GOLD – Liquidity Compression Before Rate Cut (Dec 10) Buy zoneXAUUSD is trading inside a multi-week compression wedge, building energy for a breakout as the December 10 rate cut approaches.
When price compresses into a macro event, liquidity mapping becomes more important than patterns.
Here’s the current structure in simple terms:
🔍 1. Liquidity Above Price (Buy-Side Liquidity)
Price has formed clean equal highs between 4300–4350, which creates:
breakout buy orders
short stop-loss clusters
unfilled liquidity from the last sweep
This is the ultimate magnet if price chooses upside continuation into the rate decision.
🔍 2. Liquidity Below Price (Sell-Side Liquidity)
There are 3 layers of resting liquidity:
1) 4165–4185 zone (primary liquidity pocket)
This aligns with:
rising trendline support
unmitigated 4H imbalance
multiple swing lows
strong volume node
This zone is the most likely to be tapped before any upside breakout.
2) 4120–4140 zone
Deeper stop-run zone.
Less likely due to timing, but if hit, it typically produces a strong bullish reaction.
3) 4000–4020 extreme flush zone
Requires unexpected macro volatility.
Least likely before Dec 10.
📈 3. Macro Context: Rate Cut Probability on December 10
When a dovish macro event is very close, gold historically:
avoids deep retracements
tends to accumulate shallow dips
front-runs the announcement
often sweeps one side and then trends strongly in the opposite direction
Because time is short, a full breakdown is unlikely.
The market typically chooses either a shallow sweep or a direct breakout.
🎯 Most Likely Path (based on structure + liquidity + macro timing)
Dip into 4165–4185 (sell-side sweep)
Liquidity grab + accumulation
Push toward 4250
Breakout attempt into 4300–4350 (buy-side sweep)
Volatility spike during/after the rate cut
This sequence aligns with both institutional liquidity behavior and typical pre-FOMC price action.
📌 Key Levels to Watch
Buy-Side Liquidity:
4300
4330–4350 (major equal highs)
Sell-Side Liquidity:
4185
4165
4140
4120
🧠 Idea Summary
Gold is compressing into a major macro catalyst while sitting between significant liquidity pools on both sides.
The next 2–3 sessions will likely deliver:
a shallow downside sweep into 4165–4185 OR
a direct upside breakout
Both paths ultimately point toward gold attempting to test higher liquidity into the rate cut.
This idea is not financial advice—it’s a liquidity map to help understand how price may behave heading into a high-impact event.
