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Natural Gas Shows Signs of Bullish Wave CompletionNatural Gas Shows Signs of Bullish Wave Completion Natural gas is struggling to drop below 2.92, which could mean the current bullish wave is coming to an end. Since NG is moving in a clear correction, we might be in the 5th wave—this could either be the start of a larger bullish move or part of a corrective pattern. Looking at how the price has moved in the past, I believe it's more likely that a bullish wave is forming and could continue into next week. For now, I’m watching two short-term targets at 3.23 and 3.37. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by KlejdiCuni
13
Natural Gas XNG: Trend Reversal or Just a Retracement?Natural Gas (XNG) has been trending bearish 🔻, but we’re now witnessing a bullish market structure shift ⚡— particularly visible on the 4H timeframe ⏱️. At present, price is overextended and pressing into a key resistance zone 📈🧱. I’m watching closely for a retracement back into equilibrium 🔄 within the previous price swing. This could offer a short-term scalp or day trade short setup 🎯. Should price hold firm at support after the pullback 🛑, we could then begin building a bullish bias and look for long opportunities 📊— depending on how price action develops from there. 🚨 This is not financial advice.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by fxtraderanthony
U.S. Hot temperature boosted natural gas prices. For how long?U.S. Hot temperature boosted natural gas prices. For how long? U.S. natural gas futures rose ~2% August 6 due to near-record LNG export flows and forecasts of hotter-than-normal weather through late August, boosting air conditioning demand and gas use by power plants (over 40% of U.S. electricity). Despite a hot summer, record production has kept gas stockpiles ~6% above normal, with storage likely to grow further. Technically, price seems to form bullish wedge since mid - August. Price successfully tested the level of 3.0000, still can go on a retest of this level soon once again before some mid-term bullish momentum occurs. Additionally, according to seasonals, since the second half of the august, natural gas prices go bullish due to the beginning of the shoulder season.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by ProfessorSingapore
LNG Outlook: Supply-Demand Differential Dropped Below the MedianThis analysis was prepared by Dr. Igor Isaev in cooperation with Anastasia Volkova, LSE analyst. Current prices vs. price spread 10 days before expiration by month since 2010 (The top left graph) Contract U is trading at the same level as the average price 10 days before expiration for all expired contracts over the previous 15 years. The futures prices of the Fall 2025 contracts are trading even closer to the median values on the expiration date, while remaining within the interquartile range. Prices of the 2026 and 2027 Winter contracts are declining but have not yet broken through the upper quartile values.  Current forward curve vs. 2020-2024 (The top graph in the middle) Although the 3-year delivery contract prices as of 2025 have approached the levels of similar 2023 and 2024 contracts, a pronounced forward curve skew remains in the near-term (1-2 years) and distant (5-6 years) delivery segments.  Current inventory and forecast for next week compared to 2019-2024 (The top right graph) For week 31 (July 28 —August 03), we expect a +16 BCF gain in storage. The fill rate is confidently holding above the median for the preceding 5 years. Injection rates maintain positive dynamics. If the current supply and demand balance stabilizes, reaching levels similar to 2024 peak values is possible. The weather and seasonal phenomena of late summer — early fall remain a restraining factor.   Weekly HDD+CDD total from current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks comparing 1994-2024 (The lower left graph) In the current, 32nd week, the weather is holding steady, reflecting the average values from observations over the past 30 years. Although the seasonal peak HDD+CDD has almost passed, next week (33) is forecast to have significantly above average HDD+CDD values. Explanation of the chart: candles represent quantiles for 30 years from 1994 to 2024. Red dots 2024, green 2025, blue prediction 2025. Weekly HDD+CDD total from current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024 by region (The lower graph in the middle) Looking by region, we see elevated HDD+CDD at week 33 in almost all regions. Weekly cumulative supply/demand differentials compared to 2014-2024 (The lower right graph) In the current 32nd week, the supply-demand differential has fallen below the median, almost to the edge of the lower interquartile range. On the demand side, we see a strong decline in consumption by power generation and a recovery in LNG exports. On the supply side, production continues to grow, but imports from Canada have dropped.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by igorisaev
Natural Gas Prices Fall to Yearly LowNatural Gas Prices Fall to Yearly Low Analysing the chart on 22 July, we constructed a descending channel and assumed that natural gas prices would continue to form a bearish market structure of lower highs and lower lows. Since then, the market has declined by almost 10%. As the XNG/USD chart shows today, natural gas prices are hovering around the psychological level of $3.000/MMBtu. Earlier this week, gas was trading around $2.940/MMBtu — the lowest level of 2025. According to media reports, the price decline is driven by both high production levels and favourable weather forecasts for August, the hottest month of the year. What might happen next? Technical Analysis of the XNG/USD Chart We have updated the descending channel, taking into account the recent fluctuations in natural gas prices. The chart shows that bearish momentum remains intact — the rise from point B to C appears to be a corrective rebound within the prevailing downward trend, with the following developments: → point C formed in the 0.5–0.618 area, which corresponds to classic Fibonacci retracement levels following the A→B impulse; → the former support at 0.365 has now become resistance. Bulls may hope that the current sentiment could shift following tomorrow’s natural gas storage report (scheduled for 17:30 GMT+3). A drop in inventories could potentially trigger a bullish impulse on the XNG/USD chart. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XNGUSD
by FXOpen
Supply surplus pressure XNG price despite demand increaseFundamental: Natural gas (XNGUSD) continued its decline, driven by high storage levels and surplus supply. Despite a 6.8% increase in demand for the week ending 30 Jul, the daily average supply surplus remained at 3.6 bln cubic feet, boosting underground working storage capacity to near the five-year average high. The persistent supply surplus could exert further downward pressure on natural gas prices. Technical: The price remains within the descending channel. Unless broken decisively, trend favors lower prices. If the RSI hits oversold and the price breaks $2.91, the next target could be testing the long-term support at $1.85. Reversal would require a break and close above the descending channel and above clustered EMAs, ideally crossing $3.07 (EMA50) and $3.16 (EMA100). MACD bullish cross with RSI rising above 50 would confirm a potential upward momentum. Price may oscillate between current support ($2.91) and resistance ($3.16-$3.30) if volume and volatility remain low, consolidating before the next major move.
FXOPEN:XNGUSDShort
by WiseLeoTrading
Natural Gas is in the Buying DirectionHello Traders In This Chart NATGAS HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today NATGAS analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (NATGAS market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on NATGAS Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASLong
by ForexMasters2000
1
Sell NATGAS into OCT/NOVNatalie has fromed a H&S and has broke through all of the supporting EMAs leading to most of the indicators turning bearish. My approach for the forseeable is seeling bounces until the winter season approaches. Of course Natalie is extremely susceptible to trend changes due to economical data and has to be monitored closely. Currenlty I'm a bear. Only selling once it breaks and retests, where I will once again reasses based on economics such as storage, production, imports and demand. Target around $2.5 where interestingly a gap (red rectangle) sits from Nov - 24. Elliot Wave (although not a great fan) kind of aligns as well as the 0.786 fib level which began forming at the beginning of 2024. Storage | Volatility | Price Outlook U.S. natural gas markets are stabilizing as volatility trends back toward seasonal norms. 📉 Volatility has dropped from 81% in Q4 2024 to 69% in mid-2025 🏪 Storage is currently at 3,075 Bcf, 🔻 4.7% lower YoY 🔺 5.9% higher than the 5-year average 🚢 LNG exports remain strong—up 22% YoY and 74% above the 5-year average 🔌 Domestic demand is seasonally weaker but steady ➡️ Despite being below last year’s levels, storage surplus vs. the 5-year average acts as a soft ceiling on price. ➡️ Historical analogs suggest a fair value range between $2.50–$3.20/MMBtu in the short term. 📊 Current price action around $3.00–$3.40 looks slightly overheated unless a fresh catalyst emerges (heatwave, export spike, etc.). 🧭 Watching for: Injection trends over the next few weeks Cooling demand in power sector Resistance around $3.40 Support near $2.80
OANDA:NATGASUSDShort
by SkyTrees
2
Natural Gas Rebounds from Key SupportNatural gas has bounced off its strong support level and is showing signs of upward movement, particularly evident on the hourly chart. Dips are being bought up, with the price quickly returning to previous levels. Downsides: The downtrend is still in place (though it may potentially be broken), and there's a relatively long stop-loss below yesterday’s candle low at 2.98. 📝Trading Plan Entry: buying gold at the current level Stop Loss: 2.98 Target: 3.36, 3.62, and 4.20.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by kventinka
U.S. NATURAL GAS SUCCESSFULLY REBOUNDED FROM FIRM SUPPORT.U.S. NATURAL GAS SUCCESSFULLY REBOUNDED FROM FIRM SUPPORT. Yesterday the natural gas storage report came out higher than expected. U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 48 billion cubic feet last week to 3,123 Bcf, increasing the surplus over the five-year average to 195 Bcf from 171 Bcf the week before, the EIA reports. The storage increase was bigger than the 24 Bcf average for the week, and above the 36 Bcf estimate. However, the price rised on 2.35% afterwards, supported by increased volume, which indicates the strength of the level. The upward movement towards the 3.3000 level is highly expected. Additionally, seasonals suggest us that current prices may become the lowest till the end of the year. Historically, since August the natural gas prices increase in anticipation of a new heating season and higher energy demand (pic2).
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by ProfessorSingapore
Natural Gas Bullish Reversal...Are the Lows in?U.S. natural gas inventories increased by 48 billion cubic feet last week to 3,123 Bcf, increasing the surplus over the five-year average. Consensus / forecast was 37Billion Cubic feet. Despite a much higher build than expected Nat gas saw positive price action. This appears to simply be a dead cat bounce before we go lower. A death cross on the daily chart has occurred. This signal often results in a small bounce before going lower.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Trading-Capital
2
LNG and Weather Factors: We Expect Moderate Storage IncreaseThe natural gas market enters Week 31 with a sense of equilibrium, as prices hold steady and storage levels continue to climb. The expiration of Contract Q aligned with the 15-year median, while Contract U trades near the median, and 2025 fall contracts remain within the interquartile range, slightly above median levels. However, Winter 2026-27 contracts persist above the upper quartile, hinting at lingering supply and weather concerns. A projected 39 BCF storage increase for Week 30 (July 21-27) keeps inventories above the five-year median, supported by robust injection rates. Yet, a sharp rise in the supply-demand differential, driven by increased power generation and industrial consumption, signals evolving market dynamics as LNG exports dip. Weather stabilization and regional trends further shape this outlook, which we explore in detail below. Current prices compared to price dispersion 10 days before expiration by month since 2010 The expiration of contract Q was in line with the median for the last 15 years. Contract U is trading close to the median. The prices of subsequent contracts have not changed significantly. The 2025 fall contracts are trading slightly above the median values on the expiration date, while remaining within the interquartile range. The 2026 and 2027 winter contracts continue to be above the upper quartile. Forward curve compared to 2020-2024 (Lower graph on the right) Despite the fact that prices for 2025 contracts with delivery in three years have approached the levels of similar contracts for 2023 and 2024, there remains a pronounced skew in the forward curve in segments with the nearest (1–2 years) and most distant (5–6 years) deliveries. Current stocks and forecast for next week compared to 2019-2024 For week 30 (July 21-27), we expect an increase in storage of 39 BCF. The fill rate remains firmly above the median for the previous five years. Injection rates are maintaining positive momentum. If the current supply and demand conditions remain unchanged, peak levels similar to those seen in 2024 are possible. Weather and seasonal phenomena in the second half of summer and early fall remain a limiting factor. Weekly HDD+CDD total based on current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024 In the current week 31, despite expectations of HDD+CDD growth, the weather stabilized and reached the 30-year median. The following week (32) is forecast to be at the median level. The seasonal peak in weather has practically passed, and a decrease in HDD+CDD values is expected going forward. (The graph on the left) Explanation of the graph: the candles represent quantiles for 30 years from 1994 to 2024. Red dots represent 2024, green dots represent 2025, and blue dots represent the 2025 forecast. Weekly HDD+CDD total based on current NOAA data and forecast for the next two weeks compared to 1994-2024 by region (The graph at top right) Looking at the regional breakdown, we can see moderate HDD+CDD levels in weeks 31-32 in virtually all regions except WS CENTRAL and MOUNTAIN. Weekly total supply/demand difference compared to 2014-2024 In the current 31st week, the difference between supply and demand rose sharply above the median. With a slight decline in LNG exports, consumption for power generation and industrial production rose sharply.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by igorisaev
XNGUSD CONTINUES ITS DOWNWARD TREND. FOR HOW LONG?XNGUSD CONTINUES ITS DOWNWARD TREND. FOR HOW LONG? Recent bearish impulse started at the beginning of this week may come to an end soon. Yesterday the U.S. Natural Gas Storage report came out. Numbers appeared to be lower than expected and lower than previous. (23b vs 28b vs 46b). This is bullish signal for the market participants. Minutes after the report came out, market reacted bullish, however, soon price went sideways. Right now gas prices continue to decline. Still, the opportunity for short-sellers here is quite limited. Not so far below there is a level of 3.0000, form where I expect the price to rebound, supposedly to a 3.3000.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by ProfessorSingapore
3
NATURAL GAS REACHED THE KEY SUPPORT LEVEL. WHERE TO GO NEXT?NATURAL GAS REACHED THE KEY SUPPORT LEVEL. WHERE TO GO NEXT? XNGUSD has come to a crucial support level of 3.0000. Although the sentiment here stays as quite bearish (seasonally, August is not the perfect month for natgas buyers), we expect the price to rebound from the level of 3.0000 towards 3.3000 first. Afterwards, the continuation of bearish trend is expected with final target of 2.6000 before cold season beginning.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by ProfessorSingapore
Wedge Pattern — A Key to Trend Movements📐 Wedge Pattern — A Key to Trend Movements 📈 🔍 Introduction The Wedge is a chart pattern that represents a phase of directional consolidation following a trending move. It can act as a continuation 🔄 or a reversal 🔃 signal, depending on the context. The structure consists of two converging trendlines, both sloping in the same direction. 🧩 Pattern Description Unlike the Flag pattern 🚩, the Wedge has no flagpole and doesn’t depend on the direction of the previous move. The direction of the wedge body determines its type: A falling wedge ⬇️ is bullish 🟢 (buy signal) A rising wedge ⬆️ is bearish 🔴 (sell signal) The breakout is the key point to watch. The two trendlines slope in the same direction but at different angles, causing them to converge. This reflects a loss of momentum ⚠️ and typically indicates that buyers or sellers are preparing to take control. This pattern can act as: A continuation signal 🧭 — appearing at the end of a correction A reversal signal 🔄 — forming at the end of a strong trend 📉 Volume is usually low during the wedge and rises on breakout. A low-volume breakout increases the risk of a false breakout ❗. Often, price retests the breakout level 🔁, giving traders a second chance to enter. 🎯 Entry & Stop-Loss Strategy 📥 Entry: On breakout confirmation 🛑 Stop-loss: Below the pattern’s low (bullish) or above its high (bearish), or under/above the most recent local swing point 🎯 Target: Project the height of the widest part of the wedge from the breakout point. Alternatively, use key price levels 📊 or a trailing stop 🔂 to lock in profits. 💡 My Pro Tips for Trading the Wedge ✅ Pattern Criteria Two converging trendlines ➡️➕➡️ Clearly defined structure ✏️ Prior trending move before the wedge 🚀 Low volume within the wedge 📉, high volume on breakout 📈 Retest of breakout level = confirmation 🔁 🔥 Factors That Strengthen the Signal Breakout on strong volume 📊💥 Appears after an extended trend 🧭📉📈 More touches = stronger pattern ✍️ Breakout occurs close to the apex 🎯 ⚠️ Factors That Weaken the Signal Low volume on breakout 😐 Poorly defined trendlines 🫥 Few touches on lines Early breakout (too far from apex) ⏱️ No prior trend / appears in a range-bound market 📏 ✅ Examples of My Successful Wedge Trades 📸 ❌Examples of Failed Wedge Overview 💥 💬 Do you use the wedge pattern in your trading? It’s a powerful pattern, especially when confirmed by volume and market structure. Share your favorite wedge setups or ask questions below 👇👇
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASEducation
by ProfessorSingapore