Palantir: Bullish Signals Point to Upside Beyond $180 Current Price: $177.17
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $182.50
- T2 = $186.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $174.50
- S2 = $172.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of seasoned traders and institutional investors. By leveraging the wisdom of crowds, we aim to uncover consensus-driven opportunities that minimize biases and optimize predictive accuracy. In the case of Palantir Technologies, the collective sentiment indicates strong bullish momentum underpinned by both market trends and fundamental catalysts.
**Key Insights:**
Palantir Technologies continues to dominate the government and enterprise analytics space with its scalable AI-powered solutions, driving demand across sectors dealing with complex data. Recent developments in artificial intelligence and defense-related contracts have highlighted the company's indispensable role in modernizing data infrastructure, positioning it as a high-growth stock. Additionally, the increasing need for transparent data platforms in the corporate sector aligns closely with Palantir's core offerings, reinforcing long-term growth potential.
Market volumes also suggest an accumulation phase, indicating that institutional players are increasing their exposure to Palantir. This aligns with technical analysis pointing to the stock potentially breaking resistance levels to establish a new upward trend. With improving fundamentals, a rise in trading volume, and consistent contract wins, Palantir holds strong upside potential in the near term.
**Recent Performance:**
Palantir’s recent price action has seen steady gains, climbing from the mid-$160s to $177.17 in a relatively short period. The stock has shown resilience even during broader market hesitations, validating its strong investor confidence and fundamental backing. The upward trajectory has also been marked by higher intraday highs and closing prices, signaling firm momentum.
**Expert Analysis:**
Technical experts have identified a bullish breakout pattern emerging in Palantir’s price action. Key moving averages such as the 50-day and 200-day lines are moving upward, further confirming the bullish sentiment. RSI levels currently sit in the mid-range, indicating room for further growth without overbought conditions. Analysts foresee continued momentum driven by robust earnings potential and increased demand for Palantir’s AI-enabled solutions across critical sectors like government, healthcare, and logistics.
**News Impact:**
Recent headlines surrounding Palantir’s advancements in AI software and strategic partnership deals within defense and Fortune 500 companies have significantly boosted investor sentiment. Moreover, as geopolitical tensions remain high globally, the company’s intelligence-driven solutions position it as a critical resource for governments, likely paving the way for additional contracts. This news flow continues to validate the stock’s bullish momentum and its broader macroeconomic relevance.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Take a bullish position on Palantir Technologies as both technical indicators and fundamental drivers align to support a continued upward trajectory. With price targets of $182.50 and $186.00, and stop levels carefully placed to mitigate downside risk, Palantir offers an attractive trade setup for growth-focused investors. Strong institutional interest, combined with expanding AI and enterprise markets, makes this stock one to watch in the current market environment.
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PLTR trade ideas
PLTR still up... 167 perhaps?i know i know i know... this stock is riding high to the moon.
flipped this week back to the earnings push. let's see if we get continuation into 167-165. The wick on Friday's (8/15) candle says let's bounce. So watch that.
160 was former resistance. If we get there 1st, we can bounce. Can look for puts back below if that makes your feel safer.
Again and again and again and again...long at 177.17If you want my case for trading PLTR and the chart for the last year isn't enough, consult my last PLTR idea here -
Since then, nothing has changed, in my mind, except there's been a few more profitable trades added to my account thanks to PLTR.
+5.73% in 2 days
+10.06% in 4 days
+9.32% in 3 days
+10.76% in 3 days
etc.
You get the idea and now understand why I keep coming back.
It is still undefeated - no losing trades ever on PLTR. I truly do not expect that to change now. One could argue any idiot could have made money trading PLTR this year. And they aren't wrong. My question back, though, would be "why weren't you?". There are all sorts of reasons people use to not trade PLTR and good for them. I'm fine with that. I will trade it and I expect to make money quickly doing so. That doesn't ALWAYS happen, but it usually does.
I will add tactically if the trade doesn't close quickly and while the plan is to squeeze a little more juice out of this one than most, market conditions will dictate how I close.
It could be a FPC and if it's up some scandalous amount on Monday, maybe even sooner.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
Short PLTR as it's time for a pullbackExtremely High Valuation: Palantir's stock has soared, and it's now trading at over 200 times its forward earnings. Such a high valuation can be hard to sustain, making the stock vulnerable to a correction.
The stock is up 28% in the last month. It is up close to 600% in the last year.
Even though Palantir has good profit margins that may grow even more in the coming years, there is only so much margin expansion you can achieve.
PLTR Gamma Risk High – Is This the Perfect Time for Puts? 📉 PLTR One-Day Put Play – Failed Breakout Turns Bearish
**Sentiment:** 🔻 *Bearish to Neutral*
* **Daily RSI:** 72.7 ⬇️ (falling from overbought)
* **Weekly RSI:** 83.0 ⬇️ (weakening momentum)
* **Volume:** 0.8× last week → low institutional conviction
* **C/P Ratio:** 1.05 (neutral flow)
* **Gamma Risk:** HIGH — expiry in 1 day
* **Time Decay:** Accelerating ⚠️
---
### 📊 **Consensus Snapshot**
✅ All models agree momentum is fading
✅ Weak volume + falling RSI = bearish bias
⚠️ Gamma risk means tight stop-loss & active monitoring
---
### 🎯 **Trade Setup**
* **Type:** PUT (Short)
* **Strike:** \$177.50
* **Expiry:** 2025-08-15
* **Entry:** \$0.69
* **Profit Target:** \$1.00 (+45%)
* **Stop Loss:** \$0.35 (–50%)
* **Confidence:** 70%
* **Entry Timing:** Market open
---
💬 *This is a 24-hour bearish momentum play — watch price action closely.*
📌 *Not financial advice. DYOR.*
---
**#PLTR #OptionsTrading #PutOptions #TradingSignals #GammaRisk #StocksToWatch #DayTrading #OptionsFlow**
A Jade Lizard Play for Earnings (4-dte) on PLTR.
This is 4-DTE with a wide $140 short Put and $170 Short Call spread.
A slightly bullish strategy combining an out-of-the-money short put and out-of-the-money bear call spread. When created properly, this strategy has no upside risk. It is best suited for oversold stocks with high implied volatility.
PLTR Elliot Wave Short Trade IdeaPalantir has experienced a remarkable rally since its April lows, surging to its current price levels. Throughout this uptrend, I’ve been analyzing the movement through the lens of Elliott Wave Theory. Given the stock’s relatively limited price history, the wave structure has been notably straightforward and discernible.
We’ve decisively broken through several key price zones as the stock appears to be approaching the culmination of a fifth wave, with a projected target around the $185–$186 range. Based on my analysis, this level may act as a potential area for profit-taking, potentially triggering a retracement toward the Point of Control (POC)—the price range that has seen the highest volume during this ascent.
If such a pullback does occur, it could serve as an effective hedge for those who have realized significant gains during this impressive rally.
PLTR: The Top Is INPLTR has reached my top as stated in a previous post. This post is simply to show fib retracement levels to show how I came to this conclusion. As seen in the circles labeled, PLTR has given clues along the way by hitting these fib retracement, either as resistance or support. The next target for PLTR is $161 in the next week or two.
PLTR – TA + GEX Confluence for August 13, 202530-Minute Price Action
PLTR broke out of a short-term downtrend channel and is now testing the $188.45 resistance zone.
* Resistance: $188.45 – key breakout level; aligns with recent highs before pullbacks.
* Support: $182.68 – breakout retest level; $181.97 – secondary support.
* Indicators:
* MACD shows strong bullish momentum after crossover, though starting to flatten.
* Stoch RSI cooling off from overbought, indicating possible consolidation before next leg.
1-Hour GEX Insights
* Highest Positive NET GEX / Gamma Wall: $188.66 – major upside resistance.
* Next Call Walls Above: $190 (strong GEX concentration) and $192.5–$195 (layered gamma resistance).
* Put Support: $180 (GEX support floor), $172.5 (secondary defense), $170 (major downside floor).
* IVR: 9.3 – relatively low implied volatility rank, making long options affordable.
TA + GEX Combined Read
The 30m breakout toward $188.45 lines up with the largest GEX wall at $188.66 on the 1h chart.
* A break above $188.66 could quickly fuel momentum toward $190 and $192.5 on gamma hedging flows.
* Failure to hold above $188 could see a retest of $182.68 and possibly $180, where GEX provides strong support.
Trading Scenarios for August 13
* Bullish Breakout: Long calls or debit spreads above $189 targeting $190–$192.5.
* Bearish Rejection: Puts or put spreads if $188.66 rejects and $182.68 breaks, targeting $180.
* Neutral Play: If price stays between $182–$189, short premium strategies could work given low IVR, but manage risk for breakout moves.
Reasoning
The 30m breakout and retest structure aligns with the 1h GEX’s largest resistance level. Tomorrow’s trading will likely hinge on $188.66 — a confirmed break could trigger gamma-fueled upside, while rejection keeps PLTR in consolidation or sends it back to key GEX support zones.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk appropriately before trading.
PLTR Weekly Options Outlook – Overbought & Losing🚨 PLTR Weekly Options Outlook (Aug 12, 2025) – Overbought & Losing Steam? 🚨
### **Market Sentiment**
* **Call/Put Ratio:** 0.81 → Neutral bias
* **Days to Expiration:** 3 → Gamma risk & fast time decay kicking in
* **VIX:** 15.3 → Low volatility = easier directional plays
### **RSI Check**
* **Daily RSI:** 75.3 → Overbought, trending **down**
* **Weekly RSI:** 81.5 → Overbought, trending **down**
* Momentum exhaustion likely → risk of **pullback/consolidation**
### **Volume & Options Flow**
* Weekly volume **+150%** → Institutional participation confirmed
* Options flow balanced (calls ≈ puts) → Hedging, not aggressive bets
### **Consensus Across Models**
✅ Agreement: Strong institutional flow, but RSI decline = caution
⚠ Disagreement:
* Some models → **No trade** (momentum exhaustion risk)
* Others → **Moderate bullish** (volume support)
### **Conclusion**
📉 Short-term bias: **Neutral → Slight Bearish** despite bullish volume
📊 **Confidence Level:** 65%
🚫 No naked calls recommended here — wait for better entry after a pullback
---
**💡 Key Risks:**
1. RSI exhaustion → bigger pullback possible
2. Volatility shift before expiration → premium decay risk
---
📌 **Tags:**
\#PLTR #OptionsTrading #WeeklyOutlook #StockAnalysis #GammaRisk #Overbought #RSI #VolumeAnalysis #InstitutionalFlow #TradingView
PLTR 1D — When the tea is brewed and the handle’s in placePalantir’s daily chart is shaping up a textbook cup with handle pattern — one of the most reliable continuation setups in technical analysis. The cup base was formed over several months and transitioned into a consolidation phase, building a rectangle structure where smart money likely accumulated positions before a breakout.
Now here’s the key: price has not only broken out — it’s settled above all major moving averages, including EMA 20/50/100/200 and MA 50/200. The breakout candle was supported by surging volume, signaling strong participation from institutional buyers. When all the averages start bending upwards, it's usually not by accident.
The breakout above the $121 resistance zone unlocked a pathway toward a target at $187 , derived by projecting the height of the cup upward from the breakout level. This kind of structure, once confirmed, often fuels aggressive continuation — and this one’s got the setup locked in.
From a fundamental perspective, Palantir is holding solid ground: strong earnings reports, expanding government and commercial contracts, and aggressive development in AI services. Institutional interest is rising steadily, and that momentum is visibly reflected in price action.
To sum it up: price has launched cleanly out of the consolidation zone, pierced all critical MAs and EMAs, and continues to gain momentum. While the market sips its tea, this cup is boiling hot. Just don’t forget your stop loss — this is a trading desk, not a tea party.
If you enjoy posts like this, drop a like, share it around, and let’s hear your thoughts below. It keeps ideas moving and the content flowing — free, sharp, and relevant.
PLTR AI hype cooling off? PLTR dipped to $182.68 (-2.29%), still up ~22% 1M, with RSI(14) at 80.25 and all-time high of 187.99 hit Aug 8. Stochastic >85, ADX >30, but fading volume post-Q2 (mixed AI outlook) and CPI-driven yield pressure suggest reversal below 190 resistance. Forecasts point to supports at 175/160 if 180 breaks.
Chart Analysis:
Uptrend from $150, but RSI at extremes with potential divergence. Price above EMA(50) ~$170, upper BB tested.
Key levels: Resistance at $188 (recent high), supports at $175 (near-term), $172.5 (HVL), deeper $160 (major pivot/Fib 61.8%).
Trade Idea: Short
Entry: Below $180 (break of key level).
Target: $160 (deeper support on earnings fade).
Stop Loss: $185 (tighter above resistance for lower risk).
Risk: ~$5 (180 to 185), Reward: ~$20 (180 to 160), R/R: 1:4. Watch for confirmation if loses 172.5.
#PLTR #Overbought #Tech #Pullback
PLTR — Testing Key Resistance, Eyes on 190 Breakout. Aug. 11PLTR — Testing Key Resistance, Eyes on 190 Breakout 🚀
GEX & Options Sentiment (1H)
PLTR’s options board is showing concentrated call positioning between 185–190, with 96% call wall pressure at 187.5. This is the highest positive NetGEX zone, meaning market makers are more likely to hedge by buying if price breaks and holds above 187.7 — which could trigger a gamma squeeze toward 192.5–195.
Downside protection sits at 180–182 with heavy put walls at 170 and 160. Losing 180 could pull the stock quickly toward 172.5 HVL support. IVR is at 11.9, relatively low, suggesting calls remain cheap for momentum plays.
1H Technical Analysis
Price has been respecting a rising channel with multiple touches on the trendline, currently consolidating just under 187.7 resistance. Momentum (MACD) is flat but still in positive territory, and Stoch RSI is mid-range — suggesting more room to run before overbought conditions kick in.
If bulls break 187.7 with volume, 190–192.5 is the next target. Failure to clear could trigger a pullback to retest 184.5 and possibly 182 before another leg higher.
Trade Plan
* Bullish Scenario:
Break & hold above 187.7 → target 190, then 192.5.
Options: Short-dated 190C for momentum or swing 192.5C if targeting the squeeze.
Stop-loss: Below 184.5.
* Bearish Scenario:
Rejection at 187.7 with heavy selling → target 184.5, then 182.
Options: Short-dated 182P or 180P if momentum shifts down.
Stop-loss: Above 188.5.
Thoughts
PLTR is sitting at a key inflection point — break 187.7 and bulls control short term; reject here and bears can force a healthy pullback. The low IVR makes directional options attractive, but this is a “breakout or fade” setup — so patience until confirmation is key.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk accordingly.
PLTR at Premium Supply Zone – Trend Exhaustion or One More Push?📊 Market Breakdown
PLTR has been on a monster run, now trading at $186.96 and tapping into the Premium/Supply Zone ($187.82). Price is still respecting its ascending channel, but with RSI deep in overbought territory at 80.25 and today’s sharp candle, we could be looking at a potential pullback — unless buyers can force one last squeeze.
Trend: Strong uptrend since late 2024 with clean higher highs & higher lows.
Key Structure: Recent bounce from equilibrium (~$150) before a strong push into supply.
Volume: Heavy activity suggests institutions may be scaling out at these highs.
Indicators:
MACD: Bullish momentum still intact but showing signs of slowing.
RSI: 80.25 – extremely overbought, signaling risk of near-term profit-taking.
🛒 CALLS (Bullish Scenario)
Buy Zones:
🎯 Aggressive Entry: Pullback to $175–$178 support (mid-channel bounce)
✅ Confirmation Entry: Daily close above $188–$190 with strong volume
Take Profits:
1️⃣ $200 – Psychological resistance
2️⃣ $215 – Upper channel extension
3️⃣ $240 – Long-shot target if breakout runs hot
Stop-Loss: $172
Why This Works: A breakout above $190 could force shorts to cover, triggering a squeeze to $200+ in 2–3 weeks.
🛑 PUTS (Bearish Scenario)
Sell Zones:
🚨 Aggressive Entry: Rejection at $188–$190 supply zone
📉 Breakdown Entry: Daily close below $175
Take Profits:
1️⃣ $150 – Equilibrium zone
2️⃣ $125 – Prior breakout base
3️⃣ $105 – Major demand zone
Stop-Loss: $193
Why This Works: RSI at 80.25 suggests exhaustion; rejection here could drag price back toward $150 equilibrium in 1–2 weeks.
🔍 Technical Highlights
Channel Play: PLTR is riding an ascending channel; a break either way could trigger a big move.
Supply Zone Test: $188 is the key pivot — breakout = continuation, rejection = retracement.
Macro Watch: Keep an eye on NASDAQ & AI sector ETFs for confirmation moves.
⏳ Option Expiration Strategy:
1 Week: Short-term rejection trade from $188
2–3 Weeks: Breakout targeting $200–$215
PLTR Bulls Unstoppable? Key Levels You Can’t Ignore! 🚀 PLTR Swing Trade Setup (2025-08-09) 🚀
**Bias:** 📈 **Cautious Bullish** — momentum strong, RSI hot, but volume light = high risk at highs.
**🎯 Trade Plan**
* **Ticker:** \ NASDAQ:PLTR
* **Type:** CALL (LONG)
* **Strike:** \$212.50 (slightly OTM)
* **Entry:** \$0.85 (open)
* **Profit Target:** \$1.27 (+49%)
* **Stop Loss:** \$0.59 (-30%)
* **Expiry:** 2025-08-22 (2W)
* **Size:** 1 contract
* **Confidence:** 70%
**📊 Key Notes**
* RSI 84.2 → extreme overbought 🚨
* Multi-timeframe momentum ✅
* Weak volume = low institutional conviction ❌
* Resistance ahead — watch \$175-\$180 pullback zone for safer reload
* Mixed analyst models: some say “wait,” others say “small bullish”
Hot Take, PLTR is a BubbleHello I am the Cafe Trader.
Price Action suggest we haven't had a proper buyer since $90.
Now I know that this can sound a bit off putting (especially if you bought above $90).
Even if this crashed, I am not suggesting you sell your long term position. I would instead look into hedging your position, giving yourself some exposure to the downside.
Consider these 2 non-biased reasons before writing me off.
Point 1
Price action suggests we have been in a short squeeze since April. Although in the short term I do see current retail buyers taking this to 169.
Point 2
If we do not land new Strong Buyer (someone that can support the price) all of this squeeze will come crashing back down to where they can support the price.
Conclusion
If we close below 152.50 on the day, this would suggest that bears have or are in control. This would expose many to tons of risk.
Here are my long Term prices for PLTR
Aggressive = 120
Fair = 107.50 - 108.50
Good = 89
Steal = 71-74.50
That's all for PLTR take a look at my other articles if you are interested in more!
Happy Trading!
@thecafetrader
PLTR Next Move? **PLTR — Weekly Trade Idea (Aug 8, 2025)**
🚀 **Strong Bullish Momentum** — Daily RSI: 81.2 / Weekly RSI: 79.0
📈 **Volume Surge** — +70% vs last week, strong institutional backing
📉 **Low Volatility** — VIX at 15.8 supports bullish setups
⚠️ **High Gamma Risk** — 0DTE options, rapid time decay today
**Trade Plan:**
* **Type:** Buy Call (190 Strike)
* **Expiry:** Aug 8 (0DTE)
* **Entry:** \$0.39 at open
* **Target:** \$0.78 (100% gain)
* **Stop:** \$0.16 (-40%)
* **Confidence:** 75%
* **Tip:** Manage size carefully; close before EOD to avoid decay crush
PLTR Approaching Critical Levels. Can the Breakout Sustain?Aug 7PLTR Approaching Critical Levels – Can the Breakout Sustain? 🔥
🔍 Technical Analysis (1H & 15M View)
PLTR has been in a strong uptrend, respecting the upper trendline of the rising channel on the 1H timeframe. Price is consolidating below $180 after a clean breakout from the $172.5–$176 range. Bullish momentum remains intact as MACD crosses upward again with histogram flipping light blue. Stoch RSI is mid-range, allowing room for another push.
* Key support: $176.21 and $172.27
* Resistance ahead: $183.00–$185.00 zone, aligned with projected trendline
* Trend structure: Higher highs and higher lows — buyers remain in control
* Volume is consistent on green candles, showing strength behind moves
15-Minute Chart Insight:
Price is flagging just under the $180 resistance after a measured move. A breakout above $180 could trigger a squeeze toward $183–$185. A clean 15-min close below $176 would weaken this structure and invite a pullback to $172.27.
Bias: Bullish while price holds above $176.21
🧠 Options & GEX Sentiment (Based on Tanuki GEX Map)
* GEX Resistance Zones:
* $182.5 → $185.0 (GEX9 + GEX7): This is the strongest gamma resistance cluster — a breakout here would be explosive.
* $179.5–$180 also marks a wall with high net positive GEX.
* Support Zones:
* $172.5–$176.21: Shallow demand zone, supported by options flow.
* $162.5–$160.0: Stronger GEX and HVL support, likely defended by dealers.
* Options Sentiment:
* IVR: 12.6 → Low implied volatility
* IVx Avg: 53.9 → Currently below average IV
* CALL$: 20.6% dominance → Mild bullish tilt
* GEX sentiment: All green (📗📗📗📗) — supports upside continuation
✅ Game Plan
* Bullish Setup:
* Entry: Above $180.2
* Target: $183.3 → $185
* Stop: $176.2
* Bearish Setup (only if rejected hard):
* Entry: Break below $175.5
* Target: $172.27 → $170
* Stop: $178
Scalpers can look for breakout retests on 15M or use VWAP bounce entries if price pulls into $176.2–$177.0 zone.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
PLTR Earnings About To Print
## 🚨 PLTR Earnings Incoming: +80% Confidence Call Setup into AI Boom 🚀
**🧠 Palantir Technologies (PLTR) Earnings Analysis – August 8, 2025 (AMC)**
**📈 Position:** \$165 Call | 🎯 Entry: \$6.45 | 💰 Target: \$22.58 | 🛑 Stop: \$3.23
**🕒 Entry Timing:** Pre-Earnings Close | Expiry: Aug 8, 2025
---
### 🔍 Quick Breakdown:
* 📊 **Revenue Growth:** +39.3% TTM – AI sector leadership
* 💰 **Margins:** 80% Gross | 19.9% Operating | 18.3% Net
* 🧾 **EPS Beat Rate:** 88% | Avg Surprise: +10.7%
* 📉 **Debt-to-Equity:** 4.43 – watch rates & debt risk
* 📈 **RSI:** 66.88 – strong momentum, near breakout
* 📊 **Volume:** Above average – institutional accumulation
* 🧠 **Options Flow:** Heavy \$165/\$170 call OI = bullish gamma exposure
* 🛡️ **Support:** \$151.94 | 📌 Resistance: \$161.24
* 🔭 **Macro Tailwinds:** AI + defense demand + sector rotation into tech
---
### 🧠 Trade Thesis:
Strong fundamentals + bullish options flow + tech sector tailwinds = **High-probability breakout**
🧨 **IV Rank: 0.75** – Big move priced in
💡 Likely to squeeze if results exceed expectations
---
### 💼 Trade Setup (Recap):
```
💎 Ticker: NASDAQ:PLTR
🔔 Direction: Long Call
🎯 Strike: $165
💵 Entry: $6.45
🎯 Profit Target: $22.58 (250%+)
🛑 Stop Loss: $3.23
📅 Expiry: 2025-08-08
📆 Earnings: August 8 (AMC)
🧠 Confidence: 80%
```
---
### 📌 Hashtags for TradingView:
```
#PLTR #EarningsPlay #AIStocks #TechMomentum
#OptionsTrading #GammaSqueeze #CallOptions
#UnusualOptionsActivity #Palantir #EarningsSetup
#TradingViewIdeas #VolatilityPlay #RiskReward
#AI #DefenseStocks #SwingTrade
```
---
💬 **TL;DR:** PLTR earnings are set to rip. Revenue surging, margins healthy, call options stacked, and momentum rising. Are you in before the AI-driven explosion?
Palantir is a cult? Ticker: NYSE:PLTR
Current Price: $173
Market Cap: $380B+
P/S: 116x
P/E: 500x+ trailing, 234x forward
Bear Thesis:
Palantir is now trading at a level that makes even Nvidia look cheap. This is a classic parabolic AI play driven by retail FOMO, not by fundamentals. The company needs to maintain 30%+ annual growth for years just to justify today’s valuation. One miss, and the whole tower comes down.
Problems:
1. Valuation is insane, far above anything justified by cashflow or realistic comps. DCF and sum-of-parts models put fair value between $20 and $30. That’s up to 85% downside from here.
2. Analyst average price target sits at $108. Plenty call for $40–$75 if growth stalls or the hype fades.
3. Heavy reliance on US government deals. Any cut to defense budgets, a change in admin, or a headline scandal and half their contracts can disappear.
4. Competition is coming hard. Google, Amazon, Microsoft all pushing enterprise AI. Palantir’s moat is shrinking.
5. Stock acts like a meme: options-fueled squeezes, no connection to cashflow. If market sentiment turns risk-off, these multiples get crushed.
What could trigger the unwind:
• Any earnings miss, weak guidance, or margin compression
• Defense budget cuts or bad headlines
• AI trade rotation or a macro correction targeting high-flyers
• Commercial growth disappoints
Bear Targets:
• $108: analyst average (still aggressive)
• $40–$75: if narrative breaks, AI hype dies, or execution slips
• $20–$30: where most bear DCFs cluster, fair value based on realistic growth
Bottom Line:
PLTR is pricing in perfection in a market that rarely delivers it. If you’re long here, you’re paying tomorrow’s prices for today’s story. This is one of the most crowded trades in AI right now, and history says these always end the same way. Protect your capital.
PLTR Holding Strong. TA for Aug. 6PLTR Holding Strong – Can the Momentum Continue? 🚀
Technical Overview (30-Min Chart)
PLTR has been in a strong uptrend, riding a steep ascending channel from the $151 support region. After hitting a high of $176.33, price has slightly cooled off but remains above $171, indicating healthy consolidation rather than a breakdown. MACD is showing a gradual loss in bullish momentum, while Stoch RSI is oversold—suggesting potential for another leg higher if buying pressure resumes.
Key support lies at $167.50–$165 (previous breakout area), while resistance remains at $176–$180 (channel top).
GEX / Options Sentiment
* Major Call Walls: $177.5, $180 – heavy gamma resistance where market makers could slow price movement if breached.
* Highest Positive NETGEX: $176.3 – aligns with the channel resistance, making it a critical breakout level.
* Strong Call Positioning: 72% concentration at $165–$177.5 range keeps the bias bullish above $167.
* Put Support: $155 – heavy protection level where downside could stall if selling pressure picks up.
Trading Plan
Bullish Scenario (Higher Probability if Above $167)
* Entry: On reclaim of $173 with strong volume or breakout above $176.5.
* Target 1: $177.5 (Call Wall test)
* Target 2: $180 (next gamma wall)
* Stop Loss: $166 close basis.
* Options Idea: Short-term weekly calls targeting $177.5+ strikes if breakout confirmed, keeping expirations tight (1–2 weeks).
Bearish Scenario (Only If Breakdown Below $165)
* Entry: On break & close below $165.
* Target 1: $160.7 (minor support)
* Target 2: $155 (Put wall)
* Stop Loss: Above $167.
* Options Idea: Short-term puts targeting $160–$155 zone, tight expiration to capture momentum drop.
Summary
PLTR remains bullish as long as $167 support holds. Watch for breakout above $176.3 for a gamma-driven push to $180. Options flow shows strong call dominance, but failure to hold $165 could flip sentiment quickly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always manage risk according to your trading plan.