Gold. October 26-31, 2025🟡 Technical Analysis
Gold maintains an overall bullish structure, although it is currently undergoing an active correction from the highs around 4,380–4,400 USD.
The general pattern suggests a consolidation phase resembling a flag or triangle, with a clear formation of higher lows.
Key technical levels:
• Major support between 4,050 and 4,000 USD, where institutional demand may concentrate.
• Immediate resistance between 4,160 and 4,200 USD, which has capped several breakout attempts.
• On the 1-hour chart, lateral volatility can be observed between 4,080 and 4,150 USD — typical of a pre-breakout stage.
• On the 15-minute chart, long lower wicks indicate selling absorption at support zones.
👉 In summary: Gold is in a reaccumulation phase after the correction, and a breakout with volume above 4,160 USD would confirm bullish continuation.
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🧭 Fundamental Analysis
1. Monetary Policy (Fed):
The Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates, but the latest inflation data (CPI and PPI) came in lower, reinforcing expectations of a rate cut by December or January. This weakens the dollar and supports gold.
2. Domestic Policy:
The federal shutdown risk and lack of budget consensus in Congress create uncertainty, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
3. Geopolitics:
Ongoing tensions in the Middle East and trade talks between China and the U.S. sustain demand for safe havens.
4. Upcoming Data:
The PCE index will be the week’s main catalyst, along with Powell’s statements and GDP revisions.
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📈 Probable Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Moderate Bullish
Gold holds support between 4,050 and 4,080 USD and manages to break the 4,160–4,200 USD resistance with strength and volume.
Upside targets: 4,250–4,300 USD initially, with potential extension toward 4,350–4,400 USD.
This scenario would be favored by weak dollar data, rate-cut expectations, or political progress reducing shutdown risk.
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Scenario 2 – Corrective Bearish
If gold fails to hold above 4,050 USD and drops below 4,000 USD, a technical correction could activate toward 3,950–3,850 USD.
This move is more likely if PCE prints higher, the Fed maintains a hawkish tone, or the DXY strengthens.
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Scenario 3 – Sideways
Price remains within the 4,080–4,160 USD range without clear direction, awaiting the PCE release.
This reflects a typical indecision phase before a key macroeconomic event.
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🎯 Recommended Technical Levels
Bullish scenario:
• Ideal buy zones: 4,050–4,080 USD
• Targets: 4,250 USD (TP1), 4,300 USD (TP2), 4,400 USD (TP3)
• Suggested stop loss: 3,980 USD
• A close below 3,980 would confirm bearish reversal.
Bearish scenario:
• Ideal sell zones: 4,160–4,180 USD
• Targets: 4,000 USD (TP1), 3,950 USD (TP2)
• Stop loss: 4,220 USD, invalidating the setup if price breaks above 4,200 USD.
Sideways scenario:
• Buy near support (4,050 USD) and sell near resistance (4,160 USD), aiming for 40–60 USD range profits.
• Stop loss: ~30 USD outside the range.
• Reversal confirmation if price breaks beyond range limits.
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📋 Final Summary
• The primary trend in gold remains bullish as long as price holds above 4,000 USD.
• Key catalysts this week: the federal shutdown situation, PCE data, Powell’s remarks, and geopolitical tensions.
• General recommendation: look for buy setups on pullbacks to support zones, apply active risk management, and take partial profits at resistance levels.
