XAUUSD 4D Market Outlook
- Gold extended its record-breaking rally on Thursday, hitting an all-time high of $4,319 per ounce, as investors rushed to safety amid escalating U.S.–China tensions, a prolonged U.S. government shutdown, and growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- Gold did 60% year-to-date gain; its strongest annual performance in decades. The surge is being driven by robust central bank purchases, weakening Treasury yields, and broad-based risk aversion.
- Renewed trade friction between the U.S. and China intensified after Washington condemned Beijing’s expanded rare earth export controls, sparking fears of global supply disruptions. At the same time, the U.S. government shutdown, now in its third week, continues to weigh on investor sentiment.
- The Treasury estimates the shutdown is costing $15 billion per week, fueling anxiety over economic stability and fiscal credibility conditions that historically favor gold.
Fed Rate Cut Bets Deepen as Yields Slide
- Markets are now pricing in a 98% probability of a 25 basis-point rate cut in October, with a second move expected in December. The Federal Reserve faces additional uncertainty due to a data blackout caused by the shutdown, while the latest Philadelphia Fed survey plunged 36 points to -12.8, reinforcing the dovish outlook.
Technical Outlook:
- Analysts warn that while short-term corrections are possible, the bullish structure remains intact. Unless prices close decisively below recent swing lows, the path of least resistance remains higher.
