XAU/USD – Captain Vincent Short-term Plan (15m Update)🔎 Captain’s Log – Short-term Outlook
Gold has just made a strong breakout and is now retesting the resistance area around 3616 – 3619.
On the 15m chart, the structure remains bullish, with expectations of a pullback to support before continuing higher.
📈 Captain’s Chart – Technical View
Golden Harbor (Buy Scalp / Breakout): 3604 – 3606
Captain’s Shield (SL): 3597
Targets: 3612 → 3618 → 3625 → 363x
Storm Breaker (Sell Zone – ATH Test): 3632 – 3636
Captain’s Shield (SL): 3642
Targets: 3625 → 3620 → 3615 → 3610
🎯 Captain’s Map – Trade Scenarios
✅ Golden Harbor (BUY Scalp – Breakout)
Entry: 3604 – 3606
SL: 3597
TP: 3612 → 3618 → 3625 → 363x
🌊 Storm Breaker (SELL Zone – ATH Test)
Entry: 3632 – 3636
SL: 3642
TP: 3625 → 3620 → 3615 → 3610
Captain’s Note ⚓
“The bullish wind still fills the sails, keeping the short-term trend favorable for voyages from Golden Harbor 🏝️ (3604 – 3606).
Quick boarding 🚤 at Storm Breaker 🌊 (3632 – 3636) is only for sailors who enjoy short-term waves, as it is a strong resistance zone. The golden ship continues its northern course, riding the prevailing bullish tide.”
GOLDMINICFD trade ideas
Gold Buklls Taking Control - XAUUSD 9 Sep 25
Gold has been ripping higher, breaking key resistance levels and showing no sign of weakness.
🔑 Why Gold is Rallying
COT Data: Net long positions on Gold surged by +35,219 contracts → clear sign of institutional accumulation.
USD Weakness: Dollar losing steam (check EUR/USD COT net longs +119k). That fuels upside in metals.
Macro: Sticky inflation + Fed pause expectations = tailwind for Gold.
📊 Technical Setup
Price reclaimed $3,640–$3,645 zone (former resistance → support).
Higher lows forming across Tokyo, London, and NY sessions = strong intraday demand.
EMAs (9/15/21) all fanned upward = bullish momentum intact.
🎯 Trade Plan
Buy Zone: $3,645 – $3,650 (retest of support / EMA cluster).
Targets:
TP1: $3,666 (75% Fib Extension)
TP2: $3,679 (100% Secondary Extension)
TP3: $3,692+ (125% Extension, new highs)
Invalidation: Below $3,620 (Daily Pivot + structure break).
⚠️ Shorts only make sense if we get a 4H close back under $3,620 with momentum → otherwise, it’s a dip-buy market.
XAUUSD Long Price broke out explosively from the bullish triangle formation during the NFP release, creating a Fair Value Gap (FVG) and simultaneously breaking market structure. This confirms bullish momentum.
I'll be looking for buy opportunities as price retraces into the FVG zone, which also aligns with the retest of the structure break, offering a strong confluence area for potential entries.
Gold (XAUUSD) Bullish Flag Breakout: Rally ContinuationThe precious metal Gold (XAUUSD) appears poised for a strong bullish continuation, as price action on the 1-hour timeframe reveals a classic Bullish Flag formation. This technical setup is a powerful trend continuation pattern that typically signals the resumption of an existing bullish trend following a period of consolidation.
Let’s break down the structure, targets, and trade strategy behind this pattern.
1. Formation of the Bullish Flag Pattern
After a sharp upside move from the 3580 zone, Gold entered a consolidation phase marked by a downward-sloping parallel channel—forming the “flag” after the “flagpole.” This structure is typical of a bull flag: strong impulse move (flagpole) followed by a corrective pullback within a channel (flag).
Flagpole height: From approximately 3580 to 3650, giving us a pole height of ~70 points.
Flag range: Price oscillated within a descending channel, respecting both upper resistance and lower support trendlines.
Support held strong near the 3580 level, which also acted as a base for the earlier rally.
2. Breakout Confirmation
As of now, the price is attempting a breakout above the flag’s upper boundary. If the breakout is sustained above 3650, this would confirm the bull flag pattern and could trigger aggressive buying interest.
3. Projected Upside Targets
Once the breakout is confirmed, the projected targets can be calculated by adding the flagpole height (~70 points) to the breakout point (~3650). Here are the levels to watch:
Target 1: 3672.67
Initial target post-breakout, suitable for short-term traders or partial booking.
Target 2: 3700.88
Mid-level resistance; a decisive close above this would fuel more momentum.
Projected Target: 3734.08
This is the full measured move based on the flagpole height and would mark a complete bullish continuation.
4. Trade Setup and Strategy
Traders can consider this a momentum continuation opportunity, with the following plan:
Entry: On confirmed breakout above 3650, preferably on a 1H candle close or retest.
Stop Loss: Below flag support zone, ideally below 3620 to avoid false breakouts.
Targets: 3672.67 / 3700.88 / 3734.08
Risk-Reward: Approx. 1:2.5 or higher, depending on entry zone and SL.
5. Risk Management and Caution
Always wait for confirmation before entering. Early breakouts without volume can reverse.
Avoid over-leveraging—flag breakouts sometimes retest before the real move starts.
Watch for macro events (especially U.S. CPI, NFP, FOMC), which can create volatility in gold.
Conclusion: Bullish Continuation on the Horizon
The technical structure in Gold supports a bullish continuation. The breakout from this bull flag pattern gives a clear, rule-based setup for intraday or swing traders. With defined targets and a logical stop-loss level, this is a high-probability trade setup, especially in a trending market.
If bulls hold the breakout zone, 3734+ could be seen in the coming sessions.
Gold (XAU/USD) - Look at Williams %RGold (XAU/USD) - Look at Williams %R
Take a look at the Buy-the-Dip Opportunities in Gold for Swing-Trader whenever Williams %% was in the lower extreme in H8.
We are already slowly coming down. I'd be inclined to take longs in the area I marked on the chart.
If you're a swing-trader, that is a great opportunity.
Let me know what you think,
Meikel
Gold trend analysis continues to rise after consolidationGold trend: Today, gold focuses on the impact of CPI data, which may impact the temporary technical view. Today, the Asian and European sessions maintain a low-long bullish trend, with support at 3620-3610 and short-term focus on 3645-3655. The US data has little impact, so it depends on the range. If the data has a large impact, focus on 3600 below and 3680-3690 above. Gold has risen unilaterally in two transactions and fluctuated for one trading day this week. The current high of gold is 3675, and the decline is only around 3620. Therefore, it is obvious that gold is rising slowly under the bullish trend, and even if it fluctuates, it will not fall much. Then, to determine the direction, we must look at the upward space under the direction. We still don’t guess the top, but under the influence of data, we still have to discuss whether there will be a change in direction or a shift in strength in the near future.
From a technical point of view, the daily line is still above the support of the 5-day moving average. If the 5-day moving average is not broken, there is no possibility of weakening. Although the 4-hour Bollinger Bands have closed, the middle track has not broken, and it is difficult to have a major adjustment. Therefore, the current market is still in a strong position. It is not clear whether gold has peaked or has a larger adjustment space. Therefore, if you want to trade, you still have to go long on the decline. So, today's market can be viewed in two steps. The European session is expected to fluctuate upward. Operate at key points and go long in the 3620-3610 support area below. Look at the 3645-3655 area above. If the US data has a greater impact, pay attention to the gains and losses of the 3600 key point below. It is still a good time to go long if it does not break.
Trade Idea for the XAUUSD | Short-term SellingXAUUSD Trade Idea after a long time.
After a series of bullish movements, I am now looking to short the currency pair.
Just spotted a quick 4H Bearish - Head & Shoulders pattern, looking forward to the multiple timeframe analysis.
I will also share the entry position once the price moves in the desired direction, which is Downward.
Let me know about your opinions in the comments section down below...
Thank you and many regards,
OANDA:XAUUSD
9/8: Watch Resistance at 3594–3600, Support at 3560–3556Good morning everyone!
🔹 Key Support Levels
30M Chart: 3573–3562
1H Chart: 3571 / 3563–3556
2H Chart: 3573 / 3560–3556 / 3528
1D Chart: 3564 / 3507–3498
🔹 Key Resistance Levels
3594–3600 / 3608–3621
🔹 Intraday Trading Strategy
Sell on rallies; consider buying on pullbacks to support.
Last week, gold extended its upward trend, testing the 3600 area for the first time, supported by NFP data. Overall performance was moderate. The main reason was a conservative approach — focusing more on selling at resistance while cautiously buying on dips, which resulted in missing two major rallies. The profits captured from retracements were relatively small compared to the strong upward moves.
The current rally has been driven largely by expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, this bullish factor now appears to be largely priced in, with gold technically in overbought territory. In the short term, risk management is crucial: avoid chasing prices at historical highs. A safer strategy remains buying on pullbacks, which may be less aggressive but significantly reduces downside risks. Ultimately, the choice of strategy depends on individual trading styles.
GOLD (XAUUSD): The Next Potential Resistances
As Gold is now trading in a no man's land, here are
2 potentially strong resistances that I spotted.
Psychological Resistance 1: 3550
Psychological Resistance 2: 3600
The price is heading toward Resistance 1.
It will most likely be the next goal for the buyers.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Where will this new uptrend land ?Upon reaching previous ATHs we have seen slight retracement and consolidation varying in length before the next bull push has occurred, last consolidation lasted 4 months finally breaking last week. So where will this one land before the expected rate cut on the 15th or will it surge beyond all expections off the back of a cut ?
Gold’s Mysterious Surge: Breakout or Bull Trap? Gold’s Mysterious Surge: Breakout or Bull Trap?
Earlier today at 2 AM London time, Gold unexpectedly jumped from 3437 to 3489.50, gaining +1.55%—without any clear catalyst.
What’s puzzling is that price broke above a strong resistance zone near 3450, which had held firm for months despite repeated tests. This breakout raises questions.
We could point to familiar geopolitical tensions—Ukraine-Russia, Israel-Gaza, or even Trump-era tariffs—but none of these are new. These stories have been priced in for a long time, and unless they escalate, they shouldn’t drive fresh momentum.
So why is gold rising now?
Could central banks or hedge funds know something we don’t?
If so, this could suggest market manipulation—where insiders act on information before it becomes public.
It’s worth noting: Gold didn’t reach this level even during the Israel–Iran–US conflict, which makes today’s move even more suspicious.
If this is a manipulated rally, gold could continue climbing artificially. But if it’s just a false breakout, we might be looking at a bull trap—with a sharp reversal from the 3500 zone.
Under these uncertain conditions, I prefer to stay out of the market. Trading without clarity is riskier than missing a move.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Gold 1H – CPI Liquidity Play Before ExpansionGold on the 1H timeframe is consolidating near 3,633 after multiple ChoCHs and engineered liquidity grabs. With CPI news today, price is expected to sweep both premium and discount liquidity zones. The structure suggests engineered spikes toward 3,688–3,691 or dips into 3,595–3,592 before expansion.
________________________________________
📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔴 SELL ZONE 3,643 – 3,645 (SL 3,650): Premium supply pocket for short-term rejection.
• 🔴 SELL ZONE 3,688 – 3,691 (SL 3,696): Premium sweep zone targeting 3,680 → 3,670 → 3,660 → 3,650 with extended open target at 3,625.
• 🟢 BUY ZONE 3,595 – 3,592 (SL 3,587): Discount demand zone targeting 3,615 → 3,625 → 3,635 → 3,645 with extended open target at 3,685.
________________________________________
📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔻 Sell Setup – Premium Rejection (Intraday)
• Entry: 3,643 – 3,645
• Stop Loss: 3,650
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,630
TP2: 3,620
TP3: 3,600
👉 Scalp opportunity if CPI spikes price into this supply zone.
🔻 Sell Setup – CPI Premium Sweep
• Entry: 3,688 – 3,691
• Stop Loss: 3,696
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,680
TP2: 3,670
TP3: 3,660
TP4: 3,650
Open: 3,625
👉 Expect engineered CPI move into premium liquidity before reversal.
🔺 Buy Setup – CPI Discount Sweep
• Entry: 3,595 – 3,592
• Stop Loss: 3,587
• Take Profits:
TP1: 3,615
TP2: 3,625
TP3: 3,635
TP4: 3,645
Open: 3,685
👉 Ideal entry if CPI drives gold into deep discount demand before expansion.
________________________________________
🔑 Strategy Note
CPI will dictate volatility and smart money may sweep liquidity both sides. Key bias favors:
• Scalp sells at 3,643–3,645
• Deeper swing sells at 3,688–3,691
• High R:R buys at 3,595–3,592
Risk management is essential — expect fake-outs before expansion.
XAUUSD | Bullish Setup from Demand Zone towards HTF LiquidityPrice is currently respecting a higher timeframe demand zone (3638–3642) after a sweep of liquidity (SSL) and a confirmed break of structure (BOS).
This indicates potential continuation to the upside targeting higher liquidity levels.
Plan:
• Looking for buy opportunities within the demand zone.
• Stop Loss: Below the zone (invalidates setup).
• Take Profit 1: 3652 (intra-day liquidity).
• Take Profit 2: 3676 (HTF BSL target).
Risk-to-Reward:
Approx. 1:2 to TP1 and up to 1:6 if extended to TP2.
Notes:
• Partial profits at TP1, then move SL to breakeven.
• Setup invalid if price closes below 3634 demand zone.
Gold Trading Strategy Essentials for Tuesday, September 9th:
I. Core Drivers and Risks (Fundamentals)
Bullient Factors Dominate:
Expectations of a Stronger Rate Cut: The US August non-farm payroll data fell far short of expectations, leaving the market with near-100% expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. A weaker US dollar and falling US Treasury yields continue to favor gold.
Strong Safe-Haven Demand: The escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and heightened global geopolitical risks are boosting gold's safe-haven appeal.
Solid Structural Support: Continued gold purchases by global central banks (such as the People's Bank of China) provide long-term support for gold prices.
Potential Risk Points:
Data Risk: US CPI and PPI data will be released. If inflation data exceeds expectations and is strong, it could weaken expectations of a rate cut and weigh on gold prices.
Technical pullback: The price of gold has risen sharply this year, and the short-term technical indicator (RSI) has diverged, and there is pressure for a technical pullback.
Federal Reserve Signals: Be wary of volatility triggered by any hawkish signals in the outcome of the interest rate meeting or the policy statement.
II. Key Technical Levels (Spot Gold)
Current Price: 3645
Resistance: 3658 (Recent High) → 3700 (Psychological Barrier)
Support: 3620 (Initial Support) → 3600 (Key Psychological Level) → 3550.46 (Strong Support)
III. Trading Strategy and Risk Management
Overall Approach: The medium- to long-term bullish trend remains unchanged, but the market is currently at a critical resistance level. Avoid chasing highs. The primary strategy is to buy on dips after pullbacks, supplemented by using a very light position to capture short-term pullbacks.
Buy on Pullbacks
Entry Area: Expect a small long position when the 3600-3620 range stabilizes (for more cautious traders, wait for the 3550-3570 area).
Stop loss: Place it at $8-10 below the entry level (e.g., for a long order at $3,600, the stop loss is set at $3,590-3,592).
Target: First look at 3650 - 3658, after breaking through, you can hold and look up to 3680 - 3700.
Aggressive Short-Term Selling (Experienced Traders Only)
Entry Signal: A rapid price rise to 3658 or above, accompanied by clear resistance signals (such as a long upper shadow on the 15-minute/1-hour candlestick chart or a top divergence on the RSI).
Position: A small position.
Stop-loss: Must be set strictly $5 above the entry level (e.g., for a short position at 3660, stop-loss at 3665).
Target: Enter and exit quickly to capture 20$-30$pullback profits (such as around 3630).
Position Management: Risk exposure on a single trade must be strictly controlled within 1-2% of total capital.
Forced Stop-loss: A stop-loss must be set on all trades to prevent unexpected large losses.
Buy Gold @3642.00 best trade of the day🟡 XAUUSD Buy Setup – Precision Scalping Idea
Trade Parameters:
- Entry: Buy @ 3642.00
- Stop Loss: 3638.00
- Take Profit 1: 3650.00
📊 Technical Justification
- Price is rebounding off minor intraday support near 3640, showing bullish momentum.
- Tight SL below recent wick lows minimizes downside exposure.
- TP1 targets a clean resistance zone from previous hourly highs.
liquidity sweepA liquidity sweep is a term used in financial markets and trading to describe a situation where a large market order moves through multiple price levels, quickly consuming available liquidity in the order book. This can happen in both directions—up (buy-side sweep) or down (sell-side sweep).
🔍 Definition:
A liquidity sweep occurs when a market participant aggressively executes a large order that "sweeps" through the order book, taking out multiple levels of bid or ask prices in quick succession.
Gold 1H Outlook | Key Levels to Watch – 3595 | 3625 | 3470Gold is trading near 3594 after a strong bullish move. On the 1-hour chart, price has been following a rising trendline which shows that buyers are still active.
Here’s what matters for traders today:
🔹 Key Support Levels:
3560 → intraday support where buyers are stepping in.
3525 → major structural support + trendline confluence.
🔹 Resistance Zones:
3595 → first resistance, market is already reacting here.
3625 → next upside objective if buyers stay in control.
📌 Bias:
As long as price holds above 3525, gold remains bullish. Upside path: 3595 → 3625.
A confirmed break below 3525 would mean a shift in structure. In that case, sellers may push price towards 3470
Bullish market Hi traders
Given the sharp and strong upward trend in gold last week and the fundamental news in the market, I expect gold to rise this week as well.
I think as long as the psychological support level of 3500 holds for gold, it is not far off to see the 3640-3660 level.
Gold may make a correction to 3565 or even deeper correction to 3539 and then move towards the stated targets.
One scenario is shown with a green line and the other with a purple line on the chart.
Possible positions this week
A:Suitable prices for BUY positions
1)3565
2)3539
B:Suitable prices for SELL positions
1)3640-3660
(Of course, with approval from the market and the type of candles)
This is just an analysis and everyone is responsible for their own work.
Hoping for a good and profitable week.
GOLD → One step away from 3500. Consolidation. What next?FX:XAUUSD has been rallying towards 3500 since the opening of the session, and the market has every chance of testing this level. Consolidation or correction may form before the next breakout...
Gold resumed its growth at the beginning of the week, reaching five-month highs around $3480 amid declining risk appetite and expectations of Fed policy easing. Trading activity remains low due to holidays in the US and Canada.
Key drivers : Weak Asian markets and uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policy are supporting interest in gold. The probability of a rate cut in September is estimated at 90% after last week's PCE data.
Overall, the market maintains its momentum towards record levels ($3500), but low liquidity may increase volatility.
Technically , gold is strongly bullish. The price is striving to test the ATH - 3500. Before that, consolidation or a retest of the 3469-3460 zone may form. The dollar is weak at the moment and continues to trend downward, which generally supports gold.
Resistance levels: 3484.8, 3500
Support levels: 3469.5, 3460
Undoubtedly, after consolidation or correction, gold may reach its target. However, continued growth beyond 3500 may be questionable due to a lack of energy, as the market has spent it to reach 3500. Accordingly, a false breakout of the ATH could trigger a strong profit-taking phase, which in turn could lead to a sell-off and correction.
Best regards, R. Linda!