Position Longs with 4250 as Key SupportGold maintained a consolidative pattern on Monday, gradually rebounding after testing the 4188 low and reaching a high near 4270. Technically, the price is currently trading within a bull flag consolidation pattern on the hourly chart. Key support has shifted higher to the 4250 level, while initial resistance lies in the 4280-90 zone. The market awaits a directional breakout.
For trading, use 4250 as a key support reference to position long orders on dips. The near-term target is the 4280-90 area. If gold manages to close firmly above 4290 during the U.S. session, it would signal a potential end to the consolidation phase, opening the path toward 4300 and possibly 4310. Conversely, a breakdown below 4250 would indicate a deeper correction risk.
Closely monitor the 4280-90 resistance band and the integrity of 4250 support. Trade in the direction of the confirmed breakout and ensure strict stop-loss placement for risk control.
Trade ideas
What to Do When the Market Is in an Uptrend?Hello everyone,
When the market is rising , most traders get excited. Every price push feels like a wave of enthusiasm – everyone believes they are on the winning side. But in reality, even in the most favorable conditions, not everyone makes a profit . The simple reason: a rising market does not automatically mean a win; it’s about knowing when to buy and when to wait . I’ve seen many traders jump into positions just because the price is going up, only to be surprised when the market pulls back . An uptrend is not a straight line up, but a series of higher highs – pullbacks – higher highs , and the winners are those who know how to choose the right timing.
Confirm the Trend – Don’t Confuse Uptrend with a Technical Rebound:
Before placing a trade , the first step is to confirm whether the market is truly in an uptrend . A proper uptrend should have higher highs and higher lows , with the price staying above moving averages like EMA 20, EMA 50, or above the Ichimoku Kumo cloud . If the price just bounced from a low after a sharp decline, it may only be a technical rebound , and confusing the two can make you buy at the top . For example, when gold keeps forming new highs at 1,920 – 1,940 USD/ounce, while the lows remain higher than the previous ones, the money flow clearly supports the uptrend .
Buy on Pullbacks – “Buy the Dip” Is a Smart Entry:
Once the uptrend is confirmed, the next step is to choose the right entry point . Don’t rush to follow the price when the market is flying , as every uptrend has pause phases . Each minor correction or pullback is a chance to buy the dip . Watch important support zones , such as Fibonacci 0.5 or 0.618 or unfilled FVG areas . When the price touches these levels and shows a reversal signal , it is usually the highest probability entry point .
Note: even in an uptrend , the market may experience shakes due to profit-taking or short-term adjustments . This is normal and should not cause panic. In fact, the pullback is an opportunity to buy at a better price . Wait for a confirmation signal from candlestick reversals or indicators like RSI not oversold . For example, if gold rises from 1,900 to 1,940 and then pulls back slightly to 1,915 – 1,920, this can be a good entry , instead of chasing at the peak .
Risk Management – Stop Loss and Take Profit:
Even when the market is rising , risk management is crucial. Place Stop Loss below higher lows or the nearest support zone to protect against sharp pullbacks. Take Profit can be set at the next resistance zone , or use trailing stop to lock in profits as the price continues upward. For example, buying gold at 1,915 USD/ounce , you could place SL below 1,905 and TP near the resistance at 1,950 USD.
Monitor Macro News – Don’t Let Big Waves Sweep Away Profits:
A strong trend always has a reason behind it: monetary policies , inflation data , or global capital flows . Staying informed helps you avoid being caught off guard.
I’ve covered this part, you can click here to read more.
Patience and Discipline – Two Weapons to Survive an Uptrend:
One of the biggest challenges for traders is… standing still . When the market keeps rising , FOMO (fear of missing out) can make you jump in immediately, but most hasty trades end up buying right before a pullback . I’ve made this mistake many times – buying when the price is flying , then watching the position turn red in a few hours. Later, I realized that in an uptrend , patience to wait for a pullback is the key to winning. Wait for the price to return to a support zone , wait for a confirmation signal , then enter.
Discipline is not only about entry timing but also risk management . Place Stop Loss below the nearest low , Take Profit at the next resistance zone , and if the price continues upward , move SL favorably – trailing stop protects profits without exiting too early. Emotions are the biggest enemy of a trader ; greed or rushing leads to wrong decisions. Following your plan and discipline avoids unnecessary losses.
An uptrend is a perfect time to increase profits , but it can also make traders complacent . If you can identify the trend , wait for the right entry , and maintain discipline , you will not only ride the wave but also survive it. Is the market rising? The question is not whether to buy or not , but whether you have enough patience to wait for the right moment .
GOLD bounces back, hopes of policy reversalOANDA:XAUUSD reversed dramatically in the trading session on October 14, after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell sent a clear dovish message, indicating that the Fed is ready to continue its rate-cutting cycle despite political uncertainty and the US government shutdown.
As of the time of writing, gold quickly recovered to $4,178 per ounce, up 0.89% on the day. The main driver came from expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 0.25% in October, a signal that Powell reinforced in his speech at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting.
Powell said the outlook for jobs and inflation “has not changed materially” since the September meeting, when the Fed began easing. But he stressed that risks to the labor market are rising, hiring has slowed, and unemployment could soon rise again after a long period of deep decline. “We are at a point where further deterioration in the labor market could start to show up in the unemployment rate,” Powell said, hinting at the possibility that the Fed may have to act more quickly to protect the expansion.
The announcement is seen as a turning point in policy direction, especially after Powell admitted that the Fed is considering ending the process of shrinking its balance sheet, a factor that has tightened global liquidity over the past year. Many organizations such as TD Securities believe that the Fed could announce the end of this program as early as the October meeting, paving the way for a clearly easing monetary environment from November.
The reaction in financial markets was immediate: the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell to 4.03%, the DXY index fell 0.25% to 99.00, showing that the Dollar is under new selling pressure. At the same time, safe-haven flows returned to the gold market, reinforcing the rapid recovery of this precious metal.
Markets saw Powell’s message as not only reassuring after a period of intense volatility, but also as opening up the possibility that the Fed is preparing for a prolonged easing cycle.
Broadly, the Fed is shifting its focus from containing inflation to protecting growth and jobs, a strategic shift. With global growth slowing, geopolitical risks spreading, and US-China trade tensions rising, Powell appears to prioritize maintaining liquidity and financial stability over further tightening.
Gold prices have risen more than 57% year-to-date, supported by safe-haven demand, strong central bank buying, and large inflows into gold ETFs. Institutions such as Bank of America and Société Générale are now raising their gold price forecasts to $5,000/ounce by 2026, in a scenario where the Fed ends its tightening cycle and the dollar enters a period of structural weakness.
If the Fed confirms its dovish stance at its October meeting, investors expect this could be a turning point in global monetary policy, with gold continuing to serve as a “confident gauge” of Powell’s management ability and the resilience of the US financial system.
Technical outlook analysis OANDA:XAUUSD
Trend Overview
• Main Trend: Strongly bullish, price remains in an ascending channel, a series of long-bodied candles shows that buyers are in control.
• Technical Momentum: RSI in overbought zone (>75), momentum is still there but signals a risk of a short-term correction.
Important levels on the chart
• Near resistance: $4,213 (Fib 0.618). Next extension zone $4,286 – $4,378.
• Near support: $4,100 (psychological level), followed by $4,060 and $4,000 (strong support/low MA).
Short-term scenario & warnings
• Preferred scenario (trend-follow): maintain medium-term bullish view if price holds above 4,000–4,060.
• Correction warning: due to overbought RSI, a pullback of $50–$120 may occur to “digest” the momentum before continuing the trend. Macro news (Powell, employment data, geopolitical news) may trigger strong volatility.
Risk Management
• Smaller order sizes than usual due to high volatility.
• Don't chase prices past strong resistance; prioritize buying on signs of a successful retest.
The uptrend is still intact; a reasonable strategy is to buy with the trend on corrections or buy breakout confirmations. However, overbought RSI and macro/geopolitical news risks could cause significant pullbacks, so prioritize risk management and tight SL.
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 4242 - 4240⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4246
→Take Profit 1 4234
↨
→Take Profit 2 4228
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 4145 - 4147⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 4141
→Take Profit 1 4153
↨
→Take Profit 2 4159
GOLD Analysis📊 Pattern Overview
The chart shows a Bearish Harmonic Pattern – likely a Bearish Gartley / Bat completion near the top zone.
You’ve marked the key structure points X–A–B–C–D, and the final leg D has completed near a precise Fibonacci confluence, indicating potential reversal.
🔍 Momentum & Confirmation
Expect bearish divergence on RSI/MACD near point D.
Watch for reversal candles — like bearish engulfing or shooting star — for entry confirmation.
A break and retest below the $4,210 line adds conviction for a short setup.
✅ Summary
Parameter Observation
Pattern Bearish Harmonic (Gartley/Bat)
Current Bias Bearish Reversal Likely
Reversal Zone $4,210–$4,225
Confirmation Line $4,210 (as labeled)
Targets $4,170 → $4,110 → $4,060
Stop-loss Above $4,235 (swing high)
Conclusion
Gold’s 1H chart is signaling a potential reversal from harmonic completion.
Only if the price closes below $4,210 with momentum confirmation, we can expect a correction toward $4,100–$4,060 levels.
Until then, the structure remains in a potential reversal zone, not yet active.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational and technical research purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always confirm trade entries using volume, price action, and your personal risk parameters.
XAUUSD: Unstoppable Surge - Is Capital Leaving Bitcoin for Gold?XAUUSD: Unstoppable Surge - Is Capital Leaving Bitcoin for Gold?
Hello traders community,
XAUUSD (Gold) is showcasing extraordinary strength, continuously breaking records and reaching new heights. The upward momentum seems to have no end, despite technical indicators entering the "overbought" zone. While Gold shines, the Crypto market is witnessing selling pressure, indicating a clear shift of safe-haven capital.
This analysis will delve into the factors driving the market and outline a detailed trading strategy for this tidal wave.
📰 Macro Analysis & Capital Flow
The market is being driven by a very clear narrative: Capital is seeking the ultimate safe haven.
Gold Ascends, Bitcoin Challenges: The contrasting movements between the two assets considered "digital gold" and "physical gold" are the most notable highlights. While XAUUSD continuously peaks, Bitcoin has plummeted sharply after hitting a historical high, currently struggling at the critical support level of $107,000. If this level is breached, a new wave of selling could be triggered, further driving capital flow towards Gold.
"Doping Boost" from the US Economy: Gold's strength is bolstered by the weakening USD. Factors such as the US government facing a potential shutdown and particularly the market betting that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates to support the slowing economy have reduced the allure of the greenback and interest-bearing assets.
Global Uncertainty: Not to mention the trade uncertainties and escalating geopolitical tensions. In a risk-laden environment, Gold is always the top choice for institutional investors and central banks to preserve value.
📊 Technical Analysis
The M30 chart shows a perfect and sustainable bullish structure.
Ascending Channel: Price is moving very disciplined within a steep ascending channel. The lower support line of the channel is an extremely important dynamic support area.
Main Support Zone - "Buy Zone": The $4285 - $4287 area is a confluence of the lower channel line and old structural zone. This is an ideal area for Buyers to wait, watching for pullbacks to join the main trend.
Resistance and "Breakout": Price has formed a short-term sideways structure after forming a peak around $4380. A confirmed "breakout" through this area will open up further upside potential, aiming for higher liquidity zones.
Next Target - "Sell Liquidity": The liquidity zone for Sellers and also the expansion target of this bullish wave lies at $4468 - $4470, corresponding to the 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level. This is where profit-taking pressure and sellers may emerge.
🎯 Detailed Trading Plan
The main strategy is "Buy the Dip" - Watch for buying opportunities when price pulls back to key support zones. Selling should only be considered when there is a clear reversal signal at strong resistance areas.
Scenario 1: Buy the Trend (Priority) 📈
Entry Zone: $4285 - $4287.
Stop Loss: $4280.
Take Profit: $4310 - $4355 - $4377 - $4400.
Scenario 2: Sell the Rally (High Risk) 📉
Entry Zone: Watch for selling at the liquidity zone above $4468 - $4470.
Stop Loss: $4476.
Take Profit: $4453 - $4423 - $4410 - $4388.
Summary
Gold's rally is supported by both technical factors and solid macro narratives. Although prices are in the overbought zone, the saying "never fight a strong trend" is entirely accurate at this moment. Minor pullbacks, potentially to the EMA or lower channel line, should be seen as opportunities to increase Buy positions.
Trade with discipline and manage your capital tightly. Wishing everyone a successful trading day!
Follow me for the earliest strategies
Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy for next week✅ Recently, gold has repeatedly shown sharp one-sided moves, with several swings exceeding $80 in both directions this week, forming typical V-shaped reversals. Friday’s rapid decline reflected heavy short-term profit-taking at the highs, signaling that the market has entered a strong corrective consolidation phase.
✅ 4-Hour Chart:
After peaking at 4379.52, gold pulled back sharply and is now trading below the Bollinger mid-band, stabilizing around 4230–4250.
🔹Moving Averages: MA5 and MA10 have formed a bearish crossover, and MA20 has begun to turn down, showing short-term weakness; MA60 and MA120 remain upward-sloping, indicating that the medium- to long-term structure is still bullish.
🔹Bollinger Bands: Upper band near 4364, middle at 4237, lower at 4111. Price is oscillating below the mid-band; failure to reclaim it could lead to a test of the 4110–4150 zone.
Overall, gold is in a high-level correction phase dominated by short sellers. Unless it can hold above 4237, further testing of 4180–4150 remains likely.
✅ 1-Hour Chart:
After retreating from the 4379.52 high to a 4186.62 low, gold saw a weak rebound capped near 4240, forming a classic double-top around 4379. The short-term trend has turned bearish, and the 4280 region now acts as key resistance.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 4275–4280 / 4300
🟢 Support Levels: 4180–4160 / 4090
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If the price rebounds to 4275–4280 and faces resistance, consider light short positions with targets at 4180–4160, stop loss above 4300.
🔰 If the price dips to around 4175–4180 and stabilizes, consider cautious long entries with targets at 4250–4270, stop loss below 4160.
📊 Summary:
Gold’s short-term trend remains weak, representing a technical correction after a strong rally. As long as 4160–4180 support holds, the medium-term bullish structure remains intact. Failure to break above 4280–4300 will keep the market in a weak consolidation phase, with secondary support around 4110–4090.
GOLD (XAUUSD): The Next Resistances
Here are the next potentially significant resistances on Gold to focus on.
Resistance 1: 4397 - 4403 area
Resistance 2: 4447 - 4453 area
Resistance 3: 4487 - 4503 area
Consider the underlined horizontal and vertical supports
for potential buying after pullbacks.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Gold Weekly Review — Historic Volatility & Next Week’s Key LevelThis week, gold experienced a historic level of volatility, a truly remarkable movement that left many traders astonished.
During the session, prices tested the 4200–4180 support zone for the first time. The nearly $200 decline effectively released the heavy selling pressure that had been building up in recent days, while also creating new opportunities for bullish entries.
As expected, once prices entered the support region, they rebounded strongly, closing above 4250 with a recovery of nearly $70 (all of which I had clearly indicated in advance).
From the 30-minute chart, the candlestick structure still suggests further upside potential. However, given the weekend uncertainty, any unexpected bearish news could trigger a pullback when markets reopen on Monday.
If no major negative developments occur, bullish momentum may continue to drive gold higher. Resistance is likely to be concentrated around the 4280–4300 zone — once price enters this region, both short-term buyers and trapped long positions may start adjusting their holdings, which could increase the likelihood of a short-term correction.
On the 4-hour chart, this nearly $500 rally has just completed its first test of the MA30 support. The MA5 (near 4270) currently acts as the key resistance, followed by MA10 (around 4292).
If during consolidation, the price can hold above MA20 (around 4246), it will likely attract renewed buying interest, potentially driving prices back toward 4380 or even higher.
Conversely, if prices remain under pressure and fail to stay above the MA20, attention should shift to the MA30 support. A break below this level could open the way to a test of the MA60(near 4100).
Therefore, for next week’s trading, these levels will be our key focus points.
As I mentioned earlier this week, the medium-term long positions have been closed, and we will wait for new opportunities to emerge. If the market drops toward 4100 or even lower, I will consider re-entering long positions from those lower levels.
A friendly reminder — always align your trading strategy with your own risk tolerance and financial situation. Medium-term setups require patience and strong risk-bearing capacity. If your current condition doesn’t allow for that, please avoid blind following to prevent unnecessary losses.
Lastly, note that gold still has two unfilled gaps around 4019–4024 and 3887–3898. If the trend turns bearish, these gaps may present potential trading opportunities.
That’s all for today.
We’ll discuss specific intraday trading opportunities when the market opens.
If you have any questions or need guidance, feel free to leave me a message.
GOLD/XAUUSD Long Trade Risking 1% to make 2.23%TVC:GOLD / OANDA:XAUUSD Long Trade
Entry: 4259 - 4266
TP: 4354
This is good trade.
Don't overload your risk like Greedy gambler!!!
Be Disciplined Trader, risk what you can afford.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: Trading is risky, only idea, not advice.
GOLD: Next Move Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 4,315.29 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 4,350.59.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Will Gold buys continue for this week? TVC:GOLD price has dropped to $4 180 support level then looks like it might be going for a rest for the $4290. But question is will the $4056 level hold for bulls or will it break that level? What are your predictions for Gold guys? lemme know on the comment session.
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for October 20Gold Technical Analysis
Daily Resistance: 4380, Support: 4100
4-Hour Resistance: 4314, Support: 4180
1-Hour Resistance: 4275, Support: 4220
Last Friday, gold prices retreated after hitting $4380, dropping nearly $200 intraday to a low of around $4186.
The decline stems from both the previous excessive price increase and the strengthening US dollar and tariff policy changes. Regardless, this significant decline in gold prices is bound to raise market concerns about future trends.
From the weekly chart, despite a sharp rise, the market retreated after a surge. Friday's daily chart nearly reversed Thursday's gains.
The 4-hour MACD indicator formed a downward death cross, suggesting that short-term market volatility is at least inevitable.
What is certain is that the bull market in gold's major cycle has not ended. This so-called major cycle is measured on an annual basis, meaning next year's average price will undoubtedly be higher than this year's. As for whether the market will continue to fall this week, this possibility cannot be ruled out. After this week's rebound, if it fails to hold above 4300, there is still a chance that it will test the 4200 or even 4100 levels below.
For intraday trading, sell high and buy low. The market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate.
Selling range:
SELL: near 4275
SELL: near 4315
BUY: near 4220
BUY: near 4180
More analysis👉
Gold: Oscillated - Plummeted - ReboundedFrom an intraday trend perspective, gold surged to near 4379 – 4380 in the early hours of the morning , the morning session saw gold oscillate between 4350 and 4370. It then experienced a sharp drop, falling to around 4280 at one point, before rebounding again.
Overall, after hitting a new all-time high, gold traded in a high-level range during the day due to technical correction needs and complex market sentiment.
For the short term, focus should be on the support zone around 4280 – 4300. If it breaks below 4280, further downside may follow. On the upside, the key resistance level to watch is 4380; a strong break above this level is expected to push gold to 4395 – 4410 during the day.
Buy 4320 - 4330
TP 4350 - 4360 - 4370
SL 4300
Daily-updated accurate signals are at your disposal. If you run into any problems while trading, these signals serve as a reliable reference—don’t hesitate to use them! I truly hope they bring you significant assistance
Gold's Historic Rally: Why It HappenedGold approaches $4,500 per ounce for the first time in history. Up more than 50% in less than a year. Everyone's asking the same question: Is this a historic breakout, or the setup for a massive crash?
The answer requires looking at three things: what brought us here, where we are technically, and what could go wrong.
PART 1: THE MACRO STORY
Gold doesn't just rally because people are "scared." It rallies because of structural shifts in how the world's largest institutions view money, risk, and trust.
Central Banks Are Buying Gold at Record Pace
Here's a number that should get your attention: Central banks bought 1,045 tons of gold in 2024. That's the second-highest annual total on record.
In 2025, the buying hasn't slowed down. Poland alone has accumulated 67 tons year-to-date. Turkey, India, Kazakhstan, and others are following suit.
But here's what's really happening: This isn't about inflation hedging. If it were, Western central banks (US, Europe) would be buying too. They're not. Instead, emerging market central banks are diversifying away from the dollar.
Why? Because they watched what happened in 2022 when the US froze Russian reserves. When you hold dollar-denominated assets, they can be weaponized. Gold can't be sanctioned. Gold can't be frozen.
Central banks don't panic sell on a 5% dip. When they buy, they hold. This creates a structural price floor. Every pullback gets accumulated.
What this means: Central bank buying is the foundation of this rally, not a temporary catalyst.
The Federal Reserve is Cutting Interest Rates
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a level of certainty that the Fed would cut rates in October 2025, with markets pricing in another cut in December this year.
When interest rates fall, something important happens to gold: its "opportunity cost" decreases.
Here's the simple version: Gold pays no interest. So when bonds also pay almost nothing (after inflation), holding gold looks pretty reasonable. But when real yields are high, bonds look better and gold looks worse.
Right now, the market is pricing in lower real yields ahead. That's bullish for gold. If the Fed doesn't cut as much as the market expects, that changes everything.
What this means: Rate cuts fuel the rally.
Geopolitical Instability & Currency Debasement
Global tensions remain elevated: Middle East instability, US-China friction, and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. But that's not the real driver here.
The real driver is the loss of faith in government money.
Gold is at an all-time high, not just in US dollars. It's also hitting all-time highs in euros, yen, and yuan. This isn't a dollar story. This is a global reassessment of what "money" actually means.
Meanwhile, the US national debt is over $35 trillion. Debt-to-GDP is at World War II levels. Other countries (Japan, Europe) are in similar situations, printing money and running massive deficits.
When governments print excessively, investors need a hedge. Gold can't be printed.
What this means: As long as deficits remain high and geopolitical chaos persists, gold has structural demand that goes beyond cycles.
The Bottom Line
Three powerful forces are all pushing in the same direction:
Central banks structurally accumulating gold (de-dollarization)
The Fed cutting rates (lower real yields = gold support)
Global monetary instability (currency debasement = safe-haven bid)
This combination hasn't existed in most traders' lifetimes. That's why this rally feels different. And why it's lasted this long.















