Gold Bullish Butterfly Forming – Reversal Ahead?As I expected in the previous idea , Gold started declining from the Resistance zone($4,192 – $4,137) and has now reached the Support zone($4,004 – $3,895) — full target achieved .
At the moment, Gold is moving within that Support zone($4,004 – $3,895) and Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ) .
Looking at the 1-hour time frame , we can spot a Bullish Butterfly Harmonic Pattern forming, which is likely to complete right in that PRZ .
I expect that in the coming hours, once Gold enters the PRZ , it could rise at least up to around $4,057(First Target) .
Second Target: $4,132
Stop Loss(SL): $3,889(Worst)
Please respect each other's ideas and express them politely if you agree or disagree.
Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
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Trade ideas
XAUUSD – Bearish Pressure After Historical HighsGold prices continue to experience significant downward pressure as profit-taking surges after a strong rally. From the historical peak of nearly 4,400 USD/ounce, gold has lost nearly 12 million VND per tael , and is at risk of falling further if the 4,000 USD/ounce level cannot hold.
On the H4 chart, XAUUSD is forming a bearish trend with a clear price structure. Gold is facing a downward trendline , and each recovery from the lows encounters strong selling pressure . Currently, the price is hovering around 3,935 USD, near the support zone at 3,990 USD, and could drop further to 3,750 USD if this level fails to hold.
Key factors affecting the price:
USD recovery: The strengthening of the US dollar and rising US Treasury yields have reduced gold's appeal, as it does not yield interest.
Increased risk appetite: Progress in US-China trade talks is drawing funds towards equities and industrial commodities.
Trading Strategy: Sell gold around 4,000 USD, with a target of 3,750 USD, and stop loss above 4,050 USD.
Conclusion: XAUUSD remains in a mild bearish trend, with further downside potential if the 4,000 USD level is broken.
GOLD Short-Term Pullback 🔹 COT (Commitment of Traders)
(Last update: September 23, 2025 – data not refreshed due to the CFTC shutdown)
Gold (COMEX)
Non-commercial longs: 332,808 (+6,030)
Non-commercial shorts: 66,059 (+5,691)
→ The latest available data (outdated) showed an increase in both positions, with a stronger rise on the long side — indicating institutional accumulation in late September ahead of the October rally.
Although outdated, the COT report still reflects a mildly bullish structure, but no longer captures the current market dynamics after recent volatility.
🔹 FX Sentiment (Retail Positioning)
58% long / 42% short
📌 Retail traders remain moderately long on gold. This supports a short-term contrarian bearish bias, aligning with the ongoing corrective move in price.
🔹 Seasonality
Historically, October and November tend to be statistically bullish months for gold, with average gains between +2% and +4% over 10–20-year periods.
📌 Seasonal conclusion: the context remains bullish on a seasonal basis, with potential for recovery once the current correction stabilizes.
🔹 Price Action
After the strong bullish impulse that pushed XAU/USD into the 4,350–4,400 area, price entered a phase of consolidation/distribution.
Current structure shows:
Key resistance: 4,250–4,300
Main demand zone: 3,950–3,900
RSI remains neutral but continues to lose momentum, consistent with a possible minor bearish leg before a new bullish wave.
🎯 Main Scenario:
Expecting a continuation of the corrective phase toward 3,950–3,900, aligning with the daily demand area and a likely institutional reaccumulation zone.
From there, a potential bullish resumption could emerge within November’s seasonal strength.
⚙️ Invalidation: daily close below 3,850, which would compromise the medium-term bullish structure.
Gold Likely to Rise FurtherPEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD is demonstrating a well-structured movement within an ascending channel, where each price bounce is well-controlled, and every retracement follows a consistent pattern. The strength of the buyers is becoming increasingly evident, with technical dynamics becoming more organized and fluid.
After breaking through a key resistance level, the price is now retesting this level. If this level holds as solid support, the market is likely to continue its bullish momentum towards 4,500, which serves as the natural target aligned with the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
As long as the price remains above this support level, the upward trend will continue. However, if the price fails to hold and drops below this level, the trend structure will be at risk, and the likelihood of a technical correction towards the lower boundary of the channel will increase.
In this well-organized market condition, consistency and discipline in analysis are crucial. Carefully identify key points, wait for strong confirmation, and allow the trend to move in the predetermined direction.
Gold price accumulation - sideways range⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week slightly lower but holds above Friday’s low during the Asian session. Easing US-China trade tensions lift risk appetite and weigh on the safe-haven metal, as reflected in stronger global equities. Still, dovish Fed expectations and a softer US Dollar help limit further losses.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
The US and ASEAN weekend tariff policy has a negative impact on gold prices, mainly accumulating buying power waiting for interest rate cuts.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 4236 - 4238 SL 4243
TP1: $4220
TP2: $4200
TP3: $4185
🔥BUY GOLD zone: 3987 - 3985 SL 3980
TP1: $3998
TP2: $4010
TP3: $4030
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
( Gold Protocol ) Bearish Reversal Detected
Status: Active Reversal Protocol
🆚Symbol: Gold
Session: London–New York Overlap (Smart Exit Window)
Bearish Reversal 4062
☄️ Volume Surge Confirmed — Sellers dominate exhausted highs
☄️ Session Aligned — Smart money exit window open
☄️ Cluster Shield Active — Supply imbalance verified
☄️ Delta Shift Negative — Buyers trapped above
☄️ POC Retest Completed — Liquidity absorbed at resistance
☄️ Structure Break Pending — Bearish bias confirmed
🚀 Logic: This is engineered reversal, not prediction.
🚀 Objective: Controlled execution with minimal drawdown.
Goal: Controlled Both Sides with minimal drawdown
★★★★★ (Smart Money Aligned)
XAUUSD- Is the Correction Really Over?Yesterday, after revisiting the 4,000 support zone as expected and explained in my previous analysis, Gold bounced strongly and tested the area above 4,100.
That rally delivered around 800 pips profit on my long trade, and now the market is showing a mild pullback, consolidating around 4,085.
The key question now:
Is the overall correction over, or is there still more to unfold?
From a technical perspective, as long as 4,000 remains intact, Gold retains its bullish potential toward the 4,200 resistance zone.
However, I prefer to stay patient at the moment — being flat at the time of writing — and will wait for a potential dip toward 4,050 or slightly below.
If the price shows a positive reaction in that area, I’ll consider re-entering long positions.
Upside targets:
• First: 4,150
• Second: 4,200
Keeping a positive risk-reward balance remains the main priority.
XAU/USD (GOLD) Inverse Head & Shoulder Pattern Bullish Analysis📈 #XAUUSD (Gold) Technical Update 💰✨
Bullish momentum building on the 1H timeframe with an Inverse Head & Shoulders breakout above the 4115 neckline! 🚀
🎯Breakout Level: 4115
💪Pattern: Inverse H&S — bullish continuation
Technical Targets:
TP1, 4156
TP2, 4202
TP3, 4375
As long as price holds above 4115, bias remains bullish 🟢
Keep an eye on volume confirmation and potential retest zones before the next leg up! 🔍
#Gold #XAUUSD #Forex #TechnicalAnalysis #PriceAction #Trading
GOLD - Stop Trading Gold For NowGOLD - Stop Trading Gold For Now
For now, stay away from gold. I just see that something strange is happening and the reason is just some manipulation and nothing more.
Below is what I am reading, but it doesn't make sense:
💬A thaw in US-China trade relations has kind of pulled the rug out from under the gold price due to a drop in safe-haven buying flows,"
I would suggest to stay away from gold for a while and see what happens first.
⚠️It could be a bull trap and it could fall lower or it could be a bear trap and it could rise aggressively again. It's all happening for no apparent reason.
For the time being gold is positioned like it can drop more but I don't believe it too much
At the moment we have no confirmation on how it could take shape but it is back around a strong area and the psychological price is 3900 - 4000.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Hellena | GOLD (4H): LONG to 61.8% Fibo of 4265.Dear colleagues, in the new forecast the idea remains the same - the upward momentum (12345) is not yet complete.
At the moment I see the end of the formation of the corrective wave “4” at the level of 4000, as stated earlier, and the beginning of the upward movement in wave “5”.
I do not want to set distant targets, because their achievement may take time, so let's start small - the nearest target is the resistance area at 4265 - the area beyond the 61.8% level of wave “4”. I think that this is the nearest target that we should expect.
Fundamental context
Earlier this week, gold experienced a sharp pull-back after its recent record highs. Nothing to panic about — it’s simply a technical correction: investors are taking profits after a rapid and extended rally. Key drivers like central bank buying and lower rate expectations remain intact, so the broader bullish story is still alive. In fact, this brief dip may offer a better entry point before the next leg up.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
GOLD at Cut n reverse region? What's next??#GOLD... market perfectly place a low in region.
That is our most important region and our key region for next move.
Keep close and if market holds then buying expected otherwise not at all.
I repeat it again that is full n final region..
NOTE: we will go for cut n reverse below region on confirmation.
Good luck
Trade wisley
Hellena | GOLD (4H): SHORT to support area of 4040.Gold is actively rising and I believe that before the impulse ends we should see the correction that many are expecting.
As of today, I see the completion of the higher order wave “3” and the approaching start of the correction in wave “4”. It makes no sense to put any distant plans in the correction and I think that the support area of 4040 looks quite attractive.
Fundamental context
Gold continues its rally and recently broke new highs, fueled by expectations of U.S. rate cuts, global uncertainty, and safe-haven demand. Central banks are still actively increasing their gold reserves — this structural demand adds support even if price pullbacks occur.
Supply growth is modest — mining output is constrained, and recycling of gold is not enough, which limits the downward pressure on prices.
Given this backdrop, the chance of a correction rises as momentum stretches — but the underlying fundamentals remain favorable for further upside once the correction completes.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
GOLD Finally Made Reversal Pattern , Short Setup To Get 400 PipsHere is my 4H Chart On GOLD , And finally the chart made a reversal pattern The price creating a very clear reversal pattern ( double top) and the price made a very good bearish price action now from good res area so we can enter a sell trade after the price back to retest the neckline to can use a small stop loss and targeting 200 to 400 pips , this is a good bearish movement after this massive movement to upside without any correction , so we will sell this pair for the next weeks .
Gold Consolidates Before Next MoveGold Consolidates Before Next Move
Gold is currently showing a short-term correction after reaching the $4,380 area. The price has pulled back as expected near $4180, and remains above this strong key support area.
From the current data we have, the price could rise from the market price where it is now or it could move a little lower before a recovery could occur towards the next targets at $4,250, $4,300, and $4,350.
A break above $4,380 would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend.
⚠️ However, if the price of gold falls below $4,180, then this could be caused by a strong sell-off that may not be related to normal movements. The decline could be caused by profit-taking by investors who are holding the price up.
⚠️ So, never trade without a stop loss. The market is positioned only for long trades and this carries a high risk. It is not a normal way for the price to develop.
If a downward wave occurs, it will occur without any pattern or confirmation, so be prepared for it at any time.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
Gold/Copper Signaling Recession & Market Super bubble!We're continuing to see extreme signals from Gold, and that should raise concerns.
Earlier, I highlighted the Gold/Oil ratio — now, I want to draw your attention to the Gold/Copper ratio:
🔗
Historically, such extreme readings in the Gold/Copper ratio have consistently preceded recessions. The only exception? A period of economic stagnation and sideways markets — not exactly a bullish outcome. See the chart from 2014 to 2016
🔗 www.tradingview.com
Quick recap:
Gold = Fear + Inflation hedge
Copper = Economic strength + Inflation signal
Oil = Similar to Copper; reflects growth and inflation expectations
These divergences aren't random — they’re warning signs of a recession & market Super Bubble that's about to POP!
These are not random fluctuations of prices. You can choose to view them as such. I get it. But from a macroeconomic perspective, this is bad JUJU!
Capitalism without failure is like religion without hell! Remember that!
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GOLDThe era of cheap gold ends
From 1919 to 2015, the price of gold due to Gold Fixing. The price was set by London Gold Market Fixing Limited. On March 20, 2015 fixing ceased to be installed according to the old methodology and was replaced by electronic auctions LBMA Gold Price.
Initially, the "golden five" consisted of the following companies
1.N M Rothschild & Sons
2.Mocatta & Goldsmid
3.Pixley & Abell
4.Samuel Montagu & Co
5.Sharps Wilkins
What now?
Thirteen market participants are accredited to participate in LBMA Gold Price trading:
Bank of China
Bank of Communications
China Construction Bank
Goldman Sachs International
HSBC Bank USA NA
ICBC Standard Bank
JPMorgan Chase
Morgan Stanley
Société Générale
Standard Chartered
The Bank of Nova Scotia - ScotiaMocatta
The Toronto Dominion Bank
UBS
These banks all belong to the same families.
Most of the gold has already been bought and there is no point in keeping it at this level.
In a period of instability, investors will seek refuge for their assets. And gold will not be a bad refuge for long term.
WE WILL BE GOLD BEFORE THE PORN, WHILE GOLDEN IDEOLOGISTS WILL EXIST . Rothschild's
Gold Breakdown Alert! Bears Aiming $3980 NextGold is currently showing a descending triangle / bearish channel pattern on the 15-minute chart. After testing the upper trendline resistance around 4113–4115, price has started to reject, indicating potential downward pressure.
The trendlines show clear lower highs and lower lows, confirming a short-term bearish structure. Volume is also decreasing on upward moves, suggesting weakening buying momentum.
📉 Trade Setup (Scalping / Intraday)
Signal: 🔻 SELL XAU/USD below 4105
Entry Zone: 4105 – 4110
Target 1: 4050
Target 2: 3980
Stop Loss: 4135
Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2
⚙️ Technical Indicators
Trendline Resistance: 4115
Support Zone: 4050 / 3980
Momentum: Bearish bias
Structure: Lower highs forming under descending resistance
💬 Analyst View
Gold may continue its short-term correction phase if it fails to hold above the 4110 resistance zone. A breakout below 4100 could trigger a fresh wave of selling pressure targeting the 4050 area initially.
If bulls reclaim 4135, this analysis becomes invalid and could shift bias to neutral.
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Interesting open on the markets with gaps all over the place. Gold managed to break below on the open then continuing to complete not only the red box targets but our Algo target as well. We would have liked higher to get in on this move, ideally we wanted 4055 during the NY Session but it wasn't to be. The move commenced and those that got in managed to bag themselves a decent trade short.
For now, due to another stretch on buyers, we would like to see where we close today. We have circled the potential play with a swing high looking like it will attempt the 4030 level while the red box below will need to break in order to continue to our long awaited target below.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold prices begin to recover, big fluctuations⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) drops below $4,100 in Wednesday’s Asian session, extending its sharpest selloff in over a decade as traders lock in profits after a nine-week record-breaking rally. Easing US-China trade tensions ahead of the November 1 tariff deadline further dampen safe-haven demand.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Currently, the gold price fluctuates greatly and moves quickly. There are signs of recovery and retreat to the resistance zone around 4235.
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 4235 - 4237 SL 4242
TP1: $4222
TP2: $4200
TP3: $4170
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable SELL order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
GOLD ANALYSIS (1 W)To understand the psychology in Gold,
I use only two tools:
Fibonacci retracement,
Trend-based Fibonacci extension.
We will use these two tools to measure the weekly cycles.
Since November 2022, Gold has been forming a pattern that can only be explained by Fibonacci principles.
Using Fibonacci retracement for each swing high and low, you'll realize that each retracement equals around 50%.
In only one example, we see that a higher low reaches the 61.8% level, which is also acceptable.
After these retracements, the next leg of the impulsive move always reaches around the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
According to these two basic technical factors, Gold should first reach around $3,800, and then aim for the $6,600 level during the next impulsive leg in the coming years.
I’m not even going to list all the reasons why Gold tends to go up over time.
Most people reading this analysis are already aware of the fundamentals behind Gold’s long-term bullish nature.
Thanks for reading.
XAUUSD | Correction of the Corrective ImpulseThe Market Flow | Oct 26, 2025
Technical Overview
Monthly/Weekly:
• Both remain in structural expansion phases following a strong higher-timeframe impulse.
• Bias continues long above prior pivots, maintaining bullish structure despite current mid-term correction.
Daily:
• Broke the previous valley (daily pivot) and reached the daily breakout zone at 4040.20 .
• This defines the ongoing corrective impulse against the dominant bullish trend.
• Price is attempting to correct that impulse, forming a counter-correction structure beneath resistance.
H4/H1:
• Local wave structure is consolidating after a multi-leg retracement.
• The corrective move remains contained between the H4 pivot 4060.68 and EXP 4129.14 .
• The green EXP level at 4129.14 represents a clean, untested M15 breakdown —the active long trigger .
• Targets align with H1 Fibonacci 138.2–161.8% and the correction 61.8% retracement zone near 4204–4246 .
• Momentum fading below the EXP would imply continuation within the corrective leg.
Trade Structure & Levels
• Bias: Long above 4060.68
• Trigger = Break and sustained hold above 4129.14 (M15 EXP)
• Primary Invalidation = 4060.68 (H4 pivot)
• Secondary Invalidation = 4054.68 (H1 pivot)
• Path → 4129 → 4204 → 4239 → 4246
• Phase: Counter-corrective advance within a higher-timeframe expansion
Risk & Event Context
• Low probability structure as it represents a correction of the corrective impulse.
• Watch intraday reactions at the M15 expansion level—failure to confirm beyond it keeps bias neutral.
• Volatility expected around USD macro data.
Conclusion
XAUUSD is attempting a minor counter-correction within a broader corrective phase. The M15 expansion level at 4129.14 is the structural trigger for continuation toward 4204–4246, but the move remains fragile as long as price trades below the daily breakout pivot.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a recommendation. Market conditions and price behavior may change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Gold next week: Key S/R Levels and Outlook for Traders🔥 GOLD WEEKLY SNAPSHOT — BY PROJECTSYNDICATE
🏆 High/Close: $4,379 → ~$4,252 — higher close vs. last week’s pullback finish.
📈 Trend: Uptrend intact > $4,000; dip buyers continue to control rhythm.
🛡 Supports: $4,180–$4,140 → $4,100–$4,050 → $4,000 must hold.
🚧 Resistances: $4,260 / $4,300 / $4,350 → stretch $4,380–$4,420.
🧭 Bias next week: Buy-the-dip > $4,140–$4,200; momentum regain targets $4,300–$4,380+. Invalidation < $4,050 → risk $4,000/3,980.
🌍 Macro tailwinds:
• Fed: Markets lean to another cut into Oct 28–29; softer real yields buoy gold.
• FX: DXY under pressure = constructive backdrop.
• Flows: ETF interest & CB buying remain supportive on dips.
• Geopolitics: Tariff/trade and regional risks keep safe-haven bids live.
🎯 Street view: Several houses float $5,000/oz by 2026 scenarios on easing policy & reserve diversification narratives
________________________________________
🔝 Key Resistance Zones
• $4,260–$4,280 near-ATH supply / immediate ceiling from close
• $4,300–$4,350 extension target band
• $4,380–$4,420 stretch zone toward prior spike high and measured extensions
🛡 Support Zones
• $4,220–$4,200 first retest band just below close
• $4,180–$4,140
• $4,100–$4,050 deeper pullback shelf; $4,000 remains the big psych
________________________________________
⚖️ Base Case Scenario
Expect shallow pullbacks into $4,220–$4,140 to be bought, followed by rotation back into the $4,260–$4,300 resistance stack for an ATH retest.
🚀 Breakout Trigger
A sustained push/acceptance > ~$4,280 unlocks $4,300 → $4,350, with room toward $4,380–$4,420 if momentum persists.
💡 Market Drivers
• Fed cut expectations into late Oct(lower real yields = gold tailwind
• USD softness / DXY sub-100 tone supports metals
• Ongoing central-bank bullion demand; ETF inflows stabilizing
• Geopolitics & trade/tariff headlines keeping safety bids active
🔓 Bull / Bear Trigger Lines
• Bullish above: $4,140–$4,200
• Bearish below: $4,100–$4,050 risk expands under $4,000
🧭 Strategy
Accumulate dips above $4,140–$4,200.
On breakout > $4,280, target $4,300–$4,350+. Maintain tight risk under stepped supports; invalidate momentum below $4,050–$4,000.
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