Gold Spot | H4 Countertrend Recovery Toward Daily Breakdown Zone
The Market Flow | Oct 23, 2025
Technical Overview
H4:
• Pivot zone active at 4073–4097 ; structure turned upward.
• Price is correcting within the broader daily downtrend phase.
• As long as this pivot zone holds, short-term bias remains constructive toward upper resistance.
• Next resistance lies at 4220–4246 (H4 supply + daily breakdown area).
• Expansion level aligns at 4360 , marking the limit of the countertrend reach.
Daily:
• The daily structure remains in correction following the prior impulsive decline.
• Current advance reflects a correction within that corrective phase — effectively, a secondary retracement.
• Breakdown pivot sits at 4040 ; reclaim above that would signal early reaccumulation.
Trade Structure & Levels
• Bias: Long above 4073
• Trigger = 4097
• Invalidation = 4073
• Path → 4220 → 4246
• Phase: Correction of a corrective wave (short-term recovery within broader downtrend)
Risk & Event Context
• No imminent macro catalyst; gold volatility subdued after recent impulse.
• Next reaction likely around the 4240–4260 region — alignment of structural resistance.
Conclusion
H4 bias remains long while holding above the 4073–4097 pivot zone. The market is retracing within a corrective context, targeting the daily breakdown and upper H4 resistance. A close below the active pivot would invalidate this recovery structure.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation. Market conditions and price behavior may change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Trade ideas
[XAUUSD] Market OutlookIf the price were to CHoCH after liquidity capture and experience a structural realignment that creates a BoS, then we could have a long continuation.
Otherwise, if the price were to only take that liquidity, deposit more, and fail to reach a new structural high, then we could have a short structural continuation.
Be patient.
ElDoradoFx PREMIUM – GOLD ANALYSIS (23/10/2025, US SESSION)Gold is consolidating near 4,110–4,115 after attempting a bullish recovery from yesterday’s dip. Current PA is compressing within a minor intraday wedge under key dynamic resistance (H1 200EMA). The US session is likely to determine whether gold continues its bullish correction toward 4,150–4,162 or loses momentum and re-tests liquidity zones below 4,098–4,083.
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📈 Market Overview
• Recent bullish recovery but still trading below major H1 protections.
• Buyers attempting to hold above 4,110, forming higher lows since early London.
• Sellers are defending resistance around 4,126–4,132, aligned with descending structure.
• Momentum mildly bullish but weakening — breakout decision likely in US volatility.
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🧠 Technical Breakdown
📅 Daily (D1)
• Still in macro bullish uptrend, recent rejection candle confirmed lower wick buying.
• Current candle showing attempt to recover after heavy retracement.
• RSI holding around 59 — neutral but leaning recovery.
• Failure to climb above 4,150 today risks another bearish D1 candle.
⏳ 1H (H1)
• CHoCH confirmed from previous bearish swing, but price is still under key EMAs.
• Trading just below H1 200EMA (approx. 4,150–4,153) — a critical supply zone.
• Multiple rejections around 4,125–4,132, signaling short-term resistance.
• RSI ~53, balanced but slightly bullish.
• MACD histogram showing steady green momentum but starting to flatten.
📍Conclusion: US session needs a breakout above 4,132 or a strong retest to confirm direction.
🕒 30M
• Price consolidating in a tightening wedge.
• 200EMA overhead at 4,150 acting as session ceiling.
• MACD still green but declining — buyers losing steam.
• A break below wedge support (~4,104–4,106) may trigger corrective wave.
📉 15M–5M
• M15: Sideways structure; BOS previously bullish but now stalling.
• M5: Shows liquidity sweeps & quick rejections near 4,126 zone.
• Buyers holding structure above 4,110, but momentum slowing.
📍Scalp buyers may wait for retracement or bullish engulfing confirmation.
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📐 Fibonacci Golden Zone (Last Impulse: 4,088 → 4,137)
🔸 38.2% → 4,119
🔸 50% → 4,113
🔸 61.8% → 4,106
✅ Golden Buy Zone: 4,119–4,106
⚠ If 4,106 breaks decisively, deeper pullback to 4,098–4,083 liquidity pocket is likely.
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🎯 High-Probability Trade Scenarios
✅ Bullish Continuation (Preferred if zone holds)
📍Buy Zone: 4,119–4,106 (Fib confluence + bullish PA confirmation)
🎯 TP1 4,126 | TP2 4,132 (local high) | TP3 4,148 | TP4 4,159 (H1 200EMA)
🛑 SL below 4,102
⚡ Aggressive Breakout Buy
📍Trigger: Break & close M15 above 4,132
🎯 TP1 4,148 | TP2 4,153 | TP3 4,162 | TP4 4,168
🛑 SL below 4,125
🔻 Bearish Reversal from Supply (Only if clear rejection at 4,132–4,148)
📍Entry: Bearish engulfing/confirmation at 4,132–4,148
🎯 TP1 4,119 | TP2 4,113 | TP3 4,106 | TP4 4,098–4,083
🛑 SL above 4,153
📉 Breakdown Sell (Stronger correction case)
📍Trigger: Clean break below 4,106
🎯 TP1 4,098 | TP2 4,087 | TP3 4,071–4,058
🛑 SL above 4,113
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📅 Fundamental Watch – US Session
• US jobless claims & mid-tier USD data may fuel volatility.
• DXY strength could cap gold upside near 4,148.
• If US yields fall, gold may break 4,132 strongly.
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📍 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 4,126–4,132 / 4,148–4,153 / 4,162
Support: 4,119 / 4,113 / 4,106 / 4,098 / 4,083
Trendlines:
🔻 Descending resistance capping at 4,132
🔺 Ascending intraday support at 4,110
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🧾 Analyst Summary
Gold is coiling for a directional move during US session. Buyers still maintain short-term structure as long as price holds above 4,106–4,110. A bullish breakout above 4,132 may fuel an impulsive move into H1 supply at 4,148–4,159. However, repeated rejections could cause a deeper correction to 4,098–4,083 before any further bullish attempt.
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📌 Final Bias Summary
✅ Bias: Mildly bullish above 4,106
⚠️ Rejection at 4,132 = short-term sell wave
📍 Buy dips > 4,106 | Strong buy only above 4,132
📍 Sell only on confirmed rejection or breakdown below 4,106
— ElDoradoFx PREMIUM 2.0 Team 🚀
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Gold facing pressure but still open for further surgeFollowing a recent rally, the gold price met significant profit-taking pressure. Prices reached a record high of 4381, signaling an easing of US-China trade tensions.
China confirmed trade talks with the US will occur tomorrow in Malaysia alongside the ASEAN summit. However, both sides are escalating tensions pre-talks to gain bargaining power, potentially complicating a final agreement.
Meanwhile, the prolonged US government shutdown, combined with a weakened Labor Market and a lack of data, has obscured the Labor Market's current situation. This uncertainty fueled market concern and drove investors toward safe-haven assets.
Concurrently, expectations place the US CPI at 3.1% YoY, accelerating from 2.9%. This increase raises stagflation concerns in the US economy, further supporting the gold price.
Technically, XAUUSD hovers slightly above the EMA78. Both EMAs are consolidating, signaling continued flattening momentum.
However, the long-term trend remains to the upside, suggesting investors may buy the dips amid the remaining uncertainty.
Gold (XAUUSD): possible plan to think to buy goldGold (XAUUSD): possible plan to think to buy gold.
At this moment my strategy tells me to wait. I wont sell until in 1H my structure turns bearish. but 15m timeframe is bearish so I can't buy until LTF turns bullish. I have shown the level that should be broken before buying.
Cheers
Gold closes in on 4KThe volatility in gold continues. The metal fell a further 2.6% to close in on $4,000, extending drop from Monday's all-time high to over 8% amid profit-taking and dollar strength. It had staged a decent bounce yesterday but that turned out to be a dead-cat. Anyway the area between around 4000 to 4022 is where the trend line, round 4K handle and 21 day exponential all converge. Needs to hold to keep bulls interested in dip buying. Below 3944, the most recent low prior to the breakout above 4K, things will turn bearish.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Gold nowGold broke the MA liquidity line so it accept MA 2-5-6 only and now he in short term sell Direction level that means possible to short and long in the supply and demand zone but no long before it reverse the momentum at moving average and CCI or rest in the daily demand zone around 4000 - 4040
#MA_Strategy
$4,381 WAS THE FAKE TOP? Gold -5.5%: MSS Confirms SELL!XAU/USD In-Depth Analysis: Historic Shock and Structure-Based Selling Opportunity!
1. Fundamental Shock Analysis
Gold's massive 5.5% plunge from its record high of $4,381 was a large-scale profit-taking action following a blistering 60% year-to-date rally. This move was fueled by:
USD Strength: The strengthening US Dollar reduced Gold's appeal.
Market Sentiment: A shift into Risk-On mode, diminishing safe-haven demand.
The Essence: This was a huge Liquidity Sweep, designed to wash out weaker hands before Gold decides its next major trend.
2. Technical Analysis (MSS & Execution)
The price structure has delivered a decisive message: The trend has changed!
MSS Confirmed (Market Structure Shift): The break of the bullish structure occurred at $4,254.549. This level is now a highly critical Supply Zone, acting as the "boundary" for the bears.
Demand Reaction: Gold is currently attempting to hold the Order Block (OB) at $4,077.
Preferred Strategy: SELL based on the confirmed MSS.
Optimal SELL Zone: Wait for a retracement back to the Supply Zone $4,254.549 (Ideal limit entry).
Target (TP): Successive targets are $4,008 (The psychological $4k mark) and the strong support area at $3,944 - $3,904.
Stop Loss (SL): Place above the high at $4,260 (Protecting the MSS point).
Conclusion: Don't be fooled by the bounce. $4,254.549 is the golden entry point for a short trade following the new market structure.
#GOLD #XAUUSD #MSS #Liquidity #SELLSignal #SmartMoneyConcept
Gold is currently in a correction phase within the $4060-4180 Gold is currently in a correction phase within the $4060-4180 range.
Technical Analysis:
On October 21, gold experienced a "black swan"-style decline, with spot prices plummeting 6.3% at one point, marking the largest single-day drop since April 2013.
The market is currently in a correction phase following significant volatility.
Key Technical Levels:
Upper Resistance: $4160-4180, currently a key turning point.
Gold is currently struggling in this range, serving as both short-term resistance and an initial rebound target.
Lower Support: $4060-4100, a recent core support level.
A break below this level could trigger further selling.
Key Points: $3950-3900 is the long-term lifeline, considered by many institutions to be the ultimate test of the bull market's sustainability.
1: Bearish Trend Dominance: A single, sharply bearish candlestick pattern has severely damaged the short-term technical pattern, requiring time for the market to process and consolidate.
2: Oversold rebound still needed: Following the plunge, indicators like the RSI have quickly retreated from overbought territory, even entering oversold territory, creating the conditions for a technical rebound.
3: Volatility surges: Market volatility is extremely high, with daily fluctuations exceeding hundreds of dollars becoming the norm. This means both risks and opportunities are magnified.
Today's Strategy:
The main strategy for day traders: Buy low and sell high at key levels, with strict stop-loss orders.
• Aggressive Strategy: If gold prices encounter resistance and fall back to the current level around $4,160, consider initiating a small short position with a target of $4,100-4,090.
Conversely, if gold prices hold strongly above $4,160, consider initiating a small long position with a target of $4,230.
• Conservative Strategy: Wait for gold prices to fall back to the $4,100-4,090 support level and show signs of stabilization (such as a bullish rebound on the 5-minute or 15-minute chart). Afterward, consider a small long position, with the first target at $4,160 and the second at $4,230.
Stop-loss orders must be strictly enforced. For long positions, a stop-loss order is recommended below $4,080; for short positions, a stop-loss order is recommended above $4,170.
Due to high volatility, maintaining a light position is crucial.
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Overall, after this historic decline, gold's short-term technical pattern has been broken, and the market needs time to process and consolidate.
For short-term traders, the key is to remain patient, operate within key support and resistance levels, and maintain strict stop-loss orders.
20251022-XAUUSD IdeaA strong bearish impulse has appeared on the major timeframe, but on the 4H structure, it only reflects bearish sentiment without breaking the previous low. The overall market direction remains bullish, with the price still closing above 4058.
Next, observe how the corrective sentiment on the major timeframe develops.
Gold Buy Long PostionA Gold (XAU/USD) Buy Long Position involves purchasing the XAU/USD pair with the expectation that the price of Gold (XAU) will rise relative to the US Dollar (USD) over time.1 This is a common strategy for position traders and swing traders.Gold Buy Long Position (XAU/USD) Short NoteCurrent XAU/USD Price ContextApproximate XAU/USD Price: The Gold price is highly dynamic, but recent market data shows it trading around the $4,150 - $4,250 per ounce range (as of the recent search results from October 2025). This price point is near historical highs, indicating a strong long-term bullish trend that is currently undergoing some short-term correction/consolidation.Strategy Summary for Long EntryFundamental Driver (Why Buy): Gold is typically bought as a safe-haven asset during times of economic or geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., wars, high inflation, recession fears).2 A sustained weakening of the US Dollar (USD) or a dovish outlook from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) (e.g., expected interest rate cuts) is also a strong bullish signal for XAU/USD.Technical Trigger (When to Buy):Support/Retracement: Look for the price to pull back to a key historical Support level or a major Fibonacci Retracement level (like 3$50\%$ or 4$61.8\%$) within an existing uptrend.5Confirmation: Enter the trade when a strong bullish candle (e.g., a Pin Bar or Bullish Engulfing) forms at that key support level, confirming buyer defense.Trend Following: Wait for a breakout above a recent minor resistance level (or consolidation range) to confirm the continuation of the main uptrend.6Risk Management:Stop-Loss (SL): Place the Stop-Loss below the confirmation support level or the most recent swing low to protect against an invalidation of the bullish structure.7Take-Profit (TP): Target the most recent swing high or use Fibonacci Extension levels to project higher targets.
Gold Price Outlook – Trade Setup (XAU/USD)📊 Technical Structure
Gold tumbled below $4,100, finding temporary support around $4,085–$4,093.
The chart shows a descending trendline, keeping short-term momentum bearish.
Immediate resistance lies at $4,142–$4,151, while the support zone is at $4,085–$4,093.
A break above the trendline could trigger a rebound toward resistance, but failure may open the door to deeper losses.
📌 Trade Setup
Entry: $4,093
Stop Loss: $4,080 (below support zone)
Take Profit: $4,150 (resistance retest)
Risk-to-Reward (R:R): ≈ 1 : 4.45
🌍 Macro Background
Gold is pressured by easing US-China trade tensions as both sides prepare for potential tariff negotiations ahead of November 1. This weakens safe-haven flows. At the same time, the steep profit-taking after a nine-week rally adds to selling pressure.
However, risks from the prolonged US government shutdown, concerns over global debt sustainability, and expectations of further Fed rate cuts (October and December) continue to support the medium-term bullish case for gold.
Markets now await US CPI data on Friday (YoY expected at 3.1%), which will be a crucial trigger for USD and gold direction.
🔑 Key Technical Levels
Resistance: $4,142 / $4,151
Support: $4,093 / $4,085
Upside Target (breakout): $4,150–$4,160
Downside Target (failure): $4,070 / $4,050
📋 Trade Summary
Gold faces strong downside momentum but holds above the $4,085 support zone. Short-term strategy favours a rebound trade on a breakout above the descending trendline, targeting $4,150. However, if support fails, the decline could accelerate toward $4,070–$4,050.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading involves significant risk, and proper risk management is essential.
Gold Wave Analysis – 21 October 2025
- Gold reversed from key resistance level 4370.00
- Likely to fall to support level 4000.00
Gold falling strongly after the price made 3rd failed attempt to break above the key resistance level 4370.00 standing well above the upper daily Bollinger Band.
The downward reversal from the resistance level 4370.00 will form the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing – strong sell signal for Gold.
Given the abnormally long period of overbought daily Stochastic, Gold can be expected to fall to the next round support level 4000.00.
$GOLD Bearish Engulfing on Daily - Rotation to $BTC Incoming!MASSIVE BEARISH ENGULFING FORMING ON THE TVC:GOLD DAILY CHART.
Down ~7% just on the day alone.
~$2 TRILLION has been wiped out on its market cap,
the equivalent of Bitcoin’s entire MC.
We can see the rotation into CRYPTOCAP:BTC in real-time here.
If GOLD Closes below the DANGER ZONE,
it’s game-over for everyone’s favorite pet rock 🪙
Accurately grasp every trading opportunity,do you dare to followGold prices fell sharply in the evening due to the news, with a daily drop of nearly $300. Judging from the daily chart, the large real negative line almost swallowed up all the gains last week, and the bears have absolute control over the market.
Since this morning, Allen has been reminding everyone to pay attention to the M-shaped double-top structure and be alert to the possible sharp market correction. Even if you fail to keep up with our trading rhythm, as long as you refer to my ideas and read them carefully, you can at least effectively avoid being washed out by the market.
As gold continues to fall, various voices have appeared in the market. Bros must keep their eyes open when referring to them. After all, not everyone is as brave as Allen in facing mistakes and losses.
As I said, the bears are currently dominating the market. Although the decline has stagnated slightly in the short term, the downward trend has not completely stopped. It will be difficult for the bulls to recover all their lost ground tonight. The current gold price is hovering around 4110. If it continues to fall, you can pay attention to the short-term support of 4060-4050 below. Try to go long with a light position, set a stop loss, and look for support at the 4000 integer mark if it breaks.
OANDA:XAUUSD
Plan XAU day: Oct 21, 2025Related Information:!!!
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that comprehensive tariffs on China would not be sustainable. Trump added on Sunday that both nations would reach a great deal, although he warned that if no agreement is made, China could face tariffs of up to 155%. This keeps attention focused on the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks next week.
personal opinion:!!!
After several days of setting record highs, gold prices have entered a sharp correction phase, with XAU dropping to around $4,000.
Important price zone to consider : !!!
Resistance zone point: 4100 zone
XAU / USD 30 Minute ChartHello traders. Gold certainly moved down during the overnight sessions. Let's see if the NY open today corrects some of that move, or do we continue down?? I have marked my various areas to watch for potential scalp buy / sell trades. I am not rushing anything, I am just trying to ride with the market. Trade the trend and be well. Shout out to Big G. Happy Tuesday!!






















