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what is happening wiyth xauusd?1. Fundamental Analysis (Macro Drivers) 🏦 Monetary Policy & Interest Rates Federal Reserve stance: The Fed has paused rate hikes amid slowing US growth and moderating inflation. Real yields have begun to fall, which supports gold prices. Market expectation: Traders now expect possible rate cuts in early 2026, lowering opportunity costs of holding non-yielding assets like gold. Impact: Lower real yields → bullish for gold. 💵 US Dollar Trends The US Dollar Index (DXY) has weakened over the last quarter due to rate-cut bets and growing fiscal deficits. A weaker dollar directly lifts XAU/USD since gold is priced in USD. 📈 Inflation & Recession Fears Despite softening inflation (US CPI ~3.2%), sticky services inflation and fiscal pressures maintain gold’s appeal as a hedge. Global growth is fragile, and recession fears (notably in Europe and Japan) have increased safe-haven demand. 🌍 Geopolitical & Structural Factors Escalating geopolitical tensions (Eastern Europe, South China Sea, Middle East) and US election uncertainty have driven institutional and central bank gold buying. Central banks (notably China, India, and Turkey) are diversifying away from the USD — net gold purchases are at multi-year highs. 🏦 Central Bank Gold Demand According to the World Gold Council, 2025 central bank purchases are on pace for another record year. This provides a floor for gold prices even during corrective phases. 📊 Fundamental Outlook Summary Factor Current Status Gold Impact Fed Policy / Yields Dovish bias ✅ Bullish US Dollar Weakening ✅ Bullish Inflation Moderate but sticky ✅ Bullish Geopolitical Risk Elevated ✅ Bullish Central Bank Demand Strong ✅ Bullish Global Growth Slowing ✅ Bullish 🔎 Overall Fundamental Bias: Strongly Bullish (Short-to-Medium Term) 📉 2. Technical Analysis (as of Oct 23 2025) 🔹 Current Price XAU/USD ≈ $4,340/oz (TradingEconomics, Oct 20 2025) 🔹 Trend Overview Long-term uptrend since early 2024 continues. Gold broke out from a multi-decade ascending channel earlier this year and now trades well above 200-day moving average. 🔹 Moving Averages Indicator Value Signal 20-day MA $4,215 ✅ Bullish 50-day MA $4,030 ✅ Bullish 100-day MA $3,740 ✅ Bullish 200-day MA $3,290 ✅ Bullish → All MAs are aligned in a bullish configuration (short-term > long-term). 🔹 RSI (Relative Strength Index) RSI ≈ 78 → Indicates overbought conditions → risk of short-term correction or consolidation before further rally. 🔹 Key Levels Type Level (USD/oz) Note Resistance 1 $4,400 Recent high Resistance 2 $4,500 Psychological round level Support 1 $4,200 Short-term support Support 2 $3,950 Strong support (previous breakout zone) Support 3 $3,700 Long-term support / 100-DMA 🔹 Chart Pattern Ascending channel with potential breakout continuation. Some analysts note a rising wedge, signaling possible short-term exhaustion. 🔹 Volume & Momentum Volume peaked on breakout above $4,000 — confirming strong institutional participation. Momentum indicators show minor divergence → watch for short-term pullback. 📊 3. Combined Outlook Horizon Technical Bias Fundamental Bias Combined View Short-Term (1–3 weeks) ⚠️ Overbought – possible pullback to $4,150–4,200 ✅ Bullish Consolidation likely before next leg up Medium-Term (1–3 months) ✅ Uptrend intact ✅ Bullish Buy on dips strategy favored Long-Term (6–12 months) ✅ Strong uptrend ✅ Bullish Targets $4,500–$5,000 possible 🪙 4. Scenario Analysis Scenario Trigger Likely Outcome Bullish Continuation Fed confirms 2026 rate cuts, DXY weakens Gold → $4,500+ Short-Term Correction RSI reset, USD rebound Pullback to $4,100–$4,200 Bearish Reversal Sharp rise in yields or risk-on sentiment Gold retests $3,700–$3,900 🧩 5. Trading/Investment Insights Short-term traders: Watch for retracement toward $4,150–$4,200 to consider buy setups. Swing traders: Maintain partial longs; trail stops below $4,000. Investors: Maintain core exposure; gold remains a hedge against macro and geopolitical volatility.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by realmillionairefx
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for October 22Gold Technical Analysis Daily Resistance: 4380, Support: 3900 4-Hour Resistance: 4180, Support: 4000 1-Hour Resistance: 4160, Support: 4000 Technically, gold fell by $380, temporarily halting its decline near 4000. Technical indicators are recovering, and the market is taking a brief breather. Bull markets are prone to large swings, so it's unclear whether gold has truly reversed in the short term. Gold has tested the 4000 support level twice. Watch for the continuation of the short-term downtrend. The moving average price has broken through the upward trend line in the short term, and the indicators are in a state of recovery, but the Bollinger Bands remain upward. The 4170/4180 levels on the daily chart are key. If they are successfully recaptured, the market is poised for a strong bullish resurgence. Otherwise, the market will continue to fluctuate downwards in the short term, looking for support. Focus on the 4000 level. If it breaks below, it will continue to move towards 3900. Looking at the 1-hour chart, the candlestick pattern has broken below the neckline of the M-shaped top. Market bearish sentiment is being released, and indicators continue to move downward rapidly. The short-term bull-bear dividing line is between 4188 and 4208. Short-term rebound momentum is limited, and the NY market remains bearish. Trading Strategy: BUY: 4000-4005near SELL: 4160near SELL: 4178near More Shares →
TVC:GOLDShort
by ActuaryJ
Trade Idea: Gold (XAU/USD) 📌 Current Price: ~ 4,098 USD (as per your chart) 📌 Bias: Bullish-on-pullback / breakout 🔍 Key Levels Support Zone: ~ 4,060 to ~ 4,040 USD — this is the area where price has recently found buyers (your grey/green box). Lower Support Alert: If the above fails, next meaningful support is around ~ 4,000 USD (psychological whole-number & chart memory). Resistance Zone: ~ 4,140 to ~ 4,160 USD (your upper green line) — if price breaks above cleanly, further upside becomes more likely. Higher Resistance Target: ~ 4,200-4,300 USD if breakout is strong. 📈 Trade Plan Entry: Option A: Wait for price to dip into the support zone (~ 4,060-4,040 USD) and show bullish confirmation (eg. long wick, bullish candle) → then enter long. Option B: Enter on breakout above resistance (~ 4,140-4,160 USD) with momentum & volume. Stop Loss: If entering at support: Place stop slightly below ~ 4,000 USD (eg. ~ 3,990-3,980 USD). If entering on breakout: Place stop just below breakout level, e.g. below ~ 4,120 USD. Targets: Near‐term: ~ 4,140-4,160 USD (if buy from support) or ~ 4,200 USD (if breakout). Longer term: ~ 4,300-4,400 USD if momentum holds and macro supports this. 📌 Risk & Notes Price is relatively elevated already (~ 4,098 USD) — entering now means you’re buying nearer to the highs, which adds risk. The broader market indicators suggest gold may be somewhat overbought (so the pullback path is realistic). Keep position size moderate and use the stop loss strictly. Monitor macro drivers: U.S. dollar strength, interest rate signals, inflation data — gold is sensitive to those. If support fails (drop below ~ 4,000 USD), it may trigger a deeper correction, so respect the stop.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Jod_Afnan_FX
XAU pre market updatedRighty!!!! HUGE moments in Asia for Uncle Ling The Plug!!!! We need to settle above $4108 in Asia and sustain!!! Super Handle remains at $3983. If a return is made and we dip and break back above. We WILL be on road 🏦 Again, I’m hoping $4011 holds enough weight to settle that area and if so, we should be able to hold above $4108 which will break the money line $$$$ at $4150 and take us into $4190!!! Dangers right here is the daily close. Definitely not supportive of what we are trying to achieve but if you really know gold, she can upset with “what it looks like” vs “what she needs to do” and that’s definitely a return on $4300-$4318!!!! Tread carefully, and let’s see what Uncle Ling has in play for his session! (Also second profile is only valid when we can get closure above ✅) 📕🫶🏽
FX:XAUUSDLong
by JupahduhX
1
XAUUSD – Sharp 5% Drop as Traders Take Profit Ahead of US CPIMarket Context: Gold (XAU/USD) slumped over 5.5% on Tuesday, marking its largest daily decline in months as traders took profits ahead of the upcoming US CPI data (October 24). The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded 0.36% to 98.94, making gold more expensive for foreign buyers. This correction also coincides with renewed optimism over potential easing of US–China trade tensions, after President Trump confirmed plans to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping next week. While this sharp move caught many traders off guard, it appears to be a healthy correction within a broader bullish structure, as investors remain cautious before major data and the upcoming Fed policy meeting next week. Technical Outlook (M30): After the heavy selloff from the 4,375 high, gold found near-term support around 4,003 – 4,010, forming a potential accumulation base. The pair now trades near 4,150, showing early signs of recovery toward key confluence zones. Key Technical Levels: OBS Sell Zone: 4,338 – 4,340 CP Zone Down / OBS Sell Zone: 4,259 – 4,260 CP Zone Up / OBS Buy Zone: 4,092 – 4,094 Deep Buy Zone: 4,003 – 4,008 The current structure outlines a 5-wave projection, where price may complete Wave II near 4,092, then advance toward Wave III at 4,259, followed by a correction (Wave IV) and another push toward Wave V near 4,338. Trading Plan: 🔹 BUY ZONE#1 (Short-Term Recovery) Entry: 4,092 – 4,094 Stop Loss: 4,080 Take Profit: 4,145 → 4,259 → 4,338 🔹 BUY ZONE #2 (Liquidity Sweep Scenario) Entry: 4,003 – 4,008 Stop Loss: 3,990 Take Profit: 4,090 → 4,259 🔹 SELL ZONE (Countertrend Reaction) Entry: 4,259 – 4,260 Stop Loss: 4,272 Take Profit: 4,145 → 4,092 Summary: The recent 5% correction is viewed as a profit-taking phase ahead of CPI data, not a structural breakdown. Gold is expected to stabilise above 4,092, with buyers likely stepping in near the OBS Buy Zone. Focus remains on 4,259 for a short-term reaction and 4,338 as the next potential liquidity target if momentum continues. 📊 What’s your view — is this just a healthy retracement before CPI, or the start of a deeper shift? 👉 Follow MMFLOW TRADING for daily institutional-grade setups and smart money structure updates.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Gold Trend Shift (4hr) Time frameDescription ✅ Trend Shift : Price broke the previous bullish structure — short-term bearish momentum confirmed. 🔹 Breaker Level : Previous swing high now acts as potential resistance on any retrace. 🔹 Demand Zone : Strong buyer interest around 4,000–4,050 — watch for bullish reversal signals. 📈 Potential Move : 1. Price may drop toward the demand zone. 2. Buyers reacting here could push price back to the breaker level. 3. Reclaiming the breaker could signal continuation toward next order block: 4,300–4,350. ⚡ Key Takeaways: Monitor the demand zone for bullish confirmations. Breaker retest = high-probability buy setup. Risk management is essential — structure shows a clear shift from bullish → bearish. #DYOR
TVC:GOLDShort
by Champ_of_Gold
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for October 21stGold prices rebounded sharply yesterday, fully recovering the $200 drop from last Friday as of today's Asian time. From a structural perspective, after the downward risk in gold is released and there's no continuation, it will face renewed pressure to challenge new highs, with 4400 likely to be reached this week. While there will be some volatility before the Fed's rate cut at the end of the month, gold's trend inertia remains. A slow rise amidst fluctuations will allow the market to gradually absorb the new buying pressure until the next imbalance between bulls and bears. Of course, the confirmation of a double top pattern in gold is also crucial on the 4-hour chart. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines are about to form another downward death cross. If gold fails to hold above 4300 today, yesterday's rebound will be merely a final push by buyers. Even if gold breaks above 4400 again this week, I believe the upward trend will be short-lived, with a volatile bull-bear tug-of-war continuing to dominate the market for the foreseeable future. The short-term bull-bear dividing line is near 4295. Today, focus on the support levels of 4245 and 4185. Buy once the price stabilizes. If it falls below 4185, it will test the support levels of 4146 and 4100. BUY: 4245 near BUY: 4185 near SELL: 4295 near
TVC:GOLDShort
by ActuaryJ
Gold Awakens – Bulls Target the 4240 ZoneGold is showing renewed buying pressure after rebounding from recent support near 4170. Price structure remains bullish on the short-term swing outlook, with higher lows forming and momentum shifting back toward resistance levels. Key Levels: Buy Entry: 4195 Take Profit: 4240 Stop Loss: 4170 Reasoning: Technically, gold has stabilized above its short-term base and reclaimed key intraday zones, signaling improving buyer sentiment. The structure suggests a potential continuation toward the next resistance at 4240, supported by momentum recovery and stronger demand near the 4170 to 4180 area. Fundamentally, lingering geopolitical concerns and U.S. yield fluctuations continue to support gold’s safe-haven demand, keeping the bias upward in the near term. Disclaimer: This content is for educational and market analysis purposes only — not financial advice.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SwingTrade_Concept
Gold’s Record High: What’s Next?Spot gold edged lower on Tuesday after hitting fresh record levels, pressured by a recovering US dollar and improved global risk sentiment. However, the downside appears limited. Growing concerns over a potential US government shutdown and its economic impact, alongside strong market expectations for another Fed rate cut this year, continue to weigh on the dollar – providing key underlying support for gold. Additionally, persistent trade tensions and geopolitical risks reinforce gold's role as a preferred safe-haven asset. Amid these crosscurrents, the market is seeking its next clear directional catalyst. Technically, yesterday's strong bullish candle erased the prior session's decline and pushed to new highs, confirming sustained buying interest. Still, after such a sharp move, signs of short-term exhaustion are emerging near the highs, suggesting a possible shift from the previous one-way rally to a phase of wide-range consolidation. While the extreme volatility may moderate, the risk of sudden sharp swings remains. Trading Strategy: Favor buying on dips within the expected range rather than chasing the rally at elevated levels. Key resistance sits at 4300–4320 – a clear break above opens the next leg higher. Major support lies in the 4245–4230 zone, where a firm hold could offer a reference for establishing new long positions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by High-Class
Gold Trading Strategy | October 20-21✅ 4-Hour Chart Analysis: Since rebounding from the 4186.62 low, gold has continued to strengthen, currently trading around the 4340–4350 zone and approaching the upper resistance area. The moving averages (MA5 and MA10) have formed a golden cross, while MA20 is turning upward, indicating that the short-term trend has shifted from weak to strong. Both MA60 and MA120 remain in an upward slope, confirming that the medium-term structure is still bullish. The Bollinger Bands show the upper band near 4369, the middle around 4265, and the lower near 4160. The price has regained the middle band and is now approaching the upper band, suggesting the market has shifted from previous consolidation to a rebound recovery phase. If gold breaks through the 4365–4375 area, it may further test the previous high at 4379.52, and potentially challenge the 4400 level. ✅ 1-Hour Chart Analysis: After rallying from its recent low, gold has formed a clear upward channel. The upper Bollinger Band is around 4356, the middle near 4278, and the lower around 4200. The price is trading near the upper band, showing strong short-term bullish momentum, though caution is warranted near the 4350–4370 resistance area where profit-taking may occur. The short-term trend remains strong; however, if gold fails to break 4355–4375, it may face a mild consolidation. Key support lies around 4320–4300. 🔴 Resistance Levels: 4355–4375 / 4400 🟢 Support Levels: 4320–4300 / 4265 ✅ Trading Strategy Reference: 🔰 If the price breaks and stabilizes above 4375, consider light long positions, targeting 4400–4415, with a stop loss below 4350. 🔰 If the price rebounds to 4350–4375 and faces resistance, consider taking partial profits or short-term selling opportunities. 🔰 If the price pulls back to 4320–4300 and stabilizes, consider re-entering long positions for another upward move. 📊 Gold’s overall trend remains bullish, with the short-term rebound still in progress. The 4-hour chart indicates the medium-term bullish structure remains intact, while the 1-hour chart shows strong short-term momentum. If gold breaks above 4375–4380 during the U.S. session, it could re-enter a strong upward trend channel; however, if it faces resistance and falls below 4320, it may return to a high-level consolidation phase.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by GoldDailyAnalysis01
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold had a strong pullback on Friday following last week’s sharp rally and is now consolidating between 4,279 and 4,227. The retracement has allowed the market to cool off after consecutive all-time highs, while buyers are still defending the First Reaction Zone (4,227–4,192). Price remains above the MA200, maintaining the broader bullish structure, but continues to struggle reclaiming the MA50, which now acts as short-term resistance. A break above 4,279 could re-ignite bullish momentum toward 4,321 and 4,362, while a failure to hold 4,227 may invite deeper correction toward 4,151–4,117. 📌 Key levels to watch: Resistance: 4279 4321 4362 4406 Support: 4227 4192 4151 4117 🔎 Fundamental focus: This week’s calendar features key U.S. data releases, including Flash PMIs, Durable Goods Orders, and Consumer Sentiment, though many reports risk delay due to the ongoing government shutdown. The blackout continues to cloud market visibility and reinforce safe-haven demand for gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by azgoldtrader
GOLD DAILY CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEDaily Chart Update – Goldturn Channel Analysis Hey Traders, After successfully completing our previous Daily chart projection, we’re excited to share our latest Goldturn Channel update and Daily chart idea, our proprietary method of identifying structural turning points within Golds ascending channel formation. Price action has now reached the upper boundary of the Goldturn channel, following a precise move to the 3866 target, triggered by the body close above 3776. With a new body close above 3866, we now have the 3959 gap open. The 3866 channel top area remains a critical inflection point: A confirmed EMA5 cross and lock above the channel top would strengthen the bullish breakout structure. Conversely, an EMA5 rejection or close back below this level may indicate a fake out or short-term exhaustion. On the downside, 3766 now acts as the nearest dynamic support, while 3683 aligns with the channel midline and remains a key structural pivot should deeper correction unfold. As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
9
Analysis of the trend of gold next weekCurrently, the gold market is in a stage of "shock - upward movement driven by news". Although there is a battle between bulls and bears at the $4112 level, the upward opportunities next week are more worthy of attention. It is necessary to lay out in line with the trend and strictly control risks. The specific strategy is as follows: I. Core Logic: Key Factors Influencing the Gold Price Trend Next Week 1. **The medium - and long - term support foundation remains intact**: The Federal Reserve has already started the interest - rate - cutting cycle. Judging from the meeting minutes, officials tend to gradually continue to loosen policies. As a result, the cost of holding gold is getting lower and lower, and its attractiveness is naturally increasing. Moreover, global central banks are still continuously buying gold. This long - term and large - scale buying can underpin the gold price, making a significant decline highly unlikely. In addition, the output growth rate of the world's top ten gold - mining enterprises has only been 1.8% in the past three years, and the problem of tight supply will also support the price in the long term. 2. **Short - term positive signals are increasing**: There are new signs of tension in the Middle East situation. The Houthi militia in Yemen has attacked the cargo ships in the Red Sea, resulting in 18% of the world's container ships changing their routes, and the shipping costs have soared. The market's safe - haven demand has significantly rebounded. Once such geopolitical risks ferment, they will drive funds to flow into gold. At the same time, the gold price rebounded after falling to around $4000 this week, indicating that the buying support at low levels is very strong, and much of the previous pullback pressure has been released. 3. **Key events next week will determine the direction**: The market is closely watching the changes in relevant news. Whether it is the new dynamics of the Middle East situation or the policy signals from the Federal Reserve, they will directly affect the gold price trend. Judging from the recent fluctuations, as long as the support near $4000 is not broken, the possibility of an upward trend is greater than that of a downward trend. Trading strategy for gold next week xauusd @buy4040-4060 TP:4110-4150-4200
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Ryan_Lewis1
Selling Pressure will result in Change of story by tapping 3950Gold Technical Outlook The selling pressure in Gold since the London session opened has been extremely strong. This momentum could lead to a mitigation of the major support zone around $3,950 – $3,980. A downward parallel channel is clearly visible on the chart, providing an additional confluence for bearish momentum. As long as the 1-hour candle does not close above $4,065 , the bearish bias remains valid. 🔹 Trade Setup (Sell Plan) Entry Zone : $4,055 – $4,060 Stop Loss : $4,072 Targets : Major support zone at $3,950 – $3,980 🧭 Bias : Strongly Bearish 💡 Watch for any break and close above $4,065 to
TVC:GOLDShort
by leya_about-Trading