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MSFT / MICROSOFT / Fractal and Seasonality inspiredHere is my view on MSFT from seasonal and fractal point of view. Price gonna break the recent 516 high, shall turn and break recent 505 low than head upside for end of the year ralley. i put 2 Longs into the chart. Smaller for first partial take profit and the larger one for rest. All this should play out until 15th of November or latest until End of January. After January 2026 downside. Be careful! (This is not a trade call, just educational analysis, trade at your own risk) Feel free to comment so we can learn and improve together! Cheers!
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by ernstschwarz
18
MSFT HAGIA SOPHIA! Self-explanatory, I think. Never trust motivational moves! They fade faster than a New Year's resolution! Yet we all fall for it all the time. The difference is we don't bet our hard-earned money every time we get motivated to learn our lesson after about the fifth or sixth or seventh... time! For some reason, in trading, it's different; most don't even learn after the hundredth time! I am guessing it has something to do with the herd mentality. Others are doing it so its okay for me to lose my ass with them for the one hundredth and one time chasing!! If I haven't convinced you yet, NOT to do it. Try thinking of it like this. There are many better trades out there to buy! Hagia Sophia is not there to make you rich! It is there to humble you! Click boost like and subscribe! l3ts get to 5,000 followers! ))
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by RealMacro
1
Microsoft: The Perfect Pullback Is Coming. Are You Ready?🌟 MSFT HEIST ALERT! 🌟 Steal from the Cops, Not from the Citizens! 🚔➡️🤑 Dear Ladies & Gentleman of the Thief Trading Guild, 🎩👒 Based on the 🔥Thief Trading Style Analysis🔥, here is our master plan to heist the Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) fortress. Our intel confirms a BULLISH ambush is setting up! It's time to loot! 💰💸✈️ 🦹‍♂️ THE HEIST PLAN (SWING TRADE) 🦹‍♂️ Entry Point: The Perfect Pullback Loot Zone! 🎯 We're waiting for the asset to pull back to our LAYERED LIMIT ORDER TRAP! 🪤 Thief OG's use multiple entries to maximize the steal! LAYER 1: 510.00 (First dibs!) LAYER 2: 505.00 (Loading the bag!) LAYER 3: 500.00 (MAIN HEIST - Perfect Pullback!) LAYER 4: 498.00 (Bonus loot! Add more layers based on your own risk, thieves!) Stop Loss: The Getaway Car Location! 🛑🏎️ This is Thief SL @ 485.00. This is where the trade idea is invalidated. Dear Thieves, adjust your final SL based on your own risk, strategy, and how many layers you used. Don't get caught! 👮‍♂️🚔 Target: The Police Barricade! 🚧🚨 Intel shows a major resistance wall (Police Barricade) at 565.00. Our mission is to escape with the stolen money BEFORE we get there! Escape Target: 560.00! Count your profits and live to trade another day! 💵🎉🤝 📢 THIEF'S BROADCAST 📢 Yo! Listen up, crew! 🗣️ If you're placing limit orders on this pullback, your stop loss should be set ONLY AFTER your order is filled! You feel me? Now, if you're smart, you'll place that stop loss where I told you 📍, but if you're a rebel, you can put it wherever you like 🤪 - just remember, you're playing with fire 🔥, and it's your risk, not mine! 👊 ⚠️ TRADING ALERT : EARNINGS & NEWS ⚠️ MSFT is a big cap stock, and news/earnings can cause extreme volatility! To protect your stolen loot: Avoid entering new layers before major news. Consider taking some profit before earnings. Use trailing stop-loss orders to protect running positions! 💖 Supporting our robbery plan = 💥Hitting the Boost Button💥 It fuels our getaway car and helps us find the next big heist! Let's make stealing money look easy! 🏆💪❤️🎉 I'll see you at the next heist, so stay tuned! 🤑🐱‍👤🤗🤩
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by The-Thief
2
Microsoft’s Battle with the $520 Resistance!🔎 Technical Outlook 📍 Current Situation The stock is testing the critical $515–$520 resistance zone (purple line). The 50-day moving average (yellow) sits around $511, acting as near-term support. Multiple rejections around $520 highlight how important this level is. 🎯 Short-Term Strategy (Swing / Daily) Entry: Daily close above $522 Target 1: $535 Target 2: $548–$550 Stop-loss: Daily close below $511 (50-day MA and recent support) ⚠️ If the price fails to hold above $520 and breaks below $511, a pullback toward $490 is likely. 🎯 Long-Term Strategy (Position / Weekly) Safe Entry: Break and hold above $530 Mid-term Target: $565 Long-term Target: $580–$600 (potential new all-time high) Stop-loss: A breakdown below $484 (major support and previous swing low) 📌 Summary Short-term: The $520 zone is the battlefield. Breakout = bullish momentum, rejection = correction. Long-term: A confirmed breakout above $530 clears the path toward new highs.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by isahebdadi
Bulls Reload at Gap Support - Spring Loads for Breakout📌 To see my confluences and/or linework, step 1: grab chart, step 2: unhide Group 1 in object tree, step 3: hide and unhide specific confluences. 😊 🎯 MSFT: Bulls Reload at Gap Fill - Spring Loads for Breakout The Market Participant Battle: The bulls who drove price from point 2 to point 3 have successfully defended their conviction zone at point 4 (the gap fill area). When point 3 closed above point 1, it validated point 2 buyers' strength. Now these same participants are reloading at their original entry zone with positive delta confirmation, setting up for another leg higher as buyers overwhelm sellers at this critical support level. Confluences: Confluence 1: Gap Fill Support with Positive Delta The gap area at point 4 represents where buyers previously showed extreme conviction, creating upward price gaps to demonstrate urgency. Price has returned to this zone with POSITIVE volume delta, showing buyers are actively defending and accumulating at these levels. The Volume Footprint confirms buying dominance at this critical level, suggesting institutional accumulation rather than distribution. Confluence 2: Hidden Bullish Divergence on RSI/MFI Both RSI and MFI display hidden bullish divergences - price makes higher lows while indicators make lower lows. Additionally, both oscillators are oversold at the gap area (point 4), creating a second-degree layered bullish divergence. This technical setup typically precedes strong upward moves, particularly when occurring at historically significant price levels. Confluence 3: Anchored VWAP Support Convergence The anchored VWAP from point 1 brings point 4 precisely to the 1st standard deviation - a mathematically significant support level. This same reaction occurs when anchoring VWAP at the previous gap, suggesting algorithms and institutions are defending this price zone. The developing POC shows buyers stepping in below and then pushing price above, indicating active accumulation. Confluence 4: Pitchfork Median Line Confluence Anchoring the pitchfork at pivots 0, 1, and 2 creates a median line that intersects perfectly with the turning point where point 2 buyers defeated sellers from point 1. This geometric confluence at the gap fill zone suggests a high-probability bounce point. Confluence 5: OBV Bollinger Band Extreme & Delta Divergence The OBV touching the lower Bollinger Band extreme marks a capitulation point. Combined with the current candle showing bearish price action but BULLISH delta (buyers absorbing selling), this creates a powerful bullish divergence signal. Web Research Findings: - Technical Analysis: RSI at 64.861 suggests Buy signal, MACD at 2.850 indicates Buy - Recent News/Earnings: Q4 earnings beat with $3.65 EPS vs $3.37 expected, revenue $76.44B vs $73.81B expected - Analyst Sentiment: Average 12-month price target $625.78 with 20.82% upside potential - Data Releases: Next earnings late October 2025 - Interest Rate Impact: Quarter-point Fed cut implemented with more cuts signaled for 2025 Layman's Summary: Microsoft crushed earnings with AI and cloud revenue exploding. The stock pulled back to a key support level where big buyers previously showed strong interest (the gap). Now they're buying again at these levels (positive delta), while technical indicators are oversold and showing bullish divergences. With Fed rate cuts helping tech stocks and analysts targeting 20% upside, this looks like a solid reload opportunity. Machine Derived Information: - Image 1: Channel pattern with numbered reference points - Significance: Shows clear support test at gap fill area - AGREES ✔ - Image 2: Volume Footprint with positive delta at point 4 - Significance: Confirms buyer accumulation at gap support - AGREES ✔ - Images 3-6: Multiple timeframe confirmation - Significance: Consistent support holding around $509-510 gap zone - AGREES ✔ - Images 7-8: Moving average structure - Significance: Price testing key support with oversold bounce setup - AGREES ✔ - Images 9-10: Current consolidation - Significance: Bullish flag formation after support test - AGREES ✔ Actionable Machine Summary: All machine-derived analysis confirms the bullish thesis. The gap fill area is holding with positive delta, multiple timeframes show support at this zone, and the consolidation pattern suggests accumulation before the next leg up. The combination of technical support, positive volume dynamics, and oversold indicators creates a high-probability long setup. Conclusion: Trade Prediction: SUCCESS Confidence: High The convergence of gap support with positive delta, multiple bullish divergences, and strong fundamental backdrop creates an excellent risk/reward setup. Machine analysis confirms buyer accumulation at these levels. Target the recent high at $518 initially, then $525-530 on a breakout. Stop loss below $508 for a favorable 3:1 risk/reward ratio.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by jacesabr_real
MSFT 1H + GEX Game Plan for Tue, Sep 16MSFT Closing In on 520 Gamma Zone — Ready for a Fresh Breakout? 💡 Market Structure (1-Hour View) * Reversal & breakout: Microsoft powered off a 504 base, reclaimed the broken trendline, and is grinding higher toward 516. * Momentum: MACD remains bullish with an expanding histogram; Stoch RSI is hovering near overbought (~90+), signaling strong momentum but risk of short pullbacks. * Trend context: Price is now above key short-term MAs and pointing to a continuation pattern. Key Levels to Watch * Resistance: 515.7 (current cap), 520.0–522.5, and 525–530 as upper gamma targets. * Support: 512.5, 509.9–505.0, and 495.0 as deeper safety nets. GEX Read (Sep 16) * Highest positive NETGEX / Call Resistance / Gamma wall: 520.0 * 2nd Call Wall: 522.5, 3rd Call Wall: 530. * Put walls / downside magnets: 495 and 490. * Options sentiment: Calls ~13% (light but steady), IVR ~10, IVx ~23.5 → low implied volatility, option premiums relatively cheap for directional plays. Implication: * Dealers may attempt to pin MSFT between 510 and 520 if flow is neutral. * A decisive breakout >520 could invite hedging that propels price toward 522.5 → 525–530. * Lose 505 and momentum can quickly unwind toward 495–490. Trade Scenarios 1) Bullish Breakout * Trigger: 1H close >516–518 with rising volume. * Entry: 518 on retest/hold. * Targets: 520 → 522.5 → 525. * Stop: Below 514. * Options: 520/525 call debit spread for a near-term push. 2) Range Fade * Trigger: Failure to clear 516 with multiple rejection wicks. * Entry: 515.5–516 short. * Targets: 512.5 → 509.9. * Stop: Above 518. * Options: 515P or 515/510 put spread for a short pullback. 3) Breakdown * Trigger: 1H close <505 with weak retest. * Entry: 504–505 short. * Targets: 495 → 490 (put support). * Stop: Back above 508. Options: 505/495 put spread for a deeper corrective leg. Scalping & Swing Notes * If MSFT gaps up near 518, expect a quick test of 516 before direction sets. * EMA/VWAP retests that hold above 514–515 favor continuation; dips to 512–513 may offer buy-the-dip scalps. Risk & Management * IV is relatively low, making debit call spreads cost-efficient. * Keep stops tight near breakout zones; take partial profits at first target to lock gains. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always trade with a plan and manage your risk.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by BullBearInsights
Microsoft (MSFT) Technical Update & its channelMicrosoft (MSFT) Technical Update & its channel Microsoft began forming a long-term ascending channel as far back as November 2021, marked by three higher highs and two higher lows, as illustrated on the chart. The price action became particularly interesting when it broke out of this channel, reaching a new all-time high (ATH) of approximately $557. However, the underlying fundamentals (catalysts) were insufficient to sustain momentum at that level, leading to a pullback. The stock is now consolidating around the $522 zone — a key confluence area where the ascending trendline meets a horizontal support level. Outlook: If price breaks below this zone and re-enters the channel, a deeper correction could follow, with potential downside targets in the $500 – $480 range. As always, I encourage you to review the chart, share your thoughts in the comments, and connect if you’d like to discuss further.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by ForexClinik
The Escalation Pattern: MSFT's Strengthening Rejection# The Escalation Pattern: MSFT's Strengthening Rejection ## Seller Authority Confirmed (Points 1→3) The market delivered its verdict when Point 3 closed decisively below Point 1 , establishing Point 2 sellers as the dominant force in the local market structure. This wasn't a minor victory - it was proof of seller superiority. Now at Point 4 , price has returned to test these proven sellers' resolve. ## The Escalation Phenomenon What makes this setup extraordinary is the escalating rejection pattern . Price has tested this resistance zone three times , and each rejection has been progressively stronger . This isn't random - it reveals sellers gaining conviction, increasingly viewing these levels as attractive short entries. Think of it as the opposite of accumulation - it's distribution with growing confidence . Each failed attempt emboldens more sellers to defend this zone. ## Hidden Bullish Divergence - The Trap Here's where it gets interesting: • Price : Lower high at Point 4 • RSI/MFI : Higher highs (hidden bullish divergence) • Both oscillators : Oversold territory Typically, hidden bullish divergence suggests continuation up. But when it appears at proven resistance with escalating rejections , it becomes a trap. The divergence shows buyers trying harder (higher momentum) but achieving less (lower price high) - a sign of exhaustion, not strength. ## The Volume Ceiling Signal The OBV has pierced the upper Bollinger Band - a rare occurrence that typically precedes reversals. When volume indicators hit extremes while price fails to break resistance, it suggests: • Buyers exhausting their ammunition • Sellers absorbing all buying pressure • Imminent reversal as buying dries up ## VWAP and POC Alignment Using a local high anchor, price touches the VWAP median line - a mathematical resistance point. More importantly, at trade entry (stop order), we'll be below the Point of Control (POC) , meaning: • Highest volume node acts as support for shorts • Majority of traders have positions above current price • Institutional algorithms defend POC levels ## The Triple Test Rule In technical analysis, the triple test is significant: • First test : Establishes resistance • Second test : Confirms resistance • Third test : Often breaks OR fails spectacularly With each test showing stronger rejection , we're seeing the "fail spectacularly" scenario setting up. ## Risk Management Framework Entry Signal: • Current rejection from Point 4 • Stop order activation below POC Stop Loss: 513.69 (1.93% risk) - Above Point 2 (proven seller level) Target: 496.69 (11.25% reward) - Chaos Theory zone support Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:5.8 Position Advantages: • POC below entry provides support • Multiple rejections reduce false breakout risk • Escalating pattern suggests strong conviction • Target aligns with mathematical support zone from Chaos Theory indicator ## The Conviction Story The escalating rejections tell a clear narrative: 1. Sellers defend their territory (first test) 2. Sellers gain confidence (second test, stronger rejection) 3. Sellers become aggressive (third test, even stronger rejection) 4. Sellers dominate completely (fourth test, strongest rejection yet) 5. Buyers exhaust despite trying harder (divergence trap) This isn't just resistance - it's active, confident distribution . --- Key Takeaway: When resistance strengthens with each test rather than weakens, when divergences appear at proven resistance, and when volume hits extremes without price progress, you're witnessing distribution, not accumulation. The escalation pattern suggests this isn't just a top - it's a top with conviction.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by jacesabr_real
2
MSFT Sep 22 TA – “Breaking the Ceiling or Back to the Box?” 1️⃣ Big Picture on the 1-Hour Chart * Price action: Microsoft closed around 517.38, breaking out of a multi-day consolidation. Price ripped above 514.5 and is holding gains just under the next resistance zone. * Key levels: * Resistance: 519.3 → 525 (recent high and call wall) * Support: 514.5 → 510 (former resistance and trendline retest area) * Indicators: * MACD is strong and rising, showing solid bullish momentum. * Stoch RSI is elevated near 87, signaling overbought conditions that could lead to a short pause or pullback. The short-term structure is bullish, but after a sharp pop, MSFT might need to consolidate to build fresh energy. 2️⃣ GEX / Options Flow * Largest call clusters appear around 525 and 540, with notable resistance at 520 already being tested. * Key put support stands at 502.5, with heavier walls near 497.5 and 495. * IVR sits at 7.8—low compared to historical norms—indicating that option premiums remain relatively cheap for quick trades. The options board suggests market makers may try to pin MSFT in the 514–520 area if momentum cools. A decisive close above 520 would shift gamma flows toward 525–530 quickly. 3️⃣ Trading Thoughts & Suggestions * Scalp / day trade: Watch for a sustained push over 519–520 with strong volume. Target 523–525, with a tight stop below 516. * Support bounce: A controlled dip back to 514–515 that holds could provide a fresh long entry. * Fade setup: A quick rejection at 520–523 with heavy selling pressure could send price back to 510–505. 4️⃣ Bottom Line MSFT just broke out of its consolidation box and is testing key resistance. Bulls need a clean break above 520 for another leg higher. Bears want to see a rejection at 520 with a fade back toward 510. Disclaimer: This is just market opinion for educational discussion. It’s not financial advice. Always manage your own risk before trading.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by BullBearInsights
MSFT Trying to Reclaim Momentum – Sept 18 Trade Setup 💡 Here’s my TA look at Microsoft for Wednesday, using the 1-hour chart and GEX options data. 1️⃣ Price Action & Structure * Sideways-to-up channel: MSFT is still within its rising channel but recently pulled back to test the lower boundary near $505. Buyers stepped in, bringing price back to $510. * Key pivot: $510–512.5 is the short-term battleground. A clean hourly close above here would likely target $517.5 next. * Support zone: If $505 breaks, next guardrails are $500 and $497. 2️⃣ GEX (Options Flow) Check * Call magnets: Strong gamma walls cluster at $512.5 and $517.5, with heavier resistance around $525–530. * Put defense: Major put walls stack at $495 and $490, providing a cushion if the market turns. * Low IVR: IVR is only 9.4 with IVx ~23.7—options are on the cheaper side. 3️⃣ Trading Thoughts * Bullish play: If MSFT closes above $512.5, look for a run to $517.5 and maybe $525. Logical stop under $505. * Bearish hedge: Short only if $505 fails. First downside target is $500, then $497. 4️⃣ Option Angles * Upside trade: Call spreads like 510/520 or 510/525 are a defined-risk way to catch a move higher. * Neutral strategy: Selling puts under $495 offers premium if you expect MSFT to hold above major support. 5️⃣ My View Microsoft is still in a healthy structure after last week’s shakeout. If it clears $512.5 with good volume, I’d favor a push to the mid-$520s. A drop under $505, however, flips the script quickly. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational discussion only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage risk before trading.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by BullBearInsights
MSFT - Price ProjectionMSFT made a high on 31/07/2025 at 555 which turned out to be a big bearish engulfing candle. Chart pierced above a long term trendline at 515 to touch 555 and then formed a bull trap and continued its downward journey. Since then, price has been making Lower Highs and Lower Lows. Although it’s still just above SMA50. In the short term, price is likely to kiss a trendline at 522 to 525 before heading downwards. The question is where would I be a buyer? I would inch in to buy for a swing trade at three levels: - my first buy would be at around 450 to 455. This is strong support zone with previous pivot highs hitting this zone. This is also a Fib retracement level of 50% - my second buy would be 425. This a support level, driven from a trendline which has acted as resistance for previous 3 pivot highs. This is also a Fib retracement level of 61.8% at 425.80. There is a gap fill at 422.86 as well - my third buy would be between 395 and 386. This is a strong support level and a confluence of a long term trendline that dates to 2023. There is gap fill at 395.26 and Fib retracement level of 78.6% at 390.75 If stock market really had a strong dump, then my buy level for hodl/long term would be around 320. There is a trendline at this level that dates to 2019. Alternatively, my thesis will be invalid if MSFT close above 555.50.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by I_M_Shoaib
MSFT 1D Time frameMarket Snapshot Current Price: ~$498.41 Daily Change: +0.23 (≈0.05%) Market Cap: ~$2.79 Trillion P/E Ratio: ~28.9 EPS: ~12.93 🔎 Technical Indicators RSI (14-day): ~41 → Neutral, leaning slightly bearish. MACD: –2.7 → Negative but giving a weak buy crossover signal. Williams %R (14-day): ~–74 → Suggests a possible rebound (buy). CCI (14-day): ~–108 → Oversold zone, buy indication. ADX (14-day): ~20.6 → Weak trend strength. ROC (Rate of Change): –3.5 → Mild bearish momentum. 📈 Moving Averages 5-day MA: Below current price → Bearish short-term. 20-day MA: Below current price → Bearish. 50-day MA: ~$509, above price → Acting as resistance. 100-day MA: ~$476, below price → Supportive. 200-day MA: ~$443, below price → Long-term uptrend still intact. 🔧 Support & Resistance Support Zone: ~$491 – $497 Resistance Zone: ~$500 – $510 📅 Outlook Bullish Case: If MSFT climbs above $509–510, momentum could extend toward new highs. Bearish Case: A break below $491 may lead to a pullback toward $480–485. Overall Bias: Neutral to slightly bearish in the short term, but long-term bullish trend remains intact above the 200-day MA.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by LegacyTradingss
MSFT 45Minutes Time frameMSFT 45-Minute Snapshot Metric Value Current Price $498.41 USD Change +0.05% from previous close Market Cap $2.79 Trillion P/E Ratio 28.88 EPS $12.93 🔎 Technical Indicators RSI (14): 40.92 — Neutral MACD: -2.70 — Bearish momentum Moving Averages: 5-period SMA: $502.33 — Sell signal 10-period SMA: $504.10 — Sell signal 20-period SMA: $509.62 — Sell signal 50-period SMA: $509.09 — Sell signal 📈 Market Sentiment Pivot Points: R1: $507.19 R2: $519.38 R3: $526.79 S1: $487.59 S2: $480.18 S3: $467.99 📅 Outlook Bullish Scenario: A breakout above $507.19 could lead to a push toward $519.38 and higher. Bearish Scenario: A drop below $487.59 may test support around $480.18. Overall Bias: Neutral to slightly bearish, with mixed signals from moving averages and momentum indicators.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by ApexSignalszone
MSFT 4Hour Time frameMSFT Snapshot (as of latest session) Current Price: Around $498.40 Day Range: $497.0 – $502.2 Open: ~$501.4 Market Cap: ~$2.79 Trillion P/E Ratio: ~28.9 EPS: ~12.93 Pivot Levels (Daily basis, useful for 4-Hour analysis) Pivot Point: ~$498.9 Resistance Levels: R1: ~$499.5 R2: ~$500.0 R3: ~$500.6 Support Levels: S1: ~$498.4 S2: ~$497.8 S3: ~$497.3 Technical View (4-Hour Frame) Momentum: Price is consolidating near the pivot (~$498–499). Indicators: RSI around 45 → neutral to slightly bearish. MACD negative → bearish bias. Moving Averages (short and long) → leaning bearish. Bias: A breakout above $500 may open short-term upside toward ~$500.6 or higher. If MSFT falls below $498, pullback risk increases toward $497.8 → $497.3. ✅ Conclusion: On the 4-hour timeframe, MSFT is in a neutral-to-bearish phase, stuck around its pivot. Buyers need a clear move above $500 to regain strength; otherwise, it risks drifting lower toward support.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by AlphaChartists
MSFT LongBroader Market Structure (MSFT 15M): Microsoft’s short-term structure shows a clear bearish shift. After printing a high at 511.97, price rolled over, creating a Change of Character (CHoCH) and following through with a Break of Structure (BOS) to the downside at 492.38. This confirmed a shift from bullish momentum into bearish control. The retracement attempts since then have failed to reclaim higher levels, keeping the broader 15M trend tilted bearish for now. Supply and Demand Zones: The nearest demand zone sits around 493–494, where buyers previously stepped in with strength, halting the selloff and producing a temporary bounce. This is a key support area and the likely base for any potential reversal attempt. On the upside, the nearest supply zone lies around 502–503, which is weakly defended at the moment since sellers pushed from there but not with extreme force. Above that, stronger supply levels remain between 515–518 and higher toward 524–526, where price previously dropped sharply, making them more decisive zones of resistance. Price Action in the Marked Region: Currently, price is consolidating just above the lower demand area near 494, suggesting buyers are trying to defend this level. The projection drawn on the chart points to one more dip into demand before a bounce higher toward the mid-supply at 502. The candles show slowing bearish momentum as the push lower has less follow-through, indicating buyers could soon regain control if demand holds. Trade Bias & Outlook: The bias is cautiously bullish for a corrective move higher, with the expectation that price will test demand at 494 before bouncing toward 502. The invalidation level for this outlook is a clean break and close below 492.38, which would confirm sellers remain firmly in control and open the way for deeper downside. Momentum & Candle Behavior: Short-term momentum still leans bearish, but it is weakening as the selloff decelerates near demand. A confirming bullish engulfing or rejection wick from the 493–494 zone would strengthen the bullish bounce case. Without such confirmation, sellers may continue pressing lower.
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by ProSignalai
Microsoft - A very profitable repetition!💰Microsoft ( NASDAQ:MSFT ) just repeats the cycle: 🔎Analysis summary: At this exact moment, Microsoft is once again retesting the upper channel resistance trendline. Following all previous cycles, there is a 100% chance that we will see a short term retracement. Since the trend remains bullish, the all time high break and retest will follow. 📝Levels to watch: $450, $700 SwingTraderPhil SwingTrading.Simplified. | Investing.Simplified. | #LONGTERMVISION
NASDAQ:MSFTLong
by SwingTraderPhilTV
9
The report is good, but there is no stock dynamicsMSFT gapped up at around $555 on the report and reached a market cap of $4.1 trillion This happened because the report significantly exceeded expectations on key metrics The latest quarterly report showed record results. Revenue for the quarter was $76.4 billion (up 18% y/y) Net income was $27.2 billion (up 24% y/y). EPS was $3.65, exceeding analysts' expectations However, the shares are falling and are already below the level they were before the report. Capex was increased to $24.2 billion (up 27% YoY) For fiscal 2026, management forecasts further Capex growth (over $30 billion in Q1 alone) Operating expenses increased 6% YoY due to investments in AI and engineering The company recorded $1.71 billion in other expenses in the quarter, partly related to losses on equity investments (likely in OpenAI) In the call with investors, the company's management warned market participants about further margin compression in the short term and higher-than-expected capital expenditures on AI infrastructure. Accordingly, this raises questions about the future profitability of both the investments themselves and the future results of the company as a whole, which will be released in future reports. Professional investors have begun to change their DCF models in accordance with the new data. From a “tech” perspective, we are seeing weaker dynamics in the broad market. It is clear how the company's comments have broken the up trend that has been observed in recent months. We expect further cooling of sentiment in the stock, the closing of another gap from below and a slide in the price to the $400-420.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by A3MInvestments
3
Market Correlations between US, Europe, and AsiaIntroduction Global financial markets are more connected today than at any other time in history. Advances in technology, international trade, cross-border investments, and geopolitical events have created a web of interdependence between major financial hubs. Among them, the United States, Europe, and Asia dominate global capital flows. The performance of one region’s stock market often ripples through the others, creating a pattern of correlations that traders, policymakers, and economists study closely. This interconnection raises critical questions: How do U.S. markets influence Europe and Asia? What role do European economies play in shaping Asian and American markets? How do Asian giants like China, Japan, and India contribute to the global cycle? In this comprehensive discussion, we will examine the nature of these correlations, their drivers, historical examples, sectoral linkages, and future implications. 1. Understanding Market Correlations 1.1 Definition Market correlation refers to the degree to which the returns of different financial markets move together. A positive correlation means markets rise and fall in the same direction, while a negative correlation implies one rises when the other falls. Correlation is often measured using the correlation coefficient, which ranges from -1 (perfect negative correlation) to +1 (perfect positive correlation). 1.2 Why Correlations Matter Risk management: Investors diversify globally to reduce risk, but high correlations during crises reduce diversification benefits. Policy implications: Central banks and regulators monitor global spillovers to manage domestic stability. Trading strategies: Hedge funds, arbitrageurs, and institutional investors use correlation patterns for cross-market trading. 2. Historical Evolution of Cross-Market Correlations 2.1 Pre-1980s – Limited Linkages Before the 1980s, financial markets were more domestically focused. Capital controls, underdeveloped communication systems, and restricted cross-border trading limited correlations. 2.2 1987 Crash – A Global Wake-Up Call The Black Monday crash of October 1987 showed how U.S. market turmoil could spread worldwide. The Dow Jones fell 22.6% in a single day, and within 48 hours, Europe and Asia experienced severe declines. 2.3 1990s – Globalization of Capital Deregulation of financial markets (e.g., Big Bang in London, reforms in Japan). The rise of multinational corporations. The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 revealed how regional shocks could spread globally. 2.4 2000s – Technology & Capital Flows The Dot-com bubble (2000) and its global consequences. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) originated in the U.S. housing market but triggered recessions across Europe and Asia. Cross-asset contagion became common. 2.5 2010s – Post-Crisis & Policy Coordination Central bank policies (Fed, ECB, BOJ) became closely watched worldwide. Eurozone debt crisis (2010-2012) had ripple effects on U.S. and Asian equities. Emerging markets (India, China, Brazil) became important players. 2.6 2020s – Pandemic & Geopolitics COVID-19 shock: All three regions saw simultaneous sell-offs in March 2020. US-China tensions: Trade wars and sanctions have shaped cross-market linkages. Ukraine War: Europe’s energy crisis affected U.S. inflation and Asia’s commodity prices. 3. Mechanisms of Interconnection 3.1 Trade Linkages U.S. demand drives Asian exports (China, Japan, South Korea). European luxury and industrial goods depend on Asian markets. Supply chain disruptions in Asia directly affect U.S. and European corporations. 3.2 Investment Flows U.S. pension funds, European sovereign wealth funds, and Asian central banks invest across borders. Global ETFs and index funds amplify cross-market flows. 3.3 Currency Markets Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), and Yen (JPY) dominate FX markets. Dollar strength impacts Asian export competitiveness and European debt. 3.4 Interest Rate Policies U.S. Federal Reserve policy often sets the tone for global monetary conditions. European Central Bank and Bank of Japan policies create relative yield opportunities. 3.5 Technology & Trading Hours With overlapping time zones, European markets act as a bridge between Asia’s close and U.S. opening. Algorithmic trading ensures faster transmission of news across markets. 4. U.S.–Europe Correlations 4.1 General Trends The U.S. and Europe often move together due to shared economic fundamentals (consumer demand, multinational firms). Correlations intensify during crises (2008, 2020). 4.2 Sectoral Linkages Banking: U.S. financial shocks transmit quickly to European banks. Energy: European reliance on U.S. shale exports. Tech: NASDAQ performance influences European tech firms (SAP, ASML). 4.3 Case Studies Eurozone Crisis (2010-12): U.S. markets fell on concerns about European sovereign defaults. Brexit (2016): U.S. markets reacted to uncertainty, though less severely than Europe. 5. U.S.–Asia Correlations 5.1 China Factor China’s stock market is less directly correlated due to capital controls, but commodity and trade linkages create indirect effects. U.S.-China trade war (2018–19) caused synchronized declines. 5.2 Japan & South Korea Highly sensitive to U.S. demand for technology and automobiles. Nikkei and KOSPI often mirror Wall Street overnight moves. 5.3 India U.S. monetary policy strongly influences Indian equities and bonds. Rising role of Indian IT exports (Infosys, TCS) ties it to NASDAQ trends. 6. Europe–Asia Correlations 6.1 Trade Integration Europe is a major importer of Asian goods (electronics, automobiles). Asian demand for European luxury and machinery is significant. 6.2 Market Sentiment European opening hours often digest Asian trading signals. Example: A sharp sell-off in Shanghai or Tokyo sets the tone for Europe’s morning session. 6.3 Case Studies 2015 Chinese Stock Market Crash: European equities fell sharply as fears of global slowdown spread. Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Asian markets fell as Europe faced energy shocks. 7. The Role of Global Events in Synchronizing Markets Oil Shocks (1973, 2008, 2022): Impacted Europe’s energy costs, Asia’s import bills, and U.S. inflation. Technology booms: U.S. NASDAQ rallies spread optimism globally. Pandemics & Natural Disasters: COVID-19 proved all three regions can fall together in panic-driven sell-offs. 8. Measuring Market Correlations 8.1 Statistical Methods Correlation Coefficients Cointegration analysis Volatility spillover models (GARCH, VAR) 8.2 Observed Patterns Correlations are time-varying (stronger in crises, weaker in calm periods). Equity correlations have risen steadily since 2000. Bond market correlations are lower but increasing. 9. Benefits and Risks of High Correlation 9.1 Benefits Efficient capital allocation. Faster policy response coordination. Greater investor access to diversification. 9.2 Risks Reduced diversification benefits during crises. Faster contagion effects. Emerging markets more vulnerable to external shocks. 10. Future Outlook 10.1 Decoupling vs. Integration Some argue U.S., Europe, and Asia may decouple as regional blocs form (e.g., BRICS, EU autonomy). However, technology and global capital suggest correlations will remain high. 10.2 Role of Geopolitics U.S.-China tensions may create dual ecosystems. Europe’s energy shift post-Ukraine war could change linkages. 10.3 Technology & AI Algorithmic trading and AI-driven strategies may increase synchronicity. 24/7 crypto markets add another layer of correlation. Conclusion The financial ties between the U.S., Europe, and Asia are a cornerstone of the global economy. While local conditions and policies shape short-term moves, long-term trends show increasing correlations across these regions. For traders, investors, and policymakers, understanding these interconnections is critical for navigating risks and opportunities in a globalized marketplace. Whether it is a Fed rate hike, a European energy crisis, or an Asian export slowdown, the ripple effects are felt across continents almost instantly. The 21st century has transformed financial markets into a global village, where distance no longer insulates economies.
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by GlobalWolfStreet
MSFT Breakdown: Eyeing $456 First Profit TargetOn the 4H chart of Microsoft (MSFT), the overall structure has shifted from bullish to bearish. For several months, MSFT respected a strong upward trendline, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows. This uptrend peaked around the $555 zone, after which sellers started dominating. The sharp rejection near $555, followed by lower highs, marks the beginning of a trend reversal. Currently, the stock trades around the $502 mark, consolidating just below a minor resistance band of $502–$505. This is a critical zone because if the price fails to reclaim this level, sellers will likely push it lower. The chart clearly shows broken momentum from the uptrend, and the downside is now open toward the next demand levels. Support levels are clearly defined: the first significant support is near $456. If broken, the next key zones are at $405 and $376, while $344 would be the deeper downside extension. These levels are aligned with prior accumulation areas where buyers previously stepped in. The bearish case strengthens further given that the stock has failed to bounce convincingly after each sell-off in August, suggesting weak buying interest. The momentum indicators (as seen from price swings) are also tilting toward sellers. 🔽 Bearish Trade Setup (H4 MSFT) • Entry Zone: $500–$505 (current rejection area) • Stop Loss: Above $522 (last breakdown level) • Target 1: $456.17 • Target 2: $405.57 • Target 3 (extended): $376.91 Managing the trade is just as important as the entry. Once the first target at $456 is achieved, partial profit booking is advisable. Closing 30–40% of the position there reduces exposure while still keeping you in the trend. At this stage, the stop-loss should be adjusted to breakeven ($500), eliminating risk on the remaining position. As price approaches deeper levels like $405 and $376, trailing stops should be moved down above each recent swing high on the 4H chart. This trailing stop technique ensures that profits are locked in while still allowing room for the trend to continue. If MSFT shows strong momentum and breaks below $405 with conviction, the path toward $376 and potentially $344 becomes very realistic. In such extended moves, aggressive trailing stops help capture as much of the move as possible without exposing capital unnecessarily. In summary, MSFT has transitioned into a bearish phase on the H4 timeframe. A short position around the $500–$505 rejection zone provides a strong risk-to-reward trade setup. With partial profit booking at support levels and disciplined trailing stops, the bearish move can be capitalized on while protecting gains throughout the trend.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by SupertradeOfficial
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