MRM – Day-2 Short After Retail Exhaustion Thesis
Friday’s +100%+ gap with ~65M volume vs ~4M avg suggests retail dollar-flow exhaustion. Price rejected below PMH ≈ 6.76 and faded all day into the close. I’m looking for a Day-2 continuation short. I prefer a pop into resistance (blue path) for better R:R; if no pop, a direct fade (red path) is still valid with lighter size.
Key Levels (from the chart)
6.76 – PMH (line in the sand; above = no short bias).
4.32 – upper supply zone / invalidation for aggressive entries.
3.61 – 2.94 – prior resistance / Friday close area (prime fade zone).
2.50 – 2.31 – intraday support band / VWAP zone to watch.
1.52 – 1.51 – target zone if trend extends.
Blue (Preferred) – Pop then Fail
Plan
Wait for a push into 3.00–3.60 (ideally a wick above 2.94) with VWAP rejection or lower-high under that band.
Entry: on rejection candle close or break back below VWAP after the fake push.
Stop: above the pop high or 4.32 (hard stop).
Targets: 2.50 → 2.31 → 1.52–1.51 (scale out on the way).
Rationale: Better R:R, traps late longs, aligns with Day-2 continuation.
Red (Alternate) – No Pop, Straight Fade
Plan
If open is weak and VWAP cannot be reclaimed, take the LOD break or VWAP fail-retest.
Stop: above VWAP or last lower-high.
Targets: 2.31 → 1.52–1.51.
Note: Start smaller size; add only on clean lower-highs.
Trade Management
Size small on the first entry; add only after confirmation (lower-high or VWAP fail).
If price reclaims and holds above 4.32 or reclaims PMH 6.76, abort the short idea.
Avoid shorting front-side momentum; let it prove weakness first.
Why This Works (Stats Angle)
Massive Dollar Volume (Price × Volume) vs micro-cap suggests retail-flow ceiling hit → high probability of next-day fade.
PMH rejection confirms front-side exhaustion; Day-2 moves often resolve toward prior base.
Checklist Before Entry
Extended hours ON; mark PMH 6.76.
VWAP anchored; watch reactions at 2.94–3.60.
No fresh high-quality catalyst at the open.
Spreads/halts manageable; borrow available.
Disclosure: Educational only. I may trade this; risk your own plan.
