Trade ideas
Gold Breaking $4200 : Intra-Day Analysis 15-Oct-25
Several Fundamental factors have been supporting Gold bullish momentum, starting Central banks purchases, Hedging against USD, Market expectations of rate cut, US Debt fear, and Trade war tensions.
These factors are leading Gold to print new historical highs on Weekly and sometimes on Daily basis.
In this video, we breakdown the technical and the areas of interest to focus on.
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GOLD (XAUUSD): New ATH & Next Resistances
As I predicted, Gold updated the ATH this morning.
The next strong resistances that I see are:
Resistance 1: 4098 - 4103 area
Resistance 2: 4148 - 4153 area
Get ready for more growth.
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Gold 1H – Slight Correction or Bullish Reaccumulation Ahead?XAUUSD – Intraday Trading Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader
📈 Market Context
Gold extends its rebound near $4 250 as traders weigh the recent uptick in U.S. Treasury yields against growing expectations of a softer Federal Reserve stance.
After the latest mixed U.S. economic data, markets are leaning toward a mildly dovish outlook — rate-cut bets for early 2026 are gaining traction, while the dollar remains steady.
Today’s focus centers on U.S. housing-starts and jobless-claims data, which could steer short-term volatility.
A stronger-than-expected report may trigger temporary selling pressure on gold, while weaker figures could revive safe-haven demand and extend the rally toward $4 380 +.
Expect liquidity hunts before any clear directional move, as institutional players refine positions near the week’s range extremes.
🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Style)
• Market structure remains bullish, with previous Breaks of Structure (BOS) confirming continuation after the earlier accumulation phase.
• A short-term Change of Character (ChoCH) signals corrective movement — likely a liquidity sweep before the next bullish leg.
• Liquidity resting below $4 200 has already been taken, aligning with the discount zone around $4 196 – $4 198.
• A potential re-accumulation is forming; buyers may look for confirmation (M15 BOS/ChoCH) inside this demand zone.
• Upside liquidity targets cluster near $4 375 – $4 380, coinciding with a premium supply zone where sellers might re-enter.
🔴 Sell Setup
Entry: 4378 – 4376
Stop-Loss: 4386
Take-Profit Targets: 4325 → 4260
🟢 Buy Setup
Entry: 4196 – 4198
Stop-Loss: 4190
Take-Profit Targets: 4250 → 4370 → 4380 +
⚠️ Risk Management Tips
• Wait for lower-timeframe BOS/ChoCH confirmation before execution.
• Be cautious around U.S. macro data releases — spreads and volatility can widen temporarily.
• Use partial take-profits at nearby liquidity zones and trail stops once market structure confirms continuation.
✅ Summary
Gold maintains its bullish bias above $4 200 after sweeping liquidity.
A short-term correction could retest $4 196 – $4 198 for fresh buy entries, while the broader trend remains upward.
Only a clean structural break below $4 190 would invalidate the bullish continuation scenario.
FOLLOW RYAN FOR MORE USEFUL TRADING IDEAS!!!
GOLD (XAU/USD): Important BreakoutThe price of 📈GOLD has broken and closed above a significant resistance level, coinciding with a previous all-time high.
A confirmed break of structure suggests a strong likelihood of further upward movement.
The subsequent resistance level is at the 4100 psychological level
This might be the next target for buyers
Gold (XAU/USD) – Intraday AnalysisGold continues to move inside a well-defined ascending channel, with price currently testing the upper boundary near 4145 – 4150. The bullish momentum has remained consistent since the recent rebound from the midline support zone around 3980 – 4000, supported by higher highs and higher lows across the 1H timeframe.
Technical Outlook
Trend: Strong bullish momentum within ascending channel
Support zone: 4090 – 4085
Resistance zone: 4215 – 4220
EMA confluence: 20 EMA remains below price action, acting as dynamic support
RSI: Approaching overbought levels (>70), signaling potential short-term exhaustion
Trading Strategy
If the price sustains above 4140, short-term buyers may aim for 4215 – 4220 as the next resistance target. However, failure to break cleanly above 4150 could trigger a corrective pullback toward 4090 – 4100, where fresh buy setups may appear along the lower channel line.
Buy Zone: 4090 – 4100
Stop Loss: 4080
Take Profit: 4215 – 4220 (partial), open above breakout
Market Sentiment
The bullish structure remains intact as long as gold trades within the channel. Traders should watch for a breakout above 4220 for confirmation of continued upside, or a channel breakdown below 4080 to confirm short-term reversal pressure.
Gold remains fundamentally supported by inflation expectations and global risk aversion, keeping the medium-term bias bullish.
Note: Monitor price reaction around 4150 — a decisive breakout could extend momentum sharply, while rejection may trigger temporary consolidation.
If you find this setup valuable, follow for more daily gold trading strategies.
GOLD PENDING SELL - Day 9 WIthdrawal ChallengeGOLD PENDING SELL - Day 9 WIthdrawal Challenge
A+ Setup
same setup as usual breakout of zone waiting for retracement and closure back in to zone
Entry: 4233.50
2 Tps (yellow lines)
1st TP set SL to breakeven and take partials
Once again today could be the last day of the challenge
use proper risk managment as once again gold keeps making ATHs over extending our zones
Did you capitalize on yesterday's pullback in gold?
Gold has been hitting new highs recently, which is nothing new. While bulls are constantly hitting new highs, we must be wary of technical pullbacks. Yesterday, during the Asian session, I warned my friends not to chase long positions at high levels, fearing the risk of a sharp pullback. Sure enough, gold experienced a sharp unilateral pullback, falling from around 4179.6 to 4090, a drop of nearly $90. Yesterday, we bought at 4105-4110 and added to our long positions at 4096-4100. Gold rebounded immediately after hitting 4090, a perfect buy for the bulls. Gold opened today, repeating yesterday's trend. However, be careful not to chase long positions at high levels, and be wary of a sharp technical pullback. Wait for a pullback and stabilization before entering long positions. This is the only way to ensure a safe bet. Everyone must pay attention to risk control in their trading. If your current trading is not ideal, I hope my article can help you avoid investment pitfalls. Feel free to discuss your options!
Looking at the 4-hour market trend, the short-term support at 4136-4142 is currently underway, with a focus on the key support level of 4076-80. The bullish rally is strong and there's no end in sight. Trading strategies should prioritize buying on pullbacks. In the intermediate range, be cautious and cautious in following orders, patiently waiting for key entry points. I'll provide detailed trading strategies during the trading session, so please stay tuned.
Go long on gold with a light position at 4136-4142, and add to your position when it falls back to 4113-4122. The target is 4195-4200, and continue to hold if it breaks through!
Watch Out, Gold Bulls Are Preparing for a Powerful CounterattackAfter Friday's nearly $200 drop, our primary concern is shifting market sentiment. To be honest, after experiencing such a deep drop, it is understandable that the market has obvious differences, but if it continues to fall today or there are obvious signs of selling, it may indicate that this round of brilliant rise may have reached its peak in the short term!
We can see gold showing clear signs of a rebound after touching around 4186. However, with bullish confidence severely impacted, a short-term recovery may be difficult and will require some time to build momentum. Based on the current market structure, after a top-to-bottom reversal, resistance is clearly located between 4280 and 4300, with the starting point acting as the key resistance level. Failure to break above this area in the short term could lead to short-term weakness in the gold market.
If gold doesn't show clear signs of selling in the short term, the overall trend will remain volatile. Bulls may rely on the 4200-4190 and 4160-4150 levels for effective counterattacks. These two areas are crucial for bulls!
The short-term trading strategy is clear:
1. If gold retreats to the 4200-4190 area, consider going long on gold and setting a protective cover.
2. If gold continues to retreat to the 4160-4150 area, reconsider going long on gold and setting a protective cover.
3. If gold rebounds to the 4280-4300 resistance area, consider going short on gold.
Gold continues to go longAfter hitting a record high of $4,179.47 per ounce on Tuesday, gold prices retreated sharply, currently fluctuating around $4,130. This pullback was primarily driven by two factors: first, Trump's shift in tariff stance boosted market risk appetite and weakened safe-haven demand; second, a technical rebound in the US dollar prompted profit-taking in gold, which was already heavily overbought. However, market expectations of two Federal Reserve rate cuts this year have limited the dollar's upside. Coupled with ongoing US political uncertainty, trade tensions, and geopolitical conflict risks, gold's safe-haven status remains solid, and downside is expected to be limited.
From a technical perspective, gold closed with another large bullish candlestick on the daily chart, demonstrating strong bullish momentum.
Today's pullback low near $4090 has become key support, and 4090 could be considered a near-term bull-bear watershed. Trading strategies recommend buying on dips following pullbacks.
Gold Recommendation: Buy lightly at the current price of 4129, and add to your long position if the price dips to 4118-4112. Stop loss at 4000, target at 4170.
Gold Targeting #4,100.80 - #4,200.80 ahead of #4,500.80 markAs discussed throughout my last week's commentary: 'Technical analysis: Gold reversed on Intra-day basis (even though DX is Trading near multi-session High’s, from now on / main correlation for the fractal) as Price-action was isolated within Neutral Rectangle which has Lower High's / High's - Low's. As I've mentioned before, current slide was nothing more but sweep to cool down Overbought levels however not discontinuation of Ascending Channel on bigger charts.. Hourly 4 chart's timeframe should turn green any minute now and as long as Price-action meets strong Support near #4,000.80 psychological benchmark which is showcasing strong rejection point, I expect test-and-break of the #4,052.80 - #4,057.80 zone which can extend Buying sequence widely above #4,100.80 psychological benchmark, preserving trendline on Hourly 4 chart which is Supporting the uptrend and rejecting every downside attempt since late September / early October fractal. It is worth noting that if #4,052.80 - #4,057.80 Short-term Resistance zone rejects current recovery attempt, #3rd Top on mentioned belt which is guarding the upside will be formed as Gold will be isolated within #2 strong trendlines until one of the levels break and delivers major move on the aftermath (I lean to the Bullish side as well).'
My position: I have been Buying Gold throughout Friday's session all along and Buying Gold firstly in #3,972.80 - #3,992.80 Neutral Rectangle waiting for the break-out to the upside. I had reached my Buying Profit Intra-day quota within the belt and started my usual Medium-term Buy orders positioning. I have Bought Gold (Medium-term) on #3,992.80 Support for the fractal as Gold was unable to break above #4,022.80 Resistance however my Stop was triggered on #3,985.80. I Bought Gold again on #3,978.80 again with #3,962.80 Stop and over the weekend / this morning my #4,042.80 Take Profit is hit, confirming my thesis that Traders shouldn't Sell Gold at all cost and turn to Buying this market. Each Selling momentum is just another sweep before Buyers arise and take Gold on upper levels. I do expect #4,100.80 benchmark to be met within #1 - #2 week horizon before #4,200.80 which is posing as my Medium-term Target. I achieved my weekly Profit and will take it easy from now.
Gold: Keep an eye on the 4280–4300 rangeAs we predicted for today’s target range, gold is currently fluctuating between 4230 and 4250. After stabilizing above 4230, it once again staged a strong rally, peaking at 4250.91 before pulling back with a certain decline — this also confirms the resistance effect at the 4250 level today.
However, we confirm that a break above 4250 can be achieved in an instant. After breaking through and stabilizing above 4250 next, we will focus on the resistance zone around 4280–4300. For short-term support below, the key focus remains on the range of 4200–4175.
10.15 Wednesday Gold Trading Strategy:
I. Core Fundamental Drivers
Monetary Policy Support
Fed Chair Powell signaled a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in October, with market expectations of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut within the year. This lowers the opportunity cost of holding gold and boosts gold prices.
Geopolitical Risks Escalate
Middle East Situation: The Gaza ceasefire agreement faces obstacles, Israel takes new actions, and regional tensions persist.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Ukraine attacks oil facilities in Crimea, with the U.S. accused of involvement in planning, escalating the risk of confrontation.
U.S. Government Shutdown: The shutdown has lasted for several days, raising concerns about economic stability and debt issues.
Safe-Haven Demand Strengthens
The U.S. may suspend edible oil trade with Asian countries, fueling concerns about global trade friction and enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Capital Flow Support
Global central banks (e.g., the People's Bank of China has increased holdings for 11 consecutive months) and SPDR Gold ETF holdings continue to rise, providing long-term buying support.
II. Overall Market Outlook
Dual-Driven Trend: Safe-haven demand (geopolitical conflicts, shutdown, trade friction) and expectations of monetary policy easing jointly drive gold prices higher.
Technical Warning: The current RSI is overbought (>80), with sharp intraday fluctuations (e.g., a $90 pullback yesterday followed by a quick rebound). Caution is needed against technical corrections triggered by sudden news.
III. Key Price Levels
Resistance Zone
$4180-4190 (initial resistance)
$4200 (psychological barrier)
$4230-4250 (strong resistance)
Support Zone
$4150-4160 (initial intraday support)
$4120-4130 (strong support for pullbacks)
$4080-4100 (key trend support)
IV. Specific Trading Strategies
Primary Strategy: Buy on Pullbacks (Trend Following)
Entry Timing: Staggered positions when gold prices pull back to the $4150-4160 range.
Stop-Loss Setting: Below $4140 (to prevent false breakouts).
Targets:
First target: $4180 (partial profit-taking);
If broken, aim for $4200 and above.
Secondary Strategy: Short at Resistance (Counter-Trend Play)
Entry Condition: Gold prices first touch $4190-4200 and show clear signs of pressure (e.g., long upper wicks, weakening minute charts).
Stop-Loss Setting: Strictly above $4200.
Target: Look for a pullback to around $4150 (quick in-and-out).
V. Risk Warnings
Sensitive News Period: Focus on speeches by Fed officials, geopolitical developments, and sudden trade policy news, which may trigger instant volatility.
Technical Overbought: RSI is at high levels, guard against technical corrections of $50-80, and exercise caution in position management.
Discipline Execution: Avoid chasing rallies or selling off, set strict stop-losses to prevent sudden reversal risks.
Summary: Intraday strategy primarily focuses on buying on pullbacks, building positions near the $4150-4160 support. If prices rally to the $4190-4200 resistance zone with weakening momentum, light short positions can be considered. Closely monitor the alignment of fundamental events and technical signals, and adjust strategies flexibly.
XAUUSD NEW OUTLOOK According to H1 analysis gold market continuously running in fly pressure from last couple of hours now market will be go more buy and touch the RESISTANCE LEVEL and it will falling and so if you are interested then go short from here is best of you
dont be greedy use money management
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK
REGARD ALBERT
Gold Testing 4,210 Support as Bulls Eye Another Leg HigherHey Traders, in today’s session we’re keeping a close watch on XAUUSD for a potential buying opportunity around the 4,210 zone. Gold continues to trade within a broader uptrend, and the current pullback appears to be a healthy correction toward a key support and resistance confluence at 4,210.
Market structure:
Momentum remains bullish, with price forming higher highs and higher lows. The ongoing correction could provide a trend-continuation entry if buyers step in near support.
Key level:
4,210 — a decisive zone where previous reactions have sparked renewed buying interest.
Outlook:
A sustained bid from this area could pave the way for another push toward 4,300 and beyond, keeping Gold aligned with its dominant bullish trajectory.
Trade safe,
Joe.
XAUUSD — Decline Reaction Not Yet Confirmed as ReversalXAUUSD — Decline Reaction Not Yet Confirmed as Reversal | Favor Buying on Fibonacci Pullbacks 🟡
Summary: The rapid early session decline hasn't broken the upward structure. Gold continues to move within the Fibonacci expansion wave; prioritize buy-the-dip at confluence zones. Sell orders are only for short-term scalping when there's a clear rejection signal.
📊 Technical Analysis (H1)
Structure & Price Behavior
Price is climbing in a stair-step pattern, with recent adjustments not breaching key lows, leaning towards a trend-following pullback.
The chart shows multiple Fib expansion levels (0.618/0.786/1.618/2.618); the 4120–4135 zone is the short-term trading hub, with clusters above at 4160–4188–4179 and further at 4200–4220.
Volume has slightly decreased compared to previous sessions → easier for price to bounce at support before continuing.
Price Zones to Watch
Resistance: 4160–4162, 4179, 4200.
Support: 4116–4118, 4102, 4073, 4062–4065, 4024.
Significance: 4062–4065 coincides with Fib + old resistance (good confluence for buying); 4116–4118 is the nearest retest; 4160–4162 is a sell retest only for scalping.
If 4116–4118 holds and H1 closes above 4130, the probability of retesting 4155/4188 increases.
If 4062–4065 breaks and stays below 4057, the adjustment range may extend to 4024.
📰 Fundamental Factors (Highlights)
Central banks continue to buy gold, supporting foundational demand.
On October 14, gold led the commodity basket this year; expectations of Fed rate cuts in upcoming sessions are the main driver for holding gold.
Gold ETF: attracted an additional ~2 billion USD (~14 tons) last week; YTD cumulative ~68 billion USD, annual demand ~645 tons (second only to the 2020 record).
⇒ The cash flow picture supports a medium-term uptrend, although short-term fluctuations remain around Fib/resistance levels.
🎯 Trading Plan (European–US Session) — if–then
Scenario 1 — BUY near retest (priority)
Entry: 4116–4118
SL: 4110
TP: 4134 → 4155 → 4188 → 4222
Condition: if price retests 4116–4118 and a confirmation candle/bounce appears on H1.
Scenario 2 — BUY at Fib + old resistance (backup)
Entry: 4062–4065
SL: 4057
TP: 4082 → 4098 → 4115 → 4135
Condition: only activate if there's a bounce at 4062–4065; better if reclaiming 4073/4102 thereafter.
Scenario 3 — SELL reaction (scalping)
Entry: 4160–4162
SL: 4168
TP: 4134 → 4118 → 4100 → 4078
Note: only sell when there's a clear rejection signal (long wick/distribution volume); do not chase price.
Invalidation & Risk Management
Losing 4057 → reduces buy priority, wait for new signals at 4024.
Risk only ≤1–2% per trade; adhere to SL first, position later. 🛡️
Summary
Bias: Upward; current decline reaction not yet confirmed as reversal.
Strategy: Prioritize buying at 4116–4118 and 4062–4065; sell only to scalp at 4160–4162 when signaled.
Levels to Watch: 4102 – 4073 – 4024 – 4179 – 4200.
Note: This article is for reference purposes only, not investment advice.
GOLD sets new record amid global risk waveSpot OANDA:XAUUSD continued to break out in the Asian trading session on Thursday morning (October 16), hitting a record high of $4,239.07/ounce, as investors increasingly sought the precious metal as a safe haven from increasingly complex fluctuations in the global economy.
In the previous session, gold closed at $4,207.85/ounce, up $65.94 (equivalent to 1.59%), and continued to increase by more than $25 today. Since the beginning of the week, gold prices have increased by nearly 5%, continuing a strong upward trend since mid-August.
The rise in gold prices comes as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) signals it will maintain its easy monetary policy path. Speaking this week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank is “on track” to cut its benchmark interest rate by another 0.25% later this month, in response to signs of weakening growth and external uncertainty. Lower borrowing costs typically increase the appeal of non-yielding gold compared to bonds and currencies.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump’s latest comments have added to the market’s tension. Responding to a reporter’s question about trade relations with China, Mr. Trump said: “Yes, we are in a trade war right now.”
This statement, quoted by Bloomberg News, has raised concerns about long-term damage to the global economy, a factor that often drives capital flows to safe-haven assets such as gold.
In addition, the risk of a US government shutdown and the “downdraft effect” when investors simultaneously sell bonds and foreign currencies to switch to holding gold and safe-haven assets, further strengthening the precious metal’s price increase.
Strong central bank gold buying has also played a significant role in the rally. Personally, I believe that much of this year’s rally has been “driven by physical demand”, as many central banks “aggressively add to reserves to hedge against sovereign debt risks and expansionary monetary policies”.
So far, gold prices have risen more than 60% in 2025, reflecting a clear shift in global investment thinking, where gold has once again asserted its central role as a source of financial confidence in times of political and monetary uncertainty.
Technical Analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Spot XAUUUSD continues to maintain a strong uptrend, currently trading around $4,239/ounce, up nearly 0.75% on the day and approaching the 0.618 Fibonacci resistance zone at $4,213 – $4,286, corresponding to the top of the short-term rising channel.
Trend Structure
• The medium-term uptrend remains solid, with a series of steadily rising candles and the MA50 maintaining a strong upward slope, reinforcing the bullish momentum.
• The uptrend channel remains effective, with prices currently hovering at the upper boundary of the channel, indicating that the buying momentum is too strong in the short term.
• The RSI remains above 70, indicating a technically overbought state, but there is no clear reversal signal yet; this usually signals a slight correction before the uptrend continues.
Key Technical Zones
• Resistance: 4.286 (0.786 Fib) and 4.378 (100% extension target).
• Support: 4.162 (0.5 Fib), 4.059 (old confluence – dynamic support), further 3.947 (balance).
Intraday Scenario
• The main trend remains bullish, but the risk of a short-term correction increases as prices approach the Fibonacci resistance zone.
• Day traders can wait for a buyback around $4,160 – $4,180, the confluence between the 0.5 Fib and the midline of the rising channel, where bottom-fishing buying is likely to emerge.
• The short-term target is $4,280 – $4,300/oz, corresponding to the upper boundary of the rising channel.
• Technical stop-loss should be placed below $4,050 (psychological support and short-term MA).
Overview
Speculative money still dominates, but the market is showing signs of needing a “technical breather” to consolidate the new price base. In the context of the Fed easing signals and escalating geopolitical tensions, the main uptrend of gold is not yet threatened, but short-term trading should prioritize the strategy of buying on corrections instead of chasing high prices.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4298 - 4296⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4302
→Take Profit 1 4290
↨
→Take Profit 2 4284
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4144 - 4146⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4140
→Take Profit 1 4152
↨
→Take Profit 2 4158
Gold Bulls in Control — Eyes on $4,200 Breakout📰 Key Fundamental Drivers
Gold remains elevated above $4,100/oz, consolidating after recent surges.
Safe-haven demand is strong, supported by persistent U.S.-China tensions and global economic uncertainty.
Market expectations for Fed cuts remain robust, with ~99% chance priced in for October and ~94% for December.
Institutional flows (ETF & central banks) continue to add structural support.
Some caution from Fed officials about inflation and pacing of cuts could moderate upside in the near term.
📈 Technical & Price Structure
Support zones to watch: ~$4,100 → ~$4,050 → ~$4,000
Resistance / upside targets: $4,200 → $4,300 → $4,400+
Gold is in a strong uptrend, but short-term momentum is overextended. A pullback or consolidation is healthy and expected.
If price holds above support, the upside bias remains intact. A break below $4,000 would be an early warning.
🎯 Bias & Trade Strategy
Bias: Bullish overall, with caution in the short term.
Trade ideas:
Buy on pullbacks into support zones (e.g. $4,050–$4,100) with tight stops.
Breakout longs if price decisively clears $4,200.
Scalp / reaction shorts near resistance zones if rejection patterns appear.
Pay attention to upcoming U.S. data, Fed commentary, and any sudden USD strength as risk factors.
⚠️ Risk Note
Risk only 1–2% per trade
Confirm setups with volume/candle patterns
Avoid over-leveraging — gold volatility remains high
📌 For educational purposes only – Trade Smart. Athens
Inverted Head and Shoulders FormingGold has been in a steady downtrend but is now showing signs of a potential bullish reversal.
On the 15-minute chart, an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is forming, with increasing volume near the right shoulder — suggesting buyers are starting to take control.
Price is currently testing a key resistance zone around 4,250–4,270, where the neckline sits.
If price breaks and holds above 4,270, it could confirm the reversal and push toward the 4,310–4,320 area.
If it fails to break, a pullback toward 4,190–4,200 support is possible before another attempt higher.
Trading Plan:
Entry: After breakout and close above 4,270
Targets: 4,310 / 4,320
Stop-Loss: Below 4,186 (right shoulder invalidation)
Pattern: Inverted Head and Shoulders
Bias: Bullish on confirmed breakout