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XAUUSD Weekly Outlook (25–29 August 2025)Hey team — happy new week! Let’s lock in the XAUUSD Weekly Outlook (Aug 25–29) so we start focused and calm. ✨ 🔸 Macro & News Context This week is loaded with USD catalysts that will shape gold’s direction: Tuesday (26 Aug): Core Durable Goods Orders, CB Consumer Confidence Thursday (28 Aug): Unemployment Claims, Prelim GDP Price Index Friday (29 Aug): Core PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) + FOMC Member Waller speaks ⚡️ Wednesday has no major data → expect technical price action mid–week before Thursday–Friday volatility. 🔸 Weekly Structure & Bias Trend: Bullish on HTF; price remains above EMA21/EMA50. Location: Consolidating in premium territory (3300–3350). Liquidity: Buy-side above 3350–3439 wick supply. Sell-side below 3260–3280 (PML). Order Flow: Buyers continue defending mid-range, sellers pressuring highs. Equilibrium until news triggers breakout. 🔸 Key Structural Zones Premium Supply (Resistance): 3350 – 3439 (weekly wick supply). Decision Zone: 3300 – 3320 (mid-range control + EMA confluence). Weekly Demand: 3260 – 3205 (OB + liquidity cluster). Deeper HTF Demand: 2965 – 2590 (not in play unless strong breakdown). 🔸 Target Zones Above 3439 If weekly closes above 3439, price enters clean air. Using fibo extensions from swing 2965 → 3439: 1.272 extension: 3520–3530 (first major upside target). 1.618 extension: 3635–3650 (secondary bullish projection). These are the next realistic institutional levels where gold could face supply pressure. 🔸 Weekly Scenarios Bullish Case 🟢 Break and close above 3350–3439 → extension toward 3520–3530. If macro data weakens USD (soft GDP / lower PCE), momentum accelerates. Bearish Case 🔴 Rejection from 3350–3439 zone + strong US data → pullback into 3300. Break below 3300 reactivates demand at 3260–3205. 🔸 Conclusion & Action Plan This week is range-to-breakout: Above 3439 → upside opens toward 3520–3530. Below 3300 → downside pullback into 3260 demand. News flow (Thu–Fri) will decide the weekly candle close. Patience until the macro catalysts hit — the cleanest sniper entries will come after confirmation. If this was helpful, drop a like, share your bias in the comments, and follow GoldFxMinds for the daily plan next. Let’s trade the facts, not the noise. 💛 Disclosure: Analysis built on Trade Nation feed (Gold Spot · TradeNation data).
TRADENATION:XAUUSD
by GoldFxMinds
3330 Keys to Today's Strategy✏️The weekend gold trading strategy has not changed much. mainly based on the 2 border zones of the box from 3359 to 3330. The weak upward momentum in recent days makes gold easy to fall on the weekend. The 3330 zone is still a very special zone and wait for clear confirmation from the candle to trade to avoid False break. Be careful not to trade against the trend with the BUY signal when the 3330 zone is broken, the reaction of the buyers is very likely to come to the 3303 zone. 📉 Key Levels SELL trigger Break and trading bellow 3330 Target 3285 BUY Trigger Confirmation of the candle closing above 3340 Target 3380 Resistance: 3340-3358-3378 Support: 3330-3304-3285 Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by VHT_Trader
11
Gold sideways, unclear trend, needs more momentum✏️Gold has reacted at the Trendline and created another decline to Fibonacci 0.382. Buying power is still strong enough to pull H4 back above 3331. It is difficult to determine the next trend of Gold at the moment. Gold is sideways in a fairly narrow range and waiting for more momentum to confirm the trend. The areas of interest are still the Fibonacci zones that cross each hook to reach the next hook. Note that H4 closes below 3331 to confirm a bearish reversal to 3285. 📉 Key Levels BUY trigger: Price breaks the trendline and Fibonacci at 3345. BUY DCA: Breaks 3358 with candle confirmation Target 3400 SELL trigger H4 closes below 3331 Target 3285 Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VHT_Trader
8
Gold go back in wide trading range.What is the good trading plan✏️Gold broke the Trendline and returned to the wide trading range from 3330-3360. The accumulation range for many days will continue to be relied on by investors to execute entry points. The correction from the beginning of the Asian session today is aimed at the target of 3332, which is the convergence zone of the lower boundary and the 0.5 fibo retracement of yesterday's wave. In terms of wave structure, if it bounces from this area, it is very likely to create a new uptrend towards 3378. On the contrary, the closing of the H1 candle below 3332 will confirm the return of the Down wave and continue towards the target of 3385 in the shortest time. 📉 Key Levels Buy trigger: retest 3332 with the reaction of the buyers SELL trigger: Break and trading bellow 3332 ( Break bellow trendline) SELL DCA trigger Break 3320 supports the convergence of the trendline and the old break zone Support 3332-3320-3310-3300-3285 Resistance 3358-3378 Leave your comments on the idea. I am happy to read your views.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by VHT_Trader
20
# XAUUSD Comprehensive Technical Analysis# XAUUSD Comprehensive Technical Analysis & Geopolitical Strategy **Current Position**: $3,371.95 (Aug 23, 2025, 12:50 AM UTC+4) * 🎯 Executive Summary Gold at historic levels with exceptional YoY performance (+34.33%) driven by geopolitical uncertainty and central bank accumulation. Technical analysis suggests potential continuation toward $3,500-$3,600, but near-term consolidation in $3,200-$3,500 range likely amid conflicting fundamental forces. --- # 🌍 GEOPOLITICAL & FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP * **Central Bank Demand Revolution** *# Unprecedented Accumulation *Historical Context**: Central banks accumulated >1,000t annually for three consecutive years *Previous Decade Average**: 400-500t annually *Reserve Composition**: Gold now 20% of global official reserves (highest in decades) *Leadership**: China, India, Turkey leading dollar diversification *# Strategic Implications *De-dollarization**: Emerging markets reducing USD exposure *Reserve Safety**: Geopolitical uncertainty driving safe-haven demand *Monetary Policy**: Central banks hedging against currency debasement *Long-term Support**: Structural bid for gold reserves * **Geopolitical Risk Matrix** *# Active Conflict Zones *Russia-Ukraine**: Ongoing military operations affecting energy/grain markets *Israel-Iran**: Regional tensions creating safe-haven flows *US-China Relations**: Trade tensions under Trump administration *Nuclear Rhetoric**: Elevated tensions affecting risk sentiment *# Economic Policy Uncertainty *Federal Reserve Policy**: Rate cut expectations vs. inflation concerns *Trump Administration**: Trade wars, tariff policies, geopolitical approach *Currency Wars**: Competitive devaluation risks *Fiscal Deficits**: Growing debt burdens supporting gold demand * **Monetary Policy Environment** *# Fed Policy Divergence *Market Expectations**: Rate cuts anticipated but not delivered *Inflation Trajectory**: Persistent above-target pressures *Dollar Strength**: Export competitiveness concerns *Real Rates**: Negative real yields supporting gold *# Global Central Bank Coordination *ECB Policy**: Restrictive stance limiting Euro strength *Bank of Japan**: Intervention concerns in FX markets *People's Bank of China**: Gradual RMB internationalization *Swiss National Bank**: Gold reserve management --- # 📊 MULTI-TIMEFRAME TECHNICAL ANALYSIS * **INTRADAY ANALYSIS (5M - 4H)** *# **5-Minute Timeframe Analysis** ** Candlestick Patterns *Current Formation**: Consolidation after recent rejection from highs *Key Patterns**: *Hammer below $3,350**: Bullish reversal signal *Shooting Star above $3,390**: Distribution warning *Doji near $3,370**: Indecision at current levels *Volume Analysis**: Lighter volume on pullbacks (bullish) ** Technical Indicators (5M) *RSI(14)**: 52-58 (Neutral to slightly bullish) *VWAP**: $3,368 ± 15 (Dynamic pivot level) *Bollinger Bands**: Middle band at $3,365, slight contraction *EMA(20)**: $3,362 (immediate support) ** 5M Scalping Strategy *Long Entry**: Break above $3,380 with volume *Stop Loss**: Below $3,355 (25 point risk) *Target 1**: $3,395 (R:R 1:0.6) *Target 2**: $3,410 (R:R 1:1.4) *# **15-Minute Timeframe Analysis** ** Harmonic Patterns *Active Pattern**: Potential Gartley completion at $3,320-$3,340 *ABCD Structure**: Current D-leg targeting $3,420-$3,450 *Fibonacci Confluence**: - 61.8% retracement at $3,345 - 78.6% extension at $3,415 - 100% extension at $3,465 ** Wyckoff Analysis (15M) *Phase**: Testing after accumulation *Character**: Professional money accumulating weakness *Volume Pattern**: Higher volume on advances *Next Phase**: Markup continuation expected above $3,380 ** 15M Position Strategy *Support Entry**: $3,340-$3,360 zone *Stop Loss**: Below $3,320 (20-40 point risk) *Target 1**: $3,420 (R:R 1:1.5) *Target 2**: $3,465 (R:R 1:2.6) *# **30-Minute Timeframe Analysis** ** Elliott Wave Structure *Primary Count**: Wave 5 of (3) in progress - Wave 1: $3,200 → $3,350 - Wave 2: $3,350 → $3,290 - Wave 3: $3,290 → $3,390 (extended) - Wave 4: $3,390 → $3,340 (current) - Wave 5 Target: $3,450-$3,500 ** Alternative Elliott Count *Wave (5) of larger degree**: Targeting $3,500-$3,600 *Correction Risk**: If below $3,300, deeper pullback likely *Extension Scenario**: Above $3,400 suggests acceleration ** W.D. Gann Analysis (30M) *Square of 9**: - $3,364 = 58² (current area) - $3,481 = 59² (next major resistance) - $3,600 = 60² (psychological target) *Time Theory**: Next major window Aug 27-29 *Angle Theory**: 1x1 Gann line at $3,300 (major support) *# **1-Hour Timeframe Analysis** ** Ichimoku Kinko Hyo *Tenkan-sen (9)**: $3,375 (resistance level) *Kijun-sen (26)**: $3,350 (key support) *Kumo Cloud**: $3,280-$3,320 (support zone) *Chikou Span**: Above price action (bullish) *Future Cloud**: Bullish configuration maintained ** Moving Average Convergence *SMA(20)**: $3,358 *EMA(20)**: $3,365 *SMA(50)**: $3,340 *EMA(50)**: $3,345 *SMA(200)**: $3,200 *Alignment**: All bullish, strong trend structure ** 1H Swing Setup *Bull Flag**: Breakout above $3,385 *Entry**: $3,390 with volume confirmation *Stop**: $3,340 (50 point risk) *Target 1**: $3,450 (R:R 1:1.2) *Target 2**: $3,500 (R:R 1:2.2) *# **4-Hour Timeframe Analysis** ** Advanced Pattern Recognition *Ascending Triangle**: Base at $3,300, resistance at $3,390 *Cup & Handle**: Potential handle formation *Volume Profile**: High volume node at $3,350 *Critical Levels**: *Major Resistance**: $3,390-$3,420 *Key Support**: $3,320-$3,350 *Major Support**: $3,250-$3,300 ** 4H Position Strategy *Pattern**: Bullish continuation setup *Entry Zone**: $3,340-$3,370 on pullbacks *Stop Loss**: Below $3,280 (60-90 point risk) *Target 1**: $3,450 (R:R 1:1) *Target 2**: $3,550 (R:R 1:2.2) *Target 3**: $3,650 (R:R 1:3.4) --- # 📈 SWING ANALYSIS (Daily - Monthly) * **Daily Timeframe** *# Elliott Wave Daily Structure *Supercycle**: Wave (5) from 2008 financial crisis lows *Cycle**: Wave 5 of (5) in mature bull market phase *Primary**: Wave (3) of 5 targeting $3,800-$4,000 *Current Status**: Mid-stage advance with correction potential *# Historical Context Analysis *All-Time High**: $3,390 area recent peak *Support Structure**: $3,200-$3,300 major zone *Resistance Hierarchy**: $3,400, $3,500, $3,600 *Trend Integrity**: Intact since 2022 lows at $1,620 *# Wyckoff Daily Assessment *Phase**: Continued markup with periodic testing *Accumulation**: Major base building 2022-2023 *Distribution**: No signs of professional selling yet *Volume**: Institutional participation on advances *# Gann Daily Projections *Annual Cycle**: Q3-Q4 traditionally strong for gold *Master Time Cycles**: 7-year cycle supportive through 2026 *Price Squares**: - $3,600 = 60² (major target) - $3,844 = 62² (extended projection) - $4,096 = 64² (maximum extension) * **Weekly Timeframe** *# Long-term Elliott Wave *Grand Supercycle**: Wave (V) from 1970s lows *Supercycle**: Final wave of multi-decade advance *Target Range**: $4,000-$5,000 (secular peak) *Timeline**: Peak expected 2025-2027 *# Weekly Harmonic Analysis *Shark Pattern**: Completion target $3,800-$4,000 *Butterfly Extension**: Maximum at $4,200-$4,500 *ABCD Projections**: 1.618 extension at $3,750 *# Central Bank Accumulation Impact *Structural Support**: Continuous buying below $3,000 *Price Floor**: Central bank demand creating higher lows *Momentum Shifts**: Reduced selling pressure on pullbacks *Long-term Trajectory**: Upward bias maintained * **Monthly Timeframe** *# Macro Structural Analysis *Primary Degree**: Final wave of secular bull market *Completion Criteria**: $4,000-$5,000 target zone *Post-Peak Risk**: Significant correction to $2,000-$2,500 *Timeline**: Secular peak likely 2025-2027 *# Monthly Technical Indicators *RSI**: 70+ (Elevated but sustainable in bull market) *MACD**: Bullish momentum with minor divergence *Volume**: Central bank buying supporting structure *Seasonal**: August-December historically strong --- # 🎯 CRITICAL LEVELS & TARGETS * **Immediate Levels (24-48 Hours)** *# Resistance Framework *R1**: $3,390-$3,400 (immediate ceiling) *R2**: $3,420-$3,440 (psychological resistance) *R3**: $3,480-$3,500 (Gann square resistance) *R4**: $3,550-$3,600 (major target zone) *# Support Structure *S1**: $3,350-$3,360 (immediate floor) *S2**: $3,320-$3,340 (key retracement) *S3**: $3,280-$3,300 (major support) *S4**: $3,200-$3,250 (critical support) * **Short-term Projections (1-2 Weeks)** *# Bullish Scenario (60% Probability) *Target 1**: $3,450-$3,500 *Target 2**: $3,550-$3,600 *Target 3**: $3,650-$3,700 *Catalysts**: Geopolitical escalation, Fed dovishness *# Consolidation Scenario (30% Probability) *Range**: $3,200-$3,500 for 2-4 weeks *Support**: Central bank buying on weakness *Resistance**: Profit-taking at highs *Resolution**: Eventually bullish *# Bearish Scenario (10% Probability) *Target 1**: $3,100-$3,200 *Target 2**: $2,950-$3,050 *Catalysts**: Fed hawkishness, geopolitical resolution * **Medium-term Outlook (1-3 Months)** *# Primary Scenario *Wave Target**: $3,800-$4,000 *Timeline**: Q4 2025 *Drivers**: Central bank demand, currency debasement *Resistance**: $3,600 psychological level --- # 📅 DAILY TRADING STRATEGIES WITH GEOPOLITICAL OVERLAY * **MONDAY, AUGUST 26, 2025** *# Market Opening Context *Asian Session**: China PMI data impact on risk sentiment *Geopolitical Overnight**: Monitor Middle East developments *Dollar Dynamics**: USD strength/weakness affecting gold *Central Bank Communications**: Any policy signals *# Opening Scenarios *Gap Up**: Above $3,385 on safe-haven flows *Gap Down**: Below $3,350 on risk-on sentiment *Neutral Open**: Continuation of Friday's close level *# **Primary Trading Strategies** ** Setup 1: Geopolitical Premium Play *Catalyst**: Overnight tensions escalation *Entry**: Gap up fade to $3,370-$3,380 *Stop**: $3,340 (30-40 point risk) *Target 1**: $3,420 (R:R 1:1.3) *Target 2**: $3,465 (R:R 1:2.4) ** Setup 2: Risk-On Reversal *Catalyst**: De-escalation news or risk-on sentiment *Entry**: Break below $3,350 with volume *Stop**: $3,375 (25 point risk) *Target 1**: $3,320 (R:R 1:1.2) *Target 2**: $3,290 (R:R 1:2.4) ** Setup 3: Range Development *Consolidation**: $3,350-$3,390 range *Buy Zone**: $3,355-$3,365 *Sell Zone**: $3,380-$3,390 *Stops**: Outside range by $15-20 *# Risk Management Monday *Position Size**: Standard risk given established trend *News Monitoring**: Real-time geopolitical updates *Time Stops**: Avoid holding through major announcements --- * **TUESDAY, AUGUST 27, 2025** *# Technical Focus *Gann Time Window**: Major reversal potential *Elliott Wave**: Critical juncture for wave progression *Central Bank Activity**: Monitor official sector buying *# **Strategic Approaches** ** Setup 1: Gann Time Reversal *Bullish Reversal**: From $3,340-$3,360 support *Entry**: Hammer/doji confirmation *Stop**: $3,320 (20-40 point risk) *Target**: $3,450-$3,500 (R:R 1:3) ** Setup 2: Breakout Acceleration *Above $3,395**: Momentum continuation *Entry**: $3,400 with volume >150% average *Stop**: $3,365 (35 point risk) *Target 1**: $3,465 (R:R 1:1.9) *Target 2**: $3,520 (R:R 1:3.4) ** Setup 3: Failed Breakout Fade *False Break**: Above $3,395 without follow-through *Entry**: Return below $3,380 *Stop**: $3,400 (20 point risk) *Target**: $3,340-$3,320 (R:R 1:2) --- * **WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 28, 2025** *# Mid-Week Dynamics *Federal Reserve**: Any policy communications *Economic Data**: US GDP, inflation expectations *Dollar Index**: Impact on gold pricing *# **Strategy Implementation** ** Setup 1: Fed Policy Response *Dovish Fed**: Bullish for gold - Target: $3,500-$3,600 - Strategy: Buy pullbacks aggressively *Hawkish Fed**: Headwind for gold - Target: $3,250-$3,300 - Strategy: Short rallies, defensive ** Setup 2: Economic Data Trading *Strong Data**: Dollar strength, gold weakness *Weak Data**: Safe-haven flows to gold *Mixed Data**: Range-bound continuation ** Setup 3: Technical Pattern Completion *Triangle Resolution**: Direction determined by volume *Measured Move**: Pattern height projected *Failure**: Opposite direction trade --- * **THURSDAY, AUGUST 29, 2025** *# Pre-Weekend Positioning *Institutional Flow**: Month-end adjustments approaching *Geopolitical Risk**: Weekend headline sensitivity *Options Activity**: Expiration impact on volatility *# **Advanced Strategies** ** Setup 1: Monthly Close Positioning *Above $3,400**: Bullish monthly signal *Below $3,300**: Bearish monthly warning *Volume Confirmation**: Essential for validity ** Setup 2: Geopolitical Hedge *Rising Tensions**: Safe-haven premium increase *Conflict Resolution**: Risk-on gold selling *Nuclear Rhetoric**: Maximum safe-haven demand ** Setup 3: Central Bank Flow *Official Sector Buying**: Support on weakness *Intervention**: Price floor establishment *Accumulation**: Long-term structural support --- * **FRIDAY, AUGUST 30, 2025** *# Monthly Close Significance *Long-term Charts**: Critical for technical analysis *Institutional Rebalancing**: End-of-month flows *Weekend Risk**: Geopolitical headline exposure *# **End-of-Week Execution** ** Setup 1: Monthly Close Play *Strong Close >$3,400**: September bullish setup *Weak Close <$3,300**: Defensive positioning *Neutral Close**: Range continuation likely ** Setup 2: Weekend Risk Management *High Tensions**: Reduce exposure, take profits *Stable Environment**: Hold strategic positions *Uncertain News**: Hedge with options if available ** Setup 3: Seasonal Positioning *Q4 Strength**: Historical gold performance *Election Cycle**: Political uncertainty premium *Year-End**: Institutional portfolio adjustments --- # 🌍 GEOPOLITICAL SCENARIO PLANNING * **Scenario 1: Conflict Escalation (35% Probability)** *# Triggers *Nuclear Threats**: US-Russia rhetoric intensification *Direct Confrontation**: Israel-Iran military action *Trade War**: US-China comprehensive tariffs *# Gold Impact *Target**: $3,800-$4,200 (Safe-haven surge) *Timeline**: 2-8 weeks *Volume**: Massive institutional flows *Correlation**: Inverse to risk assets *# Trading Strategy *Long Bias**: Aggressive accumulation on pullbacks *Leverage**: Moderate use appropriate *Hedging**: Unnecessary in safe-haven environment *Duration**: Hold through volatility * **Scenario 2: Diplomatic Resolution (25% Probability)** *# Catalysts *Peace Negotiations**: Ukraine conflict progress *Trade Agreements**: US-China détente *Nuclear De-escalation**: Diplomatic breakthrough *# Market Impact *Gold Target**: $2,800-$3,200 (Risk-on selling) *Timeline**: 1-3 months *Dollar Strength**: Risk currency outperformance *Central Bank Buying**: Continued but reduced impact *# Trading Approach *Defensive**: Reduce exposure on rallies *Range Trading**: $3,000-$3,500 likely range *Sector Rotation**: Into risk assets *Patience**: Wait for re-entry opportunities * **Scenario 3: Monetary Policy Shift (25% Probability)** *# Fed Policy Pivot *Rate Cuts**: Economic weakness forces dovishness *QE Resumption**: Financial stability concerns *Currency Debasement**: Competitive devaluation *# Gold Implications *Target**: $4,000-$5,000 (Currency debasement premium) *Real Rates**: Negative territory supportive *Dollar Weakness**: Gold strength in all currencies *Central Banks**: Accelerated accumulation *# Strategy Framework *Maximum Allocation**: Full position sizing *Long Duration**: Multi-month holding period *Currency Hedging**: International exposure *Physical Allocation**: Consider direct ownership * **Scenario 4: Status Quo (15% Probability)** *# Stable Environment *Contained Conflicts**: No major escalation/resolution *Fed Patience**: Data-dependent gradualism *Trade Stability**: Managed tensions *# Gold Behavior *Range**: $3,200-$3,600 consolidation *Central Bank Support**: Continued accumulation *Seasonal Patterns**: Q4 strength likely *Volatility**: Moderate, tradeable ranges *# Tactical Approach *Range Trading**: Buy support, sell resistance *Time Decay**: Options selling strategies *Correlation Trading**: Relative value opportunities *Scalping**: Intraday opportunity focus --- # ⚠️ COMPREHENSIVE RISK MANAGEMENT * **Geopolitical Risk Framework** *# News Flow Monitoring *Real-time Sources**: Reuters, Bloomberg, social media *Official Channels**: Government communications *Military Developments**: Defense department updates *Economic Policy**: Central bank communications *# Position Sizing Adaptation *High Tension**: 150-200% normal allocation (safe haven) *Moderate Risk**: 100-150% normal size *Low Risk**: 75-100% standard allocation *Resolution Risk**: 25-50% defensive sizing * **Technical Risk Management** *# Stop Loss Framework *Trend Following**: ATR-based stops *Support/Resistance**: Technical level stops *Time-Based**: Intraday management *News-Driven**: Wider stops during events *# Profit Management *Scale Out**: Systematic profit taking *Trailing Stops**: Protect gains *Re-entry**: Pullback accumulation *Long-term Holdings**: Strategic core position * **Correlation Management** *# Cross-Asset Relationships *Dollar Index**: Primary inverse correlation *Real Rates**: Negative correlation key *Risk Assets**: Safe-haven inverse relationship *Commodities**: Energy correlation during crises *# Portfolio Context *Hedging**: Against equity exposure *Diversification**: Currency debasement protection *Insurance**: Geopolitical risk premium *Speculation**: Technical momentum trading --- # 📊 PERFORMANCE TRACKING FRAMEWORK * **Trade Quality Assessment** *# Setup Classification *A-Grade**: Multiple theory convergence (>80% win rate) *B-Grade**: Strong technical setup (65-75% win rate) *C-Grade**: Moderate conviction (50-60% win rate) *Avoid D-Grade**: Weak setup quality *# Risk-Adjusted Returns *Sharpe Ratio**: Risk-adjusted performance *Maximum Drawdown**: Peak-to-trough losses *Profit Factor**: Gross profit/gross loss *Win Rate**: Percentage successful trades * **Market Regime Recognition** *# Bull Market Characteristics *Central Bank Buying**: Continuous accumulation *Geopolitical Premium**: Safe-haven flows *Currency Debasement**: Monetary policy impact *Technical Strength**: Higher highs/lows pattern *# Correction Signs *Volume Divergence**: Institutional selling *Geopolitical Resolution**: Risk-on rotation *Fed Hawkishness**: Rate hike cycles *Technical Breakdown**: Key support failure --- # 🚨 CRITICAL DECISION POINTS * **Immediate Technical Triggers (24-48 Hours)** *# Bullish Catalysts *$3,395 Break**: Acceleration to $3,500+ *Volume Surge**: >200% average confirms breakout *Geopolitical Escalation**: Safe-haven premium spike *# Bearish Warnings *$3,320 Break**: Correction to $3,200-$3,250 *Volume Divergence**: Distribution signals *Risk-On Flows**: Geopolitical resolution * **Weekly Watchpoints** *# Elliott Wave Validation *Above $3,450**: Wave extension continuing *Below $3,280**: Correction wave beginning *Central Bank Activity**: Official sector buying *# Geopolitical Developments *Conflict Escalation**: Maximum safe-haven demand *Diplomatic Progress**: Risk-on headwinds *Fed Communications**: Policy trajectory impact * **Monthly Considerations** *# Seasonal Factors *Q4 Strength**: Historical gold performance *Election Cycle**: Political uncertainty premium *Year-End**: Institutional rebalancing *# Structural Themes *Central Bank Accumulation**: Continued demand *Currency Wars**: Competitive debasement *Debt Sustainability**: Fiscal crisis potential --- # 🎯 STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK SUMMARY * **Base Case (Geopolitical Uncertainty - 40%)** *Range**: $3,200-$3,600 for 2-4 months *Strategy**: Range trading with long bias *Central Banks**: Continued accumulation support * **Bull Case (Escalation/Debasement - 35%)** *Target**: $3,800-$4,200 by Q1 2026 *Strategy**: Maximum allocation, momentum following *Catalysts**: Conflict escalation, Fed dovishness * **Bear Case (Resolution/Hawkishness - 25%)** *Target**: $2,800-$3,200 correction *Strategy**: Defensive positioning, range trading *Timeline**: 2-6 months consolidation --- **⚡ EXECUTION PRIORITY**: XAUUSD at $3,371.95 represents exceptional fundamental and technical positioning. Central bank accumulation provides structural support while geopolitical uncertainty creates tactical opportunities. Favor long bias with systematic profit-taking, using pullbacks to $3,320-$3,350 for accumulation. Monitor geopolitical developments and Fed communications as primary market drivers. The convergence of safe-haven demand, currency debasement concerns, and technical momentum creates compelling long-term bullish framework despite near-term consolidation potential. For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya dot Trade.(world wide web shunya dot trade) I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work. Regards, Shunya.Trade world wide web shunya dot trade ⚠️ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by sunya
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Quick follow up update on our 1H chart idea: After completing both our Bullish target at 3352 and Bearish target at 3327, we saw a lock below 3327 which opened the swing range down towards 3304. Price did drop, but not the full test of 3304 before turning back up. From there, we got the break back above 3327 and another retest of 3352. As expected, price rejected perfectly from 3352, came back down to 3327, and once again gave us a bounce. Now price is heading back up towards 3352. At the moment, price is clearly rangebound between 3327 and 3352. To confirm the next breakout move, we will need to see the EMA5 cross and lock above or below either of these levels. We also need to keep in mind the swing range gap left open yesterday in the 3304 region, which remains a possible target before higher moves continue. So while we continue to buy dips, we must stay mindful that open swing ranges can extend moves further in either direction. Our updated levels and weighted levels allow us to track moves down and then catch the bounces up, as we’ve been doing. We will continue to buy dips from our support levels, targeting 20 to 40 pips per bounce. As stated before, every level structure we share gives that range consistently, and the swing ranges give even bigger moves than the weighted levels. BULLISH TARGET 3352 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3352 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3374 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3374 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3398 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3398 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3422 BEARISH TARGETS 3327 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3327 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3304 3281 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
9
XAUUSD (Gold) Trading Plan – H4 Timeframe📅 Period: Final Week of August 2025 📊 Strategy: Pattern Continuation/Breakout + Stochastic Divergence Confirmation 📌 Key Focus: Monitoring Pennant Formation with Stochastic Divergence 🧠 Market Outlook (H4) Gold has been consolidating into a pennant formation after strong directional moves earlier in the month. The pennant shows tightening price action, reflecting indecision between bulls and bears as price compresses into a narrower zone. The final week of August may provide a breakout, but instead of guessing direction, the plan focuses on: Watching Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) for divergence signals. Using divergence as confirmation that price is preparing for either a false break retracement or a strong breakout continuation. This gives an edge in timing entries within the pennant, instead of chasing random breakouts. 🔍 Why Stochastic Divergence? Stoch Divergence happens when price forms higher highs/lower lows but the Stochastic indicator fails to confirm the same movement. In a pennant, divergence is especially valuable because: It signals weakening momentum inside consolidation. It helps identify if the breakout is true continuation or potential reversal fake-out. It gives traders a low-risk entry point by confirming shifts in market strength. 📊 Execution Plan (Step-by-Step) 1️⃣ Identify Pennant Boundaries Upper trendline resistance ~3380–3385 region. Lower trendline support ~3340–3345 region. Price must stay inside this range until breakout. 2️⃣ Wait for Stoch Divergence Signals inside Pennant Bullish Divergence: Price makes lower lows near pennant support (~3340), but Stoch makes higher lows → Signal of potential bullish reversal. Bearish Divergence: Price makes higher highs near pennant resistance (~3380), but Stoch makes lower highs → Signal of potential bearish reversal. 👉 Only act after divergence confirmation with a supportive candlestick pattern (engulfing, pin bar, or strong rejection wick). 3️⃣ Trading Scenarios 📉 Scenario A – Bearish Setup Trigger: Price tests pennant top near 3375–3380 with bearish divergence on Stoch. Entry: Sell after confirmation candle closes red. Targets: TP1: 3352 (first support inside pennant). TP2: 3335 (major support zone). TP3: 3318 (measured pennant breakdown target). Stop Loss: Above 3386 (beyond pennant top). 📈 Scenario B – Bullish Setup Trigger: Price tests pennant bottom near 3340–3345 with bullish divergence on Stoch. Entry: Buy after confirmation candle closes green. Targets: TP1: 3366 (mid pennant resistance). TP2: 3380 (pennant top). TP3: 3394 (measured breakout extension if bulls dominate). Stop Loss: Below 3332 (beyond pennant bottom). 4️⃣ Pennant Breakout Confirmation (End of Week Setup) If divergence signals are respected and price finally breaks out of pennant, follow-through trades can be taken in breakout direction. Continuation Rule: Only trade breakout if H4 candle closes outside pennant zone with strong volume. Invalidation Rule: If breakout is weak and re-enters pennant, stay flat until new divergence appears. 📑 Summary Table Setup Type Divergence Type Entry Zone Targets Stop Loss Notes Bearish Bearish Stoch Divergence 3375–3380 3352 / 3335 / 3318 3386+ Look for rejection at pennant resistance Bullish Bullish Stoch Divergence 3340–3345 3366 / 3380 / 3394 3332– Look for defense at pennant support Breakout Strong Close Outside Pennant Above 3385 or Below 3340 Measured move targets Structure invalidation Only trade confirmed breakout ⚠️ Risk & Trade Management Limit risk per trade: 1% of account equity. Scale out profits progressively at each target. Always move SL to breakeven after TP1 is hit. Avoid overtrading inside the pennant if no divergence signals appear. 🧭 Final Week Outlook (H4) Expect choppy price action early in the week as gold tests pennant edges. Midweek: Divergence setups more likely to show as momentum weakens. End-week: A decisive breakout is expected; divergence signals will help confirm if the move is real or a trap. Patience is key — best trades will come only when Stoch divergence aligns with pennant rejection. ✅ This plan now combines H4 market structure (Pennant) with Stochastic Divergence for precise confirmation, making it a clear rule-based strategy for the final week of August.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khairambo
2
XAU/USD | Gold Hits Double Targets – Is Another Drop on the Way?Based on the 4-hour gold chart, we can see that the price was strongly rejected from the $3348 zone, exactly as anticipated, and dropped to $3321—successfully hitting both targets at $3334 and $3324, delivering over 250 pips of profit! Currently, gold is trading around $3328, and I expect another bearish wave to follow soon. The next downside targets are $3318, $3311, and $3301. This analysis will be updated shortly! Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me ! Best Regards , Arman Shaban
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by ArmanShabanTrading
16
Rebuilding Confidence After LossesSomething that losses can really impact is our confidence. After a loss or a losing streak, it’s so easy to get caught up in self-criticism and doubt. Closing yet another red trade can feel crushing. Frustration, discouragement, even sadness… it all piles up. Suddenly, you don’t feel motivated to step back into the market. You start questioning your skills, your edge, maybe even yourself. We hope that one day we’ll wake up feeling positive and confident. We wait for motivation to magically return. We wait for confidence to “show up.”
 But here’s the truth: confidence isn’t a feeling you wait for. 👉 Real confidence comes from taking action—even when you feel doubt. 
👉 It’s about trusting yourself enough to follow your process, even with nerves and self-criticism whispering in the background. It’s about trusting yourself to do what’s important in your trading. To reconnect with how you want to show up as a trader. Because research is clear: taking steps toward what matters (your process, your long-term trading success) is what quiets the inner critic.
 Not affirmations. Not waiting for the “right mood.” The best way to get your motivation back after losses is to move. One step. One action. Back toward your process. Ask yourself: 👉How do I want to show up as a trader? 👉How can I act in line with my strategy today? 👉How do I want to look back on my trading journey? It won’t always feel great in the moment. But small, consistent steps create the positive spiral you need. And maybe one day, you’ll be proud that you kept going—not because you felt confident, but because you acted with courage despite the doubt. 💡 Pro tip:
 After a losing streak, give yourself space to reset. Then choose one step—just one—that aligns with the trader you want to be. That’s how you rebuild. Happy compassionate trading! 💙 / Tina the Trading Psychologist
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Tina_TradingPsychologist
Gold preserves #3,352.80 benchmark as expectedTechnical analysis: Gold is pricing in strong downswing, mostly below it’s Daily chart’s Support now turned in Resistance (Xau-Usd Spot prices at #3,342.80), which Technically leans more to the Bearish side. Investors are waiting for core economic catalysts, besides today’s semi-Bearish session, as Bond Yields far from crisis (seen last fractal) arises and comfort Sellers in their intent, as Gold is following as well Bond Yields movements for #6-consecutive sessions now. DX is Trading again on the same pattern (many similarities with standard fractal started on March #28), creating High’s which are later Sold, which local High’s can turn Gold even Lower (especially since the equities are posting a strong rally), but that hasn't happened so far, leading me to believe that the DX weighs more on Gold than Bond Yields at the moment, and which is main correlating asset is answer which is not easy to give. Hence, as discussed, keep track of the DX to make Short-term entries on Gold, as the Medium-term remains Bearish (solid Descending Channel on the Daily chart should form once Price-action kickstarts the #4th decline). In my opinion, #3,322.80 should be tested and aggressively invalidated on one hit / try and should deliver additional Selling entry towards #3,300.80 psychological benchmark / however on the other side, #3,352.80 benchmark presents strong Resistance zone (far away) from current Bearish variance and as I mentioned many times throughout my recent remarks, as long as Gold is not closing the market above #3,352.80 benchmark, Gold will remain under pressure. My position: I am Selling every High's on Gold lately and Bought #3,322.80 - #3,327.80 local Bottom many times throughout yesterday's session. My practical suggestion is to continue Trading the Neutral Rectangle as long as it lasts #3,322.80 - #3,348.80.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by goldenBear88
1
Is Gold Losing Its Luster or Preparing to Shine Again?XAUUSD has been respecting a broad ascending channel for months, with clear touches on both resistance and support levels. Recently, however, price slipped into a smaller bearish channel inside the larger structure. 📉 The short-term bias remains bearish as long as price trades within the red channel. 📊 Key support lies near the $3,280 zone — a critical level where bulls might attempt to step in. 💡 A breakout from the bearish channel could open the way for another retest of the upper resistance zone, while failure to hold support may trigger deeper corrections. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by TheSignalyst
5
Gold preserves #3,352.80 benchmark as expectedTechnical analysis: Gold is pricing in strong downswing, mostly below it’s Daily chart’s Support now turned in Resistance (Xau-Usd Spot prices at #3,342.80), which Technically leans more to the Bearish side. Investors are waiting for core economic catalysts, besides today’s semi-Bearish session, as Bond Yields far from crisis (seen last fractal) arises and comfort Sellers in their intent, as Gold is following as well Bond Yields movements for #6-consecutive sessions now. DX is Trading again on the same pattern (many similarities with standard fractal started on March #28), creating High’s which are later Sold, which local High’s can turn Gold even Lower (especially since the equities are posting a strong rally), but that hasn't happened so far, leading me to believe that the DX weighs more on Gold than Bond Yields at the moment, and which is main correlating asset is answer which is not easy to give. Hence, as discussed, keep track of the DX to make Short-term entries on Gold, as the Medium-term remains Bearish (solid Descending Channel on the Daily chart should form once Price-action kickstarts the #4th decline). In my opinion, #3,322.80 should be tested and aggressively invalidated on one hit / try and should deliver additional Selling entry towards #3,300.80 psychological benchmark / however on the other side, #3,352.80 benchmark presents strong Resistance zone (far away) from current Bearish variance and as I mentioned many times throughout my recent remarks, as long as Gold is not closing the market above #3,352.80 benchmark, Gold will remain under pressure. My position: I am Selling every High's on Gold lately and Bought #3,322.80 - #3,327.80 local Bottom many times throughout yesterday's session. My practical suggestion is to continue Trading the Neutral Rectangle as long as it lasts #3,322.80 - #3,348.80.
TVC:GOLDShort
by goldenBear88
Bullish bounce?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance, which acts as a pullback resistance. Pivot: 3,307.62 1st Support: 3,267.80 1st Resistance: 3,350.96 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ICmarkets
August 22nd Latest Gold Trend Analysis and Strategy: I. Current Market Status and Key Views Overall: Market is fluctuating within a wide range at a high level. Despite a strong rebound, no effective trend reversal has occurred, and the market remains in a consolidation pattern of bullish and bearish fluctuations. Key Watershed: The 3350-3356 area is a key resistance level for determining whether the market can continue its upward trend and break out of the range-bound fluctuations. Until this area is effectively broken through and stabilized, the market will remain volatile. Trading Strategy: Avoid chasing gains and selling losses; adopt a volatile strategy of selling high and buying low. II. Technical Analysis Highlights 1-Hour Chart: A V-shaped rebound has occurred after bottoming out. Two large bullish candlesticks have almost recovered the previous losses, indicating strong buying support below. However, the price is currently approaching the upper limit of the range again. Daily level: Closed with a large positive line, but the overall market is still running within the oscillation box. Subsequent K-line confirmation is needed. III. Key Support and Resistance Levels Upper Resistance: Short-term Resistance: 3350-3356 Strong Resistance/Target: 3365-3375 Lower Support: Short-term Support/Bull-Short Turnaround Point: 3332 (Daily support, key to maintaining the upward trend) Strong Support/Buy Zone: 3320-3310 (Low point, ideal entry point for long orders) IV. Today's Trading Strategy Core Concept: Focus on long positions on pullbacks. Long Strategy (Pullback Long): Ideal Entry Zone: 3320-3310. Stop-loss: Below 3305. Target: 3340-3350; if it breaks through 3356, it could reach 3365-3375. Short Strategy (Rebound High): Ideal Entry Area: Upon a rebound to the 3365-3375 area, if stagflation signals (such as an upper shadow or engulfing candlestick) appear. Stop-Loss: Upon a breakout above 3380. Target: 3340-3330. Aggressive Strategy: If the price continues to consolidate above the 3332 support level during the Asian and European sessions, consider a short-term buy strategy with a small position, setting a stop-loss below 3325 and targeting around 3350. V. Risk Warnings and Precautions Beware of market whipsaws: The market has been volatile and volatile recently, so be wary of false breakouts and whipsaws. Never chase longs after a surge or shorts after a sharp drop. Key break: If the price effectively falls below the 3310-3300 support, it may open up downside space and the long strategy needs to be suspended. Effective breakthrough: If the price breaks through strongly and stabilizes above 3356, the market is expected to rise further. The short-selling strategy needs to be suspended, and long orders can be followed up. Summary: Gold is still in a volatile pattern. In terms of operation, we should remain patient, look for high-probability trading opportunities near key support and resistance levels, and strictly control risks.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FX_Gold_Mastermind
THE KOG REPORT - Jackson Hole Pt 2Jackson Hole 2025: Here’s what to expect from the 2025 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, held August 21–23 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming: Event Overview & Theme • The 48th annual symposium is hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City from August 21 to 23, 2025. • The theme is “Labour Markets in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy.” It focuses on structural changes like aging populations, fertility declines, declining labour mobility, and the evolving role of AI in labour markets. • The full agenda will be released on Thursday evening, August 21, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech scheduled for Friday morning (U.S. time): 10 a.m. EDT / 8 a.m. MDT. Key Participants & Format • A select group of around 120 invitees will attend, including central bankers, policymakers, academics, and journalists. • Formats include research paper presentations, panels, Q&As, and the keynote address. All presentations and transcripts will be published online during and after the event What to Watch For 1. Powell’s Speech & Policy Signals Powell’s keynote—titled "Economic Outlook and Framework Review"—is expected to outline possible interest-rate decisions, update the Federal Reserve’s policy framework, and respond to critiques that its 2020 approach delayed necessary responses to inflation. This is likely one of his most consequential speeches, delivered amid mounting political pressure, internal Fed disagreements, and a contested labour market environment. 2. Global Central Bankers & International Engagement Notable international participants include ECB President Christine Lagarde and likely the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey, expected to join panels on Saturday. Their contributions will underscore the symposium’s global reach and offer comparative perspectives on monetary policy challenges. 3. Market Expectations & Reactions Markets anticipate a 25 basis-point rate cut in September, with several sources placing the probability at ~85%. Simultaneously, investor caution is elevated due to geopolitical tensions—especially around Trump’s influence, Ukraine talks, and tech policy developments. 4. Broader Economic Context The symposium takes place amid mixed U.S. data: weak job growth and rising producer prices raise concerns about both slowing labour markets and persistent inflation. Retail earnings (e.g. Target, Walmart, Home Depot) and recent CPI data also add to the backdrop, offering clues on consumer resilience and inflation trends. GOLD: Based on the back test of the event they tend to test the low of the range which in this scenario is around the 3280-90 region, however, if we look at the structure we do have a reversal in play here with the support level being the 3330-25 level. Above 3330 we have that extension of the move we spoke about last week 3360-65 which is still untouched. So, if we that in mind and they support that lower level in the coming session, there is a possibility they take us up into that region sitting around 3360-75 due to the volume that is expected, and if rejected they correct that move downside to again attempt to break through the 3300 level. The key level in this scenario is 3375 which needs to be broken to go higher taking us above 3400. On the flip. 3330-20 breaks forcefully, in this scenario there is possibility that for price to attempt the range low sitting around the 3280 level which needs to hold in order to go back up. Please note, an aggressive swing here can break through that level resulting in a move all the way back down into the 3230-50 levels before then exhausting. The range is huge and where we’ve seen 500-700pip movement over the years, we’re seeing over a couple of days lately, so we need to exaggerate every move and only look at the extreme levels. RED BOX TARGETS: Break above 3350 for 3360, 3365, 3374, 3390 and 3420 in extension of the move Break below 3335 for 3320, 3310, 3305, 3297, 3280 and 3265 in extension of the move What we’re trying to show you here is that its going to be a very difficult event to trade for new traders. Its going to be choppy, its going to be volatile, its going to whipsaw and its likely to move. If you’re caught the wrong side of it its going to kill your account. Best practice here is to let the market make the moves it wants to, wait for the price to settle in whatever level they want to drive it to, once this has happened then look for the setup to get in to the trade. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated. As always, trade safe. KOG The link below will take you to the previous report on this event:
FX:XAUUSD
by KnightsofGold
26