GOLD Will Move Lower! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 4,076.79.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 3,724.27 level soon.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
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Trade ideas
Plan |Gold Gradually Accumulating, Preparing for an Upward Wave?🔍 Market Context
After reaching the historical peak ATH GOLD 4,371 USD , gold underwent a deep correction, breaking the short-term bullish structure (BoS) and retesting the OB Bearish zone above .
However, since the price returned to the 4,040 – 4,060 USD area, the market has shown clear signs of liquidity absorption ($$$) and maintained an internal upward trendline, indicating that buying momentum is returning.
The current structure suggests gold is in a re-accumulation phase before forming a medium-term recovery wave towards the 4,185 → 4,243 USD zone.
Buyers hold the advantage as long as the price does not break the main support trendline.
💎 Key Technical Structure
Support Zone: 4,040 – 4,060 USD → a strong support zone confluencing with the trendline, where institutional buying previously appeared.
Support Trendline: connecting the series of higher lows from 15/10 → short-term trend remains bullish.
Liquidity Zone $$$: 4,060 – 4,080 → supply absorption zone, confirming its role as a “price base”.
Resistance Zone: 4,149 – 4,185 → the first resistance zone to break to confirm the recovery momentum.
Target FVG / Supply Zone: 4,243 – 4,250 → potential profit-taking area or reversal consideration point.
Current structure:
→ Short-term: bullish corrective move.
→ Medium-term: potential for forming an extended recovery wave if holding above 4,040 USD.
📈 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ BUY Setup – Retest Trendline / Liquidity Zone 4,060 USD
Entry: 4,060 – 4,070
SL: 4,035
TP1: 4,149
TP2: 4,185
TP3: 4,243
✅ Condition:
Price hits the trendline or liquidity zone 4,060 and shows a bullish reversal signal (rejection / bullish engulfing).
➡️ This is a high-probability setup, confluencing trendline structure + liquidity zone support, often where large buyers re-enter the market.
2️⃣ BUY Setup – Break & Retest resistance zone 4,149 USD
Entry: 4,149 – 4,155
SL: 4,130
TP1: 4,185
TP2: 4,243
✅ Condition:
Wait for the price to break the 4,149 resistance zone with strong volume, then lightly retest without closing below 4,130.
➡️ Trend-following setup – confirms the return of buying momentum and extends the target to the FVG zone 4,243 USD.
3️⃣ SELL Setup (Scalp reaction) – FVG 4,243 USD
Entry: 4,240 – 4,245
SL: 4,255
TP: 4,185 → 4,150
✅ Condition:
Only execute if there is a strong reaction at FVG 4,243 without a continuation break signal.
➡️ Short-term technical sell – leveraging the supply zone reaction, not holding the position long.
⚠️ Risk Management
Prioritize trading in the buy direction, avoid selling against the main trend.
If H2 closes below 4,035 → bullish scenario invalidated, wait for a new structure.
Do not FOMO buy in the mid-range (4,090–4,130).
Keep moderate volume, move SL to breakeven when price surpasses 4,149.
💬 Conclusion
Gold is in a gradually ascending accumulation phase after a strong decline.
As long as the price holds the trendline and support zone 4,040 – 4,060 USD, gold is likely to rebound following the liquidity + breakout retest model, with the main target being 4,185 → 4,243 USD .
If it breaks through 4,243 USD, the market could trigger a stronger rally towards 4,300 – 4,340 USD .
👉 Reasonable Strategy:
Buy 4,060–4,070 → TP 4,185 / 4,243 USD
Add Buy when breaking 4,149 USD with volume confirmation.
Technical Sell 4,243 USD if there is no signal to break higher.
🔥 “As long as 4,040 holds, gold remains in accumulation — patience will pay.”
⏰ Timeframe: 2H
📅 Update: 27/10/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
GOLD | Pullback Resistance AheadBased on the H4 chart analysis, we could see the price rise to the sell entry, which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and could reverse from this level to the downside.
Stop loss is at 4,370.70, which is a multi-swing high resistance.
Take profit is at 3,946.74, which is a pullback support that is slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
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Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Gold Trading Strategy for Next MondayGold Trading Strategy for Next Monday
Looking ahead to gold prices next week, the market is currently experiencing a combination of short-term technical adjustments and long-term positive factors.
As shown in Figure 4h:
Gold prices have formed a converging triangle pattern between the key support level of $4,000 and the near-term resistance level of $4,180.
Large Range: $4,000-4,180
Small Range: $4,050-4,150
Policy Expectations: The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, but the US government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, leaving the market in a "data vacuum." Divergence on the future policy path has exacerbated short-term volatility.
Geopolitical: Events such as the deadlock in Russia-Ukraine negotiations continue to create uncertainty, boosting gold's safe-haven demand.
Central Bank Gold Purchases: A Goldman Sachs report indicates that global central banks are expected to continue their gold purchasing trend, which will provide solid support for gold prices from the perspective of long-term demand and market sentiment.
Long-term bullish
The current technical picture shows typical consolidation characteristics:
Range: Gold prices have formed a range-bound trend between $4,000 and $4,180. On shorter timeframes, the market may also fluctuate within a tighter range, such as $4,050-4,100-4,150.
Market Structure: After the previous sharp rise in gold prices, the market needs to experience volatility to digest profit-taking and accumulate energy for subsequent directional choices.
Trading Strategy for Next Monday:
Given the current volatile market, "buy low, sell high" is the core strategy. The key is to seize trading opportunities on both sides of the range.
Shorting the upper range limit:
Sell: $4170-4180
Stop loss: Above $4200
Target price: $4120 / $4080 / $4050
Longing the lower range limit:
Buy: $4015-4025
Stop loss: Below $4000
Target price: $4050 / $4080 / $4100
Key Points:
Breakout follow-up: Closely monitor price tests of the range boundaries.
If gold prices break below the $4,000 support level, investors should avoid blindly buying on dips and remain vigilant to the risk of further declines.
Conversely, if gold prices break through and stabilize above $4,180, investors may consider buying on the trend, targeting the previous high.
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
OANDA:XAUUSD Gold is consolidating between $4,132 resistance and $4,091 support. Price rejected from the resistance zone and is currently sliding lower. The structure shows a potential bearish continuation if sellers defend $4,128–$4,132, with downside pressure targeting the $4,091–$4,088 zone.
📌 Trade Setup
Entry: $4,128–$4,135 (near resistance rejection)
Stop Loss: $4,135
Take Profit: $4,091 → $4,088
Risk/Reward (R:R): ~1 : 5.26
🌍 Macro Background
Gold remains under pressure as traders focus on U.S. CPI data (Sep) due later today, expected at 3.1% YoY. Renewed USD demand and seasonal demand slowdown after India’s Diwali festival are capping upside momentum. However, safe-haven flows could reemerge amid the prolonged U.S. government shutdown and US-China trade talks set during the APEC summit. The Fed is still expected to cut rates by 25bps in November and December, which provides medium-term support.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: $4,128 – $4,132
Support Zone: $4,091 – $4,088
Breakout Levels: Above $4,140 = bullish invalidation, Below $4,085 = continuation lower
📋 Trade Summary
The bias remains bearish intraday below $4,132 resistance. CPI data and trade headlines may cause volatility spikes. Short positions near resistance offer better R:R as long as $4,135 is not breached.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
My Trading Setup for Gold Today #xauusd
A good trader doesn't chase the market. They identify a specific price area (a "zone") where their strategy signals a high-probability entry. This is based on technical levels like support, Fibonacci retracements, or order blocks.
· Check Sentiment: Before entering, you must understand the broader market mood. Is the overall trend still bullish? What is the higher time frame (like 1H or 4H) doing? This ensures your 15-minute trade aligns with the larger market flow.
· Tick your checklist: Every trading strategy should have a concrete checklist (e.g., RSI above 50, price above a key moving average, a specific candlestick pattern). This removes guesswork and ensures you only take trades that meet all your criteria.
3. The Risk Management: "SL+4057| Logical SL"
· This is arguably the most important part. "SL" stands for Stop Loss.
· "SL+4057": The exact price level where the trade will be closed for a loss if the market moves against them. This defines the risk upfront.
· "Logical SL": The stop loss isn't arbitrary. A "logical" SL is placed just beyond a technical level that, if broken, would invalidate the entire reason for entering the trade. For example, below a recent swing low or a key support zone. This is professional risk management.
#TradingEducation #RiskManagement #ForexTrader #DayTrading #XAUUSD #TradingPlan #AlgorithmicTrading #Investing #FinancialMarkets
Oct 22, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential Opportunity📊 Analysis:
Yesterday formed the largest daily bearish candle in history, breaking below my previously defined bull–bear pivot at 4189.
This confirms that bearish momentum has taken control.
Watch 4186 closely — this is today’s key level:
Below 4186 → focus on selling rallies into resistance.
Above 4186 → I’ll need to carefully assess whether bearish pressure has weakened before attempting buying pullbacks into support.
Stay with the trend and avoid overtrading against the main direction.
I once read a line in a trading book that I’d like to share with everyone:
“The market takes the stairs up but the elevator down.”
Don’t rush to catch the bottom — it’s always safer to wait for a clear reversal signal and then trade the pullback that confirms it.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 4200 – Psychological level
• 4186 – Key bull–bear pivot
• 4165 – Resistance
• 4150 – Mid-level zone
• 4126 – Resistance
• 4100 – Psychological level / Major support
• 4080 – Support
• 4060 – Support
• 4045 – Support
• 4024 – Support
📈 Intraday Strategy:
SELL: If price breaks below 4165 → target 4150, with further downside toward 4126, 4100, 4080
BUY: If price holds above 4186 → target 4190, with further upside toward 4195, 4200
If $GOLD is at its peak, is $BTC next?Gold has been rejected at the 0.618 level of the Fibonacci channel on the 3M chart.
The Stoch RSI demonstrates a striking similarity to past cycles:
The bullish structure, which continued in the overbought region in October 2010, peaked 273 days later in July 2011.
Momentum, which continued in the overbought region again in October 2019, reached its peak 365 days later in October 2020.
Today, history paints a similar picture once again.
The bullish structure, which began in the overbought region in October 2024, may have reached its peak approximately one year later, in October 2025, just as in previous cycles.
Gold appears to be completing its historical rhythm once again.
Note: The Bitcoin / Gold pair is developing in the opposite direction.
Gold Fundamentals | Smart Money Buy Zones (10/21/2025)BELOW IS DETAILED ANALYSIS ON GOLD (10/21/2025)
Central Bank Buying Surge 🏦
Central banks, especially from BRICS nations, added 77% more gold reserves in 2025, hitting record highs and pushing prices up amid de-dollarization fears.
🥇 Silver benefits indirectly as industrial demand grows 17% YoY from solar and EVs.
This trend could add $200-300/oz to gold by year-end.
ETF Inflows Hit $41B 📈💸
Gold ETFs saw $38B inflows in H1 2025, strongest since 2020, while silver ETFs added $3.6B (95M oz).
This reflects retail and institutional flight to safety, but overbought RSI warns of 5-10% pullback risk soon ⚠️.
Silver Deficit Deepens ⚙️🥈
Cumulative silver deficit reached 750M oz over 4 years (75% of annual supply), driven by booming industrial use in renewables.
Expect prices to test $55+ if deficits persist into 2026 💥.
Latest Tweets from Key Figures Impacting Gold/Silver 🐦
Influencers warn Trump’s tariffs could spike silver to $60 on supply chain chaos.
highlights Fed dovishness fueling $4,300 gold breakouts amid trade war fears.
Option Inflows💬📊
SLV open interest peaks at Oct 17/Nov 21 expiries, with put IV at 62.9% vs call 53.8% at $46 strike showing downside hedge bets amid tariff buzz.
Net bullish $36M call premium at $49-50 strikes signals $55 targets if squeeze hits 🚀.
Latest Geopolitical Events 🌎🔥
US-China tensions escalate with new export controls on rare earths and batteries, driving safe-haven buys
gold tops $4,300, silver $54.
Russia-Ukraine stalemate and Middle East flares add volatility,
but BRICS de-dollarization supports long-term uptrend 🏦.
Latest Fundamentals 📊💵
Gold up 58% YTD on inflation hedges and $38B ETF inflows;
silver surges 79% from 1B oz supply deficit and 17% industrial demand growth.
Fed rate cuts lower holding costs, targeting gold $4,400 and silver $57 by mid-2026 🎯.
Current Prices (as of Oct 21, 2025) ⏰💰
Gold spot: $4,362 USD/oz, up 0.10% today and 16.41% monthly.
Silver spot: $51.20 USD/oz, down 5.6% from $54.47 record but up 74% YTD.
Conclusion 💎
Gold and silver are in a strong bull run, fueled by trade wars, Fed easing, and supply shortages ideal for safe-haven plays.
Is This the Start of Gold’s Next Major Upswing?🦸♂️ Title: XAU/USD Heist: The Golden Pullback Play (Swing/Day Trade) 💰
📈 Executive Brief (The "Why")
The shiny rock is pulling back to a key support zone! We're looking for a potential bullish continuation swing. The plan is to catch the dip as it retests a dynamic support level, aiming for a ride back up to a major resistance area. This is a classic "buy the dip" setup in a structurally strong asset.
🎯 The Trade Plan (The "How")
Asset: XAU/USD (Gold)
Bias: Bullish
Strategy: Pending Order on a Pullback
📍 Entry Zone:
YOU CAN ENTER THE MARKET AT ANY PRICE LEVEL AFTER THE WEIGHTED MOVING AVERAGE PULLBACK @ ~3860.00
(Look for a bullish rejection candle or momentum shift confirming the bounce)
🚨 Stop Loss (The "Escape Route"):
This is thief SL @ ~3760.00
Place your SL after the breakout I mentioned price level. This level is below the recent swing low, invalidating the bullish structure if breached.
🎯 Take Profit (The "Cash Out"):
OUR target @ ~4150.00
This aligns with a strong resistance + overbought + trap is there so kindly escape with profits. We're taking profits before price potentially reverses.
⚖️ Risk & Reward Management (The Fine Print)
Note to the Thief OGs: Dear Ladies & Gentleman, I am not recommending to set only my SL & TP. It's your own choice. You can make money, then take money at your own risk. Manage your position size accordingly! The provided levels are a framework, not a financial command.
🌍 Related Pairs to Watch (The Intel)
TVC:DXY (U.S. Dollar Index): Gold's arch-nemesis! 👊 A weaker DXY often means a stronger Gold price. Watch this for correlation cues.
$EUR/USD: The biggest component of the DXY. A strong Euro often pressures the Dollar, which can boost Gold.
$XAG/USD (Silver): Gold's volatile cousin. Often moves in the same direction but with more amplitude.
AMEX:GLD / AMEX:IAU : Gold ETF proxies; they track the physical metal's price.
Key Correlation Point: Gold is typically inversely correlated with the U.S. Dollar. Keep one eye on the Dollar Index for confirmation of your Gold trade's direction.
✨ Community Boost
“If you find value in my analysis, a 👍 and 🚀 boost is much appreciated — it helps me share more setups with the community!”
#Gold #XAUUSD #Trading #SwingTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #Finance #Pullback #WMA #DXY #Forex
Gold Elliott Wave Analysis – Potential Wave (4) Completion ZoneGold (XAU/USD) on the daily chart appears to be completing a classic Elliott Wave 5-wave impulse structure. After a strong rally into the wave (3) high, price is currently retracing toward the projected wave (4) correction zone.
The highlighted support area aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels:
0.5 retracement: around $3,845
0.618 retracement: around $3,718
This region also coincides with the lower boundary of the ascending channel, adding confluence for potential bullish reversal.
If wave (4) finds support within this zone and maintains structure, a new impulsive rally toward wave (5) could begin — targeting the upper trendline resistance near $4,500–$4,600.
Gold bulls are powerless to recover rebound continues to bearishThis week, global financial markets are focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. Gold prices typically have a negative correlation with real interest rates. Rate cuts typically reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, thus supporting prices. In the current environment of rising risk appetite, even if the Fed cuts rates as expected, gold's safe-haven appeal may be offset by trade optimism.
Yesterday, gold prices broke through the psychologically important 4,000 level as expected, and we saw significant returns on both short positions. After consolidating below the 4,160 high, gold is poised to break lower, generally in line with expectations. The daily candlestick pattern formed a doji candlestick pattern, followed by a mid-sized bearish candlestick pattern that engulfed the lower level, continuing its downward trend. The daily and weekly corrections are still ongoing. The daily chart finally closed at 3982, with a long black candlestick with a long upper shadow. Today's market continues to short. Gold's resistance level is currently moving downwards. The four-hour chart is entirely filled with long black candlesticks. Any rebound is easily swallowed by these large black candlesticks. These large black candlestick bodies demonstrate the strength of the bears, breaking through all support levels. The only lower support level is around 3950. If this breaks down, bears will target around 3800. Therefore, we will continue to focus on long positions, clearly at yesterday's support point, around 4040.
From a technical analysis perspective, gold is showing clear bearish signals on the one-hour chart. The moving averages are showing a bearish alignment, with the short-term moving averages pushing downward, indicating that short-term bears have the upper hand. Furthermore, the MACD indicator's death cross continues to diverge, and the growing green momentum bar further confirms the downward price trend. During the Asian session, watch for a rebound in gold prices to the 4035-4040 range. A small position can be entered into a short position with a stop-loss above 4050 to protect against losses from a sudden price reversal. Target prices can initially target the 4000 mark, with further downside potential targeting the 3980-3950 range.
15 minute structure updateThe sellers' target for this time frame has been touched.
In the meantime, the 4051 liquidity level has been built, which will be a return to the liquidity hunt and a pullback to the specified support areas, which will be the selling position for lower targets and liquidity. In the 1-hour time frame, the current bottom has sellers' liquidity, so the sellers will return the price to this bottom.
Analysis link:
Gold Towards ATH after Healthy Correction!Gold showed a very healthy correction recently after going up for 9 weeks straight.
Now, on 1H timeframe, it is forming a Bullish Trend after showing a minor Bullish Divergence on RSI. If it continues to go up, we can take a Buy-Stop trade, longing it for a 1:2 setup. However, if you guys want, you can ride it till its current ATH which is very likely to hit.
Let's see how it goes.
Gold (XAU/USD) M30 Smart Money Setup – Price Action Analysis📊 Current Structure:
On the M30 timeframe, CHOCH (Change of Character) has formed around 4186, confirming a possible bearish shift in market structure. The previous low stands at 4004, which acts as a major liquidity zone and final bearish target.
🧠 Smart Money Concept Overview
After the CHOCH at 4186, Gold is expected to retrace to premium zones before continuing its bearish move. The market has created two Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) — potential supply areas where price may react.
⚙️ Key Zones
1️⃣ 1st FVG (4231 – 4246) → Minor retracement zone 🟠
2️⃣ 2nd FVG (4302 – 4322) → Strong supply zone 🔴
📍 Stop Loss (SL): 4346
🎯 Target (TP): 4001
🧭 Trading Plan
Wait for price to tap into any FVG zone (4231–4322).
Confirm bearish reaction using candlestick rejection or CHOCH on lower TFs (M5–M15).
Enter short positions aiming for the 4001 target.
Risk management: keep SL tight above 4346.
📉 Conclusion
Gold currently shows strong bearish pressure after CHOCH confirmation. Smart money traders will be looking for short entries from FVG zones toward the 4001 liquidity target. Manage your trade wisely and follow structure confirmation before entry. 🧩
💡 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Always do your own research before trading. 📚






















