GOLD BEARS WILL DOMINATE THE MARKET|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,538.09
Target Level: 3,432.86
Stop Loss: 3,608.24
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 8h
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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GOLDMINICFD trade ideas
XAUUSD – Bearish Crab Signals a Potential PullbackXAUUSD – Bearish Crab Signals a Potential Pullback
Today’s macro backdrop is weighing on gold as the USD recovers and bond yields edge higher, reducing expectations of an imminent Fed rate cut. This has cooled safe-haven demand and opened the door for profit-taking after the strong rally.
On the H4 chart, price has completed a Bearish Crab pattern at key extension levels, with reversal signals emerging near the 3,550 peak. This suggests the market may be entering a short-term corrective phase.
Key levels to watch:
Near-term resistance : 3,540–3,555
Target support 1 : 3,475–3,450
Target support 2 : 3,350–3,330
Deeper support : 3,290–3,270
The short-term bias has shifted toward the downside. Any technical pullback is likely to offer opportunities for sellers to rejoin.
Where do you think gold will find its next support in this correction?
Gold and Its Hidden Catalyst: Is a New Bull Cycle on the HorizonBy Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades
Gold (Ticker AT: GOLD) is once again at the center of financial debate. After years of solid gains and an undisputed role as a safe haven, a little-explored factor could trigger an unprecedented bull cycle: the potential revaluation of the United States’ official gold reserves.
The Hidden Catalyst
The United States holds 261.5 million troy ounces in official reserves, valued on the books at only $42.22 per ounce, or roughly $11 billion in total. However, the current gold price hovers around $3,500 per ounce, revealing a vast gap between accounting value and market reality. Some lawmakers, including Senator Cynthia Lummis, have proposed updating these reserves to market prices. The impact would be colossal: such an adjustment would represent about 3% of U.S. GDP, potentially used to reduce the deficit, lower public debt, or create a strategic fund tied to new reserves in bitcoin.
Global Implications
A revaluation of this magnitude would not only reinforce gold’s monetary role but also free resources to alleviate deficit pressures and debt interest obligations. At the same time, it could have an inflationary side effect, acting as an indirect monetary injection that weakens the dollar against gold and other currencies. If realized, this move could influence other central banks, creating a chain reaction with greater revaluation of global reserves and increased demand for gold as a strategic asset. Central banks’ interest already supports this thesis: in 2024, net purchases exceeded 1,000 tonnes of gold for the third consecutive year, and in 2025 buying momentum remains high. This trend validates gold’s role as a strategic monetary asset and increases pressure to adjust its official valuation.
Investor Perspective
A potential official revaluation of U.S. reserves could become one of the largest bullish catalysts in decades, solidifying gold as a hedge against U.S. fiscal risk, the erosion of the dollar as a global reserve currency, and geopolitical tensions. For investors, maintaining strategic exposure to the precious metal appears more relevant than ever. This can be achieved through physical gold, gold-backed ETFs, gold mining stocks, or hybrid instruments such as gold loans with additional yield.
The Gold Zapatero Sold at a Loss
During José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero’s government, the Bank of Spain carried out one of the largest reductions in gold reserves in recent history. Between 2005 and 2007, it sold around 242 tonnes, nearly half of the national stock, which fell from 523 tonnes to just 282 tonnes. In 2007 alone, more than 130 tonnes were sold under European central bank agreements aimed at diversifying assets and investing in sovereign debt. Since then, Spain’s gold position has remained virtually unchanged at around 281 tonnes, with no significant purchases, unlike other central banks that have increased their reserves in recent years.
At today’s price of $3,500 per ounce, Spain’s current gold reserves (281 t) would be worth approximately $31.6 billion. In contrast, the 242 tonnes sold under Zapatero fetched only ~$3.5 billion, meaning those reserves would now be worth ~$27.2 billion, more than seven times the sale price at the time.
Technical Analysis of Gold (Ticker AT: GOLD)
Gold cash is currently trading slightly above $3,500 per ounce, consolidating after the strong bullish surge in August. The technical structure shows a market still dominated by buyers, although signs of overextension and sideways movement are emerging. The price has lost the 50-day moving average support and currently rests weakly above the 100-day average.
Key Levels
Immediate Resistance: $3,578.37 – a psychological zone coinciding with recent highs and selling pressure.
Next Resistance: $3,600 – round number and likely target if bullish momentum continues.
Immediate Support: $3,510 – a short-term reference; a break could trigger a deeper correction.
Relevant Support: $3,499.57 – confluence zone from the last impulse, acting as strong support for the recent bullish move.
Technical Indicators
RSI: ~39.41%, in oversold territory, suggesting potential price recovery.
MACD: bearish signal, with a negative histogram reflecting fatigue in the bullish impulse.
Moving Averages: price comfortably above the 50-day average, maintaining the underlying bullish trend.
Point of Control (POC): $4,777.97 in the previous accumulation zone.
Probable Scenarios
The technical bias remains bullish as long as gold holds relevant support and stays above the POC. However, oversold conditions increase the likelihood of temporary sideways consolidation to prepare for new highs. A drop below $3,457 would test the 200-day moving average and challenge the current trend, though institutional buyers may use the $3,510 support area to reposition. The recent surge has pushed prices above a long-term range recently broken with some force, suggesting a potential revisit of supporting trend lines to retest and surpass current highs.
Planned Fiat Devaluation and Return to the Gold Standard?
Gold sits at an inflection point where structural and technical forces converge. On one hand, the hypothesis of an official revaluation of U.S. reserves introduces a potentially transformative factor that could start a broad new bull cycle. The market shows a clear underlying positive trend with necessary consolidation phases. For institutions, gold is gaining appeal as a hedge against U.S. fiscal risk, dollar pressure, and uncertainty. In the short term, the market is defending supports and seeking to recover above the 50-day moving average. Long-term institutional accumulation and global monetary policy reinforce the thesis that gold will continue playing a central role in the international financial architecture—not just as a safe haven, but as a backbone of the future monetary system. Europe, and particularly Spain, will need to take measures to position its reserves strategically in line with this trend.
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Gold 04/09 – Smart Money Setup: Sell Scalp, Prep for Buy Zones🟢 Market Context
Gold is currently showing a short-term bearish setup after a ChoCH (Change of Character) near 3,536.556. The market is rejecting supply and forming liquidity sweeps around the 3,531–3,533 zone. Expecting price to pull lower toward demand areas before the next bullish leg.
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📍 Key Levels & Trade Plan
🔴 Intraday Sell (Scalp Opportunity)
• Entry: 3,531 – 3,533
• Stop Loss: 3,535
• Target: 3,485
🟢 Swing Buy Zones
1. Buy Zone 1: 3,475 – 3,477
o Stop Loss: 3,470
o Target: 3,508 – 3,526
2. Buy Zone 2 (Deeper Discount): 3,441 – 3,443
o Stop Loss: 3,435
o Target: 3,500+
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⚖️ SMC Bias
• Short-term: Bearish scalp from supply zone.
• Mid-term: Looking for liquidity grab and bullish reversal at demand zones.
• Long-term: Maintaining bullish order flow as long as deeper demand (3,441) holds.
Gold Trade Plan 04/09/2025Dear Traders,
After the strong rally in gold, there was a $60 correction, which shows us that the third bullish wave has been completed and the price has entered a corrective phase. The 0.23 Fibonacci and 0.38 Fibonacci levels are potential reversal zones to the upside. Considering the ascending trendline shown in the chart, the 0.38 Fibonacci level intersects with the trendline. It seems that the price may drop to this zone, and the 0.38 level would be a very suitable area for a buy position with a target of over 2000 pips.
Regards,
Alireza!
GOLD Breakout Alert | Is $3,500 Next for XAUUSD?old has officially broken out of a key consolidation zone around 3375 – 3400, retesting the structure with strength. The bullish channel remains intact, showing higher highs and higher lows since the start of the year.
📈 Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone: 3375 – 3400 (former resistance, now support)
Upside Potential: 3500+ if momentum continues
Invalidation: A daily close back below 3375
💡 Trading Idea:
As long as price holds above the red demand zone, bulls are in control. A healthy retest could set the stage for the next impulsive rally toward the channel top.
⚠️ Risk Note: Always manage risk carefully — markets can shift quickly.
👉 What’s your outlook on GOLD? Do you see this breakout running toward 3500+, or will bears drag it back inside the range? Share your thoughts below!
❤️ Don’t forget to like this post and drop your analysis in the comments — let’s learn together!
Trendline Break — SHORT SetupOn the 15-minute chart, Gold has been in a steady uptrend, supported by a rising trendline. Price recently tested the 3579 level but has since shown signs of rejection and is now breaking below the trendline support.
This breakdown suggests that bullish momentum may be fading, opening the possibility for a short-term pullback. The immediate downside target is around 3545–3550, which aligns with both the 200 EMA and a prior support zone.
Trade Setup:
• Entry: Below trendline break (~3569)
• Stop Loss: Above recent high (~3579.7)
• Target: 3545–3550 zone
If the price reclaims and holds above the recent high, this bearish idea will be invalidated. Until then, the bias favors a corrective move lower.
GOLD: Long Trading Opportunity
GOLD
- Classic bullish formation
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Long GOLD
Entry - 3483.1
Sl - 3479.3
Tp - 3491.7
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Gold weekly and monthly levels with both buy and sell entries Gold analasis weekly and monthly levels.
Buy and sell entries clearly marked wait for conformation before entering.
Some points to consider
📈 Gold prices have hit record levels, closing at 3450, with a positive outlook for September.
📊 Key levels to watch are 3200, 3250, and 3300, as trading below these could signal a reversal.
🔍 Technical analysis suggests a potential breakout, but the market is currently overbought.
🚀 A breakout above 3500 could drive gold prices towards 3600.
⏳ September is a critical month for determining gold price trends.
📉 Maintaining price levels at 3466 and 3475 is essential for a bullish sentiment; otherwise, a reversal is likely.
As always use poper risk mamnagement if taking these trades as swing trades please allow the proper amount of stop loss.
Gold by nature will retrace in order to pick up bids before moving in the true direction please keep this in mind.
As always trade safe
Gold Extends Rally on Rising Rate-Cut Expectations📊 Market Developments:
Gold hit an all-time high around $3 508/oz before easing to about $3 494/oz, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and growing expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. Markets are pricing in roughly a 90% probability of a rate cut this month.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Resistance: $3 500 – $3 525 – $3 560
• Support: $3 425 – $3 400
• EMA: Price remains above EMA 09 → bullish trend
• Candlestick / Momentum: Indicators (RSI, MACD, CCI) all show strong buy momentum.
📌 Outlook:
Gold is in a clear short-term uptrend. A breakout above $3 500 may lead to $3 525 – $3 560. On the downside, strong support sits around $3 425 – $3 400, ideal for potential pullback entries.
💡 Trading Strategy:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD
Entry: $3 522 – $3 525
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
🛑 SL: $3 528
🔺 BUY XAU/USD
Entry: $3 425 – $3 428
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
🛑 SL: $3 422
Gold Price Update – Is the Bull Run Losing Steam?Gold (XAUUSD) traded with relatively slow momentum for most of the session today, steadily climbing higher throughout the day. However, during the final hour of trading, we observed a sharp pullback — a swift drop of approximately 200 pips. This sudden move raises the question: Is the recent bull run coming to an end?
From a technical standpoint, I believe the answer is yes.
Gold has experienced a parabolic rally over the past several sessions, which is typically unsustainable in the short term. Adding weight to this view is the fact that Silver (XAGUSD) has just hit a major resistance area around 41.40 (refer to my separate analysis on Silver for more details). Since Gold and Silver tend to move in tandem due to their correlated nature, the rejection on Silver at a key resistance level may signal a broader reversal across the precious metals sector.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support Zone: 3536
This is the first area of interest on the downside. I anticipate a potential bounce here. A hold above this level could offer a short-term long opportunity, targeting a retest of recent highs.
Resistance / Sell Zone: Previous Highs
Should price spike back up near the recent highs, I will be closely watching for signs of exhaustion to potentially enter a short position. This could align with a continuation move lower towards the next support around 3480.
Outlook:
In summary, while the larger trend has been bullish, the combination of parabolic price action, correlated resistance in Silver, and the sharp intraday rejection suggests a high probability of a near-term reversal. I remain cautiously bearish and will be trading levels with discipline, especially around 3536 and 3480.
Gold: False Breakout at 3500 – 3400 or 3600 Next?Gold Outlook: Historical Highs Above $3500 – Consolidation or Deeper Correction Ahead?
Gold has once again updated its all-time highs above the $3500 mark, confirming the strong bullish trend that has been dominating the market in recent months. However, immediately after this breakout attempt, we saw a corrective pullback triggered by a short-term strengthening of the U.S. dollar. This raises a key question for traders and investors: is this just a temporary pause before new highs, or the beginning of a deeper correction phase?
Macro & Fundamental Drivers
U.S. Dollar & Fed Expectations:
The probability of a September rate cut is now estimated at 90%, which remains one of the strongest supportive factors for gold. Nevertheless, temporary USD strength is weighing on the metal in the short term. Importantly, markets are increasingly focused on concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, with political pressure (particularly from Trump) casting uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path.
Geopolitical Risks:
Escalating geopolitical tensions are also adding fuel to safe-haven demand. Recent reports highlight intensified strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian territory, raising fears of further escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This factor continues to support defensive assets like gold, even in the face of short-term dollar strength.
Upcoming U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI:
Today’s key macro event is the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI. Consensus expects a modest rise to 49, which would still leave the index in the contraction zone.
If the data meets or exceeds expectations, the USD could receive temporary support, keeping gold under pressure.
If the data misses expectations and shows further weakness, it could accelerate dollar selling and act as a catalyst for gold to retest or break above historical highs.
Technical Picture
Gold’s sharp rejection above $3500 suggests that the market is not yet ready for a sustainable breakout. At the same time, the long-term bullish structure remains intact. The key levels to watch in the short term are:
Resistance: $3485, $3500, $3505
Support: $3467.6, $3441, $3423
A sustained move below $3490–3485 may open the way for a deeper correction into the 3440–3420 support zone. On the other hand, a successful defense of these levels could lead to another retest of $3500–3505, though at this stage the market does not yet show strong momentum for an immediate continuation higher.
Trading Scenarios
Bearish Case (short-term): Failure to hold above $3485 may trigger selling pressure toward 3467–3440, and possibly even 3423 in the near term.
Bullish Case (medium-term): Any dip toward the support zone could attract buyers, especially if fundamentals (weak ISM PMI / dovish Fed expectations / geopolitical tensions) align. A confirmed breakout above $3505 would signal continuation toward new record highs.
🔑 Bottom Line: Gold remains in a bullish long-term uptrend but faces short-term correction risks. Today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI release could be the decisive factor for immediate direction. Watch closely whether bulls can defend the 3485–3490 zone or whether bears push the price lower toward support levels before the next leg higher.
Gold at the Crossroads – Will It Fly or Pull Back?Gold at the Crossroads – Liquidity Above, Support Below
Gold just reached a new high around 3577, extending its bullish run. But tomorrow’s ADP NFP + Unemployment Claims could be the trigger for sharp volatility. When news hits, markets often hunt liquidity before choosing direction.
Above current price, levels like 3585 and 3620 act as liquidity magnets — areas where many traders keep stop losses. Price may reach for them to sweep liquidity before any retracement.
Below price, we have solid demand shelves at 3545, 3500, and even 3460. These zones act like launchpads, where strong buyers may step back in if the market takes a healthy pullback.
🔑 The lesson for tomorrow:
Don’t treat zones as instant trades.
Wait for confirmation: rejection, slowing candles, or a structure break.
Especially around news, patience is key — the market often fakes one direction before revealing the real move.
👉 So the real question is: will gold grab the liquidity above and push into extensions, or dip into discount demand before bouncing?
Drop your thoughts below 👇, don't forget to 🚀🚀🚀 and follow GoldFxMinds for more precision plans 🚀✨
How Far Will the Gold Breakout Run?Gold has finally broken free from its months-long consolidation, and the chart signals a decisive bullish breakout.
Price had been coiling within a contracting triangle pattern since April, capped by resistance around $3,430. Last week’s strong move above that ceiling, followed by accelerating momentum, confirms buyers are back in control.
The 50-day SMA is turning higher, reinforcing near-term bullish sentiment, while the 200-day SMA remains well below current price action, highlighting the strength of the broader uptrend. Momentum indicators are supportive: the MACD has crossed bullishly above its signal line, and the RSI has surged into overbought territory (77+), reflecting strong demand but also hinting at possible short-term consolidation after such a sharp rally.
Going forward, as long as gold holds above the former breakout zone near $3,430, the bias remains bullish. Traders will watch closely to see if momentum carries price toward fresh highs, while any pullback toward support could provide a retest opportunity.
Gold’s technical picture has shifted decisively—this breakout marks a potential continuation of the broader uptrend.
-MW
Gold Break of All Time Highs May Lead to A RetracementNow that ATHs have been claimed, it might be time for a pullback.
Wait for a retest of that broken trendline support or a break of that support structure highlighted on the H1 time frame and begin to target demand zones as price steadily moves to the downside.
Gold: A Potential Sell-off LoomsGold's climb has been nothing short of unprecedented. The precious metal surged by over 2,500 pips in just 11 days and a remarkable year-to-date gain of over 34%, or a 10,000-pip move. This kind of rapid ascent shows that a significant market correction is looming as traders begin to take profits.
Based on historical patterns, Gold often experiences high volatility toward the end of the year, which usually followed by a sharp downward move. The 3600.00 price level is a key psychological and technical resistance point, making it a potential entry for a sell trade.
You may consider a sell trade at or near the 3600.00 price level, anticipating a correction from the current overextended run.
Target are 3450.00 and 3300.00 price levels. (as seen in the chart)
Stay safe in the market and trust your analysis.
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for September 1stGold Support and Resistance:
Daily Chart Resistance: 3500, Support: 3405
4-Hour Chart Resistance: 3490, Support: 3422
1-Hour Chart Resistance: 3490, Support: 3454
News: Gold continued its upward trend in Asian trading on Monday, reaching a high of $3489.8, a new high since April. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with the CME tool showing an 87% probability of a rate cut. This has led to a continued weakening of the US dollar, providing support for non-interest-bearing gold. At the same time, growing market concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence have further weakened the dollar's appeal and increased gold's safe-haven value.
Technical Analysis: The daily candlestick chart is currently maintaining a relatively stable upward trend along the short-term moving average. There are no signs of a peak in the short term. Focus on the resistance zone around 3500 in the short term. Spot gold's 4-hour MACD is currently forming a golden cross with high volume, and the STO indicator is overbought, indicating a bullish trend in the 4-hour chart. Current support lies near the MA5 moving average, corresponding to 3447, followed by the MA10 moving average, at 3430. The NY market is focused on potential selling pressure above 3495-3510, while short-term support below is expected in the 3456-3447 range. My personal recommendation: Buy on dips!
Tonight gold trading recommendations:
BUY: near 3451-3456.
BUY: near 3437-3442.
Consolidation near historical highs is occurring, with increasing buyer/seller liquidity. Use a small S-L position for trading!
Gold Retaracement - Golden RatioAs anyone who has been watching Gold recently knows - We are at AMAZING LEVELS right now!!
This recent breakout has shown gold will likely blow away our expectations for quite some time but as all traders know.... what comes up must sooner or later come down. Since our breakout we have been consitantly been rising with minimium sell offs or profit taking thus far. 4 Hour Chart ha major signs of bear divergence and most levels are overextended to some degree. These current levels are scary for new bulls entering into trades and bears are eager to make something happen. Based on the fib retracement levels I am expecting heavy resistance between 3530-3540. I will be fully prepared to even potentially wick over the 3550 mark - However I also believe the high we climb now the hard the fall later will be. I am shooting for a target profit take of 3450 but will be watching levels vigorously to determine how to adjust my trading accordingly.
Best of luck! Let me know your thoughts, where do you think gold will go next???
Gold Reaches 3500: Buying Dips Remains the Best Strategy
Last week I mentioned that if Gold broke above 3380, the 3400 level would not be an obstacle and we could see acceleration towards 3450 and even 3500.
✅ On Friday, Gold reached my target at 3450.
✅ Last night, the market printed a new ATH above 3500.
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Key Question:
After 6 straight days of almost vertical rise, is a correction finally coming?
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Why a Correction Is Likely:
• Gold has risen more than 1,000 pips in just few days.
• Every intraday dip has been bought aggressively – a sign of exhaustion risk.
• Technically, support zones are now visible at 3470 and 3450.
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Trading Plan:
Selling here is very risky against such a strong trend. Instead, the strategy is simple:
👉 Wait for the correction.
👉 Look to buy dips.
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Conclusion:
My preferred approach remains buying dips, as the uptrend is still powerful. Gold could easily continue its rise above 3500 in the next few days. 🚀