Mission Complete: 4245-4250:Time to Flip Short on Gold!Gold has already reached a high of around 4246, and its upward momentum has relatively weakened. To be honest, under the current market conditions, I do not advocate aggressively chasing gold above 4240, because as gold continues to rise, more and more callback risks are accumulated! We can also see that each surge in gold is followed by a clear pullback. So even if we choose to short gold, we can still get a good profit margin in the short term!
Although gold is on an overall upward trend, I still divide the rising channel into three areas; the first area: 4250-4220; the second area: 4220-4190, and the third area: 4190-4160. As gold rises, the technical traction of the lower area on the gold price becomes stronger. Therefore, according to the first area division, in the short term, gold has the need to at least retreat to the area near 4220. Even after falling below the area near 4220, it may continue the downward trend to the 4220-4190 area.
Therefore, in terms of short-term trading, I would prioritize trying to short gold in the 4245-4255 area, first targeting the short-term retracement area: 4230-4220 as the target.
If you’re following my trading strategy, don’t just watch — prepare your next move.
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Trade ideas
Gold has the potential to set a new highHey everyone, it's Kilian here!
Gold is at a very interesting phase right now. After experiencing a strong price surge within a parallel ascending channel, the market is now showing signs of consolidation at these high levels. This suggests that the buyers still have control, and the bullish momentum remains intact for now.
If the price manages to break through this area with a strong bullish candle and high volume, it will confirm the dominance of the buyers and open up the potential for a new rally towards the target around 4.130, which aligns with the upper boundary of the channel.
However, if the price fails to break through and is instead rejected by strong selling pressure, the appearance of a large bearish candle could signal that the upward momentum is weakening. In this scenario, the price may fall back to test the lower boundary of the channel.
Indicator Trading vs Price Action TradingIn the world of trading, most people start with Indicator Trading , but only those who truly understand the market eventually evolve into Price Action Trading.
These two approaches aren’t enemies — they’re actually two stages in the mindset evolution of a professional trader.
1. Indicator Trading – When You Trade the “Consequences” of Price
Indicators are tools built from historical data.
They measure strength, momentum, and direction of price movements.
For example:
RSI tells you whether the market is overbought or oversold. EMA reflects the average trend. MACD shows the momentum behind the move.
However, the core weakness of indicators lies in their lag.
By the time you see a buy signal, the price has already moved.
If you rely solely on indicators, you’ll always be reacting to the market instead of leading it.
💡 Indicator trading gives you structure and discipline — but sometimes that same structure makes you miss the real rhythm of the market.
2. Price Action Trading – When You Trade the “Story” Behind Price
Price Action requires no indicators.
It teaches you to read the emotions of the market through every candle, every price zone, and every false break.
Here, the market is no longer a series of numbers — it’s a story between buyers and sellers.
When you start to understand:
Why price forms higher lows — showing buyers gaining control.
Why a long wick appears — showing weaker players trying to fight back.
Why a “liquidity grab” happens — showing how smart money traps retail traders.
That’s when you no longer need signals — because you’ve learned to speak the language of price itself.
Price Action teaches you not just to trade with your eyes, but with your mind.
3. The True Essence – It’s Not About Choosing a Side, But Choosing a Perspective
A professional trader doesn’t “hate” indicators nor “worship” price action.
They understand one simple truth:
Indicators are the map — Price Action is the terrain.
A map gives you direction.
But if you only stare at the map without observing the terrain, you’ll fall off a cliff.
And if you only look at the ground without knowing where you’re headed, you’ll get lost.
Gold → Peak or correction? Market forecast for next weekLast Friday, we shorted gold at 3977 and 4000 points. Gold prices fell as low as 3946, and both of our short positions yielded profits. During the US trading session, gold prices rallied again, rising above 4000 points on the back of safe-haven sentiment.
Trade conflicts are volatile. Since Trump took office on January 20th of this year, the tariff issue has fluctuated between intense and easing. Now, the Sino-US tariff trade friction has escalated again, with Trump announcing an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods effective November 1st. This was the main reason for last Friday's rebound.
The key lies in the Federal Reserve's October interest rate cut. While the probability of a 25 basis point cut is as high as 92.4%, the government shutdown has raised concerns that it may be delayed. Furthermore, the Fed minutes revealed that some officials, concerned about a rebound in inflation, oppose further rate cuts.
A brief ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East has eased geopolitical risks, raising concerns about boosting safe-haven demand. Gold prices have risen over 15% in the past two months. While a large number of profit-taking investors remain bullish on future gold prices, they are quick to flee at the slightest sign of trouble, especially during a rapid price drop.
Technically, after a relatively high daily and weekly close, there may be further upward momentum in the coming trading days. A new round of extreme gains followed by a sharp decline cannot be ruled out.
Resistance: 4030, 4058
Support: 4000, 3980
Trading Strategy:
Currently, the market is trading within the broad range of 3944-4058. The direction of the breakout will determine whether this is a correction or a peak. Shorting rallies within this range is the primary strategy. (Specific trading signals will be determined based on intraday trends.)
Next week, I will continue to share my personal trading signals. Wishing everyone gets what they hope for when the market opens tomorrow.
For specific trading decisions, please follow my live updates. I will update my trading ideas and strategies daily. If you don't have a plan or strategy for gold trading and are struggling to achieve consistent profits, you can refer to and follow my updates for guidance and help you avoid mistakes.
Gold Analysis: Will Buyers Push the Price to 4,150?Hello everyone, Kilian here!
XAUUSD is currently trading within a well-defined ascending channel, with price action consistently respecting both the upper and lower boundaries of the channel. This stability indicates that the market is following a sustainable uptrend, and it’s no surprise that investors remain confident in the strength of the buyers.
Price Action and Growth Potential
Recently, price action has clearly shown that buyers are in control. The strong bullish momentum could lead to a significant breakout, potentially breaking through the resistance zone that has been hindering the price's upward movement. If this happens, XAUUSD could continue its uptrend, with a retest of the support level before advancing further.
A successful retest would further strengthen the bullish trend and potentially spark a powerful move toward the 4,150 target, which aligns with the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
Potential Risks and Key Factors to Watch
However, we cannot overlook the possibility that the price might fail to break through the strong resistance zone. If this occurs, it could signal that bullish momentum is weakening. In this case, there might be a retracement, with the next target being the support zone at the lower boundary of the channel.
Tips for Traders
As always, the most important thing in trading is to confirm your setups and manage your risk properly. Whether or not this scenario plays out, being prepared for every situation will help you minimize risks and optimize your profits.
Gold (XAUUSD) Technical AnalysisGold chart analysis:
After a relatively heavy drop on Friday, Gold is currently showing a time-based correction.
In my view, Gold may find a lower point around 4,176 – 4,154.
If it accumulates liquidity in this support zone, a new high could be expected again.
For now, I will wait for this area to consider a long position.
Analysis based on the NDS method, following the style of Professor Iraj Jafarian.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This is my personal analysis and not financial advice. Trade responsibly.
GOLD (XAUUSD) Buying dips within a macro bull runAfter a historic breakout to new highs, Gold is undergoing a healthy correction — not a reversal.
The Demand Zone (4200–4230) remains a key liquidity pocket where smart money is likely to reload longs before the next impulse.
💡 Macro Reason for Buying Dips
• Global Rate-Cut Expectations: Traders are pricing in aggressive Fed cuts over the coming months — lowering yields and boosting gold’s appeal.
• Safe-Haven Demand: Ongoing U.S.–China tensions and geopolitical uncertainty keep gold in strong institutional demand.
• Central Bank Accumulation: Central banks continue record-level gold purchases, reinforcing macro demand floors.
• USD Weakness: A softer dollar environment supports further appreciation in bullion.
Together, these macro drivers align with technical structure, suggesting pullbacks are opportunities to join the larger trend — not fight it.
📊 Trading Plan
• ✅ Monitor 4200–4230 for bullish confirmation
• ✅ Buy dips only after structure shift / rejection from demand
• ⚠️ Manage risk tightly — volatility remains elevated
• ❌ Invalidation if 4H closes below 4200
⸻
🎯 Targets
• TP1 → 4400
• TP2 → 4480
• Extended → 4500+
Bias: Bullish continuation (while above 4200)
View: Macro-driven accumulation phase within ongoing uptrend
XAUUSD Case Study | Head & Shoulders to Inverted RecoveryDate: 18th October 2025
By: Yogiraj Trading Academy 🌕
🧭 Market Overview
In the recent price action of XAUUSD (Gold Spot), the market formed a perfect Head & Shoulders pattern on the top, leading to a breakdown and a strong correction phase. The move validated our earlier resistance zones and respected every marked level with precision — a clear reflection of technical structure working in harmony with psychology.
⚔️ Phase 1 – Distribution (Head & Shoulders Breakdown)
The Head & Shoulders pattern signaled exhaustion near the 4,321–4,380 zone, followed by a decisive neckline break confirming the bearish structure. Once the neckline was breached, the market continued to slide downward with clean momentum, fulfilling the measured move target zones.
🌅 Phase 2 – Accumulation (Inverted Head & Shoulders)
Post the sharp decline, the market found strong buying interest near 4,185–4,200, forming an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern — a mirror image of the previous top structure. This hinted at potential trend reversal or continuation of the larger bullish trend once confirmation levels are reclaimed.
📈 Key Levels to Watch
Breakout Zone: 4,323 & 4,380
→ Sustained breakout above these levels will confirm trend continuation.
Immediate Support: 4,225 / 4,185
→ Loss of these levels could weaken reversal momentum.
Upside Target Zone: 4,444+
🧘 Trading Psychology Insight
Notice how both emotion and structure played their roles — panic selling near the neckline, followed by accumulation when fear was at its peak.
Markets reward discipline, patience, and conviction — exactly what Yogiraj Trading Academy stands for.
Always remember:
“Charts tell stories — only a calm mind can read them clearly.”
⚠️ Disclaimer
This is a case study for educational purposes.
Trade at your own risk with proper risk management and confirmation from higher timeframes.
🚩 Yogiraj Trading Academy
Where Knowledge Meets Dharma — Transforming Trading from Chaos to Consciousness
#YogirajTradingAcademy #XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #HeadAndShoulders #TradingPsychology #Discipline #PriceAction
Gold Setup: Structure Favors the BuyersGold continues to trade within a bullish structure, forming higher highs after rebounding cleanly from the 4180–4185 support zone. A minor pullback is offering a potential swing buy opportunity, aiming for the next resistance around 4225 as buyers remain strong above intraday support.
Key Levels:
Buy Entry: 4200
Take Profit: 4225
Stop Loss: 4183
Reasoning:
Technically, the 1H chart shows an established uptrend with a series of higher highs and higher lows. The price recently respected its new support and is maintaining bullish momentum, signaling continuation toward the next resistance area.
Fundamentally, weaker U.S. dollar sentiment and stable Treasury yields continue to support gold, while traders await U.S. economic updates that may impact Fed rate expectations.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage risk and follow your own trading plan before entering any trade.
One Step Ahead of the MarketHey guys and girls,
Look at this chart, Do you see what I see? (we are heading into a bear market).
(RSI= 86, kiss of Death) a chart is worth a thousand words!
Technical Section (a top is in place- ABC bear market):
Wave 1 = $ 850
Wave 3 = $ 1650
Wave 3 > 1.618 x length of Wave 1----> Wave 5 (Max) = 2.618 x length of Wave 1 (Target = $ 3300)
Fundamental (Bearish):
Let's look at the reasons:
a- Trump's trade war is over; as a result, there is no strong overriding trend.
b- Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady
Conclusion:
The trend is losing momentum and a top is in place.
Target = $ 2700
Invalidation level = $ 4170
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Buy Signal Alert💰 GOLD (XAU/USD) – Buy Signal Alert
📈 Buy Entry: 4143
🎯 Targets: 4160 – 4180 – 4200 (Final Target)
🛡️ Stop Loss: 4125 (Adjust as per risk)
Analysis:
Gold is showing strong bullish momentum from the 4143 support area. A sustained move above this zone indicates buyer dominance, with potential upside toward the 4200 resistance. Watch for breakout confirmation and volume support before entering the trade.
XAUUSD on Retracement overall bullish trend XAUUSD is still on bullish Bias and holding rising wedge pattern but retracement can be on strike.
What will I do Today?
✳️ currently market is bit tricky for scalpers and retailers let's assume a scanario or condition of mine .
- I'm on buy from 4190 and expecting H4 candle remains above the mentioned upper zone then hold for targets.
My target will be $4235 & 4260 In extension !!
✳️ Secondly
if any candle closes below 4180 then our buying will be postpond and we'll have retracement towards 4135 then 4110 in extension ,
Additional Tip:
-BUY the Dips
OR
Gold Weekly Review — Historic Volatility & Next Week’s Key LevelThis week, gold experienced a historic level of volatility, a truly remarkable movement that left many traders astonished.
During the session, prices tested the 4200–4180 support zone for the first time. The nearly $200 decline effectively released the heavy selling pressure that had been building up in recent days, while also creating new opportunities for bullish entries.
As expected, once prices entered the support region, they rebounded strongly, closing above 4250 with a recovery of nearly $70 (all of which I had clearly indicated in advance).
From the 30-minute chart, the candlestick structure still suggests further upside potential. However, given the weekend uncertainty, any unexpected bearish news could trigger a pullback when markets reopen on Monday.
If no major negative developments occur, bullish momentum may continue to drive gold higher. Resistance is likely to be concentrated around the 4280–4300 zone — once price enters this region, both short-term buyers and trapped long positions may start adjusting their holdings, which could increase the likelihood of a short-term correction.
On the 4-hour chart, this nearly $500 rally has just completed its first test of the MA30 support. The MA5 (near 4270) currently acts as the key resistance, followed by MA10 (around 4292).
If during consolidation, the price can hold above MA20 (around 4246), it will likely attract renewed buying interest, potentially driving prices back toward 4380 or even higher.
Conversely, if prices remain under pressure and fail to stay above the MA20, attention should shift to the MA30 support. A break below this level could open the way to a test of the MA60(near 4100).
Therefore, for next week’s trading, these levels will be our key focus points.
As I mentioned earlier this week, the medium-term long positions have been closed, and we will wait for new opportunities to emerge. If the market drops toward 4100 or even lower, I will consider re-entering long positions from those lower levels.
A friendly reminder — always align your trading strategy with your own risk tolerance and financial situation. Medium-term setups require patience and strong risk-bearing capacity. If your current condition doesn’t allow for that, please avoid blind following to prevent unnecessary losses.
Lastly, note that gold still has two unfilled gaps around 4019–4024 and 3887–3898. If the trend turns bearish, these gaps may present potential trading opportunities.
That’s all for today.
We’ll discuss specific intraday trading opportunities when the market opens.
If you have any questions or need guidance, feel free to leave me a message.
XAU updatedWell well well!!!!
London Active. Looking textbook right here and should be sweeping asias low for starters.
Open was so close to high and had every excuse to take but chose to roll in the end….
Same from last post, come close to stoppages, had to allow and like isaid, no closures were made above 70z!!!
I’ll be reducing stops here on to 70 from here, it’s tagged up enough and I believe the next interaction is for a break out. The same handle is at play! $4318x
Needs a settle and if so, we should see our targets met… 245-40…
Pending structure and closures I’ll be in the spot for layering longs.
Be meticulous, protect your self, cover your stop loss, reduce or full roll them 🤷.
Bless all!
Have a great weekend…🤝🏾😎
How Smart Money Hunts Liquidity on Gold🔶 1. Understanding Liquidity in the Market
Liquidity represents the orders resting above or below obvious price levels — mainly stop-losses and pending orders placed by retail traders.
In simple terms, where you see equal highs, equal lows, or strong swing points, that’s where liquidity pools exist.
On Gold (XAUUSD), because of its volatility, liquidity often accumulates near:
Double tops or double bottoms.
Previous day highs/lows.
Fair value gaps (imbalances).
Psychological round levels like $2300, $2350, $2400, etc.
These zones attract both buyers and sellers — and that’s exactly where Smart Money (institutional traders) aims to act.
🔶 2. What Smart Money Actually Does
Smart Money doesn’t follow retail moves — it creates them.
When price consolidates and retail traders position themselves early, institutions push price beyond these zones to:
Trigger retail stop losses.
Fill their own large institutional orders at better prices.
Remove weak hands from the market.
This process is called a Liquidity Hunt or Stop Hunt.
It’s not manipulation in a malicious sense — it’s simply how large players execute size efficiently in a decentralized market.
🔶 3. The Classic Gold Liquidity Hunt Pattern
Let’s break down a typical Smart Money setup on XAUUSD:
Step 1:
Price builds equal highs (or equal lows) — retail traders see it as a breakout zone.
Step 2:
Institutions push price slightly beyond that area, creating a false breakout.
Stop-losses of early traders are triggered — this is the liquidity grab.
Step 3:
Immediately after the sweep, structure shifts (Change of Character / CHoCH).
This confirms that Smart Money has completed its collection phase and is now ready to move price in the intended direction.
Step 4:
Price often retraces back into the order block or fair value gap left behind by displacement.
This is where the high-probability entry lies — the Smart Money entry point.
🔶 4. Why Gold (XAUUSD) Shows This So Clearly
Gold is one of the most liquid and manipulated markets on the planet — ideal for studying Smart Money behavior.
Because it trades heavily during London and New York sessions, liquidity is constantly generated and removed.
This is why you’ll frequently see:
Sudden spikes before major sessions open.
Sharp sweeps before news events (CPI, NFP, FOMC).
Rapid reversals after stop-hunts.
Institutions use gold as a liquidity engine, often hunting both sides of the market before the real move.
🔶 5. How to Identify a Real Liquidity Hunt (Checklist)
Use this professional checklist to train your eye:
✅ Look for equal highs/lows forming before the move.
✅ Wait for a stop-hunt candle — a long wick piercing liquidity zone.
✅ Confirm a market structure shift (MSS or CHoCH) in lower timeframe.
✅ Entry only after displacement and a clean retracement into an order block.
Avoid reacting emotionally to every breakout — Smart Money uses time + patience to trick impulsive traders.
🔶 6. Practical Educational Example
Suppose Gold forms equal highs at $2380 during the London session.
Many retail traders place buy stops above $2380 expecting a breakout.
Institutions see that as a liquidity pool.
Price suddenly spikes to $2385, sweeps those buy stops, and then drops to $2360 — that’s your liquidity hunt.
Once the structure shifts bearish after the sweep, Smart Money has filled sell orders at a premium — and the downtrend resumes.
🔶 7. Educational Takeaway
Smart Money doesn’t predict — it reacts to liquidity.
By understanding where traders are trapped, you align your trades with institutional flow instead of retail emotion.
📘 Key Principles:
Trade after the liquidity grab, not before.
Always wait for confirmation through structure shift.
Focus on zones of interest, not random breakouts.
Observe timing — most liquidity hunts occur during session opens or high-impact news.
💬 Final Note:
Every chart tells a story — but only those who understand liquidity can read the true language of price.
Study it, practice it, and you’ll see how Smart Money creates opportunity through manipulation and order flow.
📘 Follow me for more professional educational content on Smart Money, Liquidity, and Gold market behavior.
Analysis of the latest gold price trends today!Market News:
In early Asian trading on Wednesday (October 15th), spot gold prices continued their upward trend, briefly soaring to $4,170/oz. Yesterday, London gold prices hit a record high of $4,179/oz, before bullish profit-taking triggered a short-term plunge of nearly $90, hitting a low of around $4,090. Although the price briefly dipped below the $4,100 mark during the session, bargain-hunting quickly helped international gold prices regain their upward momentum. The strength of international gold is inseparable from the Federal Reserve's increasingly dovish shift. The Fed Chairman's speech hinted at poor non-farm payroll data and suggested interest rate cuts would support economic employment. With the shutdown bill failing to pass, gold once again experienced a safe-haven resurgence. The ongoing US government shutdown and the risk of a renewed trade war have supported gold prices above the critical $4,100/oz level. The continued rise in spot gold is a milestone driven by the combined forces of safe-haven demand, the Fed's dovish shift, and a weakening US dollar. From the smoke of the trade war to the decline in bond yields and the dollar's decline in the foreign exchange market, gold prices are heading for higher peaks. In the short term, the international trade situation may be a key variable. If signals of reconciliation are released, gold prices may experience a correction; however, if friction escalates, the $4,180 mark will be easily surpassed.
Technical Analysis:
Gold maintains its trend structure, with the daily chart maintaining a consecutive positive trend and continuing to close in a buying trend. The 10-day and 7-day moving averages remain upward. Yesterday, the price retreated near the 5-day moving average at 4,083, but stabilized at 4,090 before regaining support. On the short-term four-hour chart, the price remains within an upward trending channel, with the Bollinger Bands opening upward and extending the price to the upper middle band. The gold trend structure remains unchanged. Trend-following trading remains primarily focused on buying at low prices, supplemented by selling at high prices. Judging from the gold hourly chart, the short-term market has seen another surge in profit-taking following overbought conditions. Any correction or decline could be significant. While there may be room for further short-term gains, it will likely take a while. Furthermore, any correction or decline in the future is likely to be a rapid, sharp decline. Avoid chasing the ups and downs!
Strategy:
Short-term gold buy at 4140-4143, stop loss at 4132, target at 4180-4200;
Short-term gold sell at 4190-4193, stop loss at 4202, target at 4100-4120;
Key Points:
First Support Level: 4132, Second Support Level: 4112, Third Support Level: 4090
First Resistance Level: 4180, Second Resistance Level: 4197, Third Resistance Level: 4213