Circle - Opportunity to Accumulate AheadI like to think this interesting stock is in its final Elliott Wave leg, which makes things pretty intriguing right now.
For me, this sets up an opportunity to start looking at accumulation heading into mid 4Q25.
Looking out for indiscriminate selling pressure around certain catalysts.
Key events to watch: the 3Q earnings release (likely mid-Oct to Nov 2025, though the date isn’t confirmed yet) and the standard 180-day IPO unlock. Based on the timeline, that could either hit right after earnings or on December 2, 2025, depending on when the restrictions technically roll off. There might also be a secondary unlock post-earnings, which adds another layer of potential supply.
From a technical standpoint, the upcoming increase in float means liquidity could flood the market. That usually opens the door to more downside pressure, which in this case could complete the final leg of the Elliott Wave correction. I’m eyeing the 90–100 range as a potential accumulation zone once the dust settles.
On the macro side, it’s hard to ignore the broader risk backdrop. Crypto is flashing some warning signs—BTC sitting around 112k while ETH is at 4.2k, and we just saw ETH break its support level right after the Fed’s rate cut. Feels very much like a “sell the news” setup, which makes me think we could be staring down the start of a crypto winter.
All in all, this stock remains fascinating, but timing will be key. Let’s see how it plays out once supply flows in and the final wave structure completes.
Stay sane out there, and may the odds be in your favor. Good luck.
