REVERSAL OR NOT?✅ If Price Breaks Above:
Enter long (buy) on breakout above the upper orange line.
Use the height of the range to project a potential target (as shown by the blue upward arrow).
Stop-loss typically goes below the range (lower orange line).
❌ If Price Breaks Below:
Enter short (sell) on breakout below the lower orange line.
Target = range height projected downward (blue downward arrow).
Stop-loss typically goes above the upper range line.
Wait for strong confirmation (volume, candle close, or momentum) before entering a breakout.
False breakouts are common in tight consolidations, so risk management is key.
GOLDMINICFD trade ideas
A brief discussion on my views on recent gold price trendsLast night, I clearly outlined my outlook for gold. Today, the gold price retreated to the support range of 3635-3620 and then stabilized and rebounded. Our long orders have reaped considerable profits. It is a pity that the limit long order set at 3620 before going to bed failed to be triggered, and I missed out on a bigger profit.
Currently, gold's volatility is relatively low, and it has rebounded again to around 3645, which aligns with my view that gold will remain in a range-bound pattern in the short term. Our trading strategy is still highly referenceable. If gold falls back to test the lower support again in the short term, we can still consider going long again. If gold slowly fluctuates upward in the European session, the first thing to pay attention to is whether it can effectively break through 3655. Once it effectively breaks through, gold may retest the short-term resistance of 3665-3680.
Xauusd 📌 Possible Scenarios
🟢 Bullish Scenario (favored)
If 3580 support holds, price likely retests 3600–3615.
Break & H4 close above 3617 → opens road to 3650–3670.
Swing extension possible to 3720.
🔴 Bearish Scenario (short-term correction)
Rejection at 3600–3615 could trigger pullback.
Targets: 3570, then 3545.
If 3490 breaks → deeper correction toward 3420–3350.
XAUUSD: Time To Fall!?Gold appears to be respecting a falling trend line on a 4H time frame.
A strong bearish pattern seems to be emerging. The price has formed a cup and handle pattern and is currently testing its neckline.
The next confirmation for a bearish trend is to watch for a breakout. A 4-hour candle closing below the 3620 level would validate the breakout.
Subsequently, a bearish reversal could be anticipated, potentially leading towards the next support level.
XAU/USD. Wyckoff.30 min timeframe used for this analysis to determine short term cycles. (short summary below).
GOLD’s unexpected rally put into Wyckoff.
After the slight pullback marked (RED ARROW) Gold entered accumulation phase followed by an aggressive mark up. Then a short distribution.
We are currently in the start of mark down phase.
Selloff should continue until price meets with 200SMA, at that point sellers are exhausted and anticipation for next accumulation phase should begin.
Overall XAU maintains its bullish standpoint and is correcting normally shaking out short term sellers and profit takers.
Next mark up should begin when movement rebounds 200SMA (volume conformed).
(short summary);
•Long position at confirmation
•Stop order under 200SMA
•Resistance 3,672
Mark up phase will test 3,672 and breakout is confirmation of up trend continuation and new highs. Ride the trend and TAKE PROFITS when movement shows exhaustion and reversal signals.
Gold Extends Rally as Fed Rate-Cut Bets Intensify📊 Market Overview
• Spot gold is trading around $3,583–3,588/oz, close to its all-time high near $3,600.
• Main driver: Weak U.S. August jobs data boosted expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts this month.
• A weaker USD and strong central bank purchases continue to support demand.
• Short-term outlook remains bullish, though overbought signals point to possible technical pullbacks.
📉 Technical Analysis
• Key Resistance: $3,600 (psychological), $3,620–3,625 (extended resistance).
• Nearest Support: $3,574 (Fibo 0.236), $3,560–3,580 zone.
• EMA: Price stays above EMA21 → bullish trend intact.
• Candlesticks / Momentum: Bullish flag structure; RSI >80 (overbought), suggesting possible pullback.
📌 Outlook
Gold may continue its upward momentum if Fed signals dovish policy and USD weakens further.
However, a technical correction is likely if profit-taking intensifies around $3,600–3,625.
💡 Suggested Trading Strategy
SELL XAU/USD: $3,622 – $3,625
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
❌ SL: 3628
BUY XAU/USD: $3,577 – $3,580
🎯 TP: 40/80/200 pips
❌ SL: 3574
Turning the Tables: Bears’ Guide to Profit in GoldDriven by the dual influence of interest rate cut expectations and the job market, gold prices continue to rise and reach new highs. This is entirely a game played by big money at this stage. Buying sentiment in the gold market is currently so high that most of the time, there's no opportunity to even enter a long position. Therefore, after considering the possible phenomenon of "buying expectations and selling facts", while controlling risks, I carefully tried to short gold. Although I suffered losses frequently, I also made a good profit overall because I successfully captured the volatility.
Currently, gold continues to rise and has reached a high of around 3637. In fact, according to its wave pattern, gold may experience a pullback at any time. This is why I insist on shorting gold today.
The 1st wave: Gold rose from around 3405 to around 3508, a 3.1% increase with a fluctuation of $105.
The 2nd wave: Gold rose from around 3470 to around 3578, a 3.16% increase with a fluctuation of $108.
The current wave: Gold rose from around 3512 to its target of around 3637, a 3.5% increase with a fluctuation of $124.
According to the trend of price fluctuations, gold has reached and, to a certain extent, exceeded the previous two waves, so a pullback is possible at any time.
Furthermore, given that intraday fluctuations have been between $30 and $50 in recent days, and the intraday fluctuation of gold from around 3580 to around 3637 reached $57, a short-term pullback is highly likely.
However, because the bullish momentum of gold is strong, I will continue to try to short gold before a clear peak signal appears, but I may appropriately lower my expectations for gold's pullback, that is, appropriately lower my expectations for profit margins. My current short position entry prices are: 3612, 3621 and 3636. Basically, I add positions every time the fluctuation is 100-150pips. I currently hope that gold can retreat to the area around 3610-3600.
How to correctly grasp the gold trading opportunities?Yesterday, the technical side of gold rose first and then fell. The overall gold price continued to rise strongly in the Asian and European sessions, and finally fell back in the U.S. session and fell into repeated fluctuations, and finally closed near 3628. The daily K-line closed at a high and then fell back and fluctuated in the middle. Yesterday, I kept notifying everyone that the technical side needed to retrace and not to be overly bullish on gold. Now everything is perfectly in line with expectations. Friends who follow me can see it. Today we continue to treat it with the idea of going long on retracements. After all, I believe that the trend has not reversed, and going long on retracements is still the general trend. Today, we will first focus on the short-term support at 3620-3610 below, and continue to go long if it retraces and does not break. If you encounter troubles in your current gold operations and want to make your investment journey more stable and avoid detours, please feel free to communicate with us at any time!
From the 4-hour level, today's short-term support for gold will focus on the 3620-3610 area, and the 3600 mark is the core dividing line between the strength of the bulls. If it retraces and stabilizes above this position during the day, the overall bullish thinking will remain unchanged. The main tone is still to go long on the retracement. At the daily level, as long as gold stabilizes above 3600, the low-long thinking will be sustainable. As for the counter-trend short positions, specific reminders will be given according to the pressure on the market at high levels. Brothers just need to pay attention to the bottom in time.
Gold operation strategy: Go long on gold when it retraces to around 3620-3610, target 3650-3660, and continue to hold if it breaks through.
Gold Swing Long Idea (4H Chart)Gold continues to trade in a strong uptrend, creating higher highs and higher lows. After a sharp move, price has pulled back into a major demand zone, where buyers previously showed strong interest. This area is now acting as support.
The plan is to go long from this demand zone, with the stop placed just below the zone to protect against invalidation. The target is the recent swing high, which aligns with the next resistance level.
This trade follows the broader trend direction, combining market structure (HH-HL pattern) with demand zone confluence to build a favorable swing setup.
key levels
Buy Entry : 3620
Take profit : 3635
Take profit : 3650
Target : 3670
Stop Loss :3588
Note: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
Gold: Profit-Taking Ahead of NFP, Main Trend Still BullishHello everyone, after a strong rally, gold has seen a short-term pullback. On the daily chart, this looks more like profit-taking near all-time highs rather than a genuine reversal. The broader structure remains intact: price is holding above the Ichimoku cloud, the Kijun is sloping upward, and stacked demand FVGs just beneath price signal a healthy uptrend.
In terms of levels, nearby resistance is at 3,555–3,565. A daily close above could naturally open the path toward 3,600–3,620. On the downside, the key buffer lies at 3,525–3,510 (cluster of FVGs + upper cloud edge). Only if a daily close breaks decisively below 3,510 would a deeper correction toward 3,480–3,450 become significant.
News flow also contributes to the pause: ETF outflows and caution ahead of NFP have capped momentum. Still, with safe-haven demand intact (as labour and PMI data hint at economic risks), I see this more as a “lock profit” phase than a trend change.
NFP Scenarios: If data comes strong (USD/yields ↑), gold may retreat toward 3,525–3,510; losing this zone could extend to 3,480–3,450. Conversely, if data is weak (USD/yields ↓), the chance of breaking 3,565 is high, opening the door to 3,600+.
In short, the major trend remains bullish as long as 3,525–3,510 holds. After NFP, a daily close above 3,565 would confirm trend continuation.
What do you think – will gold break 3,565 straight after NFP, or first retest support before heading higher?
Focus on CPI, beware of unexpected surprisesThe market focuses on CPI data, which is unlikely to fluctuate significantly in the short term. Although it has fallen below the recent support of 3620, buying below is still strong, so don't chase the short position. From the news and other recent data, it can be seen that the weak US employment data has suppressed the economy, forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The current market basically assumes that 25 basis points has become a reality, so the possibility of positive CPI data is relatively high.
If the CPI data is positive for gold, it will first test the resistance level of 3640-3660. If the data triggers a strong rally, gold could potentially reach new highs, aiming for 3690-3700.
However, the previous NFP data was also crucial, but the result was a surprise. Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility of a similar surprise with the CPI data. If the CPI data is bearish for gold, it will first test 3600 below. Once it falls below 3600, it will go to 3580.
The above content is just an analysis of the possible trend of gold, which you can refer to. If the European session retreats again to 3620-3610 without breaking, you can try to go long with a light position, and the ideal target is 3640-3660. If it falls below 3600, SL will be adjusted in time.
GOLD MOVEMENT NEXT WEEK 8-12 SEPTHey traders, due to my candlestick strategy and, i am anticipeting a continuation to the upside for some days and a pullback to a daily resistance for the rest of the week. XAUUSD has reached its all time high last week of 3580 After breaking the Monthly Resistance price will continue and make a pullback before another upward movement. looking for a small pullback to the daily TF before a continuation
Gold Focuses on Target $3,650
Gold Weekly Review: Non-farm Payrolls Boost Gold Prices, Focusing on Target $3,650
The gold market continued its bullish momentum this past week. A brief negative correction on Thursday did not alter the market's tone. Driven by weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll data, gold prices surged to $3,600 in the evening, continuing its recent strong upward trend.
Technically, gold prices have maintained a similar trend this week: rising in the morning, correcting or consolidating in the European session, and then rising again in the evening. Friday's market performance perfectly replicated this pattern. Although the market attempted short positions above $3,550 before the non-farm payrolls release, anticipating a correction in the European session, the pullback in the European session was limited, demonstrating a clear resistance to the downside, which set the stage for a rally in the evening.
Fundamentals and Data Resonate
Friday's US non-farm payroll data, which fell short of market expectations, provided fresh impetus for gold bulls. The data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its accommodative policy, and the pressure on the US dollar created a favorable environment for dollar-denominated gold. The synergistic effect of data and technical analysis ultimately drove gold prices to break through key resistance levels.
Technical Structure Remains Intact
From a technical perspective, gold prices rose $267 this week from $3311 to $3578. The subsequent $67 pullback represented only 25% of this gain. After finding support at the 0.618 golden ratio level near 3511, the price quickly rebounded. This pullback is normal in a strong bull market and further demonstrates the integrity of the trend.
Market Outlook and Trading Strategies
Looking ahead to next week, the market will focus on Thursday's US CPI data, which will be a key factor influencing gold prices. Against a backdrop of relatively calm data, technical analysis will dominate market trends.
The current trend is clear and the structure is stable. Next, focus will be on the pace and position. Technically, after a bullish correction, there is typically two to three trading days of upside potential. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect continued bullish momentum towards the 3650-3700 area next week.
For Monday's trading, focus on the 3574-3575 support level. Once this level stabilizes, continue to position long. Even if negative non-farm payroll data leads to a deep correction, downward movement will be limited. The trend won't be altered by a single piece of data; a decline will actually provide a better entry opportunity.
The market always moves forward amidst fluctuations, and clear thinking, comprehensive planning, and strict risk control are the keys to stable profits in the gold market. In the current clear bullish trend, following the trend is the best option.
Gold moving in a range areaGold moving in a range area where both support and resistance are rejecting the price as per their price zone. now as we can see the price is at a resistance level, so there are much chances to hit support level again. overall in whole, candles are making an bullish flag which will sure make an bullish move on the whole.
GOLD 5-Minute Smart Money Analysis (Bearish Setup)🔸 OB M5 (Order Block) – A supply zone around 3,652–3,654. This is where institutional sellers may re-enter. Price is expected to retrace here before dropping again.
💧 Liquidity Level marked at 3,638.253 – below recent lows. This is where many stop-loss orders are likely placed. Smart money often targets these zones to fuel bigger moves.
⚙️ Trade Setup Idea
🔄 Wait for price to retrace into OB M5 (yellow zone)
🔻 Look for bearish confirmation (e.g., bearish engulfing or market structure shift)
🎯 Target: Liquidity level at 3,638.253
🛑 Stop Loss: Just above the OB (low-risk entry)
✅ Current Bias: Bearish
As long as price stays below the OB zone, we favor shorts. Break above OB invalidates this setup
xauusdPYTH:XAUUSD the chart is on a short-term timeframe (probably 15m or 1h).
A Rising Wedge pattern is drawn, which usually signals a bearish reversal.
After breaking below the wedge, price dropped sharply.
Now, the market has pulled back and is consolidating around 3645–3650.
Three levels are marked on the chart:
Risk free (~3630) → meaning if someone entered a short trade, once price reaches this level, they can move the trade to break-even.
TP1 (~3580) → the first bearish target.
TP2 (~3520–3530) → the second bearish target.
Overall takeaway:
The structure suggests that the bearish scenario is more likely (because of the wedge breakdown).
Right now, price is consolidating near a local resistance area.
If sellers step in again, hitting TP1 and possibly TP2 is on the table.
But if price breaks and holds above 3660–3670, that would invalidate the bearish setup.
September 11th Gold AnalysisSeptember 11th Gold Analysis
Waiting for CPI Data to Break the Deadlock
Market Dynamics
Yesterday's gold market exhibited typical pre-data volatility. Following a series of emotional speculation, bulls and bears reached a stalemate, with gold prices fluctuating between $3,618 and $3,657 throughout the day, ultimately closing slightly higher.
This narrow consolidation pattern reflects the market's conflicting sentiment: on the one hand, expectations of a Fed rate cut and geopolitical risks are supporting gold prices; on the other hand, gold prices are already at historical highs, and further upward momentum requires new catalysts.
Gold has risen over 39% so far this year, an astonishing performance that makes it one of the best-performing asset classes in 2025.
Focus Event: US CPI Data
Today's US August CPI data will serve as a bellwether for the market. Market expectations are for the unadjusted CPI to be 2.9% annualized (previous reading: 2.7%) and 0.3% monthly; the core CPI is expected to be 3.1% annualized and 0.3% monthly.
This data will directly influence the Federal Reserve's decision at its September 17-18 meeting. The market currently places a 100% probability on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed, but the strength of the CPI data will influence the subsequent policy path.
A strong reading could push gold below the $3,600 support level; conversely, a weak reading could see gold prices test or even break through all-time highs.
Technical Analysis
From a technical perspective, gold is currently oscillating at a high level, with a tendency toward sideways trading. On the upside, watch for short-term resistance around 3,655-60, while on the downside, focus on support around 3,625-20.
The performance of the previous two trading days suggests that gold bullish sentiment is waning. A break below the 3,620-25 support level could trigger a short-term counterattack by bears, potentially testing support around 3,605-00, and even a pullback to 3,570.
However, such a deep correction would require support from negative fundamental factors. Tonight's US CPI data and the ECB's interest rate decision could contribute to this situation, but the market's current dominant sentiment remains focused on expectations of a Fed rate cut next week.
Trading Strategies and Risk Management
Prior to the data release, gold prices are likely to remain volatile at high levels. Consider adopting a light-weight strategy of buying low and selling high, and then following the market trend after the data is released.
Long: We recommend a light-weight long position in the 3620-3628 area, with a stop-loss below 3615 and a target of 3650-3660.
Short: We recommend a light-weight short position in the 3630-3640 area, with a stop-loss below 3655 and a target of 3620. If the price falls below the 3620 support level, you can increase your short position and target lower support levels.
The market is volatile, especially on trading days with major data releases, when volatility and uncertainty can increase significantly. Investors should respond flexibly based on real-time market conditions, ensure proper risk management, and make prudent decisions.
Thank you for your attention. I hope my analysis can be helpful to you.