GOLDMINICFD trade ideas
all-time highs.Trend: Overall, gold has been in a strong uptrend since early 2025, following a rising support trendline.
Resistance: A horizontal resistance zone was tested multiple times before being broken recently around 3,450 – 3,500.
Support: The rising support trendline and the horizontal level around 3,450 now act as strong support.
Current Price: Around 3,544.62 at the time of the chart.
Pattern: Price formed higher highs and higher lows, respecting the trendline, then broke above resistance.
Projection:
A possible pullback toward the support zone (3,450 area) before continuation higher.
Next target is the ATH zone (around 3,700 – 3,750) marked on the chart.
In short: The chart suggests a bullish structure with potential short-term retracement before another leg up toward all-time highs.
Upside target is around the DOL (3,580 zone).The pair is trading at 3,548.15 (current level).
A stop loss hunt occurred earlier, clearing liquidity below before price pushed higher.
A Break of Structure (BOS) confirmed the bullish intent.
There’s a visible Fair Value Gap (FVG) between 3,500 – 3,510, which may act as a magnet for price to retrace into.
The structure suggests a possible pullback to fill the FVG, grab liquidity, and then continue higher.
Upside target is around the DOL (3,580 zone).
Overall bias: Bullish, but expecting a retracement before continuation.
September 4th Gold Intraday Trading Insights and Strategies:
I. Overall Approach
Long-term Trend: The bullish outlook remains unchanged.
Short-term Outlook: Gold prices are at historical highs, with technical indicators showing overbought conditions and a top divergence. Intraday volatility is expected to intensify. In terms of operation, the main idea is to go long at a low level after a pullback, and be cautious when chasing high prices. Aggressive traders may consider shorting at key resistance levels with a small position, maintaining strict stop-loss orders.
II. Key Technical Levels
Support Levels:
Primary Support: $3535-3540 (4-hour support and yesterday's low)
Strong Support: $3525-3535 (deeper pullback support)
Resistance Levels:
Initial Resistance: $3565-3570 (initial resistance during the Asian and European sessions)
Key Resistance: $3578 (near the previous high)
Upside Target: $3590-3600
III. Specific Trading Strategies
1. Long Strategy (Main Strategy)
Ideal Long Level: $3535-3540. Enter after stabilization with a stop-loss below $3525, targeting $3570-3578. After a breakout, hold further to $3590-3600.
Radical entry point: around $3550-3555 (hourly support). Try with a small position, set a stop-loss below $3540, and the same target as above. Conservative Strategy: Patiently wait for the price to fall back to the strong support area of $3525-3535 before going long. Set a stop-loss below $3510 and target $3560-3580.
2. Short Strategy (Secondary Strategy, for aggressive short-term trading only)
Entry Timing: If gold rebounds to the $3565-3570 area and shows clear resistance signals (such as a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern or a long upper shadow), or fails to break through the previous high of $3578, a small position can be used to try shorting.
Stop-loss: Above $3585.
Target: $3540-3550.
IV. Core Risks and Position Management
Data Risk: Today will see the release of the US ADP employment data ("small non-farm payroll") and initial jobless claims data. These data will be important foreshadowing tomorrow's non-farm payroll report and could trigger significant market volatility.
Trading Recommendation: Reduce positions or exit the market 1-2 hours before the data release. If you hold a position, you must set a loose stop loss to deal with sudden fluctuations.
Technical Risks: The RSI on the daily chart is in overbought territory, and the 4-hour chart is at risk of forming a top divergence, increasing the probability of a short-term technical correction. Avoid excessive buying after consecutive upward moves.
Position management: Intraday trading positions should not be too heavy, ensuring that single losses are controlled within 1%-2% of total funds.
Gold Hits Record Highs: Trade Fed Drama & Jobs Data!Fundamental Analysis: Why Gold Keeps Rising? 🌟
New Record Highs: Gold hit an all-time high before US jobs data revealed a sharper-than-expected drop in July 2025 job openings and moderate hiring, signaling a loosening labor market. This weakness boosted gold, with the next target at $3,600/oz. 📈
Fed Rate Cut Odds Soar: Post-data, the market raised the probability of a 0.25% rate cut at the Sept 16-17 meeting from 92% to 98%, per CME FedWatch. Fed Governor Christopher Waller emphasized the need for a cut this month, with the pace depending on economic developments. 🏦
Upcoming Data in Focus: Investors are eyeing ADP employment and unemployment claims today (04/09), plus the official payrolls report on 05/09—these could shape Fed actions and gold’s trajectory.
Fed Drama Intensifies: On Sept 3, Governor Lisa Cook detailed her opposition to Trump’s attempt to fire her, while Trump has repeatedly criticized Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates this year. Concerns over Fed independence are eroding confidence in USD assets, driving investors to gold. Trump is set to appeal tariffs to the Supreme Court after two lower court losses. ⚖️🇺🇸
Gold’s Ideal Environment: As a non-yielding asset, gold thrives in uncertainty and low-rate settings—perfect for the current landscape!
Technical Analysis: Strong Uptrend, Prioritize BUY but Watch for Pullbacks! 📉
After the Asian open, gold dipped sharply to the 351x zone before rebounding quickly above 352x. This may reflect institutions dumping to capture retail liquidity—a common move during continuous ATHs that leave large FVGs. Prioritize BUY if gold holds above 352x, but if it fails to break 365x today, consider a SELL reversal, especially with ADP Nonfarm data looming. Stay cautious for volatility!
Key Resistance: 3545 - 3561 - 3578 - 3586 - 3596
Key Support: 3521 - 3508 - 3493 - 3475
Trading Opportunities:
Sell Scalp: 3560-3562
SL: 3566
TP: 3557 - 3552 - 3547
Sell Zone: 3594 - 3596
SL: 3604
TP: 3586 - 3576 - 3566 - 3566 - 3546
Buy Scalp: 3508 - 3506
SL: 3502
TP: 3511 - 3516 - 3521
Buy Zone: 3493 - 3491
SL: 3483
TP: 3501 - 3511 - 3521 - 3531 - Open
Gold is red-hot, but today’s data could spark volatility—manage risk tightly! If it holds above 352x, bulls could push to new highs. 📊💡
#Gold #XAUUSD #Fed #Trump #TradingView #MarketUpdate #Forex #Investing #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldTrading #Finance #Crypto
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to resistance area of 3460.Dear colleagues, the idea is generally simple and clear.
In the upward movement of waves “3”, “4”, “5” the price should update the maximum of waves ‘D’ and “B” 3448.87.
This means that we should expect the price in the area of 3460.
The target is quite close and I think there is reason to believe that it will be reached next week.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
XAUUSD 30M – Intraday Plan Around the RangePrice is holding between $3,417.84 (resistance) and $3,403.41 (support). We’re trading around $3,410–$3,411 inside a tight box. Scalps can work, but reversals are quick.
🔼 Bullish Plan (needs confirmation)
Trigger: A clean 30min body close above $3,417.84 (not just a wick).
Targets: $3,419.55 → $3,420.54 → $3,422.10.
Management: Take partials at $3,419.55, move SL to breakeven once $3,418 holds on a retest.
🔽 Bearish Plan (cleaner below support)
Trigger: 30min body close below $3,403.41.
Targets: $3,401.29 → $3,398.36 (trail if sellers stay in control).
Management: Scale partials at $3,401.29, protect the rest at breakeven.
🔄 Range Scalp (higher risk, small size)
Shorts: $3,416–$3,417 on a clear rejection → aim $3,410–$3,412, SL above rejection high / $3,420.
Longs: $3,403–$3,404 on a strong rejection wick → aim mid-range, SL below $3,401.
✅ Break Confirmation
Strong 30min close through the level.
❌ Invalidation
Breakout closes back inside the box on the next candle (trap).
Multiple wick with no momentum.
📌 Bottom Line
Above $3,417.84 → bullish bias to $3,420.54 and $3,422.10.
Below $3,403.41 → bearish bias to $3,401.29 and $3,398.36.
Inside the box = scalp only, keep risk tight.
Long position in 3545 gold has been profitable.The "mini non-farm" data fell short of expectations, causing the US dollar index to resume its downward trend. Gold rose as expected. Congratulations to those who bought long positions near 3545. The current gain is already over ten dollars. The market is now in a minor range-bound consolidation. It seems to be waiting for the release of the major non-farm data to decide on the direction. Due to the significant impact of the data release on the market, conservative friends can first close their long positions and wait for the data to be released before finding an appropriate entry point.
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XAUUSD – Intraday Outlook📌 Key Zones:
Support 1: 3550 – 3548
Support 2: 3531 (only if 3550 fails)
Resistance: 3563 – 3570
📊 London Open Expectation:
Price may dip into 3550 – 3548 zone before reversing upward.
A successful bounce here should target 3563 – 3570.
⚠️ Risk Scenario:
If 3550 support breaks with rejection, price could extend lower toward 3531 support zone.
🔑 Trading Bias:
Buy dips near 3550 – 3548 for upside towards 3563 – 3570.
Avoid chasing breakouts; wait for confirmation at key levels.
Breakdown of 3550 cancels bullish idea → next support 3531.
XAU ASIAN/LONDON OUTLOOKHey Guys,
XAUUSD 15M Analysis(5th September 2025)
BUY/SELL SCENARIOS:
BUYS:
1)Body Candle Close above the 3558.89 level.
2) Retest the 15m Bullish CHoCH at the 3558.89 level.
3)Create a 3/5m Bullish Engulfing Candle to capitalize on BUYS towards the 3600.00 level.
SELLS:
1) Body candle close below the 3540.22 level.
2)Retest the 15m Bearish CHoCH at the 3540.22 level.
3) Create a 3/5m Bearish Engulfing candle to capitalize on SELLS towards the 3511.60 level.
It's Friday, Trade with a plan not with emotions!!
Gold (XAUUSD) Intraday Analysis – Key Levels and Trading StrategMarket Overview
Gold (XAUUSD) has shown strong bullish momentum since late August, but the current structure reveals signs of exhaustion around the 3,565 – 3,570 zone, marked as a Weak High. Price action on the H1 timeframe shows multiple Break of Structure (BOS) and liquidity sweeps, suggesting a potential short-term correction before the next directional move.
The EMA layers (20 – 50 – 100 – 200) remain supportive of the medium-term uptrend, yet sellers are defending the resistance zone aggressively.
Key Support and Resistance Zones
Major Resistance (Plan A): 3,565 – 3,570 (Weak High zone).
Immediate Support: 3,538 – 3,540.
Key Demand Zone (Plan B): 3,505 – 3,515 and deeper at 3,471.
A confirmed break below 3,471 could extend the retracement toward 3,440 – 3,400.
Trading Plans
Scalp Sell (Plan A – Primary Setup)
Entry: 3,566.xx – 3,555.xx
Stop Loss: 3,570
Take Profit: 3,525 → extend toward 3,505
Rationale: Shorting from resistance, capitalizing on liquidity above Weak High.
Buy the Dip (Plan B – Secondary Setup)
Entry: 3,505 – 3,515 or 3,471
Stop Loss: below 3,460
Take Profit: 3,538 → 3,565
Rationale: Buying from strong demand zones aligned with EMA confluence.
Conclusion
Gold is likely to consolidate around 3,550 before retesting the 3,565 – 3,570 resistance. Scalp selling from the upper zone offers the best short-term opportunity, while a deeper retracement toward 3,505 – 3,471 could provide an attractive buy-the-dip setup in line with the broader bullish trend.
Stay alert to intraday price reactions and manage risk carefully. Save this outlook for reference throughout today’s session to track how price develops.
XAUUSD (15m) – Breakout & Pullback From Supply ZoneFOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Structure | Trend | Key Reaction Zones
Gold broke out strongly above consolidation, reaching 3539 supply zone resistance, before pulling back. Price is now consolidating between 3524 – 3508 levels.
Market Overview
Momentum remains bullish overall, but short-term supply pressure near 3539 has triggered profit-taking. The 3508 support area is crucial – holding above it keeps the uptrend intact, while a breakdown could extend correction lower.
Key Scenarios
✅ Bullish Case 🚀 →
🎯 Target 1: 3539
🎯 Target 2: 3550
🎯 Extended: 3565
❌ Bearish Case 📉 →
🎯 Downside Target 1: 3508
🎯 Downside Target 2: 3491
🎯 Extended: 3475
Current Levels to Watch
Resistance 🔴: 3539 – 3550
Support 🟢: 3524 – 3508
⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Gold Analysis and StrategyGold has pulled back to around 3511 and then rebounded, continuing its rebound. As I previously suggested, this pullback is merely a normal digestion after a significant surge. Once support is confirmed, the price will resume its upward trend. Long positions opened around 3540 have also been profitable. This aligns with the strategic principle that every pullback presents an opportunity to open long positions.
Currently, gold is fluctuating between 3535 and 3558, with minimal fluctuations. It seems we need to await tomorrow night's non-farm payroll data for guidance. Before Friday's release, I believe it's likely to continue fluctuating within a small range. Therefore, with limited room for movement, positions can be closed with a profit.
Strategic Approach
Gold's short-term trend is characterized by strong, high-level fluctuations. If the price pulls back to support levels of 3535, 3525, and 3510 tonight, long positions can still be opened. I personally maintain a bullish outlook on any further pullbacks. Upward targets are 3565 and 3580.
curve reversal structure 15M time frame dear traders
as key points you see the half of reversal curve structure that going to completing .
as mentioned structure rules you can drive on SL point as entry with risk of minimum lots or take an action with entry point as picture : 3530.503 $
SL : 3541.977
sell TP point for full target is : 3499.364
Gold September Seasonality (Last 10 Years: 2015–2024)Gold is heading into September after a monster run in 2024/25. Unlike the “September slump” you hear about in crypto, gold’s last decade shows mostly mild, tactical moves in September—often driven by real yields, the dollar, and physical demand cycles. Once any early-month wobble plays out, dips have tended to be opportunities within the prevailing trend.
📊 Gold September Seasonality (Last 10 Years: 2015–2024)
Yearly September Returns
Year 📈 Return
2024 🟢 +4.99%
2023 🔴 −3.73%
2022 🔴 −2.32%
2021 🔴 −4.59%
2020 🔴 −3.70%
2019 🔴 −2.55%
2018 🔴 −1.93%
2017 🔴 −1.44%
2016 🟢 +1.02%
2015 🔴 −0.27%
📌 At-a-glance stats (2015–2024)
📉 Mean (10-yr): −1.45%
⚖️ Median: −2.13%
🔴 Red months: 8 out of 10
❌ Worst September: 2021 (−4.59%)
✅ Best September: 2024 (+4.99%)
📅 Recent Performance (last 3 years)
2024: 🟢 +4.99% → strongest September in the set
2023: 🔴 −3.73% → higher real yields weighed on bullion
2022: 🔴 −2.32% → strong USD + aggressive Fed hikes
➡️ Average of last 3 years: 🔴 −0.35%
➡️ Average of last 5 years (2020–2024): 🔴 −1.87%
________________________________________
🔎 Key Insights
• Gentle September bias: Over the last decade, September has skewed slightly negative for gold (mean −1.45%), but the drawdowns are modest compared to risk assets.
• Cycle matters more than calendar: 2020–2023 saw consistent reds as the dollar firmed and real yields rose; 2024 flipped green as rate-cut expectations and central-bank demand underpinned prices.
• Long-term seasonality ≠ last-decade reality: Multi-decade studies often show gold firming into late summer/early autumn (festival/jewelry demand, restocking), but the last 10 years were dominated by policy and yields—diluting that classic pattern.
________________________________________
🚀 Macro & Market Context
• 2019–2020: Trade tensions into COVID—gold corrected in Sep ’19 (−2.6%) and more so in Sep ’20 (−3.7%) after August’s spike to new highs.
• 2021: Fed taper talk + rising real yields → weakest September (−4.6%).
• 2022: King Dollar & rapid hikes → another red September (−2.3%).
• 2023: Real yields kept pressure on bullion (−3.7%).
• 2024: Sentiment flipped on policy expectations and persistent central-bank demand → solid +5.0% September.
________________________________________
🧭 Takeaway
Gold’s September over the last decade has leaned slightly bearish, but mostly in controlled, single-digit moves. The signal isn’t “sell September,” it’s “watch real yields, the USD, and physical flows.” When those line up, the calendar fade loses its bite—as 2024 showed.
SMART MONEY CONCEPT (SMC)📈 Trade Breakdown – GOLD
🔑 Main Idea:
This trade played out exactly as planned: liquidity grab (fake out), rejection, and bullish continuation straight to target 3,515.
📝 Step by Step:
1. BOS + Resistance zone
• Price broke above resistance with strength.
• Institutions left liquidity resting above.
2. Fake out & Rejection
• Market created a fake out, trapping early buyers/sellers.
• Clear rejection confirmed institutional absorption.
3. Bullish Continuation
• After rejection, price followed the institutional order flow.
• Strong momentum pushed it directly upward.
4. Target Hit – 3,515
• Price reached the liquidity pool at 3,515.
• Stops above previous highs were taken out → perfect take profit.
🎯 Lesson for Traders
• Wait for the liquidity grab (fake out).
• Confirm with rejection / ChoCh.
• Ride the move toward the next liquidity pool.
• Patience + discipline = clean trades.