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Latest Gold Market Trend Analysis and Strategy: I. Core Viewpoint Gold has entered a period of high-level volatility after reaching a new all-time high. The bullish trend remains intact, but it faces a dual challenge in the short term from technical corrections and fundamental events (US inflation data). Market sentiment has become cautious, and trading strategies should prioritize a cautious bullish outlook and be wary of pullbacks. II. News Analysis: Reasons for the Roller Coaster Market: Record-breaking Momentum: Revised US employment data, worse than expected, reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve may slow its tightening pace, which was the core driver of gold's new highs. Profit-taking Pressure: After gold prices continued to rise and hit new all-time highs, a large number of long positions were liquidated at high levels, which was the main reason for the rapid price decline. This is a healthy technical correction, not a trend reversal. The rebound in the US dollar and US Treasuries: The US dollar index rebounded from a seven-week low, and US Treasury yields rose from a five-month low. This increased the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold, exerting short-term pressure on gold prices. Future Focus: US CPI Data: This week's focus: All eyes are on the upcoming release of the US August CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Producer Price Index) data. These data are the most important reference indicators before the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate decision. III. In-depth Technical Analysis Trend Positioning: The daily bullish trend is undeniable. The market closed with a big bullish candlestick last week and continued to be strong at the beginning of this week. All moving average systems are in a bullish arrangement, providing support for prices. Key Level Analysis: Upper Resistance: Short-term Resistance: 3645-3655 (Yesterday's high conversion and psychological barrier) Core Resistance: 3665-3680 (historical high area) Ultimate Target: 3700 (major psychological and technical barrier) Lower Support: First Support: 3630-3628 (top of yesterday's Asia-Europe trading range, turning into a watershed for intraday strength and weakness) Second Support: 3610-3600 (psychological barrier and concentrated trading area) Bull Lifeline: 3580 (last wave starting point & 4-hour top and bottom conversion level). If it falls below this level, it means that this round of strong rise may come to an end, and the market will enter a deeper adjustment or turn bearish. Trading Strategy and Thinking: Long Strategy (Buy Low): Aggressive Buy: When the 3630-3628 support area stabilizes (e.g., a bullish candlestick pattern appears), try a small buy position with a stop-loss below 3620, targeting 3645-3655. Steady long buy: wait for a pullback to the key support area of 3610-3600 or even 3580 before placing long orders in batches, with the stop loss set below 3570 and the target to return to above 3630. Short-selling strategy (selling at high levels): Blindly chasing high prices is not recommended at this time. If the price rebounds to the strong resistance area of 3645-3655, try a small short position with a stop-loss above 3665, targeting 3630-3620. If the gold price unexpectedly falls below the key support of 3628, you can follow the trend and enter a short position, with the target at 3610-3600. IV. Summary and Today's Trading Recommendations Overall Strategy: Before the release of major data, the market is likely to remain volatile at high levels. Operators should reduce their positions and set strict stop-loss orders to avoid the risk of sharp fluctuations caused by data fluctuations. Intraday Short-Term: Short if the market breaks through the 3645-3655 area, with a stop-loss at 3660 and a target of 3635-3625. Long if the market retraces below the 3615-3605 area, with a stop-loss at 3598 and a target of 3625-3635. Trend Following: Hold the 3580 bullish support level, maintain a bullish outlook above this level, and view all pullbacks as buying opportunities. If it effectively breaks below 3580, we will need to turn bearish or wait and see, waiting for a new direction to be chosen. Risk Warning: The above analysis is based on current market information; trading decisions should be considered in conjunction with real-time market conditions. The key focus this week is the US CPI data. It is recommended to liquidate positions or maintain a very light position before the data is released, and then trade accordingly once the data direction becomes clear.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by FX_Gold_Mastermind
Plan 10 Sep, 2025Related Information:!!! 🎯Bets on a more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed), reinforced by last Friday’s weak U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, have kept the overnight U.S. Dollar rebound in check and helped revive demand for non-yielding gold. In addition, prolonged trade-related uncertainties, escalating geopolitical tensions, and political concerns in France and Japan are other factors supporting the safe-haven precious metal. This, in turn, affirms the short-term positive outlook for the commodity and suggests that any corrective pullback could be viewed as a buying opportunity. personal opinion:!!! 🎯Gold prices are moving sideways within the 3,660–3,630 range. Important price zone to consider : !!! resistance zone point: 3660, 3630 zone
OANDA:XAUUSD
by JJainy
1
gold setup 4h analysis Here’s the simplified view for XAU/USD (Gold) 4H chart you shared: --- 📈 Best Buy Setup Entry: Above 3,675 – 3,680 (only if price breaks and closes above this resistance). Stop Loss (SL): Below 3,650. Take Profit (TP): TP1 → 3,700 TP2 → 3,720 – 3,730 ➡ Reason: Breakout continuation in the uptrend. --- 📉 Best Sell Setup Entry: If price rejects 3,675 – 3,680 with bearish confirmation candle. Stop Loss (SL): Above 3,695. Take Profit (TP): TP1 → 3,600 – 3,610 TP2 → 3,575 – 3,550 (trendline support). ➡ Reason: Failed breakout → pullback to trendline. --- 🔑 Best option now → Wait for confirmation. If it breaks up, go long (buy). If it rejects, go short (sell).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by The-Trend-Mindset
Gold Hits Record Highs: $3,600 per Ounce and Still Climbing!On September 5, 2025, gold reached new record highs — $3,599.77 per ounce — thanks to unexpectedly weak U.S. labor market data. This data reinforced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut, which traditionally supports gold prices by reducing the yield of alternative assets. 5 Reasons Why Gold Is the Main Asset of 2025: Expectation and implementation of Fed rate cuts: Weak U.S. employment data has strengthened expectations of a monetary policy easing, favorable for gold as it lowers alternative asset yields. U.S. dollar weakening: As the dollar depreciates, gold priced in USD becomes more affordable for holders of other currencies, boosting demand and prices. Rising geopolitical and economic instability : Growing global uncertainty drives investors into safe-haven assets, with gold remaining the traditional hedge against risks. Central banks’ active gold purchases : Central banks are diversifying reserves, reducing dollar holdings, and allocating more into gold — creating a steady base demand. Increased demand from ETFs and institutional investors : Rising inflows into gold ETFs indicate growing investor confidence in gold, further strengthening price dynamics. The main drivers of gold’s growth remain Fed rate cut expectations, dollar weakness, and active central bank gold purchases. The breakout above $3,600 per ounce has cemented gold’s status as the key safe-haven asset of 2025 . According to FreshForex , the current trend creates favorable conditions for opening long positions in XAUUSD while maintaining strict risk management.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
BUY strategy analysis – Fix Range PoC Zone & TrendlineBUY strategy analysis – Fix Range PoC Zone & Trendline The reason I decided to BUY at this area is: -It’s the Fix Range PoC Zone – the price level with the highest traded volume, showing strong market interest. -This zone also intersects with the rising trendline, reinforcing support from both volume profile and trend structure. 👉 When Volume Profile + Trendline converge, it creates a high-value zone to BUY with the trend. 💡 This isn’t random – it’s a confluence point, where the probability of success is at its highest.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TraderX_68
CURRENT CONTEXT🔭 CURRENT CONTEXT - Main trend: Strong uptrend, maintaining Higher High – Higher Low structure on H1 & M15. - Current price: 3650, has broken above VAH and the previous high at 3580, now showing signs of consolidation at the top area. VOLUME PROFILE: Key zones to watch: 🔺 New short-term resistance: 3652–3660 🟧 Nearest POC support: 3550–3535 🟩 Medium-term Demand Zone H4: 3480–3485 🎯 4 GOLD TRADING SCENARIOS (H1 - M15) 🟩 Scenario 1 – BUY pullback at POC support 3550–3535 🔹 Conditions: Price retests POC 3550–3535 Bullish Pin Bar / Engulfing candle forms on M15 Volume shows bullish support (rising volume at the bottom) 🔸 Reason: This is the nearest volume-balanced POC Previously a breakout zone → may now act as strong support ✅ Entry: BUY around 3540–3550 TP: 3595 / 3620 SL: 3528 R:R ratio: around 1:2 or higher 🟥 Scenario 2 – SELL reaction at 3660–3665 🔹 Conditions: Price retests 3660–3665 Reversal candle pattern on M15 (Bearish Engulfing / Pin Bar) Weak breakout volume, strong wick rejection 🔸 Reason: This is the new short-term top, likely to see profit-taking pressure Overbought in the short term after steep rally ✅ Entry: SELL around 3660 TP: 3600–3585 SL: 3675 R:R ratio: 1:2 🟧 Scenario 3 – BUY breakout if price clears 3665 strongly 🔹 Conditions: H1 or M15 closes above 3665 with increasing volume Breakout + Retest pattern appears 🔸 Reason: Breaking above distribution zone → continue pushing up to form new HH Main uptrend continuation ✅ Entry: BUY after close above 3665, retest 3660 TP: 3690 / 3705 SL: 3652 R:R ratio: 1:1.5 or higher 🟦 Scenario 4 – Deep SELL if POC 3535 and 3515 break 🔹 Conditions: Price breaks below 3535 and 3515 (LVN) with strong volume Retest of 3535 fails to reclaim 🔸 Reason: Losing balance zone + LVN → could trigger a medium-term correction Next target is Demand Zone 3480–3485 ✅ Entry: SELL around 3530 (if retest fails) TP: 3485 SL: 3545 R:R ratio: 1:2 🧷 RISK MANAGEMENT - Trading around 3650+ requires tight SL, avoid FOMO - Only trade with clear setups (Pin Bar / Engulfing / Breakout confirmation) - Prioritize BUY if price stays above 3550–3535 - SELL only if weak volume confirmed or clear reversal patterns
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TraderX_68
Gold Outlook: Macro, Bonds, and Geopolitics Driving the Rally 1. Labor Market Weakness → Fed Pivot Risk The latest NFP showed just 22K jobs vs. 75K expected, with unemployment climbing to 4.3%. Revisions were deeply negative (-258K), confirming labor market deterioration. Historically, recessions often follow once unemployment rises 0.5–1% from cycle lows — we’re already in that zone. This means the Fed is boxed in: growth is slowing but inflation is still sticky. Markets are pricing in a September Fed rate cut, weakening USD and boosting safe-haven demand for Gold. 2. Bonds & Yield Curve Dynamics US Treasury Yields have started to retreat as bond traders price in Fed cuts. The 2-year yield, which tracks Fed expectations, is easing from highs, signaling policy loosening ahead. A steeper yield curve could emerge if short-term yields fall faster than long-term, historically bullish for Gold as opportunity cost declines. Real yields (inflation-adjusted) matter most for Gold. With core inflation at 3.1% and slowing growth, if nominal yields fall but inflation stays sticky, real yields compress lower → Gold rallies. 3. Inflation & Stagflation Risk Inflation is at 3.1%, above the Fed’s 2% target, while growth is slowing. This is classic stagflation risk: weak labor + sticky inflation = policy paralysis. For Gold, stagflation is one of the strongest bullish regimes: fiat currencies lose real value, while safe-havens gain demand. 4. Geopolitical Tailwinds Tariff pressures and trade disputes are pushing input costs higher. Tariffs are inflationary and growth-negative — another stagflation driver. Rising geopolitical tensions (trade wars, supply chain disruptions, regional conflicts) add a risk premium. In times of geopolitical uncertainty, central banks (China, India, Middle East) often increase Gold reserves as a hedge against USD exposure. BRICS talk of de-dollarization is structurally supportive: even a small reserve shift from USD to Gold creates steady demand. 5. Forward Outlook Near-term (1–3 months): Fed cut in September almost certain. USD likely to weaken further, Gold stays bid. Volatility spikes around CPI (Sept 11) and FOMC (Sept 17). Medium-term (3–6 months): If inflation doesn’t fall below 3%, Fed may slow rate cuts, but Gold could still benefit from safe-haven + central bank buying. Key Catalysts to Monitor: September CPI, Fed meetings, earnings season (margin compression risk), geopolitical escalations, tariff policies.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by The_Trading_Path
XAU/USD 4HTechnical Analysis Rising Channel with strong bullish The price action shows: A parabolic uptrend inside a rising channel (or pitchfork structure). Recent breakout attempt toward the upper band. Fibonacci retracements drawn for pullback projections. This looks like a rising channel / ascending channel with parabolic acceleration. --- 🔹 Targets From your chart: Immediate target shown is around 3700 USD (upper channel resistance). If bullish momentum continues, extension targets are 3750 – 3800 USD. --- 🔹 Stop Loss A good protective stop is below the mid-channel line, around 3400 – 3450 USD. A tighter stop could be just under the last breakout zone: 3550 – 3580 USD (aggressive). --- 🔹 Support Levels 1. 3550 – 3580 USD → short-term support. 2. 3450 – 3480 USD → mid support (channel median + Fib zone). 3. 3300 – 3350 USD → strong support (Fib + previous base). --- 🔹 Resistance Levels 1. 3700 – 3720 USD (current key resistance). 2. 3800 USD (upper channel / Fib extension). 3. 4000 USD psychological level (long-term projection). --- ✅ Suggested Trading Plan (swing perspective): Entry: On dips near 3550–3600 USD or breakout above 3700 USD. Target: 3720 → 3800 USD. Stop Loss: Below 3450 USD (swing safe) or 3580 USD (tight).
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by The-Trend-Mindset
Scalping Sell Setup – Trendline Break & Pullback Confirmation📉 Scalping Sell Setup – Trendline Break & Pullback Confirmation Posted earlier – trade progressing as planned. As shared in the previous chart, a Sell scalp position was executed based on the trendline break followed by a pullback retest. Three Take-Profit levels were marked and the price is moving in line with the forecast. ✅ 🟢 TP1 Hit 🟢 TP2 Reached 🔵 TP3 in progress 📌 The setup remains valid, and as long as structure holds below the retested trendline, the bearish bias continues. We will monitor price action near TP3 zone for final exit or trailing stop update. > Analysis worked perfectly so far – let’s see if TP3 gets cleared soon. 🔍💥
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by mmozafari1357
1