Palantir is a cult? Ticker: NYSE:PLTR
Current Price: $173
Market Cap: $380B+
P/S: 116x
P/E: 500x+ trailing, 234x forward
Bear Thesis:
Palantir is now trading at a level that makes even Nvidia look cheap. This is a classic parabolic AI play driven by retail FOMO, not by fundamentals. The company needs to maintain 30%+ annual growth for years just to justify today’s valuation. One miss, and the whole tower comes down.
Problems:
1. Valuation is insane, far above anything justified by cashflow or realistic comps. DCF and sum-of-parts models put fair value between $20 and $30. That’s up to 85% downside from here.
2. Analyst average price target sits at $108. Plenty call for $40–$75 if growth stalls or the hype fades.
3. Heavy reliance on US government deals. Any cut to defense budgets, a change in admin, or a headline scandal and half their contracts can disappear.
4. Competition is coming hard. Google, Amazon, Microsoft all pushing enterprise AI. Palantir’s moat is shrinking.
5. Stock acts like a meme: options-fueled squeezes, no connection to cashflow. If market sentiment turns risk-off, these multiples get crushed.
What could trigger the unwind:
• Any earnings miss, weak guidance, or margin compression
• Defense budget cuts or bad headlines
• AI trade rotation or a macro correction targeting high-flyers
• Commercial growth disappoints
Bear Targets:
• $108: analyst average (still aggressive)
• $40–$75: if narrative breaks, AI hype dies, or execution slips
• $20–$30: where most bear DCFs cluster, fair value based on realistic growth
Bottom Line:
PLTR is pricing in perfection in a market that rarely delivers it. If you’re long here, you’re paying tomorrow’s prices for today’s story. This is one of the most crowded trades in AI right now, and history says these always end the same way. Protect your capital.
