP Touch Scalps
โข Entry: 4,231โ4,233 | SL: 4,225 | TP: 4,241 โ 4,246
โข Why: touch-retrieve-impulse pattern with short-term momentum.
C) Educational Counter-fade from supply
โข Entry: 4,246โ4,249 | SL: 4,258 | TP: 4,241 โ 4,233 โ 4,229
โข Why: failed breakout inside staged offloading.
D) Break & Hold Continuation
โข Condition: hold > 4,253 | SL: 4,238 | TP: 4,265 โ 4,273
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
15) Execution & Discipline (EDU)
โ
Checklist: two 15m closes above gate โข RVOL present โข positive delta โข no high-impact data imminent โข pre-defined SL.
โ๏ธ Risk: โค1.0โ1.5%/trade โข Max 3 trades/session โข No chasing highs without a pullback.
๐ Takeaway โ Protect capital; focus on structured pullbacks.
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
๐ Final Take
As long as price holds >4,229, the bullish path targets 4,243 โ 4,249 โ 4,253.
A 15m close <4,219 invalidates and reopens 4,206.
XAUUSD 1H Analysis(16th October 2025) ASIA/LONDON
BUY/SELL SCENARIOS:
BUYS:
1) Body candle close above the Previous Day High at the 4218.23level.
2) Retest the Previous Day's High at the 4218.23 level.
3) Create a 5/15m Bullish Engulfing Candle to capitalise on BUYS towards the 4250.00 level.
SELLS:
1) Body candle close below the 4199.67 level.
2) Retest the 1h bearish CHOCH at the 4199.67 level.
3) Create a 3/5m Bearish Engulfing Candle to capitalize on SELLS toward the 4164.80 level
Trade Smart, Trade according to plan. Cheers!
Clearly, this can no longer be defined as a bull market.Clearly, this can no longer be defined as a bull market.
This is a mad cow.
As shown in Figure 4h:
Gold prices have peaked again near 4220.
The structure is very clear, marking the final resistance level of the converging ascending triangle.
The most important signal is that gold prices have entered the final explosive phase of a converging oscillation.
There are only two possible outcomes over the next two days:
1: Gold prices completely crush the bears and surge to $4300.
2: An extreme reversal occurs near 4220, forming a massive waterfall, completely crushing investors chasing higher prices and capturing a new wave of buyers.
Currently, there are only two strategies for day trading:
1: Go long at low prices and wait for a waterfall. Every large waterfall signals a long opportunity.
2: Play with fire. Go short in the 4200-4210 range, with a stop-loss above 4220. Large losses are possible at any time, but be prepared to bear them.
Given Powellโs mildly dovish tone 4,200 Handle is my next targetPowell acknowledged a firmer economic footing than earlier, but explicitly flagged weakness in the labour market (low hiring, low firing) as a concern. The fact that Powell is leaning more towards softening employment policies than inflation gives the market room to lean into goldโs narrative.
Bullish approach: Buy on dips toward your liquidity base @4,145โ4,150 after confirmation (bullish wick, reversal candle)
Stop-Loss: Below 4,135 (below the extreme discount block
Target 1: 4,200 zone
Target 2: 4,230โ4,250 if DXY weakens further post-Fed
Summary
Powellโs speech has given the bulls oxygen; the gold structure confirms it.
As long as 4,140 holds, the path of least resistance is north.
First TP is nearly in sight โ the market may even overshoot it on volatility.
Gold looks like it wants to break the upper resistance again. Gold's momentum don't stop. the move is slow and sort of choppy if you look a the low time frame. Can history repeat itself and poke through the line one more time? Or do liquidity dry up right before it reach and start dumping?
I am bullish overall, at least until we reach the upper trend like. We might break above that line and retest and break out again. That would be my dream scenario, but as a future trader, I am only trying to capture that small momentum from point A to point B. Which is slightly above the upper line in my case.
I think gold in spot will soon hit the 4200 psych level or slightly above it before we see a slow down.
As always trade, only trade with money you can afford to lose, and set a stop loss, even if its below where it might wick down for liquidity.
Gold Eyes New All-Time High
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๐ก Chart Analysis: Gold (XAU/USD) โ Daily Timeframe
Overview:
This chart presents a bullish continuation setup for Gold (XAU/USD) on the daily timeframe. The market has recently shown strong upward momentum, forming several large bullish candles after a period of consolidation.
Key Observations:
Recent Momentum:
A strong bullish rally has pushed the price upward, indicating renewed buyer interest and institutional activity.
Retracement Zone:
The highlighted green area represents a potential retracement or re-entry zone. Price is expected to pull back into this area before resuming its upward trajectory.
Stop Loss Placement:
The red zone beneath the retracement area marks the stop-loss level around $4,026, strategically placed below recent swing lows for risk management.
Target Level:
The target zone is aligned with the All-Time High (ATH) around $4,200, which serves as a key psychological and technical resistance level.
Projection Path:
The chartโs white and black arrows illustrate an expected bullish impulseโretracementโcontinuation pattern, suggesting the price may briefly correct before surging to new highs.
Gold Breaks Out: Strong Uptrend Continues!With the current XAUUSD chart, gold is showing a strong upward trend. On October 13th, gold broke the 4,100 USD/ounce mark, setting a new record due to the ongoing US-China trade tensions and expectations of a Fed rate cut. Politically, President Donald Trump's reignition of the trade war with China has driven investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset.
Furthermore, the 97% probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25% in October and 100% in December strengthens the appeal of gold, as gold typically performs well in low-interest-rate environments.
According to the chart analysis, gold may continue to climb towards the next resistance levels at 4,100 USD and 4,230 USD, if the current uptrend continues. In the short term, this bullish trend is expected to remain strong.