Gold Forecast — Market Turning BullishGold (XAU/USD) maintains a strong long-term bullish trend, supported by rising investor demand and global macroeconomic stability. After completing a healthy correction phase, the market is showing renewed strength, indicating a potential continuation of the broader uptrend.
Current price action reflects accumulation behavior among institutional traders, signaling confidence in gold’s long-term value growth. The consistent pattern of higher lows and steady momentum suggests that buyers are firmly in control, preparing for another upward expansion cycle.
From a fundamental perspective, global inflation concerns, a weaker U.S. dollar, and geopolitical tensions continue to support gold prices. Investors are increasingly seeking protection in safe-haven assets, which further strengthens gold’s long-term position in the market.
Technical structure and sentiment both align with a buy-side outlook, highlighting the potential for gold to extend gains as liquidity continues to build in the current price zones.
In summary, gold remains in a strong buying phase, with market data, investor sentiment, and macroeconomic indicators all favoring sustained upward momentum.
Keywords: Gold forecast, XAU/USD analysis, gold long-term trend, gold price outlook, bullish gold market, gold accumulation phase, forex gold trading, gold price prediction 2025.
Trade ideas
gold next week still downtrend target $3950🧭 Current Market Context (XAUUSD around 4111):
Price is below EMA 9 and failed to break above 4200–4250.
The structure shows lower highs → bearish continuation still dominant.
Momentum is weak, and buying pressure hasn’t confirmed reversal yet.
📉 Primary Plan (Bearish Bias – More Likely)
Entry: Wait for a 4H close below 4070–4050. Enter short/sell once confirmed.
Targets:
TP1 = 3950
TP2 = 3600
TP3 = 3500
TP4 (long-term) = 3100
Stop Loss:
Above 4250 (or above last swing high).
✅ Reason:
Trend still bearish.
EMA and structure show resistance above price.
Strong downside targets available.
✅ Reason: That breakout would invalidate bearish structure and shift momentum up.
⚠️ Key Tips
Don’t trade inside 4050–4250 (range zone, no clear direction).
Follow 4H or Daily candle confirmations — avoid early entries.
Risk only 1–2% of account per trade.
If shorting, take partial profit near 3600 and trail stops.
4,000 Pips Up, 2,000 Down – Gold’s Wild Ride Continues!Last week has been a wild ride for Gold traders, with the price rallying aprox 4,000 pips (around 10%), only to sell off 2,000 pips on Friday in what many expected to be a well-deserved correction.
The big question now is: was that correction enough, or is Gold preparing for another leg down before continuing higher?
In my view, this was just the first leg of the correction, and I expect another wave of selling to come this week.
Currently, Gold is recovering from Friday’s sharp drop, and this rebound could potentially push prices back above 4,300.
If that happens, I’ll be watching closely for signs of weakness to position myself short.
Overall, I believe a new test of the 4,200 area is likely before any sustainable recovery can take place.
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
A fantastic start to the week with price following and the indicator levels on the dip before resuming the move upside into the regions we wanted. We did say yesterday that the move on Friday was a little suspicions and we had a feeling they would correct the move this week, little did we know it would happen in one day.
We have now broken above the level after updating traders suggesting scalps only for the short from the hotspot, which worked well but we're a little stretched now. Support here is way down at the 4310-6 level and resistance stands at 4355 which is where we may get a potential RIP back into support before further advances in price.
KOG’s bias of the week:
Bullish above 4230
Bearish below 4220
RED BOXES:
Break above 4255 for 4265✅, 4270✅, 4284✅ and 4304✅ in extension of the move
Break below 4237 for 4230, 4220, 4210, 4206, 4185 and 4177 in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG
GOLD → Technical analysis of the current situation FX:XAUUSD is consolidating, and the daily market behavior pattern is not particularly positive, but it does have bullish implications. Market sentiment largely depends on the fundamental background
This week, the Fed is expected to hold a meeting on interest rates, where it will most likely decide to lower them, which could generally support the dollar (but this news is most likely already priced in). Accordingly, the rest depends on decisions regarding the shutdown, trade war, and inflation. The resolution of the first two issues may weaken the price.
As for the technical side, since the price is currently within the trading range, it is worth considering trading within these limits first. However, a breakout and closing above/below one of the key levels: 4060 - 4150 could trigger further movement in the direction of the breakout, which in turn could push the price into another (bearish or bullish) trading range. Below, there is the 4000 zone, and there is a possibility of a retest of this area, with a potentially aggressive reaction.
Resistance levels: 4150, 4218, 4275
Support levels: 4060, 4015, 3944
While uncertainty remains, the market may continue to hold the price between 4060 and 4150. Another retest of the range boundary and the reaction to this retest will show the market's intentions for further movement.
Best regards, R. Linda!
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Record day here on Gold with price accelerating downside wiping gains above 4200 which was a key level for bulls to defend. The move however, was long awaited and although we didn't get it from the top, we got the break on the bias level and then consequently completed out targets surpassing the extension of the move and hitting the target we had given for the bears.
Now, very important close here with support below at the 4104 level and resistance above at the red box which is circled. 4120 is the level that needs to cross to begin some form of retracement, otherwise, we continue with the move downside targeting the next red box.
From Camelot this morning:
Price: 4270
RED BOXES:
Break above 4275 for 4283, 4295 and 4303 in extension of the move
Break below 4256 for 4250✅, 4233✅ and 4210✅ in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAUUSD – Gold Recovers After US-China TensionsGold prices recently rose by nearly 1% during the Asian trading session on Thursday, recovering from two consecutive days of declines. The main reason for this is the renewed US-China trade tensions , which have increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold. At the same time, investors are awaiting important inflation data from the US , which could significantly impact the gold trend moving forward.
Technically, the chart shows that gold has experienced a slight correction after a strong rise from 4,060,000 USD. It is currently fluctuating within the range of 4,060,000 USD – 4,200,000 USD. Both EMA34 and EMA89 are supporting the price from below, confirming that the uptrend remains intact, despite the temporary correction.
Trading Strategy:
Buy if gold holds above 4,060,000 USD, with a target towards 4,200,000 USD.
Sell if gold fails to break through 4,200,000 USD and returns to test support at 4,060,000 USD.
In conclusion, with rising trade tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets, gold is on a strong uptrend and is likely to continue testing the 4,200,000 USD resistance level in the near future.
Technical Correction – Bullish Structure Remains IntactHello everyone, after a strong rally to new highs, gold (XAU/USD) is entering a necessary corrective phase before deciding its next direction. On the H1 timeframe, price is temporarily consolidating around $4,090 – a key support area where buyers are beginning to show signs of defence.
From a technical perspective, the overall bullish structure remains intact as price continues to form liquidity zones followed by FVG fills. The $4,090–$4,080 zone still acts as the short-term defensive line for buyers. If this area holds, gold may rebound to retest $4,120–$4,130 – a region where selling pressure previously intensified. Ichimoku Cloud remains below price and has yet to signal a bearish reversal, indicating that this move is still a correction rather than distribution.
On the news side, gold continues to receive medium-term support from expectations of a Fed rate cut in December, a cooling US dollar, declining bond yields and lingering geopolitical risks. While US–China trade dialogue may offer temporary signs of easing tension, institutional capital still favours defensive positioning, keeping gold within its broader uptrend.
In the short term, I prioritise the scenario of gold extending its correction to gather liquidity around $4,080–$4,090 before potentially resuming its upside. Only a decisive break below this zone with strong bearish momentum would expose the psychological level at $4,000.
What do you think about gold’s current trend – is this just a healthy pullback or an early warning of a deeper decline?
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATE & TRADING PLAN FOR THE WEEKHey Everyone,
Please see our updated 4h chart levels and targets for the coming week.
We are seeing price play between two weighted levels with a gap above at 4333 and a gap below at 4225. We will need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will see levels tested side by side until one of the weighted levels break and lock to confirm direction for the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
4333
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4333 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
4422
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4422 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
4494
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 4494 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
4572
BEARISH TARGETS
4225
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4225 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3985
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 4122 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3985
3857
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3857 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3741
3632
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold ready for retest ath 4380Gold (XAU/USD) showing bullish reaction from the support trendline. The circled candle indicates buyer strength, suggesting a possible recovery toward 4279–4380 resistance levels.
Support Trend Line:
Shows long-term bullish structure — price respecting the ascending trendline.
Support Zone (4181 – 4253):
Key demand area where buyers are stepping in to defend the trend.
4279 Level:
Immediate resistance; a breakout above could confirm short-term bullish momentum.
4313 Level:
Next resistance target after 4279; possible area for partial profit-taking.
4380 Level (ATH Retest):
Major resistance zone — potential final target if bullish move continues.
Indicates buyer reaction at the trendline, signaling possible reversal toward 4279.
Why Did Gold Plunge Yesterday – Key Factors ExplainedHello everyone, the gold market just experienced a dramatic session, with the front-month futures contract falling over 5.39% in a single day, marking the deepest drop since June 2013. This sharp correction follows an extended period of rapid gains, forcing many traders to reassess the short-term trend.
Main reasons behind the sharp drop
Correction after strong growth: Gold has surged over 128% from its 2011 baseline, but the lack of intermittent pullbacks created expectations for a significant retracement. When the correction occurred, it happened quickly and steeply, just as many veteran traders anticipated.
Divergence with silver: Although silver fell 7.2%, its decline was “modest” compared to gold. Gold’s parabolic rise contrasted with silver’s steadier gains, reinforcing the likelihood that gold would continue adjusting while silver maintained a sustainable upward trajectory.
Historical surge dynamics: From lows around 2,500 USD/oz, gold soared past 4,200 USD with hardly any meaningful consolidation. A long-term surge without pullbacks almost inevitably leads to sharp reversals, clearly illustrated by yesterday’s drop.
With the Double Top pattern fully formed and the neckline broken, I expect gold could fall to the strong support zone around 4,000 USD or lower if the decline continues. Current resistance stands at 4,200 USD, a level difficult for gold to reclaim in the short term. The market is confirming a downtrend, so traders should monitor the support zones closely to identify optimal entry points.
Do you think this is a buying opportunity at lower gold prices or just a temporary dip? Share your thoughts below!
XAUUSD – Increased Selling Pressure After CPI DataHello traders,
With U.S. CPI rising sharply to 3.1% (compared to the forecast of 2.9%), inflation remains elevated, reinforcing the likelihood that the Fed will not cut interest rates anytime soon. With higher interest rates, the opportunity cost of holding gold (a non-yielding asset) increases, causing capital to flow into USD, which is a negative factor for gold.
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD is facing pressure at the 4.150 level, with a pullback pattern forming within a descending channel. After reaching this level, the price of gold is likely to continue its decline, with the next target being the 4.080 support area, and potentially heading toward 3.830 if the bearish momentum persists.
Additionally, while both the PMI for manufacturing and services have slightly decreased , reflecting a slowdown in the U.S. economy, the CPI remains the dominant factor , limiting the potential for gold's short-term price increase.
Gold Key Levels (4000-4400$)These are the Gold key levels which I’ll be using for trading.
Here’s how I trade these levels:
- Close above a level → Buy setup
When a candle closes clearly above a level, it confirms bullish momentum and I look to enter long immediately after the close.
- Close below a level → Sell setup
A confirmed candle close below support signals bearish strength, and I enter short right after the close.
- Rejection from a level → Opposite trade
If price shows a strong rejection from a level, I trade in the opposite direction - rejection from resistance = sell setup, rejection from support = buy setup.
These levels works well for both day trading (using 1H candles) and scalping (using 15M or lower timeframes). It keeps trading simple, just reactions to market behaviour.
GOLD → Consolidation. 4269 - trigger. Chances for growth?Gold is consolidating due to uncertainty. On Friday, the market broke its local structure, which slightly changed sentiment. Focus on current consolidation.
Key drivers of the week: Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports and China's response supported demand for safe havens. Problems with regional banks (Zions, Western Alliance) and the fall in Treasury bond yields below 4% increased the inflow into gold. Powell maintained a neutral tone, but markets are expecting two rate cuts in 2024.
All eyes are on inflation data, US-China negotiations, developments between Russia, the US, and China; any de-escalation of the situation could trigger a correction.
Technically, the upward trend in gold remains relevant. Corrections will be bought up as long as uncertainty surrounding trade policy, the banking sector, and the Fed's monetary policy persists.
Resistance levels: 4269, 4316
Support levels: 4251, 4218
At the moment, a pre-breakout base is forming around 4269. If the structure remains intact and the price continues to attack resistance, the chances of a breakout and growth will be high. Otherwise, a close below 4251 could trigger a retest of 4218.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold price correction is within expectations, waiting for layout
News:
When it comes to long-term gold trading, attempting to find a "perfect low" is often unrealistic. While Friday's drop of nearly $200 in gold may seem dramatic, it's only half of last week's gains, making the correction still within reasonable bounds. After hitting 4186, prices quickly stabilized and rebounded to 4247, forming a typical bottoming-out pattern. This level is the 0.5 retracement support level of this week's upward trend.
Specifically:
Opportunities often lurk amidst sharp declines. After Friday's pullback to key support, bullish sentiment has stabilized. We maintain a bullish outlook for the start of the week and recommend placing long positions in batches above Friday's low.
Based on recent trends, the market is expected to trade sideways and rise slowly at the beginning of the week, with a focus on the 4220-4210 support zone. If the Asian session can break through and hold the 4275-4285 pressure zone, then you can follow up with long orders in the European and American sessions; if it maintains volatility, then wait patiently for opportunities to accumulate at low levels and stick to the long strategy on pullbacks.
Trading strategy:
Buy: 4225-4220, SL: 4210, TP: 4275-4300
Gold consolidating a new high zone pullback from support Gold is currently consolidating after a sharp reaction, with price action moving quickly and testing the new high zone. Technically, the price broke the 4,000 level but experienced a pullback from above this support area. The next directional move will likely depend on a breakout from the current consolidation range.
A clear break above resistance could trigger a move toward the next resistance zone at 4,165–4,200 a break below the range would suggest that gold remains neutral to bearish in the short term may test the support again rebound to upside.
You may find more details in the chart.
Trade wisely best of Luck buddies.
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Gold Consolidation a Next Growth OpportunityGold prices are currently consolidating after recent volatility. On Friday, the market broke its local structure, slightly shifting overall sentiment and prompting traders to focus on the current consolidation zone.
On Tuesday, gold prices rose as easing U.S.–China trade tensions and reduced concerns over banking sector credit risks supported risk appetite. However, this improved sentiment also limited gold’s upside as some safe-haven demand faded. Despite signs that the rally may be overextended, investors continue to show buying interest in gold.
Recently, gold experienced a breakout followed by a sharp pullback, reaching support near 4244. The price has since rebounded and is currently trading around 4270. If the price continues to test and break above the immediate resistance, there is a strong potential for upward movement towards 4318–4358. Conversely, failure to sustain above 4248 and a close below this level could trigger further downside pressure, potentially pushing the price towards 4200 or lower correctio.
You may find more details in the chart.
Trade wisely best of luck Buddies.
Ps; Support with like and comments for better analysis Thanks for Supporting.
#XAUUSD: +6000 Pips Swing Move In Making, Patience Pays!
Gold prices have fallen sharply as the DXY has regained strength. Following the recent significant sell-off, we can anticipate the potential direction of the price. Three key targets can be considered if the price moves in our favour. The first is a nearby target at $4000 which would represent a gain of 1100 pips. Subsequent targets should be determined according to your trading plan.
There are two potential entry points; if the first is invalidated the second should be considered.
We wish you the best of luck and trade safely.
Team Setupsfx 🚀❤️
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Yesterday we shared the hot spots together with the levels which as you can see worked well paired with the red box holding price down to play the range.
Now, with buyers starting to lose faith and start hedging longs from above, we need some more confidence in the up move in our opinion. For that reason, we will say that the baseline here sits are 4030 and above that level we may be looking at the 4070-74 level initially. We need to form a swing here to at least meet the voids.
Price: 4089
RED BOXES:
Break above 4095 for 4110, 4125 and 4140 in extension of the move
Break below 4082 for 4064✅, 4050✅ and 4020✅ in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold Hesitates Ahead of U.S. CPI — Watching the 4000 ZoneGold Hesitates Ahead of U.S. CPI — Watching the 4000 Zone
From the analysis I shared yesterday, gold reached the first target near 4152 before pulling back.
The market is currently hesitating to move further, mainly due to uncertainty around the upcoming U.S. CPI data. I’m not interpreting the data this time, as its impact on gold can be unpredictable — gold often moves independently of fundamentals.
I believe gold may rise once more toward the 4000–4060 zone, as shown on the chart. However, traders should remain cautious since the news could bring significant volatility.
Targets remain unchanged.
Keep in mind that a break below 4000 could confirm a bearish wave, potentially followed by an aggressive rebound — a classic false sell-off scenario.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
GOLD → A psychologically important level of $4,000 lies aheadFX:XAUUSD continues to correct, unable to consolidate above $4,100, with the 4K mark ahead. Pressure is intensifying due to hopes for a trade deal between the US and China, as well as profit-taking ahead of the Fed's decision on interest rates...
Key factors:
Progress in trade negotiations: the US has withdrawn the threat of 100% tariffs, and China may support the situation. Thursday's meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping increases the chances of a deal.
Bets on two rate cuts in 2024 are almost fully priced in. US inflation (3% y/y) was lower than forecast (3.1%), but did not change expectations.
The correction may continue if the positive backdrop for the trade deal remains. The Fed's decision on Wednesday will be a key catalyst.
Technically, the 4K zone is ahead, and it is too early to talk about a break of this support, as we do not know how the market will react. However, at the moment, the price is in the range of 4000-4163, and from a technical analysis point of view, it is logical to consider a false breakdown and a pullback.
Support levels: 4000, 3975, 3944
Resistance levels: 4060, 4090, 4163
As part of the decline, the market may test one of the specified zones: 4000, 3975, 3944. However, since a liquidity pool has formed below 4K, the reaction to the psychological support level may be aggressive. It is important to monitor the situation, as closing below 4K and consolidating below a strong level could trigger a further decline. Otherwise, if the bulls manage to hold their ground above 4K and bring the price back above 4050, the market may have a chance to grow.
Best regards, R. Linda!
Gold forming a consolidation range What should Next?Gold prices continue to correct to the downside, forming a consolidation range near current levels. The market remains supported, but momentum is weakening as the US Dollar strengthens amid a local bullish trend.
As long as the dollar maintains its upward correction, downside pressure on gold is likely to persist. a break below the trading range support could trigger further declines toward the 4,070 4,005 zone (support area). This level may act as a potential retest zone for buyers. For now, it’s best to wait for price action to slow down near the lower boundary of the range before considering new trades — patience and confirmation are key to avoid false breaks.
You may find more datils in the chart,
Trade wisely best of Luck Buddies.
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