Gold Trade Plan 26/10/2025Dear Traders,
ased on Trump's initial comments regarding a trade war agreement with China, we will likely see selling pressure at resistance levels. The first area where the price is likely to react well is the 4200–4220 range. Considering the high liquidation above this level, I expect a 300–500 pip drop in the first reaction to this range. Also, the FOMC meeting on Wednesday is very important.
Regards,
Aireza!
Trade ideas
XAUUSD (Gold) - Long Setup with Key News Risk Ahead
We are identifying a potential long entry in Gold, targeting a move of approximately 50 pips.
Trading Plan:
This is a short-term tactical play. We are patient for this scenario to develop.
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⚠️ CRITICAL RISK DISCLAIMER & NEWS TO CONSIDER
While the technical setup is valid, traders MUST be aware of a significant fundamental event that could override this analysis.
· Key Risk:President Trump's Trip to East Asia.
· Any statements on trade, geopolitics, or fiscal policy from this trip have the high potential to cause volatility and a sharp bearish shift in market sentiment.
· A "risk-on" mood could weaken gold, while escalated tensions could cause a spike. Be prepared for both outcomes.
Final Recommendation:
This long setup is valid but HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO NEWS. Check the sentiment and news feeds constantly. Consider reducing position size or using a wider stop to account for the increased volatility from this geopolitical event.
Always trade what you see, not what you believe.
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#XAUUSD #GOLD #TradingSetup #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #RiskManagement #Geopolitics
Gold CompressionGold has made a strong move in 2025, with a high recently of 4381.44.
We can see a consolidation of price following the Tariff Tantrum from April to August 2025, into an ascending triangle. This is reflected in the ATR contracting , momentum moving to its base and RSI hovering around the midlevel.
Following this base, a strong impulse propels price over 1000 USD in a matter of weeks. The RSI sits perpetually in the Oversold region and the ATR more than doubles.
The parabolic move ended with a 5 sigma day on Tuesday as the Bears stepped in. The remainder of the week sees Gold staying above the 4000 level.
Where from here ?
The market can breath out by either expending price or time. Given the fundamental background of Dollar Debasement, Dedollarization, Gold Consumption by Central Banks and Brics initiatives, it is likely Gold moves into consolidation from here into early 2026.
Support - offered by the 50 MAV and Fib 50-61.8 levels.
Target - 5000 beyond Q1 2026.
XAU/USD – 4H Bearish Pennant Formation Gold is currently consolidating within a bearish pennant on the 4-hour timeframe, suggesting potential continuation to the downside. While a Fair Value Gap (FVG) above may invite a short-term liquidity grab toward 4225, the presence of a Gravestone Doji strengthens the bearish bias.
If price breaks below the pennant support, it could trigger a move toward the demand zone highlighted below.
⚠️ Be cautious of false breakouts and liquidity traps.
📍 Don’t forget to place your Stop-Loss.
GOLD -SELL 3-monthly chart Reg. Channel GOLD is way overbought, and yes one can find reasons for the increase of value, but we should understand that the value is overdone. I feel strongly at a personal viewpoint, that a decline back towards $ 2,900 area is very possible.
Strategy SELL medium-term between $ 4,000-4,350 (or add even when short since $ 3,800 is fine). Take profit between $ 2,900-3,100.
also note I will be providing lesser updates, due to a lot of activities and managing funds, making it a little difficult to update regularly.
Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis
The chart shows a completed five-wave impulsive structure, with price forming a strong top around 4220–4230 before breaking the main ascending trendline on the 2H timeframe.
A short-term pullback toward the 2H Fair Value Gap (FVG) area between 4219–4223 is expected before the next bearish leg toward 4004, and possibly 3830–3833.
As long as price remains below 4230, the short-term outlook stays bearish.
📊 Fundamental View:
Gold is facing pressure as Fed rate-cut expectations fade and bond yields remain high.
Additionally, improved global risk sentiment and temporary easing of geopolitical tensions support the case for a corrective move lower in gold prices after the recent rally.
📅 Short-term Bias: Bearish
🎯 Targets: 4004 – 3830
⛔ Invalidation Level: Above 4230
#XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis #EmaraCapital #Rami_Hajj_Bakour #Trading #Markets
Gold Buy at 4080 and sell at 4240Now gold in consolidation mode and trying to book profits and make the retail traders into the trap so for now we need to be patience and buy at 4080 and close at 4240, after the fed interest cut gold will come down so sell at 4240 and wait for long selling till 3966. This method is Wd Gann inspiration i made and am still learning, this one sharing for study purpose so trade with your own analysis.
XAU/USD Intraday Plan | Support & Resistance to WatchGold dropped like a rock yesterday, extending its sharp sell-off into the early Asian session, where price briefly touched 4,004 before bouncing back. The move marked one of the steepest single-day declines in weeks, slicing straight through multiple support zones before finding some footing just above 4075(deeper support zone).
Price is now hovering around 4,141, showing early signs of stabilization after yesterday’s flush-out. While the broader uptrend remains intact, short-term momentum has clearly shifted bearish, with the MA50 now acting as dynamic resistance. If buyers can reclaim 4,192 and the MA200, a corrective bounce toward 4,227 and 4,279 could follow.
However, failure to hold above 4,117 would likely trigger another leg lower toward the Deeper Support Zone (4,075–4,044), where stronger buying interest are expected.
📌 Key levels to watch:
Resistance:
4151
4192
4227
4279
4321
Support:
4117
4075
4044
4004
3984
🔎 Fundamental focus:
While short-term sentiment has flipped cautious, the broader macro backdrop remains gold-supportive — ongoing political risk and weak global growth continue to attract dip buyers on major corrections.
Correct projection for GoldThe core conclusions of today's analysis on gold have all been verified by market trends, which can be summarized in three aspects: trend prediction, key level control, and trend logic:
1-Trend prediction verification: It was clearly stated this morning that "if it breaks below the key support level of 4280, it will enter a consolidation phase and may further drop to 4150". The current gold price is completely in line with this downward range, and the prediction is highly consistent with the actual trend.
2-Key level control: The previously emphasized resistance level at 4380 and support level at 4280 have both become the core boundaries of intraday price fluctuations.
3-We accurately captured "the restrictive effect of support and resistance levels on prices", and there were no deviations in the judgments on "short-term fluctuation rhythm and long-term trend direction", effectively providing clear range and direction references for trading operations.
Gold to 4300 peak. Massive liquidation around 4300Gold is over extended to the upside. Bullish dollar seems on the horizon, as it confirmed CHOC to the upside. By analyzing the massive wave, I can infer from past experience with gold, that the leg to the upside is getting exhausted at 4300, warranting a very strong bearish momentum to the downside. Massive correction possible around 4300 as shown in my chart analysis.
I have been analyzing gold for very long time. My first nominations for the gold's peak was 3500 in 2023. However, after looking at the price behavior, it seems this is similar to the post covid leg. It is only a matter of catching the breakout zones, and drawing a resistance line on those peaks. You have Feb 2024 and May 2019 inducement, where the breakout begins. You can easily plot your way up from there.
Bias Compression: Breakout or Breakdown Incoming.XAU/USD Final October Outlook — Structure, Pressure Zones, and Bias Control
As October draws to a close, Gold continues to respect its technical framework, maintaining a disciplined corrective structure after the mid-month rejection from the upper resistance zone. The chart now reveals a series of pressure zones, each represented by a triangular formation — a visual depiction of directional bias and momentum buildup.
The green triangle reflects the current buy pressure zone, where price is attempting to stabilize after the recent sell leg. A sustained move within this area could trigger a short-term rebound, leading price back toward the Major Benchmark at 4,369. A confirmed breakout above this level would signal a structural shift, opening the path toward the Initial Monthly Target at 4,619.
Conversely, the red triangle represents the sell pressure zone, where bearish continuation remains dominant. As long as price action remains inside this red triangle, selling pressure is expected to persist, promoting further downside momentum through the Sell Continuation phase. However, an exit above the red triangle would invalidate the bearish structure, signaling exhaustion in the current downtrend and potential reversal strength building into early November.
The Sell Continuation Target at 3,374 stands as the completion point for this corrective wave should bearish momentum remain intact.
In summary, each triangle serves as a visual boundary of market intent — buyers defending the green zone, sellers maintaining control within the red. October’s final sessions will determine which side ultimately dictates November’s opening structure.
Final October note: Structure remains intact, pressure zones are clearly defined, and momentum balance will dictate the next major move.
Gold is still in a downward channel
News:
On Wednesday (October 22nd), spot gold trading saw increased volatility, trading above $4,000 before the US market opened. Previously, the price of gold retreated rapidly from its stage high: it once reached $4,161 in the European session and then came under pressure again; in sharp contrast to the previous stage peak of $4,380, the retreat was significant, and the market became increasingly sensitive to the offensive and defensive switches of the "four thousand mark".
Overall, the market is in a data vacuum. Affected by the government shutdown, the economic schedule on Wednesday was empty, with only a small number of Treasury auctions and repurchase operations supporting liquidity. However, global macro events have quietly amplified the cross-market linkage effect.
Specifically:
Judging from the 4-hour market trend, the current focus is on the short-term suppression of 4090-4080 on the top, and the short-term support of 4000 on the bottom. If the bulls cannot break through, gold will continue to maintain a downward trend. The operation should be mainly high-altitude, and wait patiently for key points to enter the market. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy in the channel, so please pay attention to it in time.
Trading strategy:
Buy: 4090-4080, SL: 4105, TP: 3990-3965
XAUUSD Update - Bullish Scenario to reach 4500 levelIf next week, 3997 support still holding, so a bullish continuation may appears.
If market will make a bullish continuation, the target is fibo extention zone at 4500-4600 zone.
Stay carefully as price still consolidation at 4161 - 4005 zone ( Triangle pattern ) .
Waiting for a confirmation is more wiser.
Have a blessing week ahead !
* This scenario could be cancelled if selling pressure continues and the price makes a deeper correction.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (October 23, 2025)
1️⃣ Momentum
D1 Timeframe:
• The D1 momentum is now in the oversold zone, suggesting a potential bullish reversal at any moment.
• Once we see a D1 candle close with a bullish confirmation, it could trigger 3–5 consecutive bullish days ahead.
H4 Timeframe:
• The H4 momentum is currently overbought, indicating a possible downward correction during today’s session.
H1 Timeframe:
• The H1 momentum is now turning upward, meaning price may rise slightly or move sideways in the short term.
• Watch two key liquidity zones: 4098 and 4143.
If H1 momentum reaches the overbought zone around these levels, it will align with the H4 bearish momentum, creating a strong resistance area.
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2️⃣ Wave Structure
D1 Structure:
• The D1 momentum is preparing to reverse, showing that the current decline is weakening.
• A short-term recovery wave is likely to appear soon.
• As discussed in yesterday’s plan, we must observe the upcoming bullish move to confirm whether the recent downtrend has completed.
H4 Structure:
• The H4 momentum is overbought, meaning a bearish reversal may happen soon.
• Price movement is slow and overlapping, suggesting that the next decline could be either:
o Wave 4 of Wave Y (blue), or
o A larger corrective phase if momentum fully shifts downward.
H1 Structure:
• The current formation may be developing as a Flat or a Triangle correction.
o If it’s a Flat, the 4143 level is a potential completion zone for Wave C (black), after which price could resume its decline.
o If it’s a Triangle, the pattern is not yet complete — confirmation will come when price breaks below the lower boundary, offering a Sell opportunity.
🎯 Target zone if the decline unfolds:
• Based on the H4 momentum cycle (typically lasting 4–5 candles),
• And according to Fibonacci projection, Wave 5 of Wave Y (blue) targets around 3927.
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3️⃣ Trading Plan
• The current H1 candle range is very wide (300–400 pips), while my typical stop-loss size is 100–150 pips.
• This makes limit orders risky in the current environment.
• Therefore, it’s better to wait for clear confirmation before entering trades, rather than placing early limit orders.
🔹 Sell Zones:
• 4143 and 4190 – expected top areas of this correction.
• Additionally, if price breaks above liquidity zones and then retests, these can serve as Sell entries aligned with the H4 downward momentum.
How to Analyze Daily Time Frame on Gold. 5 Important Things
There are 5 important things that you should analyze on Gold on a daily time frame to accurately predict long term, midterm and short term movements.
In this article, I will share with you a step-by-step guide for daily time frame analysis that you can apply on Gold or any other financial instrument.
1 - Identify the market trend
When you analyze a daily time frame, you should identify long term, midterm and short term market trends.
Long-term trend is based on the analysis of one year long price action.
In the example above, Gold is trading in a long term bullish trend because the price keeps setting new higher high and new higher lows during the year.
Midterm trend is based on the analysis of a price action for the last 4–5 months.
Above, we can clearly see that a mid-term trend is bullish because again, the price sets new higher highs and higher lows over time.
Short-term trend is based on the analysis of price movements for the last 2 months.
Short-term price action is also bullish on Gold, with a clear sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
According to the trend analysis, long-term, mid-term and short-term trends are bullish.
2 - Identify the directional bias
The directional bias defines a highly probable future direction on the market.
In our example, we can anticipate that Gold will keep growing among all the dimensions: long-term, mid-term and short-term.
3 - Execute structure analysis
Identify important historic horizontal and vertical structures.
That will be the points from where you should look for trading opportunities.
When you analyze key levels, identify the structures that are lying close to the current price levels.
Make sure that all the structures that you spotted were respected by the market in the past.
4 - Look for price action patterns
Price action patterns are the language of the market.
Proper identification of the patters will help you correctly understand the intentions of the market participants.
You can see that a bearish breakout of a rising channel triggered a correctional movement on the market.
Gold started to fall steadily within a bullish flag pattern and after it tested a key support, the price violated the resistance of the flag.
5 - Analyze candlesticks
Candlestick patterns can provide extra clues and confirmations.
You can see that the market formed multiple rejections from key support, an inside bar formation and bullish engulfing candle.
Violation of the inside bar to the upside with a strong bullish candle is an important bullish signal.
Combining trend analysis, structure analysis, price action and candlestick analysis, and you can make predictions and look for trading opportunities.
You can also make your analysis even more sophisticated, for example, analyzing fundamental analysis or applying technical indicators.
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XAUUSD in rangbound expecting upside moveXAUUSD is consolidation zone range from 4050-4140 .
What are my conditions For Today's session?
Currently i m looking for buy trade from 4040-4052 zone ,I'm expecting H4 Candle closing will remain above 4050.
If it's remain above 4050 then see ATH again without anymore Dips.
Targets: 4145- 4175.
✳️Secondly if H4-H1 candle closes below 4040
our buying will be postpond and market will test 3960 area for coverage of bottom leg.






















