Trade ideas
$APP Long Setup – Bullish Reversal Attempt off Key SupportApplovin ( NASDAQ:APP ) is attempting to base and reverse off the lower range of its cloud structure after a sharp pullback from highs above $400. Price is holding just under the cloud but showing early signs of curling higher. Despite bearish MACD pressure, momentum is beginning to decelerate, and a bounce here could offer strong upside.
Current setup offers a 2.83 risk/reward:
Entry: $341.03
Stop: $308.00 (below recent low)
Target: $434.44 (back to breakdown zone)
This is a countertrend play unless the price can reclaim and hold above the cloud. If it clears $360–$370 with volume, it opens the door to $400+. For now, this is a speculative long with a tight invalidation point and plenty of upside.
Are you buying this bounce or waiting for trend confirmation?
APP Weekly Trade Plan – June 20, 2025🟥 APP Weekly Trade Plan – June 20, 2025
🎯 Instrument: APP (Applovin Corp)
📉 Direction: Bearish (Put)
📅 Expiry: 2025-06-20
📊 Confidence Level: 65%
⏰ Entry Timing: Market Open
🔎 Model Consensus Breakdown
Model Direction Summary
Grok/xAI 🔻 Bearish Clear bearish momentum. Recommends $325 put.
Claude ⚠️ No Trade Mixed signals; confidence below 50%.
Gemini 🔻 Bearish Recommends $322.50 put based on RSI/VIX.
Llama ⚠️ No Trade Slightly bearish but low conviction.
DeepSeek 🔼 Bullish Contrarian call ($327.50) against oversold bounce.
🧠 Consensus Takeaway
✅ Most models agree APP is under bearish pressure on the daily chart.
⚠️ Mixed signals emerge due to oversold RSI and elevated VIX (~20.31).
🧨 Watch for short squeezes or rebound attempts off key support ($325–$327).
✅ Recommended Trade (Put Option)
Metric Value
🎯 Strike $325 Put
💰 Entry Price $0.75 (limit)
🛑 Stop Loss $0.38
🎯 Profit Target $0.975+
📈 Confidence 65%
📏 Size 1 contract
📅 Expiry June 20, 2025
💡 This trade bets on short-term continuation lower, possibly breaking $325 support.
⚠️ Risk Management Notes
VIX at 20+ increases whipsaw risk — limit order strongly recommended.
Oversold RSI could lead to a dead-cat bounce.
Respect the stop-loss if APP rebounds above $327 intraday.
🧾 TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
json
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Edit
{
"instrument": "APP",
"direction": "put",
"strike": 325.0,
"expiry": "2025-06-20",
"confidence": 0.65,
"profit_target": 0.975,
"stop_loss": 0.38,
"size": 1,
"entry_price": 0.75,
"entry_timing": "open",
"signal_publish_time": "2025-06-20 15:21:16 UTC-04:00"
}
AppLovin - the Shoulders – But Not the Breakdown!🟢 Head and Shoulders Pattern (Bearish)
* The price action is forming a left shoulder , a higher peak (head) , and a right shoulder .
* This classical pattern often signals a reversal from bullish to bearish.
* The dotted orange neckline marks the potential support – if broken, it could trigger a sharper decline.
📉 Key Technical Zones
* Neckline Support: Around $309 . A breakdown below this level may confirm the pattern.
* Previous Support : In case of a breakdown, next strong support lies near $100–110 (long-term zone).
* Upside Scenario : If neckline holds and bullish momentum resumes, the pattern could be invalidated with a breakout over $400 .
📊 MACD Divergence
* MACD shows a bearish divergence (higher price highs vs. lower MACD highs), signaling momentum weakness .
* The histogram is turning red again – a bearish sign.
* A bearish crossover has already occurred, supporting a possible downtrend.
🔄 Possible Scenarios
* Bearish : If neckline breaks → possible drop toward the $200s or lower.
* Neutral : Consolidation between $310–$380.
* Bullish : If price bounces before neckline and breaks above $400 → invalidates pattern.
AppLovin Corporation (APP) – Rewiring Ad Tech with AI at ScaleCompany Snapshot:
AppLovin NASDAQ:APP is shedding its legacy gaming identity and emerging as a pure-play AI advertising infrastructure leader. Post its $900M gaming unit divestiture, the company is laser-focused on AXON 2.0, its next-gen AI ad engine, positioning APP as one of the most transformative players in the digital ad ecosystem.
🚀 Key Growth Drivers:
🧠 AXON 2.0 – AI-Powered Programmatic Ad Platform
Delivers real-time ad bidding with predictive optimization
Retail and eCommerce verticals seeing rapid adoption
Scalable infrastructure = operating leverage + high margin tailwinds
🛠️ Self-Serve & GenAI Expansion
Self-serve ad tools on the roadmap = democratizing access for SMBs
Generative AI ad creatives enable fast, customized campaigns at scale
Broadens TAM beyond top-tier advertisers to long-tail marketers
💰 High-Margin, Asset-Light Model
Post-divestiture, APP’s margins are structurally higher
Lean, software-first model with strong unit economics and cash generation
Flexibility for buybacks, R&D, or strategic M&A
📊 Market Positioning & Flywheel
Network effects: More advertisers = better data = smarter bidding
Competes with The Trade Desk, Google DV360, and Meta in ad optimization
First-mover advantage in mobile AI bidding infrastructure
📈 Financial & Strategic Highlights:
Q/Q margin expansion amid rising advertiser retention
Structural cost improvements post-gaming spinout
Potential for SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B + in annualized EBITDA as AI scaling accelerates
🧭 Investment Outlook:
✅ Bullish Above: $255.00–$260.00
🚀 Upside Target: $520.00–$525.00
🎯 Thesis: AppLovin is evolving into the NVIDIA of mobile ad tech—using proprietary AI infrastructure to reshape programmatic advertising. With high-margin growth, expanding use cases, and a clear product vision, APP is a top-tier AI advertising compounder.
#AppLovin #APP #AdTech #AXON #AIAdvertising #Programmatic #DigitalMarketing #GrowthStock
Longs should be careful with this one.boost and follow for more! 🔥
could push to 359-416 short term before it tops out, from risk reward perspective theres much better options in this market.
I personally wouldn't chase this one to the upside with so many options out there, big money may think the same and sell it off. Id be a buyer at trend support or near it.
APPLOVIN’S Q4 2024—$APP BLASTS OFF WITH AI-AD SURGEAPPLOVIN’S Q4 2024— NASDAQ:APP BLASTS OFF WITH AI-AD SURGE
(1/9)
Good evening, Tradingview! AppLovin’s Q4 2024 earnings hit—$1.37B revenue, up 44% YoY, crushing $1.26B estimates 📈🔥. AI-powered AXON drives a 37% stock pop. Let’s unpack NASDAQ:APP ’s monster quarter! 🚀
(2/9) – REVENUE & EARNINGS
• Q4 Revenue: $1.37B, +44% YoY ($953.3M Q4 ‘23) 💥
• Ad Revenue: $999.5M, +73% YoY
• Apps Revenue: $373.3M, -1% YoY 📊
• EPS: $1.73, beats $1.24 est.
• Net Income: $599.2M, +248% YoY
(3/9) – BIG MOVES
• Stock Surge: +37% post-earnings (Feb 13) 🌍
• Buybacks: $2.1B retired 25.7M shares in ‘24 🚗
• Debt Play: $3.55B notes issued Nov ‘24 💸
• Q1 ‘25 Guide: $1.355-1.385B, tops $1.32B est.
(4/9) – SECTOR SHOWDOWN
• Market Cap: $175B (Feb 13) 🌟
• Trailing P/E: 116 vs. TTD (50), META (33)
• Growth: 44% YoY beats TTD (26%), META (19%)
• 1Y Stock: +1,000%, 2Y: +3,000%
Premium price, growth screams value!
(5/9) – RISKS TO FLAG
• Valuation: 116 P/E—high stakes, no misses 📉
• Debt: $3.51B vs. $567.6M cash—leverage looms ⚠️
• AI Rivals: Google, Meta eye AXON’s turf 🏛️
• Regs & Economy: Ad spend cuts lurk
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS
• Growth: 44% revenue, $599M profit soars 🌟
• Margins: 62% EBITDA, $2.1B FCF in ‘24 🔍
• AXON: 73% ad surge—AI’s the champ 🚦
NASDAQ:APP ’s a profit powerhouse!
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES
• Weaknesses: Apps dip (-1%), $3.51B debt 💸
• Opportunities: E-commerce ads, AI edge, acquisitions 🌍
Can NASDAQ:APP turn risks into riches?
(8/9) – NASDAQ:APP ’s Q4 stuns—where’s it headed?
1️⃣ Bullish—AI keeps it soaring.
2️⃣ Neutral—Growth holds, risks balance.
3️⃣ Bearish—Valuation bites back.
Vote below! 🗳️👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY
AppLovin’s Q4 dazzles—$1.37B revenue, $599M profit, stock blazing 🌍🪙. High P/E, but AI growth shines. Debt and rivals loom—gem or peak?
AppLovin (APP) AnalysisCompany Overview:
AppLovin NASDAQ:APP is a mobile marketing leader, providing developers with tools for user acquisition, ad optimization, and analytics. The company also benefits from its owned apps, such as Monopoly GO!, which contribute 30% of its revenue.
Key Catalysts:
AI-Driven Revenue Expansion 🤖
AI plays a pivotal role in AppLovin’s success, driving 80% of its revenue growth. This AI advantage helps optimize user engagement and ad targeting, boosting overall platform efficiency.
Mobile Gaming Growth 🎮
The mobile gaming industry is projected to grow at an 8% annual rate through 2027, positioning AppLovin to benefit as a key player in game monetization and marketing solutions.
E-Commerce Ad Expansion 🛒
AppLovin’s new e-commerce ad pilot could generate FWB:30M -$50M in Q4 2024, with a self-service platform launch in mid-2025 targeting the $200B+ global e-commerce ad market.
Analyst Confidence 📊
Oppenheimer has reiterated its Outperform rating, with a $480 price target, citing AppLovin’s earnings potential, robust ad revenue streams, and growing monetization avenues.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Case: We are bullish on APP above the $380.00-$400.00 range, supported by AI adoption, ad growth, and entry into e-commerce advertising.
Upside Potential: Our price target is $650.00-$670.00, reflecting AppLovin’s potential to expand its revenue base across multiple high-growth sectors.
📢 AppLovin—Driving Innovation in Mobile Advertising and Game Monetization. #AppMarketing #AI #MobileGaming
What I'm doing with APPSo I had call options into the earnings 🥳 , here's my plan... $584 Should act as resistance or potential future support. That's why I'm going to close them there. That protects those options for a potential pullback to $417. If instead Applovin breaks above resistance I'll look for a pullback to consolidate back into the $584 support and get long once again.
Good luck!






















