Trade ideas
XAU/USD 09 December 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 20 October 2025.
Price has printed as per previous intraday expectation by printing a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms, bullish pullback phase initiation.
Price is currently trading within an established internal range, however, I will continue to monitor price with regards to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either discount of 50% internal EQ, or H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 4,380.990.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as yesterday's analysis dated 02 December 2025.
Price has printed as per analysis dated 14 November 2025 where I mentioned price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,245.195.
Price subsequently printed a bearish CHoCH, however, as mentioned yesterday, I would closely monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Price did not pull back with any significance, therefore, I will apply discretion and not classify an iBOS. I have marked this with red dotted and dashed lines.
Price has since printed another bearish CHoCH.
We are currently trading within an established internal range, however, as per yesterday, I will continue to monitor price with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 4,264.700.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s tariff announcements, particularly against China, are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
XAUUSD – H1 is in a correction phase, watch for sell ...XAUUSD – H1 is in a correction phase, watch for sell retracement – buy at Fibo + VAL zone
Gold is currently in a downtrend structure on H1, the current wave is just a retracement in the downtrend after last weekend.
The important price zone to watch is around 4.164 – if this zone is not broken, the H1 downtrend remains intact. Below that, the market is "targeting" the 50% Fibo cluster + VAL zone around 4.125–4.132, where buy liquidity is concentrated.
🎯 SCENARIO 1 – SELL RETRACEMENT IN DOWN STRUCTURE
Sell: 4.208 – 4.212
SL: 4.216
TP: 4.190 – 4.176 – 4.150 – 4.130
Reason: 4.208–4.212 is the timing sell zone on the chart:
Confluence with the nearest resistance zone of H1.
Located just above the "strong support" zone that was breached, now acting as new resistance.
If the price retraces here, I prioritize selling in line with the H1 downtrend, targeting the bottom zone 4.19x – 4.176, deeper to 4.150–4.130 near the Fibo bottom zone.
⭐️ SCENARIO 2 – BUY AT BUY ZONE FIBO + VAL 4.125–4.132
Buy: 4.125 – 4.132
SL: below 4.132 (according to personal capital management, I do not allow the price to break deeply into this zone)
TP: 4.155 – 4.190 – 4.225
Reason: The 4.125–4.132 zone is the Buy zone confluence of VAL + 50% Fibonacci of the previous uptrend, also where the volume profile shows a large volume of transactions.
If after the sell wave, the price sweeps here and a clear bounce reaction appears, I consider this the zone to start accumulating BUY positions for the retracement up to 4.155–4.19x, further to 4.225.
1️⃣ Basic Context – Fed and Rate Cut Expectations
The probability of the Fed cutting 25bps in the upcoming meeting continues to rise sharply:
FedWatch: ~89.4%
Polymarket: ~95%
This indicates that the market is almost pricing in a loosening decision, creating a positive foundation for gold in the medium term, although short-term deep corrections may still occur due to profit-taking and position restructuring.
In summary: macro supports gold, but H1 is still in a correction phase; instead of bottom-fishing mid-way, I choose to sell retracement at resistance zones, buy at clear Fibo + VAL zones.
2️⃣ Action Plan & Risk Management
Only trade at defined zones Sell: 4.208–4.212, SL 4.216, TP 4.190–4.176–4.150–4.130.
Buy: 4.125–4.132, SL below 4.132, TP 4.155–4.190–4.225.
Do not enter orders between the 4.16x–4.19x zone, avoid being "whipsawed" in the sideways wave of the retracement.
For each scenario, the maximum risk is 1–2% of the account, do not widen SL even when Fed news is about to be released.
If you find this perspective useful, follow the TradingView account and leave a comment on whether you lean towards sell retracement or wait for deep buy at the Fibo zone today – I always read feedback before posting the next article.
Elise | XAUUSD – Bearish Continuation OutlookOANDA:XAUUSD
Price has reacted strongly from the LIQ PV Zone High (4,264 area), showing repeated rejection and failure to hold above 4,226 structure. A short-term range has formed near resistance, indicating absorption of buy orders and potential distribution. The break beneath the range confirms bearish intent.
Market structure remains bearish while trading below 4,226 and a move toward demand zone / liquidity sweep region is the higher-probability scenario.
Bearish Scenario (Primary Bias) 📉
If price continues sustaining below 4,226, downside continuation is expected.
🎯 Target 1 → 4,200 – 4,194
🎯 Target 2 → 4,174 (Main Demand Retest)
🎯 Final Target → 4,155 Liquidity Sweep Zone
A clean approach to the demand block may trigger buy orders later, but first expectation remains bearish until structure shifts.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only, not financial advice.
The Real Reason Retail Traders LoseA clean explanation for new traders who want to stop trading noise.
Most beginners don’t fail because “trading is hard.”
They fail because they learn the wrong approach from day one.
This idea shows the exact difference between how beginners analyze charts versus how professionals read the market — using your before/after chart as the visual proof.
## 1. Beginner Charts Are Full of Noise
Look at the left chart.
This is how most beginners trade:
Dozens of trendlines
Patterns inside patterns
RSI, MACD, EMAs
Subjective S/R levels
Arrows predicting future price
No liquidity analysis
No volume logic
No defined invalidation
Beginners draw more than they analyze.
The result?
❌ Conflicting signals
❌ Emotional entries
❌ No understanding of why price should move
❌ Random predictions instead of structured planning
A chart filled with drawings creates a false feeling of analysis — but provides no edge.
## 2. Indicators Don’t Predict Price
Retail traders rely on:
RSI
MACD
Stochastics
EMA crossovers
These indicators offer comfort, but:
They lag
They contradict each other
They ignore liquidity
They cannot explain market context
Indicators summarize the past.
They do not anticipate institutional behavior.
## 3. Signal Providers Don’t Trade Their Own Signals
Most retail signal providers earn from subscriptions, not trading.
This is why:
Their entries are late
There is no SL or risk plan
They hide losses
They copy signals
They rarely show real executions
If someone cannot explain the reasoning behind a trade, they likely didn’t trade it themselves.
Follower count means nothing.
## 4. What Professionals Actually Look At
Now look at the right chart.
A professional chart is clean and focused:
VWAP (fair value)
Anchored Volume Profile
Liquidity zones
Imbalance/efficiency areas
Defined invalidation (SL)
Logical target (TP)
No noise
No predictions — just context
Professionals don’t trade drawings.
They trade volume, value, and liquidity.
Price does not move because of trendlines or patterns.
Price moves because of where liquidity sits.
## 5. Evaluate Any Trader’s Idea Before Following Them
Before trusting a trader or a signal:
Ask:
Do they use volume and liquidity?
Do they define invalidation?
Is their chart clean or full of noise?
Do they explain the trade logic?
Does the idea make sense if you remove the drawings?
You can even paste their idea into ChatGPT to test the logic.
If the idea collapses under simple questioning, it was never a valid setup.
## 6. How to Stop Losing Money
A simple framework that works:
✓ Use VWAP and Volume Profile
Understand where value and liquidity sit.
✓ Keep your chart clean
Noise = bad decisions.
✓ Define SL and TP before entry
Not after.
✓ Avoid prediction arrows
Trade reactions, not guesses.
✓ Ignore follower counts
Marketing ≠ skill.
✓ Skip any trade you don’t understand
Simplicity is strength.
## Final Message
Most beginners lose because they trade what they see on the chart.
Professionals win because they trade what moves the chart:
liquidity, volume, value, and structure.
If you stop chasing noise and start studying how price delivers liquidity, you will already be far ahead of most traders.
XAUUSD Daily – Perfect Bearish Channel Retest & Distribution SetXAUUSD Daily – Perfect Bearish Channel Retest & Distribution SetupGold has been trading in a clean rising channel since September, but over the last 6 weeks it has formed a clear distribution pattern: Multiple tests and rejections exactly at the channel top + psychological $4,200 zone
Sharp bearish pinbar + engulfing candles on high volume at the highs
Price now breaking below the short-term bullish trendline with acceleration
Daily close below $4,190 confirms loss of momentum
Structure has flipped bearish while still inside the bigger channel → ideal risk/reward short.Short Signal Direction: Sell / Short Gold
Entry: 4,170 – 4,190 (current retest of broken trendline)
Stop Loss: 4,235 (above channel top)
Take Profit 1: 4,080
Take Profit 2: 4,000 – 3,970 (channel midline & previous breakout level)
R:R: 1:4+
#XAUUSD #Gold #ShortGold #Bearish #ChannelRetest #PreciousMetals #TechnicalAnalysis #CommoditiesNot financial advice – trading involves significant risk of loss. Always do your own research and use proper risk management!
Gold (XAU/USD) – Potential Reversal Zone and Bullish Reaction ScThis chart illustrates price action on the XAU/USD 30-minute timeframe, highlighting a projected reversal area where buyers may become active. The green zone marks a potential demand region, supported by the lower trendline. The blue arrows represent possible bullish scenarios if price reacts upward from this zone, suggesting a move toward higher resistance levels. The chart includes moving averages for context and outlines a speculative forecast rather than a guaranteed outcome.
XAU / USD Daily ChartHello traders. Just a quick post on the daily to make my statement that all wicks get filled. I will be watching what the overnight session did tomorrow when I get up. I will do some lower time frame analysis for the Pre NY volume. Hoping everyone had a good weekend. Patience is key. Never forget that for you to win a trade, someone or some entity must lose. The algo tradingbots used on leveraged accounts by the marketmakers sees every entry, SL and TP that is put in by you. They test your leverage or go on a stop loss hunt. Big G gets my thanks. Be well and trade the trend. Happy Sunday / Monday
XAUUSD Excellent week closing As i discussed throughout my Friday's session
What was my stance & Postions:
I took buy in my early trade before NY session and target was 4236 which xauusd delivered
I have waited for Gold to deliver decent pullback from supply area which i mentioned 4245-46 and I found such on $4245-4250 Structural supply test. I have engaged big Lot set of Selling orders ($4265 Stop) and closed my orders on $4204 & 4200 in extension .
I want to take this moment to congratulate the traders who followed my calls and patiently held their orders. Great job — enjoy the profits and have a great weekend.
XAUUSD Bullish Structure Intact Ready for Takeoff📊 XAUUSD Analysis – Pullback Complete, Bulls Regaining Control
Gold pulled back sharply after tapping the upper resistance zone, but the correction found support right inside the Ichimoku cloud + previous breakout region, which acts as a high-probability bullish reaction zone.
Price has already shown a strong bounce from this support, indicating that buyers are defending structure and preparing for another leg higher.
Your chart points toward a likely retest and continuation path, suggesting the uptrend remains intact.
---
🔍 Key Technical Points
Trend: Still bullish despite the sharp correction.
Pullback: Price corrected into cloud support + previous breakout base.
Reaction: Strong bullish rejection shows buyers stepping back in.
Outlook: Expecting a move toward 4,330 – 4,350 (resistance retest).
Continuation Signal: Higher-low formation followed by a push above 4,310.
Invalidation: Break below 4,265 weakens the bullish structure.
XAUUSD H1 | Bullish Bounce Off Pullback SupportMomentum: Bullish
Price is currently above the ichimoku cloud.
Buy entry: 4,281.87
- Pullback support
- 50% Fib retracement
Stop Loss: 4,238.93
- Pullback support
- 78.6% Fib retracement
Take Profit: 4,347.77
- Swing high resistance
High Risk Investment Warning
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com/uk ), Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com/eu ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com/en ): Losses can exceed deposits.
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XAUUSD at Critical Confluence Wedge Resistance Meets Fib ClusterPrice is climbing within a rising wedge and is currently reacting at the 0.79–0.705 Fibonacci zone. If bullish momentum holds, price may extend toward the upper wedge resistance near 4,360–4,380. However, rejection from this zone could trigger a corrective pullback toward the mid-trendline or the 4,100–4,000 support area.
XAUUSD Bullish Continuation Setup - Targeting $4400 FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
XAUUSD is currently trading within a clear ascending channel on the 4-hour chart, indicating a strong short-to-medium-term uptrend. After a recent correction, the price found solid support on the lower channel boundary (around Nov 25th) and has since broken above a key diagonal resistance line.
We are anticipating a bullish continuation move, following the path of the projected arrow.
Trade Plan: I'm looking for a classic breakout and retest setup to confirm the upward movement.
Expected Entry: I'll be looking to enter on a pullback that retests the broken diagonal trendline and the key support zone around $4,123 - $4,157. This offers a high-probability entry point near the channel support.
Target: The primary target is the top of the ascending channel and the previous high, set at $4,381.73 / $4,400.00.
Invalidation Zone (Stop Loss): My trade is invalidated if the price closes below the swing low at 4,031.61, as this would signal a breakdown of the entire bullish channel structure.
Current Status: The price is currently consolidating near 4,218.00. Watching for the anticipated retest before entering the long position!
Remember: Always manage your risk.
XAUUSD IDEA2. Technical Picture — Only Buy Pullbacks
The breakout above resistance has triggered strong upside momentum. After a long consolidation, this type of breakout typically leads to:
aggressive trend continuation
shallow pullbacks
strong buyer interest at every dip
In such a market, selling is risky, because bearish setups have a low probability of success.
Key Technical Zones
Resistance Levels:
4325
4335
4380
Support Levels (Buy Zones on Pullbacks):
4300
4285
4265
A pullback into any of these support zones would be a healthy correction and likely attract new buyers.
3. Expected Market Behavior
The rally is strong due to the long consolidation period before breakout.
Any correction should be short-lived, filled quickly by buyers.
As long as price remains above 4265, the bullish structure stays intact.
The baseline scenario: Continuation of the bull trend toward all-time highs (ATH).
4. Trading Perspective
✔ Only buy dips / pullbacks
✔ Avoid selling — market structure is strongly bullish
✔ Look for entries around 4300 → 4285 → 4265
✔ Next upside targets: 4325 → 4335 → 4380 → new ATH
Gold market Bullish Structure Firm, 4270 in SightGold market maintains a solid bullish stance, with momentum continuing to align perfectly with the prevailing daily trend projection. Price action remains constructive as the market steadily approaches the 4270 zone, a key supply region that now stands as the next major upside objective.follow for more insights, comment and boost idea .
Gold Holds Bullish Momentum After Breaking Key Resistance📊 Market Overview
Gold reacted exactly as expected: it touched the 4,318 zone, pulled back to 4,307, then bounced sharply and broke solidly above 4,320+. This price action shows that buyers remain in control, and bullish momentum continues to dominate the short-term trend. The prior sideways consolidation, followed by a strong breakout, has created room for an extended move upward.
📉 Technical Analysis
🔥 Key Resistance Levels
1. ~4,325 – 4,332 — current expansion zone
2. ~4,350 — major psychological and technical barrier
🟢 Nearest Support Levels
1. ~4,312 – 4,315 — breakout retest support
2. ~4,300 — key psychological and technical support
📊 EMA & Trend
• Price remains above the EMA09, confirming that the short-term uptrend is intact following the breakout. EMA continues to slope upward, indicating strong bullish momentum.
📉 Candlestick / Volume / Momentum
• A shallow retest followed by a strong rebound suggests increasing bullish momentum.
• The widening H1 candlestick range after the breakout signals growing buying pressure and solid market participation from bulls.
________________________________________
📌 Market View
Gold is clearly in a short-term uptrend after breaking strongly above the 4,300–4,318 resistance zone and holding above 4,320. As long as price stays above 4,315, the probability of reaching 4,325 – 4,332 remains high. However, if price falls below 4,312, a minor correction toward 4,300 may occur.
________________________________________
💡 Trade Ideas
🔼 Trend-Following BUY
Entry: 4,315 – 4,318
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
❌ SL: 4,310
🔻 Scalping SELL
Entry: 4,330 – 4,334
🎯 TP: 40 / 80 / 200 pips
❌ SL: 4,338
GOLD CYCLE ANALYSIS - WAVE 5 PATTERN EMERGING1️⃣ MACRO CONTEXT — GLOBAL CONDITIONS ARE RELOADING GOLD’S NEXT MEGA WAVE
Gold is entering a multi-year super-cycle powered by a rare combination of global instability and monetary shifts:
- Ongoing geopolitical conflicts (Ukraine, Middle East) continue to elevate safe-haven demand.
- U.S. economic momentum is slowing → rising recession probability.
- The market is pricing in aggressive Fed rate cuts in the coming year → real yields cooling, a direct catalyst for gold upside.
- Central banks (China, India, Turkey) are buying gold at the fastest pace in 50 years, diversifying away from the USD.
These macro foundations perfectly align with the repetitive growth cycle pattern displayed in chart.
2️⃣ STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS — GOLD IS REPEATING ITS 5-WAVE GROWTH CYCLE
On the 1D chart, gold is moving exactly within a classic 5-wave impulsive cycle:
Wave 1: A long accumulation zone → first breakout.
Wave 2: Shallow correction, maintaining higher lows.
Wave 3:The strongest expansion phase — identical to the 2024–2025 rally.
Wave 4: A consolidation wedge + sideway pullback inside the green zone you marked.
Wave 5 (Forming Now): The next explosive leg upward, projected by the white path on your chart.
Price is currently sitting inside Accumulation Zone 4, building energy before launching the final impulsive wave.
3️⃣TRADE SCENARIO — BASED ON STRUCTURE + MACRO ALIGNMENT
🔵 Primary Scenario: Bullish Super-Cycle Continues
If price holds the ascending yellow trendline and the Zone 4 support:
- Gold completes its corrective zigzag → then accelerates into Wave 5, aiming for new all-time highs.
Macro factors reinforce this bullish scenario:
- Fed rate cuts expected → lower real yields.
- USD entering a weakening cycle.
- Geopolitical tensions remain elevated.
- Central banks increasing gold reserves aggressively.
→ This is the dominant, high-probability scenario.
🔴 Secondary Scenario: Macro Repricing Pullback
Only triggered if:
- The Fed unexpectedly turns hawkish again (low probability),
- Geopolitical tensions ease significantly (low probability).
In that case, gold may retest lower zones:
3125 → 2523, exactly as marked on your chart.
4️⃣ RISK MANAGEMENT — WHEN THE MODEL FAILS
The super-cycle view becomes invalid if:
- Daily close breaks below the green Wave 4 accumulation zone.
- U.S. bond yields spike sharply higher again.
- DXY rallies above 115.
These conditions contradict the current global macro trajectory, so the probability remains low.
5️⃣ GOLD’S 5-WAVE PATTERN IS NOT RANDOM
Each accumulation zone (1–2–3–4) shares identical behavior:
- 6–12 weeks of tight consolidation
- Breakout triggered by macro news
- Each impulsive wave larger than the previous one
This is the footprint of a long-term impulsive super-cycle, currently unfolding from 2023–2026.
Given the macro backdrop and repeated structural pattern, Wave 5 is positioned to become the strongest and most extended wave of this entire cycle.
I
Gold Trade Plan 10/12/2025Dear Traders,
🟡 Gold Technical Analysis – XAUUSD (TF: 15m)
The price is still trading within a range between 4,150 – 4,225 and the medium-term bullish structure (according to the drawn uptrend lines) is still intact. As long as the price stays above these dynamic trendlines, the dominant scenario remains bullish.
✅ Key Zones
🔵 Support Zone 1 (High reaction probability):
4,153 – 4,165
This zone overlaps with:
Uptrend line
Previous horizontal support
Demand zone
If the price reaches this zone, a bullish reaction is expected.
🔵 Support Zone 2 (Stronger support):
4,128 – 4,138
If Support 1 breaks, this zone becomes the next target for price, with a high probability of a strong rebound.
🔴 Important Resistance Zone:
4,255 – 4,275
If the price rises, this zone is a logical target for buyers and a likely area for a pullback or correction. A valid break above it could trigger a new bullish wave.
📌 Trading Scenarios
✳️ Scenario 1 (Bounce from Support 1):
Expect a pullback to 4,153–4,165.
If bullish price action (confirming candlestick) appears, buying is reasonable.
🎯 Targets:
4,208
4,235
4,265
✳️ Scenario 2 (Drop to Support 2 and strong rebound):
If Support 1 breaks, 4,128–4,138 could act as a major correction low.
A strong reaction here may trigger a bullish wave toward higher resistance.
🎯 Targets:
4,185
4,220
4,260
✳️ Sell Scenario? (Riskier)
Selling is not recommended as long as the uptrend line remains intact.
Only if the trendline is broken and the price consolidates below 4,125, a deeper correction may occur.
🔔 Summary
The main trend is bullish.
As long as the price is above the trendline and 4,125, any pullback could be a buying opportunity.
The best entries are around the identified support zones.
Regards,
Alireza!
Gold: Test 4280 nowGold prices pierced the short-term resistance at 4260 and then charged directly toward the 4280 high in line with our ideas earlier, but encountered strong resistance at 4280 and retreated thereafter. It is critical to monitor the breakout potential of the 4280 level now, and impulsive chasing of upward moves is not recommended.
$XAUUSD ANALYSIS (READ CAPTION) THE GOLDEN BULL RETURNS hi traders! todays 10 DECEMBER 2K25 here is my today OANDA:XAUUSD BULLISH analysis please read it and send me your ideas for more analysis.
OANDA:XAUUSD working around (4110) gold prices are expected to trade higher, with potential resistance at (4270). The market is expected to move upwards from the pivot point 4210, targeting 4230. A break above 4250 could leads for further gains.
growing demand for safe haven assets, inflation concerns, and central bank purchases
BULLISH SCANRIO:
PIVOT POINT : $4210 (Breakout level)
TARGET 1: $4230 (key upside target)
SUPPLY ZONE: $4250 (Potential sell zone)
RESISTANCE ZONE: $4270 (Strong resistance level)
SUPPORT AREA: $4185 (Key support level)
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this analysis for informational purposes only. trade is own your risk






















